2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 17 (ATS)  

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Wednesday December 25^th, 2024 1:00pm

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), (10-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (5-1) ATS           PITT+2 ½  

LW, I liked PITT+6 @BALT. I strongly felt that after the loss @PHILLY the week before, PITT would give it their all @BALT and it would be a very close game. But the message didn’t get to PITT QB Russell Wilson who single-handedly lost the game for PITT @BALT. He fumbled what seemed like a sure td for PITT that BALT eventually turned into a td and he threw a PICK6. The rest of the PITT team played their hearts out and the DEF for PITT even intercepted BALT QB Lamar Jackson in a crucial situation. But Russell Wilson showed why he is past his prime and overrated and when PITT needed a BIG game win, he folded. The game got out of hand and BALT ended up winning 34-17. LW, KC showed why they are still the team to beat. I liked KC-3 @HOME vs HOU because I have said all season, QB CJ Stroud has regressed and the HOU schedule is not as easy. Anyway, this game went back and forth but the KC DEF made stops when they needed them and KC QB Pat Mahomes showed why he is the best extending a 17-16 lead in the 3^rd qtr to 24-16 and putting HOU against the wall. KC & HOU exchanged fgs in the 4^th qtr and KC won 27-19. KC got some important yards on the ground from RB Kareem Hunt that extended drives and he scored a td as well. The DEF for KC also played well as they intercepted HOU QB CJ Stroud 2x which the KC OFF was able to convert to 10pts. L10 KC vs PITT, KC 4-6 SU but 6-4 ATS. KC 29-27-1 ATS L57 as a ROAD FAV. KC 11-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. KC 48-41-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 36-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 9-13 ATS before DEN. KC 14-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 8-4 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins. KC 19-10 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 21-9-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. PITT 15-7-1 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. PITT 11-14 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. PITT 8-12-1 ATS after BALT. PITT 13-20 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 47-32-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 27-18 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 24-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 13-14 ATS L27 vs AFC WEST. PITT 27-11 ATS as a DOG vs >500opp. PITT 11-3 ATS off DD SU div loss. PITT 14-8 ATS before div HOME gm. PITT 13-5 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. The schedule is not kind to KC, three games in 11days. But, KC keeps on winning. KC needs another win to secure HOME FIELD advantage through the playoffs. PITT is coming off 2losses where mistakes on OFF has hurt them BIG TIME. KC doesn’t make mistakes and Mahomes knows what’s coming at him before the play begins. He spreads the ball around so that the opposing DEF doesn’t know what’s coming. I said in my analysis that the addition of Hollywood Brown would drive the HOU DEF crazy and he caught 5passes. Mahomes knows not to fall in love with any one receiver as the opposing DEF will cue in on that. KC TE Travis Kelce has certainly lost a step but he catches everything and when Mahomes needs desperate yards, Kelce is there. PITT QB Russell Wilson is not dependable and you can’t make rookie mistakes like he did vs BALT in such an important game. Winners step up and give an even bigger performance not compound the situation in a negative way and put their team in a no win situation. KC #12 PASS OFF vs PITT #20 PASS DEF. The PITT secondary is susceptible to the long ball and look for Mahomes to get a homerun ball to WR Hollywood Brown. He was brought in for just that reason, to be able to get behind the DEF. This is an important game for PITT but they are playing a team that also has a lot on the line and wants that #1seed. Plus, KC doesn’t make mistakes and their DEF steps up when needed. Lay the points here as KC wins and gets the #1seed. Look for some mistakes again by someone else on PITT as PITT HC Mike Tomlin will again be shaking his head.   

THE PICK: KC-2 ½

Wednesday December 25^th, 2024 4:30pm

Baltimore Ravens (10-5), (10-5) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (9-6), (5-8-2) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (2-4-1) ATS                       HOU+3

LW, BALT-6 @HOME got a gift from PITT. In fact, 2gifts that keep on giving. PITT couldn’t stop the ground game of BALT that amounted to over 200yds rushing. But the 2turnovers by PITT QB Russell Wilson were early Christmas gifts that aided them in this game. A big swing on the fumble by Wilson at the 3yd line of BALT and the PICK6 he threw. The swing on these mistakes is tremendous for a game like this and almost impossible to overcome which lifted BALT to a 34-17 victory. This was the largest margin of victory by either team in quite some while. The one mistake by BALT QB Lamar Jackson was given right back by Wilson with the PICK6. LW, I didn’t think HOU+3 would win or keep it close @KC. When KC needs a BIG win they find it. Plus, WR Tank Dell getting injured definitely changed the OFF for HOU. On top of that HOU CJ Stroud is not as good as he was in 2023. He is good but has regressed some what. HOU was playing toe-to-toe with KC for a while but that’s what KC does. They let you think you have a chance, then zap you. KC upped their DEF and HOU found themselves going nowhere. It didn’t help in this game that Stroud had 2INTs that KC turned into 10pts. HOU RB Joe Mixon only managed 57yds on 14 carries against a very strong KC DEF. KC won 27-19. L11 BALT vs HOU, BALT 9-2 SU & 7-3-1 ATS. BALT 27-19 ATS L46 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 11-9 ATS after PITT. BALT 12-4 ATS before CLEV. BALT 45-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 36-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 10-14 ATS va AFC SOUTH. HOU 16-20-1 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. HOU 7-17-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 27-22 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 31-32-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. I am surprised that this spread is not more considering that the BALT OFF is so efficient. HOU is not playing at the same level and BALT still has something to play for. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs #11 RUSH DEF. PITT’s run DEF is better than HOU and BALT still rushed for over 200yds. Plus, as a I have said before, HOU QB CJ Stroud is not the same guy he was in 2023. He is not making as many crisp passes as he was and he is making more mistakes. The loss of HOU WR Tank Dell is devastating for him and for the HOU OFF. Even with the reliable addition of RB Joe Mixon this season, Stroud has taken a step back. With nothing really to play for, I doubt HOU will be giving it their all as BALT still has the AFC NORTH crown in their sites with the win last week vs PITT. BALT knows that a loss last season @HOME vs KC in the AFC Championship game was a huge disappointment and BALT is playing to get past that. This has to be a statement game. BALT will run over HOU and on DEF makes some plays that give BALT extra opportunities to score. HOU is on a bounceback but has nothing to play for as they have locked up the AFC SOUTH. These two teams played each other in wk 1 last season in BALT with BALT winning 25-9 and in the 2^nd round of the playoffs in BALT with BALT winning 34-10. I don’t see any revenge factor here for HOU with HOU having nothing to play for and BALT motivated to get the AFC NORTH crown. Who on HOU is stopping RB Derrick Henry? Lay the points here as BALT should win easily.   

