2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 7 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYES: Chicago Bears & Dallas Cowboys

Thursday October 17^th, 2024 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                       DEN-2

LW, DEN @HOME spotted LAC a 23-0 lead before they woke up and had to play some football. DEN mounted a comeback but, it was too little too late. DEN scored 2tds & 1fg on 3straight possessions but missed a 2pt conversion that would have made it 23-15. DEN would have needed another td plus the 2pt conversion to tie. The final score was LAC 23-16. In the 1^st half of this game, the DEN OFF punted 3x and turned the ball over 2x which LAC turned into 10pts. It was LAC 20-0 at the half and DEN was in a big hole. The DEN DEF that I raved about was flat in this game. LW, NO @ HOME vs TB looked like it was going to be a shootout. I liked TB as the ROAD FAV-3 ½ because NO was without QB Derek Carr and the team as a whole has been flat. NO made a game of it, at least for the 1^st half. TB was up 17-0 when NO scored 20 straight points on a fg, punt return td, fg, and a passing td all in the 2^nd qtr. TB responded with a td and NO responded with another td to make the halftime score NO 27-24. But in the 2^nd half the TB DEF took over and shut down the NO OFF completely. NO punted 4x and NO Rookie QB Spencer Rattler threw 2INTS that TB turned into tds. TB scored 27 straight points to win 51-27. TB also sacked Rattler 5x. NO has lost 4in a row. L5 DEN vs NO, DEN 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. DEN 11-11 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. DEN 8-2 ATS on TNF vs non-div opp. DEN 11-6 ATS on TNF. DEN 7-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. DEN 6-11 ATS after LAC. DEN 29-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 35-41 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 1-6 ATS L7 AWAY vs .333<opp. NO 8-8-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. NO 9-10 ATS after TB. NO 13-7-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NO 33-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 34-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 5-12-2 ATS on TNF. NO 0-9-2 ATS vs non-div opp on TNF. NO 4-5 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. NO 8-0 ATS L8 off BB SUATS loss vs .600<opp. NO 13-2 ATS L15 after allowing 35>pts. Both of these teams are coming off losses. DEN’s DEF is still top notch. DEN #4 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. NO is in a tailspin. They have talented players but now with Rattler as the QB for now, who knows? DEN needs to get their running game going to be successful and take some pressure off of their QB, Bo Nix. He has shown that he can handle pressure but he can’t do everything and he shouldn’t have to. As for NO, the losses have gotten worse form their 2-0 start. NO lost by 3pts to PHILLY in a game they should have won. They lost by 2pts @ATL in a game they should have won. They lost @HOME to KC by 13pts and this last loss. NO is a much different team with TE Taysom Hill who is still questionable. On a short week, you give him the rest and he comes back next week. NO S Tyrann Mathieu is probable and he leads BIG in the NO secondary. This game has a lot riding on it for both teams but I have to give the edge to NO because they need to get back to some form of winning. If DEN opens up this game on OFF, it will be tough to stop. Plus, I see the DEN DEF creating some turnovers against the NO rookie QB. But again, NO has stars on OFF & DEF that need to make some plays. NO RB Alvin Kamara will be a BIG factor for NO. This game could come down to a fg. CB Pat Surtain is in concussion protocol and that’s BIG. Take NO here as the HOME team.     

THE PICK: NO+2  

Sunday October 20^th, 2024 9:30am

New England Patriots (1-5), (1-4-1) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5), (2-3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS (London, England)  NE+5 ½

LW, JAGS were the visitor in London vs CHI. The JAGS continue to dig themselves a hole and have to play catchup to no avail. The JAGS DEF gave up 4tds to rookie CHI QB Caleb Williams and also gave up 152 rushing yds as CHI beat the JAGS 35-16. JAGS had 2turnovers in the 2^nd half that CHI turned them into 2tds and the game was over. Self inflicted wounds have killed the JAGS and the bleeding has to stop somewhere or the owner will clean house in the off-season. LW, NE was in a hole @HOME vs HOU 14-0 in the 1^st qtr. I liked HOU as a ROAD FAV-7 because HOU needed a game to get their OFF in sync w/o WR Nico Collins. HOU did just that and it was pretty much a cake walk for HOU, winning 41-21. NE gave up 192yds rushing and HOU QB CJ Stroud threw for 3tds. NE QB Drake Maye threw for 3tds but had 2INTs, 1 lost fumble plus another fumble by TE Austin Hooper and HOU turned that into 17pts. However, don’t look into Maye’s stats that much because NE was playing catchup the whole game. HOU was scoring at will and had a nice lead to play a soft DEF. NE needs a lot of help on both sides of the ball. L6 NE vs JAGS, NE 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. NE 27-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 40-25-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 14-3 ATS as a DOG off DD loss. NE 16-15-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 11-9-2 ATS before NYJ. NE 12-2 ATS as a DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. NE 20-9-1 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. NE 15-12 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 15-2 ATS L17 off DD SU HOME loss. JAGS 6-6 ATS in London. JAGS 9-17 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. JAGS 17-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 21-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 11-16 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. JAGS 11-11-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs conf opp. JAGS 8-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss >10pts. This will probably be a game that is the least watched this weekend. No one really cares about this game except JAGS fans, NE fans & bettors. Both of these teams are in major tailspins. NE is trying to rebuild with a rookie QB and holes everywhere on the team. JAGS have talent on paper but can’t seem to put it all together on the field. Since starting 8-3 last season, JAGS are 2-10 SU & 3-8-1 ATS, terrible. They can’t seem to stop anyone and are always playing catchup. The JAGS DEF made CHI QB Caleb Williams look like Superman last week. JAGS are much more talented than NE on paper and this is a game that will boost their self morale. This should be a tune up game for them because JAGS are desperate for a win. As for NE, they have a long way to go and the O-LINE is still bad giving whoever the QB no time to really to see the field. The NE QB is always under pressure. NE is #19 RUSH DEF & #24 PASS DEF so JAGS should open it up this weekend. Lay the points here. 

