2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 1 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

NOTE: First game of the season is always difficult to analyze. What you see in training camp and preseason doesn’t always translate to the regular season. What was touted before the regular season doesn’t always show up in the regular season.

Thursday September 5^th, 2024 8:20pm

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs                   BALT+2 ½

KC will be trying to get back to the Superbowl to complete a 3peat. They just brought back WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who was part of the 2022 SuperBowl winning team. This adds to a load of people that QB Pat Mahomes can throw to. Not that he needs any help. BALT added RB Derrick Henry from TENN to take some of the running pressure away from QB Lamar Jackson. The only problem is that Henry is 30 year old and has taken a lot of poundage. Thirty is a crucial age for RBs as their skills tend to diminish as they pass thirty years of age. L9 BALT vs KC, KC 5-4 SU but 4-5 ATS. L4 KC @ HOME vs BALT KC 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS. BALT 2-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. BALT 0-6 ATS as a DOG on TNF. BALT 30-30 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BALT 25-17 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. BALT 8-4 ATS L12 as a ROAD DOG. BALT 10-11 ATS L21 vs AFC WEST. BALT 11-1-1 ATS L13 as a non-div DOG. KC 9-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. KC 12-10 ATS on TNF. KC 10-12 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. KC 29-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. KC 37-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC beat BALT @BALT in the AFC Championship game, so BALT may be feeling a little more up than usual for a little payback. But, SuperBowl Champs are 19-5 SU & 14-8-2 ATS wk 1 of the following season. Mahomes has played Jackson 5x and their record including playoffs is Mahomes vs Jackson, Mahomes 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. If KC stays healthy they will be tough to beat. CB L’Jarius Sneed who seemed to be everywhere for KC last season is now with TENN. Let’s see who steps up in his place. This should be an exciting game but let’s see who steps up for both teams. Last season I liked DET because I felt they needed to show a statement but KC knows BALT but BALT sometimes gets in their own way. I like KC here @HOME with the crowd going wild.    

THE PICK: KC-2 ½

Friday September 6^th, 2024 8:15pm (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles               GB+2 ½  

So in the off season GB QB Jordan Love signed a massive contract. Now he has to live up to it. PHILLY did a lot of restructuring on their team due to guys coming and going. One of the biggest additions is RB Saquon Barkley who should take some pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts to have to do everything by himself. But, a BIG departure was the retirement of future HOF C Jason Kelce. What people don’t understand is that you can’t just throw guys out there on an O-LINE and expect them to do well. They have to be a ble to mesh together. Also, Jalen Hurts has to play better and not always go for the home run ball. Check it down once in a while. GB is coming off a nice season that saw them almost and should have won @SF in the playoffs. If they are able to build from last season then, they should go deeper in the playoffs. L11 GB vs PHILLY, PHILLY 6-5 SU & 5-5-1 ATS. GB 28-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. GB 30-17 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. GB 9-1-1 ATS L11 as a non-div DOG. PHILLY 7-12-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. PHILLY 22-34 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PHILLY 32-43 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PHILLY 5-13 ATS before MNF. With GB RB AJ Dillon going down for the season with a neck injury, RB Josh Jacobs will have relatively no competition at the position. If he doesn’t get it done, it will be all on QB Jordan Love’s back. The secondary for PHILLY is loaded and the Bryce Huff addition at LB was solid after trading LB Hassan Reddick to NYJ. I like this game a lot but I think it will be close. I like GB with the points and PHILLY in a squeaker.  

THE PICK: GB +2 ½

Sunday September 8^th, 2024 1:00pm

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons                      PITT+3

