2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 17 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday December 28^th, 2023 8:15pm

New York Jets (6-9), (5-9-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (1-4-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (10-5), (7-7-1) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (5-2-1) ATS              NYJ+7

LW, NYJ were leading @HOME vs WASH, 27-7 and decided to stop playing DEF. WASH QB Jacoby Brissett led 3td drives in the 2^nd half to take the lead 28-27 before NYJ kicked a last second fg to win the game 30-28. I liked WASH+3 in this game because I felt WASH would give NYJ a game. WASH did and should have won the game. As for NYJ, they play CLEV. LW @HOU, CLEV had a commanding lead in the 4^th qtr 36-7 before they let HOU come back a little in this game. HOU score two quick tds and the score was now CLEV 36-22. CLEV QB Joe Flacco who left the game with the big lead, had to come back in to get a few 1^st downs and put the game away. CLEV did not get a good run game going but CLEV WR Amari Cooper had his best day with 265yds & 2tds on 11catches. He was the star for CLEV. L12 NYJ vs CLEV, NYJ 8-4 SU & 6-4-2 ATS. NYJ 2-6 ATS L8 on TNF. NYJ 4-4 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. NYJ 5-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. NYJ 5-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYJ 5-14-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 39-32-1 ATS AWWAY in DEC. NYJ 48-42-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 30-31-1 ATS L62 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 9-2 ATS off SU win but ATS loss. NYJ 9-2 ATS AWAY off SU win but ATS loss. NYJ 11-20 ATS L31 after scoring 25>pts. NYJ 6-17-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG <17pts vs opp off SUATS win. CLEV 9-3 ATS on TNF. CLEV 6-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. CLEV 5-2 ATS as a FAV on TNF. CLEV 17-30-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 11-16-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 3-8 ATS before CINNCY. CLEV 7-22 ATS off DD SU win. These two teams played each other @CLEV in wk 2 lasts season with Joe Flacco leading the comeback for the NYJ. CLEV was up 30-17 with 1:55 to play. NYJ then went 2plays for 75yds and a td. Then, NYJ got an onside kick and went 9plays for 53yds in 1:00 for a td to make the score NYJ 31-30. Then, finally, CLEV got the ball back but CLEV QB Jacoby Brissett threw an INT and the game was over, NYJ 31-30. An incomparable comeback early in the season by NYJ. However, in that game, CLEV rushed all over NYJ for 184yds & 3tds on 37 carries. CLEV RB Nick Chubb was the main RB at the time but CLEV still has a healthy run game vs teams that can’t stop the run. CLEV #11 RUSH OFF vs NYJ #24 RUSH DEF. NYJ finished the season 7-10 while CLEV also finished the season 7-10. This season CLEV is a lot better while NYJ are completely out of it. CLEV still has a lot to play for as they would at least like a HOME playoff game. They need to keep winning if they want to achieve that. The next game for CLEV is @CINNCY so CLEV should be well rested after this one. CLEV QB Joe Flacco has been playing decent and he knows the NYJ DEF from being on the team last season. CLEV should win this game by at least 10pts unless they give NYJ gifts. The DEF for CLEV should wreck havoc on whoever is the QB for NYJ. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: CLEV-7

Saturday December 30^th, 2023 8:15pm

Detroit Lions (11-4), (10-5) ATS, (6-2) AWAY, (6-2) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (10-5), (9-6) ATS, (7-0) HOME, (6-1) ATS                                DET+6

LW, DET got away with one. They barely beat MINN, @MINN 30-24. Even with 4 sacks & 4INTs of MINN QB Nick Mullens, DET needed a last second INT almost in the endzone to close the door on MINN. MINN was driving and Mullens threw a wobbler that was intercepted for the game. If it was a better pass, DET may have lost. The DET DEF gave up some major yardage and when they needed a stop, they didn’t get it, they just got lucky. LW, I knew DAL @MIA was going to be a good tough game. I liked MIA-1 ½ because I felt strongly that it would be decided by a fg at the most. I also felt that MIA would win because DAL is a very different team on the road. This was a battle that went down to the wire and in the end DAL couldn’t stop a drive that resulted with MIA kicking a fg to win 22-20. The only mistake made by DAL was an early fumble by DAL QB Dak Prescott that resulted in a fg by MIA. Other than that DAL & MIA went toe-to-toe. L11 DET vs DAL, DET 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. DET 10-15-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs, 1NL. DET 43-43-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DET 35-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 4-15 ATS after MINN. DET 11-7 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. DAL 33-47-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 32-37-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 7-16 SU & 8-15 ATS in gm 16 since 2000. DAL 4-13-1 ATS as a FAV vs .666> conf opp. DAL 12-11 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. Last season, DET played at DAL in wk 7 with DAL winning 24-6. In this game, DET was leading at the half, 6-3. But, DET had two straight possessions that were an INT & a fumble that led to 2tds for DAL in the 4^th qtr. DAL ended up winning 24-6. Do you think there is some revenge on the minds of DET. DAL is coming off 2straight losses on the road. They lost badly @BUFF and a squeaker @MIA. But in the confines of AT&T stadium, DAL has looked almost indestructible. When DET has turnovers, they lose  and lose badly. This is the matchup that I like, DET #3 RUSH OFF vs DAL #19 RUSH DEF. DAL rushing OFF was held in check last week except for some end arounds. They did give up 91yds to MIA but how much will they give up to DET RBs Jamyr Gibbs & David Montgomery? With a solid run OFF, DET could drop passes to their receivers. However, the DET DEF sometimes goes to sleep. DET #15 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF. This is a statement game for DET. This is a must win game as they are playing for position in the NFC. DAL is also playing for position so DAL will throw everything at DET except the kitchen sink. Who has DET beaten that is so good? DET has lost to SEA, @BALT, GB & @CHI. DET has to show that they can beat playoff caliber teams. For DET to win, they have to get their run game going and use it often. Also, the revenge factor has to play heavy on the minds of DET. But in the end, I think DAL will win the game but by less than the spread suggests. That is why I like DET with the points.   

