2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 14 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYES: Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens & Houston Texans

Thursday December 5^th, 2024 8:15pm

Green Bay Packers (9-3), (6-6) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Detroit Lions (11-1), (9-2-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS                               GB+3 ½  

LW, there was never any doubt that GB -3 ½ @HOME vs MIA was not winning this game. But I felt that MIA was desperate to win and get to .500 but GB had other ideas. GB was in total control of this game and had a 27-3 lead in the 3^rd qtr. MIA could not adapt to the cold weather and could not get their run game going which amounted to 39yds. Meanwhile GB QB Jordan Love picked the MIA DEF apart for 21/28 passing, 274yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. Also GB rushed for 114yds & 1td on 25carries by a committee that kept MIA guessing. MIA tried in desperation to make this a game late but came up way short and GB won 30-17. LW, I liked DET-10 ½ @HOME vs CHI on Thanksgiving. After beating INDY on the ROAD who thought CHI would give DET problems? DET RBs Gibbs & Montgomery rushed for 175yds on 30carries and it looked like DET was coasting. However, DET was very lucky they were playing against a HC that doesn’t know the meaning of time management. DET was up 23-7 in the 4^th qtr when two things happened, CHI woke up and the DET DEF went to sleep. CHI scored 2tds to make the score, DET 23-20. To make a long story short, CHI was driving but CHI HC Matt Eberflus didn’t know time management or play calling and DET escaped with a 23-20 win. Because of his indecisions and incompetence, Eberflus was fired the next day. L17 GB @DET, GB 10-7 SU & 8-9 ATS. L35 GB vs DET, GB 22-13 SU & 15-19-1 ATS. L26 DET vs GB, HOME 13-12-1 ATS. L25 GB vs DET, FAV 13-11-1 ATS. GB 5-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. GB 10-11-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. GB 38-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 37-30-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. GB 17-8-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs .666>opp. GB 13-14-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 6-14-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. GB 3-13 ATS as a DOG w/revenge. GB 3-12 ATS as a conf DOG w/revenge. DET 11-6-2 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB HGs. DET 24-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 35-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 33-27-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 10-10-1 ATS after CHI. DET 13-1 ATS as a HOME FAV 4<pts off BB SU wins. DET 11-3 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts. DET 9-0 ATS as a div HOME FAV <8pts vs >.400opp. DET 7-141 ATS after div HOME gm. DET 0-4 ATS L4 @HOME vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. DET 9-0 ATS L9 vs >.666opp. There is some revenge on the minds of GB. In week 9, DET came into GB and beat GB 24-14. This game was not as close as the final score suggests because DET was up 24-3 and coasted as GB tried to stage a comeback that was unsuccessful. GB has been playing very well and has certainly looked very good vs their last two opponents, SF & MIA. But in the division it is a different story. GB has lost to MINN & DET for two of their three losses. The other loss was vs PHILLY. So GB’s 3losses are vs playoff teams. As for DET, last week, they escaped CHI’s attempted comeback because their former coach all of a sudden didn’t know how to coach and didn’t bother to look at the clock. The DET DEF sort of went to sleep at a time when they shouldn’t and it almost cost them the game. Anyway, both teams have prolific OFFs. DET #2 TOT OFF & GB #3 TOT OFF. Both teams have prolific DEFs. DET #10 TOT DEF & GB #12 TOT DEF. What separates them is the 1-2 RB punch for DET of Gibbs & Montgomery. Just when you think you have stopped one, the other excels. Also, the DET secondary is suspect and can be beat. DET #25 PASS DEF. This has been a problem all season. If GB QB Jordan Love can stay patient and the play action pass is working, he will be able to pick the DET secondary apart. I think this will be a good game going down to the wire and like GB with the points. I think DET squeaks out a win but GB gives it all they have. Turnovers will be BIG in this game and I like GB’s chances to possibly get the win here.   

THE PICK: GB+3 ½

Sunday December 8^th, 2024 1:00pm

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10), (6-5-1) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (3-9), (2-10) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (0-5) ATS                    JAGS+3 ½  

LW, I liked HOU-5 @JAGS. It was looking good @ HOU 23-6 in the 4^th qtr until JAGS QB Mac Jones led 2td drives to cut HOU’s lead to 23-20. HOU went to sleep and JAGS starting playing but that was where it stopped. The final was 23-20. JAGS were too little too late. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of this game by a concussion and ankle injuries and Jones was the one who led the td drives. LW, TENN went to sleep @WASH after getting a nice win @HOU the week before. I liked TENN+5 ½ after they looked good @HOU. But TENN regressed on OFF & DEF and WASH took advantage of them in a 42-19 WASH win. TENN was down 28-7 at the half as the TENN had no answer for WASH’s first 4possessions where they scored 4tds. WASH was up 28-0 before TENN scored a point. In the 2^nd half, TENN couldn’t stop WASH while only scoring 2fgs & 1td but not catching WASH. One positive for TENN is that they did not turn the ball over. However, the OFF didn’t get anywhere and the DEF couldn’t make any stops. L17 JAGS @TENN, JAGS 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS. L30 JAGS vs TENN, 15-15 ATS. L34 JAGS vs TENN, DOG 17-17 ATS. L18 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 6-12 SU & 6-12 ATS. JAGS 10-11 ATS after HOU. JAGS 29-22 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. JAGS 37-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 27-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 8-15 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. TENN 38-41 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 35-43 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 31-36-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. This is a game of who cares. Neither team’s fans have anything to root for except maybe a high draft pick and some hope. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is not playing this game. In fact, he has gone on IR and probably will be out the rest of the season. This gives QB Mac Jones & the rest of the team at least some kind of chance to show what they have. TENN looked horrible @WASH after beating HOU. Both of these teams will have serious evaluations after the season to at least try to get better. JAGS #32 TOT DEF w/#24 RUSH & #32 PASS DEF. TENN should have a field day with this because there is talent on the TENN OFF. TENN RB Tony Pollard is having a decent season considering the circumstances. He is due for a bounceback game after being very limited @WASH. TENN QB Will Levis is learning and not making so many mistakes as before but needs to continue the process. As for JAGS, they need to get rid of dead weight on DEF. If this game were @JAGS, I would probably take the JAGS but since it is @TENN, I like TENN. Lay the points here and hope for the best because when two bad teams play anything could and usually does happen. Also, there should be some turnovers in this game by each team that adds to the calamity of how each team is doing.  