It is a very good thing that ATL picked up LB/DE Matthew Judon before the season. He will really help an ATL DEF that sometimes disappeared last season. BIG Contract? He had some great years with NE but he was injured for most of 2023. He is looking for a BIG contract, so ATL will get his best. The ATL OFF looks good and we’ll see whether QB Kirk Cousins is 100% or if QB Michael Penix sees more than clipboard. The DEF has improved since last season when times they disappeared even against bad teams. PITT is an enigma. Whether it is QB Justin Fields or QB Russell Wilson, I don’t know if this team will make any type of statement. Wilson’s whole persona on the field has gone way down since SEA and Fields is looking to reinvent himself. L5 PITT vs ATL, PITT 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS incl PITT @ATL, PITT 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. PITT 12-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PITT 23-36-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PITT 15-25-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ATL 31-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 22-25 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. ATL 8-2 ATS L10 as a non-conf FAV. I like ATL to come out strong here. Cousins needs to show everyone he is 100% and that he can use all the weapons around him. The ATL DEF needs to show that they have improved and make some plays this week to show it. For PITT, there is nothing right now that scares me into thinking that they should be revered. Wilson is not the same QB he was just a few years ago. Lay the points here as ATL gets a nice win to start the season.

THE PICK: ATL-3

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills                            ARZ+5 ½

I think that BUFF QB Josh Allen is overrated because he does turn the ball over a lot and at times makes some bad decisions with his arm. He really needs to step up this season without two of his favorite targets now on other teams. WRs Stefon Diggs & Gabriel Davis combined for 152 receptions & 15tds. That’s not easy to replace. But somehow, there are always guys that step up on this team. Let’s see who does it in 2024 as the window is starting to close for this team to get to a SuperBowl. Arizona is still in a sort of rebuilding stage and trying to find players that mesh. But there are games when everything is rolling and they come out with a nice win. This is QB Kyler Murray’s team and they need to do better than last years 4-13. ARZ doesn’t have BIG names at the WR position but they need to step up if this team goes anywhere. L5 BUFF vs ARZ, BUFF 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. ARZ 45-35-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ARZ 36-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. ARZ 12-10 ATS before LAR. BUFF 12-7-1 ATS 1NL before MIA. BUFF 36-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 39-25-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. This game should be a win for BUFF and if they can’t beat ARZ by a least a td, then they have no business thinking that they can contend for the AFC EAST title. BUFF should win BIG here. Lay the points. 

THE PICK: BUFF-5 ½ 

Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears                           TENN+4 ½

CHI has added a lot of pieces to this team to make sure that QB Caleb Williams can be successful. He certainly has better players around him than did QB Justin Fields. Williams can’t get overwhelmed about the situation and what is expected from him. Just go out, read the opposing Defenses and make the right decisions. TENN has put it on the shoulders of QB Will Levis. The fact that he has had a full training camp to work things out should make TENN a better team going forward. They have also tried to add more weapons on OFF after the departure of RB Derrick Henry. L5 TENN vs CHI, TENN 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS incl TENN @ CHI, TENN 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. TENN 32-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 39-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CHI 20-28-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CHI 30-33-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. There is BIG expectations here to see how QB Caleb Williams does out of the gate. TENN is not a great team and they have a new HC but CHI should find a way to win nicely. Take CHI and lay the points.

THE PICK: CHI-4 ½

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals           NE+9 ½ 

CINNCY is a team that has been consistently slow out of the gate. This team rides on the health of QB Joe Burrow who is coming back from his wrist injury. CINNCY has weapons on OFF, no doubt but sometimes the DEF can go to sleep. This team has been known to lose games that they should win. For NE it is a whole new ball game. No more Bill Belichick. Plus a new QB in Drake Maye who was selected with the 3^rd pick in the 1^st round. LB Matt Judon is not there in the middle but the DEF was tough last season.

L9 CINNCY vs NE, NE 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS incl, NE @CINNCY, NE 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. NE 29-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 18-21 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NE 12-4-1 ATS L18 vs AFC NORTH. CINNCY 20-31 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CINNCY 17-29 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. I think that CINNCY will win this game but for some reason NE will stick around. I like the BIG SPREAD here & NE will not go down without a fight. It will be an interesting game. There is a strong possibility that Jacoby Brissett may start for NE if certain injuries persist on the NE O-LINE so, he will be the starter. Also, Brissett is facing his own injuries with an injured shoulder suffered in the preseason game vs WASH. But NE HC Jerrod Mayo has stated that Briseet would have continued if it was a regular season game.