THE PICK: JAGS-5 ½

Sunday October 20^th, 2024 1:00pm

Seattle Seahawks (3-3), (2-3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-1-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (1-3) ATS                       SEA+3

LW, on TNF, SEA played catchup @HOME vs SF from the get go. SEA made it interesting in the 3^rd qtr when they returned a kickoff for td and then on the next possession scored a td but SF was just playing with SEA because of their own desperate situation. SEA got as close as 23-17 but SF pulled away for a 36-24 win. SEA could not stop the SF ground attack as SF rushed for 228yds & 1td on 33carries. This took a lot of pressure off of SF QB Brock Purdy who lit up the SEA secondary for 3tds, 0INTS & 0sacks. LW, I liked ATL-5 ½ @CAR. Right now games vs CAR are tune up games but for a while it was ATL 25-20 until ATL pulled away and slammed the door on CAR for a 38-20 win. The OFF for ATL is humming and CAR had no answers either on the ground or in the air. ATL rushed for 198yds & 3tds on 38carries which took a lot of pressure off of QB Kirk Cousins to dismantle the CAR secondary. CAR sacked him 0x & had 0INTs. Cousins spread the ball around nicely to 6different receivers and looks a lot more comfortable now with this team then he did in week 1. L9 SEA vs ATL, ATL 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS. SEA 13-6 ATS after SF. SEA 33-39-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 32-36-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 7-12 ATS L19 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 15-5 ATS off div HOME gm vs non-div opp. SEA 13-2 ATS vs .500> non-div conf opp. SEA 1-5 ATS L6 w/rest. ATL 11-6-1 ATS after CAR. ATL 10-12 ATS before TB. ATL 31-37 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 25-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 7-11 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. ATL 2-13 ATS @HOME off SUATS FAV win. ATL 0-5 ATS L5 after DD SU win. SEA is a faker of a team because QB Geno Smith is showing who he really is which is just an average QB. The DEF for SEA can’t stop anyone. SEA #19 TOT DEF w/ #27 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. What ATL should do is run the hell out of the ball as they did @CAR, then drop passes all over against an overrated secondary. ATL is looking a lot better and should be 5-1. But, they also got lucky in a couple of games as well and you could say they should be 2-4. Either way, the OFF for ATL is humming. Cousins has only been sacked 10x in 6games which means that the O-LINE is doing their job. He may need to cut down on the INTs though, he has 5. ATL #6 PASS OFF aided by that 509yd performance a couple of weeks ago vs TB. But as long as ATL RBs Tyler Allgeier & Bijan Robinson can run well and keep opposing DEFs honest ATL should go deep in the playoffs. ATL should win this game easily even though SEA is on a bounceback and is coming off a rest. SEA has not beaten anyone good and gives up a lot of points to teams they shouldn’t. Lay the points here as ATL should roll unless they get careless and start beating themselves. 

THE PICK: ATL-3 

Tennessee Titans (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                                          TENN+9 ½  

LW, BUFF got very lucky in their win on MNF @NYJ. NYJ was pumped because of a new HC and NYJ beat themselves as usual. NYJ missed 2fgs and had a gift INT for BUFF that gave BUFF a 23-20 win. In their DEF, BUFF didn’t turn the ball over and took advantage of the opportunities that were given them by the NYJ. BUFF did rush for 149yds & 1td and BUFF QB Josh Allen did throw for 2tds but NYJ didn’t do anything to stop BUFF. LW, I liked INDY as the FAV @TENN because Flacco was starting for INDY. Had QB Richardson started for INDY I would have liked TENN. TENN was actually leading 17-10 in the 4^th qtr but TENN couldn’t do anything with ball on four possessions except punt 3x and throw an INT while INDY kicked a fg and threw a td for a 20-17 INDY win. TENN did rush for 146yds & 1td on 28carries. TENN QB Will Levis wasn’t sacked but had a less than an average game throwing for 95yds on 16/27 passing with 1td & 1INT. There are many players frustrated on the TENN team that is underperforming well below standards. L10 TENN vs BUFF, TENN 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS. TENN 9-15 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TENN 36-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 35-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. TENN 13-5 ATS vs .600> opp off ATS win. BUFF 7-7-2 ATS after NYJ. BUFF 31-34-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 29-42-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF picked up WR Amari Cooper from CLEV this week and BUFF QB Josh Allen probably can’t wait to get him the ball. One down note is that Cooper leads the NFL in dropped passes but, that won’t cut it in BUFF. Cooper adds something to a receiver corps that has looked a little down at times. Cooper will be BUFF’s #1WR. TENN is not a good team even though they do have some stars on OFF & DEF. TENN QB Will Levis is still on a learning curve and needs to be able to stay comfortable in the pocket. Even with no pressure on him, he seems to be a little nervous. This is a game that BUFF will look to take advantage and get a blowout win. They will work with getting Cooper the ball and TENN has to know that but, that will leave other open. Allen should be able to pick up on that and take advantage of it. These are two teams going in opposite directions. BUFF’s OFF has slipped since last season, BUFF #5 TOT OFF in 2023, BUFF #21 TOT OFF in 2024. But it will certainly not look like that this week vs a wounded TENN team. I like BUFF @HOME to blowout TENN. Lay the points here.   

