2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 18 (ATS)   

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 4^th, 2025 4:30pm

Cleveland Browns (3-13), (4-12) ATS, (1-7) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (11-5), (10-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS                     CLEV+17 ½  

LW on Christmas night, it was all BALT-3 @HOU. It was more MEN vs boys because all HOU could muster was a safety vs BALT. HOU could not even get set up for a fg as BALT had their way winning 31-2. BALT rushed for a combined 251yds & 2tds on 43carries. It was the Henry-Jackson show & Jackson even threw 2tds in the rout. The BALT DEF got into the act too sacking HOU QB CJ Stroud 5x, 1INT & limiting the HOU run game to a combined 58yds. It was total team effort on the part of BALT. LW, I liked MIA-6 @CLEV because for once I felt that MIA would come through even with Tyler Huntley as their QB. CLEV QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson did his best as usual but he is just not that good. He had 1INT & 1 lost fumble which fortunately for CLEV, MIA didn’t turn into points. But, MIA did what they needed to do and scored 2tds in the 2^nd half to win 20-3. CLEV had their chances in this game but the MIA DEF was determined to turn CLEV away. L17 CLEV @BALT, CLEV 4-13 SU but 9-8 ATS. L33 CLEV vs BALT, CLEV 8-25 SU & 13-20 ATS. L30 CLEV vs BALT, ROAD 19-11 ATS. CLEV 1-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. CLEV 0-5 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CLEV 1-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CLEV 11-11-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. CLEV 5-16-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 4-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG 7>pts. CLEV 0-11 ATS as a DOG >5pts after scoring 10<pts. CLEV 1-13-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-16-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. BALT 1-4 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. BALT 1-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BALT 1-3 ATS @HOME in JAN. BALT 8-16-2 ATS after allowing <10pts. BALT 6-20 ATS as a div HOME FAV 4>pts. BALT 2-8 ATS as a div HOME FAV 8>pts. BALT 15-8 ATS as a FAV >1pt w/rest. BALT 4-12 ATS as a HOME FAV >10pts vs .400<opp. BALT 17-35-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 2-11 ATS as a FAV >4pts off DD ATS win. BALT needs a win here to claim the AFC NORTH crown and the #3 seed for the AFC playoffs. If they lose and PITT wins, then PITT gets the crown and BALT drops to a possible #6 seed. These two teams met in week 8 @CLEV with CLEV surprising BALT, 29-24. I liked CLEV+9 in that game but BALT had many chances to win this game and blew them. CLEV QB Jameis Winston led a last minute drive that culminated in a td. During that drive, BALT DB Kyle Hamilton dropped a sure INT that would have sealed the victory for BALT. So, there is a little revenge here for BALT to make sure that CLEV understands that the earlier game was just a fluke. Also, BALT would like to have a higher seed and the AFC NORTH crown with a HOME playoff game during wildcard weekend. CLEV is just plain terrible and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson @QB, CLEV is going nowhere. He has 0tds & 6INTS this season in 4games of action. But the BIG question is what to do with QB Deshaun Watson when he is healthy and comes back next season? CLEV is stuck with him because they gave him that guaranteed contract. There are many other questions to be asked and hopefully answered in the off-season for CLEV as they need to do better on the field. They also need a capable backup QB in case Watson goes down with an injury. Deshaun Watson has not played a full season in the 3seasons that he has been with CLEV. In 2022 he was suspended the first 11games and the last two seasons he was injured. I like BALT in this game because they have something valuable to play for and that is the AFC NORTH crown and a HOME game in the playoffs. Look for BALT RB Derrick Henry to get limited touches to preserve him for the playoff run. BALT #2 RUSH OFF vs CLEV #19 RUSH DEF. If the score is a blowout, look for BALT to take QB Lamar Jackson out and replace him with Josh Johnson. I like BALT winning here and the DEF creating some turnovers in a blowout win. I am not crazy about so many points but CLEV is just awful and has nothing to play for. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: BALT-17 ½  

Saturday January 4^th, 2025 8:30pm 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), (10-6) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (7-1) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), (10-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (5-2) ATS                    PITT+1 ½  

LW, CINNCY @HOME needed OT to beat DEN, 30-24. This game was a back and forth affair with DEN QB Bo Nix throwing a 25yd td pass on a 4^th & 1 from the CINNCY 25yd line with :08 to play to tie the game up at 24. In OT, DEN played not lose and CINNCY missed a fg but later connected on a td for the 30-24 win. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow passed for 39/49 for 412yds, 3tds & 0INts. However, Burrow was sacked 7x. On Christmas Day, PITT blew another game for their 3^rd loss in a row. This time it was @HOME to KC, 29-10. PITT QB Russell Wilson had another so-so game but the PITT running game was able to amass 202yds rushing &1td on 31carries. But when KC opened up a 13-0 1^st qtr lead, PITT had to play catchup as KC made stops when they needed them and rolled to victory. The PITT DEF did not create any turnovers and was unable to sack KC QB Pat Mahomes. L17 CINNCY @PITT, CINNCY 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS. L35 CINNCY vs PITT, CINNCY 12-22-1 ATS. L28 CINNCY vs PITT, FAV 14-13-1 ATS. L25 CINNCY vs PITT, CINNCY 7-18 SU & 10-15 ATS. CINNCY 20-8 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 3-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. CINNCY 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. CINNCY 2-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. CINNCY 4-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. CINNCY 13-7 ATS L20 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 2-7 ATS AWAY vs >.600div opp. CINNCY 2-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss. CINNCY 10-10-1 ATS L21 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 14-4 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. PITT 14-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PITT 6-0 ATS vs AFC NORTH in JAN. PITT 4-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. PITT 2-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. PITT 24-8 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 11-2-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp w/revenge. Both of these teams have something to play for. CINNCY needs a win in this game to even be considered for the playoffs. Even with a CINNCY win here, MIA & DEN need to lose on SUN for CINNCY to advance. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has been playing lights out this whole season with 42tds & only 8INTs. CINNCY #8 TOT OFF w/ #1 PASS OFF. However, it’s been the DEF for CINNCY that has been the letdown here. CINNCY #27 TOT DEF w/#21 RUSH DEF & #24 PASS DEF. There are games that CINNCY needed some stops but couldn’t get them from the DEF. That is why they are where they are right now. Hopefully in the off-season areas on DEF are addressed so that CINNCY can get off to a strong start and not have to worry about other teams hindering their path to the playoffs. For PITT, they are in the playoffs but their seed is still uncertain. They are not winning the AFC NORTH and if they lose to CINNCY & LAC wins, PITT drops to the #6 seed. PITT would then travel to BALT in the wild card round. PITT is on a 3game losing streak and have not looked good in any of those games. PITT has lost to @PHILLY, @BALT & vs KC. In these games, PITT QB Russell Wilson has had 3tds, 2INTs & 3lost fumbles, not good. He has been the major cause of the losses whether you want to say so or not. These two teams met in week 13 @CINNCY with PITT QB Russell Wilson out dueling QB Joe Burrow and building a 44-31 lead before CINNCY scored a dummy td with 2:39 left to make the final score PITT 44-38. PITT really has nothing to play for and probably doesn’t want any of their stars injured but with the loss and an LAC win, they could be on the road to BALT next week. As for CINNCY, this is revenge for the game in week 14 and Burrow is having a monster season. I like the hot hand of Burrow in another shootout as CINNCY wins by a fg.     

