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2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 4

2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 4 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday September 26th, 2024 8:15pm

Dallas Cowboys (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ New York Giants (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                    NYG+4 ½  

LW, DAL @HOME was ripe for the pickings by BALT. I said to everyone and on my Twitter show that BALT was not going 0-3. BALT was up 28-6 in the 4th qtr when DAL made a game of it in catchup mode. But, to no avail and the final score was BALT 28-25. DAL could not run the ball against BALT at all. BALT has always been good vs the run and they proved it in this game. DAK’s stats for this game are a little overblown because it was all in catchup mode and BALT was playing a little lax in the 4th qtr. LW, NYG was a heavy DOG, +6 ½ @CLEV. I definitely thought CLEV righted their ship the previous week @JAGS. The game started out as if that was true after NYG spotted CLEV a 7-0 lead after a botched kickoff turned into a td. But, from then on the NYG DEF stymied a CLEV OFF that is loaded with talent. It was the NYG show as they scored 21straight points until CLEVE scored a dummy td in the 4th qtr to make the final score NYG 21-15. Was it the play calling by the CLEV OFF or the revived NYG DEF? The NYG DEF sacked CLEV QB Deshaun Watson 8x. NYG QB Daniel Jones looked very good with 0turnovers and threw for 2tds in the process. CLEV could not run the ball but NYG managed to rush for 112yds and 1td. L17 DAL @NYG, DAL 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS. L30 DAL vs NYG, ROAD 16-13-1 ATS. L14 DAL vs NYG, DAL 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS. DAL 6-8 ATS on TNF. DAL 3-2 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU win. DAL 4-2 ATS AWAY on TNF. DAL 23-13-1 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 16-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DAL 38-22-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DA 32-38-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 30-19 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. DAL 26-10 ATS as a DIV FAV >2pts. NYG 10-6 ATS on TNF. NYG 3-1 ATS @HOME on TNF. NYG 8-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYG 21-42 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYG 33-33-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 24-23-2 ATS vs NFC EAST in SEPT. NYG 18-12 ATS as a DIV DOG 4>pts. NYG 17-24-1 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. NYG 5-0 ATS L5 off DD ATS win. This is a desperation game for DAL. They cannot afford to go 1-3. There is too much talent on this team for them to have a losing record. If DAL doesn’t make the playoffs as so many have predicted, Owner Jerry Jones will clean house. NYG won LW because CLEVE doesn’t know who they are. CLEV actually looked better last season with Joe Flacco as their QB. QB Deshaun Watson doesn’t look right and NYG took full advantage of it. NYG might all of a sudden they could beat anyone. Well, they have a long way to go before doing that and DAL will be playing this game on all cylinders to get back to 2-2. I like DAL in this game to bring NYG back down to Earth and show the world who they really are. NYG has some good players but as a whole they gifts on silver platters to win ball games. LW was a gift and this week they face a DAL team that is on the hot seat to get back to winning. However, there may be some revenge on the minds of NYG for the two big losses that NYG endured vs DAL last season. In their two meetings DAL beat NYG 40-0 & 49-17. NYG & the coaching staff may be thinking about it but DAL may be extra focused in this one. It’s a tough combination. Also, the DAL DEF needs to step up. They have stopped the comparisons of LB Micah Parson with DE Lawrence Taylor. Taylor could do everything while Parsons BIG contribution is sometimes sacking the QB. Because DAL is in desperation, I like them to bring their A game and beat up on NYG. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: DAL-4 ½  

Sunday September 29th, 2024 1:00pm

New Orleans Saints (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                              NO+2 ½  

LW, the high powered OFF that we have seen week 1 & 2 by NO was completely shut down by PHILLY @NO. NO scored 47 pts & 44 pts in week 1 & 2. PHILLY kept NO out of the endzone until the 4th qtr. In turn PHILLY didn’t score a td until the 4th qtr either and it got very interesting as NO headed to the 4th with a 3-0 lead. Both teams traded tds to make the score PHILLY 15-12. However, NO should have won this game but with a  PHILLY 3rd down & 16 at their own 36 yd line & 1:16 left in the game, PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw a crossing pass to TE Dallas Goedert and two NO defenders ran into each other and Goedert ended up on the 4yard line. PHILLY punched it in for a td and the game. The DEF for NO was good but at the end of the game they were let down. On SNF, ATL had 2 chances vs KC late in the game to beat KC and they blew both of them. They should have won but didn’t take advantage and it cost them both times and the game. The 2nd time was due to suspect play calling and they deserved to lose. Two predictable plays and the KC DEF was waiting for them. Had they tried something different like a TE out in the flats while everyone was looking run, it would have been a different outcome. Cousins & CO would have looked like gangbusters but, instead they look like fakers in the midst. ATL lost 22-17. Other than this bad play calling at the end, ATL was playing toe-to-toe with KC although they didn’t have an answer for KC FB Carson Steele who was pressed into duty with the injuries at RB for KC. He rushed for 72yds on 17carries which gave KC the advantage of keeping the ATL DEF on its toes. L17 NO @ATL, NO 11-6 SU & 9-8 ATS. L27 NO vs ATL, NO 16-11 ATS. L26 NO vs ATL, HOME 14-12 ATS. L22 NO vs ATL, DOG 13-9 ATS. NO 12-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NO 30-33-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NO 29-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 21-20-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. NO 55-43-1 ATS L99 AWAY. NO 28-13 ATS L41 as a ROAD DOG. NO 8-3 ATS before MNF. NO 16-4 ATS AWAY after an SUATS loss. ATL 1-9 ATS before TNF. ATL 10-11 ATS before TB. ATL 5-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. ATL 31-27 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 22-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ATL 20-21 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. Both of these teams are coming off losses that should have been wins. Both teams have QBs that fold under pressure. Both teams have dynamic stars on OFF & DEF. ATL upgraded their DEF in the off-season. NO is very healthy right now with a team that is loaded. No one jumps out on the injury list for ATL but there are guys that are banged up and questionable for NO. NO will look to get back to being a scoring machine while ATL will just try to score, if they can. I have to look at NO with their OC over ATL with their OC because NO has adjusted better than ATL has. ATL has been going through growing pains while NO came out of the gate busting out all over. The ATL DEF is certainly not as talented as the NO DEF. I like NO to bounce back better here than ATL and I like the points they are getting. ATL is a late touchdown away from being 0-3 while NO has been dominant for wk 1 & 2 while being a little bamboozled by PHILLY in wk 3. I generally feel that NO should get back to winning while ATL is still finding their way. Take NO & the points here.   

