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2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 9

2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 9 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYES: Pittsburgh Steelers & San Francisco 49ers

Thursday October 31st, 2024 8:15pm

Houston Texans (6-2), (3-4-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ New York Jets (2-6), (2-6) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                    HOU+2

LW, NYJ couldn’t even beat NE. I liked NYJ-6 ½ @NE to finally shut up and win. But NYJ couldn’t do that even after knocking out NE QB Drake Maye with a concussion. NYJ were up 13-7 at the half in a game that was uneventful. NE turned the game over to QB Jacoby Brissett after Maye left and Brissett made safe throws while their RBs did their job and rushed for over 100yds & 3tds. NYJ DEF couldn’t stop them. NYJ were actually up in this game late 22-17 but couldn’t hold the lead and NE marched down the field and scored a td with :22 left to win 25-22. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers did spread the ball around to 6different receivers. LW, I liked HOU-6 @HOME vs INDY. HOU was driving late, leading 23-20 with a 2nd & goal @the INDY 8yd line and a score that would have put HOU up by 10pts, a definite win, a nice cover but they fumbled and INDY recovered. HOU RB Joe Mixon rushed for 102yds & 1td on 25carries which took a lot of pressure off of CJ Stroud to drop passes all over. He threw for 25/37 & 285yds & 1td. This game was tight when it shouldn’t have been but the HOU DEF gave up a lot of yardage on the ground (163yds-mostly to RB Jonathan Taylor) which opened up some holes for the INDY QB. HOU won 23-20 but should have scored more points. L9 HOU vs NYJ, HOU 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS. HOU 4-9-1 ATS on TNF. HOU 2-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. HOU 3-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. HOU 6-8-1 ATS after INDY. HOU 24-16-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 27-23-3 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 13-3 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 7-14 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. HOU 6-5 ATS off SU div HOME win vs non-div opp. HOU 4-7-2 ATS AWAY off SU div win. HOU 7-0 ATS L7 after div HOME gm. NYJ 2-3 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. NYJ 3-7 ATS l10 on TNF. NYJ 3-4 ATS @HOME on TNF. NYJ 0-6 ATS on TNF off div gm. NYJ 9-10 ATS after NE. NYJ 33-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 22-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYJ 5-16 ATS after an SU FAV loss. NYJ 1-10 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off SU FAV loss. NYJ 0-13 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div conf opp. NYJ 11-0 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. NYJ 6-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs >.600 non-div opp. NYJ 10-21 off SU DIV loss vs non-div opp. These are two teams going in opposite directions. HOU is showing strength and NYJ are showing weaknesses and deficiencies. HOU #8 PASS OFF vs NYJ #2 PASS DEF. This is the matchup for this game. HOU has a prolific OFF and a healthy RB Joe Mixon helps QB CJ Stroud open up the OFF. Yes, NYJ can defend vs the pass but there are susceptible to the run and at times don’t cover. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers is looking his age and even with WR Davante Adams at his side, father time is winning this battle. HOU #2 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. The HOU DEF will get to Rodgers in this game and he will turn the ball over. Everyone is thinking that the NYJ are finally due for a win and they desperate for a win after losing five straight but who have they beaten? NYJ have beaten @TENN & vs NE. NYJ have lost to @SF, vs DEN, @MINN, vs BUFF, @PITT & @NE. Is HOU as bad as TENN & NE? You have to say no. HOU is a playoff caliber team and NYJ haven’t beaten any of those types of teams. Plus, the kicking game for NYJ is atrocious. NYJ K Greg Zuerlein has cost NYJ at least two games this season with his kicks. But don’t blame it all on him because bad teams find a way to lose and right now NYJ is a bad team. Take HOU here as they get a win @NYJ and NYJ sink deeper and start blaming each other a little more. By the way, these two teams played each other in wk 14 of the 2023 season @ NYJ with NYJ beating HOU, 30-6. There may be a little revenge & payback on the minds of HOU as a little motivation for this game. A BIG injury note is that HOU WR Stefon Diggs tore his ACL and is out for the season. But I still like HOU in this game.    

THE PICK: HOU+2

Sunday November 3rd, 2024 1:00pm

Dallas Cowboys (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-4) ATS                                         DAL+2 ½

LW on SNF, DAL was down 27-10 in the 4th qtr and tried to make a comeback which was too little too late. SF was playing a little lax DEF and DAL took adavnatge with 2tds in the 4th qtr but didn’t get enough in a 30-24 loss. DAL QB Dak Ptrescott had 2INTs, one which was turned into a SF td. The run game for DAL went nowhere with 46yds by the RBS and Prescott had to do it all by himself. Meanwhile SF rushed for 223yds & 2tds on 36 carries. After a DAL 10-6 lead at the half, DAL came out flat and SF scored 21pts in the 3rd qtr to coast to the win. LW, I thought that TB would get its revenge for their TNF loss @ATL a few weeks ago. Well, ATLQ B Kirk Cousins & CO had other ideas. Cousins were almost near perfect with 23/29, 276yds, 4tds & 0INTs. The RUN game helped out too with 129yds rushing on 29carries. ATL opened up a 31-17 lead going into the 4th qtr but TB shot themselves with an INT but scored a safety and a td to make the final score ATL 31-26. ATL created 3TB turnovers that stopped drives and prevented TB from getting into the endzone. L8 DAL vs ATL, DAL 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. DAL 17-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 30-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 22-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 8-14-1 ATS L23 vs NFC SOUTH. DAL 10-13 ATS before PHILLY. ATL 8-11 ATS after TB. ATL 7-10-1 ATS before NO. ATL 29-36-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 35-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 2-15 ATS @HOME off SUATS FAV win. ATL should take notice that DAL gave up so much yardage on the ground @SF and can’t stop the run. DAL #31 RUSH DEF. ATL should run the ball until the DAL DEF just falls down. ATL has a decent run game, ATL #15 RUSH OFF and likes to run with RBs Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier. Cousins is playing well because the RUN game for ATL is working well. He is able to get time and find guys to spread the ball around to. But, against DAL who is coming off losses before and after their bye, ATL may need to use some plays that DAL hasn’t seen on film yet. The DEF for ATL cannot disappear in this game because DAL can score points. They have a talented team on paper but it doesn’t always show up for games. DAL LB Micah Parsons & RB Rico Dowdle are questionable for this game. This is a big game for ATL. ATL needs to beat some good teams and teams outside the NFC SOUTH. ATL vs NFC SOUTH, 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. Outside the NFC SOUTH, 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS. ATL needs to start winning other games. DAL comes into a game confused. They had two weeks to prepare for SF and at times looked lost and certainly very bad in the 3rd qtr when SF got going. This is a statement game for ATL to show that they have turned the corner and are moving upwards. They need a win here. DAL is lost and it will take an off-season without playoffs to figure it out. But for this game, I see ATL winning a hard fought game by a little more than a fg but less than a td. Take ATL and lay the pts here.     

