2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 5
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 5 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles & Los Angeles Chargers
Thursday October 3rd, 2024 8:15pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2), (1-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS TB+3
LW, TB @HOME took control of their game vs PHILLY early 14-0, and went on to win 33-16. It was 24-7 at the half and the TB DEF kept making stops and forcing PHILLY to punt time and time again. The TB DEF sacked PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts 6x and forced 2fumbles which TB turned into 10pts. The run game for TB even managed to get 111yds rushing & 2tds which took pressure off TB QB Baker Mayfield to dissect the PHILLY DEF for 30/47, 347yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. TB had PHILLY playing catchup all game to no avail. LW, ATL had 0tds on OFF and still managed to hang around a game they had no business winning. ATL scored 2tds off a fumble recovery in the endzone and a PICK6 from the hands of NO QB Derek Carr. I liked NO+2 ½ because I had a feeling it would be a close game but I felt strongly that NO should have won outright. It looked like NO was going to win when they put together a nice drive and scored a td with 1:00 left to make the score NO 24-23. But, ATL had 1timeout and a BIG pass interference call for 30yds on NO set ATL up within range for a fg. Four plays later ATL kicked a 58yd fg with :02 left to steal this game from NO, 26-24. The ATL DEF gave up 3tds while the NO DEF stifled ATL all day. L17 TB @ATL, TB 8-9 SU & 9-7-1 ATS . L26 TB vs ATL, HOME 13-12-1 ATS. L16 TB vs ATL, ATL 9-7 ATS. L27 ATL vs TB, FAV 14-12-1 ATS. TB 3-11-1 ATS on TNF. TB 2-7 ATS vs .500> on TNF. TB 3-3 ATS as a RAD DOG on TNF. TB 19-11 ATS in 1st of BB Rgs. TB 8-3 ATS as a DOG <7pts in 1st of BB RGs. TB 14-4 ATS in 1st of BB RGs vs <.600opp. TB 22-39-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 26-39-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT> TB 19-26 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. TB 12-10 ATS before NO. TB 11-17-2 ATS off DD SU win. ATL12-7 ATS on TNF. ATL 9-4 ATS vs NFC SOUTH on TNF. ATL 6-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. ATL 3-1 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. ATL 9-10 ATS before CAR. ATL 30-37 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 25-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. ATL 23-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 1-10 ATS @HOME vs <.800 div opp off SU win. Both teams are coming off wins but TB’s win was more impressive than ATL’s win. ATL didn’t have an OFF td vs NO and needed a pass interference call and a last second fg to pull out the win @HOME vs NO. Cousins was not that impressive vs NO and honestly has not been that impressive period. The DEF for ATL gave up 3tds and at times again looks like they are missing in action. TB QB Baker Mayfield is certainly leading a TB team that no one thought would be 3-1. I did not think that TB would beat PHILLY because of the big revenge factor looming from the playoffs last season. But TB took control early in their game vs PHILLY and never looked back. TB #24 RUSH OFF vs ATL #25 RUSH DEF. TB needs to get their run game going again and should be able to. ATL gave up 131yds rushing to NO but they have RB Alvin Kamara. TB doesn’t have a #1RB because they play it by committee. That strategy will certainly backfire but their key to this game is taking pressure off of Mayfield and letting him do his thing. ATL may have a hangover from their last second win in a game they had no business winning in the first place. TB looks serious and they are beating teams that they would normally lose to. They have impressive wins @DET & vs PHILLY. I like TB here with the points as ATL is just lucky with 2last second wins.
THE PICK: TB+3
Sunday October 6th, 2024 9:30am
New York Jets (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (4-0), (4-0) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS (London, England) MINN+1 ½
LW, I loved DEN+7 ½ because I knew they would keep it close with their DEF. I didn’t know NYJ HC Robert Saleh would help me out with his suspect play calling. Well, DEN held on for the win 10-9. NYJ managed a lousy 3fgs while DEN was fortunate enough to find the endzone. NYJ almost bailed themselves out with a last second fg that would have beat DEN after DEN missed a fg too. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers looked like an old man out there and even an older one at the post game press conference. Rodgers was sacked 5x while the NYJ DEF did not sack DEN QB Bo Nix 1x. LW, I liked MINN +2 @GB and I was looking like a genius with MINN up 28-7 at the half. But, GB made it interesting with suspect play calling by MINN and some big time scoring by GB in the 4th qtr. In the end MINN held on 31-29. MINN RB Aaron Jones rushed for 93yds but it was a sloppy game as MINN had 3turnovers while GB had 4turnovers. L5 NYJ vs MINN, NYJ 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. NYJ 2-9-2 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 9-9 ATS before BUFF. NYJ 31-32-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 26-22-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYJ 8-12 SU & 8-11-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 5-13 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-9 ATS L19 after scoring <10pts. MINN 12-5 ATS since 2007 before their bye. MINN 9-6 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. MINN 28-29-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 20-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MINN 3-8 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. MINN 3-9 ATS @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 6-11 ATS off SU DOG win vs .500>opp. MINN 15-3 ATS off SU DIV win vs .600< non-div opp. I have said it all along that NYJ HC Robert Saleh is not that good of a head coach. He proved it for unteenth time vs DEN. NYJ had 9days to prepare vs a rookie QB and came up lame. Saleh may be good as a DC but as an HC he is terrible. He is on a make it or break it season and right now he is looking mighty bad. At times he looks like he doesn’t have a clue. MINN HC Kevin O’Connell knows a little about Aaron Rodgers. In 2022 O’Connell was the HC of MINN when they played GB 2x with Rodgers as the GB QB. In the 1st game MINN won @HOME 23-7 and sacked Rodgers 5x keeping him off his game. The 2nd time it was vintage Rodgers in payback with GB beating MINN 41-17. In that 2nd game it was GB 27-3 in the 4th qtr while MINN played catchup the whole game. GB used their rush game for over 150yds while Rodgers had an average game. Don’t tell me that O’Connell wouldn’t like to beat up Rodgers again. Also in the mix, MINN Sam Darnold would like to show his old team the NYJ, how well he has progressed since they cut him loose. If I’m Sam Darnold, I use the tools around me and make it a team beating. I like MINN here unless they get sloppy. NYJ have showed nothing so far beating NE and barley beating TENN. MINN has been playing solid football and SHOULD be 5-0 after this weekend. MINN #2 RUSH DEF. Rodgers needs an A-game to beat MINN because MINN #32 PASS DEF. But I like MINN here.
