2024 NFL SCHEDULE DIVISIONAL ROUND

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 18^th, 2025 4:30pm

(4) Houston Texans @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs                      HOU+8

LW, HOU @HOME beat a Paper Tiger, LAC. LAC QB Justin Herbert threw 4INTS in the game that basically sealed it for HOU. HOU didn’t play that great of a game but when you are handed 4extra opportunities, it’s hard to lose. The DEF for LAC looked like they already went home. They made no stops and gave up 168yds rushing. HOU WR Nico Collins caught 7passes for 122yds & 1td. HOU QB CJ Stroud wasn’t great but did what he had to do vs a DEF that made no stops. For Herbert, he will the “but” attached to his name until he starts winning in the postseason.    

KC has been resting since week 17. Some say that KC is not as strong as they were in 2023. But they said the same thing in 2023 about the previous season as they are saying now. As long as Superman wears a red jersey with the #15 on the back, teams will have to beat KC to be considered great. HOU is not there yet. They beat up on CLEV in the 1^st round last season, then was walloped by BALT in the divisional round. This season, HOU fell back into the playoffs because they were playing in a very week AFC SOUTH division and no other team found a way to stay above .500.

KC played HOU just a few weeks ago in week 16 with KC winning 27-19. In that game, Stroud threw 2INTs while KC QB Pat Mahomes threw 0INTs. KC held HOU to 84yds rushing while KC rushed for a combined 124yds rushing. In this game, HOU never lead but only trailed 17-16 in the 3^rd qtr before KC scored a td to make the score KC 24-16. Each team exchanged fgs in the 4^th qtr. But for the most part, KC kept HOU at bay and made plays when they needed them. For KC, the only injured layer that they have that is questionable is CB Trent McDuffie. The rest of the team is ready to go. KC’s DEF is a little weaker this season than last, KC #8 TOT DEF in 2024 & #4 TOT DEF in 2023. But the PASS DEF is significantly down from 2023. KC #4 PASS DEF in 2023 & #18 PASS DEF in 2024. As for HOU, they have a better ranked PASS DEF than KC this season, HOU #6 PASS DEF. The KC O-LINE has to contain HOU DE Will Anderson & DE Danielle Hunter who together this season to combine for 23 sacks. But, KC has so many weapons for Mahomes to throw to that HOU can’t cover them all. Plus, KC TE Travis Kelce catches everything. He may have lost a step but he has hands and is Mahomes’s safety net. KC is on a quest to win three SuperBowls in a row. A few teams have come close but no one has done it. Not only do I not see KC losing this game but I see KC winning by at least 10points as Stroud does not have a good game vs KC. I also don’t see HOU RB Joe Mixon getting substantial yardage in this game. A couple of turnovers by HOU will help KC tremendously. There is pressure on KC but Mahomes & CO have been here before. Lay the points here as Mahomes & CO teach Stroud a thing or to.

THE PICK: KC-8  

Saturday January 18^th, 2025 8:00pm

(6) Washington Commanders @ (1) Detroit Lions                     WASH+9 ½

LW, WASH was the benefactor of a big fumble by TB at TB’s own 13yd line. Who recovered the fumble for WASH? LB Bobby Wagner who was part of the Legion of Boom in SEA and who brings valued veteran leadership to a young WASH DEF. This was the turning point of the game. Just before this, TB stopped WASH cold on downs and TB had the lead 17-13. But with this fumble and a 2^nd chance, WASH capitalized with a td and the game was essentially over. TB would kick a fg to tie the game at 20-20 but WASH would get the ball last and drive all the way down for a fg with :02 left to win 23-20. WASH had done this all season and it was probably almost expected to happen here.

DET had a nice blowout win @HOME vs MINN, 31-9 in week 18 to decide the NFC NORTH & the #1 seed. DET stopped MINN 4x in the redzone and limited their run game as well. DET HC Dan Campbell turned his team up a notch and MINN had no answers in this game. The usually good MINN RUSH DEF gave up 139yds & 3tds on 23 carries to DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The MINN DEF looked like they already packed and went home.  