THE PICK: ATL-2 ½ 

Miami Dolphins (2-5), (1-5-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS                                              MIA+5 ½  

LW, BUFF was @SEA and fate was on the side of BUFF. SEA could have made this game more competitive but they made mental mistakes and miscues after BUFF gave them golden opportunities. SEA beat themselves and BUFF just took advantage of SEA mishaps and before you knew it, the score was BUFF 31-10. Also BUFF RB James Cook rushed for 111yds & 2tds on 17carries which had the SEA DEF on their heels. This let BUFF QB Josh Allen pick apart a SEA secondary that couldn’t make plays. LW, MIA-3 was @ HOME vs ARZ. I liked ARZ because I knew that MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa might be a little rusty and ARZ likes to hang around. This game went back and forth and even though MIA got some solid rushing yards(150yds), ARZ didn’t let this game get out of hand. MIA was up 20-10 in the 3rd qtr and 27-18 in the 4th qtr but ARZ battled back and kicked a fg with :00 on the clock to win 28-27. As I have said before the DEF for MIA is overrated and they let ARZ get points on 6different drives. Plus, the MIA DEF had 0sacks of ARZ QB Kyler Murray and 0INTs. L17 MIA @BUFF, MIA 4-13 SU & 6-10 ATS 1NL. L31 MIA vs BUFF, MIA 12-18 ATS 1NL. L27 MIA vs BUFF, HOME 14-12 ATS 1NL. L15 MIA vs BUFF, BUFF 13-2 SU & 10-4 ATS 1NL. MIA 17-7 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RGs. MIA 22-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. MIA 41-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 34-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 7-2 ATS off SU non-conf FAV loss. MIA 16-10 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 11-6 ATS as a DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 9-3 ATS as a conf DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 37-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 25-29-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 32-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 22-17 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 9-5 ATS off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 9-14 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. BUFF 3-6 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win vs div opp. BUFF 9-14-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 1-8 ATS L9 vs opp w/revenge off BB SU losses. BUFF is on a roll and has been making the most of their scoring opportunities. They have lost only two games, @BALT & @HOU. For both games, BUFF didn’t look right and it may have helped them in the long run. BUFF certainly got very lucky @NYJ but have blown out TENN & @SEA in these last two games. MIA hasn’t looked that good even before QB Tua Tagovailoa got hurt. There’s been infighting and the DEF has not looked good at all. MIA CB Jalen Ramsey is so overrated and overpaid he gets beat by the worst QB. BUFF should pick on him again this SUN. These two teams played in week 2 @MIA and it was no contest with BUFF winning 31-10. BUFF #13 TOT OFF w/#15 PASS OFF & #12 RUSH OFF vs MIA #7 TOT DEF w/#16 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. BUFF should run the heck out of the ball and then drop some passes around as the MIA DEF plays the run. BUFF QB Josh Allen should look for whoever MIA CB Jalen Ramsey is covering and work on him. They say it is tough to sweep the season series in the division but MIA already has a tough time with BUFF. I like BUFF to sweep and win BIG here as the HOME crowd will certainly be into this game. BUFF cannot get cocky and blow opportunities or start committing turnovers. BUFF has to take advantage of opportunities like they did vs SEA and score as much as possible. Lay the point here.      

THE PICK: BUFF-5 ½

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (0-4) ATS                                 LV+7 ½