THE PICK: MINN+1 ½
Sunday October 6th, 2024 1:00pm
Carolina Panthers (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS CAR+3 ½
LW, CAR was @HOME playing CINNCY. I felt strongly that with CAR QB Andy Dalton playing is old team that the CAR team would rally around him and beat CINNCY senseless. But there was another factor at play that was larger than that. CINNCY was desperate for a win and could not afford to go 0-4. This was the bigger factor because CINNCY won 34-24. CINNCY never trailed in this game and was up 21-14 at the half and 31-14 in the 3rd qtr. The DEF for CINNCY made stops and CAR was playing catchup to no avail. Never mind the stats for CAR because they were playing against a lax CINNCY DEF at times. LW, CHI was @HOME vs LAR. I liked LAR+3 after their nice win vs SF. But LAR regressed in this game and CHI rushed all over LAR for 131yds & 2tds on 28carries. CHI QB caleb Williams had a decent game and was only sacked 3x. But he had 0turnovers which is more important. CHI was up 10-6 at the half and never relinquished the lead for a 24-18 win. LAR had a last drive to try to win the game but LAR QB Matthew Stafford threw an INT to basically end the game. The CHI DEF played well and only allowed 1td & 4fgs. They created 2turnovers and sacked Stafford 3x. This was a job well done by the CHI DEF. L9 CAR vs CHI, CAR 2-7 SU & 4-4-1 ATS. CAR 7-11 ATS before ATL. CAR 35-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 41-25 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 15-18 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CHI 9-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CHI 25-38-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 13-28-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 7-20 ATS as a conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. CHI 4-14 ATS as a non-div conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. CHI 1-6-2 ATS L9 vs .333<opp. CAR is coming off a loss & CHI is coming off a nice win @HOME vs LAR. THE CAR DEF gave up a lot of points and a lot of ground to CINNCY last week. Plus, they have not looked good in their other two losses as well. CHI has growing pain problems. Their O-LINE is not good and their QB is going threw the process of learning the NFL. If he makes better choices, he should be able to win. CAR #28 TOT DEF w/ #29 RUSH DEF & #19 PASS DEF. LW, CAR sacked CINNCY QB Joe Burrow 0x. They had 1INT. CHI should look to establish the run, even go heavy and then that will open the passing game for Williams. CAR looked good in only one game and that was @LV. That’s another story but it was a win for CAR. I like CHI winning here and covering the spread. CHI SHOULD win by at least 10pts but I would settle for a win by a td. Other than that it would be considered a loss for CHI. These two teams met last season in wk 10 on TNF with CHI winning a squeaker @CHI, 16-13. I don’t see any payback by CAR because they have a different HC, unless CHI gets turnoveritous and beats themselves.
THE PICK: CHI-3 ½
Baltimore Ravens (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS CINNCY+2 ½
LW on SNF, BALT @HOME vs BUFF, BALT steamrolled BUFF on the ground for 271yds & 2tds on 34carries. BALT RB Derrick Henry led the way with an opening 87yd td run where he wasn’t even touched or threatened. BALT won 35-10 but there was moment in the 3rd qtr where with BALT up 21-10, BUFF had mometum and was driving but decided to be cute and lost a fumble. BALT took it the other way and the score was BALT 28-10 and it was over. BALT QB Lamar Jackson was flawless except for 1lost fumble that BUFF could not turn into points. The score was 21-3 at the half and it really was a game that looked like men vs boys. LW, CINNCY was @CAR. The factor that I was looking at was where CAR QB Andy Dalton was playing against his old team. But CINNCY was a desperate team and they could not start the season 0-4. I favored the first factor but CINNCY was favoring the 2nd. Dalton had a decent game but, CINNCY had a better one. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow connected with 6different receivers while the RBs banged out 131yds & 2tds on 30carries. CINNCY scored late in the 2nd qtr and then again in the opening of the 3rd qtr to make the score CINNCY 28-14 and CAR was playing catchup in a game that CINNCY won 34-24. Burrow had all the time in the world as he wasn’t sacked at all and threw 22/31 for 232yds, 2tds & 1INT. L17 BALT @CINNCY, BALT 6-11 SU & 6-11 ATS. L30 BALT vs CINNCY, BALT 10-18-1 ATS 1NL. L26 BALT vs CINNCY, FAV 14-10-1 ATS 1NL. L27 BALT vs CINNCY, BALT 15-12 SU. BALT 22-18-1 ATS L41 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 33-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 31-40-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 17-20-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 6-4 ATS L10 as a div FAV 6<pts. CINNCY 14-9-3 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 25-35-3 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 34-44-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 17-33-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CINNCY 4-6 ATS vs div opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 10-1-1 ATS L12 vs opp off DD SU win. Right now BALT has found their rhythm and that is dangerous for opposing teams. Who is stopping RB Derrick Henry when he gets started? BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY #25 RUSH DEF. If I was BALT, I would rush all day until the CINNCY DEF falls down. BAL has had bad luck @CINNCY. BALT has had some good RBs before but, if Henry is given steam, he is hard to bring down. CINNCY got their desperation win LW but I think that right now BALT is the better team. Divisional games are always tough but BALT needs this win just as bad as CINNCY because right now they are both chasing PITT. CINNCY has played well vs BALT in the past but the options that Jackson has for BALT are what keep opposing DCs up at night. This rivalry typically favors a tight game with not too many runaways. But, considering where they are, BALT cannot afford a setback at this point. They have already lost vs LV & by a foot @KC. They have to put a string of wins together to distance themselves from the rest of the pack. Lay the points here as BALT gets by CINNCY by about 3-7pts.
