2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 16
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 16 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday December 21st, 2023 8:15pm
New Orleans Saints (7-7), (5-8-1) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-3-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (7-7), (9-5) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (5-2) ATS NO+4
LW, LAR was up @HOME 28-7 vs WASH. Then the usual conservative LAR HC Sean McVay let WASH back in the game and before you knew it, the score was LAR 28-20. But LAR hung on. McVay goes soft when it comes time to putting away their opponents. That is why the final score of so many LAR wins look so close. LW, NO beat up NYG in so many ways. I got caught up in all the NYG “Joey Cutlets” hoopla and thought that they had a decent shot, DOG+5, to win or at least keep it close. But NO didn’t budge and they were all over NYG with the final score being NO 24-6. NO QB Derek Carr had a good game throwing 23/28 for 218yds, 3tds 0INTS. He shredded the NYG secondary and the NO DEF stopped the NYG OFF from getting started. L12 NO vs LAR, NO 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS, HOME 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS. NO 5-11-2 ATS on TNF. NO 3-7-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. NO 2-4 ATS on TNF vs opp w/revenge. NO 0-8-2 ATS on TNF vs non-div opp. NO 12-9-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NO 39-29-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NO 29-27-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 10-11 ATS L21 vs NFC WEST. NO 26-12 ATS L38 as a ROAD DOG. NO 4-5 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp w/revenge. NO 7-0 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp w/revenge off SU win. NO 6-11 ATS before TB. LAR 3-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. LAR 7-9 ATS on TNF. LAR 2-2 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. LAR 11-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. LAR 31-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 39-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 10-3-1 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 9-2 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs NFC SOUTH. LAR 2-13 ATS w/revenge vs .500> non-div opp. These two teams played in wk 11 @NO last season with NO winning 27-20. There may be a revenge factor at work for LAR here. Both teams still have something to play for and that is a wild card berth. NO @HOME beat up NYG, so what. A double so what as LAR @HOME beat WASH 28-20. The big thing that I do not like about LAR HC Sean McVay is that he has a bad habit of playing conservative when he feels that he has a comfortable lead. The LAR DEF starts to play loose and the OFF plays to kill the clock. He didn’t get the memo that you need to put your opponent away. This is what happened vs WASH. WASH almost came back in this game. It has happened before. The NO DEF has a bad habit of disappearing at times and that has cost them this season. Plus the fact that Carr gets happy feet and turns the ball over doesn’t help either. NO hasn’t beaten a winning team this season. Their wins are vs TENN, @CAR, @NE, @INDY, vs CHI, vs CAR & vs NYG. NO’s win vs INDY was when INDY was 3-4. LAR #8 TOT OFF vs #11 TOT DEF. LAR battled BALT pretty tough before losing in OT and they did beat CLEV but they have had losses to tough teams. Based on the fact that LAR is HOME and they have an OFF that is pretty potent, you have to favor them here. NO hasn’t shown a toughness to beat anyone decent. Lay the points here as LAR should win by a td.
THE PICK: LAR-4
Saturday December 23rd, 2023 4:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), (7-7) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (4-4) HOME, (4-4) ATS PITT+2
LW, PITT was up 13-0 @INDY and decided they had enough football. INDY hunkered down and scored 30 straight pts to end the game, 30-13. PITT QB Mitch Trubisky had 2INTS & RB Najee Harris had 1lost fumble that contributed to the INDY win. But the DEF for PITT was another problem as they gave up 3td passes and created 0turnovers. DE TJ Watt had 2 sacks in the loss. PITT QB Mason Rudolph came in late for mop up work in the loss. LW, CINNCY was down 17-3 in the 4th qtr @HOME to MINN but woke up and scored 3tds on three straight possessions to send the game into OT at 24. CINNCY QB Jake Browning had another good game but had an INT that led to a MINN fg. Browning didn’t fold and found receiver after receiver and was able to shred the stingy MINN DEF. Browning spread the ball around to 11different receivers. In OT, both teams exchanged possessions but CINNCY got it back a 2nd time and was able to kick a fg to win the game 27-24. It was a nice comeback win for CINNCY. L16 CINNCY @PITT, CINNCY 5-11 SU & 6-10 ATS. L33 CINNCY vs PITT, CINNCY 12-20-1 ATS. L26 CINNCY vs PITT, FAV 14-11-1 ATS. L23 CINNCY vs PITT, HOME FAV 11-10-1 ATS. L23 CINNCY vs PITT, CINNCY 7-16 SU & 10-13 ATS. CINNCY 15-7 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 4-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. CINNCY 11-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CINNCY 30-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 27-24-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. CINNCY 29-22 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CINNCY 11-6 ATS L17 as a conf ROAD FAV. CINNCY 13-3 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 8-9-1 ATS L18 off BB SU wins. CINNCY 2-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 12-7-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. PITT 45-32-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 29-27-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH in DEC. PITT 24-16 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PITT 23-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT 24-8 ATS as a DOG vs >.500 opp. PITT 8-1-1 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/revenge. PITT has a 3game losing streak and any hopes of getting into the playoffs are fading very fast. PITT’s schedule moving forward is not that easy after this game as they are @SEA & @BALT. There is a reason why Trubisky is a backup QB and he should be counting his blessings that he is even that much in the NFL. He is not leading PITT to the playoffs. Browning looks like a complete QB with confidence who can get the job done. As it turns out Mason Rudolph will be starting this game at QB for PITT. He finished up for Trubisky vs INDY throwing 2 of 3 passes for 3yds. He was also sacked 1x. Browning has been a pleasant surprise for CINNCY since Burrow went down. There is a BIG revenge factor for CINNCY here because in wk 12 @CINNCY, PITT beat CINNCY 16-10. That was the first game that Browning started for CINNCY and he probably had some butterflies. Also, Kenny Pickett was the QB for PITT and PITT was able to run well vs the CINNCY DEF. But moving forward you have to like CINNCY here. The only way PITT wins here is if CINNCY has a total meltdown.
