2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 11
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Carolina Panthers
Thursday November 14th, 2024 8:15pm
Washington Commanders (7-3), (7-3) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-2), (5-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (1-3) ATS WASH+3 ½
LW, PHILLY took it to DAL in DAL 34-6. I liked DAL+7 but as it turns out DAL is now terrible and PHILLY is getting their game together and it showed vs DAL. The DEF for PHILLY limited DAL to just 2fgs and stopped them cold in the redzone. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley had a light day rushing for 66yds on 14carries. But the PHILLY ground game combined for 187yds & 2td on 38carries. PHILLY also capitalized on DAL turnovers by turning them into 13pts in the rout. LW, WASH was up 24-14 in WASH vs PITT but couldn’t hold the lead. WASH couldn’t stop PITT and that could be a problem for WASH the rest of the season. WASH QB Jayden Daniels was limited in his running and the run game only managed 60yds &3tds but on 22carries. The OFF for WASH was a little stymied down the stretch of this game and PITT came back and won 28-27. WASH couldn’t capitalize on PITT turnovers. L17 WASH @PHILLY, WASH 8-9 SU & 12-5 ATS. L30 PHILLY vs WASH, FAV 17-13 ATS. L34 WASH vs PHILLY, ROAD 23-11 ATS. WASH 3-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. WASH 5-8 ATS on TNF. WASH 2-6 ATS vs div on TNF. WASH 3-3 ATS as a DOG on TNF. WASH 15-9 ATS before DAL. WASH 23-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 35-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 46-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 13-6 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 6-18 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 6-17 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 2-12 ATS vs .<750 div opp off SU win. WASH 7-2 ATS L9 AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. WASH 1-6 ATS L7 in 1st of BB div gms. PHILLY 7-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PHILLY 6-4 ATS @HOME on TNF. PHILLY 7-4 ATS L11 on TNF. PHILLY 5-11 ATS after DAL. PHILLY 34-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 34-34-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 45-36-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 12-5 ATS off SU win vs div opp. PHILLY is on a 5game win streak but haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record. They have beaten CLEV, @NYG, @CINNCY, JAGS & @DAL. None of these teams are going into the playoffs. But in these games, PHILLY has found the right combination of OFF that keeps opposing DEFs on their toes. WASH is having a nice season after having many seasons with nothing to root for. However, they have lost to good teams and beaten bad teams. They are a product of their schedule. WASH has lost to @TB, @BALT & vs PITT. They have beaten NYG, @CINNCY, @ARZ, CLEV, CAR, CHI & @NYG. ARZ has turned things around but, we’ll see. CINNCY has a tall mountain to climb to get to the playoffs. But the others are wins vs bad teams and losses to playoff teams. PHILLY is a playoff team and WASH is finding out who they are. WASH CB Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this game after not playing vs PITT. He was acquired by WASH to add strength to the secondary. But he may not be ready to go on TNF. PHILLY #6 TOT OFF w/#2 RUSH OFF & #20 PASS OFF. PHILLY has a more balanced and more experienced group of players then WASH has on OFF. WASH #4 TOT OFF w/#4 RUSH OFF & #11 PASS OFF. WASH had been relying more on QB Jayden Daniels to get yardage on the ground but that is a recipe for disaster and he suffered those bruised ribs. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts only takes off when he sees an opening and knows he can get yardage. Also, he doesn’t take unnecessary chances. Plus, RB Saquon Barkley is a great alternative. WASH #28 RUSH DEF as opposed to PHILLY #5 RUSH DEF. This is one reason why I like PHILLY to win @HOME and cover on TNF. They are more of a complete team as WASH is just learning how to win. WASH hasn’t beaten anyone yet and PHILLY has a team that knows how to win. Plus, PHILLY will limit how many yards WASH gets on the ground and they will limit Daniels from taking off. Lay the points here as PHILLY should roll.