LW, CINNCY was @HOME -2 ½ vs PHILLY. How CINNCY was the FAV, I just don’t know. PHILLY has been on a roll while CINNCY has been a BIG disappointment. Anyhow, this game was going back and forth and the score was tied 17-17 in the 3rd qtr before CINNCY turned the ball over 2x and were stopped on downs. PHILLY took those opportunities and turned them into 13points which didn’t include the td that PHILLY scored after CINNCY tied it at 17. The CINNCY DEF could not stop PHILLY and CINNCY lost 37-17. The RB tandem for CINNCY of Chase Brown & Zack Moss rushed for 43yds & 1td on 17 carries. LW, LV was @HOME vs KC. I did like KC -9 ½ as a ROAD FAV because KC is on a roll. LV kept the KC run game in check but it’s hard to keep KC QB Pat Mahomes down for long. He made the passes he needed to make and KC TE Travis Kelce carved up the LV DEF for 10catches, 90yds & 1td. This game was not a runaway but KC opened up a 27-13 lead in the 4th qtr but LV scored a td 2with 2:03 remaining to make the final score KC 27-20 and at least get a back door cover. LV QB Gardner Minshew was sacked 5x and did cough up the ball 1x. But he threw for 24/30 for 209yds, 2tds & 0INTs. L7 LV vs CINNCY, LV is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS which incl LV 0-3 Su & 0-3 ATS @CINNCY. LV 8-8-1 ATS since 2007 the week before their bye. LV 40-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 43-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 6-14-1 ATS after KC. LV 8-3 ATS off SU div loss. LV 14-10-1 ATS off SU div loss. LV 7-3 ATS AWAY off SU div loss. LV 10-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt off SU loss vs <.500opp. LV 4-19 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 1-12 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 7-1 ATS off SU div HOME loss vs conf opp. CINNCY 12-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 25-20 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CINNCY 36-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 19-6-1 ATS L26 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 11-8-1 ATS before BALT. CINNCY 26-7 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. LV 16-3 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 16-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 4-6-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 13-6 ATS as a FAV 9<pts after allowing 35>pts. There is no reason why CINNCY should be this big of a FAV. CINNCY has beaten @NYG, @CAR & @CLEV. They have lost vs NE, @KC, vs WASH, vs BALT & vs PHILLY. CINNCY #18 TOT OFF w/#28 RUSH OFF & #7 PASS OFF. CINNCY #24 TOT DEF w/#24 RUSH DEF & #21 PASS DEF. CINNCY Has an OFF that consists of QB Joe Burrow & WRs Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins and that’s it. The run game has been decimated by the departure of RB Joe Mixon. WR Tee Higgins is doubtful for this game so there’s one target gone for Burrow. RB by committee with Chase Brown & Zack Moss but neither of them have shown that they can be the #1 RB. The only thing keeping LV in the game is their DEF. In past weeks I have spoken about the LV trio of DE Maxx Crosby, OLB Robert Spillane & S Tre’von Moehrig. If others step up, the LV DEF would be a game changer. The spread is just too big to ignore and QB Gardner Minshew is due for a BIG game. Someone needs to step up in the RB game so that Minshew doesn’t feel like he has to do it all by himself. Burrow has been known to fumble the ball and LV will try to disrupt him. There may be extra opportunities for LV because CINNCY is susceptible to the fumble. But at the end of the day, LV needs to get it going. LV is desperate for a win and this could be a game that CINNCY overlooks before playing BALT next week. I like LV & the points here.

THE PICK: LV+7 ½   

Los Angeles Chargers (4-3), (4-2-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS                  CLEV+3

LW, no one thought that CLEV would play tough @HOME vs BALT. I did and you could look at my analysis for that game. CLEV QB Jameis Winston is looking to stay in the NFL and this was his opportunity. The CLEV DEF did their job and BALT made mental mistakes. BALT probably didn’t take CLEV seriously and that’s what happens. Anyway, Winston threw 3tds, 1fumble but spread the ball around nicely. He was lucky that BALT S Kyle Hamilton dropped a sure INT that would have ended the game with BALT leading 24-23. CLEV got a 2nd chance and Winston threw a td pass to WR Cedric Tillman for a 29-24 lead with :59 to play. BALT couldn’t get anything going and CLEV got the win. CLEV held BALT RB Derrick Henry to 73yds rushing. LW, LAC @HOME beat up a bad NO team 26-8. This game was no runaway as LAC was only leading 9-5 at the half. But in the 2nd half LAC got rolling and NO could only manage 4punts 1fg and a missed fg which LAC turned around a for a td. NO was still without QB Derek Carr and NO had 3different guys under center which LAC sacked 5x. LAC QB Justin Herbert had a nice game but this game could have gone differently in the 4th qtr.  WR Ladd McConkey was the star for LAC with 6catches for 111yds &2tds. L10 LAC vs CLEV, LAC 8-2 SU but 3-7 ATS. LAC 27-37 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 37-27-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 15-17-3 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 0-6 ATS as a FAV <6pts L6 vs opp off SU DOG win. CLEV 6-11 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CLEV 24-37 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 17-30 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 4-11 ATS after BALT. CLEV 5-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off SU DIV win. CLEV 16-20-1 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 5-11-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CLEV 5-21-1 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 5-21 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. No one gives CLEV much of a chance but they can play spoiler for some teams that are trying to make the playoffs. In the past, CLEV has given LAC trouble which goes way back to when Phillip Rivers was the QB for LAC. LAC may beat CLEV but CLEV keeps it within striking range which makes it a tight game. As I have said, LAC looks great on paper but it doesn’t always translate to the field. Consistency has always been a problem for LAC and it’s no different this season. LAC has a good DEF but sometimes they disappear. CLEV has nothing to lose because no one expects them to win. But that is when a team is most dangerous, just ask BALT. Things happen when you underestimate your opponent. CLEV RB Nick Chubb has had a couple of games to get situated so he should be ready for a breakout game. Look for him to be busy to take pressure off of Winston. That will give Winston enough time to spread the ball around. CLEV has some underrated receivers and they are getting better looks now that WR Amari Cooper is gone. I like this to be a tight game unless Winston falls backwards and starts giving the game away. Otherwise CLEV might just steal a win here. I like CLEV as the HOME DOG here.    

THE PICK: CLEV+3

New England Patriots (2-6), (2-5-1) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (1-6), (1-6) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                    NE+3 ½

