2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 18
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 18 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
NOTE: Due to a lot of teams resting starters in preparation for the playoffs, picks are based on public information pertaining to those players that are not playing. Teams may very well rest other players that are not stated publicly thereby altering that team’s play this weekend. Please keep this in mind.
Saturday January 6th, 2024 4:30pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), (10-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3), (11-5) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (5-3) ATS BALT+4
LW, BALT @HOME took care of MIA like I said they would. Psychological factors played a big part of BALT destroying MIA, 56-19. If you read my analysis, you knew it was money in the bank. BALT was dominant and now they are the #1 seed in the AFC. LW, I liked PITT+3 ½ @SEA because I thought the spread was too big and I thought the run game for PITT would give SEA problems. It did, as PITT rushed for 202 yds & 3tds on 46carries. SEA QB Geno Smith spread the ball around to 8different receivers but mistakes by SEA in the 2nd half stopped them catching PITT. The final score was PITT 30-23. L16 PITT @BALT, PITT 8-8 SU & 9-6 ATS 1NL. L33 PITT vs BALT, PITT 16-14-2 ATS 1NL. L25 PITT vs BALT, PITT 12-11-1 ATS 1NL. L33 PITT vs BALT, DOG 21-8-2 ATS 1PICK’EM, 1NL. L31 PITT vs BALT, ROAD 19-10-2 ATS. PITT 11-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PITT 16-19 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 3-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. PITT 5-0 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. PITT 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PITT 18-19-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. BALT 6-3-1 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. BALT 10-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. BALT 1-3 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. BALT 1-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. BALT 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. BALT 13-5 ATS as a div DOG. BALT 6-2 ATS as a div DOG >3pts. 2-17 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. BALT 15-30-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 10-16 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 2-11 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins vs .500> opp. BALT QB Lamar Jackson is resting and Tyler Huntley will be starting in his place. Huntley has always played hard and won games in Jackson’s absence. As of right now, BALT has not said what other players may sit but PITT has a shot at a playoff spot and is starting Mason Rudolph @QB. When ever these two teams get together it is always a battle and BALT would like nothing more than knocking PITT out of the playoffs. BALT could see PITT in the playoffs if PITT wins here. PITT still has to contend with a DEF that doesn’t give up much only in garbage time. BALT #4 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #6 PASS DEF. The last team that went toe-to-toe with was LAR and before that CLEV but, other than that, the BALT DEF has been dominating. These two teams met in wk 5 @PITT with PITT winning 17-10. In that game, PITT QB Kenny Pickett outplayed BALT QB Lamar Jackson. BALT committed 3turovers which were turned into 12pts by PITT. A revenge factor may be on the minds of BALT and knocking them out of the playoffs is also an incentive. PITT Is motivated to get to the playoffs so this is a game that may go down to the wire. PITT may try to run the stuffing out of the ball to protect Rudolph but, the D-LINE for BALT is much better than SEA’s D-LINE. A lot of BALT-PITT games have been decided by 3pts and I see this game following that same pattern. I like BALT here with the pts because PITT QB Mason Rudolph’s luck may just run out.
THE PICK: BALT+4
Saturday January 6th, 2024 8:15pm
Houston Texans (9-7), (8-8) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (9-7), (9-6-1) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-3-1) ATS HOU+1
LW, HOU @HOME took care of TENN, 26-3. The HOU DEF sacked TENN QBs 6x while not allowing any tds. HOU also held TENN to 53yds rushing. HOU QB CJ Stroud spread the ball around to 10different receivers and the OFF rushed for 111yds on 28carries. This game was 20-3 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. LW, INDY held on for dear life @HOME vs LV. The INDY DEF couldn’t stop the LV passing game and this game went down to the wire. LV drove down the field and scored a td with :43 left and INDY needed to recover an onside kick to walk away with a 23-20 win. L16 HOU @INDY, HOU 4-12 SU & 6-9-1 ATS. L27 HOU vs INDY, HOME 12-13-2 ATS. L29 HOU vs INDY, FAV 14-12-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. L27 HOU vs INDY, HOU 8-17-2 ATS. L10 HOU vs INDY, HOU 27-1 SU & 2-7-1 ATS. L29 HOU vs INDY, INDY 18-9-2 ATS. HOU 3-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. HOU 3-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. HOU 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. HOU 3-7-2 ATS AWAY off SU div win. HOU 1-9-1 ATS AWAY off SU div win vs >.500 opp. INDY 9-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 0-3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. INDY 0-2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. INDY 0-2-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. INDY 26-17-1 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. These two teams played each other in wk 2 @HOU with INDY winning the game 31-20. In that game, INDY QB Gardner Minshew came in a for an injured Anthony Richardson and led the team to a nice victory. HOU QB CJ Stroud was getting accustomed to the NFL game but was sacked 6x. The run game for INDY was the star rushing for 126yds & 3tds on 23 carries. But it was INDY QB Anthony Richardson who rushed 3x for 35yds & 2tds. HOU should be accustomed to Minshew’s game as he has played the bulk of the season after Richardson suffered a season ending injury. HOU should have revenge on their minds as they have played a lot better down the stretch with some hiccups along the way. INDY has also played well later than earlier in the season as their DEF was getting blasted by high powered OFFs. Now that HOU QB CJ Stroud has found a great rhythm, the INDY DEF will certainly have their hands full. HOU needs to score early and often and put INDY in a catchup mode. For INDY, they need to put a clamp on the HOU DEF and move the ball down the field and use a lot of clock. INDY #13 RUSH OFF vs HOU #3 RUSH DEF. INDY will try to use their run game but HOU has to shut it down and put it all on Minshew’s shoulders. HOU has a lot of guys banged up but, this game will come down to a fg at the end and I like HOU here. Both of these teams have something to play for because of the 2nd half collapse by the JAGS.