THE PICK: BALT-3

Thursday December 26^th, 2024 8:15pm

Seattle Seahawks (8-7), (7-6-2) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-1-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-11), (7-7-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (5-2-1) ATS                          CHI+3 ½  

LW, did anyone expect CHI @HOME to beat DET? Or to even keep it close? DET is still playing for the #1NFC seed and needs to keep winning as MINN & PHILLY are hot on their tail. Amazingly, CHI QB Caleb Williams was only sacked 2x in this game but did fumble the ball away on a sack which DET turned into a td. With DET off a loss, CHI was a sitting duck for DET. DET even pulled out a fake fumble on a play that resulted in a td for DET. CHI could not stop the DET OFF and DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 109yds & 1tds on 23 carries. The CHI DEF had no answers as DET was up 20-0 before CHI scored its 1^st points. DET took it easy in the 2^nd half as they built a 34-14 lead and CHI added a fg to make the final score DET 34-17. LW, SEA+3 @HOME battled a MINN that was looking to keep pace with PHILLY & DET. But 2INTs by SEA QB Geno Smith were tough to overcome. The 1^st INT resulted in only 3pts for MINN but at the time MINN had a 17-7 lead and the 2^nd INT resulted in the game ending for SEA in the 27-24 loss. On the play it looked like Smith & WR DK Metcalf were in miscommunication about the route and Smith under threw the ball to a waiting MINN DEF, game over. However, SEA did not go away quietly in this game and SEA QB Geno Smith spread the ball around nicely to 10different receivers. L9 SEA vs CHI, SEA 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS. SEA 17-18-2 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 12-7-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. SEA 40-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 39-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 6-10 ATS before LAR. SEA 5-8 SU & 5-6-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. CHI 19-20-1 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. CHI 11-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CHI 33-54-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 41-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 10-7 ATS before GB. CHI 8-11 ATS after DET. CHI QB Caleb Williams has been sacked 60x, pitiful. How can you win or even compete when your QB is under pressure on almost every play? Now CHI plays against another team that has something to play for. SEA is still battling for the NFC WEST title and a spot in the playoffs. SEA has to keep winning to even have a chance and then they play @LAR for all the marbles next week. But, SEA cannot look ahead because they need to stay focused. SEA needs to play the kind of OFF this week like they did vs MINN. SEA needs to spread the ball around again like they did to keep the CHI DEF guessing. The CHI DEF is not as good as MINN’s but when you have nothing to play for, some teams excel in the role as spoiler. CHI #26 TOT DEF w/#26 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF vs SEA #4 PASS OFF. Geno needs to carve up the CHI DEF like it’s not there. This is another game where I think the spread is too low. SEA is used to tough weather but SEA needs this game to have a shot at the playoffs. They played tough vs MINN but, need to keep it up without the mistakes. Look for SEA RB Kenneth Walker to be up to full stride and let loose after getting knocked back vs a tough MINN DEF. SEA is off a double bounceback and needs to turn things around quickly. Lay the points here as SEA rolls.     

THE PICK: SEA-3 ½

Saturday December 28^th, 2024 1:00pm

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), (10-4-1) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ New England Patriots (3-12), (6-8-1) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS               NE+5

I give NE a lot of credit last week for coming out storming @NE and building a 14-0 lead before BUFF finally woke up. NE has nothing to lose and I think BUFF didn’t take NE seriously. BUFF still has an outside chance at the #1 seed but knew they could turn on the juice any time they wanted. By the way, BUFF proceeded to score 24 straight points before NE would try to get back into the game with a dummy td with 1:13 left in the game to make the final score BUFF 24-21. After NE stormed out to that 14-0 lead BUFF really got angry and NE resorted back to the awful team that they truly are. In the 2^nd half, on three straight possessions for NE, NE fumbled, NE QB Drake Maye threw an INT and then a lateral fumble which was recovered by BUFF in the endzone. All these mistakes contributed to BUFF putting the game out of reach for NE. LW on TNF, LAC was the recipient of a DEN DEF that has suddenly forgotten how to play DEF. With DEN up 24-13, LAC scored 3tds on their last 4possessions to take the lead 34-24. In turn DEN managed 3punts & 1fg to end the game, @LAC 34-27. LAC was able to get their run game going without JK Dobbins and rush for 117yds that kept the DEN DEF guessing. L10 LAC vs NE, LAV 3-7 SU & 2-7-1 ATS. LAC 17-17-3 L37 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 12-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAC 38-34-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 39-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 8-9 ATS after DEN. LAC 23-11-1 ATS before LV. LAC 6-12-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 4-13-1 ATS L18 vs NE. NE 8-11-2 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. NE 8-15 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NE 29-19-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 38-27-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 17-10-2 ATS vs AFC WEST. NE 97 ATS after BUFF. NE 9-11-1 ATS before BUFF. NE 20-5 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. NE 2-8 ATS L10 after div ROAD gm. One thing you get used to when you play for NE is the cold weather. Just ask anyone who has played for NE in the past. You adjust very quickly if you want to have a career in NE. LAC is a warm weather team and may look at NE quite lightly just as BUFF did for 1 ½ qtrs. But LAC is not as talented as BUFF and may find themselves in a hole vs NE that they can’t get out of. LAC put together BIG drives and the DEN DEF didn’t make a stop. LAC QB Justin Herbert spread the ball around to 10different receivers that kept the DEN DEF guessing. But NE is scrappy bunch and they have nothing to lose. NE can play spoiler here as LAC is still battling DEN for a playoff spot. LAC may look at this game as an easy win and their next game @LV as easy too but, when it comes to the NFL they is usually no lay downs. Teams play hard and knowing that NE made some mistakes last game @BUFF, they may be looking to correct them finishing out the season. All the stats in this game favor LAC but I feel strongly that LAC wins by a fg at best, especially if the weather is cold and if snow is added to the mix. These two teams played @NE in wk 13 with LAC as a ROAD FAV-6. The game ended up being won by LAC 6-0 on 2fgs by LAC. I could see that definitely happening again. I like NE as the HOME DOG here to keep it close.    

