2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 14
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYE: Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders
Thursday December 7th, 2023 8:15pm
New England Patriots (2-10), (2-9-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS NE+6
LW, PITT was surprised by an aggressive ARZ team that came ready to play. I originally felt that the return of James Connor would ignite ARZ and they could pull out a victory as a DOG+5 ½ . I was right. PITT was outmanned and outplayed and lost 24-10. Always go with your gut. LW, NE was @HOME vs a terrible LAC team. LAC is terrible and their HC should be dead man walking. It was terrible weather @NE but the NE DEF held tough and LAC was only able to mange 2fgs and rush for 29yds. NE didn’t get to LAC QB Justin Herbert 1x and he managed to move the ball up and down the field. But in bad weather the final score was LAC 6-0. L13 NE vs PITT, NE 9-4 SU & 8-4-1 ATS. NE 6-3 ATS vs .500> non-div opp on TNF. NE 5-2-1 ATS on TNF off no-div gm. NE 3-2-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. NE 1-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NE 24-17-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 36-35-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 12-4-1 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 5-10 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. NE 3-8 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. NE 11-4-2 ATS L16 vs AFC NORTH. NE 13-8 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 18-7 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. NE 1-9 ATS L10 as a DOG vs .500> opp. PITT 9-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PITT 7-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. PITT 4-4 ATS as a FAV <14pts on TNF. PITT 13-8-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PITT 45-31-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 50-40-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 18-18-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 18-22-1 ATS L41 vs AFC EAST. PITT 12-1 ATS @HOME after scoring 14<pts vs .<500 opp. PITT 0-4 ATS L4 off SU non-div HOME FAV loss. Pickett is probably out the rest of the season. Trubisky is in but, he makes a lot of mistakes. I bet you PITT wishes they still had QB Joshua Dobbs. NE is like NYJ in that it doesn’t matter who plays QB for them, they stink. NE Rhamondre Stevenson hurt his ankle and will be out of this one. That doesn’t help them. NE RB Ezekiel Elliott was listed as questionable for this game with a thigh injury but is very capable of getting it going. He would love to show the rest of the NFL that he still has it going. PITT is on a serious bounceback here and is still in play for some kind of playoff spot. Plus, after getting totally outplayed and beaten by a team that previously was 2-10 before their game last week, you think PITT is going to succumb to another team that is 2-10 this week? I don’t think so. PITT has to get their run game going early so that Trubisky doesn’t feel like he has to win this game on his won. That will be tough because the one thing that NE does right is defend against the run, NE #3 RUSH DEF. PITT has to get some momentum going because they can’t do a flop again against a team they should be able to beat. Trubisky has to show something here. No one expects NE to do anything but they have a decent DEF and they can run the ball. PITT #22 RUSH DEF. Believe it or not, I like PITT to win this game but, by a fg at best. NE plays tough no matter what and they have some good players. I can tell you this, in the off-season NE will go over the whole roster to see if there is quality and depth at every position on the team. Take NE & the points here because PITT wins by a fg.
THE PICK: NE+6
Sunday December 10th, 2023 1:00pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7), (6-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS TB+2 ½
LW, TB @HOME barely beat a terrible CAR team, 21-18. CAR had nothing to lose and the pressure was on TB. I liked CAR+5 ½ because I felt it was a 3pt game at best. CAR actually had chances to win this game but being CAR, they lost. TB needed a td in the 4th qtr to put CAR in a desperate situation being down by 2scores at 21-10. TB played not to lose. LW, ATL @NYJ barely beat NYJ, 13-8. This game had all the excitement of paint drying and two OFFs that seemed to go nowhere. There was 1td scored by both teams combined and that was the difference in the game. ATL QB Desmond Ridder didn’t turn the ball over but had the 1td pass that was the difference. ATL held NYJ to 2fgs but ATL RB Bijan Robinson was tackled in the endzone for a safety in the 1st qtr. L16 TB @ATL, TB 7-9 SU but 8-7-1 ATS. L25 ATL vs TB, HOME 13-11-1 ATS. L15 TB vs ATL, TB 6-9 ATS. L26 TB vs ATL, FAV 14-11-1 ATS. TB 18-11 ATS in 1wst of BB RGs. TB 7-3 ATS as a DOG <7pts in 1st of BB RGs. TB 12-4 ATS in 1st of BB RGs vs <.600 opp. TB 27-39-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 29-35-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 33-42-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 6-10-1 ATS after CAR. ATL 31-32-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 31-32-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 35-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 1-9 ATS @HOME vs <.800 DIV opp off SU win. ATL 2-12 ATS @HOME off SUATS FAV win. These two teams met @TB in wk 7 with ATL winning 16-13. TB was very sloppy in that game and had chances to win but instead lost the game. ATL ran allover TB in that game for 156yds &1td on 38carries. That included 38yds rushing & 1td on 6carries by QB Desmond Ridder. TB WR Mike Evans has been QB Baker Mayfield’s go-to-guy. It’s obvious when you look at the stats because Baker doesn’t look for anyone else unless Evans is really covered. This game is a total toss up as neither team has had any impressive wins during the season that they could hang their hat on. Both teams have work to do in the off-season and I’m taking the lesser of two evils with the points. I look for TB to avoid a season sweep in the series. If TB does win it will make things a little more interesting moving forward as the scenarios for whoever makes it to the playoffs from the NFC SOUTH.