THE PICK: HOU+1
Sunday January 7th, 2024 1:00pm
Cleveland Browns (11-5), (8-7-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), (7-9) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (4-4) ATS CLEV+5
LW, CLEV had some self inflicted wounds vs NYJ on TNF. But the CLEV DEF was able to hold NYJ when they needed to and won 37-20. The CLEV OFF had their way with NYJ as NYJ played catchup in this game to no avail. With Flacco in the lineup who is a playoff tested veteran, CLEV should go deep into the playoffs. LW, CINNCY had their chances @KC. The CINNCY DEF held KC to 1td and 6fgs. But a couple of suspect calls on OFF held back CINNCY from winning this game. Plus, CINNCY QB Jake Browning getting sacked 6x didn’t help either. The CINNCY DEF did their job but the OFF was a disappointment. CINNCY was winning 17-13 at the half but managed 0pts in the 2nd half and lost 25-17. I had like CINNCY +7 ½ and thought I had a great shot at winning this one but CINNCY couldn’t get it done down the stretch. This was a game that CINNCY should have won and stayed in the playoff picture. L16 CLEV @ CINNCY, CLEV 5-11 SU & 6-8-2 ATS. L24 CLEV vs CINNCY, CLEV 8-12-4 ATS. L33 CLEV vs CINNCY, DOG 19-10-4 ATS. L20 CLEV vs CINNCY, CLEV 5-12-3 ATS. CLEV 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. CLEV 0-4 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CLEV 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CLEV 2-8 ATS after TNF. CLEV 3-11 ATS as a DOG after DD SU win. CLEV 8-22 ATS off DD Su win. CLEV 2-7 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEV 1-12-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-14-1 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 4-18 ATS off SUATS win vs .500> opp. CLEV 1-9 ATS off SUATS win vs opp w/revenge. CINNCY 2-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CINNCY 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CINNCY 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. CINNCY 20-20-2 ATS after an SU loss & @HOME. CINNCY 7-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. CINNCY 3-5 ATS vs div opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 3-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off DD SU win. 8-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses. With the 5th seed secure, CLEV is resting QB Joe Flacco and others. Jeff Driskel who was recently signed will get the start for CLEV @QB. CINNCY is out of the playoffs but QB Jake Browning still has a lot of teams that may have interest in him for next season. We all know that Joe Burrow will be the starter @QB for CINNCY but Browning has shown that he can be a starter too. Joe Flacco has done a fine job filling in for the injured QBs in CLEV. Although, he has thrown 8INTs in five games. That may be a problem in the playoffs as you play against better teams. For CINNCY, they need to tweak a few things and get their team ready for a new season. A better run game would help Joe Burrow in the long run. With the starters resting and with CLEV having nothing to play for as they are locked into a position, I like CINNCY laying the points. Hence, if CLEV had something to play for the LINE would be quite different.
THE PICK: CINNCY-5
Minnesota Vikings (7-9), (9-6-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (7-0-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (11-5), (11-5) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS MINN+3
LW, DET was robbed @DAL. DET outplayed DAL and should have won the game 21-20 instead of losing 20-19. If you didn’t see the game, you missed another blunder by the NFL officials. The DET DEF stepped up big time against everyone on DAL except everyone named Ceedee Lamb. But even with WR Lamb having a career day, DET did their job and limited DAL to 2tds & 2fgs. LW, MINN @HOME vs GB started Jalen Hall as their QB and the OFF was stymied. The run game went nowhere and Hall was sacked 3x while throwing 1INT. MINN was down 23-3 at the half and the game was essentially over. QB Nick Mullens came in and tried to get the OFF going but it was the special teams that delivered a recovered fumble which led to MINN only td of the game. MINN lost 33-10. L16 MINN @DET, MINN 8-8 SU & 8-7-1 ATS. L28 MINN vs DET, MINN 14-13-2 ATS. L19 MINN vs DET, ROAD 11-7-1 ATS. L33 MINN vs DET, DET 15-15-3 ATS. L33 MINN vs DET, HOME 14-16-3 ATS. L33 MINN vs DET, DOG 13-17-3 ATS. MINN 2-3 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. MINN 1-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. MINN 0-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MINN 7-3 ATS AWAY after BB SU losses. MINN 10-2 ATS as a RD 3>pts off BB SU losses. MINN 14-7 ATS after GB. MINN 8-2 ATS w/conference revenge vs opp off SU loss. MINN 11-3-1 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. MINN 4-12 ATS vs .666> conf opp. MINN 2-9 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss vs div opp. MINN 3-9 ATS off DD ATS loss vs div opp. MINN 6-1 ATS AWAY w/conference revenge vs opp off SU loss. DET 3-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. DET 4-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. DET 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DET 10-3 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 8-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs >.400 opp. DET 13-2 ATS @HOME vs opp off DD SU loss. DET 0-4 ATS L4 vs div opp off SU HOME FAV loss. DET 3-5 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. MINN has a shot at a playoff spot. DET is locked in with the NFC NORTH division crown. However, after last week, as a team you would think that DET would be steamed and would take it all out on their next opponent? DET needs to knock out MINN because DET may seem them in the playoffs down the road. DET RBs Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery both have an incentive for this game. They both want to be of a backfield that each has 1,000 yds rushing. Montgomery has 975yds rushing while Gibbs has 915yds rushing. That means that DET needs to run the ball a lot to get over 100yds to get each one to 1,000. That takes a lot of pressure off of whoever is the QB for DET. If DET rests QB Jared Goff, the backup is Teddy Bridgewater who has stated that this will be his last season. What better way to leave the game with a win, knocking out a division rival and beating the team that you were originally drafted by. Nick Mullens will start @QB for MINN. He came in the 2nd half @HOME last week vs GB. But by that time it was GB 23-3 and he was in major catchup mode. The only td drive that he led was after a muffed punt by GB that put the ball on GB’s 7yd line. Besides that he was inefficient. Mullens is a guy who can throw the ball around but he doesn’t read defenses well and he has a lot of turnovers. The OFF for MINN has not been consistent this season and it may have to do with so many QBs at the helm. Mullens is very familiar with the OFF but considering that DET is very good vs the run, DET #5 RUSH DEF, it will be all on his shoulders to win this game. The DET secondary should be waiting. These two teams met @MINN in wk16 and MINN had a total of 17yds rushing. Mullens was forced to throw the ball more than he is accustomed and he had 4INTS. MINN was still in the game at the end but, a wobbler thrown by Mullens was intercepted at the goal line to end the game 30-24 in DET’s favor. I like DET here because DET knows Mullens and Bridgewater would like to go out with a nice win. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DET-3
