2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 13
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 13 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday November 28th, 2024 12:30 pm
Chicago Bears (4-7), (6-4-1) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Detroit Lions (10-1), (9-1-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS CHI+10 ½
LW, CHI @HOME was trailing 24-10 in the 4th qtr to MINN and it didn’t look good. I liked CHI+3 but CHI fought their way back to a 27-27 tie. CHI scored 17pts in the 4th qtr while MINN only managed a fg. This game went to OT where CHI could do nothing and MINN put together a drive that culminated in a fg and a 30-27 win. The run game for CHI was non-existent because MINN is fantastic vs the run. But CHI QB Caleb Williams did his best with 32/47 passing, 340yds, 2tds & 0turnovers while being sacked 3x. LW, DET keeps rolling. I liked DET-7 ½ @INDY because INDY is not that good and DET is playing at a level higher than anyone else. I knew DET wasn’t putting up another 50pts but they certainly weren’t losing or having a close game with INDY. INDY started with a lead of 3-0 but then DET took over and it was 14-6 at the half. DET added another td & a fg to make the final, DET 24-6. DET toyed with INDY while getting ready for Thanksgiving. DET QB Jared Goff spread the ball around to 7different receivers while the DET RBs Montgomery & Gibbs combined for 127yds & 3tds on 29carries. L17 CHI @ DET, CHI 8-9 SU & 7-9-1 ATS. L30 DET vs CHI, HOME 17-11-2 ATS. L28 CHI vs DET , CHI 13-13-2 ATS. L27 CHI vs DET, HOME 16-9-2 ATS. CHI 4-6 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. CHI 15-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CHI 23-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 32-51-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 30-36 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. CHI 10-4 ATS after MINN. CHI 7-12 ATS on TNF. CHI 9-4 ATS vs .500> div opp off DD SU win. CHI 5-1 ATS L6 AWAY vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DET 9-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DET 24-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 35-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 33-26-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 6-15 ATS before GB. DET 13-1 ATS off DD ATS win. CHI is in the midst of a 5game losing streak. I liked CHI this past week because I felt something had to give and the losing needed to stop. They gave MINN all they could handle but in the end MINN threw the ball all over the place and CHI couldn’t stop them. DET is even better at passing the ball than MINN and MINN QB Sam Darnold passed for 330yds. Sam Darnold! As I said the CHI DEF disappears at times and that is a problem. It happened vs MINN, they woke up late, then went back to sleep in OT. CHI #17 TOT DEF w/#20 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. DET is making sure to steamroll every team that gets in their way and is making no doubt that the NFC playoffs will go through DET. DET HC Dan Campbell is using his entire playbook to make sure that DET does not leave points on the field. L12 on Thanksgiving, DET 4-8 SU but 6-5-1 ATS. DET vs CHI L4 on Thanksgiving CHI 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. With a healthy duo of RBs Montgomery & Gibbs taking a lot of pressure off of QB Goff, the OFF cannot be stopped. There is no letdown with DET. In DET’s last three games @HOME they have scored 42, 52 & 52 pts, crazy! I would lay the points here as DET is going to show the rest of the NFL what they are made of. No let up as DET rolls again. Lay the points here as DET wins by at least 2tds.
THE PICK: DET-10 ½
Thursday November 28th, 2024 4:30pm
New York Giants (2-9), (2-9) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (0-5) HOME, (0-5) ATS NYG+2 ½
LW, I liked NYG @HOME +6 vs TB. I thought QB Tommy DeVito would give NYG a spark. It was pitiful. TB had the sparks and the dynamite and it was TB 30-0 in the 4th qtr. It ended up 30-7. TB beat NYG in every category on the field and it was easy pickings. NYG DEF didn’t even sack TB QB Baker Mayfield 1x. TB which is not necessarily known as a running team, rushed for a combined 156yds & 4tds on 32 carries vs NYG. LW, DAL was a heavy DOG+10 ½ @WASH. I said this was a payback game for so many reasons for WASH. DAL came to play and ended up winning 34-26 in a wild one. The 4th qtr alone produced 41pts between WASH & DAL. Bad coaching by WASH HC Dan Quinn is what cost WASH the game. The WASH DEF was not ready for DAL and there was so much wild scoring in this game, go see the replays. But above all, DAL QB Cooper Rush played a good game passing 24/32, 247yds, 2tds & 0 turnovers. L17 NYG @DAL, NYG 5-12 SU & 7-9-1 ATS. L15 DAL vs NYG, DAL 14-1 SU & 12-3 ATS. L31 DAL vs NYG, ROAD 17-13-1 ATS. NYG 5-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 35-32 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 40-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 7-5 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs div opp. NYG 5-15 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 10-6 ATS on TNF. NYG 8-5 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYG 7-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. NYG 0-7 ATS AWAY w/revenge of BB SUATS losses. NYG 8-20 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 1-8 ATS as a ROAD DOG 9<pts w/revenge vs opp off SU win. NYG 3-10 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs opp off SU win. 3-9 ATS off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 9-5 ATS vs <.500 opp off SUATS win. DAL 12-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DAL 33-48-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 34-30 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. DAL 32-38-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 9-8 ATS after WASH. DAL 15-4 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL 27-10 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 7-8-1 ATS off SU win vs <.500div opp w/revenge. DAL 10-3 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.600opp. DAL 16-4 ATS off SU win vs .333<opp. NYG is a pathetic team and it shows that it is not just at the QB position. The coaching staff is bad too as the O-LINE is too. I have spoken about the O-LINE many times and it doesn’t get better. DAL is not going to the playoffs but can win some games and be a spoiler down the stretch. This is the usual game for DAL on Thanksgiving. L12 on Thanksgiving, DAL is 5-7 SU but 2-10 ATS. NYG can’t stop anyone and DAL can’t stop anyone good. NYG #19 TOT DEF w/#7 PASS DEF & #30 RUSH DEF. NYG really doesn’t get blown out in games but they don’t score enough to make the score really close. They fall short of even the spread. DAL QB Cooper Rush is a decent QB. If he had a chance to sign with another team, he could take them to the playoffs. He’s that good. NYG RB Tyrone Tracy is good and DAL has to prepare for him. NYG usually give DAL a run for their money but this team is just playing the string trying not to get hurt. DAL will certainly clean house after the season as too will NYG. But this week, I like DAL winning by a td.