THE PICK: PHILLY-3 ½
Sunday November 17th, 2024 1:00pm
Green Bay Packers (6-3), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-5), (5-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS CHI+6
GB is coming off a bye but before that they were manhandled @HOME by DET. DET won this game on both sides of the ball and DET could have scored more points if they wanted to. The score was DET 24-3 late in the 3rd qtr when GB scored a fg and then a td very late in the 4th qtr to make the final score, DET 24-14. But DET had control of this game even though DET did not sack GB QB Jordan Love 1x. He was playing with his groin injury and the stats for GB are all in catchup. LW, CHI didn’t look good at all @HOME vs NE. All of a sudden CHI is a 6 ½ pt HOME FAV vs anybody is a little ridiculous. I felt strongly that it would be a closer game for NE and I liked NE plus the points. CHI punted 4x & kicked a fg in the 1st half and found themselves trailing 13-3 at the half. The 2nd half didn’t get much better as CHI punted 4x and turned the ball over on downs 2x. NE won 19-3. NE rushed for 144yds on 35yds. CHI played catchup in this game to no avail. CHI QB Caleb Williams was sacked 9x vs NE. The O-Line for CHI is a disaster. L17 GB @CHI, GB 13-4 SU & 13-4 ATS. L26 GB vs CHI, GB 21-5 ATS. L27 GB vs CHI, ROAD 15-12 ATS. GB 15-26-1 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. GB 28-25 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. GB 31-41-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 39-41 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 6-10 ATS as a ROAD FAV 6>pts. GB 17-8-1 ATS w/rest. CHI 19-19 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. CHI 10-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CHI 47-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 32-30-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 27-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 9-13 ATS before MINN. CHI 8-13 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 15-0 ATS as a HOME DOG >4pts off BB SU losses. CHI 0-5 ATS w/conf revenge off SU FAV loss. CHI 2-13 ATS w/revenge off SU FAV loss. CHI 1-8 ATS L9 off SU FAV loss. CHI 2-6 ATS L8 after non-conf HOME gm. GB is in bounceback mode and still trying to battle MINN for a playoff spot. Forget chasing DET, they will easily win the NFC NORTH unless they have a total meltdown. But the battle for a wild card out of this division is still up for grabs and GB has to keep winning. As for CHI, they need to find some consistency and better protection for QB Caleb Williams. Williams has been sacked 38x in 9games. GB #12 TOT DEF w/#10 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. Those are consistent numbers on DEF with 22sacks & 10INTs as well. GB does get to the QB and they do put pressure in the right situation but they need to keep winning. CHI has an emerging team but they fired their OC this week. Plus they waived an OG. Does it change things? It actually makes the O-LINE weaker. CHI looks like they have Hail Mary hangover. They haven’t done anything right since the Hail Mary loss @WASH. You look at the sidelines of CHI before the play and after and it tells the story without knowing the score. Considering that GB is on a bounceback it probably just confuses things more for CHI. Also, GB QB Jordan Love should be feeling a lot better with his groin and will be at full strength. Lay the points here as GB bounces back and rolls to victory.
THE PICK: GB-6
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8), (5-4-1) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (2-2-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (8-1), (7-1-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS JAGS+14
LW on SNF, DET was @HOU and spotted HOU a 23-7 halftime lead. I liked DET-3 in this game and at the half it didn’t look good. I knew that DET would make some adjustments at halftime as good teams usually do even if they are winning. The 2nd half was a different story as the DET DEF shut down HOU and DET scored 19 straight pts for a 26-23 win. However, in this game, DET QB Jared Goff had 5INTS that HOU turned into 10pts. Luckily it wasn’t worse and the DET DEF has gotten much better since the beginning of the season. DET shut down the HOU run game and held HOU RB Joe Mixon to 26yds & 1td on 25carries. DET got the winning fg with 0:00 left on the clock after HOU missed a long fg to try to take the lead. LW, JAGS @HOME were in this game until the end. I liked MINN as the ROAD FAV-4 but this game could have easily gone the other way because MINN QB Sam Darnold threw 2picks right around the endzone. Fortunately for MINN, Mac Jones was @QB for JAGS replacing injured Trevor Lawrence. Jones was his usual terrible self with 2INTs & a lost fumble. Good to see Jones still hasn’t learned anything about ball control. JAGS rushed for a paltry 56yds while giving up 169yds on the ground to MINN. MINN managed 4fgs while JAGS managed 1td in this mistake ridden game for a MINN 12-7 win. L6 JAGS vs DET, JAGS 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS. JAGS 8-9 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. JAGS 27-24-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. JAGS 41-33-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. JAGS 12-11-1 ATS as a DOG >10pts. JAGS 6-19 ATS as a non-conf DOG >3pts. JAGS 4-19 ATS as a non-conf DOG off SU loss. DET 36-41 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 27-26-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 6-6 ATS as a FAV 7>pts @HOME vs non-div. This has the makings of a major blowout. JAGS don’t do anything right and Mac Jones will be the starter for JAGS at least for the next two games. This game should be a tune up for DET to get their OFF & DEF running back on track like a well oiled machine. JAGS #32 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #30 PASS DEF vs DET #7 TOT OFF w/#7 RUSH OFF & #14 PASS OFF. This game should be a fantasy football dream for people. DET RBs, Montgomery & Gibbs should both have over 100yds rushing each and at least 3tds. DET QB Jared Goff should have a couple of tds throwing and there should be at least 1return td either on DEF or special teams for DET. JAGS QB Mac Jones was a disaster in NE and hasn’t done much in JAGS except warm the bench. Overall, JAGS have taken some major steps backwards after making the playoffs in 2022. Last season started out promising but JAGS ended up being bad. Now JAGS are pitiful and teams look at them as a chance to work things out and get back on track. After DET QB Goff had such a bad game and DET still won, look for him to correct his own ship. Don’t be surprised if DET puts up 50pts in this game as DET HC Dan Cambpell is not one to take the metal off the pedal. I love DET laying the points here.