THE PICK: CINNCY-1 ½  

Sunday January 5^th, 2025 1:00pm

Carolina Panthers (4-12), (7-9) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (8-8), (7-9) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (3-5) ATS                                     CAR+8

LW, I thought CAR+8 would just play close @TB. I didn’t think they would win because TB was on a bounceback and playing for something. But it was a complete let down by CAR after the score was 7-7 in the 1^st qtr. TB 2tds & 2fgs t take a 27-7 lead and the game was really over. CAR would score a td before the 2^nd qtr was over but TB would then score another 3tds in the 2^nd half to win the game in blowout fashion 48-14. The DEF for CAR couldn’t stop anything that TB was throwing and the only positive for CAR is that they didn’t turn the ball over. LW, ATL+4 was playing @WASH on SNF. If ATL was playing a team that didn’t need the win as WASH did, I probably would have picked ATL. But with WASH @HOME and also needing the game, I liked WASH. ATL had a 17-7 halftime lead but couldn’t hold it in the 2^nd half. WASH would score 2tds & 1fg to make it WASH 24-17 before ATL got a late drive to score a td on a 4^th down to send the game to OT. ATL had a chance to win the game in regulation but missed a 56yd fg at the buzzer. In OT WASH won the coin toss and never relinquished the ball, scoring a td on a 12play drive to win 30-24. WR Drake London was the star for ATL making some clutch catches and catching 7passes for 106yds in the loss. L17 CAR @ATL, CAR 5-12 SU & 6-11 ATS. L27 CAR vs ATL, HOME 15-12 ATS. L25 CAR vs ATL, DOG 15-10 ATS. CAR 12-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CAR 1-5 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CAR 1-5 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. CAR 1-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. CAR 14-11 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 13-11 ATS as a div DOG w/revenge. CAR 12-7 ATS after TB. CAR 12-15 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 13-10-1 ATS off div gm vs .500>opp. CAR 15-6-1 ATS off DD SU conf ROAD loss. CAR 3-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 6-20 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 11-17-1 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. ATL 1-3 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. ATL 2-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. ATL 1-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. ATL 5-15-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 1-11-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. ATL 6-17-1 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL needs a win culminating with a TB loss to get into the playoffs. They almost pulled off a win LW but they were playing a team that is the same talent wise and a team that needed the win too. ATL should never have signed Cousins and he will not be with the team in 2025. Penix has showed great signs in the 2games that he has played but in all fairness they were vs NYG & @WASH. Now, if he had beaten KC, PHILLY or DET than we have a definite star in the making. Going forward, ATL needs guys on DEF that don’t disappear from time to time during games. Their DEF was non-existent in games that ATL needed to win. It also didn’t help that Cousins cost ATL wins too. He shoud have been pulled earlier and maybe ATL wouldn’t be in this playoff scenario. ATL TE Kyle Pitts has a 50-50 shot at being with the team next season due to his inconsistencies with catching the ball, blocking, etc. He is very talented but has to focus more. CAR has looked better towards the end of the season but they are still a bad team. They have found ways to lose because they are lacking guys who can make stops on DEF and give the ball back to the OFF. The DEF has to be addressed in the off-season for CAR if they want to move forward. CAR #32 TOT DEF w/#32 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. You cannot win many games when you are last in the NFL on DEF. Teams will find many ways to score on you. These two teams met in week 6 @ CAR with ATL winning 38-20. Consdering that ATL needs this game to be even considered for the playoffs and CAR players probably don’t want to get injured in a game that means absolutely nothing, I like ATL to run all day on CAR with RBs Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier. In the week 6 meeting, these two RBs combined for 200yds rushing & 3tds on 33 carries. I see more of the same here as ATL rolls right over CAR. Lay the points here.     

THE PICK: ATL-8

Washington Commanders (11-5), (10-6) ATS, (4-3) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (7-9), (7-9) ATS, (2-6) HOME, (2-6) ATS                DAL+3

LW, I liked DAL +9 ½ @PHILLY just to keep it close and maybe play better because there was also a revenge factor working for DAL. PHILLY would have none of that and even though PHILLY’s 2^nd string QB was knocked out, their 3^rd string QB filled in nicely in a 41-7 drudging. DAL QB Cooper Rush had a bad day with 2INTs, including a PICK6 and there were 2lost fumbles by RB Rico Dowdle & WR Jake Ferguson. A lot of errors by DAL turned into 24pts for PHILLY. LW, WASH was in a dogfight @HOME vs ATL on SNF. Both teams needed the win to stay relevant for the playoffs and WASH dug themselves a hole early 17-7. I liked WASH-4 but it wasn’t looking good. But WASH then clamped down their DEF and WAS scored 17straight points before ATL scored a td with 1:19 to tie the game at 24. ATL got the ball back but missed a 56yd fg that would have won it for ATL. In OT, WASH won the coin toss and marched down the field and WASH QB Jayden Daniels hit TE Zach Ertz in the endzone for the 30-24 OT win. L17 WASH @DAL, WASH 6-11 SU & 8-9 ATS. L31 WASH vs DAL, WASH 15-16 ATS. L31 WASH vs DAL, DOG 16-14 ATS 1PICK’EM. L21 WASH vs DAL, ROAD 12-9 ATS. WASH 8-6 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 2-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. WASH 2-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. WASH 3-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. DAL 13-12-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. DAL 12-8 ATS after PHILLY. DAL 2-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. DAL 0-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. DAL 0-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. DAL 8-12 ATS @HOMe off DD ATS loss. DAL 2-12 ATS off SU div loss vs opp off SU win. DAL 2-7 ATS as a HOE DOG after allowing 35>pts. DAL 9-28-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 3-6 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss vs .500>opp. DAL 1-5 ATS off SU div loss vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 0-5 ATS as a DOG after allowing 35>pts. DAL 12-14 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. WASH has nothing to play for except playoff positioning. Currently WASH is #6 & GB is #7. If WASH wins with a GB loss, WASH & GB keep their playoff spots. If WASH loses and GB wins, they change spots. There is a possibility that DAL could win this game because they have nothing to lose and are still playing for jobs. WASH has had a nice season but, their problem is that they have not beaten anyone good. They have lost to @TB, @BALT, vs PITT, @PHILLY, all playoff teams. They beat PHILLY 2weeks ago because they knocked out PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts. If Hurts plays that game, there is no way WASH wins. The WASH DEF is not as good as people think. WASH #9 TOT DEF w/#28 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. It is deceiving because they have beaten a lot of bad teams. The proof will be in the pudding when next season WASH has a much tougher schedule. As for DAL, they are stuck with a couple of BIG contracts and they need some more players to fill some holes on OFF & DEF. During the season, some players have already hinted that they are leaving. Who knows if DAL HC Mike McCarthy will be around next season? QB Cooper Rush has looked good in his replacement of the injured Dak Prescott so he may want to look elsewhere as well. WASH needed a comeback and OT to beat ATL in WASH with a rookie QB who was playing his 2nd game in his rookie season. WASH cannot afford an injury to its QB Jayden Daniels. Too many issues for WASH, I like DAL here.   