THE PICK: BALT-2 ½
Miami Dolphins (1-3), (0-3-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-3), (1-2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS MIA+1
LW, NE @ SF gave it what they could but I strongly felt that NE +10 ½ was a good pick because all NE had to do was not turn the ball over and play good DEF. Unfortunately, NE turned the ball over 3x and SF turned two of those turnovers into 10pts. One of them was a PICK6 by NE QB Jacoby Brissett. SF turned the ball over 2x, so NE had their chances. Brissett was sacked 6x which doesn’t give a lot of time to set anything up in the pocket. But from my observations, he needs to step up a little it to avoid the rush. SF RB Jordan Mason couldn’t be stopped and that was a problem for NE. NE ended up losing 30-13. The O-LINE continues to be a problem for NE. On MNF, next up for MIA @QB is Tyler Huntley. This was a close game for the 1st half as TENN took a 9-3 lead. But in the 2nd half, TENN exploded for 22pts while MIA just exploded. I liked TENN in this game because without Tua, MIA is nothing. Even with Tua MIA is overrated and can’t beat anyone good. Huntley was the leading rusher for MIA and they played catchup the whole 2nd half to no avail, 31-12. TENN QB Will Levis started this game but got injured and Mason Rudolph finished in the win. The ball was spread around nicely as the MIA DEF did nothing. L17 MIA @NE, MIA 4-13 SU & 8-9 ATS. L24 MIA vs NE, HOME 18-6 ATS. L24 NE vs MIA, FAV 14-10 ATS. L25 MIA vs NE, MIA 15-10 ATS. MIA 8-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. MIA 23-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. MIA 34-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 36-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 5-10-1 ATS vs .250< div opp. MIA 6-0 ATS off DD ATS loss vs div opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 12-4-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs conf opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 8-1 ATS L9 vs div opp off BB SU losses. NE 8-14 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NE 39-33-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 52-38-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 25-22 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NE 16-14-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 1-11 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs opp off DD SU loss. NE 20-8-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. This is a game that NE could steal away from MIA. MIA is going nowhere and they are overrated. TENN kicked the crap out of them on MNF and MIA is still without a QB. Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses but on paper, MIA has more talent but they are fading fast. No one has expected NE to be good so there is a surprise when they actually play well. MIA is banged up on both sides of the ball and if a good QB gets in there, they will have a field day vs MIA DEF. Maybe NE QB Jacoby Brissett can have that type of game if the O-LINE can hold up. NE has something to play for and this game could actually go down to the wire because the NE DEF is underrated and can make stops. LW, they did what they could but the OFF kept giving the ball back to the SF OFF. When you have turnovers and give the SF OFF more opportunities, they eventually keep scoring. This game could go down to the wire because both teams are pretty inept at scoring. I like NE here as the HOME team because the crowd will be behind them and they have a legitimate shot at winning this game. If the NE DEF can create some turnovers for the OFF and make some stops, NE could actually win this game. I’m thinking they can do it better than MIA can win this game.