THE PICK: NE+5

Saturday December 28^th, 2024 4:30pm

Denver Broncos (9-6), (10-5) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), (9-6) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS                                  DEN+3

LW on TNF, DEN blew the game BIG TIME. I liked DEN+3 @ LAC because DEN has been a nice surprise and LAC hasn’t beaten anyone. DEN was up 24-13 and everything folded for DEN. LAC scored 3tds in the 2^nd half while DEN managed just a fg and LAC won 34-27. The DEN DEF collapsed and made LAC look like gangbusters. LW, CINNCY-6 @HOME did what they needed to do vs CLEV to stay alive in the playoff picture. But, CINNCY needs to keep winning. There was no doubt that CINNCY was winning this game when they were leading 17-0 at the half. But in the 2^nd half, it looked as though CLEV might get the backdoor cover. CLEV got a td but then had 2INTS and then turned the ball over on downs 2x and that was the game. CINNCY almost contributed to the back door cover by a fumble deep in CLEV territory when the score was 17-6. But CINNCY added a late td to open up the scoring and win 24-6. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow spread the ball around nicely to 6different receivers and got some support from CINNCY RB Chase Brown who rushed for 91yds on 18carries. L11 DEN vs CINNCY, DEN 7-4 SU but 4-6-1 ATS. DEN 17-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DEN 25-32-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 34-44-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 7-11 ATS after LAC. DEN 10-14 ATS before KC. DEN 19-2 ATS w/rest off SU loss. DEN 6-7 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD Su win. DEN 10-8-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 8-4-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. CINNCY 13-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 51-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 32-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 20-7-1 ATS L28 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 11-9 ATS after CLEV. CINNCY 12-5-1 ATS before PITT. CINNCY 9-10-1 ATS L20 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 10-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. Both of these teams have something to play for. CINNCY has an outside chance at making the playoffs but can’t afford to lose. Granted, the last game was vs CLEV but CLEV has nothing to play for except spoiler. Burrow plays every game like it’s important and he leads the team by example. Look at his stats, 39tds & 8INTs. After playing well for most of the season, the DEN DEF has forgotten how to play football. They were non-existent in the game vs LAC and lost a game that should have been easily theirs. They beat INDY because INDY helped beat themselves with costly mistakes and turnovers. CINNCY doesn’t turn the ball over. The DEN DEF has to show up and after a little breather, they need to get back on track. But Burrow doesn’t make mistakes and he is probably in the film room studying the DEN DEF right now. CINNCY #1 PASS OFF vs DEN #19 PASS DEF. DEN has had a nice season on which to build a future on but they are showing late in the season that this group is not accustomed to winning. DEN is in bounceback mode after the loss @LAC but they are up against one of the best passers in the NFL who still has something to play for. Burrow is all about winning and he has many passing options at his disposal. He will certainly be bringing his A game to the contest. I like CINNCY winning here by a td.  

THE PICK: CINNCY-3

Saturday December 28^th, 2024 8:00pm

Arizona Cardinals (7-8), (8-7) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (9-6), (9-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS                        ARZ+6

LW, ARZ was knocked out of the playoff picture by CAR in OT, @CAR, 36-30. ARZ made a valiant effort to tie this game up at 30-30 in the last minute with a drive that culminated with a fg and sending it to OT. ARZ RB James Conner could not be stopped with 117yds rushing & 1td on 15carries. Unfortunately he injured his knee and left the game. ARZ as a team rushed for 206yds & 2tds on 29carries. LW, LAR was @NYJ and it was cold. LAR has never been a cold weather team and were having problems moving the ball. LAR managed 1td and a missed extra point in the 1^st half and were trailing NYJ 9-6. However, LAR RB Kyren Williams wasn’t affected by the cold as he rushed for 122yds &1td on 23 carries. This helped take a lot of pressure off of QB Matthew Stafford who only threw 19passes all game. The LAR DEF allowed 0pts from the NYJ the rest of the game and LAR managed to get 2fgs & 1td in the 4^th qtr to win 19-9. I had like LAR-3 in this game and I thought that LAR would whitewash the NYJ but, the cold had temporarily halted the LAR OFF. However, it was a nice win in the cold for LAR. L17 ARZ @LAR, ARZ 10-7 SU & 9-7-1 ATS. L27 ARZ vs LAR, ROAD 17-10 ATS. L17 ARZ vs LAR, ARZ 4-13 ATS. L23 ARZ vs LAR, LAR 15-8 SU & 14-9 ATS. L10 ARZ vs LAR, LAR 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS. ARZ 11-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. ARZ 33-28 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. ARZ 50-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 33-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 7-9 ATS before SF. ARZ 8-10 ATS off SU FAV loss. ARZ 22-9-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 0-9 ATS L9 vs >.500 div opp. 11-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD DOG 14<pts vs opp off SU win. LAR 12-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAR 33-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 33-26 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. LAR 42-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 8-13 ATS before SEA. LAR 9-6 ATS w/div revenge. LAR 9-24 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ RB James Conner is questionable for this game which puts a lot of pressure on ARZ QB Kyler Murray if Conner doesn’t play. ARZ has nothing to play for except jobs and possibly the role as spoiler. LAR have everything to play for because they are playing for the NFC WEST title against SEA which is still in it too. LAR & SEA play @LAR next week possibly for all the marbles depending on how this game plays out. LAR also has a revenge factor going against ARZ. In week 2, LAR played @ARZ with ARZ crushing LAR 41-10. In that game ARZ rushed for 231yds & 1td on 40carries. For LAR, they were without WRs Kupp & Nacua which makes a BIG difference on OFF. If that game doesn’t play on the minds of the coaches and players of LAR, then nothing will. LAR started the season 1-4 and everyone thought that the season was a wash for them. But that was before WRs Puca Nacua & Cooper Kupp came back from injuries. Since then, LAR has won 8 out of 10games and is in good position to win the NFC WEST and get a HOME game to start the playoffs. As for ARZ, they started the season 6-4 and it looked like they would be able to run to the playoffs but they have lost 4 out of their last 5games and they were not out of contention for the playoffs with loss @ARZ. In the off-season, the team should look to fill holes on DEF which gave up a lot of points during the season. ARZ #20 TOT DEF w/#22 RUSH DEF & #14 PASS DEF. Look for LAR RB Kyren Williams to run wild and take some pressure off of QB Matthew Stafford as he spreads the ball around to different receivers but has his favorite receivers Kupp & Nacua open for devastating yards against ARZ. Since LAR has something to play for on top of the revenge factor, LAR should win this game by 10pts unless they don’t take ARZ seriously and let them run wild. Then, it will be disappointment for LAR. LAR needs to shut ARZ down early and often and take control of this game. Could LAR put on an OFF show like they did vs BUFF? You never know. But, I like them to win this one and play SEA tough in the next game.     