THE PICK: DET+6

Sunday December 31^st, 2023 1:00pm

New England Patriots (4-11), (4-10-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-6), (6-8-1) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (4-4) ATS                   NE+12

LW, LAC @HOME gave BUFF all they could handle and needed a fg with :28 left to win 24-22. BUFF was a BIG ROAD FAV-10 ½ but, LAC came out swinging and didn’t lay down. BUFF made some mistakes that led to LAC points and that didn’t help their cause. LW, NE was a BIG ROAD DOG+6 ½ @ DEN. But NE played tough and built a 23-7 lead before DEN tied it up with 2tds and 2-2pt conversions. However, NE didn’t panic and NE QB Bailey Zappe moved the ball down the field and NE kicked a winning fg with :02 left to win 26-23. I had liked DEN in that game because of the bounceback and thrashing they took @DET the week before. But DEN played flat and NE took advantage of it and some mistakes by DEN. The NE DEF sacked DEN QB Russell Wilson 5x and stopped him from winning the game for DEN. L33 NE vs BUFF, NE 25-8 SU & 19-12-2 ATS. L16 NE @BUFF, NE 11-5 SU & 6-9-1 ATS. L40 NE vs BUFF, NE 32-8 SU. NE 10-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NE 38-27-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NE 26-18-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 38-35-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 3-9 ATS AWAY vs .500> opp w/revenge. BUFF 27-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 40-36 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 29-31 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. BUFF 21-16 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 7-1 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 9-3-1 ATS before MIA. BUFF 6-1 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. BUFF 7-2 ATS w/revenge vs <.500 opp. These two teams met in wk 7 @ NE with NE winning 29-25. In that game NE held BUFF to 81yds rushing and put it all on BUFF QB Josh Allen’s shoulders. The NE DEF held up. NE QB Mac Jones played in that game and it was probably his best game of 2022. But Zappe will be the starter for this one and he is playing with a chip on his shoulder. He needs to make some good decisions because the crowd and BUFF will be pumped. The NE DEF is very underrated as NE has played decent on the road. There certainly will be some revenge on the minds of the BUFF players and I like BUFF to win this game. However, I don’t think it will be a runaway for BUFF as they tend to play down to their competition. NE #8 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. NE has nothing to play for and all the pressure is on BUFF. NE has a nice DEF and when they get a couple of guys back for 2024, this team will be even better. I like this game to be closer than the spread suggests and if BUFF get turnoveritous, NE may put a damper on BUFF’s playoff hopes. I like NE and the points here. 

THE PICK: NE+12

Atlanta Falcons (7-8), (7-8) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Chicago Bears (6-9), (8-6-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS                                 ATL+3

LW, I should have known that QB Taylor Heinicke would give ATL a boost @HOME vs INDY. ATL used a heavy run game wisely, 177yds & 1td on 30 carries while Heinicke dropped in passes on an INDY DEF that was unprepared. After an ATL 13-7 lead at halftime, the ATL OFF & DEF stepped it up in the 2^nd half by limiting INDY to 3pts while scoring 17pts for the 29-10 win. The ATL DEF sacked INDY QB Gardner Minshew 6x. LW, CHI wanted nothing to do with an ARZ team that may give them a loss. CHI rushed for 250yds & 2tds on 39 carries. CHI RB Khalil Herbert had 122 yds rushing & 1td on 20 carries while QB Justin Fields had 97 yds rushing & 1td on 9carries. ARZ could not stop the run when they needed it most. Fields also spread the ball around to 7different receivers which had ARZ scratching their heads for most of the game. CHI had 13 1^st downs on rushes which ARZ couldn’t stop. CHI won the game 27-16. L8 ATL vs CHI, ATL 4-4 SU but 2-5-1 ATS. ATL 15-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ATL 40-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 35-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 9-5 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. ATL 9-2 ATS as a DOG <6pts vs NFC NORTH. CHI 8-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CHI 28-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CHI 40-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 9-6 ATS before GB. These two teams met in wk 11 last season @ATL. In that game, Marcus Mariota was the ATL QB and ATL rushed for 149yds while CHI rushed for 160 yds. Both teams were run heavy but ATL won the game 27-24 with a fg at 1:47 left on the clock as CHI then threw an INT which ended the game. CHI was in the midst of a 10game losing streak to finish the season 3-14. ATL would end up the season 7-10. CHI is basically out of the playoff race but ATL still has a shot at a playoff berth. ATL #8 RUSH OFF vs CHI #1 RUSH DEF. ATL QB Taylor Heinicke gives the team a better chance to win over the inconsistent Desmond Ridder. CHI #2 RUSH OFF vs ATL #15 RUSH DEF. If ATL can get RBs Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier going plus stop some of the CHI run game, they can win this game. If not, it will be over early. Each team needs to make adjustments but we will know early if they have done them. ATL HC Arthur Smith needs a win here or it will be an early exit for him after the season. I like ATL with the points.