THE PICK: NO+2 ½

Los Angeles Rams (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (1-2), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                         LAR+3

LW, SF @LAR should have been a cake walk for SF. They were my pick of the week as LAR has many injuries all over the place and SF is a tough team with many stars. SF was leading 21-7 but decided to take it easy. Anyway, to make a long story short, LAR scored 2tds & 2fgs in their last four possessions to win 27-24. An upset by LAR put SF at 1-2. LAR QB Matthew Stafford didn’t fold throwing 16/25 221yds 1td & 0turnovers. It was a nice comeback win for LAR. LW, I liked CHI +1 ½ @INDY because on paper, CHI is better than INDY.  But, CHI has absolutely no O-LINE and it will stunt the growth of their QB, Caleb Williams. He was sacked 4x and it seemed like he was under pressure most of the game. He also had 2INTs & 1lost fumble. INDY was able to turn two of those turnovers into 2tds. INDY ended up winning 21-16. CHI has talent but no O-LINE will keep this team from winning, just ask NYG. Plus, INDY rushed for 150yds & 3tds on 33carries. CHI had no answer. L10 LAR vs CHI, LAR 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS. LAR 9-8-1 ATS after SF. 21-36-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAR 29-34-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAR 1-6 ATS L7 AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CHI 8-11-2 ATS in 1st in BB HGs. CHI 3-7-1 ATS in 1st off BB HGs vs non-div opp. CHI 20-28-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CHI 31-33-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CHI 7-13 ATS @HOMe off non-conf gm. CHI 7-5 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs .333<opp off ATS win. CHI 7-3 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts vs .333<opp off ATS win. There are two keys for LAR that will help them win this game. They should run the ball like hell right over the CHI DEF. They can’t stop the run and this will take pressure off of Stafford. The second one is that the LAR D-LINE should go after CHI QB Caleb Williams on every play. Keep the pressure on him and he will fold because he doesn’t have enough time to dissect the DEF. With all the pressure on him he will either throw an INT or fumble. The game vs INDY is a perfect example. Also, because of a terrible O-LINE, CHI can’t run the ball, another factor why Williams is in trouble. The fact that CHI is the FAV here makes no sense and people watching this game should take note. Yes, LAR WRs Kupp & Nacua are out but Stafford found other reliable receivers last week vs SF. LAR have a solid O-LINE and that’s why Stafford is able to dissect any DEF. He may have been sacked 3x vs SF but he was able to run the table against SF and win the game. Take the points here as LAR should win unless they all of a sudden play like duds.  

THE PICK: LAR+3

Minnesota Vikings (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                MINN+2

LW, MINN @HOME took it to HOU 34-7. The MINN DEF sacked HOU QB CJ Stroud 4x & intercepted him 2x. MINN turned those 2INTS & a missed HOU fg into 21pts. HOU was in catchup mode all day and couldn’t get going because the MINN DEF was all over. Granted, HOU didn’t have RB Joe Mixon but I would have picked MINN anyway. HOU had 38total yds rushing which certainly put more pressure on Stroud. MINN QB Sam Darnold had 4td, 0INTS & 0tunovers. The run game helped him out with MINN RB Aaron Jones rushing for 102yds. Darnold also spread the ball around nicely to six different receivers. LW, I knew that GB QB Malik Willis wanted to take it to the team that traded him away during the off-season, TENN. They really didn’t give him a legit shot at being the starter and TENN shipped him out. Well, at least for one day he got his revenge because GB won the game 30-14. Willis rushed for 73yds & 1td while passing 13/19 & 202yds with 1td & 0INTs. He was a one man wrecking crew. He also spread the ball around nicely to 7different receivers. This game was 7-7 early but when GB returned a PICK6 from the hands of TENN QB Will Levis GB was up 17-7 and TENN was playing catchup to no avail. Also, the GB DEF sacked Levis 8x, intercepted him 2x, recovered his fumble and held the TENN run game to 33yds. L17 MINN @GB, MINN 5-10-2 SU & 6-10-1 ATS. L34 MINN vs GB, HOME 19-14-1 ATS. L24 MINN vs GB, DOG 13-10 ATS 1PICK’EM. MINN 27-28-3 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MINN 34-23-4 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 24-33-2 ATS vs NFC NORTH in SEPT. MINN 33-20-1 ATS as a DOG 4>pts or less. MINN 17-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 3-8 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. MINN 24-17 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 5-11 ATS off SU DOG win vs .500>opp. MINN 2-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs DIV opp. MINN 5-12 ATS vs .666>conf opp. MINN 0-7 ATS off DD SU win vs .666>conf opp. MINN 5-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG off DD SU win. GB 37-28-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 42-41 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. GB 31-19-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in SEPT. GB 11-11 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 1-6 ATS @HOME off DD SU non-div win. GB 13-12-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 11-2 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SUATS win. GB 19-7 ATS off non-conf gm. GB 14-5 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts off non-conf gm. GB 1-8 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs div opp. GB 5-12-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. GB 9-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. GB 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS vs undefeated foes under HC Matt LaFleur. GB 0-4 ATS L4 vs opp off SU DOG win. Do you think MINN RB Aaron Jones is pumped for this game? He like no other probably wants to get the ball on every play. With that in mind, he will take enormous pressure off of Sam Darnold to pick the GB DEF apart. But he can’t get overexcited because so far this season, the GB DEF is decent and if you come in a little overconfident they will knock you down to size. The GB DEF knows Aaron Jones will want to run every play and most of them know his tendencies from scrimmages, training camp and games. So there will be no surprises. But MINN is not TENN. TENN has a lot of holes and a QB that is learning. Darnold has been a round and MINN has a lot of stars. Sam Darnold has shown a maturity with MINN that he didn’t show with his other teams. Could it be the system he is in? The coaching? Probably a combination of everything but certainly the coaching. I like MINN here because of the Jones factor and that GB hasn’t beaten anyone decent and right now MINN has a complete OFF & a DEF that creeps up on you. Take MINN & the pts.    