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7), (9-7) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-11), (6-10) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS TENN+3 ½
LW, JAGS @HOME even without QB Trevor Lawrence took care of CAR, 26-0. I liked CAR+7 only to keep it close or steal this game but JAGS would have none of that. JAGS QB CJ Beathard did not turn the ball over and JAGS went heavy on the run with 155yds & 2tds on 35carries. CAR had no answers and CAR QB Bryce Young was sacked 6x and had 1INT. JAGS DEF played superbly and did not let CAR get into the endzone. LW, TENN was @HOU and really didn’t show up in a 26-3 loss. TENN QBs were sacked 6x and had 1lost fumble while the DEF for TENN was non-existent. This game was HOU 20-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. TENN only managed 53yds rushing in the loss. L16 JAGS @TENN, JAGS 4-12 SU & 7-9 ATS. L29 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 15-14 ATS. L33 JAGS vs TENN, DOGS 16-17 ATS. L17 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 6-11 SU & 6-11 ATS. JAGS 8-5 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. JAGS 2-1-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. JAGS 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. JAGS 1-1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. JAGS 3-14 ATS off DD SU win vs .400< opp. JAGS 9-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 4-5 ATS AWAY after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 7-2 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. TENN 17-12 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. TENN 1-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. TENN 0-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. TENN 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TENN 8-3-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs .333> opp. TENN 2-7 ATS after HOU. JAGS are in this spot needing a victory to get into the playoffs because they had a 4game meltdown. They were 8-3 before losing four games that three of them could have been won. They beat up on CAR last week even without QB Trevor Lawrence. For TENN, their season has been over since NOV when they were 3-7 and they were officially out of any running for the playoffs. This team has a lot of holes that need to be fixed in the off-season. TENN QB Mike Vrabel is a good coach but I don’t think he was given the players that TENN needed to be successful. TENN QBs have been sacked 62x and RB Derrick Henry is having an OFF season. TENN #27 TOT OFF w/#18 RUSH OFF & #28 PASS OFF. This has a lot to do with an O-LINE that underachieved and not too many targets to throw to except WR Andre Hopkins. TENN can do better. TENN QB Will Levis needs a full training camp to be evaluated. These two teams met in wk 11 @JAGS with JAGS winning a whopper, 34-14. With JAGS needing this victory to get into the playoffs and TENN officially checked out in DEC, I see JAGS getting the needed victory here to get into the playoffs. Also, QB Lawrence should be back for JAGS and WR Christian Kirk is set to practice this week after his return from injury. Lay the points here as JAGS roll.
THE PICK: JAGS-3 ½
New York Jets (6-10), (5-10-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (1-5-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (4-12), (5-10-1) ATS, (1-7) HOME, (1-6-1) ATS NYJ+2
LW, NYJ were manhandled @CLEV on TNF. CLEV QB Joe Flacco gave NYJ an in by throwing an ill advised pass that ended up being a PICK6. But other than that CLEV was in control of this game. CLEV had almost 430yds of total offense and NYJ DEF did little about it. CLEV made other mistakes but NYJ couldn’t capitalize on them. This game was CLEV 34-17 at the half and both teams traded fgs in the 2nd half for a 37-20 CLEV win. NYJ played catchup n this game to no avail. LW, I liked NE+12 @BUFF. NE actually had a good shot at beating BUFFF but, NE had self inflicted wounds which curtailed their chances. NE QB Bailey Zappe had 3INTs, all of which were turned into 17pts by BUFF. Plus, NE had a fumble that was turned into a fg as well. So 20pts off turnovers for BUFF and NE lost 27-21. If this team decides on Zappe going forward, he would get better with a whole training camp as the #1 QB. He has had his moments but he has had his bad moments as well. However, even with all the turnovers, NE kept it close as the NE DEF did the best they could with the added opportunities afforded to BUFF. L16 NYJ @ NE, NYJ 1-15 SU & 7-9 ATS. L23 NYJ vs NE, NYJ 11-12 ATS. L26 NYJ vs NE, ROAD 13-13 ATS. NYJ 9-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYJ 0-4 ATS AWAY in JAN. MYJ 0-3 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NYJ 1-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYJ 2-11 ATS after TNF. NYJ 11-17 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. NYJ 9-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NE 1-3 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. NE 2-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NE 9-6 ATS after BUFF. NE 4-6 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs opp w/revenge. This could be the last game that NE HC Bill Belichick coaches for NE. They played tough last week @BUFF even though BUFF is on a roll and BUFF was revenging the earlier loss @NE. But I knew that NE plays tough no matter who they play. The DEF for NE will be even better in 2024 because of the players who will come back from injury. QB is a big question mark and if they get a decent QB, NE will be back in the fold. Also, NE needs better receivers who can get open and hold onto the ball. As for NYJ, they think that QB Aaron Rodgers will lead this team to the promise land. Well, the O-LINE is terrible and there are guys on OFF that disappear as well. The DEF is touted as being great but their DEF is a liability at times. NYJ #5 TOT DEF w/#24 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. By not being able to stop the run, they become susceptible to the pass. As much as NYJ are peeved about not beating NE in a long time, Belichick takes special pride in beating the NYJ. This game has no ramifications on the playoff picture just where each team will stand come draft time. However, I like NE to win by at least a fg because somehow, someway NYJ finds a way to lose to NE.