THE PICK: BUFF-9 ½

Cincinnati Bengals (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                        CLEV+6

LW, I liked CINNCY-3 ½ @ NYG on SNF because they showed they could score vs BALT and were on a bounceback after a game they should have won. CINNCY did run into a brick wall vs the NYG DEF but CINNCY didn’t get turnoveritous. CINNCY RB Zack Moss did have a fumble which did lead to a NYG td but QB Joe Burrow did not have a turnover while being sacked 4x. He did run for 55yds & 1td on 4carries. Due to miscues on the part of NYG, CINNCY escaped with a win, 17-7. This game was 10-7 when NYG missed a fg and later missed another fg that would have made the game more interesting in the final minute. CINNCY underestimated the NYG DEF who gave problems to Burrow & CO all night. LW, CLEV+9 was @PHILLY. I liked PHILLY to roll over CLEVE but even PHILLY is having a tough time these days. Due to miscues by PHILLY this game was 13-13 in the 4^th qtr. CLEV had chances to take the lead in this game but instead of getting tds, CLEV had to settle for fgs. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was sacked 5x but did not turn the ball over. CLEV got 89yds rushing from their RB by committee which did take some pressure off of Watson but couldn’t get him tds. CLEV ended up losing 20-16. L17 CLEV(H) vs CINNCY, CLEV 10-7 SU & 7-8-1 ATS. L25 CLEV vs CINNCY, CINNCY 13-8-4 ATS. L34 CLEV vs CINNCY, DOG 19-11-4 ATS. L34 CLEV vs CINNCY, CINNCY 17-13-4 ATS. L21 CLEV vs CINNCY, CINNCY 13-5-3 ATS. CINNCY15-8 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 16-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 30-42 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 26-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 17-34-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CINNCY 11-7 ATS L18 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 14-4 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CLEV 15-19-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 13-11-3 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CLEV 27-20-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEV 32-40-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 14-13-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. CLEV 6-10-1 ATS before BALT. CLEV 16-12 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEV 6-5 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm vs div opp. CLEV 4-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB div gms. CLEV traded WR Amari Cooper to BUFF. He led the league in dropped passes and helped CLEV lose to LV a few weeks ago. He seemed to have lost something when he came to CLEV from DAL. CLEV TE David Njoku made his return back from injury and we will probably see him more intertwined in the OFF as the season progresses. He is a big target for Watson. CLEV RB Nick Chubb is scheduled to make his return from his knee injury that he suffered last season. He had a couple of surgeries on it and is slated to play this week. CLEV RB Jerome Ford is questionable for this game with a hamstring but don’t expect Chubb to run like wild 1^st game out. He hasn’t been in full training and is just being activated from the PUP list. CLEV is very banged up & on DEF as well. For CINNCY, you know they will be working out some kinks that they encountered vs NYG. CINNCY has an OFF that usually clicks and they will look to get it going vs CLEV. In 2023, CLEV had a #10 RUSH DEF, in 2024 #21 RUSH DEF. In 2023, CLEV had #1 PASS DEF, in 2024 #11 PASS DEF. The DEF has slipped a lot and don’t think for one moment that Burrow hasn’t taken notice. For CINNCY to be successful in this game, CINNCY needs to get at least 70yds out of their RBs. This will take tremendous pressure off of Burrow and keep the CINNCY DEF guessing. In the game vs NYG, CINNCY WRs Tee Higgins & Ja’Marr Chase had an average game, so you know they will be looking to break out. Will CLEV be able to stop them? The CINNCY DEF needs to make some plays to have Watson make mistakes. He is prone to mistakes under pressure and that’s what the CINNCY DEF needs to do. This game has blowout written all over it as CINNCY needs an ego booster to get them in the right frame of mind for the journey ahead. They have not shown it yet and this would be the right time. Lay the points here as CINNCY should have a field day at CLEV’s expense.  

THE PICK: CINNCY-6

Houston Texans (5-1), (2-3-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                        HOU+2 ½

LW, I liked HOU-7 @NE. HOU was coming off a big game vs BUFF and this was sort of a tune up game. NE doesn’t have an O-LINE and their DEF spends too much time on the field. I said that HOU would get their OFF in sync w/o WR Nico Collins and they did. HOU WR Stefon Diggs has moved into the #1WR position but HOU QB CJ Stroud needs to move the ball around more because GB is not NE. This game was never in doubt as HOU took a 14-0 lead in the 1^st qtr and scored another 27pts in the 2^nd half for a 41-21 win. The HOU DEF sacked NE QB Drake Maye 4x, had 2INTs and recovered 2fumbles. HOU would have scored more pts in the 1^st half if it wasn’t for miscues on their part. LW, GB@HOME vs ARZ, took a 24-0 lead in the 2^nd qtr and ARZ was in a hole. ARZ made it interesting and it was 24-10 at the half and ARZ was getting the ball to start the 2^nd half. But, ARZ only managed a fg and GB answered with a td to make the score 31-13 and it was basically over. ARZ QB was mostly kept in the pocket rushing 7x for only 14yds. GB QB Jordan Love threw for 22/32, 258yds, 4tds & 1INT. He was sacked 0x. He had almost no pressure on him all day to take apart the ARZ secondary and that’s what he did for a 34-13 GB win. Also, GB rushed for a combined 179yds with their 2RBs pus some trick plays from their receivers. HOU take note. L5 HOU vs GB, GB 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. HOU 8-10-3 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. HOU 16-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 21-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 12-3 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 8-14 ATS before INDY. HOU 2-10 ATS off BB SU wins. HOU 3-14 ATS AWAY vs non-conf opp. HOU 7-16-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG. GB 14-8-2 ATS in n2d of BB HGs. GB 39-37-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 27-30-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 25-27-2 ATS L54 vs AFC. GB 1-7 ATS @HOME off DD SU non-div win. GB 13-13-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 11-3 ATTS @HOME off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SUATS win. GB 5-13-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. GB 9-4 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. Both of these teams are coming off nice wins. Both of the wins were blowouts. Both teams have very good young QBs. The OFF for both teams have many players that can make plays. GB #4 TOT OFF & HOU #6 TOT OFF. However, when it comes to the DEF, HOU is better. HOU #3 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & 34 PASS DEF vs GB #18 TOT DEF w/#8 RUSH DEF & #25 PASS DEF. Don’t think for a minute that HOU & QB CJ Stroud haven’t taken notice. The secondary for GB can disappear at times and against a QB that is talented that may be a problem. GB hasn’t beaten anyone good. They beat INDY w/QB Anthony Richardson. They beat TENN w/QB Will Levis. GB barely beat LAR without any of their BIG WRs and they beat ARZ that has spurts of greatness vs NFC WEST but stink vs everyone else. HOU has beaten BUFF but their schedule so far hasn’t been vs playoff caliber teams either. This is a test for both teams and it certainly will be a battle until the end of the game but I like HOU here getting points. The game plan for HOU is to exploit the GB secondary, make them make mistakes. For the HOU DEF, they have to cover the GB WRs Doubs & Watson that are healthy together and looking to make plays. This should be a good game but I like HOU to win outright also because GB QB Jordan Love has a tendency to throw INTs. Stroud doesn’t. That means extra opportunities for HOU. That is a big factor here. Also, right now, HOU RB Joe Mixon is better than GB RB Josh Jacobs.   