THE PICK: ATL+3

Las Vegas Raiders (7-8), (8-6-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (8-7), (9-6) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (4-3) ATS                            LV+3

LW, LV was a BIG DOG+10 @KC. You would think KC would come out blazing after not looking great @NE. Also, that there would be a little letdown after LV @HOME beat the stuffing out of LAC on TNF, 63-21. That game only seemed to invigorate LV in their rematch with KC. The OFF for LV was dismal but the KC OFF helped LV in this game as LV recovered a fumble from KC and ran it in for a td. Then LV CB Jack Jones picked off KC QB Pat Mahomes for a 33yd td. Those 2tds and 2fgs helped LV beat KC 20-14. LV RB Zamir White helped LV keep the KC OFF off the field with 145yds on 22carries. LV QB Aidan O’Connell did not complete a pass in the 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th qtrs. He was 9/21 for 62yds. LW, INDY took it on the chin @ATL, 29-10. INDY led 7-0 from the opening possession but it was all ATL after that. ATL was up 13-7 at the half and INDY never caught up. ATL rushed all over INDY for 177yds & 1td on 30 carries. INDY QB Gardner Minshew was sacked 6x in the loss. L10 LV vs INDY, LV 3-7 SU & 5-5 ATS. LV 12-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LV 24-46-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 35-56-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 13-8 ATS AWAY vs AFC SOUTH. LV 6-14-2 ATS after KC. LV 3-18 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins. LV 10-7 ATS L17 vs AFC SOUTH. LV 15-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. INDY 13-6-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. INDY 38-35-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 33-28-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 10-2 ATS as a FAV 8<pts vs opp off BB SU wins. INDY 7-1 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 26-17 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 19-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 13-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU win. INDY 9-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU wins. All of a sudden, LV has an outside shot at making the playoffs. The way the LV DEF has played in the last two games, you have to wonder if it will continue or tail off. LV has certainly found a run game that can be called dependable. In the game vs LAC, LV rushed for 124yds. INDY #28 RUSH DEF. LV RB Zamir White is hungry for his shot because he knows that RB Josh Jacobs is right behind him. But LV QB Aidan O’Connell is showing that he may not be the long term solution for the team. Last season in wk 9, INDY won 25-20 @LV. Is there a revenge factor here? Two different QBs started that game for both teams. Matt Ryan was the QB for INDY & Derek Carr was the QB for LV. In that game, INDY rushed for 207yds & 2tds on 30carries. LV #22 RUSH DEF. INDY is off a big bounceback loss @ATL and has a lot of positive parts on a team that is also fighting for a playoff spot after the JAGS have been in a freefall and a four game losing streak. LV has a DEF that suddenly goes to sleep. INDY QB Gardner Minshew knows that the team has to play better and he knows whats at stake. This game will see a lot of rushing and whoever makes the stops will win. I like INDY in a bounceback beating LV by a td. 

THE PICK: INDY-3

Los Angeles Rams (8-7), (10-5) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ New York Giants (5-10), (6-8-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS                   NYG+5 ½  

LW, on TNF, LAR @HOME built up a nice lead vs NO, 30-7. Then LAR went to sleep like they usually do and the score was now 30-22. This is what happens with LAR HC Sean McVay. He plays conservative, doesn’t put the competition out, let them have hope and then they come back. It also happened the week before vs WASH. But fortunately for LAR, QB Matthew Stafford is in a nice groove and he has a RB tandem that rushed for 124yds so he didn’t have to win this on his own. LAR has reliable WRs and Puka Nacua had 9catches & 1td for 164yds in this one. LAR was also able to sack NO QB Derek Car 2x and intercept him 1x. LAR also held NO to 35yds rushing. LW, with a 20-3 PHILLY halftime lead, it looked like the rout was on. Then PHILLY came out with two self inflicted wounds and all of a sudden the score was PHILLY 20-18 and NYG wouldn’t go away. NYG QB Tyrod Taylor replaced Tommy DeVito and helped a td drive but he also threw an INT. PHILLY was able to run over NYG at the line of scrimmage for 170yds & 2tds on 35carries. PHILLY held on for a 33-25 win. But for a while it looked like NYG had the momentum for the upset. L8 LAR vs NYG, LAR 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS. LAR 12-7-1 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 12-12 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAR 31-45 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 40-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYG 18-23 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-9 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NYG 49-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 37-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 5-17 ATS vs NFC WEST. NYG 0-12 ATS L12 @HOME vs NFC WEST. NYG 9-3 ATS after PHILLY. NYG 14-11 ATS before div HOME gm. LAR is playing for a playoff spot. They have the edge over SEA but LAR just has to keep winning. NYG QB Tyrod Taylor is starting in this game over Tommy Cutlets who he replaced to start the 2^nd half @PHILLY last week. He gives NYG a better chance at winning because he makes better choices. However, NYG QBs have been sacked 77x this season. Add on the fact that the O-LINE for NYG is worse than horrible and you are now facing LAR DT Aaron Donald & his D-LINE associates. LAR #13 RUSH DEF. LAR is respectable vs the run and with Taylor playing for some kind of contract in 2024, he will be giving it is usual all. Stafford cannot take the NYG secondary for granted. They would love nothing better than knocking some team out of playoff contention. NYG played hard last week and almost pulled off the upset. LAR is a different animal and they are well rested from playing on TNF. NYG are on a short week from playing on Monday. LAR should come out rushing and rush until the NYG DEF just falls down. LAR #10 RUSH OFF vs NYG #29 RUSH DEF. This will take so much pressure off of Stafford and he can then drop passes all over the place. If they stick to this game plan, they will win big. I like LAR here and lay the points because LAR should win by more than a td unless they get cute and start turning over the ball.