THE PICK: TENN-3 ½

New York Jets (3-9), (3-9) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (5-7), (5-6-1 ) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS                                     NYJ+6

LW, NYJ were up 21-7 vs SEA and looking to extend their lead. Then NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers tried to get cute and threw a pass that SEA DT Leonard Williams tipped and caught and returned 92yds for a PICK6 td. That made the score NYJ 21-13 but everyone knew the game was over. NYJ would not score another point and SEA rallied after that with 2fgs & 1td to make the final score SEA 26-21. Rodgers stats may look decent but if you saw the game, you know he’s done and can’t perform like even the Rodgers before he got hurt. This was a sloppy game for both teams but the NYJ mistakes wayed more heavily in the loss as NYJ had 12penalties for 83yds that extended SEA drives that led to points. With this loss for NYJ, NYJ have extended a streak of 9seasons with losing records. There will be some serous house cleaning after this season for NYJ. LW, I liked MIA +3 ½ @GB because it was a desperate game for MIA and I thought they would give it their all to play vs GB. If MIA won, they would be a .500 and could have it a little easy knowing their games ahead of them. But, MIA wilted under the cold weather and dug themselves a hole by trailing 24-3 at the half. MIA didn’t show GB that they were ready for this game and GB could have easily scored 40pts. This game was never close and GB won 30-17. MIA never got their run game going and the MIA DEF could not stop GB QB Jordan Love. L29 NYJ vs MIA, ROAD 18-11 ATS. L26 NYJ @ MIA, NYJ 17-9 ATS. L17 NYJ @MIA, NYJ 7-10 SU & 10-7 ATS. L34 NYJ vs MIA, DOG 19-14-1 ATS. NYJ 5-17-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 39-33-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 48-44 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 30-28 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 7-15-1 ATS vs opp w/rest. MIA 28-41 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 36-46 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 29-56 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 5-10-1 ATS vs .250< div opp. MIA 12-10-1 ATS w/rest. MIA is coming off a devastating loss of a game that they needed to win. MIA showed that they can’t get started in cold weather and if they should make the playoffs and have to travel to a cold weather game, they are done. NYJ have been done since they signed QB Aaron Rodgers. I never liked the signing and if anyone looked at his last season in GB, they would have seen a QB in decline. Father time is undefeated and he has beaten the best QBs in their last seasons in the NFL. NYJ is a bad franchise because it starts with their owner Woody Johnson. But that’s a whole nother story. Anyway, MIA in a BIG bounceback situation, still thinking they have a shot for the playoffs. NYJ still playing for jobs although, it is looking more likely that Rodgers will not be on the NYJ roster next season. MIA has a lot of talent and are very mad that they didn’t show up for a game they needed to win and show others that they can beat a good team. MIA #8 TOT w/#9 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. MIA has beaten JAGS, NE 2x, @LAR & LV. They have lost to BUFF 2x, @SEA, TENN, @INDY & ARZ. MIA didn’t have a QB for a number of games so some of those losses shouldn’t be weighted on. Luckily, MIA plays NYJ 2x down the stretch but they play @CLEV & @NYJ in wk 18. MIA better get their long johns out. But for this week, this game has blowout written all over it. MIA is pissed and NYJ are looking at another losing season. This game should be MIA 40-13. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa will have a field day on OFF while NYJ will only manage 1td & 2fgs. If Rodgers plays @QB he will look like he was run over by a tank. If Tyrod Taylor starts @QB, he will not make as many mistakes but NYJ will not be used to him and they will be out of sync. Anyway, lay the points here as MIA romps after the loss @GB.

THE PICK: MIA-6

Atlanta Falcons (6-6), (5-7) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (10-2), (8-3-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-2) ATS                                ATL+4 ½  