THE PICK: DET-14
Minnesota Vikings (7-2), (7-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @Tennessee Titans (2-7), (1-8) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS TENN+6
LW, MINN won by a hair @JAGS 12-7. MINN QB Sam Darnold had 3INTS and JAGS were in this until the end. MINN RB tandem of Cam Akers & Aaron Jones rushed for 126yds on 30 carries. This game was a comedy of errors for both teams. MINN managed only 4fgs vs JAGS without QB Trevor Lawrence. JAGS could have won it at the end but QB Mac Jones threw an INT with 1:57 left that sealed the game for MINN. LW, TENN was a DOG+7 ½ @LAC. I was a little worried because that is 2scores. I felt LAC was going to win but, by how much? TENN did score a td on their 1st drive but didn’t score another td until the end of the game. By that point it was LAC 27-10 and the final was then 27-17. TENN does have some talented receivers even after WR DeAndre Hopkins was traded but the team can’t win. The DEF couldn’t stop the LAC OFF and that was the difference here. Plus, TENN QB Will Levis was sacked 7x which greatly alters your game plans. L5 MINN vs JAGS, MINN 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS. MINN 25-9-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 18-4 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MINN 36-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 36-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 11-10 ATS before CHI. MINN 10-11 ATS & 14-7 ATS L21 AWAY outdoors vs non-div. MINN 19-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 6-9 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. MINN 7-1-1 ATS L9 non-conf ROAD gms. TENN 18-13 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. TENN 11-12-1 ATS before HOU. TENN 26-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. TENN 33-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 13-4 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. TENN 11-3 ATS as a DOG vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MINN QB Sam Darnold his reverting back to his old bad ways. He has 5INTs in the last 2games. Fortunately for MINN, they won both games but, by the skin of their teeth. TENN is a just a bad team that has been cherry picked by other teams looking to make a run in the playoffs. After the season, TENN needs to look at evaluations on every position on the team. TENN has a good RB in Tony Pollard but MINN #2 RUSH DEF will put it all on QB Will Levis. Levis is in the learning stage of his career @TENN and doesn’t have the tools necessary @TENN to be successful. He had a pretty good game for him LW @LAC but it was in catchup mode and LAC was in command of the game. The DEF for TENN, which was highly noted in the past, has only 18sacks & 3INTs. All 3INTS are by S Amani Hooker. TENN is decent vs the rush, TENN #13 RUSH DEF. But even against LAC, TENN Gave up over 100yds to their RB tandem and let LAC QB Justin Herbert rush for 32yds on 9carries & 1td. I have to like MINN in this game getting their OFF back in order and burying TENN. MINN is playing for a wild card spot in the NFC NORTH behind DET. No one is catching DET in the division so MINN needs to keep winning to secure at least some sort of seed for the playoffs. Lay the points here as MINN rolls.
THE PICK: MINN-6
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-6), (3-5-1) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-3-1) ATS LV+7 ½
LW on MNF, I liked MIA+ 1 ½ @LAR because MIA was desperate to turn their season around or otherwise it was over. A 2-7 record is much harder to climb that 3-6. MIA stopped the LAR cold and limited them to 5fgs while winning the game 23-15. MIA didn’t get much of a run game but didn’t need it as the MIA DEF held LAR and sacked LAR QB Matthew Stafford 4x. MIA brought out all the tricks when they had WR Malik Washington do an end around for 18yds and a td. LV coming off a bye. Before that they played @CINNCY. This game was 10-10 in the 2nd qtr and V looked good and you thought they would give CINNCY a run for their money. Well, CINNCY scored three straight tds and it was now 31-10 in the 3rd qtr and the game was over. LV tried to comeback as CINNCY padded their lead to 41-17 but the LV DEF couldn’t stop Burrow & CO. The final was CINNCY 41-24 as LV scored a dummy td with :41 left in the game. LV QB were sacked 5x and the run game for LV amounted to a paltry 60yds. L12 LV vs MIA, LV 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS. LV 6-10-1 ATS since 2007 wk after bye. LV 11-11 ATS before DEN. LV 40-32-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 43-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 8-9-1 ATS L18 w/rest. LV 6-9-1 ATS L16 vs AFC EAST. LV 13-8 ATS vs non div opp when a DOG 7>pts. LV 7-12-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LV 8-5 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SU DOG win. LV 10-9 ATS vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. MIA 11-10 ATS before NE. MIA 10-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MIA 39-29-2 ATS @HOM Ein NOV. MIA 35-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 16-9 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. LW, MIA may have saved their season. MIA needs to keep winning if they have any chance at getting to the playoffs and making a deep run. I think if MIA does a 1and done, HC Mike McDaniels may be gone. MIA RB Raheem Mostert didn’t rush any on MNF but he brings value to a backfield that is run by committee. Look for him to get touches in the backfield vs LV. LV #22 RUSH DEF. LV doesn’t scare anyone in this category and MIA should rush as much as they can to take pressure off of Tua to drop passes all over the place. He spread the ball around to 8different receivers on MNF and that is what kept the LAR DEF guessing. He needs to do it again. LV has a DEF that has many holes and only a couple of guys do any work while the rest just stand around. LV is just a bad team and MIA is starting to come together to make their run to the playoffs. This is two teams going in opposite directions. LV needs a lot of help everywhere starting with a QB. Gardner Minshew is certainly not the answer but giving Desmond Ridder the reins for the rest of the season is an option to see what he has. I’ll bet LV DE Maxx Crosby wishes he was on a better team. MIA is looking to get their team in sync and this is the game to do it. The MIA OFF started to click last week @LAR and they should be full throttle this week vs LV. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: MIA-7 ½
Los Angeles Rams (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (3-7), (4-5-1) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-2-1) ATS NE+4 ½