THE PICK: HOU+2 ½

Miami Dolphins (2-3), (1-3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (3-3), (3-2-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-0-1) ATS                                  MIA+3 ½  

LW, INDY QB Joe Flacco beat a bad TENN team in TENN, 20-17. I liked INDY+2 ½ with Joe Flacco as the QB and they delivered. INDY was without RB Jonathan Taylor but they got 80yds from RB Tyler Goodson & Trey Sermon that kept the TENN DEF at bay. Flacco threw 2td but TENN had a 13-10 lead going into the 4^th qtr. INDY scored 1fg & 1td in the 4^th qtr while the INDY DEF created an INT and stopped TENN from doing any damage. Before their bye, MIA beat a happless NE team in NE, 15-10. This game came down to the wire and it looked like NE scored a td to win the game but the NE receiver was slightly out of bounds. MIA QB Tyler Huntley started this game and did the best he could for the win. The run game for MIA was able to get 193yds & 1td off of 41 carries which took pressure off of Huntley but this was a game of two teams making a lot of mistakes and hoping for a win at the end. MIA has a lot of injured stars and they did the best with what they had and pulled out the win. L8 INDY vs MIA, INDY 2-6 SU & 4-4 ATS. MIA 35-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 37-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 12-9-1 ATS w/rest(Thrs,bye). INDY 32-35 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 34-34 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 10-10-1 ATS before HOU. INDY 6-1 ATS L7 vs AFC EAST. Like I said LW, Joe Flacco gives INDY the best chance to win. He brings structure to the OFF and accuracy that Anthony Richardson doesn’t have. Richardson is a runner first and that disrupts the OFF. Even without INDY RB Jonathan Taylor, Flacco beat a bad TENN team that rushed for 146yds. Could Richardson do that? MIA is overatted. CB Jalen Ramsey is the most overrated & overpaid CB in the league. Just throw the ball in his direction and he will miss covers or get pass interference calls. MIA 10-6 ATS since 2007 off their bye. With a decent QB and an O-LINE that can protect any QB in the league can beat this team. Look what SEA did just a few weeks ago then what TENN did. Yes TUA is a better QB than what is on the roster for MIA but, he has concussion issues and that’s why MIA is taking it slow. Plus, MIA RBs are banged up too which doesn’t help the QBs. INDY is not good vs the run. INDY #31 RUSH DEF. TENN rushed for 146yds and they stink. How much will MIA run for since they are rested? Whoever the MIA QB is, MIA should run until the INDY DEF falls down. This takes a lot of pressure off of whoever is the MIA QB to drop in passes. Anthony Richardson is slated to start this game for INDY. He will try to do too much and the battered MIA DEF will be waiting. Flacco gives this team a better chance at winning but I’m not the HC for INDY. Richardson’s problems stem from being healthy, accuracy & reading defenses. But staying healthy so far is the main thing. I like MIA because they will run the ball big time and keep Richardson off the field. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor is still questionable with his ankle and looks doubtful at this writing.

THE PICK: MIA+3 ½

Detroit Lions (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (5-0), (5-0) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS                                        DET+2 ½  