LW, ATL QB Kirk Cousins cost his team the game. He threw 4INTS including a PICK6 @HOME vs LAC. But even though Cousins had a terrible game, ATL was in this game until the end. LAC was only leading 17-13 when Cousins threw his 4^th INT. ATL RB Bijan Robinson ha a very good game but it was all for naught. The ATL DEF did their job and held LAC to 1td & 1fg plus only 56 total rushing yds on 17carries. I liked LAC because I thought heavily that the LAC DEF would pressure Cousins into mistakes. He made them all by himself. LW, MINN escaped a loss and made memorable comeback. I liked them as a HOME FAV-3 ½ vs ARZ but MINN dug themselves a BIG whole that almost looked too big to get out of. ARZ built a 19-6 lead by the 3^rd qtr but that was when MINN finally woke up. MINN outscored ARZ 17-3 the rest of the way while intercepting ARZ QB Kyler Murray 2x and stopping drives that could have put this game out of reach for MINN. MINN QB Sam Darnold started out shaky but led the team in the comeback. He threw for 2tds with 0turnovers while being sacked 5x. MINN won the game 23-22. L10 ATL vs MINN, ATL 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS. ATL 15-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ATL 40-38 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 35-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ATL 4-11-1 ATS L16 vs NFC NORTH. ATL 11-2 ATS off non-div gm vs .750>opp. ATL 5-1 ATS L6 before MNF. MINN 8-7 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. MINN 12-10 ATS before CHI. MINN 34-37-2 ATS @HOM Ein DEC. MINN 32-44-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 10-5-1 ATS as a HOME FAV >3pts off BB SU wins. MINN 4-10 ATS @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 6-0 ATS L6 before MNF. ATL is really stuck with QB Kirk Cousins. He is just an average QB with a hefty contract. Yeah he has had some great games but, so have a lot of other QBs. But where has he taken his teams, playoff wise? Not far. ATL rushed to sign this guy and are stuck with him and a team that may not even make the playoffs. He is the type of QB that if there is any pressure on him, he will fold. He folded a lot vs LAC. MINN is playing to keep up with GB. Both GB & MINN are playing for the wild card spot behind DET. MINN QB Sam Darnold is playing just well enough to keep the team winning. Although the MINN DEF went to sleep last week and MINN needed a gigantic comeback to beat ARZ. MINN RB Aaron Jones had some mistakes last week and will certainly look to correct them this week vs ATL. This is sort of a homecoming for Cousins since he played six seasons with MINN. Yet, during Cousins six season in MINN, MINN went to the playoffs 2x, losing 1x in the 1^st round to the NYG of all teams and then in the divisional round @SF. Like I said, he keeps the team competitive but never gets to the SuperBowl. MINN #1 RUSH DEF. Although they gave up a lot of yards to ARZ, look for MINN to tighten it up and put pressure on Cousins. MINN HC Kevin O’Connell knows Cousins and his shortcomings and should pounce on him when given the chance. Also, look for MINN RB Aaron Jones to bounceback and have a big game. ATL is just not that good and can’t really give QB Michael Penix a real shot because of Cousins contract. ATL Bijan Robinsdon had 102 yds rushing vs LAC last week. I don’t see him getting that this week. MINN QB Sam Darnold has to be very picky about his passes this week vs ATL because the ATL secondary is better than the secondary for ARZ. After a close call for MINN last week, I like MINN to win by at least a td here. Look for Cousins to try to win the crowd only to push to hard and throw a couple of INTs.     

THE PICK: MINN-4 ½

New Orleans Saints (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New York Giants (2-10), (2-10) ATS, (0-6) HOME, (0-6) ATS                           NYG+4

LW, NO barely lost @HOME to LAR. I liked LAR-2 ½ @NO because LAR was on a bounceback and NO isn’t really that good. They are a few players from really turning it around but they need the right HC and the right QB. Although RB Alvin Kamara is a one man wrecking crew, he can’t do it all alone. He rushed for 112yds on 23carries while catching 4passes. NO was up 6-0 at the half but LAR scored 3tds on 4possessions in the 2^nd half. The DEF for NO couldn’t make stops when they needed them and NO had a chance to tie the game at the end but NO QB Derek Carr didn’t see LAR OLB Jared Verse coming around the end and knocking the ball out of Carr’s hands on a 4^th & 2 with 1:13 to go and NO at the LAR 9yd line. LAR won 21-14. LW, did anyone really think that NYG were beating DAL in DAL on Thanksgiving? Even a really bad DAL team could beat a NYG team that is really bad. I liked DAL-2 ½ @HOME vs NYG. NYG actually had the lead 7-3 when they scored a td on their 1^st possession but, it was all downhill from there. NYG QB Drew Lock threw a PICK6 which gave DAL a 13-7 lead and with 2td in the 3^rd qtr, NYG were trailing 27-10 going into the 4^th qtr. NYG scored 1fg & 1td to make the final score DAL 27-20 but it was too little, too late. The NYG O-LINE continued to disappoint as NYG QB Drew Lock was sacked 6x. The NYG DEF did not sack DAL QB Cooper Rush 1x or create any turnovers that would have helped out the NYG OFF. L10 NO vs NYG, NO 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS. NO 18-16-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. NO 40-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 39-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 17-5 ATS AWAY after SUATS loss. NO 6-13 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV. NNYG 20-29-1 ATS L50 as a HOME DOG. NYG 8-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NYG 50-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 38-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 7-2 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. Believe it or not, NO has a shot at a playoff spot in the crazy NFC SOUTH. No team has been dominant and a team that finishes near .500 could qualify for the playoffs. Then anything could happen. Not really, but anything. NO needs a few players to be really good. A player here and a player there and they are dangerous. NYG are just terrible and can’t stop anyone. I keep saying this but the NYG O-LINE has to be addressed if NYG are going to be competitive. Neither of these teams has a great DEF. NO #30 TOT DEF & NYG #19 TOT DEF. But NO has a much better OFF than NYG. NO #12 TOT OFF vs NYG #25 TOT OFF. Right now, it looks like NYG QB Drew Lock will be starting vs NO. He is showing everyone that he is a backup at most. Unless he really starts lighting things up and getting NYG some wins, he will be the backup. I like NO in a bounceback as they believe they could somehow catch the NFC SOUTH crown. NO RB Taysom Hill tore his ACL in the game vs LAR and will be out for the rest of the season. This is a BIG blow to the NO OFF who rely on his ingenuity to get needed yards and scores when the opposing DEFs are not expecting it. He is a spark that the NO OFF will surely miss down the stretch. Anyhow, NO has had a tough season after coming out the gate like gangbusters. The NO schedule is not easy down the stretch and they need to focus on playing better. After NYG, NO plays vs WASH & @GB, not easy games. For NYG, their schedule is brutal. They play BALT, @ATL, INDY & @PHILLY. All are playing for playoffs. Although, the last game, PHILLY may play subs if they are locked into a playoff spot. However, I like NO to win by a td here because NYG are not playing well. But NO cannot let NYG RB Tyrone Tracy get started. He is looking to be the #1RB for the NYG going forward and is looking to have good games vs the competition down the stretch.    