THE PICK: NE+9 ½

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts                      INDY+2

HOU QB CJ Stroud had a very nice rookie season. He led the team to the playoff where they beat CLEV but lost @BALT. Stroud has an extra weapon on OFF that should keep opposing secondaries guessing, WR Stefon Diggs came over and to HOU with something to prove. Plus, the DEF has another year under its belt with experience and should be able to close games out. INDY QB Anthony Richardson is coming back from a major shoulder injury. Whether he can stay healthy and play well remains to be seen. QB Joe Flacco was signed as the backup just in case. L17 HOU @INDY, INDY 12-5 SU & 9-7-1 ATS. L28 HOU vs INDY, HOME 12-14-2 ATS. L30 HOU vs INDY, FAV 14-12-2 ATS 1PICK’EM. L25 HOU vs INDY, INDY 16-7-2 ATS. L11 HOU vs INDY, INDY 7-3-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS. HOU 5-7-1 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 13-11 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 19-19 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU 12-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. HOU 7-4-1 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. INDY 9-11 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. INDY 25-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. INDY 27-31 ATS @HOME in SEPT. INDY 20-27 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. These two teams always play tough against each other but coming out of the gate, HOU could have eyes on the AFC SOUTH which would give them at least a HOME game in the playoffs. INDY has to see whether or not their QB can stay healthy and be able to lead the team to victories. INDY is starting from scratch again. But in this game, I like HOU to win BIG.

THE PICK: HOU-2

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins                 JAGS+3  

JAGS self destructed last season after starting 8-3 and did not make the playoffs. That can’t happen again. Team has too much talent for laydowns. MIA has a lot of talent but somehow that talent doesn’t make for deep runs in the playoffs. A letdown in the first round vs KC. Both of these teams need to do better. L7 JAGS vs MIA, JAGS 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS incl JAGS @MIA, JAGS 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS. JAGS 32-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. JAGS 23-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. JAGS 3-16 ATS as a non-div conf DOG >3pts. MIA 10-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. MIA 13-10 ATS before BUFF. MIA 26-28-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 28-24 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. I see MIA winning this game by a td. MIA is very good in the beginning of the season and who knows what JAGS will be bringing. The MIA DEF has to play well here. JAGS will put up points but so will MIA. Take MIA here.  

THE PICK: MIA-3

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints               CAR+4

After the season that CAR had, you know they need to play better or another house cleaning will be coming. Owner David Tepper has absolutely no patience and CAR hasn’t had a winning season since 2017. CAR needs to get some kind of running game going so that there is less pressure on QB Bryce Young to succeed. Plus, the O-LINE needs to do its job. Young was sacked a staggering 62x in 2023. For NO, it’s RB by committee with RB Alvin Kamara leading the charge. QB Derek Carr and his happy feet are up for grabs. Put some pressure on him and he will implode. The DEF for NO is a year older with a secondary that is younger except for S Tyrann Mathieu who is without a doubt the leader. L17 CAR @NO, CAR 7-10 SU but 10-7 ATS. L22 CAR vs NO, NO 11-10-1 ATS. CAR 14-20-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. CAR 25-24-2 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 21-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CAR 7-11-2 ATS L20 openers. CAR 13-10 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 12-10 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. NO 27-27-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NO 25-34-2 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NO 20-20-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in SEPT. This game could go either way on the basis of turnovers but I feel that NO will eek out a win smaller than the spread. It may even come down to a fg at the end. CAR cannot afford to be blown out in the first game. They need to show something of an improvement over last season. I like NO to win but not cover the spread.

