2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 6 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Bye: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Thursday October 12^th, 2023 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (1-4), (0-5) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                               DEN+10 ½

DEN QB Russell Wilson has become unreliable and has not shown anything in his time in DEN. He is playing like a bad rookie and DEN is stuck with him. There was no way DEN was winning last week because of the Sean Payton-Nathaniel Hackett words unless, NYJ QB Zach Wilson just gave the game to DEN. He almost did but the DEF for NYJ made Wilson pay and sealed the deal with a strip sack fumb and return for a td that sealed the victory for NYJ, 31-21. Last week, KC had a nice lead 27-13 and held on for the 27-20 win. I figured KC would win by a td but the run game for KC has to get better. If the run game for KC gets better then, KC QB Pat Mahomes becomes even more dangerous. L16 DEN @KC, DEN 7-9 SU & 10-6 ATS. L29 DEN vs KC, ROAD 17-12 ATS. L32 DEN vs KC, DOG 20-12 ATS. L15 KC vs DEN, KC 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS. DEN 11-5 ATS on TNF. DEN 5-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. DEN 28-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 29-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. DEN 22-20 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 17-15-1 ATS L33 div RGs. DEN 6-7-1 ATS as a div DOG >1pt off DD SU loss. DEN 9-4 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts vs conf opp. DEN 10-7-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 6-7 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs conf opp. KC 8-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. KC 11-10 ATS on TNF. KC 911 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. KC 26-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. KC 27-18 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 26-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 2-11 ATS L13 after a non-conf ROAD gm. KC 10-5 ATS before LAC. KC 6-17 as a div HOME FAV vs <.500 opp. KC 4-10 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400 opp. DEN is a mess and their only victory has been a comeback win @CHI. This is nothing to be proud of but DEN HC Sean Payton is overrated as I always said and he has been a given a bad team that he can’t find answers to. KC is winning but not beating the hell out of teams. DEN gave up an astounding 234 yds rushing to NYJ last week. DEN #32 RUSH DEF. KC needs to run all over DEN and throw in some passes to keep the DEN DEF guessing. Plus, Wilson has become a liability and should have at least 2turnovers in this game. The only games that Wilson has not had a turnover in was @CHI and vs LV, two crap teams. By the way, L15 KC vs DEN, KC 15-0 SU & 9-6 ATS. This game has the makings of a blowout even on TNF. Lay the points.  

THE PICK: KC-10 ½  

Sunday October 15^th, 2023 9:30am

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) , (3-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS  (London, England)              TENN+3 ½

Will the real TENN football team please stand up? From week to week, you don’t know which TENN team will show up. Just when you think that TENN is going to have a good game, they disappoint. Just when you think RB Derrick Henry will have a big game, he doesn’t. Henry has had 1gm over 100yds rushing and that was wk4 vs CINNCY, that’s it. TENN had their chances last week at INDY but blew it. Suspect play calling has a lot to do with it. LW @PITT, the game was a combination of PITT being pumped & making some great plays while BALT just didn’t step up their game and faltered. BALT QB Lamar Jackson threw an INT that had no shot at being caught by BALT WR Odell Beckham in the end zone. Also, the BALT secondary got beat again in a crucial spot for a td. BALT lost 17-10. There were mistakes made by BALT that you don’t normally see. L8, BALT vs TENN, TENN 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS. BALT 19-14-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 32-35-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 29-39-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 8-14 ATS L22 vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 7-0 ATS L7 AWAY off SU FAV loss. TENN 16-9 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. TENN 8-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. TENN 37-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 35-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. The TENN run game has become unreliable. Maybe it’s a combination of the TENN O-LINE and the fact that teams know when Henry will get the ball. This week they face a BALT team on a bounceback and a very good unit vs the run. BALT#7 RUSH DEF. BALT is a better team then TENN. Jackson is better than TENN QB Ryan Tannehill who seems to have become immobile and back to making mistakes that I thought were behind him. Also, Jackson is a student of the game and learns from his mistakes. He will have a better game this week. BALT should win by at least a td.