THE PICK: MINN+2

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-0-1) ATS                      INDY+2

LW, PITT @HOME was tied 10-10 with LAC. I thought LAC would find a way to win. But PITT knocked LAC QB Justin Hebert out with his already bad ankle and the PITT DEF didn’t let QB Taylor Heinicke get comfortable. They sacked him 3x and the run game for LAC wet nowhere. PITT QB Justin Fields continues to impress with 25/32 passing 1td, 1INT &0fumbles. PITT rushed very well for 114yds which took a lot of pressure off of Fields in the 20-10 PITT win. PITT DEF had 5sacks. LW, INDY won because CHI has absolutely no O-LINE. CHI QB Caleb Williams was sacked 4x, threw 2INTS & had 1lost fumble. A great day for the DEF, a bad day for CHI. Even with this score line the score was tight. It was INDY 7-0 at the half, INDY 14-9 in the 4th qtr and a 21-16 INDY win. There were a lot of mishaps for CHI because of the bad O-LINE. INDY QB Anthony Richardson threw 2INTS and was 10/20 passing. But the RBs helped him out with 126yds rushing & 3tds. INDY, which s a very bad RUN DEF team held CHI to 63yds rushing. L11 PITT vs INDY, PITT 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. HOME 8-3 ATS. PITT 18-19 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 25-36-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PITT 22-37 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 18-25 ATS vs non-div conf opp. PITT 10-6 ATS L16 vs AFC SOUTH. INDY 9-11-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. INDY 5-11 ATS before JAGS. INDY 9-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 3-7 ATS as a DOG 6<pts in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 25-25-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. INDY 28-31-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PITT HC Mike Tomlin is a very smart guy and is looking even smarter that QB Justin Fields is playing the way he is. Also Tomlin doesn’t forget things. Last season in week 15 PITT was @INDY. INDY walloped PITT 30-13 in a game that saw INDY QB Gardner Minshew tear up the PITT DEF for 3tds and the INDY OFF rushed for 170yds. PITT had Mitch Trubisky & Mason Rudolph as their QB but both were ineffective and PITT could only manage 74yds on the ground. This game was INDY 14-13 at the half. PITT couldn’t get out of their own way in the 2nd half while INDY capitalized on a PITT fumble and scored 16 points in the 2nd half. This is a payback game for PITT as most of the team remembers the embarrassing loss. The PITT DEF should be primed and ready for INDY QB Anthony Richardson and his running ways. PITT #3 RUSH DEF. PITT will put it all on the arm of Richardson and he will make mistakes. Look for TJ Watt to have a couple of sacks and maybe a fumble recovery. Take PITT here unless they beat themselves.    

THE PICK: PITT-2

Denver Broncos (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ New York Jets (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                          DEN+7 ½

LW, DEN surprised everyone by beating TB @TB, 26-7. DEN QB Bo Nix outplayed TB QB Baker Mayfield. It helped Nix a great deal that he wasn’t sacked at all by TB. On the other side, the DEN DEF got to Mayfield 7x, intercepted him 1x and recovered a fumble by TB WR Cade Otton. DEN did turn the INT into a td. Nix was 25/36, 216yds, 0tds but more importantly 0turnovers. DEN also rushed for 136 yds aided by Nix’s 47 yds & 1td. DEN was ahead 14-0 in the 1st qtr and cruised to a 26-7 win. It was certainly an upset because I liked TB-6 ½. But DEN was playing like the FAV and TB was turned away 7x in this game. Could it be a turnaround for DEN & Bo Nix? LW on TNF, NYJ took care of NE on both sides of the ball with a 24-3 win. The NYJ DEF sacked NE QBs Jacoby Brissett & Drake Maye 7x and recovered a RB Rhamondre Stevenson fumble. This game was 14-3 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 27/35, 281yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. The run game also helped him out with 133yds rushing & 1td on 33 carries. Rodgers also spread the ball around nicely to 7different receivers. It was a total team effort. I had liked NE+7 because I knew that NYJ would win but I felt with the NE DEF, NE would at least keep it close. But the NE DEF was also put on their backs in this game and didn’t make the stops necessary to keep NE within any kind of striking distance. DEN 15-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DEN 21-18 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 32-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DEN 15-13 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 9-9 ATS L18 off SU DOG win. DEN 4-9 ATS L13 AWAY vs AFC EAST. DEN 3-8-1 ATS before LV. DEN 1-7 ATS after allowing 7<pts. DEN 6-3 ATS after allowing 7<pts vs .500>opp. DEN 5-11 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. DEN 6-7 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. DEN 0-6 ATS L6 off SU ROAD DOG win. NYJ 9-9 ATS after NE. NYJ 11-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYJ 22-37 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYJ 20-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NYJ 3-10 ATS L13 off SU DIV win. NYJ 3-11 ATS after TNF. NYJ 7-2-1 ATS L10 @HOME vs AFC WEST. NYJ 1-6 ATS L7 off SU win vs opp off SUATS win. These two teams know each other but have gone through some transformations of their own in the last 4years. NYJ & DEN have had a little rivalry going in that time. They have played each other the last 4years with it being 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. L11, DEN 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS. Right now, NYJ & QB Aaron Rodgers are in a good place. But has DEN QB Bo Nix & the OFF turned a corner or was it fools gold @TB? The DEF has been tough for DEN, keeping them in the two games that they lost. They didn’t give up much @PITT either and except for multiple turnovers @SEA, that game probably would have had a lower score. DEN is not NE and DEN HC Sean Payton has been around. I am not saying that NE HC Jarod Mayo isn’t going to get better but he’s in the once around. Payton has seen almost everything and knows how to prepare against Rodgers. Knwoing that this is the 5th straight season that these teams have met, I like it to be a closer game than the spread suggests. Rodgers is due for a so-so game and hopefully Nix & CO can keep that progress moving forward. I feel that this game may even come down to a fg. I would be utterly shocked if there was a blowout by either team but 7 ½ is just too much to ignore. Take DEN & the points here.