THE PICK: LAR-5 ½

Arizona Cardinals (3-12), (6-9) ATS, (1-7) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-4), (7-7-1) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (2-4-1) ATS                    ARZ+11 ½  

LW, PHILLY @HOME had a nice 20-3 halftime lead vs NYG. Then PHILLY came out and committed self inflicted wounds and all of a sudden the score was PHILLY 20-18. The rest of the game was a battle that PHILLY never should have been in and the final was PHILLY 33-25. For a while there it looked like NYG might get an upset. PHILLY did run well in this game but they needed all of their 170yds rushing & 2tds on 35 carries that they could get. LW, ARZ was a DOG+4 @CHI. I liked ARZ because the game plan for ARZ should have been to put a tracker on CHI QB Justin Fields. ARZ didn’t and he beat them up all by himself. Fields was a one man wrecking crew and ARZ played catchup this whole game, to no avail, 27-16. ARZ didn’t turn the ball over but they couldn’t stop Fields as he ran the ball for 97yds & 1td and then passed for 170yds and 1td. Fields did have an INT that ARZ did turn into a td but that was much later in the game when CHI had a nice lead. L10 ARZ vs PHILLY, ARZ 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS. ARZ 9-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. ARZ 48-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 31-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 3-12 ATS w/non-div revenge. ARZ 2-11 ATS AWAY w/non-div revenge. ARZ 19-6-1 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ  13-4 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. ARZ 11-4 ATS L15 vs NFC EAST. PHILLY 8-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 37-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 42-40 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 9-16 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 7-19 ATS L26 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY has not played well down the stretch as they have played at the beginning of the season. The OFF has become stagnant and predictable. But, PHILLY still has a reasonable shot at the #1 seed in the NFC as long as they win their last two games and SF loses at least one game. ARZ is just playing out the string and some jobs for 2024. ARZ really has nothing to play for. However, the ARZ HC Jonathan Gannon was the PHILLY DC in 2022 and may know a few things about PHILLY that other people do not. He knows their strengths and weaknesses. PHILLY #27 PASS DEF.  If you watch the PHILLY DEF, they can’t cover the middle of the field and a lot of categories are down on DEF this season as opposed to 2022. ARZ has nothing to play for but ARZ QB Kyler Murray hasn’t played much this season so he is not banged up like others are. Also, these two teams played at ARZ in wk 5 last season and with ARZ being @HOME DOG+5. PHILLY barely won that game, 20-17. There may be a revenge factor for some of the ARZ players here. ARZ Kyler Murray did have a decent game vs PHILLY so maybe he learned something. I don’t like the BIG spread here and I think PHILLY just gets by with the win. I like ARZ and the points here.

THE PICK: ARZ+11 ½

New Orleans Saints (7-8), (5-9-1) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (3-4-1) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), (9-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS          NO+3

LW, TB @HOME had their way with JAGS, 30-12. This game was 20-0 at the half and 30-6 after the 3^rd qtr so you could turn your sets off there. JAGS contributed to their own demise as they had 2INTS & 2lost fumbles which TB turned into 21pts. JAGS were playing catchup all day to no avail and TB played well on both sides of the ball. LW on TNF, NO was @LAR. LAR built up a 30-7 lead and then NO got 2tds in the 4^th qtr to make the final score look respectable at 30-22. NO could not get their run game going and only had 35yds rushing. But NO gave up 133yds rushing to LAR and couldn’t stop LAR QB Matthew Stafford and his passing attack. L16 NO @TB, NO 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. L15 NO vs TB, NO 9-6 SU & 10-5 ATS. L21 NO vs TB, HOME 10-11 ATS. NO 15-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NO 39-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 34-18 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. NO 29-28-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 26-12 ATS L38 as a ROAD DOG. NO 14-1 ATS as a DIV DOG 3>pts. NO 16-4 ATS AWAY after an SUATS loss. NO 16-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. NO 10-4 ATS before ATL. NO 1-5 ATS L6 w/rest. TB 8-13-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TB 30-35-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. NO 35-37-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 29-33-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 11-15-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 3-13-1 ATS before CAR. TB 5-2-1 ATS L8 as a HOME FAV 3<pts. In their last six games NO has gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS. TB 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS. TB is peaking at the right time while NO is going backwards. TB has beaten, JAGS, @ATL & @GB while losing to @SF & @INDY. NO has beaten CAR & NYG, so what. While they lost @LAR, @MINN, @ATL & vs DET. Right now, TB is playing a lot better than NO. TB beat NO @NO in wk 4 26-9. In that game, TB had their way with NO. In passing yds, TB 239-127. In rushing yds, TB 114-70. In tds, TB 3-0. The DEF for TB got to NO QBS, 3x while NO got to Mayfield 1x. NO can’t stop the run. NO #25 RUSH DEF. Last week, TB didn’t need to run much because JAGS couldn’t stop Mayfield from throwing passes. Right now, these are two teams going in opposite directions and TB QB Baker Mayfield is making a case for a nice contract in the off-season. He certainly has something to play for. Lay the points here as TB should win by a td in a hard fought game. Usually it is very hard to sweep the series in a division in any given year but TB is peaking nicely right now.     