THE PICK: DAL-2 ½
Thursday November 28th, 2024 8:20pm
Miami Dolphins (5-6), (5-5-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (8-3), (5-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, GB-5 ½ @HOME beat a depleted and overrated SF team, so what! I liked SF to keep it close but they didn’t show up. Yes, GB looked good on both sides of the ball and this game was over at halftime. GB went run heavy and rushed for 169yds & 3tds on 42carries while GB QB Jordan Love sprinkled passes all over for 13/23, 163yds 2tds & 0turnovers. GB had a 17-7 lead at half and went on to win 38-10. SF was never a threat in this game as SF QB Brock Purdy did not play. LW, MIA @HOME was a FAV-7 ½ vs NE. I thought that NE would just keep it close but it wasn’t meant to be as MIA won 34-15. This game was also over at halftime as MIA scored 24pts in the 2nd qtr to lead 24-0. Even though MIA only managed 65yds on the ground, MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa was on fire for 29/40, 317yds, 4tds & 0turnovers. NE was never a threat in this game and the MIA DEF stopped NE from getting any points the first seven possessions that NE had. MIA turned 2NE fumbles into 10pts. L5 MIA vs GB, MIA 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. MIA 1-6 ATS AWAY on TNF. MIA 4-7 ATS L11 on TNF. MIA 1-6 ATS as a ROAD DOG on TNF. MIA 6-12 ATS 1NL after NE. MIA 11-9-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 27-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 32-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 0-10 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins vs .700>opp. GB 10-7 ATS as a FAV on TNF. GB 14-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. GB 12-8 ATS before DET. GB 42-27-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 62-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 1-8 ATS @HOME off DD SU non-div win. GB 5-14-1 ATS off DD non-div win. GB 9-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. Both of these teams are playing for potential playoff spots. GB has a better record and a better shot at a wild card. MIA is treating every game like a playoff game and is making sure that all the bases are covered. Recently, the MIA DEF has really been playing well. Even though the last three games have been @LAR, LV & NE, MIA has made sure that they have been in control of the game. MIA #7 TOT DEF w/#9 RUSH DEF & #8 PASS DEF. The MIA DEF is underrated but they need to step up for this game as this will be the toughest game that is left on their schedule. For GB, QB Jordan Love, he’s due for a bad game. He tends to get into trouble when there is pressure put on him. The key for MIA is to put a lot of pressure on him and take away the run game from GB so that Love feels that he has to win the game by himself. LW against SF, Love was under no pressure as the run game bailed him out. As for MIA, they have to spread the OFF out so much, that GB has no clue where the ball is going. The run game has to be more dependable so that Tua will have lanes on which to throw the ball. GB #12 RUSH DEF. MIA needs to get about 90yds rushing to keep the GB secondary guessing. MIA knows that with this win, they will be at .500 and they can realistically believe that they can make the playoffs. If they lose, it will be tough to make it at 5-7. I like MIA to win this game knowing that they are desperate to win. Take MIA & the points.
THE PICK: MIA+3 ½
Friday November 29th, 2024 3:00pm
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9), (3-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), (4-6-1) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (2-3) ATS LV+13
LW, I liked DEN-5 @LV. It was close to the end, not that LV had a chance of winning but LV covering the spread. LV had 1st and goal at the DEN 1yard line with :20 left and couldn’t score. The score was final at DEN 29-19. But more bad news for LV, QB Gardner Minshew suffered a broken collarbone on a sack and is out for the remainder of the season. Desmond Ridder came in and tried to lead a spark but couldn’t do any damage vs DEN. The LV DEF did stop DEN from running the ball but LV didn’t get much yardage on the ground either facing the very tough DEN DEF. LW, I knew CAR+11 @HOME vs KC would give KC all they could handle. I said it was their SuperBowl. Sure enough, KC needed a carefully devised drive by QB Pat Mahomes to put KC in a position to get a last second fg to win 30-27. KC was able to run the ball over CAR and opened up leads in this game 20-6 & 27-16 but CAR came storming back. As usual, it took the heroics of Mahomes to get KC into the win column. L17 LV @KC, LV 8-9 SU & 10-7 ATS. L34 LV vs KC, ROAD 20-14 SU & 21-13 ATS. L34 LV vs KC, DOG 18-14 ATS 2PICK’EMS. L15 LV vs KC, KC 12-3 SU & 8-7 ATS. LV 12-15 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LV 30-40-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LV 24-46-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 35-56-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 6-9 ATS after DEN. LV 21-6 ATS as a div ROAD DOG >3pts off SU loss. LV 8-4 ATS off SU div HOME loss. LV 14-11-1 ATS off SU div loss. LV 7-4 ATS AWAY off SU div loss. LV 7-2 ATS off SU div HOME loss vs conf opp. KC 11-13 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 41-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 46-39-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 41-29 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 3-13-1 ATS after a non-conf ROAD gm. KC 8-18 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs <.500opp. KC 8-15 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. Crazy as it may sound, but I like LV+13 @KC. LV has nothing to lose and should be loose for this game. They know changes are coming and they are having another terrible season. But, for them too, this is their SuperBowl. In the 1st meeting in wk 8 @LV, KC won 27-20. LV got a back door cover in that game as KC took a 27-14 lead late and LV put together a drive that culminated with a td. The spread was KC-9 ½ . KC has not been playing championship football this season but has still found ways to win games. KC #4 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #18 PASS DEF. It may look good on paper but at times the KC DEF has been vulnerable and not playing as well as they did in 2023. Also, without CB L’Jarius Sneed who was traded to TENN in the off-season, the KC secondary is a little weaker. Aidan O’Connell will start @QB for LV and the LV team needs to get something going. They have lost 7straight games and should have a high draft choice next season. Maybe they can take a QB? I really think that with LV being in the AFC WEST with KC, they get tired of being beat by KC and hearing everything about KC. I don’t think that LV will win the game but for a few reasons, I think LV keeps it close. KC has not been good at winning big. They have been winning ugly and will probably continue to do so. That is why I like LV with the points.