THE PICK: LAR-6

Sunday December 29^th, 2024 1:00pm

New York Jets (4-11), (4-10-1) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (2-5-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (12-3), (10-5) ATS, (7-0) HOME, (5-2) ATS                             NYJ+9 ½

LW, BUFF -12 ½ @HOME took NE a little lightly. NE stormed out to a 14-0 lead but it didn’t last as BUFF woke up. BUFF scored 24straight points to recapture the lead 24-14 before NE closed the gap with a td late, 24-21. BUFF used their run game for 173yds & 1td on 30 carries to keep the NE DEF guessing. LW, NYJ were @HOME +3 playing the LAR. LAR needs to keep winning to get into the playoffs but, NYJ were playing tough in the cold weather and were leading at halftime, 9-6. But, what has been typical NYJ fashion, NYJ scored 0points the rest of the game and gave up 1td & 2fgs to LAR in the 4^th qtr to lose 19-9. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers had a strip sack in the 4^th qtr that LAR turned around and scored a td off of to open the scoring for LAR, 16-9. L17 NYJ @BUFF, NYJ 7-10 SU & 8-9 ATS. L30 NYJ vs BUFF, NYJ 14-16 SU & 15-15 ATS. L26 NYJ vs BUFF, NYJ 11-15 ATS. L30 NYJ vs BUFF, FAV 15-14 ATS 1PICK’EM. NYJ 9-15-1 ATS before MIA. NYJ 40-33-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 48-45-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 30-28-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 10-11 ATS L21 after scoring <10pts. BUFF 11-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 28-41 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 42-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-33 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 22-19 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 11-9 ATS 1NL after NE. BUFF 12-10 ATS 1NL before NE. NYJ have nothing to lose as their season has been long over for some time. The only thing NYJ is playing for is jobs and a role as possible spoiler. NYJ didn’t come off as spoiler vs LAR but vs BUFF they may be able to knock them down to a lower seed. These two teams played each other in week 6 on MNF @NYJ with BUFF winning 23-20. That game saw a 20-20 tie in the 4^th qtr with NYJ missing 2fgs down the stretch and BUFF missing one. Then BUFF succeeded with their fg only to have NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers throw an INT to basically end the game for the NYJ. NYJ #4 TOT DEF w/#16 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. There is talent on the NYJ team and they do not give up a lot of points on DEF but QB Aaron Rodgers is not the same QB as he was 5years ago and doesn’t see the field as well as he used to. BUFF needs to stay ahead of BALT for the #2 seed because a tie breaker would go to BALT. After this game when BUFF has the #2 seed locked up, they can rest their starters. I like BUFF to win this game but NYJ will be giving it their all and BUFF will walk away with a close victory. I like NYJ with the points here.  

THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½

Las Vegas Raiders (3-12), (5-10) ATS, (1-7) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (5-10), (6-9) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (4-4) ATS             NO+1

LW, LV @HOME finally put together a decent game and broke their 10game losing streak to beat the JAGS 19-14. LV was leading this game 13-7 at the half but were losing 14-13 going into the 4^th qtr. Along the way, LV missed a fg that would have given them a bigger cushion, 6-7. After LV scored their td to make the score 19-14 with the 2pt conversion no good, LV and their fans had to hold their breath as JAGS squandered 2possessions that help cement the LV win. Neither the JAGS or LV, could get their run game going and neither team had a QB that was dominating. LV just got lucky at the end. LW, NO was +14 @GB on MNF. GB won the game 34-0. It was a total domination of GB as I said this game had the makings of a blowout. Without QB Derek Carr & RB Alvin Kamara, NO was already at a deficit before the game even started. The NO DEF put zero pressure on GB QB Jordan Love as he spread the ball around to 7different receivers almost at will. L6 LV vs NO, LV 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS. LV 2-13-2 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. LV 6-15-1 ATS before LAC. LV 25-47-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 21-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LV 3-20-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 1-16 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. NO 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. NO 6-13 ATS before TB. NO 30-45-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 31-30-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 12-20-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC. NO 16-12-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & returning HOME. NO 10-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs <.500opp. This is another one of those games that no one cares. LV can’t even get the draft pick right. LW, they played like they were playing in the SuperBowl. LV has a lot of holes to fill and their HC Antonio Pierce may not be around for the changes. This team has certainly not responded to any of his messages this season. On DEF, LV can’t stop anyone decent. As for NO, they have been a complete disappointment after week 2. The season started out so promising and things wet south very fast. NO QB Derek Carr, RB Alvin Kamara and a host of other starters are questionable for this game which makes it even less worth watching. Both of these teams have major deficiencies and LV certainly needs a better QB that can lead this team. LV also needs a better O-LINE as they have given up a combined 49sacks. This could have been a revenge game for NO QB Derek Carr but he is injured and shouldn’t even think of playing the rest of the season. This is a PICK’em game but I like LV to win by a fg or more.   