THE PICK: DAL+3

Chicago Bears (4-12), (8-7-1) ATS, (0-7) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (11-5), (9-7) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (5-3) ATS                               CHI+9

LW, CHI+3 ½ was in a dogfight @HOME on TNF with SEA. I liked SEA but who knew that this game would just be a few fgs of OFF and that’s it? CHI QB Caleb Williams was sacked 7x and actually had a chance t win the game but threw an INT on a 4^th & 10 play with :20 to go to seal the 6-3 victory for SEA. SEA needed the win to stay relevant for the playoffs but got knocked out with e win by LAR on Saturday night. LW, GB played @MINN. I liked MINN-1 in this game and MINN stormed out to a 20-3 3^rd qtr lead and then a 27-10 lead before GB made it interesting. GB scored 2tds in the 4^th qtr but get no closer in a MINN 27-25 win. It was too little too late for GB who dug themselves a BIG hole they couldn’t get out of. MINN had played lax DEF after they built up their lead. GB intercepted MINN QB Sam Darnold 1x but turned it into 7pts. L17 CHI @ GB, CHI 3-14 SU & 5-12 ATS. L27 CHI vs GB, CHI 6-21 ATS. L28 CHI vs GB, ROAD 15-13 ATS. CHI 0-5 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. CHI 0-5 ATS as a DOG in JAN. CHI 0-3 ATS AWAY in JAN. CHI 9-17-1 ATS w/rest. CHI 6-9 ATS w/rest off SU loss. GB 10-12-1 ATS after MINN. GB 4-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. GB 4-2 ATS as a FAV in JAN. GB 3-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. GB 27-10 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB has nothing to play for except playoff positioning. Currently WASH is #6 & GB is #7. If WASH wins with a GB loss, WASH & GB keep their playoff spots. If WASH loses and GB wins, they change spots. That said, does GB play QB Jordan Love the whole game or any part of this game, risking injury? GB has had a good season, not a great one. They have lost 2x to MINN & 2x to DET. They have also lost 1x to PHILLY which tells the tale of their 5losses. Outside of the NFC NORTH, GB has played very well. In week 11 @CHI, GB barely beat CHI 20-19. This was a game that CHI was winning 10-7, then 13-7, then GB was leading 14-13 and then CHI up 19-14 and then GB scored a td with 2:59 to play and won 20-19. Also in that game, CHI rushed for a combined 179yds & 2tds on 34carries. Right now GB has a lot of guys questionable and CB Jaire Alexander is done for the season. Why would GB risk more injuries? CHI has nothing to play for except pride. CHI QB Caleb Williams has been sacked an insane 67x. CHI is on a 10game losing streak. After the season the O-LINE must be addressed. CHI needs some more players on DEF and a couple of more receivers. Plus, they could use a QB coach to mentor Williams. I actually see GB pulling their starters because they do not want to risk injury. GB RB Josh Jacobs has a wrist injury and probably would not want to worsen it so he may be a scratch. Considering that GB has nothing to gain and CHI would like to end the season on a positive note, I like CHI with the points. I can’t see a blowout here and if GB wins it will be a closer game. CHI may be pumped because they have nothing to lose and GB may be looking ahead.  

THE PICK: CHI+9

Houston Texans (9-7), (5-9-2) ATS, (4-4) AWAY, (3-4-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-13), (2-14) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (0-7) ATS                             TENN+1   

LW on Christmas Day, HOU could only muster a safety against the BIG BAD Ravens. It was total domination by BALT @HOU. If BALT wanted, they probably could have scored 50points. That’s how bad HOU played. BALT combined to rush for 251yds &2tds on 43carries. BALT RB Derrick Henry rushed for 147yds & 1td on 27carries. This game was BALT 17-2 at the half on the way to a BALT 31-2 rout. HOU QB CJ Stroud was sacked 5x while BALT QB Lamar Jackson was only sacked 1x. LW, TENN was a DOG +1 @JAGS. I liked the JAGS because Mac Jones is a better QB than Mason Rudolph. TENN was trailing 13-3 at the half and actually crept back into it with a td to make the score 13-10 but JAGS got a td and all TENN could muster was a fg to make the final score JAGS 20-13. TENN RB Tyjae Spears rushed for 95yds on 20carries but suffered a concussion and left the game. TENN RB Tony Pollard was out with an injury and did not play. L17 HOU @TENN, HOU 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS. L29 HOU vs TENN, HOU 20-9 ATS. L35 HOU vs TENN, HOME 19-16 ATS. L15 HOU vs TENN, HOU 9-6 ATS. HOU 7-9-2 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 4-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. HOU 2-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. HOU 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. HOU 8-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs div. HOU 8-9-1 ATS w/rest. HOU 7-5-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. HOU 15-10-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 11-12-1 ATS L24 after DD ATS loss. TENN 10-9-2 ATS after JAGS. TENN 2-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. TENN 1-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. TENN 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. TENN 3-9 ATS off BB SU losses vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN 9-16 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. HOU has certainly taken steps backwards since last season. You could blame it on injuries but without a doubt HOU QB CJ Stroud has himself regressed in the QB position. Maybe it’s from stiffer competition but he has not looked sharp in many games this season. If HOU is to move forward, they need to address that as #1 in the off-season. HOU is locked in to their playoff position as the #4 seed. They are slated to play the #5 seed which is yet to be determined until after the weekend. HOU will be @HOME but that doesn’t guarantee they will have the advantage. HOU did not look good at all in their game vs BALT an have not looked good in many games this season. Davis Mills will probably get the start for HOU while CJ Stroud rests. Why chance Stroud getting hurt in a game that means nothing? But HC DeMeco Ryans probably wants the team to play better and get on a roll that will transfer to the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if you see starters out there for HOU until they have a comfortable lead over TENN. For TENN, they need to address a lot of things in the off-season. Is Will Levis the guy @QB? The O-LINE needs addressing as well because 50 QB sacks is a lot. The OFF certainly needs to get better because the DEF for TENN spent way too much time out on the field and at times got worn down. The DEF is a few guys away from being lethal. They have 11INTs & 31sacks which isn’t bad but in crucial situations need to make stops. In week 12 @HOU, TENN surprised HOU to win 32-27. TENN was BIG DOG @+8 ½ . I liked TENN in that game because I thought HOU was ripe for the pickings and they were. But here this week, like HOU because it is revenge and HOU needs to get back in that frame of mind that will get them winning at least one game in the playoffs. The DEF for HOU has to show that they can at least shut down TENN. TENN RB Tyjae Spears is doubtful for this game because of the concussion he sustained vs JAGS. TENN RB Tony Pollard is questionable for this game as of WED. Without either of these two RBs in the lineup for TENN it will be tough for Mason Rudolph or Will Levis to carry the load.   