THE PICK: LV+13
Sunday December 1st, 2024 1:00pm
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), (7-3-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (6-5), (5-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS ATL+1 ½
LW on MNF, I knew BALT would take it to LAC. LAC was leading BALT in the 2nd qtr, 10-0 but, BALT is a slow starting team and then they took it into high gear with 2tds in the 2nd qtr. LAC would never lead in this game and found themselves down 30-16 in the 4th qtr. LAC added a dummy td with :46 left that made the final score respectable at 30-23. The LAC DEF couldn’t stop the BALT rushing attack. BALT rushed for 212yds & 2tds on 37carries. ATL is coming off a bye. Before that, they were trounced @DEN, 38-6. ATL was never in this game and DEN was dominant on both sides of the ball. ATL QB Kirk Cousins left the onslaught in favor of rookie QB Michael Penix. ATL got 2fgs in the 1st half and it was DEN 21-6 at the half. The DEN DEF shut down the ATL run game to 50yds & 0tds on 21 carries. ATL came out lame and it was over early. L6 LAC vs ATL, LAC 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS, ROAD 4-2 ATS. LAC 16-17-3 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 11-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAC 36-33-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 37-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 6-18-2 ATS before KC. LAC 4-17 ATS vs opp w/rest. ATL 12-10 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. ATL 11-6 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. ATL 32-33-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 35-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 6-12 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 9-1 ATS w/rest vs opp off SU loss. ATL 5-2 ATS L7 before MNF. LAC is a team on the rise but they can’t beat very good teams. LAC RB JK Dobbins hurt his knee vs BALT and will be out some time. That is not good for LAC who have their own 1-2 RB punch along with Gus Edwards. Granted the LAC 1-2 RB punch is not as good as some others in the NFL but it does take some pressure off of QB Justin Herbert. Herbert has only thrown 1INT in 11games this season. That’s pretty good but LAC is only 7-4 and only one of their wins is vs a playoff caliber team. They have beaten LV, @CAR, @DEN, NO, @CLEV, TENN & CINNCY. They have lost to @PITT, KC, @ARZ & BALT. Do you see a trend here? ATL is a faker. They also have not really beaten anyone good and seem to fold when they should be killing it. They have beaten @PHILLY, NO, TB, @CAR, @TB & DAL. They have lost to PITT, KC, SEA, @NO & @DEN. The only playoff caliber team ATL has beaten was @PHILLY early in the season. PHILLY has figured it out and is looking at the #2 seed. ATL is on a 2game losing streak and fading fast. They started out nicely but struggled against teams that at least on paper ATL was superior. Cousins is a QB that if you pressure him, he will fold. I was right about the LAC DEF. They are all flair and not great. Where were they vs BALT? You want to make a statement? Beat a team like BALT then people will be talking. I like LAC here because LAC is better coached and I’m sure that LAC HC Jim Harbaugh gave the LAC DEF a tongue lashing after last game. They will certainly look better this game and attack whoever is the ATL QB. Cousins is not mobile and will be a sitting duck for OLBs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack. Look for LAC to bounceback while ATL will fade unless LAC gets turnoveritous and gives this game away to ATL. ATL will have at least 2INTS no matter who is the QB. The LAC DEF will step it up after the loss to BALT. This game is almost a PICK’EM but I like LAC to win by a td. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: LAC-1 ½
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), (6-5) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS PITT+3
LW on TNF, PITT should never have lost @CLEV. PITT was coming off a close win @HOME vs BALT and should have been riding high. Instead they came up a dud vs a CLEV team that had no business competing against PITT. In the 1st half, PITT couldn’t do anything right and dug themselves a hole trailing 10-3. In the 2nd half, with snow coming down, PITT came back and actually took the lead 19-18 but then let CLEV drive down the field very late in the 4th qtr with :57 left and get a td to win 24-19. This is a game where the PITT DEF didn’t do its job when it was needed most. The PITT DEF sacked CLEV QB Jameis Winston 1x, while PITT QB Russell Wilson was sacked 4x. CINNCY is coming off a bye, but before that they lost @LAC on SNF, 34-27. This game is a tale of two games. CINNCY dug themselves a hole of trailing 27-6 in the 3rd qtr but found a way to tie the game at 27-27. Then they missed 2fgs down the stretch which certainly would have won the game for CINNCY. The CINNCY DEF then gave up a drive to LAC that culminated with a td and the win for LAC 34-27. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was on fire in the 2nd half as the LAC DEF went to sleep but it was the special teams for CINNCY that cost CINNCY the game. L17 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 13-4 SU & 10-6-1 ATS> L23 PITT @CINNCY, PITT 16-6-1 ATS. L24 PITT vs CINNCY, PITT 17-7 SU & 14-10 ATS. L27 PITT vs CINNCY, FAV 14-12-1 ATS. L25 PITT vs CINNCY, HOME FAV 11-10-1 ATS. PITT 13-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PITT 31-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 30-27-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 26-16 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 10-9 ATS before CLEV. PITT 11-5 ATS after CLEV. PITT 13-8 ATS before div HOME gm. CINNCY 9-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. CINNCY 50-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 27-25 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 29-23 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 9-10-1 ATS w/rest(Thrs, bye). CINNCY 2-4 ATS as a FAV w/rest. Both of these teams know each other very well. PITT is playing to stay atop of the AFC NORTH. While CINNCY thinks that they still have a shot at some kind of playoff spot. Realistically, CINNCY’s season is over and they are just playing spoiler. PITT has a legitimate shot at the AFC NORTH crown but their schedule going forward is brutal. After CINNCY, PITT plays @HOME vs CLEV, @PHILLY, @BALT, KC & vs CINNCY. These are not easy games but will certainly show the true character of who PITT really is. CINNCY has a pretty easy schedule with games @DAL, @TENN, vs CLEV, vs DEN & @PITT. DEN is tough and depending where PITT is at the end of the season, that could be really easy or really hard. The key for PITT is stopping QB Joe Burrow. If you stop him, CINNCY folds. They don’t have a reliable running game so when the pressure is on, he’s throwing it either WRs Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase. Those are his go-to guys. PITT #4 RUSH DEF. Forget about CINNCY RB Chase Brown having a great day, PITT will stop that cold and put it all on Burrow’s shoulders. PITT OLB TJ Watt needs to have a better game after a so-so game vs CLEV. The PITT D-LINE needs to be aggressive because the go-to guys for CINNCY always seem to get the ball. I like PITT in a bounceback here and with the points. If PITT loses here, they might fall down and never get back up.