THE PICK: LV-1  

Indianapolis Colts (7-8), (7-7-1) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ New York Giants (2-13), (3-12) ATS, (0-8) HOME, (1-7) ATS                       NYG+8

LW, INDY rolled out to a 38-7 lead @HOME vs TENN and watched as TENN mounted a comeback that made INDY & their fans mighty nervous. TENN scored tds on 3straight possessions and INDY missed a fg and all of a sudden the score was INDY 38-30 with TENN having the ball. Fortunately for INDY, TENN hat the ball at their own 11yd line with :03 left in the game. If TENN had more time, they probably would have scored again. This overshadowed the fact that INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 218yds & 3tds on 29carries. INDY as a team rushed for 335yds & 4tds on 50 carries. In this game INDY QB Anthony Richardson passed 7/11 for 131yds & 1td & 1INT. LW, NYG were +8 ½ @ATL. I liked ATL to roll over NYG because ATL is playing for the NFC SOUTH title. It actually started out well for NYG as they scored a td first and led 7-0. But the roof caved in and ATL scored 34straight points to win 34-7. In the process, NYG QB Drew Lock threw 2PICK6. NYG played catchup for this game and the running game was thrown out the window. The NYG DEF had no answer for ATL rookie QB Miachael Penix who got his 1^st start. L5 INDY vs NYG, INDY 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. INDY 12-14 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 39-42-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 39-36-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 15-2 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV vs <.500opp. INDY 8-9-1 ATS after TENN. INDY 6-11 ATS before JAGS. INDY 2-13-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 7-10-1 ATS as a FAV >7pts. INDY 11-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. INDY 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. NYG 12-12 ATS before PHILLY. NYG 21-30-1 ATS L52 as a HOME DOG. NYG 51-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 3932 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 5-16 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 12-11-1 ATS vs .333>non-conf opp. NYG 9-5 ATS vs <.500 opp off SUATS win. The weather for this game will be in the 50s but there will be some rain. You know that INDY will be doing a lot of rushing on OFF with RB Jonathan Taylor leading the charge. Right behind him will be QB Anthony Richardson who is a runner first, then a passer.   INDY is still in the playoff hunt but has no way of overcoming HOU in the AFC SOUTH. Even though HOU is staggering into the playoffs, HOU beat INDY 2x during the season to decide any ties. NYG QB Drew Lock is scheduled to start vs INDY even though he had 2PICK6 last week @ATL. Both of these teams are bad vs the run. INDY #28 RUSH DEF & NYG #31 RUSH DEF. The NYG have absolutely nothing to play for except the #1 Pick in the 2025 draft. But NYG can play spoiler here as INDY needs to keep winning to keep their playoff hopes alive. We all know that INDY will be running and that is what NYG should anticipate. Because of the weather, I think this game will be closer than the spread suggests. I like INDY winning by 3-7 pts but 8pts is just a little high for a team that just hung on vs TENN. NYG will be playing hard because it is their last game HOME gm of the season and they would like to give a good showing. But I feel that INDY will win the game in a squeaker.  

THE PICK: NYG+8  

Dallas Cowboys (7-8), (7-8) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), (9-6) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (3-4) ATS                         DAL+9 ½  

LW, on SNF DAL played like gangbusters @HOME vs TB. I liked TB-3 ½ because they have something to play for in the NFC SOUTH title and on paper they are better than DAL. But even though DAL only managed 31yds rushing, DAL QB Cooper Rush was able to dismantle the TB secondary and win the game for DAL. The DAL DEF played well too getting 1INT & 1recovered fumble when TB was mounting their comeback. The DAL DEF sacked TB QB Baker Mayfield 4x and won the game 26-24 after leading 23-14 at halftime. LW, I liked PHILLY-3 ½ @WASH. I felt strongly that PHILLY would roll but PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion early in the game and that hampered PHILLY’s ability to score at will. Even with PHILLY leading 27-14 in the 3^rd qtr, I had a feeling that the lead was not safe. QB Kenny Pickett was in for Hurts and he showed his inabilities at QB that have made him a backup. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley did the best he could with 150yds rushing & 2tds on 29carries. But he couldn’t do it all and PHILLY managed only 2fgs the rest of the way instead of tds. WASH mounted a comeback and scored 3tds in the 4^th qtr and a 2pt conversion. The last td for WASH was scored with :06 left and with the 2pt conversion had WASH ahead 36-33. That was the game right there as PHILLY needed one play to stop WASH but couldn’t come up with it in the closing seconds. L17 DAL @PHILLY, DAL 10-7 SU & 10-7 ATS. L35 DAL vs PHILLY, ROAD 18-17 ATS. L35 DAL vs PHILLY, DOG 15-20 ATS. L17 DAL vs PHILLY, DAL 10-7 SU & 10-7 ATS. DAL 14-10-1 ATS before WASH. DAL 31-46-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 35-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 30-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 8-16 SU & 8-16 ATS in gm 16 since 2000. DAL 14-20 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 12-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts vs opp off SU loss. DAL 10-9 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. DAL 0-6 ATS vs .500>conf opp off SU FAV loss. PHILLY 8-13-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. PHILLY 38-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 43-43 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 40-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 8-10 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 9-18 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 1-9 ATS as a div FAV after allowing 35>pts. PHILLY 0-8 ATS as a div FAV >2pts after allowing 35>pts. PHILLY 1-9 ATS off SU loss vs conf opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 3-9 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. The worst news for PHILLY right now is that QB Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol. He is listed as questionable but for PHILLY it would be wise to have him sit this one out. It is obvious PHILLY QB Kenny Pickett is not the answer to lead PHILLY but he too is listed as questionable with a rib injury sustained in the loss @WASH. Tanner McKee is listed as the 3^rd string QB if Pickett is not available. DAL is out f the playoffs but is still playing for jobs and the possibility of the role as spoiler. QB Cooper Rush has shown that he can win games and could possibly have a job next season starting somewhere in the NFL. However, moving forward there are lot of holes to fill on the DAL roster and a lot of question marks with guys coming back from injuries. These two teams met in week 10 @DAL with PHILLY whooping DAL 34-6. There may be some revenge on the minds of DAL and it may come to fruition if PHILLY is starting a 3^rd string QB. If Hurts is not 100%, why risk him getting injured for a game that doesn’t matter much. PHILLY only has an outside shot at the #1seed in the NFC and it is not in their control. If this game gets out of control and DAL is winning, PHILLY should take RB Saquon Barkley out to rest him as well. The playoffs are what Barkley was brought to PHILLY for, not the regular season. As for this game, I think DAL has a good shot at winning the game and I like the BIG point spread. Take DAL and the points and don’t be surprised if DAL wins.   