THE PICK: HOU-1

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12), (8-7-1) ATS, (1-7) AWAY, (3-4-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (7-9), (7-8-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS                 JAGS+5

LW, INDY needed the game @NYG just to stay in the playoff conversation. I liked NYG+8 because I didn’t think INDY was that much better than NYG even though the records may say differently. INDY QB Anthony Richardson was a scratch because of his hip and Joe Flacco started. Well, NYG came to play and Flacco had 2INTs & 1lost fumble which luckily for INDY NYG only turned it into 3pts. But the INDY DEF couldn’t stop the NYG OFF and gave up 45pts. Plus, they did not sack NYG QB Drew Lock 1x or create any turnovers. Lock picked the INDY DEF apart for 309yds & 4tds. The only bright spot for INDY was that RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 125yds & 2tds on 32 carries in the 45-33 loss. LW, I liked JAGS -1 @HOME vs TENN because QB Mac Jones is better than anyone that TENN puts on the field for QB. JAGS did what they needed to do and did not turn the ball over while QB Mac Jones had a decent day throwing 15/22 for 174yds & 2tds. The running game got going too for 122yds on 33carries. JAGS had a 13-3 halftime lead and coasted to a 20-13 win. L17 JAGS @INDY, JAGS 5-12 SU but 10-5-2 ATS. L35 JAGS v INDY, ROAD 16-17-2 ATS. L24 JAGS vs INDY, JAGS 14-8-2 ATS. L30 JAGS vs INDY, FAV 16-11-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. JAGS 11-7 ATS after TENN. JAGS 2-2-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. JAGS 1-1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. JAGS 1-2-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. JAGS 6-20 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 5-1 ATS L6 off SU div HOME win. INDY 0-4-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. INDY 0-3-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. INDY 0-3-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in JAN. INDY 9-1 ATS as a FAV 3>pts after allowing 35>pts. INDY 13-3 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. INDY 13-9-1 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. INDY 3-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs conf opp. INDY 22-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 19-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 18-6-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000opp. INDY 15-1-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU win. There is absolutely nothing to play for either of these teams. INDY was eliminated from the playoffs and JAGS have been out of it since SEPT. Plus, it doesn’t matter what spot JAGS end up in the 2025 draft because they are not picking a QB. As for INDY, they could use some players on DEF. INDY #29 TOT DEF w/#26 RUSH & #26 PASS DEF. INDY can’t stop the run at all. JAGS are not that good on DEF either. JAGS #31 TOT DEF. They have had problems making stops on DEF all season when they needed them most. Miscommunications, missed assignments, you name it. But JAGS have some OFF weapons that can put up some points. Anyway, I like JAGS here because of that reason and I don’t see any reason to play QB Anthony Richardson who is questionable for this game with his hip and risk further injury. Leave Flacco in there and let the chips fall where they may. These two teams met in wk 5 with JAGS winning a squeaker, 37-34. In that game, Flacco was the QB for INDY and almost brought INDY back from trailing 34-20 in the 4^th qtr to tie it at 34 before JAGS kicked a fg to win 37-34 with :17 left. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor did not play in that game as well but Trevor Lawrence was the QB for JAGS. I don’t see any revenge factor here as JAGS should win the game by a fg to end both of these teams very disappointing seasons.     

THE PICK: JAGS+5

Buffalo Bills (13-3), (11-5) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (3-13), (6-9-1) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (2-4-1) ATS                             NE+3

LW, I liked NYJ+9 ½ @BUFF just to keep it close. I guess no one told NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers. He should have worn a BUFF jersey instead of a NYJ jersey. He made mistake after mistake that helped BUFF get a 40-0 lead. Believe it or not this game was manageable at halftime with BUFF only leading 12-0. But Rodgers helped BUFF and BUFF capitalized. In the 2^nd half, BUFF scored tds on 4straight possessions. BUFF was dominant on both sides of the ball and won the game 40-14. LW on Saturday, NE was +5 @HOME vs LAC. LAC had something to prove and NE was slammed 40-7. LAC stormed out to a 17-0 lead before NE scored their only points and then LAC scored another 23straight points to win 40-7. It was a total domination game by LAC. The DEF for NE could not stop LAC QB Justin Hebert who threw for 3tds & 0turnovers. Also, the NE DEF did not sack Herbert 1x. L17 BUFF @NE, BUFF 5-12 SU but 9-7-1 ATS. L35 BUFF vs NE, BUFF 10-25 SU & 13-20-2 ATS. BUFF 8-7-2 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 4-0 ATS vs FAC EAST in JAN. BUFF 4-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. BUFF 1-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. BUFF 24-18 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 18-21-1 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 11-8 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 10-14-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 1-8 ATS L9 vs opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. NE 14-8-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NE 1-4 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NE 2-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. NE 0-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NE 8-12-2 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. NE 17-4 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 19-17-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 10-3-1 ATS w/revenge vs conf opp off SUATS win. NE 12-2 ATS as a DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. NE 16-5 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 15-3 ATS off DD SU HOME loss. NE 3-13-1 ATS as a DOG 4<pts. BUFF has already clinched the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Look for them to rest almost all their starters and go with Mitch Trubisky @QB. He stinks pretty bad and in mop up duty this season he has 4/5 passing for 78yds, 1td & 0INTs. This is his 1^st start since 2023 when he went 0-2 in starts for PITT. BUFF knows that the playoff road will travel through KC. BUFF has the edge over KC during the regular season but can’t seem to get past KC in the playoffs. However, if those two teams meet in the playoffs, it will be in the AFC Championship game. But, that is a month off. Anyway, BUFF QB Josh Allen has certainly improved himself this season with his INTS going from a career high of 18 in 2023 to 6INTs this season. Also incredibly, he was only sacked 14x all season. NE has a host of problems. They need help on the O-LINE where NE QBs were sacked a total of 51x so far this season. NE also needs some passing targets for QB Drake Maye. NE also needs guys on DEF that can make a difference. NE #23 TOT DEF will not get your team to a winning record in the NFL. Maye has shown a lot of potential on this bad team. Imagine if he had the pieces around him and the DEF was better? NE has a lot of work to do in the off-season. BUFF has to see who they will be playing in the 1^st week of the playoffs. But this week, they will be giving their starters a rest and letting the backups compete. Because of this, I like NE to win the game outright. These two teams met a coupe of weeks ago in BUFF with NE giving BUFF a run for their money before succumbing to defeat, 24-21. In that game NE bolted out to 14-0 lead before BUFF scored 24 straight points. NE added a dummy td at the end to make the final score close. But, this week, NE will be playing their hearts out because their draft spot doesn’t matter because they will not be looking to draft a QB.       