THE PICK: CAR+4

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants                   NYG+1

MINN Rookie QB JJ McCarthy tore his meniscus in the 1^st preseason game and is out for the season. Well traveled and ghost watcher, Sam Darnold moves into the starting QB for MINN. A lot of changes in the off season for MINN and this is certainly a downgrade by injury. NYG made a lot of upgrades in the off season on both sides of the ball but, QB Daniel Jones has not changed. The O-LINE also has doubts and that will continue to plague them. L11 MINN vs NYG, MINN 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS incl MINN @ NYG, MINN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. MINN 26-28-3 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MINN 23-8-1 last 32 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 28-36-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. MINN 10-9 ATS L19 vs NFC EAST. MINN 8-11 SU & 12-7 ATS AWAY vs non-div outdoors. NYG 21-41 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYG 20-23-1 ATS last 44 as a HOME DOG. NYG 32-31-1 ATS as a DOG  in SEPT. NYG 9-7 ATS before WASH. NYG 2-10 SU & 1-11 ATS L12 HOME openers. All Darnold needs to do for MINN is not turn the ball over and let his RBs get some yardage so that all the pressure is not on him. He can be average and MINN could still win games. For NYG, it’s all about Jones making the right choices but, if history is any clue, he will continue to make the same mistakes turning the ball over and getting sacked. What does he care? He is getting $40 million guaranteed this season. I like MINN here as NYG sees a continuation of last season unless Darnold turns the ball over and gives NYG easy chances.

THE PICK: MINN-1

Sunday September 8^th, 2024 4:00pm

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers             LV+3 ½

New LAC HC Jim Harbaugh has a lot to prove again being back in the NFL. LAC has a lot of good players but made a lot of moves in the off season. We’ll see if they pay off. LAC QB Justin Herbert should have an awesome season under Harbaugh but, stranger things have happened. For LV, HC Antonio Pierce has made the decision that Gardner Minshew will be the starter. Pierce had a full training camp with this team after he took over midseason. Raider brass will be watching closely to see if they made the right choice. L17 LV @ LAC, LAC 11-6 SU but 8-8-1 ATS . L32 LV vs LAC, ROAD 15-15-1 ATS. L29 LV vs LAC, DOG 19-8-1 ATS 1NL. LV 12-14 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LV 33-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LV 14-25 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. LV 37-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAC 28-32-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LAC 28-34 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAC 20-18 ATS vs AFC WEST in SEPT. Inter division games in the AFC are always tough but the LAC DEF made some upgrades and everyone right now is healthy. At this writing, LAC LB Joey Bosa is questionable but I’m sure he is ready to go. This should be a good game but I like LAC winning by a td.

THE PICK: LAC-3 ½

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks                          DEN+5

SEA will not have HC Pete Carroll on the sidelines for the 1^st time in a long time. Mike MacDonald is the new HC. Whether or not SEA QB Geno Smith is 100% is what worries me. DEN HC Sean Payton needs to get out to a fast start or at least a competitive start after the roller coaster ride of the 2023 season. Bo Nix is the new QB for DEN and we’ll see if he is worth all the hype. L5 DEN vs SEA, SEA 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. SEA(H) vs DEN, SEA 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. DEN 20-16 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 31-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DEN 9-12 ATS L21 as a non-conference DOG 2>pts. SEA 37-26-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 34-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SEA’s DEF had been known to disappear at times last season. I think this game will be close as DEN has to play better than last season.

THE PICK: DEN+5

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns                         DAL+2 ½

DAL finally shored WR Ceedee Lamb. He got his money and he gives a boost to the Offense. However, CB DaRon Bland will be out for a number of weeks with an injury. He had 9INTS in 2023 in which five were returned for tds. DAL QB Dak Prescott is on a show-me season looking for an even bigger payday than he is getting now. There are high expectations for this team and HC Mike McCarthy knows he needs to go deeper in the playoffs than just the first round. CLEV starts off with a banged up O-LINE and a big question mark for their QB, Dashaun Watson. Watson is coming off that shoulder injury and week 1 will show if it is totally healed and he is 100%. CLEV will have a RB back by committee because RB Nick Chubb is still out. L5 DAL vs CLEV, DAL 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS incl DAL @CLEV, DAL 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. DAL 37-22-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DAL 30-15 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CLEV 9-13 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEV 22-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CLEV 18-23-2 ATS L43 vs NFC. CLEV 3-9 ATS L12 vs NFC EAST. DAL has a lot of pressure on them to start off strong and finish strong. CLEV just has to stay healthy. The secondary for DAL will have their hands full here and Watson’s shoulder will be given the test. This Line changed from DAL laying 1pt to getting 2 ½ . Is something going on? However, I like DAL here getting points because I think they will win outright.