LW, DET was a ROAD FAV-3 @DAL. I loved DET here as revenge for last season and a host of other reasons. It was my PICK of the WEEK and boy did DET deliver. They beat DAL in a beat down on both sides of the ball 47-9. DAL managed 3fgs while DET pulled out every trick play they could imagine. DAL also had 5turnovers as the DET DEF was waiting at every turn. It was DET 27-6 at the half and there was no letdown by DET in the 2^nd half. The DET DEF sacked DAL QB Dak Prescott 4x and gave up a measly 53yds rushing. MINN is coming off their bye but before that, they played a HOME gm vs NYJ in London. I liked MINN in that game because it was MINN QB Sam Darnold vs his old team. MINN shot out to a 17-0 lead incl a PICK6 but had to hold off a run by NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers to win the game 23-17. MINN had 3INTS of Rodgers and NYJ actually had a chance to win this game at the end. MINN got a little lacksidasical in the 2^nd half and let NYJ get back into it but won. L17 DET @MINN, DET 5-12 SU but 8-7-2 ATS. L34 DET vs MINN, DET 16-15-3 ATS. L34 DET vs MINN, DOG 13-18-3 ATS. L34 DET vs MINN, HOME 15-16-3 ATS. L30 DET vs MINN, DET 14-14-2 ATS. L20 DET vs MINN, AWAY 11-8-1 ATS. DET 11-15-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. DET 37-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 40-37 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 23-22 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. DET 15-10 ATS AWAY off non-div gm. DET 4-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. DET 9-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 6-11 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs .333>opp. DET 4-6 ATS after scoring 40>pts. DET 7-12 ATS as a DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 5-8 ATS as a div DOG <10pts vs opp w/revenge. DET 10-1 ATS off DD ATS win. 9-0 ATS L9 vs .666>opp. DET 1-8 ATS L9 as a DOG <10pts after scoring 40>pts. MINN 7-9-1 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. MINN 29-29-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 41-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 23-27-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. MINN 10-12-1 ATS w/rest. MINN 2-7 ATS w/rest vs >.500opp. MINN 15-8 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 12-7 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 5-12 ATS vs .666>conf opp. MINN RB Aaron Jones is questionable for this game for DET because of his hip. MINN traded for RB Cam Akers from HOU. Akers was with MINN in 2023 but became expendable in HOU when RBs Joe Mixon & Dameon Pierce returned from injuries. Akers may have something to prove. There can be no let down from DET after a BIG win vs DAL. DET HC Dan Campbell is not the type of guy who has drops in energy. He keeps it high for his team to follow. As for MINN they have been playing well and getting contributions from everyone. MINN QB Sam Donald is not great but, doesn’t need to be. He needs to be average to decent for the rest of the team to do its thing. The game vs NYJ was his worst of the season. He may have been a little too excited playing against his old team. But so far he’s 11tds & 4INTS is better than any of his past seasons. This game will certainly be a battle because DET is right behind MINN for the lead in the NFC NORTH. As we all know, DET wants to get back to a deep run in the playoffs while MINN just wants to get in. This season has been gravy for MINN after losing their rookie QB JJ McCarthy in training camp. This game will be a battle and I don’t see it being a blowout by either team. After a blowout win such as the one DET had last week, teams in general seem to come down a little bit after. The next game is not as easy, scoring wise. But I like DET here as they have something to get out of this game with a win, that would mean the NFC NORTH. I like DET in a close game and also winning outright. Don’t be surprised if you see a trick play from DET left over from last week @DAL.  

THE PICK: DET+2 ½

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ New York Giants (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                              NYG+3

LW, on SNF, NYG were @HOME +3 vs CINNCY. NYG had plenty of chances to win this game but blew all of them. NYG missed a fg that would have tied the game and then missed a fg with a chance to get the ball back. NYG HC Brian Daboll was gutsy going for it on multiple 4^th downs which NYG was 3/5. But NYG could not get into the endzone except for 1td. Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy continued to impress rushing for 50yds & 1td on 17 carries. He also caught 6passes for 57yds and really kept a lot of drives going for NYG. This was a game that NYG could have won because they kept the CINNCY OFF in check. But CINNCY got a late td and the final was CINNCY 17-7. LW, PHILLY beat CLEV 20-16. PHILLY HC Nick Sirianni was acting like he just won the SuperBowl. They barely beat CLEV 20-16, who stink. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts moved the ball around nicely but there were miscues by both sides. PHILLY had a blocked fg that resulted in a td for CLEV and CLEV had a missed fg. PHILLY rushed for 116yds aided by RB Saquon Barkley who had 47yds on 18carries. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts didn’t have any turnovers and passed for 2tds. This game was actually 13-13 in the 4^th qtr but PHILLY got a td and CLEV could only answer with a fg. L17 PHILLY @NYG, PHILLY 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS. L34 PHILLY vs NYG, ROAD 20-13-1 ATS. L34 PHILLY vs NYG, DOG 22-11-1 ATS. PHILLY 16-24 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 8-14 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 2-7 ATS as a FAV 3>pts in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 31-33 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 23-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 47-41 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYG 20-26-1 ATS L47 as a HOME DOG. NYG 8-8-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NYG 28-20 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. NYG 31-35-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 38-24-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 7-4 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs div opp. NYG 5-13 ATS after scoring 10<pts. RB Saquon Barkley will be making his 1^st return to Met Life stadium after signing in the off-season with PHILLY. I’m sure he can’t wait. But remember, NYG HC Brain Daboll knows all of his strengths and weaknesses too. NYG showed a lot of poise on DEF vs CINNCY and PHILLY has almost that kind of OFF going as well. PHILLY is probably looking at this game like NYG are pushovers but NYG has been playing tight football lately except for some miscues. Barkley would love to get going against his old team but NYG is no slouch vs the run. NYG #10 TOT DEF w/#15 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF. NYG QB Daniel Jones seems to be making better decisions and Rookie RB Tyron Tracy has been a nice surprise while Devin Singletary is out. It would be nice for NYG to have a 1-2 RB punch when Singletary returns. If the NYG can play some DEF vs PHILLY, they could win this game. PHILLY has not been playing like they were when they were rolling over people and they haven’t won any games convincingly this season either. They have beaten GB by 5pts, NO by 3pts & CLEV by 4pts. For NYG, they have to catch PHILLY sleeping while stopping Barkley and putting it all on Hurts who will look for the homerun ball. I like NYG @HOME with the points to actually win this game. They should have won on SNF and they will take it out on PHILLY. This should be a good game and I don’t see a blowout by either team. GO BLUE!