THE PICK: NE-1
Cleveland Browns (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS CLEV+3
LW, CLEV was up 10-0 @LV and decided they would rather dig a hole than play football. Before you knew it, CLEV was down 20-10 in the 3rd qtr and the panic button was hit. CLEV made a comeback with a fumble recovery for a td but the kicker missed the point after and the score was LV 20-16. Now CLEV needs a td instead of a fg to tie. CLEV put together a nice drive very late in the game and it that landed them at the LV 16yd line with 2:00 and a 1st down. However, from there on there was some suspect play calling and confusion and CLEV QB Deshaun Watson never got the pass off on a 4th & 3 from the LV 9yard line with :41 seconds left. The final score was LV 20-16. CLEV WR Amari Cooper continues to be a disappointment, dropping passes all over the place. He leads the NFL in this category. He made a crucial mistake that LV capitalized on. With the score only LV 13-10, Watson threw a pass to Cooper who was wide open. The pass hit Cooper straight in the hands then bounced off his chest and into the air where an LV defender caught it and returned it 16yds. LV later scored a td to make it 20-10. A big swing here and CLEV was done as usual. That seems to be the case this season. LW, WASH+3 ½ was @ARZ. I liked WASH in this game because ARZ is overrated and with WASH DHC Dan Quinn being a former DC, he knows how to contain a QB. He must have heard my analysis because ARZ QB Kyler Murray only rushed 1x for 3yds. WASH used a spotter on Murray and also sacked him 4x while putting pressure on him all day. WASH was up in this game 17-7 at the half and then put on the jets in the 2nd half for a 42-14 win. WASH QB Jayden Daniels had another fine day with 26/30, 233yds, 1td & 1INT. He also had 47yds rushing while RBs Brian Robinson & Jeremy Nichols contributed 169yds rushing for 216yds rushing & 4tds. It was a total WASH team effort. ARZ’s stats are inflated because they were playing catchup since the 1st qtr after leading 7-0. L6 CLEV vs WASH, CLEV 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS. CLEV 8-21-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 18-29-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEV 31-39-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 18-25-2 ATS L45 vs NFC. CLEV 3-11 ATS L14 vs NFC EAST. CLEV 9-1 ATS off SU loss vs .500>opp. CLEV 1-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG <6pts vs opp off BB SU wins. WASH 32-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 24-23 ATS as a FAV in OCT. WASH 9-6 ATS L15 as a non-conf FAV. WASH 8-13 ATS as a HOME FAV >2pts vs non-div. WASH 17-6 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 7-1 ATS off DD ATS win. CLEV is messed up and as I said before and others have confirmed, CLEV QB Deshaun Wtason doesn’t look the same. He is not throwing the ball crisp and he is not making good decisions. WASH is a young and pumped up team and they have been beating teams on their schedule. Yes, they have had an easy schedule so far beating NYG, CINNCY & ARZ. They did lose to TB and no one did expect them to beat CINNCY(myself included). This is a relatively easy game for them before a slight rough patch in their schedule. However, CLEV has talent and they need to find a way to put it all together. WASH #6 TOT OFF vs CLEV #11 TOT DEF. At times the CLEV DEF disappears, just ask the NYG. CLEV is on a bounceback but I don’t see them bouncing back on the road @WASH. CLEV is still relying on RB Jerome Ford to get the job done until a healthy Nick Chubb can return. Ford hasn’t been a getting a full load and has been doing a good job in a limited role. The O-LINE for CLEV is terrible and hasn’t been doing a good job at protecting Watson who seems under pressure on every play. He has been sacked 19x and has 4fumbles. With CLEV playing against an HC that knows how to dial up the DEF and an OC Kliff Klingbury who knows how to dial up the OFF, CLEV is in trouble here. By the way, how satisfying was the win for WASH’s OC Kliff Klingbury @ARZ last week? A little payback I should say. Anyway, I like WASH to continue their hot streak here before they really have to show who they are next week @BALT. I like WASH laying the fg here as CLEV may not have any answers & Watson will be under pressure.
THE PICK: WASH-3
Indianapolis Colts (2-2), (2-1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), (1-2-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS INDY+2 ½
LW, the best thing that could have happened for INDY was that QB Anthony Richardson left the game. I am not saying that I was glad he was injured. I would never say that but, Joe Flacco came in and led INDY to a nice 27-24 win. He looked flawless, throwing 16/26, 168yds, 2tds & 0turonvers. Richardson is a runner first but Flacco is a pure passer. I liked PITT-2 in this game but with Flacco in and not Richardson, INDY is a totally different team. INDY was up 17-3 at the half and PITT was playing catchup. They had a nice comeback in the 2nd half but came up just a little bit short and didn’t get into fg range to kick what would have been a tying fg in a 27-24 loss. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 88yds & 1td on 21carries but sustained a sprained ankle in the win. JAGS just look like a bad team that has no motivation. Just when it looked like they may get the upset @HOU, 20-17, HOU puts together a late drive to win the game 24-20. JAGS DEF was really nowhere to be found as HOU QB CJ Stroud marched right down the field on 9plays and HOU scored the winning td with :18 seconds left on the clock. HOU had done nothing in the 2nd half, punting 5x while giving up a td after leading at the half, 17-13. In the 1st half it looked as though JAGS were playing with desperation as they contained HOU and even were leading 20-17 but, they couldn’t finish the job. JAGS did get some nice running from their RBS for 158yds on 24carries. This helped take pressure off of QB Trevor Lawrence who passed for 2td & 0turnovers in the loss. L17 INDY @JAGS, INDY 6-11 SU & 6-11 ATS. L34 INDY vs JAGS, ROAD 16-16-2 ATS. L29 INDY vs JAGS, FAV 15-11-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. L23 INDY vs JAGS, JAGS 13-8-2 ATS. INDY 11-5-2 ATS before TENN. INDY 11-10-3 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. INDY 20-29-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 33-31-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 30-32-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 6-9 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG w/revenge. INDY 2-6 ATS off SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses. JAGS 9-11 ATS after HOU. JAGS 16-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 20-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 18-29 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. JAGS 7-6 ATS as a HOME FAV after BB SU losses. JAGS 7-1 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .500>opp. JAGS 11-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 9-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 14-4 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 3-11 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 0-5 ATS L5 vs opp off SU DOG win. Right now, INDY QB Richardson’s status is up in the air. But if Flacco starts I like INDY. If Richardson is back, the spread will change. Also, INDY RB Jonathan Taylor has been limited with a sprained ankle which would definitely hamper the INDY OFF. As of Friday, Taylor has been ruled out for this game and the status for Richardson is still up in the air after limited practice three days in a row. As for the JAGS, they haven’t won a game since last season and it is looking desperate for them. The DEF for the JAGS is not putting any pressure on opposing QBs with only 7sacks & 0INTS so far this season. Something has to give in this game and JAGS have not found out what it is. Flacco is the safer bet for INDY because INDY has a lot invested in Richardson and they don’t want to see him injured further. With Taylor out, who picks up the slack for INDY @RB? Taylor was leading INDY in rushing with Richardson @ #2. It’s a tough decision because even if Flacco starts for INDY he will have a nobody back there @RB. JAGS #10 RUSH DEF. INDY can be run against, INDY #31 RUSH DEF. With all things considered and JAGS in a desperate place for a win, you have to go JAGS. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they find a way to lose but I’m leaning on the side of desperation and INDy without their RB.