THE PICK: NE-2
Atlanta Falcons (7-9), (7-9) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (8-8), (6-9-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (2-5) ATS ATL+3
LW, ATL was a dud @CHI. ATL couldn’t stop CHI QB Justin Fields either in the air or by the ground. He was a one man wrecking crew. On OFF, ATL threw 4INTS which resulted in 10pts for CHI. ATL played catchup in this game to no avail and the DEF couldn’t make a stop when they needed it. ATL was never in this one and lost 37-17. LW, NO was @TB and looked like they were for real. NO used their ground game and passing game to beat TB 23-13. TB looked nervous against a NO DEF that sometimes disappears. But this week the NO DEF played superbly and held TB to 57yds rushing and created 4turnovers. Where was this DEF all season? NO RBs Jamaal Williams & Alvin Kamara combined for 103yds on 29 carries which kept the TB DEF guessing. L16 ATL @NO, ATL 6-10 SU & 8-8 ATS. L25 ATL vs NO, HOME 13-12 ATS. L26 NO vs ATL, NO 15-11 ATS. L21 NO vs ATL, DOG 13-8 ATS. ATL 10-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ATL 1-2 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. ATL 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. ATL 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. ATL 1-7 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. ATL 0-5 ATS L5 off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. NO 3-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. NO 3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. NO 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. NO 11-8 ATS after TB. NO 14-8 ATS L22 off SU DOG win. NO 9-12 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 4-9 ATS off SU DOG win vs div opp. NO 10-1 ATS w/revenge off SU DOG win. NO 2-4 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs opp off DD SU loss. NO 10-26 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. Believe it or not, NO still has something to play for and so does ATL. Because of the loss by TB last week, a win here by either team could put them in the playoffs. But, they would need TB to lose their game @CAR. Anyway, with NO this season, you didn’t know which NO team was going to show up from week to week. There is no consistency with NO. On paper they have a solid team but it didn’t always translate to gameday. Also, NO QB Derek Carr was bounced around a lot this season and his play was also inconsistent. ATL has been struggling to find themselves all season. ATL lost a lot of close games this season and have yet to find any consistency with QB Desmond Ridder. The run game has been good for ATL but Ridder needs to get better. As for the ATL DEF, ATL #11 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & #8 PASS DEF, they have been inconsistent and need to play better as well. ATL needed to play as good or better on the road as they did at home. ATL 2-6 AWAY, 5-3 @HOME. These two teams played @ATL in wk 12 with ATL winning 24-15. In that game, ATL rushed for 228yds & 1td on 41 carries. Also, Carr had a PICK6 and there was sloppy play on both sides. They should be some revenge on the minds of NO and they have something to play for. I like NO here because ATL doesn’t play well on the road and NO has nothing to lose. Lay the points here as NO should win by a td in a hard fought game.
THE PICK: NO-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8), (9-7) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (6-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (2-14), (5-10-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-3-1) ATS CAR+4 ½
LW, TB was @HOME vs NO. TB could have solidified a playoff spot coming out of the NFC SOUTH. Instead they threw a dud and lost to NO 23-13. TB QB Baker Mayfield threw 2INTS and TB also had 2lost fumbles which all led to missed opportunities for TB. TB was never in this game as they dug themselves a 17-0 hole and could never catchup. The DEF for TB didn’t show up as NO QB Derek Carr spread the ball around to 10different receivers and NO did not turn the ball over. LW, CAR was +7 @JAGS. I felt CAR would at least keep it close knowing that QB Trevor Lawrence was not playing for the JAGS. But JAGS bounced back after a four game skid and beat up on CAR, 26-0. Offensively, CAR had a terrible day not being able to run the ball or get too many passes down the field to do any sort of damage vs JAGS. CAR punted 6x, turned the ball over on downs 3x and then finally threw an INT to end the game. The CAR DEF didn’t make any stops of the JAGS OFF as they seemed to have their will moving down the field. L16 TB @CAR, TB 7-9 SU & 9-7 ATS. L33 TB vs CAR, FAV 19-14 ATS. L22 TB vs CAR, ROAD 14-8 ATS. L13 TB vs CAR, TB 8-5 ATS. TB 11-16 ATS L27 as a ROAD FAV. TB 3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. TB 3-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. TB 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN . TB 8-10 ATS after NO. TB 8-10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 7-1 ATS off SU conf HOME FAV loss. CAR 14-14-2 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. CAR 1-4 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CAR 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. CAR 1-4 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. CAR 17-10-1 @HOME of SUATS loss. CAR 12-9 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 11-9 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. If TB wins this game, they will be in the playoffs no matter what anyone else does in the NFC SOUTH. If they lose to CAR, TB will not be in the playoffs. TB has a big incentive to play well and win here. These two teams played in wk13 @TB with TB barely winning 21-18. The spread was CAR +5 ½ and I liked CAR because I felt they would give TB a tough time and keep it close to a fg. CAR did and believe it or not this game came down to the end. For CAR, the season has been a complete disaster. The only bright spot for CAR was their PASS DEF. CAR #3 PASS DEF. This forced teams to use their run against CAR which CAR was tough to defend. CAR #23 RUSH DEF. Knowing that TB has something big to play for and CAR looks like they have checked out, I like TB laying the points here. TB QB Baker Mayfield has taken a team that no one thought would contend and have them on the verge of the playoffs. If he wants to get a nice deal with TB, winning this game and getting TB into the playoffs would help. Mayfield needs to have a good game here when the pressure is on. Lay the points here as Mayfield delivers and TB wins by at least a td.