THE PICK: DEN+7 ½

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Tamp Bay Buccaneers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS            TB+2 ½  

LW, NO @HOME had the game vs PHILLY. But NO in pass coverage ran into each other and TE Dallas Goedert became the hero with a pass catch and run for 61yds to the NO 4yd line This set up the winning td and 2pt conversion in a 15-12 PHILLY win. This was on a 3rd & 16yds play. PHILLY had scored all their points in the 4th qtr after NO looked like a semi pro team, not being able to do anything except a fg going into the 4th qtr. This was after NO had scored 47 & 44pts in the last 2games. PHILLY used ball control in this game but they couldn’t get anything going either until NO blinked in the 4th qtr. The game could have gone either way and I did like NO in this game. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley took advantage of his opportunities and rushed for 2tds & 147yds on 17 carries. LW, TB got whalloped @HOME by DEN 26-7. They were brought down to Earth by a rookie QB in Bo Nix. The TB DEF didn’t sack Nix 1x while allowing 136yds rushing & 2tds. Nix was able to spread the ball around to 9different receivers. DEN spurted out to a 14-0 lead in the 1st qtr and TB was playing catchup from there. The DEN DEF which is actually decent kept TB QB Baker Mayfield from turning the tables and sacked him 7x. DEN had a 20-7 lead at the half and TB couldn’t get any closer in a DEN 26-7 win. It was a nice win for DEN but TB did not put any pressure on Bo Nix and he picked the TB DEF apart. L8 PHILLY vs TB(not incl playoffs), PHILLY 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS. PHILLY 16-23 ATS L39 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 26-35 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PHILLY 33-44 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PHILLY 13-4 ATS since 2007  before their bye. PHILLY 12-21 ATS vs .666> conf opp. PHILLY 1-6 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs .500>opp. PHILLY 8-0 ATS off SU win vs .666>non-div opp off SUATS loss. PHILLY 5-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. TB 9-13-2 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. TB 5-10-1 ATS before ATL. TB 8-13-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TB 25-31-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TB 33-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TB 5-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs opp w/revenge. TB 9-10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 5-6-1 ATS as a non-div DOG >1pt off SU FAV loss. TB 9-1 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG vs <1.000 opp w/revenge. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley is playing like a man on a mission. He has given PHILLY a consistent, reliable & dependent RB choice. This takes so much pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts so that he can see the field clearer. This is also a payback game for PHILLY. They were completely embarrassed in the wild card game last season @TB, 32-9. It wasn’t even funny how TB dominated PHILLY on both sides of the ball. PHILLY rushed for a paltry 42yds in that game and Hurts was forced to throw the ball 35x in a catchup game. TB had a 10-0 lead in the 1st qtr and PHILLY couldn’t get anything going except 1td with a 2pt conversion failed and 1fg. PHILLY could not get anything going while TB looked great. PHILLY HC Nick Sirianni should be preaching that game to his team all week. TB showed their inefficiencies vs DEN last week and PHILLY should capitalize on it. This is a payback game and PHILLY should bring TB back to Earth. Lay the points here as PHILLY rolls.  

THE PICK: PHILLY-2 ½

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                          CAR+4 ½ 

On MNF, CINNCY desperate for a win couldn’t stop WASH & QB Jayden Daniels and lost 38-33. CINNCY didn’t punt in the game but neither did WASH. The CINNCY DEF couldn’t make a stop during the game and CINNCY now falls to 0-3. This was a game where CINNCY was a heavy FAV+7 ½ and I liked them to take control of the game vs WASH. They did nothing that shows anyone that right now they are a playoff caliber team. To make matters worse, this week they face a team with a QB that has a score to settle. CAR QB Andy Dalton showed everyone that he has a lot left in the tank. After LV dismantled BALT in a nice win, I figured they could carry over to the game with CAR. Well, Dalton thought otherwise and he took command of the game passing 26/37, 319yds, 3tds & 0INTS. He spread the ball around nicely to seven different receivers. The run game helped him out too, rushing for 131yds on 31carries & 1td. This game was CAR 27-7 in the 3rd qtr after a 7-7 1st qtr. LV tried to make a game of it but CAR kept scoring as well en route to a very nice 36-22 win @LV. If CAR played like this every week, they would be a team that others would fear. They need to keep it going and it seems that Dalton right now will be the starter for CAR, especially this week. The CAR DEF also played well sacking LV QBs 3x while intercepting LV QB Gardner Minshew 1x. The INT by Minshew was turned into 3pts by CAR which made the score at the time CAR 36-15 in the 4th qtr. L5 CINNCY vs CAR, CINNCY 3-1-1 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. CINNCY 15-8 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 10-8-1 ATS before BALT. CINNCY 33-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CINNCY 17-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CINNCY 13-11 ATS as a FAV <7pts off DD ATS loss. CINNCY 10-11 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses. CINNCY 25-7 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 15-3 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 15-1 ATS as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 10-7-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 2-6-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 1-6 ATS as a FAV 9<pts after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 0-5 ATS as a FAV <6pts after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 6-5 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 7-0 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 14-15-2 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. CAR 21-28-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CAR 26-26-2 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 12-3 ATS off DD ATS win. CAR 20-15-1 ATS off DD SU win. CAR 13-8 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 17-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CAR 11-3 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). Do you think CAR QB Andy Dalton is excited for this game? CINNCY discarded him after not being able to win a playoff game. But it wasn’t entirely his fault. On occasion, the rest of the team did not show up either. Dalton’s last season with CINNCY was 2019 when the team really hit rock bottom going 2-14. CINNCY didn’t re-sign Dalton and in came QB Joe Burrow. Wouldn’t Dalton love to win this game? With Dalton last week, CAR looked decent and demolished LV. CINNCY has a DEF that cannot stop anyone. If I was Dalton, I would be foaming at the mouth for this one. Dalton knows how to play this game as does Burrow. CAR WR Adam Thielen was placed on IR after injuring his hamstring @LV. If the CAR O-LINE can give Dalton time like they did vs LV, he will pick them apart. Also, if the running game is decent for CAR, it will just make matters worse for CINNCY who made WASH QB Jayden Daniels look like a superstar on MNF. CINNCY couldn’t stop the WASH OFF 1x. I like CAR here because even though CINNCY is desperate, Dalton is on a mission here. Take CAR & the points.     