LW, NE was +6 ½  @HOME vs NYJ. I liked NYJ to get out of their funk but NE wouldn’’t have any of that. NE QB Drake Maye started the game and looked good even rushing for a td but he suffered a concussion and Jacoby Brissett came in. He was calm with 0turnovers. This was a back and forth game where leads changed al the way to the end. The running game for NE took a lot of pressure off of Brissett by getting needed yds and a couple of tds. Somehow, the NYJ DEF couldn’t stop NE. But at the end of the game, Brissett led a 12play drive for 70 yds and NE scored a td with :22 left and NE won 25-22. LW, TENN was+11 @DET. TENN has taken steps backwards this season. I said this game would be a blowout for DET and it was. But this game was 14-14 in the 2nd qtr before DET took out their book of plays and scored 38 unanswered points for a 52-14 win. TENN did sack DET QB Jared Goff 4x but couldn’t stop the DET express. Mason Rudolph was the QB for TENN while Will Levis is still out with a shoulder injury. L6 NE vs TENN, NE 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS. NE 14-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NE 38-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 30-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 13-8 ATS after NYJ. NE 14-0 ATS off SU div HOME win vs opp off BB SU losses. 6-8-1 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU losses. NE 20-9 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. TENN 26-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 31-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. As I have said before, on paper, the TENN team looks pretty good but, it doesn’t always transfer to the field. TENN can’t get it together and they need to decide if Will Levis is their QB of the future. He is questionable for this game with his shoulder injury. TENN QB Mason Rudolph is capable of running the OFF but is not a long term solution at QB. NE QB Drake Maye is also questionable with the concussion he sustained vs NYJ. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett knows the OFF but needs a lot of help from the RBs to take some of the pressure off of him. TENN WR Calvin Ridley has stepped into the #1 WR spot now that DeAndre Hopkins was traded to KC. This game is really a toss up because neither team has really shown any consistency for winning. Both teams have a lackluster OFF and both have DEFs that can be beat. TENN has won one game because MIA was without their QB and the backups were beat up too. NE showed promise in the game vs NYJ and in a couple of other games as well. But at the end of the day, these are two bad teams. It’s been my experience that when you have two bad teams playing each other, to go with the bad team with the points. There may be a number of turnovers ofr both teams in this game which will sway the momentum. NE didn’t have any turnovers last week and TENN had 4turnovers. What I like in this game is the DEF for NE who comes up with plays when you least expect them. What is deceiving is TENN #1 TOT DEF w/ #1 PASS DEF. Where is that DEF showing up? TENN has 14sacks & 1INT through 7games. Take NE & the points and this game will come down to a fg at the end.     

THE PICK: NE+3 ½    

Washington Commanders (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ New York Giants (2-6), (2-6) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (0-4) ATS                   NYG+3 ½

LW, CHI was @WASH and I liked WASH+2 ½ @HOME even without the points. I liked WASH to win outright because I feel they are better coached and do have a better team. Well, WASH didn’t take advantage of certain opportunities and before you knew it CHI was leading 15-12 with :25 left in the game. We all know what happened next and it was unbelievable and WASH won 18-15. When a team believes in themselves anything is possible. I give WASH QB Jayden Daniels a lot of credit for even playing this game with bruised ribs. On MNF, NYG were @PITT. I liked PITT-4 ½ because let’s face it, NYG always find a way to lose. NYG never led in this game although both teams traded fgs for the 1st half at 9-9. But in the 2nd half, PITT scored 2straight tds and NYG was down 23-9. NYG climbed back but got no closer and the final was PITT 26-18. In the game, NYG RB Tyrone Tracy who has been a great find as a rookie suffered a concussion and is probably out for the game vs WASH. On their last two drives in the failed comeback, NYG QB fumbled the ball away and then threw an INT. PITT was playing a little lax on DEF in the 4th qtr and if NYG could have better held it together, there was a chance that they may have pulled it out. But, bad teams find a way to lose. L17 WASH @ NYG, WASH 5-11-1 SU & 8-9 ATS. L25 WASH vs NYG, DOG 18-10 ATS. WASH 7-5 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 22-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 17-33 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 34-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 18-6 ATS off SU DOG win. NYG 20-27-1 ATS L48 as a HOME DOG. NYG 26-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 26-36-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 25-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 13-7-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 3-10 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 8-20 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. These two teams played @WASH in wk2 with WASH winning 21-18. For that game, NYG had no kicker due to HC Brian Daboll’s insistence & incompetence of going with a slightly injured kicker with no backup. To shorten the story, NYG were without a kicker and needed 2pt conversions for any td they scored and could not kick a tying or winning fg later. This gave WASH multiple opportunities with the ball and they took advantage of it. That was only Daniels 2nd pro game. Now that WASH is more comfortable and experienced with Daniels as the QB, they have become a team that can get going in a hurry. There may be a revenge factor here but NYG just needs wins and WASH is rolling. Even though WASH’s schedule is not that tough as compared to others, the OFF has been explosive. WASH #3 TOT OFF vs NYG #17 TOT DEF. The DEF for NYG has certainly lost something since last season and the O-LINE for NYG still has its problems. I like WASH here because even though the team only has 1INT so far this season, they are playing against a QB that is known for throwing INTs. WASH does have 21 sacks so far so they do put pressure on the QB. NYG do have decent receivers if Jones can get them the ball. But I see WASH putting pressure on him and creating turnovers. I like WASH here & lay the points.  

THE PICK: WASH-3 ½

New Orleans Saints (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-7), (1-7) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                               CAR+7