THE PICK: BALT-3 ½

Sunday October 15^th, 2023 1:00pm

Washington Commanders (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS          WASH+2 ½  

LW, ATL beat HOU on a last second fg. Two of ATL’s wins were by 2pts or less. Plus, they were vs teams that will probably NOT make the playoffs but, ATL is playing competitive. ATL QB Desmond Ridder was lighting it up vs HOU but it was HOU and ATL still needed that fg to win. WASH was lit up @CHI on TNF, 40-20. The DEF for WASH came out lethargic and CHI scored on all their possessions in the first half. CHI stormed out to a 27-3 halftime lead and it was over there. L8 WASH vs ATL, WASH 2-6 SU & 4-4 ATS. WASH 13-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. WASH 30-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 36-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 15-11-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 12-4 ATS L16 off SU FAV loss. WASH 5-15 ATS w/rest. WASH 13-8 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 12-18 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 0-4 ATS L4 w/rest off HOME gm. ATL 5-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. ATL 30-36 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 23-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 9-10 ATS before TB. ATL 0-9-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. ATL 2-11 ATS L13 @HOME off SUATS FAV win. WASH is on a bounceback after losing @CHI. Forget about the two previous games where they were destroyed by BUFF and should have beaten PHILLY but still lost. The game vs CHI was winnable but CHI was desperate. Well, WASH is desperate here and has to show something. ATL has been playing decent @HOME with two close wins and a romp vs CAR. WASH is better than HOU & CAR but probably in the same class as GB. WASH has playmakers and if ATL isn’t careful, WASH can make things happen on DEF and turn this game around. That’s what I am counting on as WASH should win this game outright after a big blowout loss. Last season WASH beat ATL 19-13 in wk 12 @WASH but ATL had Marcus Mariota as their QB & WASH had Taylor Heinicke as their QB so revenge is really not a factor here except maybe between the HCs, ha ha. The game has the potential to be a shootout. But I still like WASH here.  

THE PICK: WASH+2 ½

Minnesota Vikings (1-4), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Chicago Bears (1-4), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                 CHI+2 ½

On TNF, CHI took it to WASH @WASH, 40-20. I liked CHI w/the points because I felt that CHI was desperate and needed to play this game close or even win. I still thought WASH would eek out a win. WASH was clobbered but I made the right choice but for a different reason. Why can’t CHI QB Justin Fields play like this every game? KC was toying with MINN. At halftime KC made adjustments and came out with 2tds in the 3^rd qtr to make the score KC 27-13. Then they let their DEF do their job. MINN played catchup to no avail losing 27-20. MINN has certainly declined since last season. L16 MINN @CHI, MINN 6-10 SU & 6-9 ATS 1NL. L32 MINN vs CHI, HOME 17-13-1 ATS 1NL. L16 MINN vs CHI, FAV 10-4-1 ATS 1NL. MINN 21-8 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 33-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 39-33-1 ATS as a AFV in OCT. MINN 21-27-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. MINN 1-6 ATS L7 vs .350<opp w/revenge. CHI 17-18 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. CHI 7-10-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CHI 24-37-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 25-13-3 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. CHI 38-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 7-14-1 ATS 1NL w/rest. MINN is hurting and WR Justin Jefferson is out for at least four games. He’s big target for Cousins and Cousins becomes predictable at times. Can CHI build off of their win vs WASH? They can but, need to play mistake free football. CHI QB Justin Fields needs to stay focused and lay smart as he did vs WASH. CHI cannot let MINN get going in the run game but in turn they need to get their run game established and keep the MINN DEF off balance. CHI needs to use their run game as much as possible so that Fields can drop passes in between the MINN DEF. MINN is coming off the loss but they are really not that good. Both teams are decent vs the run. CHI#12 RUN DEF & MINN #13 RUN DEF. Who will blink on DEF? Can CHI make it two in a row? I think so. Also, MINN has beaten CHI five out of the last six and four in a row so, CHI may be motivated to turn the tide.