THE PICK: PITT+3
Arizona Cardinals (6-5), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2), (8-2-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS ARZ+3 ½
LW, MINN held CHI RBs to 45yds in an OT win @CHI, 30-27. I liked CHI @HOME +3 and it looked like a bad choice when MINN was up 27-16 with 1:56 to go. But wouldn’t you know it, “it ain’t over til it’s over” and CHI scored 10pts in 22seconds to send this game to OT tied at 27, go figure. In OT, CHI lost their mojo and MINN took the ball and drove down the field for the winning fg. MINN RB Aaron Jones ran all over CHI for 106yds & 1td on 22 carries. CHI had no answer for him which opened the door for MINN QB Sam Darnold to drop passes to 7different receivers. Darnold didn’t turn the ball over but the MINN DEF went missing in the 4th qtr. LW, ARZ had their chances @SEA but couldn’t get it done in a 16-6 loss. The devastating blow in this game was the errant pass by ARZ QB Kyler Murray that sailed and was returned for a td by SEA. This was the difference in this game. Plus, ARZ could not get their run game going which put a lot of pressure on Murray to deliver. SEA made stops on ARZ when necessary and disrupted the game plan of ARZ who were looking for the win. I thought ARZ would win outright and this was a very tight game but the PICK6 was the backbreaker that ARZ couldn’t recover from. L11 ARZ vs MINN, ARZ 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. ARZ 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ARZ 49-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 32-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 10-6-1 ATS after SEA. ARZ 15-7 ATS before SEA. ARZ 5-6 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts. ARZ 14-4 ATS AWAY vs .700> non-div opp. MINN 4-4 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. MINN 9-7 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MINN 34-36-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 32-43-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 10-6 ATS after CHI. MINN 9-4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV off BB SU wins. MINN 4-9 ATS @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 16-3 ATS off SU div win vs .600<non-div opp. MINN is very tough against the run. MINN #1 RUSH DEF. ARZ likes to run especially with RB James Conner & QB Kyler Murray. ARZ will attempt to run and like all others, get shut down. That means that they will have to pass a lot. MINN will be waiting. Plus ARZ is not that great vs the run. ARZ #17 RUSH DEF. MINN RB Aaron Jones is having a nice season but needs a signature game. This could be that game. ARZ is having a nice comeback season if you will but MINN knows that they need to keep up with GB if they want that position for at least a HOME game in the playoffs. MINN cannot lose. MINN signed former NYG QB Daniel Jones as a backup this week. Wouldn’t it be a kick in the head if he won some games for MINN, after leaving NYG? ARZ is in a position they haven’t been in a few years and that is, actually battling for a playoff spot. But it is a learning experience for ARZ with a curve and they are playing a team that is better and needs to keep wining. I like MINN here laying the points. MINN should win by at least a td.
THE PICK: MINN-3 ½
Indianapolis Colts (5-7), (6-5-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (3-9), (4-7-1) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-3-1) ATS NE+2 ½
LW, did anyone even think that INDY would either play it close or even beat DET? Please, get real. INDY had no shot and that was my PICK of the week. INDY managed 2fgs vs a team that is determined to see their 1st SuperBowl. DET toyed with INDY and could have probably scored 40pts. INDY punted 4x and had a turnover on downs in the 2nd half vs DET, that was it. DET took it easy in the 2nd half making sure they got rest for Thanksgiving. The final score was DET 24-6. LW, I thought NE would play closer than they did @MIA. MIA was up 31-0 in the 3rd qtr and there was no hope for that. MIA is completely focused on making a run while NE is trying to see who will be on the team in 2025. NE managed 2dummy tds in the 4th qtr and lost 34-15. The NE secondary couldn’t stop MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa passing for 29/40 for 317yds, 4tds & 0turnovers. L15 INDY vs NE, INDY 6-9 SU but 8-6-1 ATS. INDY 12-13 ATS L25 as ROAD FAV. INDY 11-5-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. INDY 39-40-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 38-35-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 15-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV vs <.500opp. INDY 27-15-1 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 8-1-1 ATS as a FAV after scoring <14pts. INDY 22-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 11-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. INDY 3-8 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SUATS loss. INDY 15-7 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 1-6 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU loss. INDY 8-2 ATS L190 vs AFC EAST. NE 7-11-2 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. NE 10-7 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. NE 12-8 ATS after MIA. NE 27-18-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-27-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 14-4 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 17-17-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. These are two teams going nowhere. Don’t kid yourself, INDY is not that good. They have some sparks but QB Anthony Richardson is not an NFL QB. INDY is stuck with him and will keep losing until they can get an NFL caliber QB. Richardson is at 47% completion rating. That is not sustainable in the NFL. After INDY doesn’t pick up his 5th year option, he should try the CFL. INDY did beat PITT but that was vs QB Justin Fields and INDY has some kind of spell over PITT. This happens and certain teams no matter how good, fall flat against certain teams. NE is in a rebuild. QB Drake Maye is the real deal but needs an O-LINE to protect him. If they can gat a half decent O-LINE, NE will be good, not Tom Brady good, but good. I thought NE would hang around with MIA last week but MIA is treating every game like a playoff game. They are not taking anything for granted and are playing the way they should be. INDY is terrible vs the run. INDY #27 RUSH DEF. NE should go run heavy to take pressure off of Maye and let him get comfortable. INDY likes to run because QB Richardson is a run 1st, throw 2nd type of QB. NE #18 RUSH DEF is decent and can make plays which would pressure Richardson into doing something he doesn’t like to do and that is throw the ball. NE is going to win this game outright with DEF. Both of these teams are on bouncebacks but NE is used to bad weather as INDY is soft playing in a dome. Look for NE to get the win and stop INDY from even mentioning making the playoffs.