THE PICK: NO-4

Carolina Panthers (3-9), (5-7) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-2), (8-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS                          CAR+12 ½  

LW, I liked CAR+5 ½ @HOME vs TB. CAR had a chance to win this game but bad teams always find a way to lose. This time it was RB Chubba Hubbard’s turn. He is actually one of the few bright spots on this team. In OT as CAR was driving, he fumbled the ball and TB recovered. TB then drove down the field and kicked a fg to win 26-23. CAR QB Bryce Young is playing much better given that CAR has nothing to play for. But he is making his case that with the right coaching he can turn CAR around. But the team needs a lot of help on DEF and a couple of more players on OFF. If Hubbard was on a good team, he would have about 1,200 rushing yards about now. But he is doing a great job on a lousy team taking some pressure off of Young. LW, I liked PHILLY+3 @BALT. PHILLY took care of business and BALT helped beat themselves by missing fgs and some stupid plays. PHILLY showed BALT who’s boss. BALT jumped out to a 9-0 lead and then the PHILLY DEF clamped down on BALT QB Lamar Jackson & RB Derrick Henry and that was it. PHILLY scored 2tds in the 2^nd qtr and led 14-12 at the half. PHILLY then scored another td and kicked a fg while BALT added a dummy td with :03 left to make the final score seem a little closer @ PHILLY 24-19. Oh, & PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley again rushed for over 100yds while the PHILLY DEF limited BALT RB Henry to 82yds. L9 CAR vs PHILLY, CAR 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS. CAR 11-7 ATS after CAR. CAR 2-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. CAR 33-27 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 43-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 11-15 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 13-11-1 ATS off div gm vs >.500opp. CAR 4-18 ATS off BB SU losses vs .666>opp. CAR 2-11 ATS L13 AWAY off BB SU losses. CAR 2-8 ATS L10 vs NFC EAST. PHILLY 8-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. PHILLY 37-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 42-41 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 10-2-1 ATS @HOME after SU DOG win. PHILLY 4-12 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs non-div opps. CAR played tough @HOME vs KC like I knew they would. They also played tough @HOME vs TB like I knew they would but, this game is @PHILLY & PHILLY is just on another level compared to those two teams. PHILLY just doesn’t want to beat you, they want to annihilate you and give you no hope. They want you to walk away saying, you just got beat by a very good team and you don’t even come close. Before these last two games, CAR had a bye and before that beat NO & NYG, so what. Those two teams combined couldn’t beat PHILLY. PHILLY #4 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF & #28 PASS OFF vs CAR #31 TOT DEF w/#32 RUSH DEF & #24 PASS DEF. The one stat that totally sticks out is PHILLY #1 RUSH OFF vs CAR #32 RUSH DEF. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley should run for over 150yds in this game and a couple of tds. He is having a monster season because he is behind a much better O-LINE in PHILLY. Hear that NYG? This takes so much pressure off of QB Jalen Hurts that opposing DEFs don’t know where to cover. Of course Barkley will get the ball, but when PHILLY uses their play action pass it brings the secondary in and Hurts can drop passes to more open receivers. CAR is a feisty bunch but this is where the hope ends for them. I can see this game being a 44-14 contest in favor of PHILLY as CAR will go back and say that they are not even in the same league as PHILLY. PHILLY will just chalk it up to another win because they are chasing DET. PHILLY beats teams with simple football. They run, pass and everyone tackles on DEF, nothing fancy. Lay the points here as the PHILLY OFF goes bonkers and shows that they too can score a lot in a blowout.   

THE PICK: PHILLY-12 ½

Cleveland Browns (3-9), (4-8) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3), (9-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS                            CLEV+6 ½  