THE PICK: CHI+2 ½

Seattle Seahawks (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                            SEA+3

SEA is coming off a bye but before that they destroyed NYG on MNF, 24-3 @NYG. It wasn’t even close as the SEA DEF sacked NYG QB Daniel Jones 10x, intercepted him 2x and stripped him 1x. The fact that the disastrous O-LINE for NYG helped in the game for SEA is an understatement. But also, SEA scored points on opportunities given to them and that gave SEA the win. CINNCY is coming off a nice win @ARZ. But, it was back and forth for a while and the game could have gone either way. ARZ doesn’t have the personnel to compete and CINNCY beat them 34-20. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow looked good but the CINNCY DEF gave up 142yds rushing to ARZ. SEA 6-9-1 ATS since 2007 off their bye. L4 SEA vs CINNCY, CINNCY 2-2 SU &3-0-1 ATS. SEA 33-38-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. SEA 32-34-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 7-11 ATS before ARZ. SEA 3-8-2 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG <5pts. SEA 5-10-1 as a non-conf ROAD DOG <7pts. CINNCY 9-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. 24-35-3 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 24-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 23-7 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 13-3 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 13-1 as a non-div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 9-2 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 7-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. SEA needs to run the ball a lot in this game and run effectively. CINNCY #31 RUN DEF. If SEA can run heavy in this game, it will take a lot of pressure off of SEA QB Geno Smith and he can pick apart the CINNCY secondary. I’m counting on SEA HC Pete Carroll being prepared and looking to keep Burrow off the field. SEA can’t make mistakes in this game and expect to win. CINNCY is tough as long as Burrrow is healthy and has time in the pocket but right now SEA is a better team and should come away with a victory here. Take SEA and the points.

THE PICK: SEA+3

San Francisco 49ers (5-0), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                      CLEV+5

What can you say about SF? They were dominant on both sides of the ball vs DAL on SNF. To beat a team by 32 pts, 42-10, & to do it in the fashion they did, they are certainly on a mission. SF looked superior and QB Brock Purdy looks very comfortable in the position. It doesn’t hurt that SF ran the ball for 170yds and 2tds. They are a complete team. CLEV is coming off a bye. Before that they lost big @HOME vs BALT. But, in their defense QB Deshaun Watson was out with a shoulder injury. He is currently questionable this week vs SF with the same throwing shoulder injury. L4 SF vs CLEV, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. SF 13-11 ATS L24 as a ROAD FAV. SF 17-9-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. SF 27-42 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 47-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 7-2 ATS L9 after allowing 10<pts. CLEV 6-9-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. CLEV 14-19-1 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 26-20-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CLEV 30-38-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 16-21-1 ATS L38 vs NFC. Usually, there is a little bit of a letdown after a team scores a lot of points. But with SF they have so far scored a minimum of 30 points per game and have not showed any deficiencies in their game. The only reason they didn’t cover vs LAR is because LAR decided to kick a fg with :04 left and no chance of winning, a backdoor cover. Both of these teams run well and CLEV RB Jerome Ford is making his case to pick up the slack for injured RB Nick Chubb. But it will be an uphill battle this week for CLEV no matter who is the QB. It may be a closer game with Watson in there but I wouldn’t risk the future if his shoulder is still hurting. Lay the points here as SF continues to roll.  

THE PICK: SF-5 

Carolina Panthers (0-5), (0-4-1) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                       CAR+13 ½