THE PICK: NE+2 ½
Seattle Seahawks (6-5), (5-5-1) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ New York Jets (3-8), (3-8) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS NYJ+2
LW, I liked ARZ+1 @SEA. But SEA stymied the ARZ OFF and held them to 2fgs in a 16-6 win. ARZ couldn’t get their run game going and that’s what hurt them. SEA was waiting because ARZ Kyler Murray threw an INT that was returned for a td. That was the difference in this game. SEA didn’t do anything great but was the recipient of a mistake that they turned into pts. SEA did a good job of containing ARZ QB Murray from taking off and stopped the RAZ run game for a total of 49yds. SEA also sacked Murray 5x. SEA QB Geno Smith did have an INT in the redzone and ARZ was able to turn it into 3pts but SEA played tough DEF and ARZ could not get going. NYJ are coming off a bye. Before their bye, they lost a heartbreaker @HOME to INDY. I liked INDY +4 in that game because let’s face it, NYJ are terribly coached & QB Aaron Rodgers looks very old out there. I knew this game would be close and INDY had a chance of blowing it open. INDY won in dramatic fashion after NYJ was leading 14-13, 17-16, 24-16 & 27-22. The DEF for NYJ could not make stops when they needed and INDY won the game 28-27 with a drive in the last two minutes of the game that culminated with INDY QB Anthony Richardson rushing for 4yds and a td with :46 left. NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers stats may look good but he misses key throws and can’t run like he used to. L6 SEA vs NYJ, SEA 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS. SEA 11-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SEA 16-18-2 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 38-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 38-33 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SEA 7-13 ATS before ARZ. SEA 11-8 ATS after ARZ. SEA 5-12 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs ,.500 non-div opp. SEA 16-5 ATS off div HOME gm vs non-div opp. NYJ 26-29-1 ATS L56 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 9-14-1 ATS before MIA. NYJ 48-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 28-42-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 6-10-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. NYJ 11-0 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. NYJ 0-6 ATS L6 @HOME vs NFC WEST. On paper, NYJ is better than SEA. But that is why they play the games. SEA has been inconsistent and you don’t know which team will show up from week to week. NYJ are just bad even though they are stacked with talent. They just can’t get it together and look like a deer in the headlights. Every week, Rodgers talks a good game but can’t seem to get it done on the field and they find a way to lose. SEA #20 TOT DEF w/#23 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. SEA has DEF that sometimes goes to sleep. They have certainly lost some games that they could have won and they would have a comfortable lead instead of fighting for a playoff berth in the NFC WEST. This is a must win game for SEA if they want to be in the mix for the playoffs. NYJ are just playing out the string and NYJ should clean house after the season. NYJ have a decent DEF but again, they disappear at times too because they spend more time on the field than the OFF does. NYJ #8 TOT DEF w/ #22 RUSH DEF & #2 PASS DEF. Look for SEA to go heavy on the run to take pressure off of QB Geno Smith. With this combination as INDY did SEA should get a nice win. If SEA tries to force the ball in the air, they will lose to NYJ. I look for SEA to win in a hard fought game by between 3-7pts. Lay the pts here.
THE PICK: SEA-2
Tennessee Titans (3-8), (2-9) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-5), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS TENN+5 ½
Was I the only one who liked TENN+8 ½ @HOU last week? Give me a shout out if you are reading this. I loved them because HOU & QB CJ Stroud are not the same team that they were in 2023. I felt HOU was ripe for the picking and I was so right. TENN played a game that went back and forth and even though TENN QB Will Levis was sacked 8x he did not lose his composure. The TENN DEF held HOU RB Joe Mixon to 22yds rushing. While TENN RB Tony Pollard rushed for 119yds & 1td on 24carries. TENN came up BIG in the 4th qtr and beat HOU in HOU 32-27. It was a very nice win for TENN and their players and HOU has gone backwards. LW, WASH blew a BIG opportunity to stick it to DAL. I gave my reasons why I liked WASH-10 ½ (1) HC Dan Quinn & (2) double bounceback. Well, WASH looked like crap on both sides of the ball and deserved to lose. They did, after a wild 4th qtr that saw 41pts scored. The WASH DEF couldn’t make a stop all game and they are inexperienced in games that matter. That’s what happens when you have a team that has a culture of losing for so long. DAL won 34-26. L5 TENN vs WASH, TENN 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. TENN 12-11-1 ATS, 1NL in 2nd of BB RGs. TENN 28-35-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 29-34-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 8-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. TENN 9-19 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 5-16 ATS before JAGS. TENN 6-9-1 ATS 1NL after HOU. WASH 5-12 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. WASH 7-10 ATS after DAL. WASH 10-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. WASH 24-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 33-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 10-7 ATS L17 as a non-conf FAV. WASH 10-14 ATS as a HOME FAV 2pts> vs non-div. WASH 13-7 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 15-9 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 14-23 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 8-2 ATS L10 as a FAV >1pt off BB SUATS losses. TENN is finding out about themselves late in the season. Maybe Will Levis is the answer @QB as long he has some support. WASH is showing everyone that they are fakers. They really haven’t beaten anyone and lose to everyone that is >.500. But, this is a dangerous game for WASH because TENN has talent on both sides of the ball and can beat a team that thinks they are easy. WASH has lost 3straight and in jeopardy of being out of the race for the playoffs. After this game, WASH has a tough schedule the rest of the way and if they are not careful, WASH could lose all of them and end up <.500. TENN can play spoiler and their schedule the rest of the way is not that tough. TENN needs players to fill in gaps and next season they will be a lot better. But first, they have to get through this season. I like TENN to keep it close. WASH wins by a fg as long as TENN doesn’t give WASH extra opportunities to score. I like TENN & the points here.