THE PICK: TB+2 ½
Detroit Lions (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-8), (6-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CHI+3 ½
LW, DET was @NO and built up a 24-7 lead then watched as NO battled back and closed it to a 24-21 DET lead before each team exchanged tds and the final was DET 33-28. This game was even closer than the score because NO lost a fumble at the beginning of the 4th qtr that put them in a hole and DET scored a td on. Otherwise, DET may be coming off a loss here. CHI is coming off a bye and before that they were @MINN on MNF. The CHI DEF stopped MINN at every turn but the OFF only managed 4fgs. CHI won the game 12-10 but a win is a win. The CHI DEF had 4INTS of MINN QB Joshua Dobbs which stopped MINN from doing any real damage in this game. It was a mistake filled game for both teams as CHI QB Justin Fields also had 2lost fumbles which led to a td by MINN. L16 DET @ CHI, DET 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS. L27 DET vs CHI, DET 13-12-2 ATS. L29 DET vs CHI, HOME 16-11-2 ATS. L23 DET vs CHI, FAV 10-11-2 ATS. DET 10-14-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs, 1NL. DET 22-23 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 34-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 32-25-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 10-5 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. DET 10-6 ATS AWAY vs .333<opp. DET 15-10 ATS L25 vs .333<opp. DET 1-5 ATS vs .500<opp w/rest. CHI 5-9-2 ATS since 2007 after their bye. CHI 31-51 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 29-36 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 38-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 18-19 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. CHI 8-15-1 ATS 1NL w/rest. Is DET losing a little of their luster? These two teams met in wk11 @DET and CHI was beating the pants off of DET until about 4:15 of the 4th qtr until they self-destructed and lost 31-26. CHI was leading 26-14 up to that point. Do you think CHI has this on their minds? In the last four games the DET DEF, which started out the season pretty good has given up a lot of yardage and a lot of points. The DET OFF which looked like it could move up and down the field at will and score points at will, has looked stagnated at times. CHI #3 RUSH OFF vs DET #5 RUSH DEF. DET gave up 183yds rushing in that game then 109yds & 113yds in the last two games. CHI has talent but has not utilized it completely. This game would be a good scenario to knock a team down that has playoff aspirations, especially in their own division. I like the HOME TEAM here with the points.
THE PICK: CHI+3 ½
Indianapolis Colts (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS CINNCY+1
LW, INDY was in a battle @TENN. INDY should have lost 26-25 but TENN missed an extra point which sent the game into OT. INDY took advantage of bad special teams by TENN and an overrated TENN secondary which made INDY QB Gardner Minshew look like Tom Brady. INDY took full advantage and won in OT, 31-28. INDY knocked TENN RB Derrick Henry out of the game with a concussion as he was unstoppable up to that point. On MNF, CINNCY was a BIG DOG +8 ½ @JAGS. No one gave them a chance with QB Jake Browning at the helm. Well, he proved them wrong and looked great. He spread the ball around to 9different receivers and carved up the JAGS DEF. Browning didn’t turn the ball over and he was almost perfect for the night throwing 32/37 for 354yds & 1td. He also rushed for a td as well. CINNCY also ran the ball well for a team that was #32 in the NFL in rushing. But on MNF, you would have thought that CINNCY was in the Top 10 in rushing. The DEF for CINNCY did stop the run game for JAGS but this game went to OT and CINNCY won with a fg 34-31, after JAGS couldn’t do anything and had to punt. L10 INDY vs CINNCY, INDY 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS. INDY 3-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. INDY 14-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. INDY 39-38-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 37-34-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 7-8-1 ATS after TENN. INDY 10-9 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. INDY 25-16 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. CINNCY 12-8-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 49-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 47-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 19-5-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 8-0 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU wins. If Jake Browning continues to play like he did on MNF the rest of the season he will certainly have a starting QB job with an NFL team in 2024. Of course, it will not be with CINNCY but he showcased what he is capable of against a good team. If CINNCY plays as well as they did on MNF, they will put INDY back in their place. CINNCY should be pumped for this game because now they have a shot to run the table and get into a playoff spot. CINNCY needs to keep using their RBs effectively. CINNCY RB Chase Brown showed what he could do, rushing for 61yds on 9carries. Brown was drafted by the CFL. Maybe CINNCY has found a 1-2 RB punch. INDY could use RB Jonathan Taylor but he is out for this game. I like CINNCY here @HOME because they will certainly be inspired after no one gave them a chance on MNF. Their season is not done as others felt after QB Joe Burrow was injured. I like CINNCY to win here.