LW, CAR went to DET and lost 42-24. It wasn’t even that close as CAR scored 2dummy tds in the 4^th on catchup mode to way no avail. DET poured it on as their DEF made some plays as well to give the DET OFF some extra plays. LW, MIA @HOME was toying with NYG. Except for a PICK6 thrown by Tua Tagovailoa, it was all MIA, 31-16. The DEF for MIA didn’t let NYG OFF get in the endzone and they sacked NYG QBs 7x.  When MIA wants to and they need to stay ahead of BUFF, their OFF can’t be stopped. MIA @HOME is a tough call and CAR will have their hands full. L5 CAR vs MIA, MIA 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. CAR 7-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. CAR 11-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CAR 35-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 40-24 ATS as a DOG in CAR. 13-16 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 2-8 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 4-16 ATS off BB SU losses vs .666>opp. CAR 14-2-1 ATS L17 off conf ROAD loss. MIA 9-7-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB HGs. MIA 29-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MIA 30-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 1-8 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV >4pts. MIA 6-0 ATS as a HOME FAV off DD SU win. MIA 8-1 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500 opp. This game has blowout written all over it even though MIA RB De’Von Achane is out for a few games. MIA has RBs that are capable of putting the pressure on opposing DEFs so that the QB Tua Tagovailoa can have his way with the opposing secondary. CAR is a young team and they are going through the learning process. CAR has a tough schedule with them facing a lot of teams that are good and teams that are moving upward so that plays against them. MIA #1 RUN OFF vs CAR #26 RUN DEF. Lay the points here as MIA should roll as long as they do not turn the ball over.

THE PICK: MIA-13 ½  

Indianapolis Colts (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                       INDY+4

INDY QB Anthony Anderson was injured again and it is his throwing shoulder. You cannot take too many chances in the NFL as a running QB. This is not college. Again, INDY QB Garner Minshew came in and saved the day for INDY. It didn’t hurt that TENN made some blunders to help INDY win the game 23-16. LW, JAGS played tough vs BUFF in London. If you only saw that game, you would think that the JAGS were on their way to the SuperBowl and BUFF was going nowhere. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence has certainly improved his game and is making less mistakes. However, he is due for a bad game, it’s just natural that they occur. L16 INDY @ JAGS, INDY 6-10 SU & 6-10 ATS. L33 JAGS vs INDY, ROAD 16-15-2 ATS. L28 INDY vs JAGS, FAV 14-11-2 ATS 1PICK. L22 JAGS vs INDY, JAGS 12-8-2 ATS. INDY 20-28-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 33-30-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 29-31-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 7-7-1 ATS after TENN. INDY 5-7 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 3>pts w/revenge. INDY 6-8 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG w/revenge. JAGS 7-2 ATS before TNF. JAGS 14-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 19-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. JAGS 17-29 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. JAGS 9-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 8-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp w/revenge. JAGS 7-11 ATS L18 off SU DOG win. JAGS 5-16 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400>opp. Looks like INDY QB Anthony Anderson will be out for this game. How much would INDY QB Gardner Minshew like to win this game? Minshew is more of a pocket QB and has learned a lot as a backup. He is capable of winning a few games and this game is winnable. INDY stopped TENN RB Derrick Henry from going wild. Now they have to stop JAGS RB Travis Etienne from doing the same. The DEF for INDY should be watching film on him and from their games last season. But, Etienne was just getting started on a fine season. These are two scrappy teams coming off some nice wins and I think this game will come down to the wire. Also, turnovers will loom large in this game. I like INDY+4 here because I don’t see either team running away with it and it being close. There is also a revenge factor for the JAGS beating INDY @INDY in week 1. Sweeps are very tough in the NFL and there is a certain personal effect that players have vs teams in their own division.   

THE PICK: INDY+4

New Orleans Saints (3-2), (2-2-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-0-1) ATS @ Houston Texans (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                    HOU+1 ½  

LW, NO destroyed NE @ NE, 34-0. The DEF for NO scored 17pts off 2INTS & 1fumb by NE. The DEF played a big part and gave NE QB Mac Jones no time to get comfortable in the pocket. HOU has been playing tough and their two wins have been impressive, @JAGS & vs PITT. LW, they barely lost @ATL. HOU QB CJ Stroud has yet to throw an INT and is playing well despite a very young team and some injuries around him. L4 NO vs HOU, HOU 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. NO 15-6 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NO 35-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 39-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 18-13-1 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. NO 14-6 ATS L20 off SU DOG win. NO 1-5 ATS AWAY off DD SU win vs <.500 non-div opp. NO 3-8 ATS off DD SU win vs<.500 non-div opp. HOU 14-18 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. HOU 11-4-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye week. HOU 19-23-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. HOU 19-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 2-13 ATS L15 as a non-conf DOG 13<pts. NO is definitely more talented on paper than HOU. NO RB Alvin Kamara looks like he is back to form and should have a better game this week. NO needs to get Taysom Hill more involved to keep any DEF guessing. Even if he is there as a decoy, he gets coverage. NO has been a little sporadic so far but needs to be a little more consistent. The DEF for NO gets complacent but, NO #8 RUN DEF so it will all be on Stroud to get the job done. This is a tougher DEF than Stroud has faced except for PITT but I see possible INTS in this game. NO should play balanced and they will get the win. This is almost a PICK’EM game but I like NO here.