LW on MNF, I liked MIA+1 ½ @AR. A lot of people liked LAR but I liked MIA for certain reasons and they came through because MIA needed the win more than LAR. LAR WRs Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp had ½ of all the receptions with 16catches for 178yds but 0tds. LAR QB Matthew Stafford had a decent day but an INT turned into 3pts for MIA in a tight game that was won by MIA, 23-15. The MIA DEF came up BIG in this game and allowed LAR 0tds. Plus, MIA sacked Stafford 4x. LW, I liked NE+6 ½ @CHI. Is CHI that good to be considered a 6 ½ FAV vs anyone? Certainly not. I thought the spread was too much and that NE might find a way to win. NE won 19-3 and the DEF for NE sacked CHI QB Caleb Williams 9x. NE rushed over CHI for 144yds on 35carries which kept the ball away from CHI. NE stopped CHI all over and forced them to punt 8x. NE QB Drake Maye had a decent day passing 15/25 for 184yds, 1td & 1INT. L5 LAR vs NE, LAR 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. LAR 19-16-1 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 28-34-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 24-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAR 12-14 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 11-12-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. LAR 12-4 ATS as a FAV 13<pts off an SU loss. LAR 6-0 ATS as a FAV <7pts vs opp off SU DOG win. LAR 16-6 ATS vs <.333opp. LAR 11-3 ATS AWAY vs <.333opp. LAR 1-7 ATS L8 vs AFC EAST. 0-5 ATS L5 as a non-conf ROAD FAV 2>pts. NE 7-10-2 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. NE 11-10 ATS before MIA. NE 32-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 32-19 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 12-4-2 ATS as a DOG after allowing 10<pts. NE 19-6-1 ATS afer SU non-div DOG win. NE 11-3-2 ATS @HOME afrter allowing 10<pts. NE 20-8-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. LAR is on a bounceback after a loss @HOME to MIA on MNF. NE beat CHI, so what. CHI has had a hangover sine the Hail Mary @WASH. CHI has no O-LINE and getting to CHI QB Caleb Williams is easy as pie. LAR has a better O-LINE and LAR QB Matthew Stafford has only been sacked 21x in 9games. Putting pressure on Stafford is no easy task as he has a lot of experience reading DEFs. NE #23 RUSH DEF. Even though LAR is more of a pass 1st run 2nd kind of team, RB Kyren Williams can get going against certain teams. He has had some good games vs some teams and that takes a lot of pressure off of Stafford. With a healthy Cooper Kupp & Puca Nacua leading the way @WR, it SHOULD be easy pickings for LAR on a bounceback. NE had a nice win last week @CHI but that is what NE should be doing against bad teams. NE ran over CHI and passed over them like they weren’t there. The DEF for LAR has to play BIG in this game. They can’t just wait for Maye to make throws, they have to put pressure on him. The LAR DEF has only 2INTs and they need to create some turnovers in this game. They cannot let NE control the tempo of the game. Take LAR on a bounceback and hope that LAR HC Sean McVay doesn’t go too conservative and let NE think they have a shot in this game. LAR should win by a td.
THE PICK: LAR-4 ½
Cleveland Browns (2-7), (3-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CLEV+1
CLEV is coming off their bye and before that they had no answers @HOME vs LAC. This was after playing a good game & a win @HOME vs BALT. CLEV came up lame vs LAC and the score almost doesn’t reflect how bad it was for CLEV. LAC was winning 27-3 when CLEV scored a dummy td with :44 left to make the final score LAC 27-10. But LAC dominated on all fronts and CLEV played catchup the whole game. LW, NO was @HOME vs ATL. ATL has been on a roll but NO played very tough and never trailed in this game. NO got out to a 10-0 lead and watched as ATL played catchup to no avail. It was 10-7, 17-7, 17-10, 20-10 and the final NO 20-17. The star for NO was definitely newly acquired WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling who caught 3passes for 109yds & 2tds. NO QB Derek Carr had a good day passing for 16/25, 269yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. He was sacked 0x. With no pressure and a rushing game of about 80 yards, Carr can be very effective. I liked ATL in this game because I said ATL needed to put pressure on Carr, ATL didn’t and they lost. L5 CLEV vs NO, CLEV 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS. CLEV 7-9-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. CLEV 33-26 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEV 24-38 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 3-7-1 ATS before TNF. NO 7-10 ATS after ATL. NO 11-6 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. NO 13-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NO 4-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs vs non-div opp NO 39-34-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 33-32-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 11-20-1 ATS L32 @HOME vs AFC. NO 5-14 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC. NO 1-10 TS @HOME vs AFC NORTH. NO 15-9 ATS off SU DOG win. These are two more teams that are not going anywhere this season. CLEV has to make some decisions about QB Deshaun Watson in the off-season and NO has to find a viable HC. NO should do a total evaluation of every position and every player on the roster. CLEV needs to decide how they want to proceed at the QB position. QB Jameis Winston is starting for CLEV but he is not the long term solution. You really don’t know what you get every game with Winston. CLEV has talented players but they don’t always show up. They have already traded some players that may have helped them had CLEV been contending for a playoff spot. But, since they are so bad, why pay for losses? This is a game that could go either way. I didn’t expect NO to win their 1st game under new HC Darren Rizzi. But can they ride the wave with this guy and actually have a respectable season? CLEV has 1INT on DEF this season and they already traded their 2nd leading sacker DE Za’Darius Smith away. That leaves DE Myles Garrett out there to be double teamed. This game is a toss up and it has no bearing on any payoff pictures but both teams could be spoilers down the season. I like NO because they are at HOME & NO Alvin Kamara is a good bet to have a better game than he did vs ATL. CLEV is not as good vs the run this season as they were in 2023 so I’m looking at NO getting their run game going to take pressure off of QB Derek Carr. Also, CLEV #2 PASS DEF in 2023, #13 PASS DEF in 2024. I like NO winning by a fg or more.