THE PICK: CINNCY+1
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4), (8-4) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (5-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (7-5), (5-7) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS JAGS+3
On MNF, JAGS @HOME had no answers on DEF for CINNCY QB Jake Browning. He carved them up piece by piece and he looked good doing it. JAGS went toe to toe with CINNCY when they shouldn’t have and lost in OT 34-31. JAGS were a BIG FAV-8 ½. JAGS in the process lost QB Trevor Lawrence & WR Chrisitian Kirk.(see below) Not only could the JAGS secondary not make a stop, CINNCY who is dead last in OFF rushing rushed for 156yds & 3tds on 31 touches. This kept the JAGS DEF guessing all night. LW, CLEV was @LAR and was also going toe to toe but a missed fg and an INT led them losing the game in the 4th qtr. CLEV was without DE Myles Garrett but LAR was able to move up and down the field and beat CLEV 36-19. CLEV QB Joe Flacco did pretty well in his 1st game in a while but the INT late was the killer. L9 JAGS vs CLEV, JAGS 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. JAGS 36-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 27-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 15-5 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 7-2 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. JAGS 3-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. CLEV12-11-3 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CLEV 16-30-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEv 9-16-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 14-12 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEV 8-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs non-div opp. CLEV 8-4 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS loss. CLEV 8-0 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. CLEV 5-0 ATS vs opp off SU HOME FAV loss. CLEV 8-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CLEV is coming off a loss @LAR. JAGS are coming off the HOME loss on MNF. DE Myles Garrett is currently not on the injury report so he is probably ready for this game. Would he have made a difference last week @LAR? He will make a difference this week. CLEV was moving down the field vs LAR but that INT was the killer. JAGS DEF looked bad vs CINNCY. CLEV has a better DEF than CINNCY. CLEV #1 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. For JAGS, WR Christian Kirk is out indefinitely with a core muscle injury sustained on the JAGS 1st play. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain and will definitely be out for this game. QB CJ Beathard will probably start this game. He came in after Lawrence was injured and left the game. He did throw 9/10 for 63yds and orchestrated the drive that led to a fg that tied the game and went into OT. But, a full game with this guy at the helm? CLEV is pissed and is watching their playoff hopes start to fade. CLEV needs a win in the worst way and is on a 2game losing streak. Flacco has done it before and he could do it again. CLEV is very talented and should get the win here. Lay the pts as CLEV should win by a td.
THE PICK: CLEV-3
Carolina Panthers (1-11) , (3-8-1) ATS, (0-7) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (5-7), (3-8-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (0-5) ATS CAR+5
LW, CAR played tough @TB but lost 21-18. CAR has nothing to lose, only more games. They have a lot of questions to answer in the off-season. In this game, I felt strongly that the spread was too much and that it was a 3pt game at best. I was right. CAR ran the ball well but CAR QB Bryce Young needs to work on a few things plus, he needs a better O-LINE to protect him. He was sacked 4x & threw 1INT. TB did what they needed to do to win but they weren’t lights out as this game could have gone either way late in the 4th qtr. LW, NO @HOME dug themselves a 21-0 hole in the 1st qtr and tried desperately to catch up. The closest NO got was down 24-21 but then DET added a fg, a td and misses 2pt conversion to make the lead 33-21. NO answered with a td but could not get any closer and lost 33-28. NO QB Derek Carr was knocked out of the game with a shoulder and a head injury after a hit by DET DL Bruce Irvin in the 4th qtr. QB Jameis Winston came in and led the drive for NO’s last td. L16 CAR @NO, CAR 7-9 SU but 10-6 ATS . L21 CAR vs NO CAR 10-10-1 ATS. L33 CAR vs NO, NO 18-15 SU & 13-19-1 ATS. CAR 33-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 33-22 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 40-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 11-8 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 10-8 ATS as a DIV DOG >1pt w/revenge. CAR 12-13 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 7-10 ATS before ATL. CAR 3-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 6-17 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 10-16 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. NO 12-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NO 27-44-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 37-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 30-35 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. NO 9-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs <.500 opp. Both teams are coming off a loss. But it doesn’t matter because NO still has something to play for which is a playoff spot from the NFC SOUTH. No team in the division has established themselves as the clear dominant team so NO is still in it. CAR is way out of it and is only playing for jobs. These two teams met in wk 2 @CAR with NO winning 20-17. The score was 20-10 but CAR drove in the last minutes of the game to score a td. The ensuing onside kick was unsuccessful and NO recovered. You can’t lose @HOME to a team that is 1-11 and still have a shot at the playoffs. CAR will come in thinking they can knock NO out. That’s their only motivation at this point. NO has to be thinking that they have to throw everything they can at CAR to destroy them. On paper, NO has a very good team. In reality, guys disappear and then they have to rely on Taysom Hill to get them yardage or a score. Looks like Winston will be in there on SUN vs CAR. NO needs to let their run game take control and then Winston can drop passes in on an already undermanned secondary. CAR #23 RUSH DEF. TB rushed for 128yds vs CAR LW, how many yards will NO get? In the 1st meeting, NO rushed for 134yds, 2tds on 33carries. I see much of the same here. Lay the points here as NO should win by at least a td.
