2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday December 12^th, 2024 8:15pm

Los Angeles Rams (7-6), (7-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (6-7), (5-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS                              LAR+2 ½  

LW, who thought LAR would come out like they did @HOME vs BUFF? I certainly didn’t and thought that BUFF would continue their winning ways and stomp LAR who barely beat NO the week before. Well, LAR played a tremendous game on OFF scoring 5tds & 2fgs on OFF while returning a block punt for a td. But the DEF for LAR did give up 6tds in return to BUFF which should be of concern to LAR HC Sean McVay. This game did come down to the wire and hinged on the fact that BUFF used a timeout to secure a td, thereby not having enough timeouts to force LAR into a possible punting situation. LAR held on for a 44-42 win. Last week, SF @HOME took care of an already beaten down CHI team. After CHI almost pulled out a victory @DET, I liked CHI +6 to keep this one close. But, with a new CHI HC who was new to the whole scheme, CHI looked lost and SF rolled to 38-13 win. SF TE George Kittle was unstoppable with 6catches for 151yds. SF QB Brock Purdy passed for 20/25 for 325yds &2tds with 0turnovers. SF was leading 24-0 at the half and CHI had no answers. Even with a beat up team SF was way dominant over CHI. L17 LAR @SF, LAR 5-1-1 SU & 7-10 ATS. L35 LAR vs SF , LAR 10-24-1 SU & 15-20 ATS. L25 LAR vs SF, LAR 10-15 ATS. L11 LAR vs SF, LAR 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS. L15 SF vs LAR, DOG 10-5 ATS. LAR 9-8 ATS AWAY on TNF. LAR 8-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. LAR 12-14 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAR 30-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 32-26 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 32-46 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 3-9 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SUATS win. LAR 2-9 ATS off BB SU wins vs <.500opp w/revenge. LAR 6-0 ATS L6 as a conf DOG vs opp off DD SU win. SF 7-9 ATS on TNF. SF 3-6 ATS on TNF off SU win. SF 9-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. SF 25-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 37-31-1 @HOME in DEC. SF 42-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 8-2 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SUATS win. SF 9-1 ATS @HOME vs .500>conf opp. SF 6-0 ATS L6 vs opp off SU DOG win. Both teams are coming off wins. However, LAR’s win is more impressive than SF’s win. No one expected LAR to beat BUFF. While everyone expected SF to beat CHI. For SF, I give a so what. For LAR, I give a great game played. Where has this team been all season? But one concern with the LAR win was the DEF was almost non-existent. Granted they were playing BUFF QB Josh Allen who can beat you many ways. But LAR didn’t make any stops in the 4^th qtr and let BUFF get back in this game and turn it into a nail biter. SF has a lot of talent. A lot of the players have been banged up this season and that is a BIG part of the reason why this team is 6-7. LAR always plays SF tough. These teams have a rivalry going back many years. LAR has a chance to take the division and get into the playoffs while SF looks to get healthy every week. LAR’s schedule after this game is @NYJ, vs ARZ & vs SEA. SF’s schedule is @MIA, vs DET & ARZ. SF’s schedule is much tougher than LAR’s. The game vs DET will be brutal because of the revenge factor. MIA is looking to get into the playoffs so that will be tough too. Plus, if ARZ still has a shot in the last week, they will give it their all as well. LAR’s map could be settled by other teams going forward so that LAR’s opponents have nothing to play for but LAR has to keep winning. They can have no let down. For this game though LAR can’t take the foot off the pedal from playing BUFF. The OFF has to stay at a high level because there are guys on the SF DEF that can derail an opposing OFF with 1play. LAR has to be smart and use some of the plays that they used vs BUFF with a little tweaking. For SF, they need health and cohesiveness. I like LAR but the DEF for LAR need step up and create some turnovers. These teams met in wk 3 @LAR with LAR winning 27-24. In that game, SF jumped out to a 14-0 lead and had a 24-14 lead in the 4^th qtr before LAR fought back with 1td & 2fgs to win the game at the buzzer, 27-24. I like LAR’s chances in this game because SF may they think they have false hope after beating a very bad CHI team. SF also lost their 3^rd string RB Isaac Guerendo to an injury. He is listed as questionable but, on a short week that is usually doubtful. Look for LAR, barring turnovers to win this game.      

THE PICK: LAR+2 ½  

Sunday December 15^th, 2024 1:00pm

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1), (4-8-1) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (3-11), (4-9) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS           CLEV+4

LW, I didn’t think that CLEV+6 ½ would win @PITT. I just figured that they would keep it close. CLEV didn’t and it was all PITT in this game with PITT leading 27-7 in the 4^th qtr. CLEV QB Jameis Winston had 2INTs that led to 7pts for PITT and CLEV missed 2fgs. Not a good day overall for CLEV but a good day for PITT. CLEV had played catchup all game but to no avail in the 27-14 loss. LW, KC-4 had a dogfight @HOME with LAC. At first it didn’t look that way because KC was leading 13-0 at the half and I and everyone else thought that this would be a rout by KC. But LAC scored 2tds on their 1^st two possessions of the 2^nd half and all of a sudden the score was LAC 14-13. KC added a fg to make it KC 16-14. Then LAC added a fg to make it LAC 17-16 but in typical KC fashion, KC drove down the field, used the clock and kicked a fg to win 19-17 with :00 on the clock. Just when you think you have KC on the ropes, you don’t. Neither team had any turnovers but the main focus in the 2^nd half was ball control and LAC did what they could but, in the end it was Mahomes to TE Travis Kelce. L8 KC vs CLEV, KC 5-3 SU but 3-5 ATS. KC 28-27-2 ATS L57 as a ROAD FAV. KC 46-411 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 35-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 13-5 ATS after LAC. KC 13-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 18-10 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 20-9-2 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 2-9 ATS as a non-div conf ROAD FAV. KC 10-2 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs <.400opp. CLEV 17-21-1 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 18-30-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 34-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 4-9 ATS off SU div loss vs >.500opp. CLEV 6-9-2 ATS after PITT. CLEV 9-12 ATS before CINNCY. CLEV 7-13-2 ATS off SU div loss. CLEV 4-14 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600> opp. CLEV 12-4 L16 off SU loss vs .500>opp. KC is winning ugly but, they keep winning. They are trying to secure the #1 seed in the AFC and keep HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE throughout the playoffs. So far, they are ahead of BUFF, PITT & BALT. KC’s schedule moving forward is nit easy because everyone gives KC their best game. After CLEV, KC plays HOU, @PITT on a WED & then @DEN. There are no easy games and the schedule is not kind either. CLEV is just ugly and there are many questions that need to be answered in the off-season. There is talent on this club but the BIG question is QB. QB Jameis Winston is not the answer as he is very inconsistent and turnover happy. Plus, the DEF for CLEV has slipped a lot since last season. In 2023 CLEV had the #1 TOT DEF, in 2024 they have #21 TOT DEF. That is a BIG drop for one season. Many people say that the KC DEF is not as good as last season but, they keep winning. KC has been notorious about not covering spreads and winning close games but, they just keep on finding ways to win. As long as Pat Mahomes is the QB of KC, they will always find a way to win. CLEV is not as good as LAC and I don’t see CLEV going step for step with KC in this one. CLEV QB Jameis Winston is more of a gunslinger and will try to make something out of nothing on more than one occasion and that will be easy picking for the KC DEF. I can’t go against Superman on this one. Lay the points here as KC wins by a td or more.