LW, CAR didn’t play too badly @DEN. I knew they weren’t beating DEN and that DEN-9 should have beaten CAR worse. But, if CAR QB Bryce Young doesn’t throw those 2INTs, this game may have ended differently. DEN did turn those INTS into 2tds but they only score 2other tds for a 28-14 win. I did like DEN-9 and DEN scoring 21points in the 2nd qtr put CAR in a hole they couldn’t get out of. LW, NO looked bad @LAC. They hung around early but even if they had QB Derek Carr at the helm, LAC was pumped for this game. The score was LAC 9-5 at the half but LAC just got rolling with 2tds & 1fg in the 2nd half while NO only managed a fg for a 26-8 LAC win. In the process, NO RB Alvin Kamara injured his ribs and is questionable for the game @CAR. No Derek Carr at the QB and QB by committee for NO was sacked 5x. L17 NO @CAR, NO 9-8 SU & 7-9-1 ATS. L35 CAR vs NO, NO 20-15 SU & 15-19-1 ATS. L23 NO vs CAR, NO 12-10-1 ATS. NO 18-15-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. NO 16-8 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NO 11-5 ATS before ATL. NO 39-33-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 41-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 33-19 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. NO 8-12-1 ATS as a div ROAD FAV 2>pts. NO 6-7 ATS as a div ROAD FAV >3pts. NO 12-28-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 4-12-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV <14pts vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 10-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs .<500opp. CAR 14-18-2 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. CAR 14-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CAR 37-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 30-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 22-20 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in NOV. CAR 17-13-1 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 13-10 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 12-10 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. CAR 11-17-1 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. This is a game that CAR can actually win. They didn’t look as bad as you think vs DEN. If Young hadn’t had those 2INTS the game would been much closer. DEN did get a little lucky. CAR has that 1-2 RB punch that may come into play here. RB Miles Sanders needs to show more to get more touches. RB Chubba Hubbard is a force to take down but when the team is trailing the run game goes out of the window. He is averaging 74yds a game by himself. CAR #25 RUSH OFF vs NO #28 RUSH DEF. If CAR can get their run game going, they will be able to wear down NO. CAR QB Bryce Young will be starting once again due to the injury to Andy Dalton. Young needs to be patient and take what the DEF gives him. These two teams met in wk 1 @NO will NO slamming CAR, 47-10. I hope CAR remembers and takes that into this game. NO has been a BIG disappointment after starting the season 2-0. NO QB Derek Carr is expected to start this game vs CAR and CAR should be ready. CAR is a BIG DOG here but they can get a BIG upset here if they put pressure on a rusty Carr. Carr missed the last 3games due to an oblique injury. The notebook says, put pressure on Carr and he folds. Also, CAR traded WR Dionte Johnson to BALT, one less target for Bryce. However, something tells me that there may be an upset brewing here. Knowing NO and how they play which is unpredictable, this game could come down to a fg at the end for either team. On top of that, a lot of players are questionable for NO which means if they play they are protecting injuries. NO is banged up and ready for the taking by CAR. I like the HOME DOG with the points.

THE PICK: CAR+7   

Denver Broncos (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                         DEN+9 ½

LW, I liked DEN @HOME vs CAR. I know, so what, everybody did. But at times DEN looked as though they weren’t taking CAR serious. Well, when you do that, you let the other team back in the game and before you know it, you lose a game that was yours from the get go. If it weren’t for 2INTS in the 2nd half by CAR this might have been a closer game than 28-14. DEN QB Bo Nix looked good with 28/37 passing for 284yds, 3tds & 0INTS. He spread the ball around nicely to 11different receivers. The two fumbles that DEN had were turned into tds by CAR so this game might have been closer. DEN may have been looking ahead to BALT. LW, BALT was a BIG FAV-9 ½ @CLEV. I liked CLEV because this was the AFC NORTH, CLEV was due and I had a feeling that CLEV would get the back door cover because BALT gives up a lot of points in the 4th qtr. Well, CLEV beat BALT 29-24 but BALT had their chances for the win but couldn’t hold on to the ball on 2separate occasions. One was on OFF and their other was on DEF that would have sealed a 24-23 victory for BALT. There were other chances for BALT but they couldn’t get it done. However, BALT QB Lamar Jackson spread the ball around nicely to 8different receivers but in the end he couldn’t get the ball to a receiver in the endzone. L10 DEN vs BALT, DEN 5-5 SU & 5-5 ATS. DEN 16-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DEN 10-13 ATS before KC. DEN 35-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 28-23 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 2-10 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs >.500opp. BALT 9-8-2 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB HGs. BALT 15-6-1 ATS after CLEV. BALT 11-7-2 ATS before CINNCY. BALT 36-30-4 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 44-33-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 10-13 ATS vs AFC WEST. BALT 3-9 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss. BALT 9-5-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC WEST. BALT 10-8-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. BALT 15-9-1 ATS after losing AWAY & returning HOME. BALT 12-1 ATS off div gm vs .500>opp. BALT 10-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-18 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 8-0 ATS L8 off SUATS loss vs .500>opp. BALT 15-2 ATS after div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. DEN has been looking very good and their DEF has held teams in check. But this week, they need to see if their DEF is for real or just fluff. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF vs BALT #1 RUSH OFF. BALT has the run game with QB Lamar Jackson & RB Derrick Henry. DEN will need a spotter too keep these guys in check. DEN hasn’t beaten anyone that is playoff bound. They have won @TB, @NYJ, vs LV, @NO & vs CAR. They have lost to @SEA, vs PITT & vs LAC. This game will be a true test because BALT is better than all of those teams. I like DEN to keep it close in this game with their DEF. There should be a couple of takeaways for the DEN DEF. How the DEN OFF responds is another matter. They may have to pull out some trick plays to keep the BALT DEF honest. BALT is on a bounceback after their loss to CLEV but this game will not be a blowout because the DEN DEF is very good and DEN HC Sean Payton is no slouch. BALT will have a tougher time than expected against DEN and it should be a very good game going down to the wire. Take DEN and the points here as there may even be an upset.      

THE PICK: DEN+9 ½

Sunday November 3rd, 2024 4:00pm

Chicago Bears (4-3), (5-2) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                           ARZ+1 ½