ON MNF CLEV was @DEN for a wild one. I liked DEN-5 ½ but this game went back & forth for most of the game. CLEV QB Jameis Winston was throwing the ball all over the place with reverence except for the 2PICK6 throws he had that essentially blew the game for CLEV and any type of cover. DEN had a 21-10 lead in the 2^nd qtr but could not hold it and each team was scoring until it was 32-31 CLEV in the 4^th qtr. DEN added a fg to make it DEN 34-32 but on the ensuing drive Winston threw his 2^nd PICK6 which ended the game and the scoring @ DEN 41-32. Neither DEFs could stop the other OFFs and Winston ended the game with 34/58 passing 497yds, 4tds & 3INTs. PITT is coming off a wild game of their own in a 44-38 win @CINNCY.  I liked PITT+3 but this game was actually tied 21 all in the 2^nd qtr before PITT added 2fgs to make it 27-21 at the half. In the 2^nd half, with the score PITT 34-24, PITT returned a Joe Burrow fumble for a td which made the score PITT 41-24. CINNCY tried to comeback but to no avail and the end result was PITT 44-38 but, it was close at the end. The PITT DEF did intercept CINNCY QB Joe Burrow 1x, forced him into 2fumbes and sacked him 4x but he was able to throw for 309yds & 3tds. PITT LB TJ Watt got 2sacks in the game. L17 CLEV @PITT, CLEV 0-17 SU & 5-11-1 ATS. L35 CLEV vs PITT, CLEV 8-26-1 SU & 15-19-1 ATS . L35 PPITT vs CLEV, DOG 19-15-1 ATS. CLEV 8-22-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CLEV 13-26-3 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CLEV 28-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-42 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 1-13-1 ATS AWAY vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 1-16-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge. CLEV 9-1 ATS off SU loss vs .500>opp. PITT 7-9-1 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 46-32-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 50-41-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 31-27-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 11-3 ATS after allowing 35>pts. PITT 23-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 12-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts. PITT 8-0 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. PITT 7-2 ATS as a FAV 5>pts after allowing 28>pts. PITT 14-6 ATS as a FAV after allowing 28>pts. PITT 17-1 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. PITT 11-22 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 2-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SU loss. This is a total revenge game for PITT after losing on TNF a couple of weeks ago @CLEV, 24-19. It was snowing and PITT was unprepared to deal with it. PITT is a well coached team and Mike Tomlin is a very good HC. But the secondary for PITT sometimes disappears and doesn’t play to their ability. PITT #19 PASS DEF. This is where they can be exploited and will lose games that they should win. Winston is just trying to show everyone that he can still play and is worthy of either starting or backing up in the NFL. Whether he knows it or not, he is a backup not a starter. Over the course of a season, he will fall into bad habits and turn the ball over, a lot. But for a handful of games, he can win a few and put up some good numbers. CLEV will try to topple PITT. But, I don’t see a blowout by PITT in this game but a closely contested game as CLEV & Jameis Winston are looking to bounceback after a loss @DEN that they thought they should have won. Not only that, but it would be good for CLEV to be able to play spoiler and beat PITT again and have the scenario for PITT a little cloudier going forward. Division games are always a little tighter and Winston has become accustomed to these AFC NORTH matches. I think PITT wins the game but it will be smaller than the spread suggests. PITT has a treacherous schedule going forward. After this game, they play @PHILLY, @BALT vs KC & CINNCY. All will be tough. By the way, CLEV has not won @PITT in 18years. Maybe they are looking to change that. Take CLEV & the points here and don’t be surprised if this game is decided by a fg at the end.

THE PICK: CLEV+6 ½

Las Vegas Raiders (2-10), (4-8) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS        LV+7

LW, TB was on the brink off a loss @CAR. I liked CAR -5 ½ @HOME vs TB because all of a sudden CAR is playing better and not letting teams steamroll them. This game was tied 23-23 in OT & it looked like CAR would win but CAR fumbled and TB got the bal back and drove down the field, kicked a fg and won 26-23. TB QB Baker Mayfield had 2INTs that resulted in 2fgs for CAR. But CAR played very tough and TB needed a run game that produced 238yds & 1td on 39carries to win this game.

LW, people thought I was crazy liking LV+13 @KC. Well, my reasons were that KC was winning ugly and LV was going to give them a tough game because playing KC is like their SuperBowl. LV actually had chances to win it but missed 3fgs which put a damper on a hotly contested game. LV actually had a chance to win it at the end but bad teams find a way to lose and after LV QB Aidan O’Connell got a snap he wasn’t ready for, KC recovered the ball and saved the win. But the LV DEF put the team in a position to win by sacking KC QB Pat Mahomes 5x and keeping the KC run game to a minimum. KC was up in this game 16-3 before O’Connell led 2drives that led to 2tds and a 17-16 lead. But then Mahomes led a drive that resulted in a fg for KC and in the end LV lost 19-17. L5 LV vs TB, LV 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. LV 13-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LV 25-46-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 36-56-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LV 6-15-3 ATS after KC. LV 15-11-1 ATS off SU div loss. LV 8-4 ATS AWAY off SU div loss. LV 8-10-1 ATS L19 w/rest. LV 7-6 ATS AWAY vs .400> non-conf opp. LV 13-9 ATS vs non-div opp when a DOG 7>pts. TB 7-10-1 ATS after CAR. TB 4-3-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. TB 35-38-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 29-35-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 4-8-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 1-6 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV >2pts vs opp off BB SU losses. TB is not known for their run game. TB #8 RUSH OFF has RBs Bucky Irving & Rachaad White, not exactly household names. But they try to take as much pressure off of QB Mayfield as possible. Mayfield is a gunslinger and tries to thread some needles when he shouldn’t but, that’s the way he has always been. He may have felt some urgency last week @CAR because TB started out 4-2 and then lost four straight to go below .500. They have won 2straight but they have been vs very bad teams so that is no sign how they will due vs better competition. Plus, barely getting by CAR was not a god thing. LV just can’t beat anyone. This season has been a disaster but they played KC very tough like I thought they would. But, bad teams find a way to lose and LV has found ways to lose this season when they were in reaching distance of winning. One surprise has been their DEF vs the RUN.  LV #11 RUSH DEF. They even limited KC to 59yds rushing from their 2RBs. In the pass game the LV DEF has been decent, LV #14 PASS DEF. Believe it or not, this is a game that could go either way. TB has had some impressive wins this season beating @DET & vs PHILLY. But losing to ATL 2x, is unexplainable. LV has nothing to lose and is playing for jobs while TB is trying to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Fortunately for TB they play in the NFC SOUTH where a possible losing record could get them into the playoffs. But I like LV in a close game here. Take LV and the points here. 