THE PICK: CAR+4 ½

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3), (02-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-1), (0-2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS                   JAGS+6

On MNF, JAGS were thoroughly embarrassed @BUFF 47-10. What is there to say about a team that was already down 34-3 at halftime? At that point, whatever game plan you had, goes out the door. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is not playing like he did when he was drafted and his passes are like he’s trying to make something happen and forcing them to his receivers. The BUFF DEF also dominated and sacked Lawrence 4x and backup QB Mac Jones 1x. To make matters worse, Lawrence had 1INT while Jones had a lost fumble. BUFF turned both of those turnovers into 2tds. I don’t even know if JAGS have the where-with-all to bounce back, they don’t look mentally tough and are not playing well at all this season. LW, HOU took it on the chin @MINN. I liked MINN+2 @HOME because right now, MINN is playing way better than a lot of teams expect them to play and they are playing smart football. HOU QB CJ Stroud just had a bad game with 2INTS, which MINN turned into 2tds. Also, the running game for HOU was just not there which amounted for a paltry 38yds. MINN sacked Stroud and backup QB Davis Mills 5x. Games like this happen and HOU is a team that under HC Demesco Ryans has shown a resiliency to bounceback after a loss. A positive sign from this game is that even though HOU was down, the HOU DEF still sacked MINN QB Sam Darnold 4x. L16 JAGS @HOU, JAGS 5-12 SU but, 9-8 ATS. L34 JAGS vs HOU, JAGS 11-23 SU & 15-19 ATS. L24 JAGS vs HOU, ROAD 17-7 ATS. L12 HOU vs JAGS, HOU 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS. JAGS 3-16-1 ATS before INDY. JAGS 11-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. JAGS 32-32-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. 23-17 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. JAGS 23-25-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. JAGS 6-21 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 1-7 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 6-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG >3pts off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 9-1 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS 8-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. HOU 7-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. HOU 13-13-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 12-9-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. HOU 16-20 ATS @HOME in SEPT. HOU 13-13 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 8-5-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. HOU 15-9-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 11-10-1 ATS L22 after DD ATS loss. HOU 1-8 ATS L9 @HOME vs <.500 opp. HOU is on a bounceback from their loss @MINN. But the difference with HOU as opposed to the JAGS is that right now HOU QB CJ Stroud is a better all-around QB than JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence hasn’t shown any maturity and lost eight of nine games going back to last year. When JAGS were 8-3 last season, they were poised to take the next steps forward. Now they just look like what they are, which is a badly coached team. They don’t look focused and make plenty of mistakes. HOU is a young team but they play like veterans. They certainly know how to bounceback after a loss. Last season after a two game losing streak to start the season, HOU never lost two in a row the rest of the season. They bounced back each and every time and they learned how to get better. Stroud shows maturity beyond his years and leads this team forward. HOU doesn’t have that tough of a schedule and could end up with double digit wins. They do have some games against playoff teams but that will be the test if they took the next step forward from last season. Right now, JAGS have plenty to fix and it may be that JAGS HC Doug Pederson and his staff can’t get through to the team. Lay the points here as HOU bounces back and JAGS just bounce.    

THE PICK: HOU-6

Sunday September 29th, 2024 4:00pm

Washington Commanders (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                WASH+3 ½  

Did anyone expect WASH to come out like gangbusters on MNF @CINNCY like they did? I had liked CINNCY-7 ½ because CNNCY is desperate to right their ship. But, this game was a back and forth shootout in which the WASH OFF couldn’t be stopped. Neither team punted and or had any turnovers. WASH QB Jayden Daniels spread the ball around to 8different receivers & the CINNCY DEF had no answers in a 38-33 win. One bad thing to come out of this game was the fact that the WASH DEF didn’t stop the CINNCY OFF either. CINNCY didn’t put and scored on almost every possession except for a missed fg early in the 2nd qtr. If WASH can get their DEF a little under control, who knows? But if they continue to be able to score and move the ball around successfully, they may be hard to stop. LW, ARZ was @HOME vs a DET team that was on a big bounceback. I liked DET -3 because DET was regrouping after getting handed a big loss @HOME to TB. ARZ just happened to be in DET’s way. ARZ was coming off a big win vs LAR, 41-10 and I also knew that ARZ wasn’t going to score that many vs DET, sorry. ARZ vs DET was a slugfest even though DET got out to a 20-7 lead. ARZ made some adjustments and DET did not score another point the rest of the game. However, ARZ was only able to muster a fg late in the 1st half and then a dummy fg at the end of the game for a 20-13 loss.  ARZ QB Kyler Murray did spread the ball around to 6different receivers but ARZ couldn’t get into endzone more than 1x. ARZ rookie WR Marvin Harrison is looking like a FAV target for Murray. L10 WASH vs ARZ, WASH 7-3 SU but, 4-6 ATS. WASH 10-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. WASH 6-13 ATS as a DOG in n2d of BB RGs. WASH 37-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 29-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 16-6 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 6-1 ATS off DD ATS win. ARZ 7-8 ATS before SF. ARZ 23-33-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 15-22 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ARZ 2-10 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts. ARZ 18-4 ATS @HOME vs non-div off SUATS win. ARZ 22-11 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 12-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. Maybe it took a crazy win vs NYG a couple of weeks ago to ignite the WASH team in the right direction. No one expected WASH to be in any conversations just yet but it is coming to light that WASH wanted Daniels way before this year’s draft. The DEF for WASH still has a ways to go but there are some playmakers & veterans on the WASH OFF. For ARZ, they have to be more consistent. Highs and lows are big with this team and they are playing a WASH team that may not know how to handle winning. No one has expected either of these teams to be in the playoffs after both had terrible seasons in 2023. But, in the NFL there needs to be progress in the short term or a team decides to clean house. This is the kind of game that could go down to the wire with two exploding OFFs and I like that WASH is getting just a little more than a fg. Both teams will try to establish the run to take pressure off their QB but ARZ relies a little too much on the QB to get that job done and that is dangerous. DEF was WASH HC Dan Quinn’s specialty so he probably is preparing to have a spotter on Murray so that he doesn’t destroy WASH with his running. The goal for WASH should be to keep Murray in the pocket and let him make mistakes. WASH RB Austin Ekeler is out but RB Brian Robinson should be able to handle the load. Take WASH & the points. WASH beat ARZ in week 1 of 2023 but that was a long time ago with a completely different WASH team.     