THE PICK: NE+3

New York Giants (3-13), (4-12) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), (10-6) ATS, (7-1) HOME, (4-4) ATS                                 NYG+3 ½  

LW, NYG had a nice win @HOME over INDY. I liked NYG+8 whether INDY QB Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco played. Richardson was out with his hip so, Flacco played. NYG stormed out to a 21-6 2^nd qtr lead but INDY tried to comeback at so many different times in this game. But, NYG never relinquished the lead and some NYG players had some career games against a suspect INDY DEF. INDY needed this game to stay in the playoff picture but played like it didn’t matter. NYG WR Malik Nabers had a great game catching 7passes for 171yds & 2tds. NYG QB Drew Lock passed for 17/23, 309yds, 4tds & 0turnovers and he was sacked 0x, his best day as a Pro. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 125yds & 2tds on 32carries. In the end, the NYG OFF was too much for INDY and NYG won 45-33. LW, I had liked DAL +9 ½ @PHILLY because after the DAL DEF showed up vs TB, I figured that for a division rival, DAL would be pumped and could be ready to knock PHILLY from the #2 seed. It didn’t happen as DAL QB Cooper Rush had an awful day and PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley managed to run over the DAL DEF like they weren’t there for 167yds on 31carries. PHILLY QB Kenny Pickett who managed to regroup after his bad showing vs WASH was knocked out with a hip injury and rookie QB Tanner McKee came in. He looked good and delivered 2tds & 0turnovers in the 41-7 rout of DAL. With the win, PHILLY has captured the #2seed. L17 NYG @PHILLY, NYG 4-13 SU but 10-6-1 ATS. L35 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 22-12-1 ATS. L35 NYG vs PHILLY, ROAD 21-13-1 ATS. NYG 3-2 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYG 3-1 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. NYG 1-1 ATS AWAY in JAN. NYG 4-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. NYG 1-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG 9<pts w/revenge vs opp off SU win. NYG 3-10 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs opp off SU win. NYG 5-0 ATS L5 off DD ATS win. PHILLY 9-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 1-4 ATS vs NFC EAST in JAN. PHILLY 0-4 ATS @HOME in JAN. PHILLY 1-3 ATS as a FAV in JAN. PHILLY 6-11 ATS after DAL. PHILLY 11-6 ATS off SU win 14>pts vs div opp. PHILLY 11-1 ATS as a FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 3-9 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY is locked into the #2 NFC seed, so they have absolutely nothing to play for. Also, PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley is not playing in this game even though he may have wanted to break the rushing record against his old team. The same will probably be for QB Jalen Hurts who is coming off a concussion and will be nice and rested for whomever PHILLY plays in the wild card weekend. PHILLY will probably rest more starters to give them a rest for the deep run in the playoffs that PHILLY will likely go on. As for NYG, they have nothing to lose in this game because everyone knows that they need a QB for next season. But, NYG players are still playing for jobs and QB Drew Lock is also playing for a job, come next season. With PHILLY resting their starters and NYG looking at this game as maybe their SuperBowl, I give NYG a shot at winning this game outright. The NYG DEF will not see stars playing for PHILLY, only backups and backups are not well practiced with timing and routes. This is where the NYG DEF can create some turnovers and found points. I like NYG here with the points as NYG will be playing hard and PHILLY will be resting starters.   

THE PICK: NYG+3 ½

New Orleans Saints (5-11), (6-10) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7), (10-6) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (5-3) ATS                NO+13 ½  

LW, NO was +1 @HOME vs LV. I liked LV because I have no faith in NO QB Spencer Rattler. He has not shown good accuracy for connecting with his receivers. He is at 55.9% for the season. Anyway, LV ran all over NO for 156yds on 38carries which gave LV QB Aidan O’Connell enough of a breather to throw 2tds and beat NO 25-10. This game was LV 13-10 at the half and NO couldn’t get any scores in the 2^nd half while LV kicked 2fgs and scored 1td. LW, TB was on a bounceback after their loss @DAL. I liked CAR +8 @TB just to keep it close because CAR has been playing competitive ball in the last month. But TB would have none of that. TB led 10-7 in the 1^st qtr and increased their lead to 27-14 by the half. But in the 2^nd half TB tightened up their DEF and did not allow a pt by CAR while the OFF scored 3tds to put the game completely out of reach 48-14. TB QB Baker Mayfield was unstoppable with 27/32 passing for 359yds, 5tds & 0turnovers. He was only sacked 2x. L17 NO @TB, NO 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS. L17 NO vs TB, NO 10-7 SU & 11-6 ATS. L23 NO vs TB, HOME 10-13 ATS. L15 NO vs TB, NO 10-5 ATS. NO 4-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. NO 3-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. NO 1-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NO 16-2 ATS as a div DOG 3>pts. NO 17-7 ATS AWAY after an SUATS loss. NO 17-5 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. TB 9-14-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TB 4-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. TB 4-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in JAN. TB 3-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. TB 8-10-1 ATS after CAR. TB 12-21-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 4-8-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV 10>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. TB only needs a win or a tie, or an ATL loss to lock up the NFC SOUTH. But TB has played down after they have won some important games. There have been major inconsistencies in the play of TB this season and that’s why it has come down to the last game of the season for them. TB has beaten DET, PHILLY, LAC but have lost to ATL (2x), DEN, BALT, KC, SF & DAL. Had TB won just one f those games, they wouldn’t need a win in week 18 to be in the playoffs. Just when you think TB may go on a run of wins, they lose or just barely play. They were the FAV @DAL a couple of weeks ago after beating @LAC, 40-17. In the game @DAL, TB looked confused and couldn’t get their OFF in sync. TB needs to come out strong here and score like they did vs CAR LW. For NO, the season started out well with BIG victories vs CAR & @DAL. But then it fell apart as NO suffered a 6game losing streak & HC Dennis Allen was fired. Darren Rizzi who was the special teams coordinator was hired as interim HC. He is 3-4 with no guarantees for next season. But NO has suffered a lot of injuries and doesn’t have capable backups. Spencer Rattler is the NO QB due to a hand injury to Derek Carr and he hasn’t been that impressive. QB/TE/RB Taysom Hill has been out too with injuries. TB #5 RUSH DEF vs NO #14 RUSH OFF. NO would probably like to run the ball to take some pressure off of Rattler so he doesn’t feel like he has to win the game by himself but, TB will be waiting. TB has something to play for. These two teams played in week 6 @NO with TB winning 51-27. In that game, NO was leading 27-24 at halftime but couldn’t score another point in the 2^nd half while TB scored 4tds in the eventual rout. Also noted in that game, TB rushed for a combined 277yds & 2tds on 35 carries led by RB Sean Tucker’s 136yds. TB QB Baker Mayfield had 4tds but 3INTs & NO QB Spencer Rattler had 1td & 2INTs. It was game full of errors where both teams capitalized on each teams errors but in the end TB was just the stronger team. TB has a lot to play for here as ATL is the FAV in their game vs CAR. I like TB to put up BIG numbers here and win the NFC SOUTH. NO #30 RUSH DEF. Look for TB to run wild and make the NO secondary work. Lay the points here as NO has already checked out.    