THE PICK: NO-5
Houston Texans (7-5), (6-6) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New York Jets (4-8), (4-7-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS NYJ+6 ½
LW, HOU @HOME won a game by the skin on their teeth vs DEN, 22-17. DEN was driving at the end of the ball game but DEN QB Russell Wilson threw an INT in the endzone that ended the game at 22-17. HOU picked off Wilson 3x. Two of those INTS were by CB Derek Stingley who played them just right. Stingley was the reason HOU won. Unfortunately in the HOU win, WR Tank Dell suffered a fractured tibia and will be out indefinitely. HOU QB CJ Stroud looked good even though he was sacked 5x. NYJ looked awful vs a visiting ATL team. NYJ managed a safety and 2fgs and that was it. QB Tim Boyle started the game but he was replaced by an also ineffective Trevor Simian who fumbled 3straight times losing one of them on a drive almost at the end of the game. The NYJ DEF held ATL to 1td and 2fgs. One of the tds by ATL was scored after NYJ RB Dalvin Cook fumbled the ball at the NYJ 39yd line. This was a game that looked like neither wanted to win. ATL only had 90yards rushing vs a NYJ team that is very bad vs the run. L8 HOU vs NYJ, NYJ 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS. HOU 5-6-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 11-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. HOU 20-28-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 13-18-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 6-15-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 6-13 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. HOU 10-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV <9pts off SU win. HOU 26-16-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600< opp. NYJ 5-8 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 47-41-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 27-41-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 9-8 ATS L17 after scoring <10pts. NYJ 12-12 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. NYJ 10-0 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. HOU is a team that is on the upswing. NYJ look like they have already written off the season and are looking for the exit. The O-LINE for NYJ is awful and gives no protection to whoever the QB dujure is. At this time, the starting QB for NYJ has not been announced but, does it matter? HOU #6 TOT OFF vs NYJ #9 TOT DEF w/#28 RUSH DEF. HOU RBs Devin Singletary & Dameon Pierce are going to run a lot in this game and CJ Stroud is going to sprinkle in passes that keep the NYJ secondary on their toes. This game has blowout written all over it as the only sighting we will see of QB Aaron Rodgers this season is in street clothes. HOU #9 RUSH DEF means that NYJ will not be able to run and whoever is the QB will have to win this game on his own which is highly unlikely. HOU is now playing for a potential playoff spot. They have an easy schedule down the stretch and potentially could end up with twelve victories. This game should be a blowout for HOU unless they get a little overconfident. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-6 ½
Los Angeles Rams (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS LAR+7
LW, LAR @HOME beat CLEV 36-19. LAR had a nice game all around but it was against the 3rd string QB, Joe Flacco. I said he was a statue and I was right. He doesn’t move out of the pocket, he was sacked 2x and he was sacked in the endzone for a game ending safety. This game was a back and forth affair and was LAR 20-19 in the 4th qtr because of a missed PAT by CLEV. CLEV self destructed in the 4t qtr by throwing an INT which LAR turned into a td making the score LAR 27-19. Then CLEV turned the ball over on DOWNS and LAR scored another td making it LAR 34-19. CLEV had to play hurry up in the 4th after LAR scored their td off Flacco’s INT. LAR QB Matthew Stafford had an almost perfect day with 3tds & 0INTS vs a CLEV pass def that was #1. Before their bye, BALT was @LAC on SNF. BALT toyed with LAC rushing for 197yds & 1td on 35 carries. But this game was BALT 13-10 late until BALT scored a td with 1:36 to go to make the final score 20-10. BALT doesn’t win pretty, they just win. But winning by a big margin has never been in BALT’s DNA. BALT does lead the NFL in sacks and they got to LAC QB Justin Herbert 3x. L5 LAR vs BALT, BALT 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. LAR 28-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 30-45 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 14-13 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. LAR 11-2-2 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. LAR 8-4-1 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. BALT 9-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye. BALT 43-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 41-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 17-19-1 ATS L37 vs NFC. BALT 14-4 ATS w/rest vs non-div. BALT 14-15 ATS as a FAV >1pt w/rest. BALT 6-9 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 10-16 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT likes to run the ball over throwing the ball. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs LAR #16 RUSH DEF. If the DEF for LAR can stop the BALT run and make BALT QB Lamar Jackson throw from the pocket then they have a good chance to beat BALT. If the LAR DEF lets BALT run wild, it’s over. BALT DT Justin Madubuike leads the team with 10sacks is right now in concussion protocol and if he doesn’t play in this game, that is a big loss for BALT and a BIG gain for LAR. I see BALT winning by a td but not more. Unless it becomes like a game that BALT played vs DET in wk7 where the LAR DEF doesn’t show up and the BALT OFF can’t be stopped. LAR has to be patient. LAR has something to play for because SEA has slipped from their great start and LAR is actually leading in the playoff hunt because LAR has beaten SEA 2x. LAR has the potential for a wild card berth from the NFC WEST and doesn’t have that bad of a schedule going forward. If LAR wins this game, they could potentially go 10-7 for the season. For BALT, they are trying to stay atop the AFC and get HOME FIELD advantage. This is a BIG game for LAR and they need to show that they can beat good teams. Their record so far is not that impressive. They have beaten SEA(2x), @INDY, ARZ(2x) & CLEV, a lot of so whats.. They have lost to SF, @CINNCY, PHILLY, PITT, @DAL & @GB. Their losses are all to potential playoff teams. All of a sudden they are asked to beat a 9-3 team? I just don’t see it. Based on all this I don’t see LAR stepping up, I see BALT taking charge. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: BALT-7