Sorry, CHI fans but I liked WASH+2 ½ @CHI last week. But CHI blew this game in two ways. The handoff to a lineman at the goal line with a lost fumble. That was an almost certain td and the Hail Mary. CHI spotted WASH a 12-0 lead than came back with 2tds and a 2pt conversion to make the score CHI 15-12. I was watching the game and felt I needed to watch it to the end, I had that feeling. Well, the impossible happened and the Hail Mary happened after CHI thought they had won the game. If you didn’t see it, it was unbelievable. WASH won 18-15. Oh, and by the way, CHI CB Tyrique Stevenson should be suspended for 1game. LW, ARZ never let themselves get down. I liked ARZ+3 @ MIA. I have said that the MIA DEF is overrated and they proved it. ARZ was down 20-10 in the 3rd qtr and 27-18 I the 4th qtr and never let up. They battled back and ended up kicking a fg with :00 left on the clock to win @MIA, 28-27. ARZ WRs Trey McBride & Marvin Harrison combined for 15catches 235yds &1td. ARZ QB Kyler Murray was not sacked and ARZ committed 0turnovers. Murray also threw for 26/36 for 307yds & 2tds. This was a battle back and forth and ARZ showed their grit by never backing down. It was a great win. L7 CHI vs ARZ, CHI 4-3 SU but 2-5 ATS. CHI 11-10-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CHI 6-8 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. CHI 28-20-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 43-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 10-6 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CHI 5-0 ATS AWAY L5 vs opp off BB SUATS wins. 1-6 ATS L7 off SU FAV loss. ARZ 13-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. ARZ 29-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 19-19-1 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 44-50 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 20-9 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 20-9 ATS as a non div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 5-12 ATS w/non-div revenge. ARZ 2-12 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 2-7 ATS @HOME vs opp off non-div SU FAV loss. CHI has been getting better by the week. However, they were outplayed last week and should have lost regardless of the Hail Mary. CHI QB Caleb Williams is looking better each week but the O-LINE is still not there. CHI RB D’Andre Swift is having a nice season and did run the heck out of the ball vs WASH but he’s done well vs bad teams vs the run and bad vs teams that were good against the run. ARZ #27 RUSH DEF. ARZ did give up a lot of yds rushing vs MIA (150yds) so they need to really stop the run here. CHI has beaten some bad teams vs TENN, vs LAR, vs CAR vs JAGS but have lost to good teams. They lost @HOU & @INDY. INDY is not a good team but gritty at best. I like ARZ because they are gritty and have won 3out their last 4 and are on somewhat of a roll. I don’t see a blowout here and it could go come down to a fg if it is one of those games. Even though CHI may be on a bounceback after that devastating loss which they thought they won, I like ARZ here as the HOME DOG. Also, these two teams played in wk 16 in 2023 @CHI with CHI winning 27-16, so there may be a little payback on the minds of ARZ here. This is essentially a PICK’EM game but I like ARZ here.

THE PICK: ARZ+1 ½     

Detroit Lions (6-1), (6-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (6-2), (4-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                    GB+3 ½

LW, DET-11 @HOME vs TENN, DET let TENN think they had a shot in this game. This game was actually tied 14-14 in the 2nd qtr and if you were watching it you may have thought that TENN had a legitimate chance to upset DET. Well, DET scored 38 unanswered pts and the final was DET 52-14. DET probably could have scored more but let’s face it, the game was very much over. DET QB Jared Goff only threw 12/15 for 85yd but threw 3tds while RB David Montgomery even got into the act and threw a td on a trick play. DET RBs Gibbs & Montgomery combined for 160yd rushing & 2td on 20carries. While the DET punt returner Kalif Raymond had 5returns for 190yds and 1td. TENN had 4turnovers which DET turned into 3tds. It was total team effort by DET. LW, GB needed a last second fg to beat the JAGS @JAGS. GB QB Jordan Love hurt his groin and Malik Willis came in and directed a td drive when GB needed it most. JAGS were playing toe-to-toe with GB. I had liked GB-4 ½ and GB had their chances for stoppage but they couldn’t get the job done and Willis needed the last drive to set up the winning fg @:00 to win 30-27. GB RB Josh Jacobs looked good in this game with 127yds rushing &2tds on 25carries. GB was up 27-17 in the 4th qtr but let the lead slip away and they needed the fg at the end to win it, 30-27. L17 DET @ GB, DET 5-12 SU but 9-7-1 ATS. L34 DET vs GB, DET 18-15-1 ATS. L33 DET vs GB, DET 5-28 SU. L24 DET vs GB, HOME 12-11-1 ATS. L24 DET vs GB, FAV 12-11-1 ATS. DET 13-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 23-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 26-26 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 29-29 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 13-6 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. DET 14-10 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 5-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. DET 10-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 7-11 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .333>opp. DET 5-6 ATS after scoring 40>pts. DET 11-1 ATS off DD ATS win. GB 7-9-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. GB 28-24 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 26-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 34-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 17-8-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 19-8 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. Right now DET is crushing it on both sides of the ball. They are beating teams every which way even after they commit errors(see MINN gm). Nothing takes them off their game. For GB, we will see how serious the groin injury to QB Jordan Love is. QB Malik Willis is very capable of leading this team as a fill in but DET is very good on both sides of the ball. DET #5 RUSH DEF. I don’t see GB RB Josh Jacobs getting the kind of yards vs DET as he did vs JAGS. So it will be all on whoever is the QB for GB. The DET OFF can beat you many ways and Goff doesn’t have to carry the load. DET #6 TOT OFF w/#6 RUSH OFF & #11 PASS OFF. GB has a n effective OFF as well and can put up some points but it is their DEF that is sometimes lacking. GB #5 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #9 PASS OFF. This game will certainly be a battle and turnovers will be big in this game. I like DET HC Dan Campbell’s philosophy and he never shows you the same formation twice. He has a trick play up his sleeve and he wants to win every game. His players play tough for him and I don’t see either team getting a blowout win here unless one team turns the ball over a lot. But in the battle for the NFC NORTH, I like DET here even though they went from DET+1 to DET-3 ½ . Look for a hard fought win by DET.