THE PICK: KC-4

Cincinnati Bengals (5-8), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (6-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-10), (2-11) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (0-6) ATS                           TENN+5

LW, CINNCY was in a funny game @DAL on MNF. This game was going back and forth when it shouldn’t have. Both of these teams have nothing to play for but CINNCY always plays tough. However, the game was tied at 20 with 2:00 to play. CIINCY was punting and DAL partially blocked it. But a DAL defender went to try to recover the ball, not knowing the rules, and muffed it. CINNCY recovered the ball & QB Joe Burrow threw a pass to his favorite target, WR Ja’Marr Chase for a td and the final score was CINNCY 27-20. I liked CINNCY-6 so it was the final touch on a weird weekend. LW, TENN @HOME was up 6-0 on JAGS. But TENN is a bad team and could expand on the lead or even keep it and JAGS scored 10pts on 2straight possessions in the 4^th qtr and TENN lost 10-6. Pretty bad and I didn’t stick to my mantra that when two bad teams play each other, pick the one with the points. JAGS were +3 ½ . L10 CINNCY vs TENN, CINNCY 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS. CINNCY 19-8 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY17-7-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 31-33-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 30-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 12-7 ATS L19 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 27-7 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 15-3 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 15-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 14-4 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 13-9-1 ATS 1NL before CLEV. TENN 18-15 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. TENN 8-14-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TENN 38-42 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 29-35-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 13-9 ATS 1NL before INDY. TENN 9-3-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs .333>opp. TENN 3-14 ATS L17 vs AFC NORTH. TENN 2-9 ATS as a conf DOG >3pts vs <.500 opp. Both of these teams have nothing to play for but, don’t say that to CINNCY. They still think they can find a way to crawl back into this and fall into the playoffs by sheer will. They could actually end up 9-8 and fall backwards into the playoffs if other teams collapse, it is possible but, very slim. Anyway, these two teams met in wk 4 of last season with TENN beating the crap out of CINNCY 27-3. I remember that game because I felt CINNCY QB Joe Burrow would have a BIG game. But TENN had the BIG game and CINNCY would have an uphill battle from a 1-3 start. TENN would be 2-2 but it was a false prophecy because TENN would end up 6-11. But this is the matchup that is intriguing for this game. CINNCY #1 PASS OFF vs TENN #1 PASS DEF. This is not a misprint. The TENN DEF has 8INTs but four of them belong to S Amani Hooker. Now if only TENN could be that good in everything else, they would be some hell of a team. CB L’Jarius Sneed who was ALL-WORLD with KC and was traded to TENN in the off-season got injured in wk 5 and his season was over. This left a BIG hole in the secondary for TENN. TENN has been a huge disappointment to say the least and may be looking to move on from QB Will Levis after the season. He has been sacked a lot and they need to improve the O-LINE for him to really succeed. RB Tony Pollard has been a bright spot in gaining yards and taking pressure off of Levis. As for CINNCY, they again started out slow @ 1-4 and it has been an uphill battle from there with really no success. They have been 4-4 since and are in 3^rd place in the AFC NORTH. But for this game, I like the matchup for TENN. I think the TENN DEF gets to Burrow and he has a couple of turnovers and TENN is actually able to capitalize on them. But, I think CINNCY wins by a fg in a game that really doesn’t matter.    

THE PICK: TENN+5

Washington Commanders (8-5), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS                NO+7

LW, NO barely got by NYG, @NYG. NO looked more lost than NYG and this game went down to the wire after NO had a 14-3 lead. NYG scored a td and then scored a 2pt conversion on a crazy deflected ball. With the score NO 14-11, NYG was driving and was ready to kick a game tying fg. Fortunately for NO, it was blocked and NO won 14-11. But, it should have never come down to this. NO QB Derek Carr was injured on a crazy run play and looks like he suffered a concussion and a fractured left arm in the process. WASH is coming off a bye. Before their bye, they beat up TENN pretty badly, 42-19. I didn’t think TENN would win the game but, I thought it would be a closer contest. WASH scored 3tds on 3straight possessions and was ahead 21-0 in the 1^st qtr and the game was over. It was 28-0 before TENN finally put up some points. WASH rushed for a combined 267yds & 3tds on 45carries. TENN couldn’t compete either on OFF or DEF. L8 WASH vs NO, WASH 4-4 but 6-2 ATS. WASH 8-5 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 4-13 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. WASH 7-13 ATS before PHILLY. WASH 40-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 34-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 6-18 ATS w/rest. WASH 5-9 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 3-8 ATS as a FAV >1pt vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 6-2 ATS L8 WAY vs NFC SOUTH. NO 9-11-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. NO 29-45-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 30-29-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 5-2 ATS as a non-div DOG 7>pts. NO is without RB Taysom Hill & QB Derek Carr. They have QB Jake Haener at the helm for now and Spencer Rattler as the backup. Neither QB is a savior. In reality, NO’s season is over. They started out like gangbusters, fizzled fast and never recovered. Now they are playing spoiler, if they can muster that. NO RB Alvin Kamara is having another fine season but it must be frustrating to have another season go nowhere. Will he be with NO in 2025? WASH is looking to salvage their season and maybe play a playoff game. WASH is not used to winning and doesn’t know how to handle it. They have lost three out of their last four before their bye. Two of them were winnable. The game vs PITT was winnable and the game vs DAL was a callamady of errors and no discipline that led to a crazy DAL victory after WASH was a heavy FAV-10 ½ @HOME. WASH needs to get back their focus and smart play because their schedule down the stretch is not that tough and they should win three out of the four remaining games. After @NO, WASH plays PHILLY, ATL & @DAL. If WASH goes 3-1 it will be a successful season and something to build on. If WASH collapses and fizzles, there will be some changes made probably against WASH HC Dan Quinn’s will. WASH #5 TOT OFF vs NO #30 TOT DEF w/#28 PASS DEF. NO was lucky to hold on vs NYG. WASH has to take advantage of NO’s soft secondary and come back strong. WASH should go run heavy as they did vs TENN to take some pressure off of QB Jayden Daniels and keep it coming. WASH should win by 10pts. WASH CB Marshon Lattimore is questionable but is scheduled to return for this game. He was traded from NO to WASH earlier in the season. Hopefully he can help WASH in some way, even if he doesn’t play.      