THE PICK: TENN+5 ½
Houston Texans (7-5), (4-6-2) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-2-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9), (5-5-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS JAGS+5
LW, I liked TENN+8 ½ @HOU. I have said and others are now picking up that HOU QB CJ Stroud is not playing like he did last season. He does not have the poise and the wherewithal in the pocket that he did before. Hence, TENN gave them a dogfight that they were not expecting. I liked TENN BIG because HOU is not playing well no matter what their record says. TENN gave HOU a dogfight and it was a battle to the end with TENN winning outright 32-27. Stroud had 2INTs that were fortunately only turned into 3pts by TENN. But the usually reliable run game for HOU only managed 40yds which put a lot of pressure on Stroud to deliver. The HOU DEF did sack TENN QB Will Levis 8x and did get a PICK6 but the HOU OFF missed a fg late in the game and couldn’t deliver when needed. JAGS were on a bye. But before their bye, they were slammed @DET, 52-6. I predicted that the game would be 50-14 so I wasn’t that far off. But JAGS actually led in this game 3-0 before the roof caved in. JAGS Mac Jones was in @QB for the injured Trevor Lawrence. DET ran over JAGS like a MAC truck. At the half it DET 28-6 and it was over. L17 HOU @JAGS, HOU 11-6 SU & 11-6 ATS. L25 HOU vs JAGS , RAOD 18-7 ATS. L13 HOU vs JAGS, HOU 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS. HOU 12-4-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. HOU 7-8-2 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 5-12-1 ATS after TENN. HOU 21-29-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 22-22-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 14-19-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 8-6-1 ATS off an SU FAV loss. HOU 11-10-1 ATS after DD ATS loss. HOU 7-1 ATS after div HOME gm. JAGS 22-24 ATS L46 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 10-6-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. JAGS 11-7 ATS before TENN. JAGS 28-22 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. JAGS 32-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 36-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 7-2 ATS as a div HOME DOG <6pts. JAGS 12-7-1 ATS w/rest. JAGS 10-4 ATS w/rest vs <.600opp. JAGS 1-8 ATS as a HOME DOG <14pts w/revenge. JAGS 6-20 ATS vs opp off SU FAV loss. JAGS have fallen worse than other times in their history because this team has talent at many positions. Unfortunately, they are not showing up at crucial moments and JAGS are getting slammed week after week. Who knows if JAGS HC Doug Pederson will be the JAGS HC next season? This team needs to do an entire evaluation and build off of there. HOU needs to get back to what made them special last season. They were more aggressive and Stroud was certainly seeing things more clearly. This season with RB Joe Mixon giving great run support, you would think that Stroud would have better numbers. However, he is playing worse like he regressed. HOU is barley beating teams and losing to teams they should beat. But cheer up fans, HOU plays the JAGS in a major bounceback scenario. HOU has lost 3out of the last four games and needs to get the OFF back running smoothly again. What better way to do that than play JAGS, who seem to be the current punching bag of the NFL? JAG QB Trevor Lawrence is currently questionable for this game but whether he plays or doesn’t this team is facing an angry HOU team. The DEF for HOU can play lights out but at times has been susceptible to the BIG play. HOU #5 TOT DEF w/#10 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. They need to take over games and shut opposing OFFs down. These two teams met in wk 4 @HOU with HOU winning 24-20 but HOU barely won after being a FAV-6. HOU will get the sweep here as HOU looks good for this game before going into their bye. HOU has a tough schedule after their bye, vs MIA, @KC, vs BALT & @TENN. HOU needs this game to go into their bye feeling better. Look for HOU RB Joe Mixon to run wild in this game. JAGS #26 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here as HOU should roll.
THE PICK: HOU-5
Sunday December 1st, 2024 4:00pm
Los Angeles Rams (5-6), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS NO+2 ½
LW on SNF, I knew LAR @HOME wasn’t beating PHILLY. LAR has to have a lot of things go right for a win. PHILLY was overwhelming and the LAR DEF could not stop or even contain PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley. I heard he just ran for another td. Anyway, LAR dug themselves a BIG hole 37-14 and couldn’t climb out of it. The LAR DEF couldn’t create any turnovers and only sacked PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts 1x. LAR added a dummy td at the end to make the final score PHILLY 37-20. LW, NO was on a bye but before that, NO beat CLEV 35-14. RB Taysom Hill did everything but sell hot dogs in this game. He rushed for 138yds & 3tds on 7carries. He also caught 8passes for 50yds and the CLEV DEF couldn’t stop him. He did throw a pass for an INT but CLEV could not turn it into points. This game was 14-14 going into the 4th qtr but NO scored on 3straight possessions to blow the game wide open. NO combined for 214yds rushing & NO QB Derek Carr had a good game with 21/27 passing for 248yds & 2tds. He was sacked only 1x and didn’t have a whole lot of pressure on him during this game. L13 LAR vs NO, LAR 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS. LAR 31-46 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAR 40-31 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 20-16-1 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. LAR 11-3-1 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 10-2 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 12-12-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. LAR 9-5-1 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. NO 9-10-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. NO 9-8 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. NO 29-44-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 30-28-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 10-12 ATS L22 vs NFC WEST. NO 7-7 ATS L14 w/rest. NO 2-5 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs opp off DD SU loss. NO 12-28-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO has won 2straight after firing their HC. They were vs ATL & CLEV. ATL is starting to look like fakers and CLEV is going nowhere. There is a lot of talent on this NO team but sometimes it doesn’t always translate to the field. LAR is fighting for their playoff life because all of a sudden, the NFC WEST is looking average and any average team out of the division can make the playoffs. LAR has a great chance but they have to keep winning. The DEF can’t expect DT Aaron Donald to show up and take over. They need to step up without him. They were completely run over by PHILLY on SNF and LAR are in a bounceback situation. NO #9 RUSH OFF vs LAR #28 RUSH DEF. If LAR is going to win this game, they have to stop the NO team from letting them get their run game going and letting it be effective. LAR must stop it and put all the pressure on NO QB Derek Carr. The playbook on Carr has always been that he panics under pressure. He is due for a bad game as he usually has one after some good games. LAR needs this game after the loss and NO is really not in the playoff hunt even though their schedule is not that tough the rest of the season and they could end up with an above .500 record. Lay the points here as LAR is desperate for a win and on a bounceback.