THE PICK: DAL+9 ½

Carolina Panthers (4-11), (7-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), (9-6) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (4-3) ATS       CAR+8

LW, I had liked TB-3 ½ @DAL on SNF. But DAL wasn’t having any of that and took a 23-14 halftime lead. TB tried to come back in the 2^nd half but an INT & a fumbled derailed the TB comeback and DAL won 26-24. The DAL DEF played impeccable. TB did hold the DAL run game to 31yds but DAL QB Cooper Rush picked the TB secondary apart for 26/35 292 yds & 1td. TB QB Baker Mayfield did all he could and even passed fo 303yds & 2tds & even ran for 42yds but the deficit at halftime was too much to overcome for TB. LW, CAR played spoiler @HOME to ARZ. I liked CAR+4 ½ because I felt strongly that the run game for CAR would be hard to stop by ARZ. CAR rushed for a combined 243yds & 3tds on 36carries. I also felt strongly that the ARZ run game would be hard to stop and if ARZ RB James Conner didn’t get injured, ARZ would still be rushing. ARZ rushed for 206 yds which is pretty damn good too and CAR had a hard time stopping. I also felt the game could be a shootout. It was and it went into OT with RB Chuba Hubbard not making the same mistake he did vs TB a few weeks ago. He scored on a run in OT as CAR knocked ARZ out of the playoff picture with a 36-30 OT win. It was a nice win for CAR. L17 CAR @TB, CAR 8-9 SU & 10-7 ATS. L35 CAR vs TB, FAV 20-15 ATS. L11 CAR vs TB, CAR 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS. L24 CAR vs TB, ROAD 15-9 ATS. CAR 1-0 ATS off SU OT win. CAR 9-14-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CAR 34-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 35-23 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 45-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 14-10 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 13-10 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. CAR 10-3 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. CAR 14-9 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 5-0 ATS off SU HOME DOG win vs .500>opp. CAR 7-12 ATS before ATL. CAR 3-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 6-20 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 11-17-1 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. TB 9-14-1 ATS in 1^st in BB HGs. TB 30-37-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 36-38-2 ATS @HOME in  DEC. TB 30-36-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 12-11 ATS before NO. TB 10-10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 14-1 ATS as a FAV <11pts off SU non-div FAV loss. TB 9-4 ATS vs <.400div opp. These two teams played @CAR in week 13 with TB winning in OT, 26-23. In that game RB Chuba Hubbard fumbled a certain 1^st down deep in TB territory in OT. It would have set up an easy fg for CAR. However, TB then took the ball and went down the field and kicked a fg to win. This will definitely be on the minds of the players for CAR. It was a hard fought game and CAR should have won. For TB, they are on a bounceback and are still playing for the NFC SOUTH crown against ATL. Either TB or ATL will make the playoffs and not both. The winner of the NFC SOUTH will certainly be hosting a playoff game as the winner of the SOUTH division. TB has a decent DEF vs the run. TB #10 RUSH DEF. But in the game vs CAR, TB rushed for 236yds & 1td on 39carries while TB only gave up 78yds & 1td on 21carries to CAR. CAR can play spoiler here and there is the revenge factor for the previous game. TB has something to play for after the loss @DAL and the NFC SOUTH crown. This is no pushover game for TB and I don’t expect CAR to go down without a fight. CAR has a chance to make it very difficult for a division rival so they need to play their A game. I like this game to be a grudge match for CAR and CAR QB Bryce Young playing a good game. CAR RB Chuba Hubbard will give it his all remembering his fumble. TB will get yardage on the ground but this game will again come down to a fg. I would be very surprised if it is a blowout by either team. I like CAR with the points here.     

THE PICK: CAR+8

Tennessee Titans (3-12), (2-13) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12), (7-7-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (4-3) ATS                      TENN+1

LW, TENN was down 38-7 @INDY before they woke up and found out that there were involved in a football game. TENN then scored 3straight tds with 2 2pts conversions to bring the score INDY 38-30. TENN the got the ball back with :03 left in the game at their own 11yd line, game over. If TENN had more time, they may have tied it up. But if you look at the stats for TENN it is mostly garbage time and it didn’t help that TENN QB Mason Rudolph threw 3INTS which 2 of them were turned into 2tds by INDY. Both teams missed fgs but INDY should have never let TENN get back into this game. LW, JAGS were in a tight game @LV. Yeah really. This is another game that no one cared about but, again there are jobs to consider and guys need to play strong even if the records are terrible. JAGS probably could have won this game but 2lost fumbles in the 2^nd qtr derailed any chance of scoring at that point. The score was LV 13-7 at the half. In the 2^nd half LV missed a fg but both teams exchanged tds and the final score was LV 19-14. JAGS QB Mac Jones didn’t have any turnovers and played a solid game but the DEF for JAGS is pitiful and LV took advantage of whatever gifts they had received from the JAGS. L17 TENN @JAGS, TENN 8-9 SU & 8-9 ATS. L31 TENN vs JAGS, 15-16 ATS. L35 TENN vs JAGS , DOG 18-17 ATS. L18 TENN vs JAGS, TENN 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS. TENN 12-12-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. TENN 31-38-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 28-37-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 29-37-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 3-10 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN 11-10 ATS after INDY. TENN 11-13-1 ATS before HOU. JAGS 4-16-1 ATS before INDY. JAGS 30-22 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. JAGS 23-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. JAGS 33-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 11-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 9-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 10-3 ATS @HOME vs div opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. No one cares about this game except for the players playing, the coaches and maybe some fans. The only other thing that matters is draft position for next season. JAGS have their QB so they are not worried about what the order will be for the top five. But TENN is still a question mark @QB and they may be looking elsewhere at the position for next season. To say that both teams are a disappointment this season is an understatement. Everything that could go wrong did for both teams and they are looking at major changes in the off-season. These teams met in week 14 @TENN with JAGS winning a nail biter 10-6. TENN was winning this game going into the 4^th qtr but JAGS scored a fg and a td on 2straight possessions to take the lead 10-6. TENN Couldn’t muster any points on 3straight drives and that was the ball game. JAGS have the worst DEF in the NFL, JAGS #32 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #32 PASS DEF. TENN has a better DEF but what does it matter? Look at their record. This game is a toss up in so many ways. I have to go JAGS because they play better @HOME then TENN plays on the ROAD. Even though TENN may have revenge on their minds for the loss in week 14, do they have the horses to compete? JAGS have an OFF that can score if Mac Jones plays decent. He too is looking for a job for next season and if he plays well these next two games, a team may consider him. Take JAGS in this game because the QB is better even though the DEF is bad. Could be a shootout here with the game being decided by a fg at the end. 