THE PICK: NO-1
Indianapolis Colts (4-6), (5-4-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New York Jets (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS INDY+4
LW, NYJ were a FAV-1 ½ @ARZ. I liked ARZ in this game and NYJ couldn’t do anything right. NYJ produced 2fgs and the NYJ DEF couldn’t stop ARZ from finding the endzone. On DEF for NYJ, they can’t tackle and guys were escaping and gaining more yards. They can’t cover anyone because ARZ QB Kyler Murray completed 22/24 passes for 266yds. He was sacked 1x but he spread the ball around to 7different receivers. ARZ also ran over the NYJ DEF with 147yds & 3tds on 32 carries. The NYJ DEF created 0turnovers and it was a 31-6 loss. LW, did anyone think that INDY @HOME was going to beat BUFF. This was a game of mistakes for both teams and it could have been closer but INDY QB Joe Flacco was a one man burial squad. He had 3INTS & 1lost fumb that BUFF turned into 17pts. In turn BUFF QB Josh Allen had 2INTS but INDY only turned them into 3pts. INDY was actually leading 13-10 in the 2nd qtr but BUFF turned on their DEF and INDY didn’t score any more points until a dummy td with :02 left which made the final score BUFF 30-20. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed for 114yds on 21carries but had 0tds. L8 INDY vs NYJ, INDY 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS. INDY 42-22-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 37-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. INDY 29=15-1 ATS as a DOG >1pts off SU loss. INDY 9-12 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 3-8 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SUATS loss. INDY 15-7 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 7-2 ATS L9 vs AFC EAST . NYJ 11-6 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NYJ 34-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 23-31 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYJ 6-16 ATS off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-10 ATS L20 after scoring <10pts. NYJ 2-9 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off SU FAV loss. NYJ 0-12 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div conf opp. NYJ 10-5 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ 12-12 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. Both of these teams are going nowhere. INDY QB Joe Flacco should know better but he is falling back into bad habits. NYJ are just a bunch of overhyped and overrated players who talk the talk but can’t walk the walk. Every week we hear the same thing from NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers and nothing changes. He gets older by the week and he doesn’t make the plays needed to win games. So they beat HOU, so what. INDY #14 RUSH OFF vs NYJ #24 RUSH DEF. INDY should run the ball until the NYJ DEF just falls down. They cannot stop the run and INDY should run like hell and then drop passes all over the place. I can guarantee that Flacco will not have 4turnovers in this game. QB Anthony Richardson has been installed as the starter for INDY going forward. He is a runner first, then a passer. I still like INDY as the PICK here because INDY is desperate for a win and NYJ is terrible. These are two bad teams no matter what NYJ say. When two bad teams are playing each other, take the team with the points. By the way, NYJ LB Hasson Reddick hasn’t done jack in 3games. If NYJ find a way to win it will be by a fg. Take INDY & the points.
THE PICK: INDY+4
Baltimore Ravens (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), (7-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS PITT+3
LW, PITT was a DOG+3 @WASH. I thought WASH would win and cover and I was looking good at WASH up 24-14. But PITT fought back and had some turnovers of their own that WASH couldn’t capitalize on and PITT was winning 28-27. Then WASH committed an offsides infraction and the game was over with PITT getting the hard fought 28-27 win. PITT QB Russell Wilson had a another solid game with 14/28 passing for 195yds, 3tds & 1INT. PITT RBs Jaylen Warren & Najee Harris combined for 119yds & 1td on 35carries. On TNF, BALT @HOME had their hands full vs CINNCY. CINNCY is fighting for their playoff lives with every game and CINNCY stormed out to a 21-7 lead in the 3rd qtr. But BALT fought back for 35-28 lead late in the 4th qtr with 1:49 to go. However CINNCY put together a drive that culminated with a td but missed the 2pt conversion that would have probably won the game for CINNCY at 36-35. Instead BALT survived 35-34. BALT couldn’t stop CINNCY QB Joe Burrow who passed for 4tds & 428yds while CINNCY WR Ja’Marr Chase caught 11passes for 264yds & 3tds. BALT QB Lamar Jackson also threw for 4tds while RB Derrick Henry added 68yds & 1td on 16carries. L17 BALT @PITT, BALT 7-10 SU & 8-7-2 ATS. L34 PITT vs BALT, BALT 14-17-2 ATS 1NL. L26 BALT vs PITT, BALT 11-13-1 ATS1NL. L34 BALT vs PITT, DOG 21-9-2 ATS !PICK’EM. L32 BALT vs PITT, ROAD 20-10-2 ATS. BALT 12-4-1 ATS after CINCCY. BALT 11-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. BALT 45-34-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 32-27-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 35-29-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 7-5 ATS L12 as a div FAV 6<pts. BALT 14-7 ATS as a FAV >1pt w/rest. BALT 4-4 ATS as a FAV <4pts in 1st of BB RGs. PITT 10-9 ATS before CLEV. PITT 27-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 36-25-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 35-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 25-9 ATS as a DOG vs >.500opp. PITT 11-2-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp w/revenge. PITT 12-2 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs >.500opp. The DEF for BALT is overrated and I don’t care what the stats say and where they are ranked. The secondary for BALT is terrible and BALT as a team gives up a lot of yards & points in the 4th qtr. They cannot stop anyone no matter who they are playing. PITT QB Russell Wilson is 3-0 since he stepped in for Justin Fields. The OFF is more balanced and the RBs of Warren & Harris are being used wisely as the 1-2 punch. This takes so much pressure off of Wilson who tends to make more mistakes in his later years when he is pressured than when he was younger and could just take off running. PITT HC Mike Tomlin does nothing but win games no matter who the QB is. He puts together a game plan that the players believe in and they get it done. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs PITT #4 RUSH DEF. This is the matchup worth watching because you know BAT is going to try to run and run heavy vs PITT with Henry & Jackson. But PITT won’t flinch and this will be a tighter game than expected because most of the guys on both teams have been here before. Both teams know what’s at stake and I don’t see either team winning in blowout fashion. I believe it will come down to a fg at the end. Plus, with the home crowd behind PITT, the place will be jumping. I like PITT & the points.