THE PICK: WASH+3 ½

New England Patriots (1-2), (1-1-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                        NE+10 ½  

On TNF, NE was blown out @NYJ, 24-3. I only liked NE+7 to keep it close. I never thought for a minute that NE would win. What’s holding NE back is their O-LINE. It is terrible and it is costing them games. They were dominated on both sides of the ball by NYJ. NE QBs in this game were sacked 7x. A short fix for the O-LINE needs to be addressed before a long term solution can be found. LW, SF was up 21-7 and 24-14 in the 4th qtr @LAR but the SF DEF got lax and LAR found an opening and scored 2tds & 2fgs in their final 4possessions to win the game 27-24. In the losing effort, SF QB Brock Purdy may have twinged his back. He is not listed on any injury reports but it may be lingering. SF has injuries all over the place but it was no excuse from them losing this game. The lack of intensity by the SF DEF in this game has been a problem as SF has lost their last two games. L5 NE vs SF, NE 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. NE 11-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NE 13-7 ATS after NYJ. NE 11-9 ATS before MIA. NE 30-30 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 19-22-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NE 14-2 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 2-7 ATS AWAy off div RAOD gm vs <.500opp. NE 19-4 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. NE 1-7 ATS L8 after div ROAD gm. SF 8-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. SF 8-4 ATS after LAR. SF 6-14 ATS before ARZ. SF 30-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SF 38-35 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 11-15-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 3-12 ATS @HOME vs opp off DD SU loss. SF 1-10 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. SF 14-24 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF 7-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. SF 1-14 ATS as a HOME FAV 13<pts vs <.500opp. LW, SF looked mortal. They blew a big lead @LAR. SF HC Kyle Shanahan is one of those HCs that needs stars to win games. He can’t win with nobodies and that’s what SF is with all these injured players. SF has many people out due to injury and it looks like they have a SuperBowl hangover. SF HC Kyle Shanahan doesn’t know how to coach, period. There is so much talent on SF, yet at many times they play mediocre. On the other side, NE is in a rebuild and they need help on their O-LINE. NE has nothing to lose in this game and may not only keep it close but may even steal a win. SF is banged up on both sides of the ball and even QB Brock Purdy is hurting. NE QB Jacoby Brissett is starting this game but needs to play better. He needs to make better decisions and also have better precision with his receivers. On top of that, he needs to be able to read the DEF and call an audible, shake things up. LT Trent Williams is questionable for this game and that is BIG. Without him, the left side is wide open to get to Purdy. SF is in double bounceback but, again NE has nothing to lose. LAR was able to run against SF and NE should try to establish a run game to take some pressure off of Brissett. If he can get some time, he can move the ball down the field and score some points. I see this game as a low scoring effort because the DEF for NE needs to show improvement after the lackluster effort vs NYJ. The BIG spread dictates blowout but, I think NE will keep it close. They may even get a back door cover. I like NE with the points here.  

THE PICK: NE+10 ½

Cleveland Browns (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                  LV+1 ½  

LW, CLEV lost @HOME to NYG, 21-15. The game started out with a muffed kickoff by NYG and CLEV was up 7-0 with :11 played in the 1st qtr. But after that CLEV forgot how to play football and NYG won 21-15. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was sacked 8x and fumbled 2x. Also, CLEV rushed for a lousy 69yds. NYG was up 21-7 at halftime and CLEV scored a dummy td in catchup mode in the 4th qtr but to no avail in the loss. LW, LV was dominated by CAR QB Andy Dalton. Dalton took a page from his past and dominated LV from start to finish. He was 26/37, 319yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. He had the LV DEF on their toes and CAR added in 131 yds rushing for good measure. CAR was up 21-7 at the half and won 36-22. LV got 2tds in catchup mode & garbage time to make the final score closer than this game really was. LV had a lousy 55yds rushing in the loss. LV is learning very fast that neither Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell are the answer @QB. L11 CLEV vs LV, CLEV 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS. CLEV 5-10-1 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 13-16-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 9-15 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEV 22-17 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CLEV 7-3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV off SU loss. CLEV 6-1 ATS vs opp off SU HOME FAV loss. LV 18-18-2 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. LV 8-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. LV 10-11-1 ATS before DEN. LV 26-33 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LV 38-34 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LV 3-18-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <.500opp. LV 9-10-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 1-7 ATS after allowing 35> vs <500 opp. LV 4-10 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LV 4-19 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 7-2 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 0-7 ATS L7 @HOME off DD ATS loss. Right now, CLEV can’t get out of their own way. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson doesn’t look right. He has not played well and the team is suffering. Maybe it’s the BIG contract he signed. Also, guys are banged up on this team and the OFF seems to be going in reverse. LV has WR Davante Adams & DE Maxx Crosby out for this game. Crosby is always an X-factor but the rest of the team’s DEF sometimes disappears around him. They certainly did as they were picked apart LW by CAR QB Andy Dalton for the loss. LV looks better in 2024 than they did in 2023 but, they need to take that extra step forward. They have to stay consistent. Both of these teams are coming off losses and CLEV’s loss is more of a shocker than LV’s. CLEV was a BIG FAV while LV was a smaller FAV. CLEV has the talent to get back on track faster than LV. LV gave up 131 yds rushing to CAR. Without DE Maxx Crosby CLEV should get their run game going and Watson should be more relaxed to get a nice win. Based on the facts that LV is a completely different team on DEF w/o Crosby this will open it up for CLEV. The CLEV DEF needs to step up. They were so good in 2023 and now they are just average. CLEV DE Myles Garrett is questionable but others need to step up. Also, if Watson doesn’t have a good game here, CLEV should start to seriously consider a new QB down the road. Lay the points here as CLEV SHOULD bounceback from their loss @HOME vs NYG. Yeah, NYG.