THE PICK: JAGS-1

Sunday December 29^th, 2024 4:00pm

Miami Dolphins (7-8), (6-7-2) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (3-12), (4-11) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS                            CLEV+6 ½  

LW, MIA @HOME beat a depleted SF team, 29-17. MIA rushed for 166yds & 1td on 35carries vs SF which helped keep the ball out of SF’s hands. This game was MIA 13-10 at the half but the MIA DEF only allowed SF to rush for 81yds which included 26yds by their QB, Brock Purdy. MIA did not turn the ball over in this game which helped them win. MIA was limited at WR because of injuries. LW, CLEV+6 was playing @CINNCY. I like CINNCY because they are still challenging for a playoff spot. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow never gives up and neither does the rest of the team. When the score was CINNCY 17-6, it looked like CLEV might get the backdoor cover when Burrow fumbled the ball deep in CLEV territory and CLEV recovered. CLEV had a nice drive the other way but turned the ball over on downs and CINNCY then added a td for good measure. I never had a doubt that CINNCY would win this game but, the backdoor cover is always there. L9 MIA vs CLEV, MIA 4-5 SU & 2-6-1 ATS. MIA 9-8 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 18-7 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. MIA 30-56-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 27-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 4-7 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. MIA 11-10-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 10-2 ATS off DD Su win vs <.500opp. MIA 17-13 ATS before div ROAD gm. CLEV 17-22-1 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 7-13-1 ATS after CINNCY. CLEV 6-11-1 ATS before BALT. CLEV 18-31-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 34-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 2-9 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs non-div opp. CLEV 5-15-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 7-14-2 ATS off SU div loss. MIA is still in the playoff hunt but, they need to keep winning. CLEV’s season has long been over. At times, you don’t know which MIA team is going to show up. They lost in the cold @GB and they lost @HOU two weeks ago. Had they won at least one of those games, MIA would be in a better position for the playoffs & not having to need help from others on top of winning their last two games. MIA has injuries to players on both sides of the ball and that may hamper their success even if they make the playoffs. They have to win this game for anything to matter in the game @NYJ next week. CLEV is stuck with QB Deshaun Watson and right now has Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starter for this game. He has 0tds & 5INTs this season in 5games played. MIA should be able to harass Robinson because he is not that accurate and is sort of a gunslinger when it comes to QB. MIA has to stop the run in this game which means CLEV RB Jerome Ford who is easily capable of rushing for over 100yds. MIA #7 RUSH DEF.  MIA needs to put it all on Robinson’s shoulders and then create some turnovers. CLEV TE David Njoku is out for this game and WR Jerry Jeudy is questionable. So right there that is two less targets for Robinson. Lay the points here as MIA wins by 7-10 points and keeps their playoff hopes alive. By the way, if MIA doesn’t make the playoffs and somehow loses these two games, don’t be surprised if MIA fires HC Mike McDaniel.  

THE PICK: MIA-6 ½

Green Bay Packers (11-4), (9-6) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (13-2), (10-3-2) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (6-2) ATS                    GB+1

On MNF, GB did what they had to do and that was put on a show @HOME vs NO. I liked GB-14 @HOME vs NO because, let’s face it, NO was done a while ago and GB is fighting for the NFC NORTH wild card spot. GB won the game easily 34-0. NO didn’t put up much of a fight in this one, giving up a combined 188yds rushing & 3tds to whoever touched the ball for GB. NO never even attempted a fg in this game which tells you what a decline they have gone through since the 1^st two games of the season. This had blowout written all over it because GB is playing for a playoff spot and GB delivered. LW, MINN was in a dogfight @SEA. I liked MINN-3 @SEA because like GB, MINN is fighting not only for a playoff spot but MINN is fighting for the #1seed in the NFC. MINN QB Sam Darnold is having a career season and is winning games for MINN that no one thought he would. This game had started out with MINN leading 17-7 but SEA has a lot to gain as well and is also fighting for a playoff spot. SEA would not go away quietly and it came down to the last minute of the game with MINN leading 27-24. There was miscommunication between SEA QB Geno Smith & WR DK Metcalf and Geno threw an INT for the MINN win 27-24. But this game was that close. MINN held SEA to 59yds rushing but Geno picked the MINN DEF for 3tds. L17 GB @MINN, GB 9-8 SU & 9-8 ATS. L35 GB vs MINN, HOME 19-15-1 ATS. L25 GB vs MINN, DOG 14-10 ATS 1PICK’EM. GB 21-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 40-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 38-30-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 6-9-3 ATS before CHI. GB 18-8-1 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs .666>opp. GB 14-14-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 2-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs div opp. GB 8-14-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. GB 3-13 ATS as a DOG w/revenge. GB 3-12 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenge. MINN 10-12-1 ATS before DET. MINN 36-37-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 34-44-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 26-32-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 10-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. MINN 6-10 ATS @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 6-12 ATS vs .666>conf opp. These two teams met in week 4 @GB with MINN winning a squeaker, 31-29. That game was a slugfest with GB QB Jordan Love throwing for 4tds & 3INTS while MINN QB Sam Darnold threw for 3tds & 1INT. GB had 2missed fgs and MINN had opened a 28-7 lead only to see GB mount a comeback and make the final score MINN 31-29. Both of these teams have something to play for this week and MINN has more at stake than GB. Although a loss for either team would be devastating, MINN is still in contention for the #1seed in the NFC. MINN #2 RUSH DEF. MINN has a strong DEF vs the RUSH but is susceptible to the pass. GB QB Jordan Love cannot make mistakes in this game and either can MINN QB Sam Darnold. Both of these teams are talented but with MINN better on DEF against the run, I have to give the edge to MINN. Turnovers will be huge in this game and I feel strongly that it will come down to a fg at the end of the game with MINN getting that fg as time expires. I would be completely surprised if this game were a blowout by either team. But I like MINN in another squeaker.    