THE PICK: JAGS-2 ½
Buffalo Bills (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (3-1), (0-3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (0-2) ATS HOU+1
LW, on SNF, BUFF was down 21-10 @BALT and BUFF had momentum to turn the game around. But, then they got cute and fumbled the ball away and the game. BALT then got another td to make the score 28-10 and the game was essentially over. The final score was BALT 35-10 and the BUFF DEF could not stop BALT RB Derrick Henry & CO to the tune of 271 yds rushing & 2tds on 34 carries. Henry opened up with an 87yd td run where he wasn’t even touched. BUFF had played catchup after that and never caught up. The BUFF DEF never really put any pressure on BALT QB Lamar Jackson and he had his way with BUFF. LW, HOU was up 17-13 at the half @HOME vs JAGS. It looked like HOU was poised to open the game up in the 2nd half. But in the 2nd half, JAGS scored a td to make the score JAGS 20-17 while HOU punted on 5straight possessions. It took a last drive by HOU QB CJ Stroud with a td at :18 in the 4th qtr to pull out the win, 24-20. It should never have been like this and I think HOU took JAGS for granted. At this points, JAGS have nothing to lose while HOU has everything to lose. HOU cannot afford to lose to a team like JAGS as they are trying to take the next steps forward to be considered as one of the better teams in the AFC. Also, the run game for HOU has not been the same without RB Joe Mixon. HOU managed 101yds rushing with RB by committee and some runs by Stroud. Mixon is still questionable with his knee and at this time I would say for this upcoming game vs BUFF, I would not expect him to play. L8 BUFF vs HOU, BUFF 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS. BUFF 15-19-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 14-7-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BUFF 6-13 ATS before NYJ. BUFF 28-41-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 32-33-12 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 13-6 ATS after scoring 10<pts. BUFF 6-1 ATS L7 as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. HOU 15-20 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. HOU 10-6-2 ATS after JAGS. HOU 12-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. HOU 20-23-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 20-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 11-3 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 5-5 ATS L10 off SU div HOME win vs non-div opp. BUFF is on a bounceback after a BIG loss on SNF. BUFF’s loss is bad because it exposed some weaknesses on their DEF. HOU QB CJ Strong showed that he can bring a team back and is not deterred by the heat of the moment. However, HOU barely beat a JAGS team that can’t find themselves. I like BUFF on the bounceback as they are a little better than HOU. HOU is getting better but they were stagnant vs JAGS. BUFF made some mistakes on DEF that cost them vs BALT and they can be corrected. BALT is a very good team, JAGS not so much. HOU has beaten three teams that are not going anywhere, @INDY, CHI & JAGS. They got blown out @MINN. Right now MINN is where BUFF is. BUFF has beaten ARZ, @MIA & JAGS but lost @BALT. BUFF is a better team and can make corrections on the fly. This game will be tight with any turnovers becoming a critical factor of the game going the other way. I don’t see a blowout here as it could come down to the wire with a fg. I like BUFF to prevail in this game in what possibly could be a shootout.
THE PICK: BUFF-1
Sunday October 6th, 2024 4:00pm
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS LV+2 ½
LV is very lucky. They were playing CELV and CLEV is a mess. CLEV shot out to 10-0 lead and I thought CLEV would actually put together a good game. But LV scored 20straight points and CLEV was looking at a catchup situation, again. Then CLEV returned a fumble for td and it looked like CLEV had the momentum but they missed the extra point which left the down 20-16 instead of 20-17. LV did nothing the rest of the game and neither did CLEV needing a td to win instead of a tying fg. CLEV had a last drive but could not get a 4th down pass in the air deep in LV territory and that was the ball game. LV escaped with the win. LV was able to run all over CLEV for 152yds &2tds on 29carries. I said the DEF for DEN is underrated. They proved it last week @NYJ. They sacked NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers 5x and recovered 1fumble. It was a tight game because the OFF for DEN was lethargic and DEN QB Bo Nix wasn’t very accurate. He wasn’t sacked and didn’t turn the ball over but this game came down to missed fgs by both teams at the end of the game. DEN could have extended their lead from 10-9 to 13-9 which would have forced NYJ to get a td to win but, they missed. Then NYJ missed a fg to win the game 12-10. The final was DEN 10-9 but DEN RBs rushed for 123yds which helped take pressure off of Nix. I liked DEN+7 ½ in this game because I knew that the DEN DEF is taken for granted & NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers talks too much for his own good. I thought DEN would keep it very close but I am also happy that they won. L17 LV @DEN, LV 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS. L34 LV vs DEN, ROAD 18-16 ATS. L26 LV vs DEN, LV 15-11 ATS. LV 34-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 40-36 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 23-26 