THE PICK: TB-13 ½

Sunday January 5^th, 2025 4:00pm

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), (7-8-1) ATS, (7-1) AWAY, (4-3-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (9-7), (10-6) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (5-2) ATS                  KC+11  

On Wed Christmas Day, KC did what they had to do @PITT. I liked KC -2 ½ @PITT because KC was still playing for something & PITT is reeling downward. KC dominated this game with 5sacks of PITT QB Russell Wilson & 1INT. KC QB Pat Mahomes picked apart the PITT DEF & threw for 29/38 for 320yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. He also spread the ball around to 8different receivers. The running game did what they had to do for a total of 69yds. The PITT DEF sacked Mahomes 0x. KC stormed out to a 13-0 1^st qtr lead and never looked back. KC won the game 29-10. LW on Saturday night, DEN was up against a team that was also playing for something, CINNCY. This game was a back and forth affair and DEN QB Bo Nix showed the world that he is right for the NFL. Unfortunately, DEN was playing vs CINNCY QB Joe Burrow who plays every game like it’s his last game. This game went back and forth with scoring but Bo Nix threw a td pass on 4^th & 1 at the CINNCY 25yd line with :08 left to tie the game at 24 and send it to OT. DEN would be in the playoffs with win or a tie but, DEN played not to lose in OT. Well, CINNCY missed a fg but on their 2^nd chance didn’t take a fg & instead Burrow threw a td pass to WR Tee Higgins that won the game for CINNCY 30-24. The DEN DEF sacked CINNCY QB Joe Burrow 7x but Burrow did not turn the ball over. Burrow threw for 412yds. L12 KC @DEN, KC 8-4 SU & 6-6 ATS. L35 KC vs DEN, ROAD 20-15 ATS. L25 KC vs DEN, DOG 14-11 ATS. L31 KC vs DEN, KC 14-17 ATS. L18 KC vs DEN, KC 17-1 SU & 10-8 ATS. KC 13-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. KC 2-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. KC 2-3 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. KC 1-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. KC 13-3 ATS as a DOG 3>pts. KC 12-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 3>pts. KC 9-4 ATS AWAY off BB SUATS wins. KC 23-9-2 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 11-6 ATS vs .500> div opp. DEN 0-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DEN 4-2 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. DEN 3-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. DEN 4-4 ATS since 2007 off SU OT loss. KC is not playing for anything in this game. They are locked in at the #1seed in the AFC. Carson Wentz will start for KC @QB. DEN needs to win this game to still have a shot at the playoffs. But their DEF has been giving up a lot of yards and points in the last 4weeks. Yes, DEN didn’t give up a lot of points vs INDY but, INDY beat themselves in this game. One thing about Carson Wentz, he plays to win. He was the starter for LAR in week 18 last season as LAR was locked in for the playoffs as was SF. But, he played his heart out and won the game outright for LAR 21-20. Each team had nothing to play for and Sam Darnold was the QB for SF. Anyway, DEN needs this game to be considered for the playoffs. If they don’t win, they are certainly out. KC never gets whooped and I’m thinking that this game will be closer than expected because there are receivers & DEF players on KC that are fighting to show that they belong. I like DEN to win but by a closer margin than the spread suggests because like I said Wentz plays to win and he is well rested.

THE PICK: KC+11  

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), (11-4-1) ATS, (5-3) AWAY, (6-2) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-12), (5-11) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (3-4) ATS                 LV+5   

LW, LAC played a total game @NE. LAC ran the ball well, passed the ball well and sacked NE QB Drake Maye 4x. LAC took a 20-7 halftime lead and never looked back winning 40-7. LAC RB by committee rushed for 130yds & 1td on 32carries. LAC is in the playoffs for Jim Harbaugh’s 1^st season as HC. LW, LV also played convincingly @NO by limiting NO to 1td & a fg. LV intercepted NO QB Spencer Rattler 2x and was able to turn them into 7pts. But this game had NO leading 7-3 in the 2^nd qtr before LV countered with a fg & td to make the score LV 13-7. NO kicked a fg with :00 left in the 2^nd qtr to make the score LV 13-10. This was a close one but LV made some adjustments and did not allow another NO point while kicking 2fgs and scoring another td to make the final score, LV 25-10. LV QB Aidan O’Connell had a nice game passing 20/35 for 242yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. LV RB Ameer Abdullah rushed for 115yds on 20carries in the win. He helped take a lot of pressure off of O’Connell @QB. L17 LAC @LV, LAC 9-8 SU & 8-8 ATS 1NL. L28 LAC vs LV, ROAD 13-13-1 ATS 1NL. L30 LAC vs LV, DOG 19-9-1 ATS 1NL. LAC 12-10-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAC 18-17-2 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. LAC 2-3 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LAC 3-3 ATS as a FAV in JAN. LAC 11-1 ATS as a div FAV >1pt off SU win vs opp off SU win. LAC 2-15-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge. LAC 1-10 ATS off DD Su win vs div opp. LV 2-2 ATS vs AFC WEST in JAN. LV 4-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LV 3-2 ATS @HOME in JAN. LV 12-1 ATS as a PICK/DOG vs opp off DD SU win. LV 7-1 ATS off SUATS win L8 vs opp off DD SU win. Here’s the scenario for LAC. They are definitely in the playoffs. They will be the #5 seed if they win on SUN and PITT loses on SAT night. Then they would play @HOU in the wildcard. If PITT wins on SAT night, LAC falls to the #6 seed no matter what LAC does @LV on SUN. So, it will almost be a wait and see scenario that LAC plays. If PITT loses, LAC should play their starters. If PITT wins, they will play their subs. For LV this game means nothing and considering that LV needs a QB and some other position players to get back to being a competitive team, it suits them best if they just lose this game and end up 4-12. LV is not in the running for the #1PICK because all of a sudden they are on a 2game winning streak that knocked them out of the running for the #1PICK. But moving forward, LV still needs a QB because beating JAGS & NO doesn’t constitute a winning formula for success. If LV QB Desmond Ridder makes it to training camp, look for him to compete for the job if LV hasn’t drafted a QB. He is still very young and may just need some tweaking to get his game going. Plus, look for DE Maxx Crosby to be on a different team come training camp. He is too good to be on a terrible team like LV. LV also needs receivers, and an O-LINE. QBs for LV have been sacked a combined 49x which is unacceptable. THE LV DEF has sacked the opposing QBs 37x which isn’t bad and they have 10INTs as well. For LAC, their problem is that their DEF sometimes goes to sleep. The D-LINE has talent but sometimes disappears in BIG games. LAC lost to @PITT, KC (2x), @ARZ, vs BALT & vs TB. These are all playoff teams except ARZ. Beating bad teams will not get you a deep run in the playoffs. You have to show that you can beat good teams. As for this game, I like LAC beating LV because they have something to play for but that could change come after PITT’s SAT night game. These two teams met in week 1 @LAC with LAC winning 22-10. That feels like last season. No revenge here. LAC RB Gus Edwards is questionable for this game but others were able to step up @NE.     

There is a playoff scenario attached to this game. If PITT wins on Saturday night, it doesn’t matter what LAC does on SUN and they will probably rest their starters. The LINE will then change and I will adjust the PICK accordingly.