THE PICK: MINN-1

Sunday December 29^th, 2024 8:20pm

Atlanta Falcons (8-7), (7-8) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (10-5), (9-6) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (6-2) ATS       ATL+4

LW, ATL started rookie QB Michael Penix instead of Kirk Cousins. I liked ATL-8 ½ @HOME vs NYG. ATL beat NYG 34-7, a BIG so what! ATL & Penix did what they were supposed to do and that is beat a team that is terrible and depleted. ATL did just that. Penix got a confidence booster in the win but still managed to throw an INT. ATL is still in the hunt for the NFC SOUTH title and a spot in the playoffs. The ATL DEF had 2PICK6 against NYG QB Drew Lock. I certainly didn’t think WASH would beat PHILLY LW, but they did. WASH came back from a 27-14 deficit and they managed to knock out PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts. If Hurts had a stayed in the game and not got a concussion, there is no way WASH win s this game but with Kenny Pickett as the PHILLY QB, WASH had a chance and they took it. WASH scored 22pts in the 4^th qtr while PHILLY managed 2fgs and WASH won 36-33. Kudos to WASH QB Jayden Daniels who led a last minute drive when WASH was down 33-28, to throw a td with :06 left and steal the game for PHILLY 36-33. WASH did give up 211yds rushing but put a hold on Pickett who has shown an inability to lead. It was a good win for WASH who are still in the hunt for a wild card spot. L9 ATL vs WASH, ATL 6-3 SU but 4-5 ATS. ATL 8-8 ATS as a DOG on SNF. ATL 10-10 ATS before CAR. ATL 41-39 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 35-38 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 10-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG after allowing 7<pts. ATL 3-0 ATS AWAY after allowing 7<pts. ATL 9-6 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. ATL 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG >3pts after allowing 7<pts. ATL 0-6 ATS L6 off DD SU win. WASH 7-2 ATS on SNF vs opp off BB SU wins. WASH 9-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. WASH 11-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. WASH 26-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 34-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 11-14 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs non-div. WASH 8-15 ATS after PHILLY. WASH 15-10 ATS before DAL. WASH 5-10 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 3-9 ATS as a FAV >1pt vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 19-6 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 3-12 ATS as a conf FAV off div gm. WASH 2-8 ATS as a conf FAV >3pts off div gm. This is the game that QB Michael Penix comes down to Earth. WASH still has something to play for and that is a playoff spot. ATL is a faker of a team not having beat anyone that is good. You could say the same for WASH but WASH QB Jayden Daniels has more NFL experience than Penix and has already been in some tight situations. He could have easily folded last week vs PHILLY but showed leadership qualities in that last drive that some veteran QBs have not shown. The one thing that worries me about WASH in this game is their RUN DEF. ATL #12 RUSH OFF vs WASH #29 RUSH DEF. With an inexperienced QB like Penix, ATL will try to run as much as possible to take pressure off of him so that he will not feel like he has to win the game all by himself. WASH is mighty bad vs the run. WASH should feel good that they just beat PHILLY. ATL is just holding on. I like WASH here laying the points. I like WASH winning by a td as long as they don’t give up a lot of yards on the ground and don’t turn the ball over. Daniels has to keep spreading the ball around to keep the ATL DEF on their toes and the WASH DEF has to pressure Penix so that he makes mistakes.    

THE PICK: WASH-4

Monday December 30^th, 2024 8:15pm

Detroit Lions (13-2), (10-4-1) ATS, (7-0) AWAY, (6-0-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (6-9), (5-10) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS                                 SF+3 ½  

LW, I liked DET-6 ½ @CHI. DET toyed with CHI and even threw in a fake fumble for good measure. I was a little worried that w/o RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs might not be able to handle the workload. He did fine vs CHI with 109yds rushing & 1td on 23carries. CHI put up a fight in the 2^nd qtr with 2tds but other than that this wasn’t much of a game as DET won 34-17. DET QB Jared Goff was 23/32, 336yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. LW, SF needed to win @MIA to stay in the playoff picture. Knowing that, I liked them +1 ½ @MIA. But MIA needed the game as well to stay in the playoff picture and something had to give. The SF DEF couldn’t stop the MIA run game to the tune of 166yds & 1td on 30carries. That was the BIG difference. Also, the SF DEF didn’t put any pressure on MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa with 0sacks, as he moved MIA up and down the field. SF QB Brock Purdy was sacked 3x, threw 1INT and was passing most of the game. MIA took control of this game in the 2^nd half and won 29-17 after leading at the half 13-10. SF was officially knocked out of the playoff picture after reaching the SuperBowl last season. L8 DET vs SF, DET 1-7 SU & 2-5-1 ATS. DET 12-15-2 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. DET 25-27 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 37-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 1-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. DET 10-4 ATS on MNF. DET 10-11-1 ATS after CHI. DET 12-11-1 ATS before MINN. DET 16-6-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. DET 5-13-1 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. DET 4-13-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV off div gm. DET 13-1 ATS off DD ATS win. SF 7-14 ATS before ARZ. SF 5-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. SF 11-3 ATS vs .333>opp. SF 16-17-1 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. SF 37-32-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 28-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 12-17 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non div opp. SF 3-9 ATS vs non-div conf opp w/revenge off SUATS win. SF 9-3 ATS @HOME vs .500>conf opp. DET needs a win here to keep pace with MINN and to be ready for the BIG showdown @HOME with MINN next week. That game will likely decide the #1seed and the loser may fall to the #5seed. But right now, if I know DET HC Dan Campbell, he is telling his team all week how last season in the NFC Championship, SF stole victory from DET to advance to the SuperBowl. This is a revenge game for him and he will pull out all the stops like he did vs DAL, CHI, etc, all season. There is nothing in his playbook that is off limits. Fake punts, fake fgs and any other play that may catch an opponent off guard will certainly be in play this week. As for SF, they have nothing to play for after being eliminated from playoff contention with their loss @MIA LW. SF has just too many injuries to star players and not enough players filling the gaps to stop opposing OFFs from getting into the endzone. Plus, all the injuries on OFF have depleted QB Brock Purdy’s ability to spread the ball around and keep opposing DEFs guessing. They have been teeing off on him and his numbers are showing it. Also, the fact that SF OT Trent Williams has been hobbled by injuries is a major factor why Purdy has been under so much pressure this season as opposed to last season. William’s replacement has not been doing the job. DET #2 TOT OFF w/#6 RUSH OFF & #2 PASS OFF vs SF #2 TOT DEF w/#15 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. These stats are a little deceiving for SF because, just look at their record. SF may think that they can play spoiler but DET HC Dan Campbell will have none of that and SF just doesn’t have the players healthy to do it. I like DET to put a whooping on SF and get ready for the BIG showdown @HOME vs MINN. Lay the points here. 

THE PICK: DET-3 ½