THE PICK: WASH-7

Baltimore Ravens (8-5), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ New York Giants(2-11), (3-10) ATS, (0-7) HOME, (0-6-1) ATS                        NYG+16 ½  

BALT is coming off a bye. Before that they lost @HOME to PHILLY 24-19. It started out well for BALT as they led 9-0 but I had picked PHILLY because PHILLY is a stronger team all the way down the line. BALT helped beat themselves with 2missed fgs and a missed extra point. All of a sudden K Justin Tucker is having problems with accuracy. He has been Mr. Reliable for so long. The PHILLY DEF held the BALT OFFF in check for most of the game as PHILLY was leading 24-12 when BALT scored a dummy td with :03 left to make the final score PHILLY 24-19. LW, NYG were mostly asleep @HOME vs a less than average NO team. I liked NO-4 and it was looking good with NO leading 14-3 but all of a sudden NO couldn’t do anything with the ball and NYG were playing better on both sides of the ball. NYG then scored a td and a crazy 2pt conversion and the score was NO 14-11. NYG QB Drew Lock had the team believing that they could win this game and he was driving toward what was either a go ahead td or at least a tying fg. Well, NYG set up for a tying fg and it was blocked and NYG lost 14-11. All in a day’s work for NYG as they lose and at least vie for the #1 PICK. L6 BALT vs NYG, BALT 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS. BALT 9-7 ATS 1NL since 2007 wk after their bye. BALT 26-19-1 ATS L46 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 43-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 35-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 21-21-1 ATS L43 vs NFC. BALT 12-11 ATS before PITT. BALT 14-8 ATS as a FAV >1pt w/rest. BALT 15-8 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. NYG 21-29-1 ATS L51 as a HOME DOG. NYG 8-9-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NYG 51-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 39-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 12-9-1 ATS vs .333>non-conf opp. NYG 5-1-1 ATS L7 non-conf HOME gms. NYG 5-0-1 ATS L6 vs opp w/rest. NYG are in contention for the #1PICK. That hasn’t happened since 1965 when they selected RB Tucker Fredrickson. Tucker had a good rookie season, injured his knee and never was the same again. His last season was 1971 and he played all 6seasons with NYG. This time around, NYG desperately needs a QB & O-Linemen. The O-Linemen is plural because NYG need more than one position filled. Anyway, it looks like Lock will be the QB for the remainder of the season to try to see who sticks around for next season. Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy looks good for next season. Imagine if he had a solid O-LINE? BALT is coming of a bye and before that they lost @HOME to PHILLY. In that game, K Justin Tucker missed 2fgs & 1extra point that could have altered this game. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs NYG #29 RUSH DEF. BALT needs to play smart and execute. They cannot take the NYG for granted. These two teams met in wk5 @NYG in 2022 with NYG upsetting BALT 24-20. I knew BALT was ripe for the taking and NYG won the game outright. But BALT should use this and their loss as motivation for steamrolling NYG in this game. However, the BIG Spread may get NYG to play better just for the sake of pride. A lot of players don’t like being such a HEAVY HOME DOG because it shows disrespect among the betting public. Football players take it personally. I like BALT to win but, not by 3scores. NYG finds a way to keep it a little closer as BALT doesn’t usually blow teams out. Even though it was just confirmed that NYG QB Drew Lock will be out for this game and Tommy DeVito is starting, I still like NYG to keep it closer @HOME. BALT may get too cocky and make some mistakes that NYG could capitalize on.   

THE PICK: NYG+16 ½    

Dallas Cowboys (5-8), (5-8) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-11), (6-7) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (4-3) ATS                            DAL+2 ½  

LW, CAR almost beat PHILLY. CAR has been playing every game like it’s their SuperBowl. They were one dropped pass away from beating PHILLY. They were a fumble away from beating TB. They were 3pts away from beating KC. They have been playing competitive football and need to keep doing it to build off this season. CAR QB Bryce Young is looking better and the OFF is playing better as a whole. I was on the fence about CAR+13 and should have went with my gut which was CAR but I chose PHILLY because PHILLY could run away with a game. But what happened is that CAR had a chance for the upset but lost by a pass that barely touched the ground. CAR did give up a lot of yards on the ground, 209 yds, which is something they need to correct in the off season but right now they are giving some good teams a run for their money. By the way, CAR lost 22-16. On MNF, DAL @HOME was playing toe to toe with CINNCY. I liked CINNCY as the ROAD FAV-6 but this game was tied at 20-20 with 2:00 minutes to go. CINNCY punted and it was partially blocked by DAL. But a DAL player than tried to retrieve the ball and muffed it, CINNCY recovered. CINNCY scored a td and that was the game, CINNCY 27-20. DAL has a lot of questions to answer in the off-season. DAL RB Rico Dowdle had a good game rushing 131yds on 18carries but again, bad teams find a way to lose. L9 DAL vs CAR, DAL 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS. DAL 30-46-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 28-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 8-15-1 ATS L24 vs NFC SOUTH. CAR 16-8-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CAR 37-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 25-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CAR 3-8 ATS L11 vs NFC EAST. This game went from CAR+5 ½ to DAL +2 ½ . CAR has been playing competitive football with QB Bryce Young who is also playing a lot better. CAR has lost some very close games and were inches from beating PHILLY last week. DAL & CAR met in wk 11 @CAR last season, with DAL winning 33-10. CAR was a HOME DOG+10 ½ and DAL came in and gave CAR a drudging. This will be a little payback for that game. DAL didn’t take CAR lightly and embarrassed them on the field. CAR as a team didn’t have a good game and they will show DAL how they have improved. DAL actually played well on MNF but, as the saying goes, bad teams find a way to lose and the decision to touch the ball after the blocked punt shows how not all players know the rules of the game. This always come back to haunt teams. CAR RB Chuba Hubbard vs DAL #30 RUSH DEF. Forget where CAR is ranked in RUSH OFF. Hubbard will go crazy vs DAL who can’t seem to stop anyone. The crowd will so be behind CAR that DAL will not know what hit them. The CAR team should be pumped because they could finally knock DAL out of the playoff picture. CAR needs to address certain areas with a player or two here and there and they will be a tougher team. Their DEF needs some work but they seem to be making stops when they need them, now they need take-aways. After this game, CAR plays ARZ, @TB & @ATL. They are all winnable and would add uncertainty to the already weak NFC SOUTH. I like CAR here BIG so lay the points.     