THE PICK: DET-3 ½

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6), (4-3-1) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-2-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (1-2) ATS                     JAGS+7 ½

LW, JAGS were +4 ½ @HOME vs GB. JAGS were down in the 4th qtr 27-17 and fought back to tie the game at 27-27. But GB put together a late drive and kicked a fg with :00 left to win 30-27. The RUN DEF for JAGS let them down by giving up 170yds & 2tds on 39carries. JAGS again played catchup to no avail. Always disregard stats in a comeback loss as the DEF plays lax. LW, PHILLY was in a battle @CINNCY. This game was 10-10 at the half and 17-17 in the 3rd qtr and I liked PHILLY+2 ½ . That was a gift because CINNCY is overrated as long as Burrow is the QB and the DEF can’t do anything. Everyone thinks CINNCY will just win. CINNCY couldn’t stop PHILLY & and also turned the ball over 2x giving PHILLY more chances to score. After 17-17 PHILLY scored 20 more points including 10points off a CINNCY INT & fumble that led to a 37-17 PHILLY rout. PHILLY was not stopped in the 2nd half and CINNCY didn’t help themselves with the turnovers. L5 JAGS vs PHILLY, JAGS 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS. JAGS 26-24-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 40-32-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 14-40 ATS vs NFC. JAGS 4-16 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 2-12 ATS as a ROAD DOG <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 3-11 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 3-18 ATS L21 as non-conf DOG off SU loss. PHILLY 8-9 ATS before DAL. PHILLY 34-33-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 44-35-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 28-17-1 ATS vs non-conf opp. PHILLY 10-1-1 ATS @HOME after SU DOG win. PHILLY 1-6 ATS as a non-conf FAV <13pts off BB SUATS wins. PHILLY 4-14 ATS as a non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. You may think the spread is too big but JAGS are really not that good. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley is in a groove and that gives the PHILLY OFF a lethal weapon. Aside from the fact that PHILLY has good receivers, how do they stop Barkley? The answer is, they don’t. If PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts sees that the DEF is loading the box, he can call an audible and a PHILLY receiver gets open. He has a true two tier OFF. JAGS WR Christian Kirk is out for the remainder of the season with a fractured collarbone. He was their 2nd leading receiver which now puts pressure on JAGS WR Brian Thomas to deliver more for a team going nowhere. Right now, the whole PHILLY team is in a groove and turning things upward after a shaky 2-2 start. PHILLY had a loss to ATL & TB and there were whispers that this team was done. Even though the competition hasn’t been great in their 3game win streak, they are doing what a team is supposed to do and that is win. They are getting their team to gel and preparing for the good teams. PHILLY should run the heck out of the ball vs JAGS so that JAGS never touch the ball. PHIILY #2 RUSH OFF vs JAGS #29 TOT DEF w/#31 PASS DEF & #9 RUSH DEF. JAGS have 0INTs this season. Hopefully I didn’t jinx PHILLY. Hurts should have enough time to pick this team apart. That will certainly open up the run game & Barkley can take off. This has the makings of a blowout because PHILLY is not afraid to put up points like other coaches. Don’t be surprised if this game is over by the early 3rd qtr. Hurts would like to have a big game and get everyone involved. I also see some turnovers by the JAGS OFF that PHILLY takes advantage off and scores some points. But PHILLY can’t get too cocky knowing that they are playing another bad team. Lay the points here as PHILLY rolls.

THE PICK: PHILLY-7 ½   

Los Angeles Rams (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4), (3-4-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS                                    SEA+1 ½  

LW on TNF, LAR got late additions of WRs Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua for the game vs MINN. Had I known that, I would have picked LAR. It is a completely different OFF with those two in the lineup. They caught 12passes for 157yds & 1td. Plus, it opens up lanes for other guys. LAR QB Matthew Stafford was able to spread the ball around to 9different receivers. MINN started out with a 14-7 lead but then the LAR DEF shut the door and limited MINN to 2fgs and LAR scored 23pts on to a 30-20 win. LAR RB rushed for 97yds on 23 carries which kept the MINN DEF at bay while Stafford picked them apart for 4tds. LW, SEA+3 @HOME vs BUFF was a big disaster for SEA. They beat themselves early with mistake after mistake and they put themselves in a hole that they couldn’t get out of. SEA lost 31-10 and it wasn’t even that close. I had liked SEA+3 @HOME but from the beginning it didn’t look good. Out for SEA went the run game because they were down and trying to catch up. SEA was without WR DK Metcalf but he has a case of fumbleitous and has hurt SEA’s chances in games. SEA’s stats for this game are all in catchup and garbage mode and SEA’s only td was when the game was way over and very late in the game. Plus, SEA DEF couldn’t stop the BUFF rush for 164yds & 2tds on 34carries. L17 LAR @SEA, LAR 5-12 SU & 7-10 ATS. L34 SEA vs LAR, LAR 15-19 SU but 18-16 ATS. L14 LAR vs SEA, LAR 11-3 ATS. L30 LAR vs SEA, HOME 19-11 ATS. LAR 18-16-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 27-34-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 23-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 22-34 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. LAR 8-6 ATS w/rest off an SU win. LAR 6-6 ATS w/rest off an ATS win. LAR 10-7 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. LAR 14-5 ATS off DD SU non-div win vs opp off DD SU loss. LAR 1-5 ATS L6 after TNF. SEA 9-7 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. SEA 12-5 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. SEA 12-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SEA 26-25 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 28-23 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 33-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 12-7 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. SEA 7-5 ATS as a DOG after non-conf HOME gm. SEA 1-7 ATS vs <.500 div opp off SU win. As I said, LAR is a definitely different team with WRs Kupp & Nacua in the lineup. They almost can’t be stopped because of all the weapons. SEA is really not that good. SEA QB Geno Smith is who he is. He shined for a while in SEA when they needed it but over the long haul he cannot take this team anywhere. He had o egood season in 11seasons and he has regressed since that season. But where is SEA going? They are a middle of the road team with no direction. Their DEF gets beat on a regular basis. SEA #22 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. LAR should just run all day on SEA. But, how is the SEA DEF going to stop Nacua & Kupp? They will not and if they stop one, the other will be open and so will others. Stafford is too smart to fall for any coverages and he will look for the safety valve or check down if everyone is covered or he will audible at the line to catch SEA off guard. This is a game that LAR should win handily even though SEA is on a bounce back from a blowout loss. But SEA may be blown out again this week because LAR has their full squad on OFF. LAR needs to take care of business and not get cocky with trick plays and just score a lot of points. Lay the points here. 