Sunday December 10th, 2023 4:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (6-6), (8-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (6-0) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-7), (6-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS LV+3
Before their bye on MNF, MINN @HOME lost to CHI 12-10 on a last second fg. This was a sloppy affair by both teams but the trophy goes to MINN for 4INTs by QB Joshua Dobbs. The MINN DEF held CHI to 4fgs but a loss is a loss. Dobbs will certainly make adjustments for this game. MINN WR Justin Jefferson is slated to play in this game. The run game has to be better for MINN so that Dobbs doesn’t feel like he has to win the game by himself. Before their bye, LV lost @HOME to KC, 31-17. KC spotted LV a 14-0 lead before they decided they had had enough. KC scored 21 points before LV got the fg. But, I liked KC-9 in this contest because KC was on a bounceback after their loss on MNF vs PHILLY. LV was just standing in their way and KC needed to get back on track if at least for this week. LV started out nicely in this game but then faded fast after KC made their adjustments. L4 MINN vs LV, MINN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. MINN 23-8 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 7-9 ATS since 2007 after their bye. MINN 8-13 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. MINN 32-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 32-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 10-12 ATS w/rest. MINN 2-6 ATS vs opp off bye week. LV 6-10 ATS since 2007 after their bye. LV 9-10 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. LV 30-42-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 34-56-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 18-18-1 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. LV 6-15 ATS before LAC. LV 7-9 ATS w/rest. LV 8-15-2 ATS L25 @HOME vs NFC. LV 9-3 ATS vs opp w/rest. Both teams should be well rested coming off their byes and both are coming off HOME losses. MINN still has something to play for and that is a potential playoff spot. For LV it is to see who will be on the 2024 team. MINN WR Justin Jefferson was activated for this game which will give the LV secondary something else to worry about. LV #13 PASS DEF. Dobbs has spread the ball around nicely to many receivers but having Jefferson out there gives the MINN OFF another weapon that has to be covered. For MINN To be successful in this game, they need to establish the run game so that they can open up the play action pass and catch the LV secondary off guard. LV DE Maxx Crosby is questionable for this game because of his knee as he did not practice on Wed. However, if he does not play in this game it will be a big hole for LV to cover. I see Dobbs getting back on track after his 4INT setback vs CHI to lead MINN to a nice victory here. Lay the points as MINN should win on the ROAD by 10pts.
THE PICK: MINN-3
Seattle Seahawks (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS SEA+10 ½
LW, SF took it to PHILLY @PHILLY 42-19. SF scored tds on 6straight possessions to blow the doors wide open on who they are and to set the record straight. I liked SF in this game and SF scored every which way. The DEF for SF also played well and didn’t allow any PHILLY comebacks. SF had almost 500yds of OFF and once they got going, it was over. LW on TNF, SEA played their hearts out @DAL. They were actually leading 35-27 in the 4th qtr but couldn’t close the door on DAL. DAL scored 14 more points while giving up 0 pts for a 41-35 win. SEA QB Geno Smith played a good game and was able to shred the DAL DEF but in the 4th qtr SEA had 3straight possessions where they turned the ball over on downs. SEA played without their star RB Kenneth Walker. Right now Walker is questionable for this game @SF. L16 SEA @SF, SEA 9-7 SU & 8-7-1 ATS. L23 SEA vs SF, SEA 14-8-1 ATS. L19 SEA vs SF, FAV 13-6 ATS. SEA 7-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SEA 37-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 36-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 48-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 2-12 ATS as a DD DOG vs .700> opp. SEA 15-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SF 23-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 35-30-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 38-45-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 5-14 ATS before ARZ. SF 7-0 ATS L7 @HOME vs .500> conf opp. These two teams met in wk 12 @SEA with SF winning the game 31-13. In that game, SEA RB Walker did not play and SF was able to hold the SEA OFF to 0tds. The only SEA td was produced on an INT td off of SF QB Brock Purdy. SF built up a 24-3 halftime lead and coasted the rest of the way. SF was a RAOD FAV-6 ½ in that game and I liked SF. SF is on a mission to get the #1 seed in the NFC. Their schedule is not that bad even though they are 1game behind PHILLY. SF has to keep winning to have a shot. They have the team to do it. In the last game between these two teams, SF sacked Geno 6x. SEA only got to Purdy 1x. SF is on four game winning streak with the lowest margin of victory being 13pts @HOME vs TB. SF has only one loss @HOME and that was vs CINNCY w/QB Joe Burrow. SF matches too well vs SEA at this point. The SF DEF has been swarming lately and they are getting better by the game. SF #5 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #14 PASS DEF. They are just too tough for SEA even with Walker @RB. Who is stopping SF RB McCaffrey & WR Samuel? The SF DEF will have 2INTs in this game. Lay the points here as SF rolls.