THE PICK: LAR-2 ½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6), (7-4) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-8), (4-7) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS CAR+5 ½
LW, I liked CAR+11 @HOME vs KC. I said that this was CAR’s SuperBowl and that they would play their hearts out. I was so right and it went down to the wire. I didn’t think CAR would win because Superman wears a red jersey with #15 on it and he did it again. But CAR was down 20-6 & 27-16 and found a way to tie it at 27. But of course, KC QB Pat Mahomes led a last minute drive that culminated in a fg with :00 left for the KC 30-27 win. CAR played as good a game as they have all season and gave KC a run for their money. Can they do it again? LW, TB was -6 @NYG. I didn’t think NYG would win but I at least thought that new NYG QB Tommy DeVito would spark this team and at least keep it close. Well, NYG didn’t do much and TB was leading 30-0 in the 4th qtr when NYG got a dummy td to make the final score 30-7. TB did everything right and NYG did everything wrong. It’s a wonder that the score was worse than it was. TB QB Baker Mayfield wasn’t even sacked and TB rushed for 4tds. L17 TB @CAR, TB 8-9 SU & 10-7 ATS. L34 TB vs CAR, FAV 20-14 ATS. L23 TB vs CAR, ROAD 15-8 ATS. L14 TB vs CAR, TB 9-5 ATS. TB 14-16 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. TB 13-16-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. TB 29-39-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 30-36-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 29-34-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 11-19-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 9-4 ATS vs <.400 div opp. CAR 17-18-1 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. CAR 11-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CAR 36-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 34-23 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 42-28 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 14-10 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 13-10 ATS as a div DOG w/div revenge. CAR 11-17-1 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. CAR has nothing to play for except jobs and maybe being a spoiler. TB is trying to get back to .500 and beyond. But they have only played two games this season worth talking about and that was the win @DET in wk 2 & the win vs PHILLY. TB hasn’t beaten anyone worth talking about. They beat WASH, @NO & @NYG. The wins vs PHILLY & DET were early in the season and I don’t think the current TB team would beat PHILLY or DET BUT, they are BIG wins and can’t be ignored. Also, you would think that TB has a great DEF because HC Todd Bowles has been a DC almost everywhere but TB #29 TOT DEF w/#16 RUSH DEF & #29 PASS DEF. They are susceptible to the play action pass. CAR RB Chubba Hubbard only rushed for 53yds last week vs KC but, how many yards does he get this week? I think he’s due this week. Plus, CAR WR Adam Thielen adds another quality receiver to the lineup that catches everything. I think this game will be closer than the spread but TB finds a way to win by a fg.
THE PICK: CAR+5 ½
Philadelphia Eagles (9-2), (7-4) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (8-4), (7-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS PHILLY+3
LW on MNF, I never had a doubt that BALT would win & cover @LAC. As I said, LAC hasn’t beaten anyone and they should have lost vs CINNCY. BALT was coming off the PITT loss and was on a bounceback. BALT always seems to start slow but they got rolling and it was BALT 30-16 and LAC was looking at trying to come back. BALT RB Derrick Henry was huge with 140yds rushing on 24 carries and the LAC DEF had no answer. LAC could only score a dummy td with :46 left to make the final score BALT 30-23. On SNF, PHILLY made sure there was no doubt who the better team was. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 255yds & 2tds on 26carries. He was unstoppable and the LAR DEF couldn’t contain him. With 314yds combined rushing for PHILLY, QB Jalen Hurts was able to drop in passes and the LAR DEF could not stop the PHILLY OFF. PHILLY led 13-7 at the half and 37-14 in the 4th qtr before LAR added a dummy td with 1:07 left to make the final score PHILLY 37-20. The PHILLY DEF made stops, sacked LAR QB Matthew Stafford 5x and also recovered a fumble in the rout. L5 PHILLY vs BALT, PHILLY 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. 11-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 33-24 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 28-43 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 28-18-1 ATS L47 vs AFC. PHILLY 18-9-1 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 3-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp off SUATS win. PHILLY 5-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. BALT 8-8-1 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. BALT 44-33 ATS @HOME in DEC. BALT 43-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 21-20-1 ATS L42 vs NFC. BALT 16-33-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 10-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-18 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. Both of these teams are playing very good football. PHILLY is on 7game winning streak and not only winning but mostly covering as well which means they are winning convincingly. RB Saquon Barkley has added a new dimension to the OFF that takes a lot of pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts is now able to drop passes all around an opposing DEF that is concentrating on Barkley. Right now, there are no threats to PHILLY capturing the NFC EAST title and their schedule after BALT doesn’t look that tough. It is very likely that PHILLY ends up with the #2seed in the NFC and would probably have to play @DET for the NFC championship. BALT is playing well but has to battle PITT for the AFC NORTH title and try to get a high seed in the AFC playoffs. BALT’s schedule the rest of the way is not that tough too, so they may end up with the #2 seed in the AFC or a possibility at the #1 seed depending on how KC plays the rest of the way. For this game, both teams will try to establish their run game so that the passing game will be complementary. Both teams have extremely powerful run games. PHILLY #1 RUSH OFF vs BALT #2 RUSH OFF. However, BALT has a better RUSH DEF than PHILLY. BALT #2 RUSH DEF vs PHILLY #7 RUSH DEF. But, PHILLY has a much better PASS DEF than BALT. PHILLY #3 PASS DEF vs BALT #31 PASS DEF. No, that wasn’t a misprint. Everyone knows that BALT gives up points in the 4th qtr and that their secondary is weak. PHILLY will be looking at the film on BALT and will take advantage of every opportunity to score. They will use a balanced attack. On DEF PHILLY will definitely zone in on RB Derrick Henry and limit QB Lamar Jackson from taking off. This will be the difference in this game. How this game was not scheduled for PRIMETIME, I don’t know. PHILLY cannot commit turnovers. Turnovers will be huge in this game. Anyway, I like PHILLY to win outright as they have figured it out and have been playing dominant football for most of the season. It should be a good game but PHILLY wins by at least a td.