THE PICK: CAR-2 ½

New York Jets (3-10), (3-9-1) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (1-5-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10), (7-5-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (4-2) ATS                   JAGS+3 ½

LW, NYJ were DOG +6 @ MIA. I liked MIA because MIA was off the loss at GB and was on a bounceback and needed the win to stay in the playoff conversation. NYJ gave it all they had and had a 23-15 lead in the 4^th qtr. But, bad teams find a way to lose and NYJ gave up a td & a 2pt conversion to make the score 23-23. Then NYJ had problems with clock management and kicked a fg with :52 seconds left instead of running the clock all the way down. On the ensuing kickoff, MIA returned the ball to the 45yd line and then needed only 20yds for a tying fg. The game was tied at 26. MIA got the ball in OT and drove down the field and scored a td for a 32-26 win. Like I said, bad teams find a way to lose. LW, JAGS were in a dogfight @TENN. I liked TENN-3 ½ but I should have taken my own advice that, when two bad teams play each other take the one with the points. TENN was leading this game 6-0 going into the 4^th qtr but all of a sudden JAGS found a pulse and put together two straight drives that produced a fg and a td to lead 10-6. TENN couldn’t do anything for 3straight possessions and ended up losing 10-6. On a positive note for JAGS, QB Mac Jones spread the ball around to 7dfferent receivers which kept the TENN secondary guessing. L11 NYJ vs JAGS, NYJ 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS. NYJ 3-13-2 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 3-4 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. NYJ 11-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYJ 39-33-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 21-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 9-9-1 ATS after MIA. NYJ 11-21 ATS after scoring 25>points. NYJ 11-21 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 2-13 ATS AWAY off SU div loss vs non-div opp. JAGS 23-24 ATS L47 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 11-6 ATS after TENN. JAGS 33-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 38-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 13-3 ATS as a DOG 6<pts after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 2-9 ATS @HOME off DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 6-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 9-11 ATS off SU DOG win. Both teams are pretty bad even though NYJ OFF can put up some points. However, when they need to get points, they can’t. They looked good last week @MIA but collapsed as usual in the 4^th qtr. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers has become immobile. A crucial sack late in the game by MIA led to the collapse. In previous years, Rodgers would have scrambled and got away from the rush. Father time has caught up with Rodgers and he doesn’t run at all out of the pocket. JAGS are just plain bad but JAGS QB Mac Jones looks as though he is playing to stay in the league. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is most likely not coming back this season so Jones will have the rest of the season to play with. If he can show some progress and maybe some wins, maybe he will have a job in 2025. There is talent on the JAGS team. JAGS need to decide who stays and who goes. Plus, they need to add a few guys so that opposing OFFs don’t have a field day. JAGS #31 PASS DEF. NYJ are probably looking at that and feeling overconfident that JAGS are a push over. That’s why NYJ will probably lose this one too. When two bad teams play each, take the team with the points. I like the JAGS here.  

THE PICK: JAGS+3 ½

Miami Dolphins (6-7), (5-6-2) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (8-5), (4-7-2) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (1-4-1) ATS                       MIA+3

HOU is coming off a bye and before that they barely hung on to beat @JAGS, 23-20. HOU was up in this game 23-6 and everyone & I thought that the game was over. Then, the HOU DEF goes to sleep as did the HOU OFF and all of a sudden JAGS QB Mac Jones leads 2td drives with a 2pt conversion and the score is 23-20. The HOU OFF got the ball with 3:31 left and needed a way to keep the ball out of JAGS hands. HOU got a couple of 1^st downs and the game was over but, it was close. HOU RB Joe Mixon rushed for 101yds & 1td on 20carries. LW, what was MIA thinking @HOME vs NYJ? They almost blew the game Bigtime and their season would most certainly be over. Where was the MIA DEF? It showed up late in the game but that is when anything could happen. However, MIA was down 23-15 @HOME to NYJ and put together a drive to tie the game. With score tied at 23-23, NYJ made some time management blunders but managed to kick a fg and lead 26-23. But, on the ensuing kickoff, MIA ran it back to the 45yd line and then MIA needed 6plays and was able to kick the ball for a tying fg at 26-26. In OT, MIA got the ball and drove down the field and scored a td to win 32-26. But this game could have easily been won by NYJ and the season for MIA would have been definitely over. L10 MIA vs HOU, MIA 3-7 SU & 5-5 ATS. MIA 11-8 ATS after NYJ. MIA 2-4 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. MIA 27-38 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 32-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 8-9 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. HOU 26-22 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 14-20-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 27-17-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600<opp. HOU 1-11 ATS L12 @HOME vs <.500opp. Both of these teams are fighting for playoff position but, HOU is leading in their division while nothing is guaranteed for MIA. MIA has to keep winning just to be considered. MIA’s DEF has to get better. They cannot keep winning shootouts. They gave up 339yds passing to NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers who hadn’t had a 300yard passing game in since 2021. If MIA wants to even get to the playoffs and do some damage, they need to clamp down on DEF. They need to create some turnovers and extra opportunities for the OFF. HOU looks like they have regressed from last season. Their schedule is certainly a little tougher this season after surprising everyone last season. But HOU needs to keep moving forward not taking steps backwards. HOU QB CJ Stroud looks like he may have regressed this season and it looks so with games that HOU barely won. But what takes pressure off of Stroud is RB Joe Mixon. When healthy, he has made it easier for Stroud to play his game. But Stroud is making mistakes and MIA may be waiting. MIA #7 RUSH DEF vs HOU # 16 RUSH OFF. This means that this game will be more on Stroud’s shoulders than he would like. In turn, MIA has to spread that ball around and keep the HOU DEF guessing. I like MIA here because, unlike @GB, it will be warm in the dome and MIA plays well in warm weather. MIA should win this game by a td. By the way, both teams have tough schedules down the stretch. HOU is @KC vs BALT & then @TENN. MIA plays vs SF, @CLEV & then @NYJ. None of those are gimmees either. Both need to play solid football going forward. But again, I like MIA here.   