THE PICK: NO-1 ½ 

Sunday October 15^th, 2023 4:00pm

New England Patriots (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS             NE+3

LW, NE was a total loss @HOME vs NO, 34-0. Everything that could go wrong went wrong. NE QB Mac Jones had 2INTS & 1 lost fumb that were turned into 17pts by NO. Back to back blowout losses for NE is not the NE way, at least for HC Bill Belichick. On MNF, LV was lucky to get away with win @HOME vs GB, 17-13. This game could have certainly gone the other way, and I am not impressed by LV one bit. L7 NE vs LV, NE 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. NE 26-17 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 40-23-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 13-1 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 16-8-1 ATS L25 vs AFC WEST. NE 16-12-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 8-9-1 ATS before BUFF. LV 5-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LV 29-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 21-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LV 6-2 ATS L8 @HOME vs AFC EAST. LV 8-10 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win. LV 0-16 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. NE is desperate for a win. They need something to show that they are still competitive. Is Mac Jones the answer? According to HC Bill Belichick, he is. From the outside he doesn’t look like the answer. LV doesn’t look that great either. They barely beat GB on MNF and the LV DEF doesn’t look like they could cover a QB with talent. Where does that leave Mac Jones? Jones better have a good game here or otherwise he is toast. This is a revenge game for last year’s debacle where NE lost on the last play with an inadvertent lateral to a waiting DE Chandler Jones who caught it and ran happily into the endzone for a td and an LV win. NE should play that video all week. This game could go either way but, the desperation for NE to get something is here.    

THE PICK: NE+3

Arizona Cardinals (1-4), (3-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (1-1) ATS                          ARZ+6 ½

LAR thought they had a shot @HOME vs PHILLY. They were mistaken. PHILLY toyed with LAR and could have actually scored 40points but at times let up and did enough to keep the ball away from the LAR OFF. Yes, the score was PHILLY 17-14 at the half but the PHILLY DEF stepped it up in the 2^nd half and did not let LAR even get near a shot for even a fg. PHILLY won 23-14. LAR has talent but not enough to beat a team like PHILLY. ARZ was going toe-to-toe with CINNCY last week until ARZ QB Joshua Dobbs threw a PICK6 and ARZ was playing catchup the whole game to no avail. ARZ lost 34-20. Dobbs had 2INTS & 1lost fumb that led to 10pts for CINNCY. L16 ARZ @LAR, ARZ 11-5 SU & 9-7 ATS. L26 ARZ vs LAR, LAR 15-11 ATS. L24 ARZ vs LAR, ROAD 16-8 ATS. L14 ARZ vs LAR, LAR 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS. ARZ 10-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ARZ 24-35 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 39-44 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 21-25 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ 18-3 ATS after BB SUATS losses. ARZ 21-10 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 10-1 ATS as a DOG >4pts vs <.500 opp. LAR 10-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LAR 22-25 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. LAR 32-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 31-21 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 10-4 ATS L14 as a FAV 13<pts off an SU loss. LAR 13-4 ATS L17 vs <.333 opp. Both of these teams are coming off losses with ARZ coming off 2 big losses. ARZ is on a double bounceback but has had some success playing @LAR. After ARZ RB James Connor went out with an injury that will probably sideline him for a few weeks at the least, ARZ still had a running game but was playing catchup. Both of these teams are not that great vs the run. LAR #20 RUN DEF & ARZ #22 RUN DEF. So we may see a lot of running in this game. However, I’m leaning LAR because on paper they are a better team and they didn’t get beat badly by PHILLY. Yet, LAR still has something to prove. ARZ is bad and Dobbs is a perennial backup even though I like his spirit. But, lay the points here.