WASH finally beat a team that was a playoff contender. In the playoffs, every little missed play, missed catch or turnover weighs heavily. The fumble by TB QB Baker Mayfield was the turning point of the game. DET doesn’t make too many mistakes and with LB Alex Anzalone coming back right in time for the playoffs, it gives DET that extra edge, even with all the other injuries they have had on DEF. WASH has had a nice season but this is where it ends. DET #2 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #2 PASS OFF vs WASH #10 TOT DEF w/#27 RUSH DEF & #3 PASS DEF. DET is another team that ca beat you many ways. RB Jaymyr Gibbs is a fantastic runner who gets needed yards and put opposing DEFs on edge because he can pass catch as well. The DET OFF is so wide spread and HC Dan Campbell is always looking for that trick play that catches the DEF napping.

WASH has had a nice season and they have something to build on but DET is on a mission after blowing the NFC Championship game last season @SF. QB Jayden Daniels has given WASH hope and a future but right now it is DET’s time. DET has worked too hard to lose a chance to get to the SuperBowl. DET can beat yu on OFF & DEF and that is what they will do vs WASH. I don’t think this game will be close because WASH has shown that they can’t beat a very good team like DET. Lay the points here as DET should win by at least 10points.

THE PICK: DET-9 ½  

Sunday January 19^th, 2025 3:00pm

(4) Los Angeles Rams @ (2) Philadelphia Eagles                    LAR+6

LW, LA which has been hit with devastating wildfires, had their wild card round playoff vs MINN moved to Glendale, AZ. Well, MINN didn’t really show up there either and the LAR DEF sacked MINN QB Sam Darnold 9x, returned a sack fumble for a td and intercepted him 1x for a 27-9 shellacking. LAR was up 24-3 at the half and you could have turned your sets off there. LAR QB Matthew Stafford picked the MINN DEF apart as he spread the ball around to 8different receivers while throwing 19/27 for 209yds, 2tds & 0INTs. On 2straight possessions for MINN, they had an INT and then a fumble return for a td which put the score at LAR 17-3. I had thought that MINN would bounceback after getting beaten badly by DET the week before. There was motivation there for MINN to bounceback and also because LAR had beaten MINN earlier this season. But it wasn’t meant to be as the LAR DEF was playing a very tight game and giving up no real points while putting a lot of pressure on MINN QB Sam Darnold who for some reason reverted back to his old playing days with the NYJ. 

LW, PHILLY was HOME to GB in their game in the wild card round. GB fumbled on their opening possession and PHILLY turned it into an easy score. PHILLY didn’t do much the rest of the half and only added a fg which made the score PHILLY 10-0 at the half. GB was still in striking distance but 3INTS by GB QB Jordan Love didn’t help the cause for GB while giving PHILLY the advantage. PHILLY scored 0pts off the 3INTS but GB couldn’t seem to get out of their own way and ended up losing 22-10. The OFF for PHILLY looked like it had struggles even though PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts threw for 2tds & 0INTs. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 119yds on 25 carries and could have rushed for a td in the closing minutes but decided to slide down and keep possession of the ball for PHILLY to run out the clock.

These two teams met in week 12 @LAR on SNF with PHILLY winning 37-20. In that game, PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 255yds & 2tds on 26carries. LAR WRs Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp combined for 177yds on 17catches & 1td. Neither team had an INT but it seems that the PHILLY DEF did a better job at stopping the LAR OFF in this game then the LAR DEF of stopping the PHILLY OFF. LAR QB Matthew Stafford was sacked 5x while PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts was only sacked 1x. 