THE PICK: LAC-5

Seattle Seahawks (9-7), (7-7-2) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (5-1-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (10-6), (9-7), (5-3) HOME, (4-4) ATS                                         LAR+3

LW, SEA struggled to a 6-3 win @CHI on TNF. Was CHI really that tough? Or was SEA really that bad? Even though the SEA DEF sacked CHI QB Caleb Williams 7x and had 1INT, the SEA OFF could only muster 2fgs.This game was an exercise in futility. I liked SEA-3 ½ but you can’t tell me that CHI was that good. SEA needed this game to stay in the playoff conversation and for at least the mean time they were in it. But by the end of the weekend, because of other team scenarios, SEA was officially eliminated. LW, LAR had a battle of their own. I liked LAR-6 @HOME vs ARZ on Saturday night. LAR needed the win to officially stay in front of SEA & have a chance at the NFC WEST title. But ARZ wasn’t going to let that happen on their watch. ARZ was officially knocked out of the playoff conversation a week before and had nothing to play for except jobs. This game was a battle to the end with LAR squeaking out a victory 13-9. As usual, LAR played conservative when they should have been aggressive and the score reflects it. But, with the win LAR captured the NFC WEST title and can rest their starters this week in preparation for the playoffs. L17 SEA @LAR, SEA 7-10 SU & 6-11 ATS. L31 SEA vs LAR, HOME 19-12 ATS. L35 SEA vs LAR, SEA 19-16 SU & 16-19 ATS. SEA 17-19-2 ATS L38 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 8-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. SEA 1-3 ATS as a FAV in JAN. SEA 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. SEA 1-3 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SEA 13-22 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC WEST. SEA 1-6 ATS after allowing 3<pts vs div opp. SEA 1-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV w/revenge. SEA 3-5 ATS L8 w/rest. LAR 12-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LAR 3-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. LAR 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. LAR 2-1 ATS as a DOG in JAN. LAR 9-6 ATS after ARZ. LAR 5-2-1 ATS as a DOG off div ATS loss. SEA is out of the playoffs and really has nothing to play for. SEA has had a disappointing season after starting the season 3-0. SEA was 4-5 at their bye and had to really get it together to make a run. SEA then won 4in a row and they were 8-5 before losing two tough but winnable games and basically knocking themselves out of the playoff conversation. SEA has already clinched a winning season but has a few questions to answer in the off-season about their DEF before going forward. Jimmy Garappolo will be the starting QB for LAR. This will be the 1^st time Jimmy has seen game action this season. He will be a little rusty. Don’t be surprised if you see more backups on OFF & DEF for LAR. However, a win for LAR would guarantee them the #3 seed. A loss combined with a TB victory would drop LAR to the #4seed. A #4 seed would mean that they would have to play the loser of the MINN/DET game. That is not a matchup that LAR would want considering that either team will be more determined after a loss and in a bounceback situation. SEA will be playing their starters as a 10win season is in sight even though SEA has nothing to play for. The only thing that SEA has to play for is knocking LAR a little backwards and revenge for the loss they received vs LAR @SEA in week 9 in OT, 26-20. I like SEA here because they will play well while LAR will be resting key players to get ready for the playoffs starting next week.   

THE PICK: SEA-3

Miami Dolphins (8-8), (7-7-2) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (4-4) ATS @ New York Jets (4-12), (4-11-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS                               NYJ+2 ½

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was out @CLEV. I liked MIA-6 but, this was a late week move because I was relying on Tua @QB. But Tyler Huntley surprised everyone by playing so well. The MIA DEF stepped up against a terrible CLEV QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson who can’t seem to get out of his own way. Anyway, MIA put pressure on him all day with 1sack, 1INT & 1 recovered fumble. Huntley actually led all MIA rushers with 52yds & 1td on 7carries. He also passed for 22/26 for 225yds, 1td & 0turnovers. CLEV did sack him 4x. This game was MIA 6-3 at the half and MIA had to have the win just to be in the playoff picture. But the DEF for MIA made stops and MIA scored 2tds in the 2^nd half while giving up 0pts for a 20-3 win. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers had a disaster of a game. Am I the only one who sees it? Father time has beaten him down and his ego won’t let him acknowledge it. His passing has deteriorated and he can’t run. This was all evident @BUFF. I liked NYJ +9 ½ because I thought NYJ would keep it close. Rodgers should have worn a BUFF jersey. It was BUFF 40-0 before Rodgers was replaced by Tyrod Taylor. The final score was BUFF 40-14. L17 MIA @NYJ, MIA 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS. L30 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 18-11-1 ATS. L35 MIA vs NYJ, DOG 19-14-2 ATS. MIA 11-15 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. MIA 9-8 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 1-2 ATS AWAY in JAN. MIA 3-2 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. MIA 1-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. MIA 5-10-1 ATS vs .250< div opp. MIA 10-2 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500opp. MIA 8-1 ATS vs div opp off BB SU losses. NYJ 1-17 ATS after BUFF. NYJ 26-31-1 ATS L58 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 1-3 ATS vs AFC EAST in JAN. NYJ 2-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. NYJ 1-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. NYJ 10-7 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NYJ 8-3 ATS as a HOME DOG 10<pts after allowing 35>pts. MIA is still playing for a shot at the playoffs. The NYJ season has been over since SEPT. There are many players that have said that they want out if Rodgers returns. I don’t blame them. Now NYJ are talking about Rex Ryan & Ron Rivera as possible new HCs for next season. Rex is iffy but Rivera is a loser. MIA needs to get their game going and right now Huntley is the guy @QB. If MIA gets into the playoffs, Tua will be well rested and ready to go. MIA should be able to run on the NYJ in this game. NYJ #15 RUSH DEF. These two teams met in week 14 @MIA with MIA squeaking out a 32-26 win in OT. NYJ were up in this game but squandered the lead as usual form 23-15 4^th qtr lead. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was on fire in this game throwing 33/47, 331yds 2tds & 0turnovers. He also wasn’t sacked at all. I see a total let down by NYJ in this game even though they could play spoilers. NYJ are a disaster and don’t be surprised if a lot of players are gone and new faces show up. MIA should be pumped for this game and MIA QB Huntley will play even better. I like MIA to win here in a blowout.    

THE PICK: MIA-2 ½

San Francisco 49ers (6-10), (5-11) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (1-6) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (7-9), (9-7) ATS, (5-3) HOME, (5-3) ATS             SF+4