THE PICK: PHILLY+3
Sunday December 1st, 2024 8:20pm
San Francisco 49ers (5-6), (4-7) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (9-2), (8-3) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (4-1) ATS SF+3 ½
LW, I didn’t think SF would beat GB @GB but come on, at least show an effort. They were without QB Brock Purdy so the spread was SF+5 ½. But the DEF for SF couldn’t make a stop and was hemorrhaging all game. GB took advantage of a SF DEF that was caught standing still and almost non-existent. GB won the game 38-10. Looking back, even with Purdy @QB, I don’t think SF would have won the game. The run game for SF was non-exitentr from the get go and had a total of 44yds on 16carries. GB rushed over SF for 169yds & 3tds on 42carries. BUFF was on a bye. But before their bye, they beat KC in BUFF, 30-21. The turning point of that game was the 4th & 2 and KC didn’t have a spotter & BUFF QB Josh Allen ran the ball 26 yards for the td. It was BUFF 23-21 at that point but BUFF blew the game open with Allen’s td run for the 30-21 lead and the win. This game could have gone the other way had KC made the stop on 4th down but BUFF made the most of an opportunity and prevailed. L5 SF vs BUFF, SF 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. SF 14-16 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SF 32-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 28-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SF 17-22-1 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 5-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. SF 6-6 ATS AWAY on SNF. AF 5-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <6pts. SF 14-11 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. SF 10-16 ATS after allowing 28>pts vs non-div opp. SF 14-6 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3>pts off non-div gm. SF 8-2 ATS L10 as a non-conf DOG. SF 4-9 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. BUFF 6-4 ATS @HOME on SNF. BUFF 5-5 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BUFF 8-2 ATS on SNF vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 10-6-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. BUFF 27-40 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 41-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF is barely hanging on while BUFF is coasting. BUFF is on a mission to go deep into the playoffs or finally get by KC and make it to the SuperBowl. SF hasn’t looked that impressive even when they have a full squad. There have had missed plays, suspect play calling and the DEF sometimes goes to sleep. SF has been banged up all season and the backup have not been making an impact. They are truly showing why they are backups. The kicking game for SF has been inconsistent too. BUFF has lost only 2games. They were a blowout @BALT and a close game @HOU that certainly could have been won by BUFF. Other than those two games, BUFF has been doing the job and beating teams. Right now, they are trying to get to that #1 seed. BUFF #13 TOT OFF w/#12 RUSH OFF & #13 PASS OFF vs SF #6 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #6 PASS DEF. BUFF should be pumped for this game as the rest of their schedule is not that tough except for week 15 @DET. Other than that, all their games are winnable and should be wins that are convincing. As for SF, they are just trying to stay relevant but they have that SuperBowl hangover and Kyle Shanahan as their HC who calls suspect plays at crucial times. Lay the pts here as BUFF will win this game in a hard fought game that is won by at least 7pts. SF will give it their best try but the BUFF DEF will come up BIG vs SF QB Brock Purdy, if he plays. Analysis on this game was done early in the week before the spread changed.
THE PICK: BUFF-3 ½
Monday December 2nd, 2024 8:15pm
Cleveland Browns (3-8), (4-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Denver Broncos (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS CLEV+5 ½
On TNF, CLEV played a good game in the snow @HOME and beat PITT 24-19. PITT was actually winning 19-18 when CLEV QB Jameis Winston & CO put together a nice drive very late and scored the go ahead td to make the score, CLEV 24-19. PITT would get the ball back but couldn’t do anything with it. Had you just looked at the boxscore for this game, you would have thought PITT won. But CLEV hung in there and the PITT DEF was not their usual aggressive self. Winston spread the ball around nicely to 8different receivers and that had the PITT secondary guessing. LW, there was no doubt in my mind that DEN wasn’t winning @LV. But the spread was in trouble at the end of the game. DEN was up 29-19 and LV was driving. LV had a 1st & goal @the DEN 1yd line with :20 left but DEN stopped them on 2plays to end the game. It looked for sure that LV+5 would get the back door cover. But the DEN DEF has been playing very well this season and whatever looks like a sure thing for opposing teams, the DEN DEF has come up BIG. Also, DEN QB Bo Nix is playing at a higher level than he did at the beginning of the season and is not turning the ball over. L9 CLEV vs DEN, CLEV 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS. CLEV 13-17-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CLEV 28-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 2-9 ATS after TNF. CLEV 5-12-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CLEV 5-22-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 5-21 ATS off SUATS win vs .500>opp. CLEV 6-8-2 ATS after PITT. CLEV 11-8-2 ATS before PITT. DEN 4-7-1 ATS on MNF. DEN 9-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. DEN 30-34-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 39-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 5-13 ATS after LV. DEN 7-0 ATS as a FAV 4>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. DEN has a legitimate shot at a wild card berth in the AFC WEST. DEN QB Bo Nix is not turning the ball over and is making great passes. He is spreading the ball around on OFF which makes opposing DEFs only guess where the ball is going. Nix is taking what the DEF gives him and not trying to thread any needles. As for CLEV, they can only play spoiler as their season is once again in the toilet. Going forward, they are playing all playoff teams. After DEN, CLEV plays @PITT, vs KC, @CINNCY, vs MIA & @BALT. All are looking good for the playoffs except CINNCY who is always tough. The DEN DEF has been outstanding against everyone and is totally underrated. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF & #9 PASS DEF. I definitely see the DEN DEF creating some turnovers in this game especially vs Jameis Winston. He is due for a bad game and the DEN DEF can certainly do that to you. They knocked out LV QB Gardner Minshew with a broken collarbone last week and Winston has been susceptible to injuries. If he goes down, spoiler is out of the question. I like DEN here as they continue to roll and create havoc on opposing teams. DEN needs to take this game seriously as they are in a battle with LAC for a possible playoff spot. Lay the points here as DEN should win by at least a td.
THE PICK: DEN-5 ½
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