THE PICK: MIA+3

Sunday December 15^th, 2024 4:00pm

Indianapolis Colts (6-7), (6-6-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Denver Broncos (8-5), (9-4) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS                             INDY+4 ½  

Before their bye, INDY was in a game that went back & forth with NE, @NE. I liked NE +2 ½ because I felt that NE had a strong shot at outright winning. With the score NE 24-17, INDY needed a last second td drive & 2pt conversion to beat NE @NE. INDY was driving but NE couldn’t make a stop. INDY got their td with a 3yd pass on a 4^th & goal from the NE 3yd line, then INDY QB Anthony Richardson ran straight up the middle for the 2pt conversion and the lead 25-24. NE attempted a 68yd fg at the buzzer that fell a couple of yards short and that was the game. INDY escaped this one but NE should have won. Before their bye, DEN was in a wild one on MNF @HOME vs CLEV. The DEN DEF gave up a lot of yards against a gunslinger in CLEV QB Jameis Winston but also returned 2 of his passes for tds that helped win the game for DEN 41-32. I liked DEN-5 ½ here but it was close to the end of the game and the PICK6 with 1:48 left helped DEN seal the win and cover, 41-32. Both QB made some mistakes and this game could have certainly gone either way. L12 INDY vs DEN, INDY 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS. INDY 13-3-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. INDY 11-6-2 ATS before TENN. INDY 39-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 34-32-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 13-7 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. INDY 7-3-1 ATS L11 w/rest. DEN 12-5 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. DEN 4-11-1 ATS before LAC. DEN 31-34-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 40-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. Both of these teams are coming off byes. So they have had a nice rest to prepare for this game. INDY is going nowhere but DEN is looking good for a possible playoff spot. They were in a wild one in that MNF game and the DEF for DEN kind of let them down. Good thing they were playing a gunslinger but for the most part the DEN DEF has been very good. DEN #8 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF & #20 PASS DEF. The DEN DEF has had some injuries to their secondary but have a couple of guys that are questionable for this game. Both DEN CB Riley Moss who is a hard hitter should be back & S Brandon Jones need to come back for the stretch run. There will be adjustments by the DEN DEF after they gave up a ton vs CLEV before their break. It should be comforting for the secondary that INDY QB Anthony Richardson is more of a runner than a passer. But, that doesn’t mean to play lax and give up passes. I certainly like DEN tightening up their DEF after giving away a lot vs CLEV before their break. I see a couple of turnovers that land in DEN’s favor and QB Bo Nix continues to impress. INDY #29 TOT DEF w/#30 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. DEN needs to keep their run game going to the point that Nix doesn’t feel that he has to win games by himself. DEN can’t take INDY too lightly because INDY still thinks it has a shot at the playoffs and will be playing hard. Look for INDY QB Anthony Richardson to have at least 2turnovers in this game. I like DEN to win by at least 14pts.

THE PICK: DEN-4 ½

Buffalo Bills (10-3), (9-4) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Detroit Lions (12-1), (9-3-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (4-3) ATS                                BUFF+2 ½  

LW, everyone was surprised how LAR played @HOME vs BUFF. I expected BUFF to beat LAR considering they had just dismantled SF. But LAR was prepared and it ended up being a shootout. BUFF lost the game on a timeout that was used to score their last td. Had they not used their 1^st timeout, BUFF would have 3timeouts to push LAR to get a 1^st down and secure the win. Now LAR didn’t have to as BUFF only 2timeouts. Anyway, it was an exciting game and LAR won 44-42. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw 3tds and rushed for 3tds. LW on TNF, I knew GB would give it their all @DET. I liked GB+3 ½ because everyone in the NFC is chasing DET. But you are going to have some games that you win in a laugher and some games that are close, that’s just how it goes. Especially vs a very good division rival, they will give it their all. DET RBs Montgomery & Gibbs continued to do their thing rushing for 94yds & 1td on 29carries. They certainly take a lot of pressure off of QB Jared Goff who threw for 3tds in this game. But, I knew it would be close at the end because GB had to settle for a tying fg instead of a go ahead td. This left the door open for a winning fg instead of a possible td drive by DET. Anyway, DET drove down the field, used the clock and kicked a winning fg with :02 left to win 34-31. L5 BUFF vs DET, BUFF 4-1 SU but 1-3-1 ATS. BUFF 14-8-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. BUFF 44-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 33-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 11-17-2 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 5-13-2 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 11-10 ATS 1NL before NE. DET 24-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 35-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 9-6-2 ATS after GB. DET 13-9 ATS !NL before CHI. DET 13-2 ATS as HOME FAV 4<pts off BB SU wins. DET 7-15-1 ATS after div HOME gm. DET 13-7-1 ATS w/rest. DET 13-6 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. DET 11-0 ATS L11 vs >.666opp. This game has ramifications for both teams. DET is playing to stay ahead of PHILLY, MINN & GB. BUFF is chasing KC and now PITT. Both of these teams will be scoreboard watching. These two teams met in 2022 in wk 12 @DET with BUFF winning a squeaker 28-25. It was DET HC Dan Campbell’s 2^nd season as the DET HC and he should remember it quite vividly. He doesn’t forget anything and he should use it as fodder this week against BUFF even though BUFF is on a bounceback. Both teams plays DEF well when needed.  DET #10 TOT DEF w/#5 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF vs BUFF #14 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & BUFF #9 PASS DEF.  DET has only given up 30>pts 1x this season and that was last week vs GB. BUFF just gave up 44pts to LAR & gave up 35pts to BALT. But both teams didn’t get here by playing lax DEF. If I know DET HC Dan Campbell, he will be completely prepared for this game vs BUFF. He will not let BUFF QB Josh Allen run anywhere because he will use a spotter. The DET DEF will play extra special this week because they need to stay ahead of PHILLY. If S Jamal Adam is activated for this game by DET, anything he could bring to this game would be a positive. Also, the fact that BUFF James Cook has been decent means that BUFF QB Allen has greater chances of making other choices instead of having to win games by himself. But LW, LAR exposed a BUFF DEF that showed weaknesses and how they can be beat. This game will be like a heavyweight boxing match but I like DET to come out the winner by a fg or more. Turnovers will be huge in this game. For DET, RBs Montgomery & Gibbs will be BIG factors keeping the BUFF DEF @bay. Also, Allen will not be able to run as much because DET will have their spotter. This should be a good game with DET moving forward.   