THE PICK: TB-3

San Francisco 49ers (11-4), (10-5) ATS, (6-2) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-11), (6-9) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (0-6) ATS   WASH+13  

On MNF, SF @HOME was dominated by BALT. I had originally liked SF for the game but then I read that the BALT players were publicly stating their frustrations as being a DOG+5. That’s all I needed to hear and I changed my pick to BALT. BALT used this as a psychological motivational factor in their game vs SF. Well, SF could do nothing right and BALT did almost everything right. BALT took control of this game in the 2^nd qtr and never looked back. The only positive for SF was RB Christian McCaffrey who rushed for 103yds & 1td on 14 carries. Every other stat for SF was in catchup mode as BALT built a 33-12 lead. SF added a td to make the final score 33-19 but SF knows that they need to teak some things for the long playoff run. Good thing they play a team like WASH. SF QB Brock Purdy threw 4INTS which were turned into 17pts by BALT. SF QB Sam Darnold came in and he threw an INT too. LW, WASH spotted NYJ a 27-7 lead then decide it was time to play some football. WASH QB Sam Howell was benched at halftime and Jacoby Brissett came in and led 3tds drives and WASH had a temporary 28-27 lead. Unfortunately, NYJ drove down the filed in the last minute and kicked a fg for a NYJ 30-28 win. WASH gave up 164yds rushing & 2tds on 36carries to NYJ that doesn’t bode well this week vs SF. WASH has a lot of holes on their team and they will hopefully be addressed in the off season. But right now, they will be playing a pissed off SF team. L10 SF vs WASH, SF 6-4 SU & 4-5-1 ATS. SF 17-13 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. SF 31-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 40-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 9-3 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. SF 9-0 ATS after non-conf HOME gm. SF 10-14-1 ATS after an SU FAV loss. SF 2-11 AT as a FAV off DD SU loss. SF 10-22 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 6-9 ATS before LAR. WASH 18-21 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. WASH 7-13 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. WASH 42-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 24-37 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 15-8 ATS before DAL. WASH 17-3 ATS as a conf DOG 8>pts. WASH 4-11 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opps. 13-20 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 14-16 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400> opp. WASH 11-7 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600> opp. These two teams played in wk 17 last season @SF with SF winning 37-20. I do not see a revenge factor for WASH here because they are so overmatched. QB Jacoby Brissett is getting the start for WASH in this game. He played well last week vs NYJ in a game that WASH should have won and he played well in garbage time @ LAR the week before. But now he plays a team that is not only better than those two teams combined but pissed off as well. Brissett hasn’t been sacked yet but Sam Howell was sacked 60x. How many times will Brissett be sacked this week vs SF? SF is on a mission to get back on track after being dominated by BALT on both sides of the ball. SF QB Brock Purdy had his worst day as a pro and looks to shrug it off and move forward. The last thing WASH wanted to face is a pissed off SF team. SF #2 TOT OFF w/#4 RUSH OFF & #2 PASS OFF vs WASH #32 TOT DEF w/#31 PASS DEF.  SF #11 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & # 16 PASS DEF. There is a possibility that SF scores 50 pts in this game. After SF lost 3in a row, they beat the JAGS 34-3 while winning 6 straight games while covering all 6. SF is in major bounceback here and needs to keep winning to stay the #1 seed in the NFC. Lay the points here as SF should roll. Also look for some turnovers turned into points by SF. SF cannot take WASH lightly as WASH would love to knock off a playoff caliber team such as SF.   

THE PICK: SF-13

Carolina Panthers (2-13), (5-9-1) ATS, (0-8) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7), (8-7) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (3-5) ATS             CAR+7  

LW, CAR @HOME played GB very tough. CAR has absolutely nothing to play for and you don’t know which GB team will show up. I liked CAR+5 and people thought I was crazy. Well, GB was up 23-10 at the half and I had a strong feeling, CAR would come back. CAR tied the game at 30 but GB went down the field and kicked a fg with :19 left which made it all but impossible for CAR to get anything going. But I knew a fg would decide this game. CAR couldn’t stop the GB run game or their passing game but, they did somehow manage to score points. CAR could have won this game if they made stops earlier in the game. LW, JAGS @TB was no contest. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence hurt his shoulder after coming back from a concussion and TB was dominant on both sides of the ball in this game. TB was up 30-0 before JAGS got 2dummy tds without the 2pt conversions to lose 30-12. JAGS QB CJ Beathard came in for Lawrence. JAGS QBS were sacked 4x and had 2INTS & 2lost fumbles which TB turned into 21pts. It was not a good day. L4 CAR vs JAGS, CAR 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. CAR 33-26 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 42-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 8-11 ATS before TB. CAR 2-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 5-17 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 1-6 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. JAGS 22-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. JAGS 31-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 6-7 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SU losses. JAGS 10-7 ATS before TENN. JAGS 9-14 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. After starting 8-3, JAGS have lost four in a row to now stand at 8-7. Lawrence hasn’t looked good during those four games with 7tds & 5INTS. Plus he has 5fumbles. As of this moment, Lawrence has a strained shoulder and will probably be out for this game. CJ Beatherd will probably get the start. CAR has absolutely nothing to play for. Yet, last week, they gave GB all they could handle. I liked them last week because of that and of course GB took them for granted. JAGS don’t look as good as they did earlier in the season. CAR has players that are still playing for jobs and they have an RB tandem that gives other teams headaches. JAGS have been falling fast and have INDY at their necks. If JAGS somehow find a way to win it will be by less than the spread. CAR hasn’t been particularly good on the road but late in the season, you never know with teams that have nothing to play for. I like CAR plus the points.   