LW, on MNF SF had a chance to knock DET out of the running for the #1seed in the NFC. You knew DET was going to bring every play they had for the revenge of last year’s NFC Championship loss. I said so last week. SF was leading at halftime, 21-13 but in the 2^nd half SF could not stop the onslaught of the DET OFF. SF is a depleted team from injuries and at many positions they have backups playing. DET scored 27 points in the 2^nd half as DET won 40-34. In the loss for SF, QB Brock Purdy may have re-injured his elbow. LW, all ARZ could do was play spoiler @LAR since they had been knocked out of the playoff picture the week before. ARZ was playing a tight game, not allowing too many explosive plays by the LAR OFF. ARZ stopped the LAR run game and didn’t let Stafford put the ball in the hands of his favorite receivers. LAR took a 10-0 halftime lead but ARZ battled back with 2fgs to make the score 10-6 going into the 4^th qtr. In the 4^th qtr, the teams exchanged fgs and LAR held on to win 13-9. If you just looked at the stats for this game, ARZ out gained LAR in yds, 396-257. But, ARZ couldn’t get into the endzone and the 2INTs by ARZ QB Kyler Murray in the 2^nd half stopped any chance that ARZ had of beating LAR. L17 SF @ARZ, SF 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS. L31 SF vs ARZ, SF 17-14 SU & 16-15 ATS. L19 SF vs ARZ, DOG 10-9 ATS. L22 SF vs ARZ, ROAD 12-5 ATS. SF 2-0 ATS as a DOG in JAN. SF 3-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. SF 2-0 ATS AWAY in JAN. SF 14-12 ATS after allowing 28>pts. SF 5-3 ATS as a div ROAD DOG off SU loss. SF 13-3 ATS w/div revenge vs opp off BB SU losses. ARZ 10-7 ATS after LAR. ARZ 1-3 ATS vs NFC WEST in JAN. ARZ 0-1 ATS as a FAV in JAN. ARZ 1-1 ATS @HOME in JAN. ARZ 2-11 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts. ARZ 7-1 ATS off div gm vs opp w/revenge. SF QB Brock Purdy is out for this game with his elbow. Joshua Dobbs will probably start this game against his old team. Neither team has anything to play for except jobs. SF has had a hangover this season from their loss in the SuperBowl. There has been a lot of frustration on top of injuries that has resulted in games lost that SF should have won. These teams met @SF in week 5. SF had a 23-10 lead at the half & a 23-13 lead in the 4^th qtr but squandered it and ARZ came back to win, 24-23. Maybe this was a premonition on the season that was to come for SF. In a game that means nothing, I like ARZ here because they are playing at HOME & Kyler Murray is a better QB than Joshua Dobbs. Plus, there are many SF players that are nursing injuries and probably will sit out. I like ARZ winning by a td.          

THE PICK: ARZ-4

Sunday January 5^th, 2025 8:20pm

Minnesota Vikings (14-2), (11-3-2) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (4-1-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (14-2), (11-4-1) ATS, (6-2) HOME, (4-4) ATS                       MINN+3

LW, I liked MINN-1 @HOME vs GB but MINN got a little lax in their DEF. MINN was leading 20-3 in the 3rds qtr and let GB get back into this game. GB scored a td, then MINN and it was MINN 27-10. But, before you knew it, it was MINN 27-25 after MINN turned the ball over and GB scored 2tds. This cannot happen this week because the DET OFF can get you so many different ways. LW, I liked DET-3 ½ @SF because there were so many motivating factors for DET in this game that I couldn’t conceivably think that DET would lose or just win. But at the half, SF was leading 21-13. But, have no fear, DET scored 27pts in the 2^nd half and SF scored 13pts for the DET 40-34 win. It was DET 40-28 before SF got a dummy td with :43 left to make the final score closer. L17 MINN @DET, MINN 8-9 SU & 8-8-1 ATS. L27 MINN vs DET, DOG 12-13-2 ATS. L31 MINN vs DET, MINN 14-15-2 ATS. L21 MINN vs DET, AWAY 12-8-1 ATS. L35 MINN vs DET, HOME 15-17-3 ATS. MINN 15-8 ATS after GB. MINN 2-6 ATS on SNF vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MINN 9-10 ATS as a DOG on SNF. MINN 9-11 ATS AWAY on SNF. MINN 2-4 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. MINN 1-4 ATS AWAY in JAN. MINN 0-3 ATS as a DOG in JAN. MINN 19-6-2 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 24-17 ATS as a DOG <6pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 10-8 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 12-7 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 5-12 ATS vs .666>conf opp. DET 5-5 ATS @HOME on SNF. DET 4-0 ATS @HOME in JAN. DET 5-0 ATS vs NFC NORTH in JAN. DET 2-0 ATS as a FAV in JAN. DET 13-3 ATS as a HOME FAV 4<pts off BB SU wins. DET 11-4 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 9-1 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs >.400opp. DET 13-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 7-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. DET 8-6 ATS after scoring 40>pts. DET 0-4 ATS L4 @HOME vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. DET 3-2 ATS vs opp off SUATS win. This is the game that will be worth watching this week. Each team has something to gain and something to lose. It’s for all the marbles. The winner gets the #1seed & a bye for the NFC playoffs. The loser gets the #5 seed for the NFC playoffs and will have to travel on the road for the wild card, next weekend. Also, the #5 seed may have to travel the following week if there are lower seeds still playing in the playoffs. For MINN, it has been a great season after their QB pick in the 2024 draft, JJ McCarthy was injured in training camp and needed two surgeries for his knee. In comes Sam Darnold @QB who has had a disappointing career, to say the least, and bounced around the NFL after being selected #3 in the 1^st round by the NYJ in the 2018 NFL Draft. He hasn’t lived up to the hype until this season. See what a little bit of the right coaching can do? Darnold is having the best season of his career with 35tds & 12INTs. He has also passed for 4,153yds which also his best season to date. If you look at tape on him, you see a much more confident player and one that is not afraid to step up in the pocket and sometimes take off for that necessary yardage. He is a BIG reason why MINN is where it is this season. For DET, they are trying to get to the SuperBowl after blowing a nice lead in the NFC Championship game last season @SF. DET will not have to worry about SF as they will not be in the playoffs this season. But DET will have to worry about GB & MINN who know DET very well. Also, DET has had massive injuries that they did not have last season. DET has been on a mission and they have not lost to any teams within the division. DET HC Dan Campbell is not afraid to use any play that involves trickery and may take the opposing team off their game. This game will certainly be a battle. But, this is the matchup that will have significance. MINN #2 RUSH DEF vs DET #6 RUSH OFF. MINN has stopped a lot of teams from getting their run game going and then made stops through the air when it counted. DET is not to be outshined. DET #3 RUSH DEF vs MINN #19 RUSH OFF. DET has had multiple injuries on DEF and may not be able to stop a very good MINN O-LINE and a RB in Aaron Jones who wants to help this team go on a deep run in the playoffs. MINN QB Sam Darnold has been able to spread the ball around nicely even when WR Justin Jefferson is covered. These two teams met in wk 7 @ MINN with DET winning 31-29. In that game DET RBs Gibbs & Montgomery combined for 147yds & 2tds on 24 carries, this time around no Montgomery. MINN RB Aaron Jones rushed for 93yds & 1td on 14carries. In that game, MINN opened up with 10-0 lead only to see DET score 3straight tds to lead at the half 21-10. In the 2^nd half DET opened up their lead to 28-17 and limited MINN’s OFF to 1td and 2fgs. MINN actually recaptured the lead 29-28 before DET QB Jared Goff led a late drive and DET kicked a fg with :15 left to win the game for DET 31-29. For this game, I like MINN To play smarter and tighter and I don’t see any blowouts by either team. But because of the injuries on DEF to DET, I like MINN winning this game. I also like that they are getting points. But, I like MINN to win outright. Don’t be surprised f you see some trick plays by both teams to catch the opposing DEFs off track. This should be a great game and should go down to the wire.         

THE PICK: MINN+3