THE PICK: SF-10 ½
Buffalo Bills (6-6), (4-7-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-3-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS BUFF+2 ½
Before their bye BUFF was @PHILLY and gave PHILLY all they could. Unfortunately, BUFF had a 17-7 halftime lead which they couldn’t hold onto and eventually lost 37-34 in OT. BUFF is desperate and is in a situation where they may be looking at the playoff picture from the outside in. Both teams ran the ball very well in this game and BUFF put up over 500yards of OFF but in the OT, PHILLY found a way to win. The BUFF DEF couldn’t stop HILLY when they needed it most. On SNF, KC was a FAV-6 @GB. I liked GB because GB has possibly turned the corner with their win @DET on Thanksgiving and KC is not playing as well as in seasons past. The DEF has certainly stepped up but the receivers for KC have dropped passes all over the place and cost KC some games. KC QB Pat Mahomes has been playing well but his receivers are sometimes not on the same page. This happened again @GB but also GB was able to run well vs KC and then drop passes in when they needed them most. L13 BUFF vs KC, BUFF 8-5 SU & 9-4 ATS. BUFF 9-6-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. BUFF 43-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 32-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BUFF 12-4 ATS as a DOG >1pt vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 10-16-2 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 4-12-2 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 5-0 ATS as a DOG w/rest vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 7-2-1 ATS w/rest off SU loss. KC 40-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 44-37-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 20-18-1 ATS L39 vs AFC EAST. KC 3-11 ATS after non-conf ROAD gm. KC 20-10 ATS after an SU loss. KC 3-12 ATS off SU FAV loss vs opp w/revenge. This has become a little bit of a rivalry with BUFF usually winning during the season and KC winning in the playoffs. KC is on a bounceback after the loss @GB on SNF. BUFF is coming off the loss in OT @PHILLY before their bye. Both of these teams are not where they want to be. The OFF for KC seems to be stagnated at times with a lot of dropped passes that in past seasons was never an issue. The BUFF DEF has come up short against teams that they normally would have beaten. Also, BUFF has turned the ball over in games when they needed most to hold onto the ball. They have given teams extra opportunities to score points and the DEF for BUFF looked non-existent. This is a BIG game for BUFF because if they lose they will be <.500. If KC loses, there is a possibility that they will be on the road for the playoffs. Up to this point, Mahomes has not played a single playoff AWAY from HOME. He has played all his playoff games @HOME. In this game, KC cannot let Josh Allen take off running like he is accustomed to doing. They have to stop him and make him throw the ball from the pocket. That is where Allen makes most of his mistakes. This is a big game for both teams but even more desperate for BUFF. The KC DEF has to create some turnovers in this game. They do make stops but added opportunities for KC would help in this game. I see KC winning it by about a fg so I like KC laying the points here.
THE PICK: KC-2 ½
Denver Broncos (6-6), (4-8) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-7), (4-7-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS DEN+2 ½
LW, I liked DEN+3 ½ @HOU. Unfortunately, the terrible DEN QB Russell Wilson poked its head out and turned the game into a loser for DEN. DEN had this game but Wilson single-handedly lost the game for DEN. The DEN DEF did its job to hold HOU and stop them from making this game unreachable. I love how Russell Wilson says “We” have to do better. “We” didn’t throw 3INTS in the 4th qtr of last week’s game @HOU. He needs to play better because it was a winnable game for DEN @HOU. Wilson blew it. DEN ended up losing 22-17. LW, LAC was a FAV-6 @NE. If you had watched the game, you would have thought LAC had 0wins this season. It’s amazing that they have any wins at all. LAC HC Brandon Staley is dead man walking and LAC could only manage 2fgs in the bad weather to win @NE, 6-0. LAC gave up 148yds rushing. L16 DEN @ LAC, DEN 8-8 SU & 9-6-1 ATS. L32 DEN vs LAC, DEN 15-15-2 ATS. L26 DEN vs LAC, DEN 14-11-1 ATS. L32 DEN vs LAC, ROAD 18-12-2 ATS. L16 DEN vs LAC, DEN 9-6-1 ATS. L32 LAC vs DEN, DOG 16-14-2 ATS. DEN 14-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DEN 27-36-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 24-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 33-42-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 29-36-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 36-32-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 32-40-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 23-10-1 ATS before LV. LAC 7-1 ATS L8 before TNF. DEN is coming off a game they should have won, period. Wilson knows he needs to do better. The rest of the team did their job. LAC can’t beat anyone good. In fact, they haven’t beaten anyone decent. Right now, DEN is decent and looking for a wild card spot. LAC is going in the opposite direction. They barely beat a team with 2wins. LAC #31 PASS DEF. DEN has to get their OFF going. Wilson hasn’t thrown too many INTS this season and he is usually a good bounceback player so I like DEN in this game. This will be hostile territory but he has been there before. I like DEN to win outright unless Wilson has a continuation of sloppiness from the last game. In DEN’s six wins, Wilson has 11tds & 0INTS. In six losses he has 10tds & 7INTs. The O-LINE for DEN has to stop the D-LINE of LAC. LAC LB Khalil Mack has 15sacks while LB Joey Bosa is on IR.