THE PICK: PITT+3
Sunday November 17th, 2024 4:00pm
Atlanta Falcons (6-4), (5-5) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (5-5), (6-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS DEN+1
LW, DEN was +8 @KC. I liked DEN BIG TIME in this matchup for many reasons. I knew they would play KC close because this season KC is winning ugly. They don’t cover spreads 6>pts. Also, DEN was on a major rebound from the beating the got @BALT. DEN had a chance to win but their fg was blocked at the end for a 16-14 loss. This was a very tight game and DEN held KC to 1td & 3fgs. I give kudos to the DEN DEF and to the DEN OFF for not turning the ball over. DEN QB Bo Nix had a pretty good day with 22/30 passing, 215yds, 2tds, 0INTS and he spread the ball around to 8different receivers. Just when you think ATL is on a roll, they come back down to Earth. The usually reliable and amazing K Younghoe Koo missed 3fgs which was the difference in this game. Even with the missed fgs, ATL was still in this game and could have won. ATL RBs Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier combined for 175yds & 2tds on 31 carries but the ATL DEF couldn’t stop a recently signed NO WR Marquez Valdez Scantling for 3receptions of 109yds & 2tds. He was the difference in this game. L5 ATL vs DEN, ATL 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. ATL 11-15 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 7-10 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. ATL 10-15 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ATL 36-29-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 36-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 10-11 ATS after NO. ATL 8-3 ATS as a non-conf FAV. ATL 8-19-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. DEN 21-11 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. DEN 14-6 ATS after KC. DEN 8-0 ATS L8 after KC. DEN 4-8-1 ATS before LV. DEN 45-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 29-24 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 16-2 ATS as a HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 13-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG off div gm. DEN went up against KC and stopped them cold. DEN #5 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. DEN has 35 sacks and 7INTS. The DEN DEF makes plays when they need them and keeps them in the games. KC is better than ATL and the book on ATL QB Kirk Cousins is just put pressure on him and he will make turnovers. That is probably what is being told to the DEN DEF all week. DEN is a tough team and getting better every week. DEN is a team on the rise and where ATL stands from week to week, no one knows. I am not that impressed with ATL because their wins have not been that convincing, they have been very close. I like DEN here for many reasons but their DEF is the main reason and Bo Nix is making good decisions and spreading the ball around.
THE PICK: DEN+1
Seattle Seahawks (4-5), (3-5-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS SEA+7
LW, SF was a ROAD FAV-6 @TB. I liked TB because they play tough even with all the injuries. I was helped with my pick because SF K Jake Moody missed 3fgs which altered the game and kept it close. SF had other mishaps like a botched punt return which TB turned into a td. SF could not get their run game going and rushed for 75yds on 22carries & 0tds. SF needed a fg with :00 to win 23-20. SEA is coming off their bye. But before that they lost @HOME in OT to LAR 26-20. SEA was up in that game 13-3 but couldn’t do anything as the LAR DEF just shut down the SEA OFF. SEA scored a td with :51 left to send the game into OT where SEA didn’t make a 4th down play and LAR took 4plays to go 83yds and a td to win. SEA QB Geno Smith had 3INTS which LAR turned into 7pts. L17 SEA @SF, SEA 9-8 SU & 8-8-1 ATS . L25 SEA vs SF, SEA 14-10-1 ATS. L21 SEA vs SF, FAV 15-6 ATS. L5 SF vs SEA, SF 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. SEA 6-10-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. SEA 7-13 ATS before ARZ. SEA 29-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 26-26 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 28-24 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 2-5 ATS w/rest. SF 29-40-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 38-41 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 23-31 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SF 5-11 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp w/revenge. SF 4-8 ATS @HOME off SU win vs<.500opp. SF 7-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. These two teams met in wk 6 on TNF @SEA with SF winning 36-24. In that game, SF took a 23-3 lead but started screwing around and before you knew it, it was SF 23-17. SF got serious and scored 2tds in the 4th qtr while SEA also scored a td for the SF win. SF #2 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #2 PASS OFF vs SEA #24 TOT W/#26 RUSH DEF  PASS DEF. SF RB Christian McCaffrey is getting up to speed and had the game vs TB to get warmed up. Look for him to be more involved in the OFF in this game. SEA has lost 5out of their last 6games and have only won @ATL in that stretch. Also, both of these teams have had problems scoring from the redzone but with McCaffrey coming back, it adds a whole new dimension to the SF OFF. SEA started off well in 2024 but the DEF has not made any adjustments in games to stop opposing OFFs. They have been picked apart and teams have scored when they wanted. SF QB Brock Purdy should have a field day in this game. I like SF to win BIG here after their missed opportunity win @TB.