THE PICK: CAR+7

Miami Dolphins (11-4), (10-5) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (12-3), (10-5) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS                    MIA+3

LW, BALT was @SF on MNF. I had originally liked SF but changed my mind when I read that the BALT team felt slighted that they wee such a BIG ROAD DOG+5. The reason why I changed my pick was the psychological factor that played in this game. BALT had an extra incentive to play well vs SF. That incentive is what propelled them to a 33-19 victory. BALT was dominant on both sides of the ball and took advantage of every mistake that SF made. The BALT DEF also created turnovers which led to the victory. If BALT wanted to, they could have easily scored more points but didn’t. BALT QB Lamar Jackson had a very nice game picking apart the SF DEF and then taking off running when he needed to. LW, MIA played a very good and tough game @HOME vs DAL. I liked MIA-1 ½ and it didn’t disappoint. MIA was in a must game because people have said that they don’t beat good teams. DAL is a good team but they have their own problems on the road. But this was a battle to the end and MI didn’t disappoint. MIA didn’t turn the ball over but needed a late drive and a fg with :02 left in the game to win 22-20. The MIA DEF sacked DAL QB Dak Prescott 4x and recovered a fumble which MIA turned into a fg. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa spread the ball around nicely to 9different receivers. L12 MIA vs BALT, MIA 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS. MIA 27-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 32-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 0-7 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins vs .700> opp. MIA 4-6 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. MIA 6-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win in gm 15. MIA 13-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG off SU win vs opp w/revenge. MIA 16-8 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 11-4 ATS as a DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 9-1 ATS as a conf DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 11-1 ATS off SUAST non-conf HOME win vs opp w/revenge. BALT 8-8-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. BALT 43-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 42-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 11-11 ATS before PITT. BALT 1-17 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-31-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 7-9 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 11-16 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 1-11 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins vs .500> opp. BALT 13-6-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC EAST. In wk 2 of last season MIA won @BALT 42-38. BALT was up BIG in this game 35-14 but BALT let MIA come back and win. MIA scored 4tds in the 4^th qtr on passes from MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa and the last td was with :14 left in the game as MIA was down 38-35 at the time. Another psychological motivational factor for BALT here. I’m sure that BALT HC John Harbaugh is playing this up all week. MIA may be without WRs Jaylen Waddle & Robbie Chosen for this game. Chosen suffered a concussion vs DAL & Waddle has a shin injury. MIA RB Raheem Mostert is also questionable for this game. MIA will be going up against the best DEF that they have seen this season. BALT is on a mission.  BALT #6 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #6 PASS DEF. Just ask SF how they handled it. LW, BALT DEF had 5INTS of SF QBs. BALT was a swarm that SF couldn’t get around. BALT & MIA are looking for the #1 seed in the AFC but, BALT is on a mission to get deep into the playoffs after seasons of disappointment. This will be a good game but I like BALT winning by at least a td. I like BALT laying the points here.  

THE PICK: BALT-3

Tennessee Titans (5-10), (6-9) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Houston Texans (8-7), (7-8) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (4-4) ATS                             TENN+4   

LW, TENN @HOME had a chance to beat SEA but couldn’t make a stop on a late drive that resulted in a td and a win for SEA, 20-17. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill was sacked 6x in this game as the O-LINE has been deteriorating since the beginning of the season and needs to be addressed in the off-season. TENN did get a nice run game going here and TENN RB Derrick Henry did bounceback from his disastrous game vs HOU but he faces HOU again this week. LW, HOU was @HOME vs CLEV. HOU was a HOME DOG+2 ½ and without QB CJ Stroud. I didn’t think HOU QB Case Keenum was going to win again after beating TENN the previous week. He didn’t, and was pulled for Davis Mills. It sort of didn’t matter because CLEV was on a mission in this game and rolled out to a 36-7 lead in the 4^th qtr before HOU tried to make a comeback with 2dummy tds in the qtr to make the final score look a little more respectable at 36-22. The HOU secondary had no answer for CLEV WR Amari Cooper who caught 11passes for 265yds and 2tds. L16 TENN @HOU, TENN 7-9 SU & 5-11 ATS. L27 TENN vs HOU, 8-19 ATS. L23 TENN vs HOU, HOME 12-11 ATS. L13 TENN vs HOU, TENN 5-8 ATS. TENN 31-35-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 28-34-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 29-33-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 3-8 ATS before JAGS. HOU 11-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. HOU 25-22 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 21-22-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 13-19-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 12-7-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. HOU 13-11 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 9-2 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs opp w/revenge. HOU 7-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp w/revenge. HOU 26-17-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600< opp. HOU 14-2 ATS off DD ATS loss. HOU 5-2 ATS in 1^st of BB div gms. HOU QB CJ Stroud is slated to start this game coming off missing two games because of a concussion. TENN has absolutely nothing to play for except maybe some revenge for their loss in wk 15 @HOME vs HOU. In that game TENN was up 13-3 and not only watched as HOU tied it up at 16-16 but then in OT, HOU got a fg and won 19-16. Case Keenum was the QB for HOU in that game and he did a pretty good job rallying the team for the win. In that game, TENN RB Derrick Henry rushed for a career low 9yds on 16 carries. TENN QB Will Levis will be back as the starter for this game after his ankle injury sidelined him last week. Stroud has been a pleasant surprise for HOU and may be their QB of the next few years. I like HOU here because Stroud knows what to do and is not afraid to do it. He has help from WR Nico Collins and RB Devin Singletary who take a lot of pressure off the young QB. For TENN, they don’t have the playmakers needed to take pressure off of Levis. TENN WR Andre Hopkins can only do so much. HOU will be pumped for this game knowing that they have a possibility at a playoff spot. HOU is on a bounceback and will be prepared. I like HOU here to win by a td.  