THE PICK: DAL+2 ½

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers          WASH+3 ½

WASH HC Dan Quinn would love to get off to a great start. What better way to do it then against a QB that is prone to mistakes? When TB QB Baker Mayfield gets pressured he turns the ball over. Quinn is a defensive guru and will look to capitalize on getting to Mayfield. Quinn wants to see if WASH QB Jayden Daniels can become something in the NFL. This is his chance because TB is not consistent. L11 WAS vs TB, WASH 6-5 SU & 4-5-2 ATS incl WASH @ TB, WASH 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. WASH 36-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 28-32 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 17-11-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 6-1 ATS L7 AWAY vs NFC SOUTH. TB 24-30-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TB 24-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. Look for WASH to try to develop the run game so that not all the pressure is on Daniels from the get go. Let’s see if the WASH DEF can do their job. For TB it’s all about not digging a big hole and then having to win every game towards the end of the season to get into the playoffs. We’ll see who on the TB DEF welcomes Daniels to the NFL. This game should come down to a fg but I like the extra ½ pt.  

THE PICK: WASH +3 ½

Sunday September 8^th, 2024 8:20pm

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions                             LAR+3 ½

Last season DET should have won the NFC Championship game, period. There were a few suspect calls made by DET HC Dan Campbell. But I can tell you, it won’t happen again. LAR were looking like they were going nowhere in 2023 and they turned it around with 6 wins in their last 7 games to make the playoffs. But they lost at DET 24-23 in the wildcard. Does LAR QB Matt Stafford have something to prove? Does DET QB Jared Goff still have a chip on his shoulder? L8 LAR vs DET, LAR 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS incl LAR @DET, LAR 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS. LAR 12-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAR 11-11-1 ATS before ARZ. LAR 21-34-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAR 28-32-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAR 8-9 ATS AWAY on SNF. LAR 6-5 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAR 2-6 ATS L8 as a ROAD DOG vs NFC NORTH. DET 4-5 ATS @HOME on SNF. DET 8-11 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. DET 37-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 39-39 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 8-2 ATS vs non-div opp w/revenge. There may be some revenge on the minds of LAR for their loss last season in the wild card game here in DET. Stafford has a lot of weapons on OFF and we’ll see who he favors. This should be a good game but I don’t see any blowout here by either team. I like a close game coming out of the gate. Take LAR and the points.  

THE PICK: LAR+3 ½

Monday September 9^th, 2024 8:20pm

New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers                        NYJ+5  

This is a BIG game for NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers. He has to show everyone that he is up to the task of putting the NYJ team on his shoulders and deep into the playoffs. He also has to show that his Achilles, that he ruptured four plays into the 2023 season, is 100%. Also, folks will look to see if he has aged more. His 2022 stats were the worst of his career and Rodgers has turned 40 years old. For SF, the team has to set the tone in the NFC because they barely beat DET in the NFC championship game last season. SF is loaded on OFF and has playmakers on DEF. L5 SF vs NYJ, SF 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS. NYJ 13-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. NYJ 5-15-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 28-28 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYJ 28-42 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. SF 20-10 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. SF 29-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SF 37-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. If SF read up on the OT rules they may have won the SuperBowl instead of losing like they did. SuperBowl losers are 10-15 SU & 6-19 ATS week 1 of the following season. Both of these teams are looking to get off to good start. There is a lot riding with NYJ and their team and the coaching staff has a lot of pressure on it to get deep into the playoffs. The reason why NYJ was 7-10 in 2023 was not because of the Offense. It was a Defense that was swarming and actually won games when the Offense was nil. For SF, their goal is to get back to the SuperBowl and win. It seems that SF HC Kyle Shanahan has a problem in BIG games and can’t get it done. But for SF, they are already guys banged up and guys sitting out. SF QB Brock Purdy who will be getting a new contract, doesn’t have his full squad to work with. Even then, I think it will be a good game and I like SF to win the game by a fg at most. Maybe NYJ will surprise people. I like NYJ with the points.

THE PICK: NYJ+5