THE PICK: CLEV-1 ½  

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                 LAC+7

On SNF, KC got lucky, very lucky. ATL had 2chances to get into the endzone very late in the game and they blew both chances. Bad play calling was the culprit. I liked ATL+3 ½ and they should have won outright but KC won 22-17. KC TE Travis Kelce was a non-factor in this game, again. Even without a starting RB, KC rushed for 128yds led by FB Carson Steele with 72yds on 17carries. He found his way over the ATL D-LINE time and time again to sustain drives that took the ball away from the ATL OFF. LW, I liked LAC +1 ½ @PITT because LAC has a good OFF and running game that would keep most opponents on their toes. But this was PITT with a healthy DEF and they stymied the LAC OFF all day. It was a close one early but PITT won 20-10. They knocked out QB Justin Herbert with a high ankle sprain and Taylor Heinicke came in but was ineffective. The PITT DEF smothered him too. The run game was shut down by PITT and that led to the QBs for LAC being sacked 5x. The LAC secondary had no answers while PITT QB Justin Fields was able to spread the ball around to 8diiferent receivers. L17 KC @LAC, KC 11-6 SU & 12-5 ATS. L34 KC vs LAC, ROAD 22-12 ATS. L28 KC vs LAC, DOG 17-11 ATS. L22 KC vs LAC, KC 17-5 SU & 13-9 ATS. KC 27-25-1 ATS L53 as a ROAD FAV. KC 13-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. KC 41-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. KC 26-17 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. KC 39-32 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 3-12 ATS after a non-conf ROAD gm. KC 20-8-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 11-6 ATS vs .500> div opp. LAC 7-10-2 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. LAC 6-11 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. LAC 29-34 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAC 28-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAC 21-18 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. LAC 4-14 ATS @HOME w/rev vs .400>opp. LAC 2-8 ATS @HOMe off SUATS loss vs .666>opp. LAC 2-7 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts w/revenge vs .400>opp. LAC 5-11 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts vs opp off SUATS win. LAC LB Joey Bosa is out for this game and that puts a big hole there for the LAC DEF. LB Khalil Mack is overrated and I can tell you will not get any sacks this week vs KC. It seems that when KC needs a player to fill a position, someone steps up from nowhere and they become a star. This time it was FB Carson Steele. RB Kareem Hunt will be starting this week for KC and he will be ready to run. He hasn’t played in a while but it is obvious that he is in shape enough to play. FB Carson Steele who surprised everyone on SNF will probably get some carries too as he proved to evryoe that he can carry the load. Does KC now have a 1-2 RB punch that they can rely on? That would be too dangerous for opposing teams that play KC because Mahomes would then be able to pick apart any DEF. Right now LAC QB Justin Herbert is questionable with a  high ankle sprain and I don’t think he plays at all. Taylor Heinicke is the backup but he is rusty and LAC is pretty banged up. The run game last week was pretty much stopped cold vs PITT but may get a jump start vs KC. KC #13 RUSH DEF. KC is decent vs the run but not as good as PITT. However, the OFF for KC is just starting to get going and the secondary for LAC can be overrated. LAC #10 PASS DEF. LAC beat two bad teams and lost to an up and comer. KC QB Pat Mahomes knows the tendencies of LAC and loves beating his rivals. Mahomes has become Brady. I like KC beating LAC by 10pts. It will be nothing fancy and at the end KC will have the win.

THE PICK: KC-7

Sunday September 29th, 2024 8:20pm

Buffalo Bills (3-0), (3-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2), (1-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                               BUFF+2 ½  

On MNF, BUFF @HOME destroyed JAGS, 47-10. It was like a tune u game with a college team. BUFF did everything right and JAGS did everything wrong. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw for 23/30 for 263yds, 4tds, 0INTs, rushed for 44yds & wasn’t even sacked. He also sold hot dogs in the stands that night while BUFF was on DEF. He did it all and JAGS had no answers. The score was BUFF 34-3 at the half and you could turn your set off. Allen spread the ball around to 10different receivers as the JAGS DEF was left dumbfounded. I thought that JAGS +5 ½ would at least make a game of it and keep it close but JAGS didn’t even get off the bus. Instead, they sent a high school football team into the stadium. LW, I liked BALT -1 @DAL because I knew that there was no way that BALT was going 0-3, plus the fact that DAL is overrated. BAL was up 28-6 in the 4th qtr but decided that they had stopped playing DEF. DAL made a nice comeback but to no avail and still lost 28-25. BALT ran over DAL for 274 yds & 3tds on 45carries. While BALT QB Lamar Jackson only passed for 12/15 for 182 yds & 1td, he wasn’t sacked and had 0turnovers. BALT RB Derrick Henry got going rushing over the DAL DEF for 151yds & 2tds on 25carries. That was the difference as the DAL DEF had no answer for him. L9 BUFF vs BALT, BALT 6-3 SU & 5-3-1 ATS incl HOME 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS. BUFF 9-8 ATS on SNF. BUFF 9-7 ATS as a DOG on SNF. BUFF 11-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. BUFF 31-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BUFF 31-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. BUFF 8-4 ATS off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 11-16-2 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 11-3-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <.500opp. BUFF 5-0-2 ATS as a DOG 6<pts after allowing 10<pts. BUFF 5-12-2 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 8-13-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs conf opps. BUFF 1-7 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 9<pts off BB SU wins. BALT 9-10 ATS @HOME on SNF. BALT 1-5 ATS on SNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 9-10 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BALT 11-7-2 ATS before CINNCY. BALT 35-23 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 40-34 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 15-33-2 ATS @HOMe off non-div gm. BALT 14-6-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC EAST. BALT 10-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-18 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. An almost contrast in styles. So far this season, BALT has been outscored 39-13 in the 4th qtr. That is not a good sign for a team that at least needs to get back to the AFC Championship after being the #1 seed last season. The secondary is still a weak spot for BALT and don’t think for a minute BUFF QB Josh Allen doesn’t know this. BUFF has their own demons to deal with, like the divisional loss @HOME to KC. Do I think BUFF can continue their scoring dominance so far in 2024? It could go either way but the BUFF DEF has done their part. They haven’t let teams creep back into games at all. I don’t know if BALT is going to run wild over BUFF like they did @ DAL. BUFF #16 RUSH DEF. It is decent and BUFF may put in a spotter to make sure that Lamar stays in the pocket. BALT may try to do the same but Allen can then beat you with his arm because he can distribute the ball around quite effectively. He doesn’t need to run. For Lamar, he is not as effective just in the pocket as he is running. The last time these two teams met was in 2022 @BALT with BUFF winning 23-20. I don’t think the points will matter in this contest but, I like BUFF to keep rolling and take care of business. I don’t like BALT’s secondary and they can picked apart by a QB that is patient. Look what happened two ago vs LV.