THE PICK: LAR-6 ½

Philadelphia Eagles (5-0), (3-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ New York Jets (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS                               NYJ+7

LW, NYJ beat DEN @ DEN like I knew they would. I said the revenge factor was in play for OC Nathaniel Hackett and it was big factor for NYJ. But NYJ QB Zach Wilson didn’t get the memo and almost gave the game away. Fortunately, the DEF for NYJ stepped up and closed the door when the game was NYJ 24-21 and stripped sacked DEN QB Russell Wilson and returned it for a td and a 31-21 win. PHILLY did what they needed to do @LAR and that was win. They did, and they probably could have scored more points in a 23-14 win. At times it seemed like they toyed with LAR and they did. L5 PHILLY vs NYJ, PHILLY 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. PHILLY 15-20 ATS L35 asd a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 10-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 30-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 45-39 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 25-15 ATS L40 vs AFC. PHILLY 5-13 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 16-8 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 4-13 ATS as non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. PHILLY 4-13 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. NYJ 24-25-1 ATS L50 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 10-6 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NYJ 34-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 40-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 29-28 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 10-19 ATS L29 after scoring 25>pts. NYJ 9-0 ATS @HOME vs >.500 non-div opp. NYJ 0-8 ATS L8 as a HOE DOG after scoring 28>pts. In their history, NYJ have never beaten PHILLY in a regular season game. NYJ vs PHILLY, NYJ 0-13 SU. I know what you’re thinking, what does it matter now? Well it does because no one is expecting NYJ to even show up to this one so all the pressure is on PHILLY. NYJ has to come out strong like WASH did and keep the pressure on PHILLY from both sides of the ball. It’s not impossible. They need to shock the world but also keep themselves in striking distance which means less than a td. No one is picking NYJ, that’s why I like them here. Let’s see what kind of coaching job HC Robert Saleh can put together.  

THE PICK: NYJ+7

Detroit Lions (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                          TB+3

LW, DET did what they needed to do vs a rookie QB. They beat CAR 42-24 and it wasn’t that close. DET ran the ball effectively and found receivers when needed. The DET DEF didn’t give up much else. TB is coming off a bye and before that they took care of NO, @NO 26-9. TB QB Baker Mayfield & CO had a nice balance attack that kept the NO DEF guessing all game. But, the DET DEF is better than NO. L9 DET vs TB, DET 5-5 SU & 5-4 ATS 1NL. DET 7-5 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. DET 9-15-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DET 18-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 35-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 2-5 ATS off DD SU win vs .500> opp. DET 2-9 ATS as a FAV off DD Su win vs >.400 opp. DET 2-9 ATS L11 after scoring 40>pts. TB 8-7 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. TB 9-12-2 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. TB 8-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. TB 25-38-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 20-32-4 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 5-8-1 ATS before ATL. TB has been playing well given that no one even gave them a chance with QB Baker Mayfield calling the plays but here they are, 3-1. TB beat MINN & CHI, no big deal. They lost to PHILLY and then beat up on NO, @NO so that was a good win. But look at these numbers, DET #6 TOT OFF vs TB #11 TOT DEF & DET #6 TOT DEF vs TB #22 TOT OFF. DET is looking a lot better than they did last season with their only slip up vs SEA. Goff is looking good and making better decisions. DET was never an outdoors team but in their two games they are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS having beaten KC & handily GB. I like DET here to win by a td on the road of course unless they turn the ball over and give TB some easy chances. Mayfield hasn’t had a bad game yet so he’s due. DET needs to put pressure on him to make bad throws.