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LV 15-17-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. DEN 13-9-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DEN 3-11-1 ATS before LAC. DEN 37-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 34-41 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 23-21 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 16-13 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 10-9 ATS L19 off SU DOG win. DEN 7-12 ATS as a FAV after scoring 14<pts. DEN 6-3 ATS off BB SUATS wins (last as a DOG). DEN 4-13-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV 6<pts. DEN 7-4 ATS as a FAV off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. DEN 1-6 ATS L7 off SU RAOD DOG win. LW, LV was the recipient of a team that beat themselves. CLEV beat themselves and LV happened to be there. LV should have lost but CLEV is very bad. DEN has a DEF that is underrated and creeps up on you. They don’t give up a lot and stop you when you need points. DEN #2 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. The DEN DEF also has 16 sacks. Just ask NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers if he has stopped seeing stars? The problem with DEN is their OFF. DEN QB Bo Nix is learning but at least he didn’t turn the ball over last week vs NYJ, that is a very good sign. But his accuracy and reading the DEF needs to improve. LV WR Davante Adams is out for this game and looking for a trade. DE Maxx Crosby is questionable and if he is not there that will be good for DEN. For DEN, they need to get to the LV QB, whoever it is and make them uncomfortable on every play. This will create turnovers because neither QB Gardner Minshew or QB Aiden O’Connell are that good at reading DEFs. I like DEN here because the DEF will create turnovers in a game that will likely come down to a fg. I would like to see DEN win by a td like they did @TB a couple of weeks ago. That was a nice surprise and they are capable of doing it again especially against an LV team that sometimes goes to sleep on DEF. Take DEN here.
THE PICK: DEN-2 ½
Arizona Cardinals (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS ARZ+7
LW, ARZ was actually winning @HOME vs WASH, 7-0. But then WASH scored 27straight pts with 3tds & 2fgs to open up the game leading 27-7. From there it was over and ARZ lost 42-14. ARZ QB Kyler Murray was sacked 4x and was only able to run 1x for 3yds. Meanwhile the ARZ DEF had no answers for WASH who rushed for a combined 216yds & 4tds on 37carries. The stats for ARZ are all in catchuup mode. ARZ RB James Connor continues to help take the load off of Murray with his consistent positive rushing. But it is the DEF for ARZ that needs help. LW, SF took advantage of NE miscues and a weak O-LINE. SF DEF sacked NE QB Jacoby Brissett 6x, was the recipient of 3turnovers and had a PICK6. SF was winning this game but NE could have kept it closer without all the miscues. The PICK6 by SF LB Fred Warner was a pure example of NE having an inferior team. SF is getting a lot of their stars back from injury and it showed in this game. NE RB Jordan Mason continues to show why he should be in the starting rotation. He rushed for 123yds & 1td on 24carries. He is having a solid season. SF was up 20-3 at the half and coasted to a 30-13 win. L17 ARZ @SF, ARZ 7-10 SU but 9-7-1 ATS. L30 ARZ vs SF, ARZ 13-17 SU & 14-16 ATS. L16 ARZ vs SF, ROAD 11-5 ATS. L18 ARZ vs SF, DOG 9-9 ATS. ARZ 10-10 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. ARZ 24-37 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 40-46 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 21-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ 6-10 ATS off SU FAV loss. 13-0 ATS off BB SUATS lossess vs non-div opps. ARZ 18-4 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 22-9-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 9-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD DOG 14<pts vs opp off SU win. SF 9-9 ATS before SEA. SF 8-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SF 26-20-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SF 47-35-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 33-38-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 0-12 ATS @HOME off non-div gm vs opp off SU FAV loss. SF 5-8 ATS @HOME off SU win vs <.500opp. SF 15-23 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF 8-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. SF 3-17 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ is coming off a beating @HOME by WASH. Murray was contained in the pocket which effectively neutralized him. Can the SF DEF do the same? SF has a spell over ARZ and as SF gets healthy they will be hard to beat. If SF follows what WASH did last week, ARZ will not get anywhere. Murray needs to be able to run out of the pocket to be successful because he is not a pocket QB. Murray is also dangerous when he is on the run and seems to be able to thread the needle. Last week, SF took advantage of mistakes by NE with their week O-LINE. SF #9 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF vs ARZ #12 TOT OFF w/#25 PASS OFF. The key for the SF DEF is shutting down Murray and keeping him in the pocket. I like SF laying the points here if they stick to the plan. If SF lets Murray run wild he beat SF. Yeah, it could happen because no one expects ARZ to win, so they are loose. SF needs to put a string of wins together to show they are back. I like SF here laying the points.