THE PICK: DEN+2 ½
Sunday December 10th, 2023 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2), (7-4-1) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (6-0) HOME, (5-1) ATS PHILLY+3 ½
LW, PHILLY @HOME was manhandled by SF, 42-19. There was no comeback for PHILLY like in other games and PHILLY will certainly make adjustments going forward. The PHILLY DEF was picked apart by a SF DEF that attacked them from all sides. SF scored tds on six straight possessions. PHILLY had no answer. But good teams move on and learn from losses. LW on TNF, DAL @HOME was a BIG FAV-9 vs SEA. Well SEA didn’t go quietly and this game was a back and forth contest with DAL finally winning 41-35. SEA was leading 35-27 in the 4th qtr but DAL finally put the clamps on and scored 2fgs & 1td to win, 41-35. DAL could have scored a td in their last possession which would have made the lead 10pts but went conservative and kicked a fg instead. But a team like SEA with nothing to lose gave DAL a run for their money. Up to this point, DAL has had relative ease @HOME this season vs bad teams. SEA was able to put up 5tds and the DAL DEF sacked SEA QB Geno Smith 0x. L16 PHILLY @DAL, PHILLY 7-9 SU & 7-9 ATS. L33 PHILLY vs DAL, DOG 15-18 ATS. L23 PHILLY vs DAL, ROAD 10-13 ATS. L15 PHILLY vs DAL, DAL 9-6 SU & 9-6 ATS. PHILLY 10-12 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PHILLY 10-8 ATS on SNF off an SU loss. PHILLY 7-13 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 33-23 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 40-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 28-41 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 5-11 ATS before MNF. PHILLY 3-10 ATS as a conf DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. PHILLY 13-3 ATS as a DOG after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. PHILLY 0-7 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. PHILLY 0-8 ATS as a DIV DOG vs opp w/rest. PHILLY 11-20 ATS vs .666> conf opp. DAL 13-12 ATS on SNF vs opp off an SU loss. DAL 18-17-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 32-47-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 33-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 31-37-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 8-1 ATS w/rest & revenge. DAL 9-20 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 1-6 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. DAL 23-10 ATS as a DIV FAV >2pts. DAL 3-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs .666>conf opp. DAL 1-11-1 ATS as a FAV <5pts vs .666>conf opp. DAL 7-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts w/rev. DAL 3-9 ATS L12 after scoring 35>pts. 0-10 ATS L10 as a conf HOME FAV <4pts vs .666>opp. This is a big bounceback game for PHILLY after being shredded and demolished by SF last week. PHILLY has added LB Shaquille Leonard who was waived earlier this season by INDY. Leonard was injured last season and trying to make his way back this season. He adds needed depth to PHILLY. This is also a revenge game for DAL after these two teams met @PHILLY in wk 9 with PHILLY winning 28-23. In that game, DAL had the game but DAL QB Dak Prescott made a couple of mistakes that would lose the game for DAL. For one, Prescott stepped out of bounds on a 2pt conversion which would have made it PHILLY 28-25 instead of 28-23, big difference. PHILLY #29 PASS DEF. No, that is not a misprint. PHILLY has a great #4 RUSH DEF but, they can be beat in the air as SF showed last week. But DAL is a different animal. At stake here is the #1 seed in the NFC. DAL has a talented team but they have not beaten any really good teams like PHILLY or SF. The win last week was vs a fading SEA team and DAL had a hard time finding themselves until the 4th qtr. This is the first really good team that DAL is facing @HOME. PHILLY has to spread the OFF out even more so that DAL doesn’t know what’s coming. On DEF, different looks are also in order. I like PHILLY here in a bounceback and the points.