THE PICK: HOU-4

Sunday December 31^st, 2023 4:00pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7), (9-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (8-7), (8-7) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS                             PITT+3 ½  

LW, SEA didn’t give up in their game @TENN. The fact that they were even down 10-6 going into the 4^th qtr to a team that has nothing to play for should be noted. It is noted because SEA is also one of those teams that plays at the level of their competition. In the 4^th qtr SEA scored a td to make the score SEA 13-10. Then, TENN answered with a long drive to make the score TENN 17-13. With 3:21 remaining and SEA needed a td, SEA drove down the field and scored a td with :57 left to make the final score SEA 20-17. SEA could not get their run game going but TENN ran all over SEA for 162yds & 1td on 31 carries. It was a nice comeback win for SEA but it should not have been that close. SEA QB Geno Smith did not turn the ball over after being out with an injury the last two games. LW, PITT demoralized CINNCY. CINNCY QB Jake Browning was not himself and he threw 3INTS & was sacked 3x. PITT capitalized on the 3INTs by turning them into 17pts. This game was PITT 24-0 at the half and you could have turned your sets off there. PITT rushed for 113yds & 2tds on 30 carries which helped QB Mason Rudolph ease into the position as starter. He had a fine day throwing 2tds & 0INTs. PITT WR George Pickens had a great day with 4catches for 195yds & 2tds. CINNCY was without WR Ja’Marr Chase but Browning 3INTs were devastating and PITT was in control on both sides of the ball. PITT ended up winning 34-11 and are still in the playoff hunt. L5 PITT vs SEA, PITT 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. PITT 11-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PITT 30-33 ATS AWAY in DE. PITT 25-16 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 6-9-1 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 12-1 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU win. PITT 23-8 ATS as a DOG vs >.500 opp. PITT 14-4 ATS as a DOG 3>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. PITT 13-3 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 12-3 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 10-1 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs >.500 opp. SEA 38-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 47-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 7-12 ATS before ARZ. SEA 4-9 ATS after non-conf ROAD gm. Both of these teams are still playing for possible playoff spots. SEA has won their last two games after losing four in a row. PITT has won their last game after losing three in a row. QB Mason Rudolph gets the call again for PITT. PITT had a nice running game last week vs CINNCY with 113yds. SEA #27 RUSH DEF. If PITT can balance what they did on OFF vs CINNCY last week and do it again this week, they can win. They also need some sacks and maybe a turnover on DEF. SEA QB Geno Smith had 0turnovers last week @TENN so he’s due. This is a must win game for both teams so they will be bringing out their best. Who on PITT covers SEA WR DK Metcalf? Constant pressure must be put on Smith by the PITT DEF. if they want to win this game. Smith is deadly when he can just sit in the pocket and pick the DEF apart. I don’t see either team winning in a blowout. I see this game going down to the wire because both teams are playing for something. I like either team winning by a fg so I like PITT with the points because it is a little more than a fg.

THE PICK: PITT+3 ½

Los Angeles Chargers (5-10), (5-9-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (2-4-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (7-8), (5-10) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (3-5) ATS          LAC+5 ½

LW, LAC @HOME gave BUFF all they could handle. LAC was a HOME DOG +10 ½ and was actually leading the game 22-21 before BUFF had a to kick a fg with :28 left to win 24-22. LAC QB Easton Stick actually played a good game passing 23/33 for 215yds & 0turnovers. He was sacked 5x. LAC did mange to move the ball up and down the field but was only able to kick 3fgs in the 4^th qtr instead of tds. Stick did spread the ball out to 9different receivers but LAC came up short in this game. LW, DEN was a heavy FAV-6 ½ @HOME vs NE. Well, NE came ready to play and was up 23-7 before DEN miraculously scored 2tds and 2-2pt conversions to tie the game at 23. But, NE was able to drive the length of the field and kick a fg with :02 left to win the game 26-23. In this game, the DEF for DEN was suspect and went missing while the DEN OFF seemed to not be able to get out of its own way. DEN QB Russell Wilson was sacked 5x and at crucial times made some bad decisions. DEN HC Sean Payton was seen on the sidelines yelling at Wilson. I had liked DEN in this game because I thought they would bounceback after the thrashing they took @DET. But this is really a bad team and now they play an LAC team that has nothing to lose. L16 LAC @DEN, LAC 6-10 SU but 9-6-1 ATS. L33 LAC vs DEN, ROAD 19-12-2 ATS. L33 LAC vs DEN, FAV 14-17-2 ATS. L17 LAC vs DEN, DEN 10-6-1 ATS. LAC 29-38-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 33-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 37-29-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 6-16-2 ATS before KC. LAC 27-9-2 ATS L38 as a ROAD DOG >4pts. LAC 8-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG off BB SU losses vs .500< opp. DEN 12-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. DEN 28-36-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. DEN 29-34-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 38-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 2-8-1 ATS before LV. DEN 3-12-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV 6<pts. DEN 3-16 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. DEN 2-13 ATS as a div HOME FAV <17pts vs opp off SU loss. These two teams played each other in wk 14 @LAC with DEN winning 24-7. In that game, DEN was dominant and LAC couldn’t get out of their own way. There should be some revenge on the minds of LAC because DEN has done things with smoke and mirrors. DEN has lost three out of their last four games by falling back into bad habits. DEN QB Russell Wilson has looked bad and made bad decisions. LAC WR Keenan Allen & LB Joey Bosa are both questionable for this game and certainly would give DEN headaches if they were both to play. LAC QB Easton Stick has this game and the next to audition for a job somewhere in the NFL. LAC should get a good running game going vs DEN as DEN is horrible vs the run. DEN #31 RUSH DEF. This would certainly take some pressure of Stick. He looked good in the last game and has learned the OFF well. I like LAC with nothing to lose, some revenge and the points vs DEN. DEN is benching QB Russell Wilson and giving way to Jarrett Stidham. Stidham started the last two games for LV in 2022 and went toe to toe with SF before losing, 37-34. Then LV was blown out by KC in wk 18, 31-13. LAC is looking good here.