THE PICK: SF-7
Green Bay Packers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS LAR+3
LW, GB was @HOME vs MINN. I liked MINN+2 because it was the return of RB Aaron Jones and I felt with GB QB Jordan Love may or may not playing, MINN should win easily. Well, MINN was up 28-0 and it looked like MINN was cruising but they made some suspect play calling themselves, a turnover and GB was back into this game. However, MINN held on for 31-29 win. GB never led but made it interesting in the 4th qtr with 3tds & a 2pt conversion. Love had 3INTS which resulted in 2tds for MINN. That’s why it was 28-0 in the 2nd qtr with GB playing catchup. GB gave up the run and Love passed the ball 54x. LW, I felt strongly that LAR would win @CHI. LAR was +3 and after they had a nice win vs SF. All LAR had to do was put pressure on CHI QB Caleb Williams. The O-LINE for CHI is terrible and he had already been sacked 13x and 3 fumbles. LAR did sack Williams 3x but CHI was able to rush for 131yds & 2tds which took a lot of pressure off of Williams to throw the ball. The LAR DEF created 0turnovers and could not stop CHI when they needed to. LAR had missed opportunities while CHI took advantage of theirs in the CHI 24-18 win. L11 GB vs LAR, GB 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS. GB 14-25-1 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. GB 9-12-1 ATS after MINN. GB 34-37-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 36-29-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 2-13-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3<pts. GB 6-17 ATS as anon-div conf FAV/DOG 3<pts. 33-14-1 ATS after div gm. GB 24-10 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 19-6 ATS as a FAV <8pts after div gm. LAR 7-10 ATS since 2007 before their bye. LAR 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. LAR 34-42 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 33-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 6-11 ATS @HOME vs NFC NORTH. Both of these teams are coming off loses but, GB is the better well rounded team. LAR has only looked good in their comeback win @HOME vs SF. In their other games they have not had that luster plus the roster is decimated by injuries. LAR RBs Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers are a good 1-2 punch but GB will be waiting. GB #11 RUSH DEF vs #28 RUSH OFF. Stafford knows what it is like to play GB having been with DET for so many years but that may have worn off because he has been with LAR 3+ years. These two teams met last season in week9 @GB with GB winning 20-3. In that game, LAR QB Matthew Stafford was injured and Brett Rypien was the starter. He wasn’t that good and the LAR OFF was dismal. GB QB Jordan Love and company cruised in this game rushing for 181yds & 1td. GB is battling MINN in the NFC NORTH and GB is expected to go deep into the playoffs. This should be a tune up game for GB and they should be able to cover this game vs a team with many injuries. They have to play clean football with 0turnovers. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: GB-3
New York Giants (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1), (2-1-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS NYG+6
LW on TNF, NYG could have pulled it out @HOME vs DAL. The score was close and DAL wasn’t beating up NYG like in the past. The score was DAL 20-15 and NYG QB Daniel Jones threw a Hail Mary that was intercepted and the game was over at 20-15. Jones actually played a decent game for his standards but the run game for NYG went nowhere for 26yds. Plus, the pass DEF almost put no pressure on DAL QB Dak Prescott as he threw for 2tds & 0turnovers. WR Malik Nabers who is one bright spot for NYG suffered a concussion late in this game and is probably out for this one. On MNF, DET @HOME took it to SEA. SEA has had an edge over DET for the last few years but in this game the SEA DEF couldn’t stop the DET OFF. The SEA DEF couldn’t make a stop and they were playing catchup the whole game. Plus, the SEA DEF couldn’t stop DET QB Jared Goff who was 18/18. SEA WR DK Metcalf had a fumble which DET turned into a td and a 14-0 lead and SEA was in a whole where they could never get out of. SEA scored 29pts but gave up 42pts in the loss. SEA has to play better on DEF, period. They seem a little lax no matter who they play. L11 NYG vs SEA, SEA 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS. NYG 6-10-1 ATS after DAL. NYG 42-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 37-23-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 17-7 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 19-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 28-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 28-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 6-1 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. SEA 13-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. SEA 24-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 26-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 5-12 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs <.500opp. SEA 5-13 ATS before SF. SEA 18-9-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 8-3 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. SEA is on a bounceback and NYG are just terrible. NYG QB Daniel Jones is actually playing decent considering the circumstances but the rest of the tem is awful. The O-LINE has not been able to do their job and that creates a lot of pressure for everyone. Plus, NYG HC Brian Daboll hasn’t exactly been making the right decisions since his 1st season with NYG. NYG #30 RUSH OFF vs SEA #14 RUSH DEF. This is a key to this game because the SEA DEF has to put it all on the shoulders of Jones. He will usually make mistakes when pressured. He had a decent game LW vs DAL with only 1INT and that was from a Hail Mary. He is due for a bad game. SEA is a tough place to play and I expect SEA to win by at least a td off the bounceback loss @DET on MNF. SEA is battling in the NFC WEST. NYG will be rested and SEA may be tired but SEA knows they need the bounceback win. These two teams met in wk 4 of 2023 on MNF and SEA dominated NYG 24-3. Is there some revenge or payback in the minds of NYG? They don’t have the horses to win the race.