THE PICK: NYG+3

Sunday October 20^th, 2024 4:00pm

Las Vegas Raiders (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                               LV+4

LW, LV @HOME vs PITT. I felt strongly that PITT would come out BIG after their last minute loss @HOME to DAL. PITT had that game and I knew they would come out like gangbusters for this game. When a LV S Tre’von Moehring, LV CB Nate Hobbs & LB Robert Spillane make most of the tackles, that means that guys are getting past the D-LINE and not doing their jobs. The LBs are not there too other than Spillane. The only one that is consistent is DE Maxx Crosby and he is getting frustrated too. PITT ran all over LV to the tune of 183yds. RB Najee Harris rushed for 106 while QB Justin Fields added 59yds & 2tds. This game was close in the 1^st qtr than PITT ran away with it. LV had 3miscues that led to 17pts for PITT. It was PITT 29-7 before LV got a dummy td to make the score 29-13 but PITT added a fg to make the final 32-13. LAR is coming off a bye. LAR 12-4-1 ATS since 2007 off their bye. Before their bye, LAR was HOME+3 vs GB. LAR was still without their 2BIG WRs but still made a game of it vs GB. LAR RB Kyren Williams rushed for 102yd & 1td on 22 carries which kept the GB secondary on its toes. LAR was actually leading this game 13-10 at the half but GB got 2tds in the 3^rd qtr on a LAR fumble & INT to pull away 24-10. At that point, LAR had to play catchup to no avail but scored a td late in the game but missed the 2pt conversion to close the gap to 3pts. The final was GB 24-19. LAR could have won this game. L5 LAR vs LV, LAR 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. LV 11-11 ATS 1NL before KC. LV 34-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 40-38 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 11-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG >1pt off SU loss vs <.500opp. LV 10-4-1 ATS vs opp w/rest. LAR 11-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAR 33-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 32-22 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 10-7 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. LAR 16-6 ATS vs <.333opp. LV is a mess. They are poorly coached and it is obvious that they are not prepared. PITT is a running team with Justin Fields as the QB. They should know that. Instead PITT ran all over them. LV has 14turnovers in 6games. That is terrible. Unfortunately for LV, they have also found out that neither Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell is the answer at QB. But the DEF for LV #12 TOT DEF is a shining star but they spend too much time on the field. DE Maxx Crosby has 5 ½ sacks and no one else has more than 2. The DEF has only 2INTs but with pressure up front the opposing QB can’t make devastating passes. You can run on LV because the D-LINE is terrible. LV #23 RUSH DEF. The plan of attack for LAR should be run & keep running until the LV DEF just falls down. Have LAR RBs Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, Ronnie Rivers & whoever just keep attacking. This will definitely open it up in the secondary for whoever LAR has out there at WR. WRs Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua are definitely out this week. But given that LAR is very good off their bye and that LV is such a mess, I like LAR winning @HOME by a td. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: LAR-4  

Carolina Panthers (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS          CAR+7 ½  

LW, I liked WASH+6 ½ @BALT and wouldn’t you know it, WASH lost 30-23. But I like the fact that WASH did not turn the ball over. I said that this was a show me game for WASH and they showed that they were no pushover. However, they couldn’t stop BALT RB Derrick Henry but, who can? WASH was chasing BALT all game and to only lose by 7pts shows how much this team has improved with QB Jayden Daniels & HC Dan Quinn. When BALT gets rolling, no one can stop them but, BALT gives up points in the 4^th qtr which they did. WASH scored 10pts in the 4^th qtr but got no closer. There is a bright future here in WASH. LW, I liked ATL-5 ½ @CAR because CAR just plain stinks. But they gave ATL a dogfight for almost 3qtrs and then ATL just pounded the ball down CAR’s throats. I thought there may be a little letdown for ATL’s QB Kirk Cousins after his 509yds vs TB and there was but, not enough of a letdown to lose control of the game. The score was ATL 25-20 when ATL scored 3straight times with 2fgs & 1td aided by a CAR INT to win the game 38-20. Bad teams find a way to lose. I give CAR QB Andy Dalton a lot of credit because the DEF can’t stop anyone and he is almost always playing in a trailing & catchup situation. CAR RB Chubba Hubbard is a bright spot who gives Dalton less pressure with a running game that puts opposing DEFs on notice. He has a lot in the tank and gives a 100%. Opposing DEF cannot take him for granted as he is tough to stop. Dalton was sacked in this game but the 2INTs by him were killers in the 2^nd half. L10 CAR vs WASH, CAR 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS. CAR 9-7-1 ATS after ATL. CAR 9-13-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CAR 35-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 41-27 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 15-19 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 11-14 ATS AWAY off div gm. CAR 13-10-1 ATS off div gm vs .500>opp. CAR 3-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 6-20 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 2-9 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses. CAR 1-7 ATS L8 vs NFC EAST. WASH 7-14 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. WASH 33-35 ATS @HOMe in OCT. WASH 25-23 ATS as a FAV in OCT. WASH 9-13 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs non-div. WASH 4-9 AST as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 2-8 ATS as a FAV >1pt vs NFC SOUTH. WASH 0-12 ATS @HOME vs .250<conf opp. CAR can’t stop anyone. CAR #29 TOT DEF w/#23 PASS DEF & #30 RUSH DEF. But WASH cannot take this team for granted. Anyone can beat anyone on game day. WASH cannot have a letdown here just because they are playing CAR who is pretty bad. CAR RB Chubba Hubbard is having a good year despite being on a very bad team. Hubbard gives CAR QB Andy Dalton other options even if there aren’t that many. Teams need to focus on Hubbard because he can break one for a td at any moment. Last week’s game vs ATL was a dogfight until the ATL OFF just pounded CAR with a lot of runs and scored 2fgs & 1td. WASH needs to run the ball right over CAR. CAR can’t stop anyone and WASH needs to establish the run here to open up the passing lanes. WASH couldn’t get their run game going vs BALT because they kept chasing BALT but they can’t make mistakes vs CAR. This should be a tune up game for WASH as long as they don’t beat themselves with missed opportunities, sloppy DEF & turnovers. Take WASH here because WASH is on a bounceback and this game looks like a blowout. If WASH had beaten BALT, I would say that there might be a little bit of a letdown here but because they are off the loss, they are on the bounceback and need to get refocused.   