THE PICK: SF-7
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0), (4-4-1) ATS, (4-0) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (8-2), (7-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (3-1) ATS KC+2 ½
LW, KC as a HOME FAV-8 vs DEN. I liked DEN in this game to keep it close. I didn’t say DEN would win but I did say they would keep it close. DEN did a great job and should have won but KC blocked a last second fg that would have won it for DEN. The DEN DEF is tough and after getting blown out by BALT they gave all they had @KC. KC found a way to wear the DEN DEF down even if it was for 1td and 3fgs. Neither team had a turnover and KC QB Pat Mahomes spread the ball around to 9different receivers. Give DEN a lot of credit in this one for playing tough and almost pulling it out in the 16-14 loss. LW, BUFF -4 ½ as a ROAD FAV @INDY, BUFF was just toying with INDY for the first part of the game. I liked BUFF in this game to win and cover. But, INDY beat themselves with 4turnovers by INDY QB Joe Flacco where BUFF turned them into 17pts. BUFF QB Josh Allen had 2INTs but it didn’t matter as they had a 30-13 lead before INDY got a dummy td with :02 left to make the final score BUFF 30-20. BUFF did give up 114yds rushing to INDY RB Jonathan Taylor but it didn’t help INDY’s cause. L14 KC vs BUFF, (not incl playoffs) KC 6-8 SU & 4-10 ATS. KC 11-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. KC 30-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 27-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. KC 21-19-1 ATS L41 vs AFC EAST. KC 14-6 ATS after DEN. KC 20-8-2 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 11-6-1 ATS vs .700>opp. KC 4-7-1 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. KC 13-2 ATS after div gm vs .500>opp. BUFF 7-8-2 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. BUFF 37-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 33-25 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 9-14-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 8-4 ATS as a FAV vs AFC WEST. The last time these two teams met was in the divisional round of the 2023 playoffs at BUFF. BUFF was down 27-24 and was driving. BUFF had a 1st down on the KC 35yd line and all of sudden stopped pushing. They felt they had the fg in their pocket to tie. I knew they would miss any fg attempt. BUFF called some definite suspect plays and then missed the fg giving KC a 27-24 win. KC is winning ugly but, they are winning. If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. Mahomes has taken a Tom Brady approach to games. He takes it personally when KC is a DOG while he is the QB. Mahomes does nothing but win. BUFF gets nervous when they play KC. Mahomes doesn’t get nervous, he gets pumped. He’s as cool as a cucumber. The addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins is huge for KC because he never drops a pass. Mahomes takes what the DEF gives him. Allen has been known to force the ball and turn it over. After having 0INTs through the first 7games, BUFF QB Josh Allen has 4INTs in the last 3games. How many will he have this game? KC #4 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #14 PASS DEF. KC DC Steve Spagnuolo is a master at disguising the DEF so you don’t know what’s coming. Allen will see things that weren’t there last season or even this season. KC should get their running game going in this one. KC getting points is like a Christmas gift come early. Take KC & the points.