THE PICK: PHILLY+3 ½
Monday December 11th, 2023 8:15pm
Tennessee Titans (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (9-3), (8-4) ATS, (5-0) HOME (4-1) ATS TENN+13 ½
TENN is doing everything wrong to lose games. TENN @HOME should have beaten INDY but they made BIG mistakes on special teams that opened the door for INDY to pull a 31-28 OT win. Then, the secondary for TENN couldn’t cover a flea and made INDY QB Gardner Minshew look like Tom Brady. TENN deserved to lose. I liked TENN+1 @HOME for this game because I felt that the OFF would get going against a sometimes lax INDY DEF. It did but the special teams for TENN lost the game BIG TIME. LW, MIA @WASH wasn’t even a game. It was more of a practice for MIA with their high powered OFF. MIA was up 31-7 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. MIA totaled over 400yds of OFF and won 45-15 while stymieing a WASH that was playing from behind 7-0, after the 1st time MIA touched the ball. MIA needs wins because they are playing for the #1 seed in the AFC. L11 TENN vs MIA, TENN 5-6 SU & 5-6 ATS. TENN 8-2 ATS on MNF 1NL. TENN 5-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. TENN 27-34-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 28-32-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 12-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. TENN 10-1 ATS as a DOG vs opp off BB SUATS wins. TENN 10-4 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 13-5 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. MIA 4-8 ATS L12 on MNF. MIA 13-14 ATS L27 as a HOME FAV on MNF. MIA 10-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MIA 34-45 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 27-55 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 11-8-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 8-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts. MIA 7-0 ATS as a HOME FAV off DD Su win. MIA 9-1 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500 opp. This season has definitely gotten away BIG TIME from TENN. They have a lot of questions that need to be addressed in the off-season if they are to move forward. TENN RB Derrick Henry is in concussion protocol and most probably will not be available for this game. It doesn’t matter because TENN is not winning this game. Even though they are very good at stopping teams in the redzone, this is not INDY. TENN #2 RED ZONE DEF scoring tds. MIA #1 TOT OFF vs TENN #17 TOT DEF. MIA just put up 45pts on the road @WASH. How many points will they put up vs TENN? TENN gave up 31 pts vs INDY with QB Gardner Minshew. Minshew threw some passes that were in the perfect spot and TENN defenders were either totally out of position or didn’t know it was coming. What will happen when Tua throws his passes? Who is covering WRs Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle? Plus, with the mix of RBs that MIA has, it will be a long night for TENN. I honestly believe that MIA could score 60points in this game. Lay the BIG points here as MIA rolls on unless they get sloppy.
THE PICK: MIA-13 ½
Green Bay Packers (6-6), (5-7) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ New York Giants (4-8), (4-7-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS NYG+6 ½
NYG are coming off a bye and before that @HOME, they beat NE 10-7, a big so what. NYG were actually a DOG in that contest but, I liked them here because NE is a mess and at least NYG could get their run game going. NYG didn’t get their run game going and instead they gave up 147yds rushing to NE. It’s only because NE doesn’t have a reliable QB that NYG won the game. LW, I liked GB+6 @HOME vs KC on SNF. GB looked very good the week before @DET and I felt strongly that GB would give KC trouble. GB QB Jordan Love has looked better and he is playing better against better competition. He also has a nice run game behind him that complements the OFF. This takes a load of pressure off a QB and Love showed it vs KC. He spread the ball around to nine different receivers and KC was caught at times confused in their coverage. Plus, Love had 0turnovers and was only sacked 2x in the 27-19 GB win. L9 GB vs NYG, GB 5-4 SU but 3-5-1 ATS. GB 5-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. GB 14-23-1 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. GB 37-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 62-36-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 6-9 ATS as a ROAD FAV 6>pts. GB 9-10 ATS off an SU DOG win. GB 13-11-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 17-2-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. NYG 5-8 ATS as a DOG on MNF. NYG 4-11 ATS as a non-div DOG on MNF. NYG 2-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYG 17-23-1 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-9 ATS since 2007 after their bye. NYG 47-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 36-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 1-10 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 0-9 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. NYG 6-20 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 6-0 ATS w/rest vs .700<opp off SU win. NYG 2-10 ATS vs .500>opp w/revenge. NYG 5-1 ATS L6 w/rest vs <.666 opp. These two teams met last season in London for wk 5 and NYG surprised GB 27-22. GB built up a 17-3 lead only to watch NYG come back, tie it at 20-20 and then get a go ahead td in the 4th qtr to win 27-22. GB was a BIG FAV, GB-9. In the NYG comeback, NYG used different OFF schemes to keep the GB DEF guessing. But this time around the O-LINE for NYG is terrible and GB actually has something to play for after turning their season around. GB is coming off two impressive wins, @DET & HOME vs KC. But, they cannot look at NYG at pushovers because GB is not there yet. They are still proving it to the rest of the league that maybe they are turning the corner. Love has looked good and with RB Aaron Jones coming back into the mix, this gives GB multiple RB weapons that will make the DEF tired. NYG have looked awful this season and probably can’t wait for their off-season. NYG QB Tommy DeVito has been sacked 28x in five games. How many times will he be sacked in this game? If Love spreads the ball around and is patient as he was vs KC, this will be a blowout. I like GB laying the points here as GB should win easily.
THE PICK: GB-6