THE PICK: WASH-7 ½

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0), (3-1-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-0-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                     KC+1 ½

Before their bye, KC was a FAV-5 ½ @NO. With RB Kareem Hunt, 102yds rushing & NO in a nose dive, who is stopping KC? NO QB Derek Carr started out with an INT and KC answered with a td and the KC DEF did the rest. KC knocked NO QB Derek Carr out of the game and his replacement, Jake Haener wasn’t much effective. The NO running game was also stopped cold for 46yds and KC never trailed in this game winning 26-13. Also, KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has filled in nicely for the injured Rashee Rice & Hollywood Brown. Ah, the rich get richer. KC QB Pat Mahomes didn’t throw a td pass in this game but spread the ball around to 8different receivers in the win. On TNF, I had no doubt that SF-3 was beating SEA, @SEA. SF could not afford to go to 2-4 and after the 2^nd loss this season after leading by double digits, the bleeding had to stop. SEA never had a chance from the outset. SF had a 23-3 3^rd qtr lead then got a little careless and the score was now SF 23-17. But, SF didn’t lose focus and scored 2more tds to make the final score SF 36-24. SF didn’t turn the ball over & SF QB Brock Purdy was sacked 0x. SEA QB Geno Smith threw 2INTs which SF turned into 10pts. L7 KC vs SF(incl SBs), KC 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. KC 10-12 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. KC 31-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 23-26-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. KC 14-6 ATS L20 vs NFC WEST. KC 10-9 ATS before LV. SF 8-8 ATS after SEA. SF 9-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SF 48-36-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 33-39-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 10-16 ATS w/rest(Thrs, bye). SF 8-2 ATS w/non-div revenge vs >.400opp. SF 7-5 ATS off div ROAD win. SF 6-3 ATS @HOME after SU div ROAD win. SF 10-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666> non-div opp. SF 10-2 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV vs .666>opp. SF 4-0 ATS L4 after TNF. This is SF HC Kyle Shanahan’s Achilles heel. Including the Superbowls, Shanahan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS vs KC. He has not found a way to beat QB Pat Mahomes & CO. In these games he has reverted back to a rookie HC that hasn’t coached any games. He has made decisions that are suspect. Maybe the moment gets to him? By the way, Mahomes has taken a Bradyesque approach to the games. He takes it personally when KC is listed as a DOG. He does not like that and he almost plays a level better, if that’s possible. He has had 2weeks to prepare for this game because KC is coming off their bye. However, KC not the greatest off their bye. KC 7-10 ATS since 2007 after their bye. SF is coming off the TNF game so they have had a chance to rest but not as much. With Kareem Hunt in the backfield and up to speed, it gives a new weapon that opposing DEFs have to worry about. SF #2 TOT OFF vs KC #9 TOT DEF incl #5 RUSH DEF. This means that SF will have no run game and resort to trick plays to get yardage. This also means that it will al be on Purdy’s shoulders. Purdy needs a good run game to take pressure off of him. In the game vs SEA, SF rushed for 228yds and Purdy was able to sit back in the pocket with almost no pressure and pick apart the SEA secondary. That will not happen this week as the rushing lanes for SF will be closed. By the way, still no Christian McCaffrey for SF. Mahomes will spread the ball around like he normally dies and get SF to make some mistakes. This will be a good game and I see KC winning by a fg.   

THE PICK: KC+1 ½

Sunday October 20^th, 2024 8:20pm

New York Jets (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                     PITT+2

LW, NYJ on MNF had plenty of chances to win the game but blew it. Two missed fgs, a passing td called back for a holding call & WR Mike Williams slipping down and then the ball being intercepted and BUFF walks away with a 23-20 win. I liked NYJ+2 ½ because of the bump a team gets when a new HC steps in. Jeff Ulbrich is the new HC for NYJ and he was the DC. But in the end NYJ couldn’t stop the BUFF run game who rushed for 149ys & 1td on 33carries. Plus, NYJ DEF created 0turnovers. LW, PITT @LV was like MEN vs boys. In the 1^st half PITT struggled but, in the 2^nd half, they exploded for 20pts and ended up routing LV 32-13. It was 29-7 late in the 4^th qtr when LV scored a td to make it 29-13. But it was over as PITT QB Justin Fields rushed for 59 & 2tds on 11carries and threw for 145yds. PITT didn’t turn the ball over and LV had 3turnovers & a blocked punt that PITT turned into 17pts. LV is a bad football team and now they are without WR Davante Adams. It was team effort by PITT on both sides of the ball. L9 NYJ vs PPITT, NYJ 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS. NYJ 6-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV on SNF. NYJ 1-16 ATS after BUFF. NYJ 5-16-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 31-33-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 26-23-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYJ 3-10-2 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 7-2-1 ATS as a FAV >1pt vs AFC NORTH. NYJ 10-20 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 2-12 ATS AWAY off SU div loss vs non-div opp. PITT 13-7-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. PITT 15-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PITT 9-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. PITT 10-14 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. PITT 42-23-1 ATS @HOMe in OCT. PITT 31-14-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 18-23-1 ATS vs AFC EAST. PITT 11-22 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT is actually considering going ahead and starting QB Russell Wilson instead of Justin Fields. I think that is a big mistake because Wilson is done and surely will be rusty in this game. Plus, Fields may not be great but, he has improved over his seasons in CHI and he is winning for PITT. He did it all last week in the win @LV. NYJ will be looking to get a big game from newly acquired WR Davante Adams and others for that first win for HC Jeff Ulbrich. NYJ should have gotten it last week but as usual, they didn’t. Right now NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers talks big but his numbers say otherwise. He has 9td, 5INTs has been sacked 16x and has 2fumbles. In some of his best years Rodgers had 5INTs the whole season. Father time has caught up to him like everyone else. The NYJ need this win more than PITT because it is a morale victory. One problem for the NYJ is, who is stopping DE TJ Watt? The guy is literally everywhere on the field and if NYJ do not neutralize him, he will wreck havoc on their game plan. Overall, I think the addition of WR Adams for NYJ will put them over the top for this game and then they can fall back down to Earth in a couple of weeks vs HOU. I like the NYJ BIG in this game because Rodgers with an invigorated O-LINE will get the time to dissect a vulnerable PITT secondary.