THE PICK: KC+2 ½
Sunday November 17th, 2024 8:20pm
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (5-0) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), (6-2-1) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-0-1) ATS CINNCY+1 ½
On TNF, CINNCY was up 21-7 in the 3rd qtr and they let BALT come storming back to take a 35-28 lead. CINNCY put together a great drive to score a td with under a minute to go but missed the 2pt conversion for the win and lost 35-34. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was on fire with 34/56, 428yd passing, 4tds &0INTS. The run game was not going with a paltry 49yds on 16carries. CINNCY WR Ja’Marr Chase caught 11passes for 264yds &3tds. But the BALT OFF couldn’t be stopped with their more balanced attack in the CINNCY loss. LW, LAC was a HOME FAV-7 ½ vs TENN. LAC was up 27-10 before TENN got a dummy td with :49 left to make it a 27-17 final. But, I have to say a BIG SO WHAT! This is because TENN is not very good and this is what was expected. LAC QB Justin Herbert was not sacked but LAC DEFs sacked TENN QB Will Levis 7x. They need to put that kind of pressure on CINNCY QB Joe Burrow. LAC RBs Gus Edwards & JK Dobins each rushed for 50 yds which takes a lot of pressure off of Herbert. But vs CINNCY, LAC can’t take the pedal off the metal, they need to keep attacking. L9 CINNCY vs LAC, CINNCY 4-5 but 6-2-1 ATS. CINNCY 10-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. CINNCY 17-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 1-3-1 ATS as a DOG on SNF. CINNCY 2-4-1 ATS AWAY on SNF. CINNCY 2-2-1 ATS on SNF vs non-div. CINNCY 37-22-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 46-39-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 20-6-1 ATS L27 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 13-2 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 7-6-1 ATS as a DOG w/rest. CINNCY 11-7-1 ATS after BALT. CINNCY 10-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off BB SU wins. CINNCY 9-9-1 ATS w/rest. CINNCY 6-5 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 10-0 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU wins. LAC 8-9 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. LAC 8-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. LAC 15-15 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 7-14-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. LAC 29-37 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 29-40 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 4-17 ATS vs opp w/rest. This is a very pivotal game for CINNCY. Every game is important for them but who has CINNCY beaten? They have beaten @CAR, @NYG, @CLEV & LV. Those are teams that will not be playing any football past the 1st week in January. CINNCY has lost to NE, @KC, WASH, BALT, PHILLY & @BALT. Two of those games were by 1pt but, they are still losses and they had chances to win in both of them. LAC is on a 3game win streak. They haven’t beaten playoff caliber teams either with wins vs NO, @CLEV & TENN. But the DEF for LAC is better than BALT. LAC #6 TOT DEF w/#9 PASS DEF. LAC doesn’t give up a lot of points no matter who they play and LAC HC Jim Harbaugh is a very disciplined coach. The DEF for LAC has 31sacks & 9INTs. They get after the ball and create turnovers. CINNCY is desperate for wins and is looking to ride into the playoffs but I don’t see that happening this season. LAC has a chance to beat a good team here and at least have a chance at landing in the #2 spot in the AFC WEST and getting into the playoffs if they don’t start losing. LAC QB Justin Herbert needs to spread the ball around to keep the CINNCY DEF guessing. LAC RBs Gus Edwards & JK Dobins need to get going to tire out the CINNCY DEF. In turn, CINNCY has no reliable running game. LAC #9 RUSH DEF. I like LAC in almost a PICK’EM game here. There can be no let up for LAC on either side of the ball if they want to be considered as turning the corner. LAC should win by a fg or more here.
THE PICK: LAC-1 ½
Monday November 18th, 2024 8:15pm
Houston Texans (6-4), (3-5-2) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-2-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-6), (3-6) ATS, (0-4) HOME, (0-4) ATS DAL+7 ½
On SNF, HOU was a HOME DOG+3 vs DET. I liked DET in this game but HOU was looking good with a 23-7 halftime lead. But DET slammed the door shut on HOU and rallied back for a 26-23 win. The DET DEF limited HOU to 4punts 2INTS & 1missed fg in the 2nd half while going on a 19-0 run. HOU QB CJ Stroud was sacked 4x the run game didn’t help out either. LW, I thought DAL as a HOMEDOG+7 would just keep it close vs PHILLY. I didn’t think DAL would win but, just keep it close. It was close until the 2nd qtr, then PHILLY ran away with it with 27unanswered points for a 34-6 win. PHILLY ran over and passed over DAL at every turn and it could have been worse. The only bright side for the DAL DEF was that they sacked PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts 5x and they did turn a Hurts fumble into 3pts. It should have been a td but mistakes were everywhere for DAL. Changes will be made in the off-season. L5 HOU vs DAL, HOU 1-4 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. HOU 3-8-1 ATS on MNF. HOU 2-1 ATS as a FAV on MNF. HOU 2-5 ATS on MNF vs opp off SU loss. HOU 6-9-2 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 6-17-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 24-17-4 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 15-14-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 4-14 ATS AWAY vs non-conf opp. HOU 2-11 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. DAL 12-10-1 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. DAL 2-8 ATS @HOME on MNF. DAL 9-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DAL14-9-1 ATS before WASH. DAL 46-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 22-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 8-11 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DAL 17-7-1 ATS as a non conf DOG <8pts. DAL 12-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts vs opp off SU loss. DAL 9-25-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 3-7 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss vs .500>opp. DAL 9-8 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. HOU is coming off a game where they were up 23-7 at the half and lost 26-23. Do you think they are angry? Do you think they will give DAL all they can? There are multiple DAL players that have already said they are gone after the season. Well, that means that their mind set is already gone too and they will be playing not to get injured. DAL has checked out and the house will be cleaned after the season. Don’t think for one minute that DAL is making the playoffs. They have a zero running game, they can’t tackle and they can’t defend. DAL QB Cooper Rush is a good backup but owner Jerry Jones made a big blunder with QB Dak Prescott & WR Ceedee Lamb. HOU is looking to get bacjk to their winning ways and will throw everything but the kitchen sink at DAL. They will get their run game going again after RB Joe Mixon had a subpar game vs DET. HOU #18 RUSH OFF vs DAL #31 RUSH DEF. HOU can’t get too overly excited about this game but stick to a game plan that keeps scoring points every time they get the ball. HOU WR I still questionable for this game but if he plays, DAL will have a tough time covering anyone. They are pretty bad vs the pass too. DAL #18 PASS DEF. If HOU can’t beat DAL badly, then they are not for real. HOU is on a serious bounceback here. Lay the points here as HOU gets back on track and DAL goes deeper into the abyss.
THE PICK: HOU-7 ½
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