THE PICK: LV+7

Sunday December 8^th, 2024 4:00pm

Seattle Seahawks (7-5), (6-5-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-1-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (6-6), (7-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS                           SEA+2

LW, SEA was losing 21-7 @NYJ when NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers threw a pass that SEA DE Leonard Williams intercepted and ran back 92yds for a td. Had NYJ scored a td it would have made the score NYJ 28-7 and a big hill to climb for SEA. I liked SEA-2 and it didn’t look good but the PICK6 turned the game around for SEA and SEA ended up winning 26-21. This was a mistake filled game by both teams but SEA was able to score a td and kick a fg in the 4^th qtr for the win. SEA QB Geno Smith did not turn the ball over which is a god sign. LW, ARZ was +3 ½ @MINN and leading 19-6 before MINN woke up. I had liked MINN because they are playing toe to toe with GB for a wild card spot. But ARZ had been playing well in this game making stops and creating MINN turnovers. But MINN woke up and went on a 17-3 run and pressured ARZ QB Kyler Murray into 2INTS down the stretch that led to the MINN 23-22 win. However, ARZ was able to run for 154yds on 31carries vs the #1 RUN DEF in the NFL but the ARZ DEF couldn’t stop MINN when they needed it most. ARZ would certainly like to have this one back. L17 SEA @ARZ, SEA 10-6-1 SU & 9-6-2 ATS. L23 SEA vs ARZ, ROAD 15-7-1 ATS. L29 ARZ vs SEA, ARZ 11-16-2 ATS. SEA 7-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. SEA 39-31 ATS AWY in DEC. SEA 36-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SEA 48-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 16-6-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-3 ATS as a conf DOG off SUATS win. SEA 14-4 ATS as a conf DOG >1pt off SUATS win. SEA 5-10 ATS after a non-conf ROAD gm. SEA 9-9 ATS AWAY off non-conf opp vs conf opp. ARZ 14-8 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. ARZ 33-27 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. ARZ 25-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ARZ 41-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 2-11 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts. ARZ 22-11 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 0-8 ATS L8 vs >.500 div opp. There is a little revenge on the minds of ARZ here. These two teams met just two weeks ago in SEA with SEA winning 16-6. The turning point of that game came when ARZ QB Kyler Murray threw a lob passed that sailed and SEA returned it for td. Other than that it was very tight game and I liked ARZ’s chances in that game. With SEA, you really don’t know what you are getting from week to week. They have had many problems in the redzone which showed its ugly face last week vs NYJ and it has plagued them all season. SEA QB Geno Smith has been very inconsistent in his play and which has caused SEA to lose some games they should have won. ARZ is thinking two things. A bounceback after a loss and how they lost @MINN. Plus, the revenge factor vs SEA. Murray is having a good season with ARZ & having a reliable RB in James Conner has certainly made a difference. He is certainly getting it done and taking a lot of pressure off of Murray to win games by himself. Both of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot in the wild NFC WEST. Since SF has been underperforming, it is wide open as to who will win the division. I like ARZ in this contest for the reasons I mentioned but SEA will not go down easy. This will be a hard fought game and turnovers will be huge. But I like ARZ tow in by a fg at the end. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: ARZ-2

Buffalo Bills (10-2), (9-3) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (6-6), (6-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                     LAR+4 ½  

LW, I liked LAR -2 ½ @NO for simple reasons. First, NO is not that good and second, LAR was on a bounceback. LAR barely won this game as the game was tied 14-14 in the 4^th qtr. Both teams ran the ball well and neither team had a turnover. But it was luck at the end of the game for LAR that won out. NO had a 1^st & 10 from the LAR 16yd line with 2:41 and five more plays later, couldn’t get into the endzone. LAR had acted like they just won the SuperBowl. LAR rushed for 158yds in this game and NO rushed for 143 yds. LAR QB Matthews Stafford threw for 183yds and NO QB Derek Carr threw for 184yds. Neither team had a turnover. It wasn’t exciting but LAR got the win. LW in the snow @BUFF on SNF, BUFF blew out SF 35-10. SF was ill equipped to battle the elements and BUFF passed and rushed over SF like they weren’t even there. BUFF rushed for 220yds & 3tds. BUFF QB Josh Allen threw for 2tds and this game it was BUFF 21-3 at the half. The SF DEF put up little resistance in a game that saw a lot of snow on the ground and was snowing throughout the game. L6 BUFF vs LAR, BUFF 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS. BUFF 18-20-1 ATS L39 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 11-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. BUFF 44-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 42-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 11-6 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. BUFF 5-5 ATS as a FAV >3pts after scoring 35>pts. LAR 12-13-1 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. LAR 32-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 29-45 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAR 11-11 ATS before SF. LAR 2-7 ATS L9 vs AFC EAST. LAR is an average team at best. At times they put up some nice numbers but when they play playoff contending teams, LAR is not on the same level. LAR has beaten SF, LV, MINN, @SEA, @NE & @NO. The only team that will be making the playoffs in that group is MINN. LAR has lost to @DET, @ARZ, @CHI, GB, MIA & PHILLY. They are all playoff teams except CHI. BUFF is a powerhouse and is on a mission to get either the #1 seed or #2 seed in the AFC. It is almost like they feel that it is their year and QB Josh Allen is leading the way. He has thrown only 5INTS vs 20TDs. Also, he has only been sacked 13x in 12games. He also tends to take off running more than other QBs but the O-LINE for BUFF has done a better job protecting Allen than in past years. This has also opened up a run game for BUFF with RBs James Cook & Ray Davis. Opposing DEFs can’t always defend against a QB like Allen that can take off at any time. BUFF has designed specific run plays for Allen in situations that he feels that opposing DEFs are sleeping. Just look at the game vs KC. BUFF #10 TOT OFF w/#11 RUSH OFF & #17 PASS OFF vs LAR #25 TOT DEF w/#28 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. The RUN game for BUFF is top notch while the LAR RUN DEF is at the bottom. Don’t be surprised if BUFF rushes for over 200yds in this game. SF had a better RUB DEF than LAR and they gave up over 200yds on the ground. I like BUFF here as LAR will be steam rolled as BUFF is looking to leave no doubt that they are on a mission this season. By the way, LAR will get a dummy td at the end to make the score look closer than it is. I have never been a BIG fan of LAR HC Sean McVay because he plays a conservative game and lets other teams hang around. That’s why LAR is in so many close wins.  That’s how LAR HC Sean McVay rolls. Lay the points here as BUFF shows LAR who’s the boss.  