THE PICK: NYJ-2

Monday October 21^st, 2024 8:15pm

Baltimore Ravens (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS              TB+3 ½  

LW, I liked WASH+6 ½ @BALT. Wouldn’t you know it, BALT won by 7pts. BALT gave up 10pts in the 4^th qtr as they did have a 27-13 lead going into the 4^th qtr. But BALT RB Derrick Henry continues to show why he is taking this team to a higher level as he rushed for 132yds & 2tds on 24carries. He gives BALT QB Lamar Jackson a sense of not having to do everything on OFF. BALT ended up winning 30-23 but WASH gave it a run. LW, I liked TB -3 ½ @NO because NO was starting a rookie QB & TE Taysom Hill was out too. TB took a 17-0 lead in the 1^st qtr and it looked like smooth sailing but, NO scored 27pts in the 2^nd qtr while TB scored a td and at the half it was NO 27-24. It looked like NO might go on a run but TB made some adjustments and stopped NO cold and ended up scoring 27pts of their own including some points on a couple of NO turnovers and TB won 51-27. TB QB Baker Mayfield threw 4tds while also throwing 3INTs. TB rushed for 277yds and had almost 600yds of off. TB didn’t panic and took care of business. L5 BALT vs TB, BALT 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS. L6 BALT @TB, BALT 5-1 ATS. BALT 6-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BALT 4-7 ATS AWAY on MNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 10-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. BALT 34-36-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 33-40-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 20-20-1 ATS L41 vs NFC. BALT 11-4 ATS before CLEV. BALT 5-4 ATS as a FAV <4pts in 1^st of BB RGs. TB 9-13-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. TB 9-10 ATS after NO. TB 6-10-1 ATS before ATL. TB 5-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs vs non-div. TB 26-40-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 20-34-4 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 12-6-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SUATS win. TB 9-5 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs >.500opp. TB 11-18-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 10-4 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SU win. TB 1-6 ATS L7 @HOME vs .666>opp. The reason why I like BALT in this game is BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs TB #11 RUSH DEF. TB has played some crazy games and no doubt TB QB Baker Mayfield is lighting it up but when they lose, as in their two losses to DEN & ATL, you have to scratch your head. Their wins consist of week 1 vs WASH, Rookie QB in 1^st game. Then @DET, this was revenge game, I had it picked. The game vs PHILLY was a collapse by PHILLY even though it was revenge game for them. Then NO beat themselves in the 2^nd half. You could make the case either way that they could be 5-1 or 3-3 depending on how you look at it. But this game will be a real test. As I said, the BALT secondary is suspect and they gave up a lot last week vs WASH. But with the spread only BALT-3 ½ and RB Derrick Henry in full speed, it will be tough to beat this team unless your team is KC. TB has a great record as a HOME DOG on MNF, TB 8-2 ATS as HOME DOG on MNF, but this is BALT. I like BALT here as TB will lose a heartbreaker by 7pts.

THE PICK: BALT-3 ½  

Monday October 21^st, 2024 8:45pm

Los Angeles Chargers (3-2), (3-1-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME (1-2) ATS                 ARZ+2 ½

LW, LAC bolted out to a 23-0 lead @DEN and coasted for a 23-16 win. LAC had a 20-0 lead at the half due to miscues by DEN & the inability to get anything going and LAC getting into the endzone and putting up points either from both fgs & tds. DEN mounted a comeback in the 4^th qtr but it was too little too late and LAC hung on. For ARZ last week, it was just the opposite. GB stormed out to a 24-0 lead and the game was never in doubt. ARZ got as close as 24-13 before losing 34-13. ARZ had 3fumbles but they all happened when GB already was leading 31-13. The DEF for ARZ was the culprit as they couldn’t stop GB Jordan Love from tearing up the ARZ secondary. He threw for 4tds and was sacked 0x. While GB also rushed for 179yds on 38 carries. The ARZ DEF was mighty busy chasing down GB. L5 LAC vs ARZ, LAC 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. LAC 13-16-3 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 5-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. LAC 11-9-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAC 3-8-1 ATS as a FAV >2pts in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAC 32-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 36-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 8-8 ATS after DEN. ARZ 2-10 ATS on MNF. ARZ 18-19-1 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 41-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 39-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. ARZ 19-9 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 11-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >2pts vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 18-5 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SUATS win. ARZ 22-12 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ WR Marvin Harrison is still in concussion protocol and WR Zay Jones is coming back from a hamstring. So right there the receiving corps for ARZ are iffy. LAC LB Joey Bosa is questionable for this game after sitting out the last game. LAC LB Khalil Mack is much more effective with Bosa in there because w/o him, he gets double teamed. LAC #10 RUSH OFF vs ARZ #29 RUSH DEF. I’m sure that LAC HC Jim Harbaugh has taken notice of this and plans on having RB JK Dobbins and whoever just keep running the football until the ARZ DEF gets tired and it opens up the secondary for LAC QB Justin Herbert to drop in passes. Also, LAC HC Harbaugh will be smart enough to apply a spotter who will be there to make sure that ARZ QB Kyler Murray doesn’t take off like he did vs SF. Murray ran for a measly 14yds LW vs GB as opposed to 83yds vs SF two weeks ago. ARZ showed their weaknesses @GB and LAC should exploit them again this week. ARZ #22 PASS DEF, doesn’t have a good PASS DEF and Herbert should just take his time and take what the ARZ DEF gives him. LAC should win easily & I like LAC on the ROAD laying less than a fg.

THE PICK: LAC-2 ½