THE PICK: LAC+5 ½  

Cincinnati Bengals (8-7), (7-8) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-6), (8-7) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS                           CINNCY+7 ½  

LW, CINNCY @PITT, CINNCY gave themselves self inflicted wounds which were lethal in this game. CINNCY was down 24-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. CINNCY QB Jake Browning who has been a pleasant surprise had a very bad game with 3INTS which led to 17pts by PITT. PITT QB Mason Rudolph who is the 3^rd stringer and started instead of Mitch Trubisky had an error free day in the 34-11 thumping of CINNCY. CINNCY WR Ja’Marr Chase was out but with all the weapons that CINNCY had and something to play for, I thought that CINNCY would take over. Instead, they fell apart. KC also succumbed to self inflicted wounds in their 20-14 loss @HOME to LV. Within the span of 8seconds, LV returned a fumble for a td and then LV CB Jack Jones returned a KC QB Pat Mahomes INT for a td and the halftime score was LV 17-7. LV would add a fg and KC would get a dummy td late to make the score look respectable but KC again beat themselves here. KC RB Isiah Pacheco who started this game after missing 2games with a shoulder injury, left this game with a concussion. LV QB Aidan O’Connell did not throw a pass later than the 1^st qtr and the LV OFF was limited to 2fgs. But, KC could not stop the LV rushing attack which rushed for 157yds on 29 carries and ate up a lot of clock. L10 CINNCY vs KC, CINNCY 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS. CINNCY 16-5-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 10-3-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 30-32-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 48-38 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY10-11 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 18-5-1 ATS L24 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 12-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. KC 8-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 3-18 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 0-8 ATS as a non-div FAV <9pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 40-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 45-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 7-14 ATS after LV. KC 0-5 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss vs opp off DD SU loss. KC 11-5 ATS before LAC. KC 13-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 2-5 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off DD SU loss. KC 11-2 ATS after div gm vs .500> opp. This KC team does not look like the KC teams of the recent years. They drop passes all over the place, turn the ball over and at times the DEF goes to sleep. They are even seen yelling at each other on the sidelines with outbursts that are common to bad teams. The problems that have plagued KC all season cannot be fixed in a week. They will have to be addressed in the off-season. CINNCY is in a bounceback mode and in revenge mode for their playoff loss last season @KC. KC should not be as BIG as a FAV here and I feel strongly that this will be either a very tight game or a game where CINNCY dominates. KC has too many things going on internally to turn it around in a short week. KC has won the AFC WEST while CINNCY is still battling for a playoff spot. CINNCY can get in if they keep on winning. I like them here with points and don’t be surprised if they win outright.

THE PICK: CINNCY+7 ½

Sunday December 31^st, 2023 8:20pm

Green Bay Packers (7-8), (5-10) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (7-8), (9-5-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS                     GB+2

LW, GB needed everything in their arsenal to beat CAR, @CAR. CAR with nothing to play for made the most of a soft GB DEF in the 2^nd half. GB was up 23-10 at the half but CAR scored 20pts while GB needed a fg with :19 left in the game to win 33-30. GB rushed well in this game for 162yds & 2tds on 34carries. GB QB Jordan Love was able to spread the ball around for 2tds and 0turnovers. LW, MINN stayed tough @HOME vs DET but lost 30-24. Even though MINN QB Nick Mullens had 4INTs in the game, MINN had a shot at winning the game in the last minute. Mullens threw a wobbler which was intended for MINN WR Justin Jefferson and it was intercepted at the goal line. Had it been a straight pass, MINN would have probably won. MINN had to rely on Mullens more than usual because MINN could not get their run game going at all. MINN rushed for 17yds & 1td on 11carries. On the other hand, MINN couldn’t stop DET’s run game which is something to think about for GB. L16 GB @MINN, GB 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS. L33 GB vs MINN, HOME 19-13-1 ATS. L23 GB vs MINN, DOG 12-10ATS 1PICK’EM. GB 9-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. GB 19-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 37-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 36-30-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 0-7 ATS as a DOG <5pts vs <.500 opp. GB 2-12 ATS as a DOG w/revenge. GB 2-11 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenge. GB 3-10 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenge vs <.750 opp. MINN 8-6 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. MINN 34-35-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 32-42-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 25-31-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 7-4 ATS after DET. MINN 7-0 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win. MINN 16-9 ATS @HOME off SU loss. These two teams played each other in wk 8 @GB with MINN winning 24-10. But since then MINN has gone through a few QBs with none of them positively standing out. GB has been very inconsistent. Just when you think that GB has turned the corner upward, they play lacklusterly vs inferior teams. They were manhandled @HOME vs TB but with a loss @NYG and a game where they barely got by @CAR, you have to wonder about the team. MINN has only won one game in their last five and they certainly could have won those games. With RB Aaron Jones in the lineup, GB is a much better team. Love doesn’t have to win the game all by himself. MINN has decided that Jaren Hall will be the starting QB this week. He replaces Nick Mullens and his 4INTs last week. Also, for MINN, TE TJ Hockenson is out. This game is a toss up because you don’t know which team one will show up. Whoever has the ball at the end of the game will win this game with a fg. I like GB to win here as the QB situation is a little more consistent than in MINN. Almost a PICK’EM game but GB should prevail.  

THE PICK: GB+2