THE PICK: TB-4 ½
Sunday January 7th, 2024 4:00pm
Chicago Bears (7-9), (9-6-1) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (4-3-1) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (8-8), (6-10) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS CHI+3
LW, CHI @HOME never let ATL get going. The DEF for CHI forced ATL QBs into 4INTS which led to 10pts for CHI. Tack in the missed fgs by ATL early and this game was headed in CHI’s favor. CHI rushed for 192yds & 3tds on 37carries which included Justin Fields 45yds & 1td on 11carries. He also passed for 268yds on 20/32 & 1td. CHI did not turn the ball over and ATL played catchup all day in a 37-17 CHI win. LW, GB went into MINN on SNF and took care of business. MINN started rookie QB Jaren Hall and the GB DEF took advantage of his inexperience. GB sacked Hall 3x, intercepted him 1x and forced him into a fumble. Meanwhile the MINN DEF couldn’t stop GB and the score was GB 23-3 at the half. QB Nick Mullens came in for Hall after the half but it was too little too late as MINN scored 1td on a botched punt return by GB that ended up deep in GB territory at the 7yard line. MINN punched it in but GB won 33-10. GB QB Jordan Love threw 3tds and wasn’t even sacked. GB rushed for 177yds on 39carries, led by RB Aaron Jones who rushed for 120yds on 20 carries. L16 CHI @GB, CHI 3-13 SU & 5-11 ATS. L25 CHI vs GB, CHI 5-20 ATS. L26 CHI vs GB, ROAD 15-11 ATS. CHI 0-4 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. CHI 0-4 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CHI 0-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. CHI 9-3 ATS vs .500>div opp off DD SU win. CHI 7-11 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. CHI 5-7-1 ATS as a div ROAD DOG <6pts. GB 3-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 3-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 9-11 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 32-14-1 ATS after div gm. GB 23-10 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 12-2 ATS off SU div win vs opp off SU win. GB 8-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CHI has been eliminated from the playoffs. Even though they have won 4 out of their last 5games, it was too little, too late. CHI started out the season 0-4 and played cathcup the rest of the way. However, they do have a shot at knocking out GB from getting to the playoffs. CHI QB Justin Fields has been playing a lot better in the 2nd half of the season. CHI has a big decision to make whether or not to keep him or get another QB. The DEF for CHI has certainly done their part by keeping them in games. CHI #12 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #21 PASS DEF. These two teams met in wk 1 in CHI with GB blowing out CHI 38-20. Now CHI can return the favor by knocking GB out of the playoffs. GB needs a win to get into the playoffs but the way CHI has been playing lately, that will be no easy task. GB QB Jordan Love has been inconsistent. Just when you think GB is going to win, they lose. They barely beat CAR on the road but, the win @MINN last week was very good. Last year at this time GB needed a win to get in the playoffs and they lost @HOME to DET. The way CHI has been playing lately and the fact that they can knock GB out of the playoffs is an incentive for them to go out with a win. GB will try to get their run game going but it will be tough. I like this game going down to the wire with CHI getting the win or losing by less than the spread. Take CHI & the points here.
THE PICK: CHI+3
Denver Broncos (8-8), (6-10) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-9), (8-6-2) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (5-2-1) ATS DEN+2 ½
Don’t kid yourself, last week, DEN @HOME was lucky to beat LAC, 16-9. DEN was playing against a backup backup QB, in Easton Stick and an interim HC. Plus, LAC LB Joey Bosa was out. DEN managed 1td vs a team that will be making a few changes in the off-season. DEN only won this game because of LAC self-inflicted wounds. Otherwise LAC would have won this game. LW, LV had their chances @INDY but INDY was determined to win on a bounceback. I like INDY-3 but LV certainly made it interesting and didn’t give up. LV had scored points on three out of their four possessions in the 2nd half. But, had they played this urgently in the 1st half, they would have run away with the game and the win @INDY. All they managed was a fg & 4punts which left them with a14-3 deficit at halftime. LV put the pressure on in the 2nd half but came up short in a 23-20 loss. L16 DEN @LV, DEN 7-9 SU & 7-9 ATS. L24 DEN vs LV, DEN 12-12 SU & 11-13 ATS. L33 DEN vs LV, ROAD 18-15 ATS. L25 DEN vs LV, LV 14-11 ATS. DEN 4-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DEN 4-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. DEN 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. DEN 18-16-1 ATS L35 ROAD div gms. DEN 6-10 ATS after LAC. DEN 1-10 ATS off SUATS div HOME win. DEN 6-7 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs conf opp. LV 1-2 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LV 0-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. LV 2-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. LV 2-10 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs opp w/revenge. LV 6-0 ATS vs >.333 div opp w/revenge. LV 2-11 ATS as a FAV off SU loss vs <.500 opp. Neither team is playing for anything but a win. DEN QB Russell Wilson is not playing. Last week DEN beat LAC, so what. DEN has been a mess since they won the SuperBowl in 2015. The DEN DEF that kept this team in many games earlier in the season has slipped. DEN #30 TOT DEF w/#31 RUSH DEF DEN #22 PASS DEF. Also, Jarrett Stidham is getting his 2nd start in a row as he could be auditioning for a position with DEN or somewhere else. He played respectable last week vs LAC but the LAC DEF is weak without DE Joey Bosa in the lineup. LV has played better @HOME than on the road. LV needs to get their run game going in this one so that Aidan O’Connell doesn’t feel too much pressure. He is still auditioning for the QB position as LV always goes through some adjustments(to put it lightly) in the off-season. LV had their chances @INDY last week but I didn’t think they would compete vs an INDY team that was beaten badly the week before. LV WRs Davante Adams & Jakobi Myers have been the go-to-guys on this team but who knows if either will be on LV next season. LV RB Josh Jacobs who was looking for a long term contract is questionable for this game. RB Zamir White is capable of picking up the run game as he rushed for 145yds vs KC two weeks ago. LV should run all over DEN until the DEN DEF falls down. DEN in turn will also try to run the ball to give Stidham some help but, LV is just a little better vs the run then DEN. LV #22 RUSH DEF. Then, O’Connell could just drop passes all over the place and put a beat down on DEN. O’Connell has played decently in most of the games he started this season after coming in for Jimmy G but, is he the long term solution? Will a full training camp as the #1 QB tone up his skills? These two teams met in wk 1 @DEN with LV winning a close one, 17-16. It might as well have been last season because both of these teams were dramatically different at that time. But I like LV here to win big because they are @HOME and have won here convincingly. Lay the points.