THE PICK: DET-2 ½

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3), (10-3) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-2), (8-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-4) ATS            PITT+5 ½  

LW, PHILLY almost lost @HOME vs CAR. I was on the fence about PHILLY-13 and I settled on PHILLY but CAR is playing competitively. Ultimately, I should have went with my gut. Bad teams find a way to lose and sometimes good teams get very lucky. PHILLY has figured it out and RB Saquon Barkley is part of the reason. He is having a monster season which has taken a lot of pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts. Again, PHILLY got lucky and won 22-16. LW, PITT got their revenge on CLEV. I didn’t think CLEV would win, just keep it close. But PITT would have none of that and beat CLEV convincingly, 27-14. It wasn’t much of a game as PITT was up 27-7 in the 4^th qtr as CLEV tried to comeback, to no avail. PITT QB Russell Wilson has certainly played better this season after getting a fresh start after leaving DEN. This game is like a playoff game and Wilson needs to step up and lead the team. That is what he was brought in for.

L6 PITT vs PHILLY, PITT 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS. PITT 13-12 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PITT 32-33 ATS AWAY In DEC. PITT 27-16 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 12-5 ATS after CLEV. PITT 16-8 ATS before BALT. PITT 13-1 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU win. PITT 26-9 ATS as a DOG vs >.500opp. PITT 13-2 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs >.500opp. PITT 14-4 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 13-4 ATS vs non-div opp off BB Su wins. PHILLY 8-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 37-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 42-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. 29-18-1 ATS L48 vs non-conf. PHILLY 10-10 ATS before WASH. PHILLY 19-9-1 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 3-9 ATS as a non-conf FAV <7pts off BB Su wins. PHILLY 4-14 ATS as a non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. Both of these teams will be scoreboard watching. This game has ramifications for both teams. PHILLY is chasing DET and PITT is chasing KC while battling PITT. The PITT schedule going forward is a very tough. They play @BALT, vs KC & vs CINNCY. Not easy games and could make or break the entire PITT season starting with this game vs PHILLY. PITT HC Mike Tomlin will keep the team focused but, it’s hard not to look ahead of the schedule and see who PITT plays. As for PHILLY, their schedule gets easier but all against the NFC EAST. Each team may want to play spoiler. After PITT, PHILLY plays @WASH, vs DAL & NYG. WASH is playing for their own playoff positioning and gave PHILLY a tight game for a while in wk 11. DAL & NYG are just playing out the string but may want to play spoiler if PHILLY still has a shot at the #1playoff position in the NFC. PHILLY #7 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF & #31 PASS OFF vs PITT #7 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF & #17 PASS DEF. PITT needs to stop PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley who is having the best season of his career. PITT can do it but PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is no slouch. He is making better decisions this season over last season and that is why PHILLY is 11-2. PHILLY also has the #1 TOT DEF so they have a complete team that could beat you many ways. Although it is a mystery how CAR almost won last week. Who will stop PITT LB TJ Watt? Look for him to make some BIG plays in a BIG game. This will be a tight game and any turnovers in this game will loom large. I like the game coming down to a fg as each team has a lot to gain and a lot to lose. But I like PITT with the points here. 

THE PICK: PITT+5 ½

New England Patriots (3-10), (5-7-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (6-7), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS               NE+6

LW, ARZ looked completely unprepared @HOME vs SEA. I thought they would get their revenge after losing @SEA a couple of weeks ago and a bounceback after losing @MINN. But same ole ARZ. SEA came out like gangbusters and ARZ was trailing 17-7 after the 1^st qtr. ARZ played catchup to no avail and lost 30-18. The ARZ DEF put no pressure on SEA QB Geno Smith and sacked him 0x. Plus, SEA rushed for 176yds & 2tds on 31carries.ARZ QB Kyler Murray threw 2INTs that SEA turned into 14pts. NE is coming off a bye. Before that they lost a heartbreaker @HOME vs INDY. NE had INDY beat 24-17 but INDY had the ball with 5:34 left in the game. NE couldn’t make a stop and INDY put together a drive that resulted in a td with :02 left and INDY QB Anthony Richardson rushed up the middle for a successful 2pt conversion and the 25-24 win. NE made some mistakes that eventually would cost them the game. But I had liked NE+2 ½ @HOME because I knew INDY is not really that good and NE QB Drake Maye is getting better and better every week. L6 NE vs ARZ, NE 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS. NE 9-8 ATS since 2008 wk after bye. NE 15-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NE 28-18-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 39-35-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 9-10-1 ATS before BUFF. ARZ 8-13-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. ARZ 25-26 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 41-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 11-6-1 ATS after SEA. ARZ 6-10 ATS off SU FAV loss. ARZ 11-2 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.500opp. ARZ 2-11 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU loss. ARZ is still in the playoff picture because the NFC WEST has no definite leader. This season has been topsy turvy for the NFC WEST and every team still has a legitimate shot at a playoff spot. ARZ is has a 3game losing streak in which ARZ could have won all three. However, the ARZ DEF and some key mistakes on OFF are to blame. ARZ is not quite there in their turnaround. The DEF hasn’t made stop s when they have needed them. ARZ has @CAR, @LAR & vs SF as their last three games after this weekend. They are all winnable but LAR & SF are fighting for that playoff spot too. It will not be easy for ARZ as CAR has also been playing a lot better too. NE is looking for positives from a team that has seen a lot of negatives this season. They are looking to build off this season and QB Drake Maye has seen what its like to start every week. But NE needs a better O-LINE if they want success for Maye. He has been sacked a lot and that can take a toll on a QB’s game. NE may have a bad record but they give a fight every game against whoever they play. The NE DEF has some upcoming stars on it, they just need some more players to fill in the gaps. I don’t see a blowout by ARZ even though they need this game more than NE. ARZ is fighting for a playoff spot but have looked lackluster in their sense of urgency. ARZ QB Kyler Murray has thrown 5INTs in the last 3games while throwing only 3INTS in the first 10games. He has made some bad choices and is pressing too hard to try to win. He should take what the DEF gives him but bad habits are hard to break. NE should have won a few more games than they lost but that happens to games during the season and to bad teams. But here I think the game will be close and NE actually has a chance at a win as ARZ can’t find any answers on DEF.