THE PICK: BUFF-4 ½

Chicago Bears (4-8), (7-4-1) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (5-7), (4-8) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                CHI+6

On SNF, SF looked like a mess @BUFF. The spread went from SF+3 ½ to SF +7 but, it didn’t matter because SF lost 35-10. I liked BUFF @-3 ½ and I liked them @-7 because SF is decimated with injuries and BUFF is just playing at another level than SF. There was a lot of snow on the ground for this game and it was snowing throughout the game so it became mostly a run game. SF didn’t adapt as well as BUFF did and the score reflected it. Plus, 2RBs for SF went out of this game. On Thanksgiving, DET was up 23-7 vs CHI and it looked like DET would coast to an easy victory. But no one told CHI and they fought back to a 23-20 game. CHI was driving in the last minute with an actual opportunity to win the game or at least kick a fg to tie the game and possibly send it to OT. Well, CHI HC Matt Eberfus completely mismanaged and wasted the remaining time and the possession. CHI ended up letting the clock run out and not using their last time out. Everyone was wondering what just happened as it looked like CHI looked like they didn’t know what they were doing. CHI QB Caleb Williams had one of his better games so far throwing for 20/39, 256yds, 3tds & 0turnovers. He was sacked 5x . DET missed a fg down the stretch that opened the door for the CHI comeback. L12 CHI vs SF, CHI 7-5 SU & 6-6 ATS. CHI 11-11-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CHI 24-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 33-51-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 8-10-3 ATS after DET. CHI 10-13 ATS before MINN. CHI 6-8 ATS w/rest off SU loss. SF9-13-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SF 36-31-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 41-46-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 7-10 ATS before LAR. SF 11-17 ATS after allowing 28> vs non-div opp. SF 4-11 ATS as a FAV off DD Su loss. SF 14-23 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. SF 7-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500opp. SF 1-14 ATS L15 as a HOME FAV 13<pts vs .333<opp. SF 0-6 ATS L6 as a FAV off DD SU ROAD loss. SF RB Christian McCaffrey injured his knee (PCL) during a non-contact play and will be out for the rest of 2024. Also, SF RB Jordan Mason will also be out for the rest of 2024 suffering an ankle injury in the BUFF game as well. SF has been decimated by injuries this season and when they are healthy, they have been rusty from not playing together. Isaac Guerendo will move into the starting RB position where he has excelled when he was asked to do so. He had 99yds rushing @SEA & 85yds rushing vs DAL, both wins for SF. CHI has a new HC after firing Ebertus after his time dabacle @DET on Thanksgiving. CHI OC Thomas Brown takes over as the CHI interim HC for now. CHI has nothing to lose in this game. What almost always happens with a new HC is there is that positive bump in the 1^st game. SF is decimated with injuries and may win this game outright but, I strongly feel it will be a close one IF SF even wins. CHI should feel good that they almost came back against the best team in the NFC. Take CHI & the points here. CHI QB Caleb Williams has been sacked 49x and the O-LINE has to be addressed in the off-season. He has been getting better with his throws because he has cut down on his INTs. Also, the CHI DEF needs to do a better job. SF has a great DEF on paper. SF #5 TOT DEF w/#15 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. But in critical situations they have disappeared. Was BUFF so good that the SF DEF was ineffective on SNF? It didn’t look like they were too motivated out there and they were not stopping BUFF at all. I like CHI after the HC change and the fact that they have a chance to really knock SF further out of the playoff picture. I like CHI to keep it close here and maybe even steal one because they are so overdue.   

THE PICK: CHI+6

Sunday December 8^th, 2024 8:20pm

Los Angeles Chargers (8-4), (8-3-1) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-1), (4-7-1) ATS, (6-0) HOME, (2-4) ATS                  LAC+4   