THE PICK: LV-2 ½
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), (7-8-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ New York Giants (5-11), (7-8-1) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS NYG+5
LW, I loved ARZ+11 ½ @ PHILLY. I gave my reasons why and PHILLY has problems that can’t be fixed in just a week. Hence they were upset @HOME by ARZ 35-31. ARZ didn’t give up and they picked the PHILLY DEF apart. ARZ rushed over PHILLY for 221yds & 1td on 40 carries. The HC for ARZ knew the PHILLY DEF pretty well because he was the DC in 2022as I stated in my analysis. LW, I like LAR-5 ½ @NYG because LAR has an explosive OFF that usually can’t be stopped. But NYG didn’t give up and because of the usual conservative play by LAR after they get a lead, NYG stormed all the way back from a 10pt deficit. The score was LAR 26-25 and NYG went for a 2pt conversion to win the game. But, NYG QB Tyrod Taylor’s pass to RB Saquon Barkley was behind him and it was dropped. Barkley could have walked into the endzone. There were some nice plays on the part of NYG as the 80yd td pass play to WR Sterling Shepard by Tyrod Taylor but, there were some self inflicted wounds that NYG couldn’t overcome. L16 PHILLY @ NYG, PHILLY 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS. L33 PHILLY vs NYG, ROAD 20-12-1 ATS. L33 PHILLY vs NYG, DOG 21-11-1 ATS. PHILLY 16-22 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-3 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. PHILLY 1-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PHILLY 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. PHILLY 1-8 ATS as a div FAV after allowing 35>pts. PHILLY 0-7 ATS as a div FAV after allowing 35>pts. NYG 18-23-1 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYG 2-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYG 2-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. NYG 2-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. NYG 17-12 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. PHILLY is playing for the NFC EAST title. They have not looked good at all in the last six weeks. Have teams figured out PHILLY or have they become too predictable on OFF & DEF? I think it has to do with both and the fact that the DEF has disappeared and think they can rely on what they did last season. In the last six games, PHILLY is 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS. PHILLY OLB Hasson Reddick can’t cover anyone and should just stick to sacking QBs. He leads the team with 11 sacks. Guys are also banged up as a whole lot of players are questionable for PHILLY as of this writing. Tyrod Taylor will start at QB for NYG. He always brings excitement and has a better understanding of the OFF than Tommy Cutlets. Taylor also doesn’t turn the ball over as much. He was sacked 6x vs LAR but did not fumble the ball away. The NYG O-LINE has been a problem all season and NYG QB have been sacked a whopping 82x. This has to be addressed seriously if NYG is to get better. If Taylor can get some time out there and NYG can get their running game going, there is no doubt in my mind that NYG can actually win this game. PHILLY #11 RUSH DEF & #28 PASS DEF. PHILLY has had a big problem covering the middle of the field on DEF and Taylor should look to exploit that. If PHILLY wins this game it will be by a fg as they have shown that they are not playing at the capability that they were playing at in the beginning of the season and up until their bye. NYG have nothing to lose and will bring every play out of the playbook to try to beat PHILLY. NYG HC Brian Daboll is a good coach and is not afraid to be aggressive. The crowd will certainly be loud. I like NYG with the points here.
THE PICK: NYG+5
Seattle Seahawks (8-8), (8-8) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (4-4) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-12), (7-9) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (4-3) ATS ARZ+2 ½
LW, I liked PITT+3 ½ @SEA. I liked PITT to run all day vs a SEA DEF that couldn’t stop the run and SEA proved me right. PITT rushed for over 200yds and SEA was falling all over themselves. SEA was actually up 14-10 and the score was tied 17-17 early in the 3rd qtr but PITT stuck with their run game and tightened up their DEF which stymied SEA. PITT won 30-23 and SEA needs a win vs ARZ to have a shot at the playoffs. LW, I liked ARZ+11 ½ @PHILLY because of a few factors on ARZ’s side. The ARZ HC and the fact that PHILLY has become predictable on both OFF & DEF and they were ripe for the pickings. ARZ went run heavy with 221yds rushing & 1td on 40 carries while ARZ QB Kyler Murray was then able to pick the PHILLY secondary apart with 3tds. Murray also spread the ball around to 8different receivers. ARZ won 35-31. It was a nice win for ARZ and they could do it all again next week vs SEA who are terrible vs the run. ARZ is not exactly great vs the run either but they did enough so that PHILLY had to play mostly pass against an ARZ team that wouldn’t go away. L16 SEA @ ARZ, SEA 9-6-1 SU & 9-5-2 ATS. L21 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 15-5-1 ATS. L27 SEA vs ARZ, ARZ 10-15-2 ATS. SEA 16-17-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 1-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. SEA 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. SEA 1-2 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SEA 9-8 ATS AWAY off non-conf opp vs conf opp. SEA 19-5 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.600 opp. SEA 1-6 ATS vs <.500 div opp off SU win. ARZ 17-18-1 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 2-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. ARZ 0-3 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. ARZ 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. ARZ 1-11 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 0-6 ATS L6 @HOME vs opp off non-div SU FAV loss. SEA is playing for a playoff slot. ARZ is not. SEA was 6-3 and looking good when they lost four straight games. Then SEA won two games and then lost one. I felt strongly that the spread, SEA-3 ½ , last week was too big vs a team like PITT. PITT had a serious run game that they have cultivated as of late and if they went heavy with it, SEA would have a tough time against it. I was right and SEA couldn’t stop it. ARZ has a run heavy OFF. This takes a lot of pressure off of QB Kyler Murray. With a run heavy OFF, the SEA DEF will be on high alert. They will have to tackle all the time. After last week’s beating, the SEA DEF is probably pretty banged up. SEA #30 RUSH DEF. ARZ is feisty and like I said last week, ARZ QB Kyler Murray is not as banged up as guys who have played all season. He is always trying to prove people wrong. I said in my analysis why I liked ARZ @PHILLY but other so called “Analysts” act like it was a shocker. I knew otherwise. SEA may try to run the ball a lot here because ARZ is not exactly very good vs the run either. ARZ #32 RUSH DEF. For this game the ARZ D-LINE has to play like gangbusters. ARZ has a chance to knock a team out of the playoff picture and an extra incentive because it is a division rival. Both teams will be pumped for this game but I think ARZ will get the outright win and end SEA’s season.