THE PICK: NE+6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), (9-3-1) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-1-1) ATS           TB+3

LW, I liked LV+7 @TB. I didn’t think LV would win but, just keep it close. Typical LV style, they kept it close trailing 14-10 until the 4^th qtr when LV QB Aidan O’Connell got hurt and the DEF for LV just disappeared. TB score 2tds in the 4^th qtr for a 28-13 win. Even though TB QB Baker Mayfield had 3turnovers, LV only managed to turn them into 7pts. TB was also able to get their run game going with 152yd rushing & 1td on 26carries which only added more misery to the LV DEF. TB never trailed in this game and looked to keep pace in the crazy NFC SOUTH. LW, LAC was in a dogfight @KC. In typical fashion LAC was down, made a comeback, traded fgs and then lost with :00 to a winning fg by KC to make the score 19-17. LAC RB Gus Edwards was not that effective having to pick up the slack for the injured RB JK Dobbins. Neither team had a turnover which added to the suspense of this game. L5 TB vs LAC, TB 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. TB 20-12 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TB 8-4 ATS as a DOG <7pts in 1^st of BB RGs. TB 29-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 35-42-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 33-30-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 10-20-2 ATS after DD SU win. LAC 9-14 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAC 37-33-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 33-41-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 12-7-1 ATS before DEN. LAC 3-15-1 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV <4pts vs >.500opp. Both of these teams are playing for playoff positioning. TB is ina dogfight with the rest of the NFC SOUTH because there has been no clear leader in that division all season. TB just has to keep winning and the division will be theirs. After @LAC, TB plays @DAL, vs CAR & vs NO. CAR has been playing very competitively lately and is not a push over like they were earlier in the season. With DAL, you don’t know what you’re getting from week to week so that game may not be easy either. As for the game vs NO, if QB Derek Carr is playing, NO will be looking to play spoiler. If he is not playing, NO will be an easy win. For LAC, their DEF played well vs KC with 3sacks of Mahomes. But at times the LAC DEF can disappear and you wonder where they went. LAC #11 TOT DEF is rated high but against some passers LAC gives up some BIG plays. LAC’s record is deceiving. LAC hasn’t beaten a good team but have beaten all bad teams. In 2025, their schedule will be brutal. But for right now, after TB, LAC plays DEN, @NE & @LV. DEN is tough and is also playing for playoff positioning. NE should be an easy game but it will be cold there. LV will be in doors and LAC may need that game just to get in the playoffs. LAC may be nervous vs LV because LAC hasn’t been in a position for playoffs in quite awhile and may get stage fright. TB #11 RUSH DEF. TB will stop the LC run gamer and put it all on QB Justin Herbert’s arm. Can he handle that? Mayfield will clean up his turnovers and find receivers in this game as LAC secondary will lapse. This game has the makings of a shootout because each QB likes to throw. In a shootout I like TB with the points.   

THE PICK: TB+3

Sunday December 15^th, 2024 8:20pm

Green Bay Packers (9-4), (7-6) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6), (7-5-1) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS                       SEA+2 ½  

LW, I liked GB+3 ½ @DET on TNF. I knew this game would be tight and it was very tight right down to the wire. GB couldn’t afford a loss or a blowout loss and they would throw everything they could @DET. They did but when it was 31-31, DET had a drive that brought the ball deep intro GB territory and DET set up for a fg with about :01 left in the game to break the 31-31 tie. GB was trailing 17-7 at the half but, I knew they would battle back. The crucial point in this game was when GB had to settle for a fg instead of a td when trailing 31-28 with 3:38 to go. Had GB scored a td it would have put pressure on DET to go down the field and get a td rather than a fg. LW, SEA came out like gangbusters @ARZ. ARZ QB Kyler Murray had 2INTs I the 1^st qtr that resulted in 2tds for SEA and a score of SEA 17-7. From there on ARZ was playing comeback but SEA would have none of it. SEA was leading 24-10 at the half and ARZ only managed a td the rest of the way while SEA won 30-18. SEA committed 0turnovers in this game & SEA QB Geno Smith only missed 6passes. The SEA running game helped out as well rushing for 176yds & 2tds on 31carries. The ARZ DEF had no answers in this game. L11 GB vs SEA, GB 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS. GB 13-5-1 ATS on SNF off SU loss. GB 17-12-1 ATS AWAY on SNF. GB 18-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. GB 15-27 ATS L43 as a ROAD FAV. GB 10-12 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. GB 19-5 ATS as a FAV <7pts in 2^nd of BB RGs. GB 39-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 62-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 9-3 ATS after DET. GB 17-9-1 ATS w/rest. GB 3-13-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3<pts. GB 35-14-1 ATS after div gm. GB 26-10 ATS as a FAV off div gm. GB 21-6 ATS as a FAV <8pts after div gm. GB 9-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. GB 7-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs opp off DD SU win. GB 10-0 ATS L10 vs NFC WEST. GB 0-4 ATS L4 vs opp off SU DOG win. SEA 9-8 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. SEA 13-8 ATS as a DOG on SNF. SEA 18-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. SEA 13-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SEA 47-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 49-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 8-7 ATS after div ROAD gm. SEA 17-6-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 12-8 ATS after ARZ. SEA 15-6 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. SEA 13-2 ATS vs .500>non-div conf opp. Both of these teams are playing for playoff position. GB is locked in a battle with DET & MINN. Although they have lost both games to DET, they still have one more vs MINN. But in any tie breakers, GB would lose because they have already lost to MINN and MINN is ahead of GB in the standings. As for SEA, anything can happen in the NFC WEST because no team has established any sort of dominance. All four teams still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs if they keep winning and other teams lose. But it will not be easy for SEA as they play MINN next week & @LAR in wk 18. The SEA DEF has been known to disappear in some games but since their bye, SEA is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. They have certainly been focused and playing better. SEA QB Geno Smith has 3tds & 2INTS during that span. As for GB, they can score points and the DEF plays well too. Both teams have exciting players on OFF but I have to give the edge here to GB because they are on a bounceback and need this win more desperately. SEA has had troubles in the redzone and that is something that has been holding them back in games. I like GB here in a good game but GB wins by 3-7pts.   