LW, LAC needed a PICK6 & 4 INTS by ATL QB Kirk Cousins to win the game @ATL, 17-13. If it wasn’t for Cousins and ATL being a faker, they would have demolished LAC. But, I knew better as ATL would not rise to the occasion. On top of that, the D-LINE for LAC went to sleep. LAC had only 1sack of Cousins and he was the one who caused the turnovers, not the LAC DEF. ATL was playing a crap game and was still leading in the 4^th qtr, 10-9. That tells you how bad LAC is. LAC was trailing very late in the game when Cousins threw a PICK6 with 1:39 left in the game to give LAC the lead 17-10. Then, with :03 left in the game, ATL kicked a fg to make the final score LAC 17-13. LW, I loved LV+13 @KC. I knew that no matter who the LV QB was, LV would play KC tough. Sure enough LV played a very competitive game (after trailing 16-3) and actually put up more yards than KC but KC would prevail, 19-17. KC QB Pat Mahomes spread the ball around to 9different receivers and pulled another rabbit out the hat. LV was actually leading in the 4^th qtr 17-16 but KC kicked a fg to make it KC 19-17 and then watched as LV punted, missed a fg and then fumbled in their next 3possessions. KC was up 16-3 in this game but squandered a lead that made this game nervous for KC fans. LV missed 3fgs in this game as KC also missed a fg. KC found another way to win to be the 1^st in the AFC to clinch a playoff spot. L17 LAC @KC, LAC 8-9 SU & 10-7 ATS. L35 LAC vs KC, LAC 14-21 SU & 15-19-1 ATS. L35 LAC vs KC, DOG 22-12-1 ATS. L23 LAC vs KC, LAC 5-18 SU & 9-13-1 ATS. L35 LAC vs KC, ROAD 22-12-1 ATS. LAC 13-10 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 11-10-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAC 29-39-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 33-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 38-31-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 5-1 ATS w/rev vs .750>opp. LAC 4-17 ATS vs opp w/rest. KC 9-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. KC 17-14 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 9-15 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 6-12 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 3-8 ATS as a FAV <9pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 41-32 ATS @HOME in DEC. KC 46-40-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 41-30 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 11-7 ATS vs .500> div opp. KC 8-15 ATS after LV. KC 8-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge off SUATS win. KC 13-2 ATS after div gm vs .500>opp. LAC is a faker of a team. LAC is without RB JK Dobbins and he is a different RB than Gus Edwards. Who has LAC beaten? LV, CAR, NO, @CLEV, TENN, CINNCY (should have lost), @ATL. All crap teams and some fakers themselves. LAC has lost to @PITT, KC, @ARZ & BALT, all playoff teams. They played KC tight in wk 4. LAC was winning that game 10-0 but KC put the clamps down and won 17-10. KC has been playing games just enough to win. KC was worse off last season and ended up winning the SuperBowl. However, the last 5wins for KC have been by 7pts or less in all of them. But, KC finds a way to win because Superman wears a red jersey with the #15 on the back. Until you beat the best you can’t be considered the best. The LAC DEF on paper looks good but they tend to go to sleep and vs good teams, not show up at all. LAC #14 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & #11 PASS DEF. LAC will be coming into this game feeling good off the win @ATL and they will be beaten convincingly by KC. They lost by 7pts @HOME to BALT and they will lose by 10pt here @KC. KC needs a convincing win to give them some breathing room and this will be the game going forward. KC doesn’t have that tough of a schedule moving forward and this will give them some breathing room before wk 17 @PITT. Lay the points here as KC should win by at least 10pts for a breather of a win. Look for some turnovers by LAC that prove costly.    

THE PICK: KC-4 

Monday December 9^th, 2024 8:15pm

Cincinnati Bengals (4-8), (6-6) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (5-7), (5-7) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS                              DAL+6

LW on Thanksgiving did anyone think NYG would beat DAL? DAL needed this game just for emotional reasons. DAL played a good game and had a PICK6 on DEF which helped their cause. DAL RB Rico Dowdle rushed for 112yds & 1td on 22carries and the NYG DEF had no answer. DAL QB Cooper Rush played smart and spread the ball around to 8different receivers. The DAL DEF sacked NYG QB Drew Lock 6x and had a PICK6 & recovered a fumble. DAL had a 27-10 lead before NYG scored a td and a fg in the 4^th qtr for the final, DAL 27-20. It was a good win for DAL but it was vs NYG. LW, CINNCY didn’t give up in the battle vs PITT. I liked PITT+3 @CINNCY because they were coming off a game they should have won and CINNCY is not playing well. But even though PITT had a 41-24 lead in the 4^th qtr, I sort of knew that CINNCY would make a run at it. As long as CINNCY QB Joe Burrow is standing upright, CINNCY always has a shot at winning. CINNCY scored 2tds in the 4^th qtr but PITT added a fg and the final was PITT 44-38. This was sloppy game for both teams and Burrow had 3turnovers which resulted in 10pts for PITT. In turn, PITT had 1turnover which accounted for 7pts for CINNCY. Burrow was sacked 4x but the CINNCY RBs actually had a good game rushing for 84yds on 15carries. Unfortunately, CINNCY played catchup in the 2^nd half as PITT kept scoring. L6 CINNCY vs DAL, CINNCY 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS. CINNCY 2-3-1 ATS AWAY on MNF. CINNCY 18-8 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 13-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CINNCY 30-33-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 29-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 10-12 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 12-9-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 5-6-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 4-6 ATS as a FAV 9<pts after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 10-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. DAL 12-11-1 ATS L24 as a HOME DOG. DAL 9-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. DAL 33-38-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 28-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 15-4 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. DAL 10-4 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs non-div opp. DAL 19-9-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <8pts. DAL 17-4 ATS off SU win vs .333<opp. DAL Owner/GM Jerry Jones should step aside as GM after this season. He makes terrible decisions and doesn’t know football. He is stuck with QB Dak Prescott & WR Ceedee Lamb and this team is going nowhere. So they beat NYG, so what! There are plenty of overpaid guys on this team and that leaves little room for improvement in other areas. LB Micah Parson is overrated and disappears for most of the game. CINNCY is coming off a loss and is looking at a bounceback situation. In their minds they may think that they have a shot at a wild card but their season is over. The CINNCY OFF is great w/Joe Burrow but, they need a RB that can consistently get 70yds a game. Here is the matchup. CINNCY #9 TOT OFF w/#1 PASS OFF vs DAL #26 TOT DEF w/#14 PASS DEF. In the game vs PITT, Burrow was still able to spread the ball around to 7different receivers. How many will he throw to in this game? DAL is terrible @HOME and is having a very bad season. The DAL schedule may be a little favorable but DAL could find that it will be a lost season very quickly even though they may think a wild card spot is in reach. The only DAL victory this season that has been impressive was @PITT and that was won in the closing seconds of the game in week 5. I like CINNCY here laying the points as Burrow and CO will attack the DAL DEF like it isn’t there. This game should have CINNCY winning by a t least 10pts.    

THE PICK: CINNCY-6