THE PICK: ARZ+2 ½
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6), (9-7) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Los Angels Chargers (5-11), (5-10-1) ATS, (2-6) HOME, (3-5) ATS KC+3
LW, KC was a FAV-7 ½ @HOME vs CINNCY. I liked CINNCY in this game because CINNCY was fighting for a playoff spot. KC has not looked great all season. But CINNCY made some suspect plays that limited them when they had the chance. The DEF for CINNCY limited KC to 1td & 6fgs for a 25-17 KC win. This game was CINNCY 17-13 at the half and it looked like CINNCY would steam ahead. Instead they called some suspect plays and the KC DEF held for the win. LW, LAC had missed opportunities and self inflicted wounds which led to their 16-9 loss @DEN. I give LAC QB Easton Stick credit. He is trying his best with a banged up OFF that sometimes does not give him the support it needs to win games. His accuracy is 65% which is good but he has also been sacked 11x in 4games. But LAC could have easily won this game and that was what I was thinking because DEN was starting Jarrett Stidham @QB. When two bad teams play each other, you take the bad team with the points. Unfortunately, LAC didn’t get close enough DOG +5 ½, for them to win. L16 KC @LAC, KC 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS. L33 KC vs LAC, ROAD 21-12 ATS. L27 KC vs LAC, DOG 16-11 ATS. L21 KC vs LAC, KC 16-5 SU & 12-9 ATS. KC 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. KC 1-3 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. KC 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. KC 12-3 ATS as a DOG 3>pts. KC 11-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts. LAC 2-2 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LAC 3-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. LAC 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. LAC 8-7 ATS after DEN. LAC 4-12 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs .400> opp. KC is resting Mahomes, so QB Blaine Gabbert will start. Others will be rested for KC but KC HC Andy Reid wasn’t specific. KC is not playing for anything, LAC is just playing. LAC just a mess. LAC is being coached by a guy who mostly has coached parts of a DEF, not the whole DEF. I give Giff Smith credit for stepping in to this situation but he will not be the HC for LAC in 2024. In fact, LAC may clean house at the coaching level and Smith may not even be with the team. So far he’s 0-2 and really wasn’t given much of a chance because QB Justin Herbert is out. LAC did play BUFF tough in that 1st game after Staley was fired but, didn’t show much of an OFF vs DEN last week. A lot of players are banged up and others are out for LAC on both sides of the ball. There is no reason for them to play this week. The only player that needs to prove something is QB Easton Stick. He actually has played decent since Justin Herbert was injured but he hasn’t gotten much support around him because many players have been banged up on OFF. KC faces a different situation than in past years. They will certainly be playing nest week in the playoffs but they most probably will be playing a road game. Plus, KC has not been playing at the level that we have come to expect during the Mahomes era. LAC has very good individual players but they do not put it together as a team. LAC OLB Khalil Mack has had a nice comeback season with 16 sacks. But if you look closely he had 6sacks in 1game and in nine other games, he had 0sacks. OLB Joey Bosa had a second straight season where he couldn’t stay healthy which limited the whole LAC DEF on pressuring opposing QBs. Right now he is questionable for this game after missing the game @DEN. KC needs to stay in the right frame of mind going forward because that could disrupt their game flow and KC could make an early exit in the playoffs. Look for KC to give it their best while limiting LAC to a low scoring output. Take KC and the points here.
THE PICK: KC+3
Los Angeles Rams (9-7), (10-6) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (4-4) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4), (11-5) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (5-2) ATS LAR+3 ½
LW, LAR was @NYG. LAR had a nice lead but again decided to play conservatively and if it wasn’t for a missed 2pt conversion by NYG, this game would have been lost by LAR. In this game NYG made many mistakes which helped LAR but the LAR DEF went to sleep when they needed to make a stop. LAR gave up a punt return for a td and there was sloppiness on both sides with LAR QB Matthew Stafford throwing 2INTs and WR DeMarcus Robinson losing a fumble. The DEF did sack NYG QB Tyrod Taylor 6x but he was still able to pass for 319yds and an 80yd td. LAR was lucky to come away with the win. LW, SF was @WASH just toying with WASH. SF was a HEAVY ROAD FAV-13 but they did what they needed to do to win, 27-10. SF RB Christian McCaffrey suffered a calf injury and certainly will be resting this week. This game was SF 13-10 at the half and then SF scored 2tds in the 2nd half while closing the door defensively on WASH. WASH Sam Howell threw 2INTS in the 2nd half one of which was turned into a td by SF. SF WR Brandon Aiyuk had 7 catches for 114yds & 1td. L16 LAR @SF, LAR 4-11-1 SU & 6-10 ATS. L33 LAR vs SF, LAR 8-24-1 SU & 13-20 ATS. L23 LAR vs SF, LAR 8-15 ATS. L9 LAR vs SF, LAR 0-9 SU & 2-7 ATS. L13 LAR vs SF, DOG 7-6 ATS. LAR 8-15-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAR 2-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. LAR 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. LAR 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LAR 7-5 ATS w/div revenge. SF 3-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. SF 3-0 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SF 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. SF 13-3 SU & 9-5-2 ATS L16 season last HOME gm. SF 8-0 ATS @HOME vs .500> conf opp. SF 8-3 ATS after allowing 10<pts. SF RB Christian McCaffrey is not playing in this game. Don’t be surprised if QB Brock Purdy does not play in this game either. SF has nothing to play for as they have locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. A loss here would not change their position. LAR is in the playoffs as a wild card and so too have nothing to play for. Carson Wentz is getting the start @QB over a resting Matthew Stafford. Plus, a lot of the big starters are out for LAR which puts them at a disadvantage. LAR has won six out their last seven games but in the last three games they have let their opponent catch up and almost catch LAR. SF will probably start QB Sam Darnold who will have something to prove here but will not have all the OFF weapons that SF is accustomed to. LAR will be on full notice with a playoff spot in mind. Also, these two teams played each other in wk 2 @LA with SF winning 30-23. LAR HC Sean McVay had LAR kick a fg with :00 on the clock which was meaningless because SF was up 30-20. Maybe he had money on the game because SF was a FAV-8. As those who know me, I am not a big fan of McVay and he is just very lucky, not very good. I see SF still winning because SF will have the week off anyway to rest. With Wentz @QB and LAR resting all their stars, SF should win. Sam Darnold & CO should get the job done. Take SF here and lay the points because SF should still win.