THE PICK: GB-2 ½

Monday December 16^th, 2024 8:00pm

Chicago Bears (4-9), (7-5-1) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (11-2), (9-3-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS                             CHI+7

LW, CHI didn’t show up in their game @SF. After HC Matt Eberflus was fired, there is usually a bump up for the new HC. Well, there was a bump down, all the way down. New HC Thomas Brown was overwhelmed and CHI was down 24-0 at the half. I didn’t think CHI would win this game because SF was coming off that BIG loss @BUFF and was on a bounceback BUT, CHI was looking good the week before @DET and almost had a chance to beat them. I figured maybe CHI+6 would keep it close. Nothing went right for CHI & they lost 38-13. So much for bumps up. LW, MINN-4 ½ was in a dogfight @HOME vs ATL. I thought that MINN would beat up on ATL QB Kirk Cousins and that he would make some costly mistakes and MINN would win easily. Well, this game was 21-21 in the 4^th qtr when MINN finally had some good luck. After MINN took the lead 28-21, ATL WR Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled the ensuing kickoff and MINN ended up scoring a td to make it 35-21. Then Cousins threw an INT and MINN ended up with another td to make the score 42-21. That was that for the scoring. But, the BIG news was MINN QB Sam Darnold who looked great. He was 22/28 for 347yds, 5tds & 0turnovers. MINN WRs Jordan Addison & Justin Jefferson combined for 265yds & 5tds on 15catcthes. L17 CHI @MINN, CHI 6-11 SU & 8-8-1 ATS. L35 CHI vs MINN, HOME 17-15-2 ATS 1NL. L19 CHI vs MINN, FAV 11-5-2 ATS 1NL. CHI 15-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. CHI 6-1 ATS L7 AWAY on MNF. CHI 24-42-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 33-52-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 31-36 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 20-10-1 ATS before DET. CHI 10-4 ATS vs .500>div opp off DD SU win. CHI 1-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .750>opp. CHI 3-10 ATS 1NL after allowing 35>pts vs conf opp. MINN 8-8 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. MINN 2-3 ATS vs div on MNF. MINN 35-37-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 33-44-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 25-32-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 7-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 6-12 ATS as a FAV <11pts off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. MINN 10-5-1 ATS as a HME FAV >3pts off BB SU wins. MINN 12-5-1 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. MINN 4-11 AT @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 2-11 ATS off DD ATS win vs <.500opp w/revenge. Is it possible to say that CHI has gone backwards with their coaching change from Matt Eberflus to Thomas Brown? CHI looked completely unprepared last week @SF and they had time to prepare for that game. Now they play a MINN team that is playing to stay in reach of DET. MINN QB Sam Darnold is playing at another level. Too bad he wasn’t this focused with NYJ. CHI knows that their season is over and at this point all they can do is play spoiler. But with the performance they showed last week @SF, it would be very hard for any team to take them seriously. MINN is playing OFF at another level and is very focused. No one is talking about them and they are right behind DET. This is not like a couple of seasons ago when they had an almost identical record but, they were barely beating teams and lost @HOME in the 1^st round to NYG. The DEF for MINN is playing better too. MINN #2 RUSH DEF. They have been stopping the run all season and putting it all on the opposing QB. CHI #32 TOT OFF. CHI doesn’t know whether to pass or run and their O-LINE has been a problem all season. CHI QB Caleb Williams has been sacked 56x. This needs to be priority #1 for CHI in the off-season. These two teams played each other in wk 12 @CHI. in that game, MINN had a comfortable lead but CHI came back in the 4^th qtr and tied the game going into OT where MINN won 30-27. I don’t think MINN will take CHI lightly this week as they need to keep in reach of DET who they play in wk 18. Lay the points here as MINN SHOULD roll.    

THE PICK: MINN-7

Monday December 16^th, 2024 8:30pm

Atlanta Falcons (6-7), (5-8) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-11), (4-9) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (2-3) ATS                       LV+4 ½  

LW, ATL was playing toe-to-toe @MINN but MINN decided they had enough and slammed the door on ATL. MINN was up 28-21 when ATL return man Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled a kickoff & MINN recovered. MINN then got a td to make it MINN 35-21. ATL QB Kirk Cousins threw an INT and MINN converted that to a td to make the final score MINN 42-21. This game was 21-21 in the 4^th qtr but ATL made some costly mistakes that MINN capitalized on. LW, LV @TB had a chance but the LV secondary couldn’t stop a Pee Wee football team. LV were only trailing 14-10 in the 4^th qtr but LV QB Aidan O’Connell got injured and then the LV DEF couldn’t make a stop in the 4^th qtr and gave up 2tds. The final score was TB 28-13. LV was only able to capitalize on one of TB Baker Mayfield’s 3misuces and turn them into 7pts. LV has to be able to turn miscues into points more often. LV was battling TB all game but looked like they gave up in the 4^th qtr. L5 ATL vs LV, ATL 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS. ATL 11-16 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 10-16 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. ATL 36-34-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 40-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 9-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts. ATL 8-4 ATS as a non-conf FAV. ATL 2-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 9-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 6-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs <.500opp. ATL 2-12 ATS vs non-conf opp off DD SU loss. ATL 4-15-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 5-17-1 ATS vs .333<opp. LV 20-20-2 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. LV 9-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LV 6-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. LV 1-5 ATS on MNF vs opp off BB SU losses. ATL 4-9 ATS on MNF vs non-div opp. LV 31-42-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 36-57-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 10-12-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 8-16-3 ATS @HOME vs NFC. LV 2-14 ATS @HOME vs <.500 non-conf opp. No one cares about this game. LV’s season has been long over and they are battling NYJ for the top pick in the draft. ATL has been a huge disappointment and I have been dead on about ATL QB Kirk Cousins. When the chips are down, he will most likely turn the ball over. I said it last week, he is an average QB with a BIG contract. However, this week Cousins will look good against an LV team that has already wrote it in and gone home. LV DE Maxx Crosby needs to play on a good team and should request a trade after the season. ATL beats up bad teams and loses to good teams. How they beat PHILLY earlier in the season is a mystery but at the time, PHILLY hadn’t figured it out. ATL will put on a clinic on a bounceback and they will think they have a shot at the playoffs. They actually do because after this game, they play vs NYG, @WASH  & vs CAR. These should be wins for ATL unless they turn the ball over like they do in losses. But this should be a nice win for ATL. ATL #8 TOT OFF vs LV #14 TOT DEF. The LV DEF on paper looks pretty good but doesn’t translate to the field. ATL QB Kirk Cousins has 0tds & 8INTs in the last 4games where ATL has gone 0-4. He will certainly look good this week @LV. ATL will be back in the playoff conversation for the NFC SOUTH. LV will be shaking their heads as LV HC Antonio Pierce answers questions about another loss.  

THE PICK: ATL-4 ½