The win by PHILLY last week wasn’t that impressive. That kind of game is not what got PHILLY #2 seed in the NFC. PHILLY got here by scoring points almost every time it got a golden opportunity to score. PHILLY #10 TOT OFF w/#2 RUSH OFF & #30 PASS OFF. PHILLY was #9 TOT OFF w/#17 PASS OFF & #9 RUSH in 2023 w/o RB Barkley. LW, PHILLY had problems moving the ball on OFF. They can’t solely rely on Barkley to get them yards and scores. GB QB Jordan Love has not established himself as a playoff QB and needs to get over that hump in his resume. LAR QB Matthew Stafford has been successful in the playoffs and has led LAR to a SuperBowl win. LAR should be pumped up to have a rematch with a team that beat them badly during the regular season. For LAR to win this game they have to play a perfect game. They can’t have turnovers and they have to score when they are in the redzone. Also, the LAR DEF has to create turnovers which will give Stafford & CO extra opportunities to score. For PHILLY they need to get out of that funk that has them struggling on OFF but the LAR DEF is no slouch. PHILLY DEF can be sneaky and make BIG plays when teams are not expecting. I think this will be a tighter game then expected and I don’t see  ablowout by either team as these two teams played each other during the season. I like PHILLY winning the game but by less than 6pts. It should be a good game and as I said LAR cannot turn the ball over. This game is decided by a fg and PHILLY comes out the winner.     

THE PICK: LAR+6

Sunday January 19^th, 2025 6:30pm

(3) Baltimore Ravens @ (2) Buffalo Bills                              BUFF+1

LW, it was the RB Derrick Henry & QB Lamar Jackson show for BALT over PITT. BALT stormed out to a 21-0 halftime lead and the game was over. Jackson & Henry combined for 267yds rushing & 2tds. Henry had 186yds rushing on 26carries & 2tds and overall BALT had 299yds rushing. PITT had no answer and could only muster 29yds rushing on their end. BALT coasted to a 28-14 win. PITT did not turn the ball over but could not stop the BALT express. PITT has a lot of questions to answer in the off season after losing 5 in a row to end the season. The 1^st question should be about the QB. But BALT plays on with their own chip on their shoulder.    

LW, BUFF spotted DEN a 7-0 lead and then scored 31straight points to win 31-17. It was a total domination by BUFF on OFF & DEF and DEN had no answers. BUFF RB James Cook rushed for 120yds &1td on 23carries as BUFF combined for 210yds on the ground. DEN had a chance to tie the game down10-7 but missed a fg to end the 1^st half. After that BUFF scored on 4straight possessions and DEN couldn’t recover. DEN has a lot to build on as they have a QB that is comfortable and can get the job done. But the DEF faltered down the stretch this season and needs to have a few guys added. Plus, a reliable RB wouldn’t hurt either.

These two teams met in week 4 on SNF @BALT with BALT blowing out BUFF, 35-10. In that game, BALT RB Derrick Henry rushed for 199yds &1td on 24carries. BALT combined for 271yds &2tds on 34carries. BUFF only sacked BALT QB Lamar Jackson 1x while BALT sacked BUFF QB Josh Allen 3x. Each QB had a lost fumble but BALT took control of this game early with a 21-3 halftime lead. The BALT DEF forced BUFF to punt 6x. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs BUFF #12 RUSH DEF. Will BUFF be able to stop the BALT Express? I really don’t think so. This is what BALT brought Henry in for, the playoffs.

Is there a little revenge on the minds of BUFF? You bet there is. But, by the time this game is played, BALT & BUFF will know that they have to play their best game here just to face KC, @KC next week. That in itself is no easy task. BALT has their own demons to conquer as they were the #1seed in 2023 only to lose @HOME in the AFC Championship game vs KC.  BALT WR Zay Flowers is questionable for this game. He was the one who had that BIG fumble in the Champ game vs KC in 2023. I’m sure if he can play, he wants to redeem himself. Turnovers will be huge in this game and may decide who wins. This game will no doubt be a battle but I see BALT coming out ahead. It will be a game that goes down to the wire as I don’t see a blowout by either team. IT should be a good game with a lot of great plays, but BALT will win. It is basically a PICK’EM game but lay the point here.  

THE PICK: BALT-1