THE PICK: SF-3 ½
Dallas Cowboys (11-5), (9-7) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-5) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-12), (6-10) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (0-7) ATS WASH+13 ½
LW, DAL @HOME vs DET, DAL got away with one and should have lost 21-20. But instead, they won 20-19. DAL was outplayed by DET and the DAL run game was not helping out. DAL WR Ceedee Lamb had his best game with 13catches for 227yds and 1td. The DAL DEF could not stop the DET run game which gave up 125yds & 1td on 31carries. LW SF was a BIG FAV-13 @WASH. SF toyed with WASH. WASH was without QB Jacoby Brissett and had to settle for Sam Howell. Howell tried to keep up with SF but was intercepted 2x and sacked 1x. The run game for WASH was no help with only 62yds on 14 carries in a catchup game. L16 DAL @WASH, DAL 10-6 SU & 8-8 ATS. L23 DAL vs WASH, DAL 13-10 ATS. L19 DAL vs WASH, ROAD 10-9 ATS. L29 DAL vs WASH, DOG 15-13 ATS 1 PICK’EM. L29 DAL vs WASH, WASH 18-15 ATS. DAL 22-13-1 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 2-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. DAL 2-3 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DAL 1-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. DAL 11-20 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 25-10 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 6-8-1 ATS off SU win vs div opp w/revenge. DAL 9-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SU win vs .333<opp. DAL 8-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off DD SU loss. DAL 13-4 ATS off SU win vs .333<opp. WASH 18-22 ATS L40 as a HOME DOG. WASH 9-11 ATS in 2nd in BB HGs. WASH 3-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. WASH 1-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. WASH 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. WASH 14-9 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 17-4 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 6-18 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 14-21 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 14-16 ATS as a HOME DOG vs >.400 opp. WASH 11-7 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600> opp. WASH 2-13 ATS vs <.750 div opp off SU win. This is WASH’s SuperBowl. This is probably Ron Rivera’s last game as HC of WASH. I’m sure that other coaches will be let go too. But, they could go out with their heads held high if they knocked DAL out of the NFC #2 seed. There are a lot of holes on the WASH team but they do have some young exciting players that they could build around. I don’t know if Sam Howell is the long term QB for this team. Jacoby Brissett gave them some excitement in the last two games he played. Brissett is questionable right now after suffering an injury tat kept him out of the game vs SF. But he brings a better look at the position right now then Howell. Sam Howell is starting for WASH vs DAL. Right now I like WASH because DAL will look to win the game but not rub it in their faces. One thing that DAL is weak in is protecting the run. DAL #20 RUSH DEF. So there is a chance for WASH. WASH will look to win and take down a playoff contender. I like WASH with the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+13 ½
Sunday January 7th, 2024 8:20pm
Buffalo Bills (10-6), (6-9-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-4-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (11-5), (10-6) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (6-2) ATS MIA+3
LW, BUFF was @HOME vs NE. BUFF was a FAV-12 vs NE but I knew that NE would keep it close. NE got turnoveritous and BUFF turned four turnovers into 20pts. BUFF won 27-21 but it would have been closer if NE hadn’t turned the ball over so much. For the most part, NE stopped BUFF offensively but the extra opportunities for the BUFF OFF weighed the NE DEF down. LW, MIA was manhandled @BALT 56-19. MIA was actually in the lead 10-7 and it was BALT 14-13 in the 2nd qtr but, that was when BALT took control. The MIA DEF had no answers for BALT as this was a battle for the #1 seed in the AFC. I liked BALT in this game because of the revenge factor from last season and the injuries to MIA WR Jalen Waddle and RB Roheem Mostert. I felt that MIA was at a disadvantage and nothing was stopping BALT. I was right. BALT dropped almost 500yds of OFF on MIA and the MIA OFF was playing catchup all game. MIA is in need of a BIG bounceback here. L16 BUFF @MIA, BUFF 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS. L29 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 16-12, 1NL. L32 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 18-13 ATS, 1NL. L13 BUFF vs MIA, BUFF 11-2 SU & 8-4 ATS 1NL. L25 BUFF vs MIA, HOME 14-10- ATS, 1NL. BUFF 14-19-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 3-0 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. BUFF 3-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 0-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. BUFF 21-17 ATS as a DIV FAV 3>pts. BUFF 9-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. BUFF 5-5 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BUFF 8-2 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 7-13-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. MIA 2-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MIA 3-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. MIA 9-15-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 4-9 ATS as a DOG >2pts after allowing 35>pts. MIA 12-4 ATS @HOME w/div revenge. MIA 10-3 ATS @HOME vs conf opp off 3+SU wins. MIA 2-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs .500>opp. This game is for the AFC EAST title and at least a guaranteed HOME game in the playoffs. These two teams played each other in wk 4 @BUFF and BUFF manhandled MIA 48-20. I had liked MIA for that game because I thought they were taking the next step. But, MIA came out flat and the DEF didn’t do their job. BUFF came out strong and BUFF WR Stefon Diggs had one of his best games of the season with 6catches for 120yds & 3tds. If I was MIA HC Mike McDaniel, I would remind the team of that game all week and the playoff game last season that MIA barely lost @BUFF. MIA needs to bounceback quickly after their big loss @BALT. MIA lost LB Bradley Chubb with an ACL tear and CB Xavier Howard is doubtful with a foot injury. MIA WR Jaylen Waddle & RB Raheem Mostert are both questionable. MIA cannot go into the playoffs with a big loss here. They have to find a way to stop the Josh Allen express. He is banged up with a sore neck but says he is ready to go. For BUFF, they cannot have any turnovers or MIA will capitalize. Same thing for MIA. Both have high powered OFFs. MIA has a few more better players and they need to spread the ball around. This will be a hard fought game but I think MIA finds a way to win this game. Take the HOME team and the points.
Due to the recent news about many MIA players not participating in this game due to injury and other reasons, I have changed my pick to BUFF-3.
THE PICK: BUFF-3