THE PICK: BUFF+2 ½

Monday September 30th, 2024 7:30pm

Tennessee Titans (0-3), (0-3) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (1-2), (0-2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-1-1) ATS                                TENN+1

LW, TENN was up against a former QB with a bone to pick. GB QB Malik Willis was traded to GB in the off-season. I said it last week and he delivered, 30-14. Also, GB ran all over TENN for 188yds and Willis had 73 of those yards. GB also sacked TENN QB Will Levis 8x, intercepted him 2x and recovered 1 fumble. Not a good day all around for TENN or Levis. It was actually 7-7 in the 1st qtr but after that GB took control and was up 27-7 in the 3rd qtr. TENN got a td but GB added a fg to make the final score a blowout. There is talent on OFF for TENN but the O-LINE MUST do a better job, period. LW, MIA @SEA was a blowout 24-3. SEA dominated early 17-3 vs MIA and coasted the rest of the way. But the DEF for SEA stopped MIA at any chance they had of getting into the endzone. MIA QB were sacked 6x as Tim Boyle replaced Skylar Thompson when he hurt his ribs and the game was over. SEA in turn rushed over MIA for 100yds while MIA was playing catchup all day. L12 MIA vs TENN, TENN 6-6 SU & 6-6 ATS. TENN 8-9 ATS since 2007 before their bye. TENN 9-2 ATS 1NL L12 on MNF. TENN 6-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. TENN 1-6 ATS on MNF off DD ATS loss. TENN 32-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 39-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TENN 3-9 ATS off BB SU loss vs opp off BB SU losses. TENN 4-18 ATS vs non-div opp off SU loss >10pts. MIA 11-9 ATS before NE. MIA 4-9 ATS L13 on MNF. MIA 13-15 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. MIA 26-29-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 28-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 3-12-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 17-11 ATS before DIV ROAD gm. MIA 12-4-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs conf opp off DD ATS loss. MIA 3-9 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses(last as a FAV). TENN is desperate for something and MIA is so banged up that their QB position has a wanted ad in the national newspapers, just kidding. MIA is banged up all over and still has superstars on OFF. However, it starts with the QB and since Tua will not be back for a few weeks, it could be Sklylar Thompson again or Tim Boyle who filled in for Thompson when he hurt his ribs and it looked like the game was over. Boyle has played in games for five different teams and has been on the roster for six different teams. TENN QB Will Levis is still learning but the DEF for TENN has to give him a chance as well. They need to create some turnovers and get to the QB. The O-LINE needs to do a better job because Levis has already been sacked 15x. TENN CB L’Jarius Sneed got big money so he needs to do a better job in leading the secondary. Last season in week 14 TENN shocked MIA, @MIA, 28-27 with great DEF and Levis played a very good game after making a costly mistake early. The MIA DEF is overrated and banged up and they have a paltry 6sacks & 2INTS. TENN has too much talent to be 0-3 and MIA is just overrated. Right now, MIA QB Thompson is questionable with his ribs and if he can’t go Boyle will start. Either way, I like TENN here. Maybe TENN could heel during their bye.     

THE PICK: TENN+1

Monday September 30th, 2024 8:15pm

Seattle Seahawks (3-0), (2-0-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @ Detroit Lions (2-1), (2-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                  SEA+4

LW, SEA @HOME dominated a badly injured MIA team early then coasted to an easy victory, 24-3. SEA was up 17-3 in the 1st qtr and never looked back. SEA QB Geno Smith didn’t have a great day with 2INTs but the SEA DEF made stops when they needed and kept MIA out of the endzone. The SEA DEF sacked MIA QBs 6x. MIA was forced to punt 6x and could not get anything going. Smith dd enough in this game to keep the ball away from MIA and the running game helped him out with 100 yds rushing. LW, DET got back on track @ARZ. I said that they would bounce back after their loss @HOME vs TB and they did. DET held ARZ to 1td and 2fgs but, DET did not score a point in the 2nd half after leading ARZ 20-10 at the half. In the 2nd half the ARZ DEF & the DET DEF made critical stops from DET extending the lead and ARZ getting into the endzone. DET won the game 20-13. The 1-2 RB combo for DET of David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 188yds & 1td on 39carries. ARZ had no answer for them and maybe DET should have used them more since they were so successful. DET is getting more banged up as the weeks progress. DET TE Sam LaPorta hurt his right ankle and is questionable for this game. SEA 16-6 ATS on MNF. SEA 3-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. SEA 28-28-3 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SEA 24-27-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. SEA 5-7 SU & 5-5-2 ATS L12 AWAY vs NFC NORTH. SEA 1-10 ATS off BB SU wins (last by Double Digits) vs opp off SU win. SEA 16-4-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-2 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-3 ATS as a conf DOG >1pt off SUATS win. SEA 7-4 ATS as a DOG off non-conf HOME gm. SEA 13-2 ATS vs .500> non-div conf opp. SEA 2-11 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG off DD ATS win. 2-10 ATS as a non-div conf ROAD DOG vs .500>opp. SEA 9-9 ATS AWAY off non-conf opp vs conf opp. DET 9-4 ATS on MNF. DET 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. DET 6-11 ATS since 2007 before their bye. DET 38-23 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 40-41 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 28-35-1 ATS L63 HOME vs non-div. DET 3-19 ATS w/non-div revenge vs opp off SU win. DET 4-3 ATS vs opp off SUATS win. DET DET 10-2 ATS L12 vs non-div opp off SUATS win. Here are a few tidbits that you won’t hear anywhere else. SEA has beaten DET in 2021, 2022 & 2023. In 2021 SEA @HOME beat DET 51-29. In 2022 SEA won again @DET in a shootout, 48-45 and it wasn’t that close. In 2023 SEA beat DET @DET, 37-31 in OT. Overall L8 SEA vs DET, SEA 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS. What does SEA know about DET? Smith spread the ball around in these games very well and his O-LINE gave him protection. In the 2021 meeting Tim Boyle was the QB for DET while Russell Wilson was the QB for SEA. But for some reason SEA has a spell over DET. SEA is playing good football and they are getting to the QB for 11 sacks already. Yes, SEA has beaten some not so good teams in vs DEN, @NE & now MIA. DET will be a big test. DET has beaten LAR, lost vs TB and then won @ARZ. They haven’t been gang busters either and are maybe trying to find themselves too. The book on DET QB Jared Goff is that if you pressure him, he will make mistakes and that is what SEA has to do. They have to continue their play like they did vs MIA. DET hasn’t been scoring points for a team with a lot of weapons. SEA RB Kenneth Walker is questionable for this game but, they could really use him to take some pressure off of Geno. I think this will be a close game as it usually is but I like SEA with the points. They have a spell on DET and DET is not playing like they should even with all their weapons. The SEA DEF needs to stop the DET 1-2 RB combo and put it all on Goff. I don’t think SEA or DET will run away with this one and I like SEA with the points. Of course turnovers will play heavy here if either team starts to lose control of the game.  

THE PICK: SEA+4