THE PICK: LAR-1 ½

Sunday November 3rd, 2024 8:20pm

Indianapolis Colts (4-4), (5-2-1) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                                     INDY+5

LW, INDY QB Anthony Richardson tapped himself out of the game. That’s a no-no in the NFL. It was during a tight game @HOU and it shows, he is out of shape. Well right now, he is out of a job. INDY lost 23-20 but it should have been worse because HOU was driving late with the score 23-20 and HOU fumbled the ball on a sure td run that would have made it 30-20. I liked HOU-6 @ HOME vs INDY. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor got his usual 105yds rushing & 1td on 20carries in the loss. INDY could not stop HOU RB Joe Mixon as he rushed for 102yds &1td on 25carries. LW on TNF, I liked MINN -3 @LAR. But LAR activated their two top receivers in Kupp & Nucua and the game was over. MINN started out 14-7 in this game but LAR got started and Kupp & Nucua were on fire. LAR couldn’t be stopped and LAR ended up winning 30-20. MINN RB Aaron Jones was held to 58yds on 19carries. MINN lost OT Christian Darrisaw to a torn ACL during the game which is a big loss for the MINN run game. L6 INDY vs MINN, INDY 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS. INDY 15-9 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. INDY 4-7 ATS as a DOG <6pts in 2nd of BB RGs. INDY 13-10 ATS as a DOG on SNF. INDY 16-8 ATS AWAY on SNF. INDY 42-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 37-27 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 12-8 ATS after HOU. INDY 11-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. INDY 9-12 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 10-16 ATS vs .400>opp off SUATS loss. INDY 15-7 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. MINN 12-9 ATS @HOME on SNF. MINN 38-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 34-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 14-3 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opp. MINN 16-10 ATS @HOME off SU loss. MINN 9-3 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs .500> opp. Joe Flacco is starting @QB for INDY. INDY QB Anthony Richardson has been a disaster and I said when he was drafted that he was deficient in 2areas, accuracy & reading DEFs. He is a runner first and has a completion percentage that is way below 50%. He had only played 13 college games so who thought this guy would make it in the NFL? INDY is stuck with him but going forward Flacco is the QB. Also, as long as INDY RB Jonathan Taylor is healthy and ready to go, this gives whoever the QB is for INDY a viable OFF option that takes a lot of pressure off the QB. It can open up the OFF to keep the opposing DEF guessing. As for MINN, they are on a two game losing streak. They have come down to EARTH about the deficiencies on their team. That was evident when they couldn’t stop the LAR OFF last week. MINN #30 PASS DEF. This is not very good because Flacco likes to throw and he will have ample opportunity to do so. He has been around and SNF doesn’t scare him. MINN #3 RUSH DEF. MINN is very good vs the run so INDY RB Jonathan Taylor may be used a lot out of the backfield. Flacco knows how to spread the ball around, Richardson does not. INDY needs to stop MINN RB Aaron Jones. Jones had a subpaer game @LAR last week and will look to rebound. If INDY can stop him then they could win the game because MINN QB Sam Darnold is below average and prone to turnovers. If ONDY doesn’t stop Jones it will be a field day. I like MINN to win but the game will be tighter than the spread suggests. INDY needs a win too and this game may come down to a fg at the end. Take INDY & the points. 

THE PICK: INDY+5

Monday November 4th, 2024 8:15pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0), (4-2-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (2-1) ATS                     TB+8 ½  

LW, I liked TB+2 ½ @HOME vs ATL. I figured that how TB had lost earlier in the season @ATL on TNF, TB would be up for this game and win, right? Well, TB suffered multiple injuries to two of their top receivers and TB QB Baker Mayfield was left to throw to receivers who weren’t up to speed. He had 2INTS that stopped drives but it was not a good game for TB. Add the fact that ATL QB Kirk Cousins owns TB and it all came crashing down for TB. Cousins threw for 4td & 0INTs and ATL won 31-26. This game was 14-14 in the 2nd qtr but ATL dug in and started to build a lead to 31-17. TB made a comeback in the 4th qtr with a safety and a td but got no closer than 31-26. The run game for ATL was working as well rushing for 129yds on 29carries. LW, I liked KC-9 ½ @LV. LV isn’t great but KC QB Pat Mahomes is. KC built a 27-13 lead but LV got a dummy td late in the game to end the scoring at KC 27-20. The score for KC definitely should have been wider. KC TE Travis Kelce had a great game with 10catches for 90yds & 1td. He is still money and gets open. Newly acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins caught 2passes for 29yds. Maohmes kept the LV DEF on their toes while passing the ball to 9different receivers. KC was never in trouble about losing this game just the margin of victory. L6 TB vs KC, TB 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS. TB 2-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. TB 10-5-1 ATS after ATL. TB 49-32-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 41-32-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 17-14-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. KC 7-4-1 ATS L12 on MNF. KC 8-7 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. KC 11-12 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 8-14 ATS after LV. KC 9-12 ATS before DEN. KC36-51 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 30-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 20-13 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. KC 15-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 13-2 ATS after div gm vs .500>opp. TB is very banged up and do not have WRS Chris Godwin & Mike Evans for the near future.  TB QB Baker Mayfield will have to do with less but, he is also up against a DEF that stops at nothing to create more opportunities for its OFF. KC #5 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF & #17 PASS DEF. Top it off with Mayfield being a gunslinger and missing guys due to injury and you have, at least on paper, a recipe for disaster. KC has not had a blowout game in quite a while and this would be a perfect opportunity for them to show the rest of the league that the OFF is still clicking mighty well, thank you very much. Plus, as long as you Mahomes as your QB, the score could be big. Notice I didn’t say a loss. Mahomes has become like Brady, you expect him to win every game. Look for KC WR DeAndre Hopkins to see more passes as they try to acclimate him into the OFF. Anyway, with the KC DEF I like them @HOME laying the points.      

THE PICK: KC-8 ½