THE PICK: SEA-6
Sunday October 6th, 8:20pm
Dallas Cowboys (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DAL+2 ½
LW on TNF, DAL beat @ the NYG, 20-15. A big so what! DAL can’t run the ball and NYG can’t get their act together. Even though DAL did not turn the ball over 1x, this game came down to the wire with the possibility that NYG could pull it out. DAL QB Dak Prescott did manage to spread the ball around to 7different receivers which is good but overall they were playing a bad NYG team. The spread was DAL-4 ½ and I liked them there because I felt with the way that DAL has been playing, this game might be tougher than advertised and it was. DAL was sort of lucky to get the win. LW, I liked PITT @INDY for the revenge factor from 2023. PITT did knock out INDY QB Anthony Richardson but in came Joe Flacco. He has played a lot of games vs PITT and he was smooth as silk. I knew once he came in the game, it was over for PITT. PITT couldn’t disrupt Flacco and INDY was able to counter with a balanced attack that kept PITT off balance. INDY rushed for 133yds and Flacco passed for 2tds with0turnovers. PITT made a nice comeback but fell short when they couldn’t get in field position to kick a possible tying fg. PITT lost 27-24. PITT should have adjusted to Flacco but he picked them apart instead. L5 DAL vs PITT, DAL 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS. DAL 14-12 ATS on SNF vs opp off an SU loss. DAL 19-17-1 ATS L37 on SNF. DAL 12-18 ATS as a DOG on SNF. DAL 16-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 8-9 ATS after NYG. DAL 20-22-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DAL 30-33-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 25-24-1 ATS L50 as a ROAD DOG. DAL 18-8-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <8pts. DAL 12-6-1 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG <8pts. DAL 6-1 ATS vs .500> non-conf opp off ATS loss. PITT 12-19 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PITT 9-13 ATS @HOME on SNF. PITT 42-22-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 50-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT needs to take control of this game from the onset. PITT has to make sure they can stop the run from DAL and put it all on Prescott’s shoulders. Then the D-LINE for PITT can pressure him. PITT #4 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #9 PASS DEF. PITT OLB TJ Watt has to be Prescott’s shadow. LB Micah Parsons is probably out for DAL. DE DeMarcus Lawrence has been placed on IR. Those are two big gaps on DEF for DAL. PITT QB Justin Fields needs to take what the DAL DEF gives him. PITT is on a bounceback and DAL might be a little high off their win @NYG. But in reality, beating NYG is nothing to brag about. DAL is just not that good and PITT can surprise you. But they need to win games no matter who the QB is. I like PITT here with the HOME crowd on SNF and laying 2 ½ is less than a fg. PITT should win this game by at least a td because I can see multiple turnovers for DAL and no one stopping PITT on OFF. PITT can stop the run game cold for DAL because no one has stepped up in the RB position that has been by committee. DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott is not the same and can’t be relied upon. DAL WR Brandin Cooks is out for this game with an infection. That is one less target for Dak. PITT should have a good game on both sides of the ball.
THE PICK: PITT-2 ½
Monday October 7th, 2024 8:15pm
New Orleans Saints (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0), (2-1-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (1-1) ATS NO+5 ½
LW, KC @LAC spotted LAC a 10-0 lead then put the clamps down on LAC. KC scored 17straight points while allowing 0pts the rest of the way. KC RB Kareem Hunt made his return and helped out with 69yds rushing on 14carries,. This kept the LAC DEF at bay and gave KC QB Pat Mahomes time to dissect the LAC DEF and spread the ball around. Unfortunately in this game after Mahomes threw an INT, he accidentally injured KC WR Rashee Rice. Rice suffered what might be a torn ACL and is out for a while. KC TE Travis Kelce had a good game with 7receptions for 89yds. In the 2nd half the KC OFF limited LAC from getting back on the field and used ball control to wind down the clock. It was a defensive struggle for both sides but KC won 17-10 with a td drive in the 4th qtr. LW, NO was in a struggle @ATL. This game went back and forth but the NO DEF didn’t allow an OFF td from ATL. ATL scored their tds on a fumble recovery and a PICK6 from the hands of NO QB Derek Carr. NO took the lead with 1:00 in the game 24-23 with a nice td drive and an Alvin Kamara 1yd run. But what should have been the end of the game, on the ensuing drive by ATL, the NO DEF was charged with a pass interference call which set up ATL for a game winning fg. ATL K Koo came in and kicked a 58 yd fg with :02 left for the ATL win 26-24. I had liked NO+2 ½ in this game to win outright because they were on a bounceback from their loss @HOME vs PHILLY. NO gave that game away and in this game, the DEF did their job but the OFF gave it away. L5 NO vs KC, NO 2-3 SU but 3-1-1 ATS. NO 11-13-1 ATS on MNF. NO 2-8-1 ATS L11 on MNF. NO 2-4-1 ATS AWAY on MNF. NO 16-7 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NO 36-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 33-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 28-13 ATS L41 as a ROAD DOG. NO 7-9 ATS after ATL. NO 6-12 ATS before TB. KC 6-4-1 ATS L11 on MNF. KC 8-7 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. KC 12-5 ATS after LAC. KC 10-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. KC 38-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 28-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 15-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts off DIV gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 13-2 ATS after DIV gm vs .500>opp. NO S Tyrann Mathieu & TE Taysom Hill are both questionable for this game with injuries which creates a big hole on both sides of the ball for NO. They are certainly playmakers and NO is a better team with both of them in the lineup. Mahomes is starting to find a rhythm and that is very dangerous for opposing teams. The DEF for KC really stepped up against LAC and they are also clamping down on teams after a slow start. KC #15 TOT DEF w/ #8 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF. KC is adjusting to life without CB L’Jarius Sneed who left for bigger money. But with DC Steve Spagnuola, KC seems to always dial up the right formula for stopping opposing OFFs. The key on DEF for KC is to stop the NO run completely and putting it all on the shoulders of Derek Carr. He threw a PICK6 vs ATL. How many INTS will he have vs KC? I would say at least 2INTs. KC is a much better than ATL even tough their game a few weeks ago on MNF went down to the wire. But that game was a combination of suspect play calling by ATL on OFF and a KC DEF that was stopping ATL dead cold. NO has beaten CAR @DAL and lost to PHILLY & @ATL. NO beating DAL was a surprise but looking back DAL is not that good. PHILLY has problems and NO should have won that game too. But KC finds a way to win no matter what. I like KC winning here by at least a td. Look for Carr to have some turnovers under the lights at KC.
THE PICK: KC-5 ½