THE PICK: DET-3

Sunday October 15^th, 2023 8:20pm

New York Giants (1-4), (0-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                         NYG+14

The highlight for NYG @MIA last week was the 102yd INT return for a td by NYG Jason Pinnock which made the score MIA 14-10. But considering that was the only time that NYG found the endzone, NYG was lucky they only lost 31-16. MIA toyed with NYG and could have score more but didn’t embarrass them. BUFF took a shellshocking of a loss @London vs the JAGS, 25-20. But believe me, it wasn’t that close. BUFF couldn’t stop the JAGS run game for 196yds and 2tds and that was the difference in the game. L4 NYG vs BUFF, NYG 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. NYG 18-15 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NYG 16-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. NYG 9-10-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYG 7-9-2 ATS as a DOG in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYG 41-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 35-23 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 8-6 ATS before WASH. NYG 5-8 ATS as a non-conf DOG. NYG 13-11 ATS before div HOME gm. NYG 16-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 1-5 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. BUFF 6-3 ATS @HOME on SNF. BUFF 5-4 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BUFF 8-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 30-32-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 28-38-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 11-8 ATS before NE. NYG are in a sort of desperation mode here but, this is a tall order. NYG have show next t nothing in the last three games and guys have gone absent in doing the basics. The O-LINE has to get better immediately and the rest of the DEF has to show that they came to play. NYG QB Daniel Jones is hurting even though he says his neck is not bothering him. He has already been sacked 28x and that has got to hurt. NYG is bringing in guys to shore up the O-LINE but it’s not easy. Even if RB Saquon Barkley plays on SNF, he will not be at full capacity. It always takes at least one game to get back to full strength. BUFF has a lot of guys that are injured but if they put pressure up front, they will get Jones rattled and he will make mistakes. BUFF is coming off a bad loss and is looking for a bounceback win. Had BUFF won last week, their mind set may be different and NYG might have a chance but BUFF is looking to get back on track. This has blowout written all over it and NYG will be reeling afterwards. BUFF needs to stop the NYG run game and put it all on the shoulders of Daniel Jones. Even though this is a little bit of a reunion for NYG HC Brian Daboll, NYG will be running all night. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: BUFF-14

Monday October 16^th, 2023 8:15pm

Dallas Cowboys (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                           LAC+2 ½

LW, DAL was smashed on SNF, 42-10 @SF. Everything that could go wrong for DAL did on both sides of the ball. DAL QB Dak Prescott threw 3INTS which SF turned into 14pts. Plus, SF ran the ball for 170yds & 2tds on 41 carries. LAC is coming off a bye. Before their bye, they beat LV, 24-17. LAC almost blew it and LAC QB Justin Herbert broke his middle finger on his non-throwing hand which messed up his rhythm. LAC was leading 24-7 when LV made an unsuccessful comeback with a 2^nd string QB as Jimmy Garoppolo was out with a concussion. L5 DAL vs LAC, LAC 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. DAL 9-9 ATS as a RAOD FAV on MNF. DAL 20-13-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 8-8 ATS since 2007 the week before their bye. DAL 15-7-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. DAL 29-33-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 47-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 6-7-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. LAC 6-10 ATS since 2007 after their bye. LAC 19-27-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAC 32-27 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 5-2 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. LAC 7-1 ATS on MNF vs non-div opp. LAC 6-15-2 ATS before KC. LAC 11-2-1 ATS as a DOG >2pts vs NFC. DAL is desperate for a win and if they don’t get back on track, their season could be over. But who have they beaten? NYJ, NYG and NE, so what! DAL has to be able to beat better teams to have any shot at a deep run in the playoffs. The loss @ARZ exposed some weaknesses but on paper, DAL is a good team. LAC has a bad HC and he sometimes gets in the way of the team’s success. Also, LAC has a team of young talent that plays with vigor. DAL has to be able to stop the run game of LAC and put pressure on Herbert to win this game. LAC #5 TOT OFF vs DAL #5 TOT DEF. Maybe DAL owner Jerry Jones could talk to his team, ha ha. But I like DAL here on a bounceback blowout loss.

THE PICK: DAL-2 ½