THE PICK: CINNCY-2
Saturday December 23rd, 2023 8:00pm
Buffalo Bills (8-6), (6-7-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-9), (4-9-1) ATS, (2-5) HOME, (2-5) ATS LAC+10 ½
LW, BUFF @HOME looked like a team on a mission vs DAL. BUFF is in desperate mode after losing some games that in the past they would have won. But in this game vs DAL, BUFF was in command on both sides of the ball. The weather was wet but BUFF went run heavy and the DAL DEF couldn’t stop it. BUFF rushed for 266 yds & 3tds on 49 carries. DAL had no answer. JBUFF RB James Cook was the star as he rushed for 179yds & 1td on 25 of those carries. He also caught 2passes for 42yds & 1td. BUFF QB Josh Allen only threw 15x completing 7passes for 94yds, 1td & 0INTs. Allen also rushed for 24yds & 1td on 8carries. The score was BUFF 31-3 before DAL got a dummy td late to make the final score BUFF 31-10. On TNF, this was a game that LAC players and fans would like to forget. That game was @LV and it looked like a scrimmage for LV. LAC couldn’t do anything right with QB Easton Stick at the helm and LV couldn’t do anything wrong. The score was LV 42-0 at the half and at one point it was LV 63-7 before LAC got 2dummy tds to make the final score LV 63-21. Five of the five turnovers for LAC were turned into 35pts by LV. The next morning, LAC HC Brandon Staley who I said was “dead man walking” was fired along with the GM. Giff Smith who was the Outside linebackers coach has been named the interim HC for LAC. L8 BUFF vs LAC, BUFF 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS, HOME 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS. BUFF 14-18-1 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 44-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. BUFF 40-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 7-3 ATS of BB SUATS wins. BUFF 11-9 ATS before NE. BUFF 7-1 ATS vs conf opp w/rest. BUFF 7-1 ATS as a FAV vs AFC WEST. LAC 6-10-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. LAC 32-33 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 32-41-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAC 11-7-1 ATS before DEN. LAC 5-13 ATS after allowing 35>pts. LAC 2-9 ATS @HOME after allowing 235>pts. LAC 4-12 ATS off DD SU div ROAD loss. LAC 4-10 ATS as a HOME DOG >3pts vs opp off SUATS win. Currently, you have two teams going in opposite directions. Granted, LAC has some good players but they don’t play well as a team and that is a problem. LAC is banged up and have probably checked out on this season. Many of the stars for LAC are listed as questionable to return. There was so much promise to this team and now that’s a distant memory. LAC is 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6games and their only win was 6-0 @NE, pretty bad. On the other hand BUFF has awoken with a mission to not only get to the playoffs but go on a deep run. BUFF #4 TOT OFF w/#8 PASS OFF & #6 RUSH OFF vs LAC #29 TOT DEF w/#30 PASS DEF & #18 RUSH DEF. The LAC DEF gave up 5passing tds and 2rushing tds vs LV last week. The BUFF DEF made a lot of stops vs DAL last week, stopping them in crucial moments and not letting them get started. I see that as a continuation this week. BUFF will disguise their DEF so that LAC doesn’t know what’s coming as they did vs DAL. Plus, it would be a big disappointment for BUFF if they somehow didn’t make the playoffs. Lay the points here as BUFF should roll and LAC is just playing out the string.
THE PICK: BUFF-10 ½
Sunday December 24th, 2023 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (8-6), (9-5) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (6-8), (6-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS INDY+1
LW, INDY @HOME spotted PITT a 13-0 lead. Then they took care of business and scored 30straight pts to win the game 30-13. INDY didn’t panic when they were down 13-0 as most coaches would and they made adjustments on DEF so that PITT couldn’t get into the endzone. INDY QB Gardner Minshew had a decent game with 3tds, 0INTS & 0fumbles. The run game ran for 170yds on 34 carries which left the PITT DEF guessing. Plus, the INDY DEF had 2INTS & 1fumble recovery that led the rout. INDY didn’t panic and came back strong. It also helped that the QB for PITT was Mitch Trubisky who is not that good but, kudos to INDY for playing well. LW, ATL looked awful @CAR. There was rain for most of the game but ATL couldn’t get their OFF moving. ATL had a 7-3 lead going into the 4th qtr. An early 4th qtr fg by CAR made the game, ATL 7-6. But a late drive with an INT by ATL QB Desmond Ridder gave CAR one last shot. CAR drove 90yds and kicked a fg with :00 on the clock to win, 9-7. In this game, ATL couldn’t get their run game going but the ATL DEF gave up 129yds on 36carries to CAR. That was the difference in the game. Ridder looked very bad and had chances to win this game. It is a bad loss for ATL who are probably out of the NFC SOUTH playoff race. L4 INDY vs ATL, INDY 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. INDY 39-39-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 34-31-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. INDY 7-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 10-1 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. ATL 31-33-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. ATL 35-34-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 7-2 ATS L9 as a non-conf FAV. ATL 1-8-1 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off SU FAV loss. ATL 4-12 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 2-11-1 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 6-19-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. INDY has a lot to play for as they are in the thick of things in the AFC SOUTH, now that the JAGS have lost three straight games. JAGS have the tie breaker but right now INDY has momentum. INDY QB Gardner Minshew has led this team to 5wins in the last 6games and their schedule going forward is winnable. After @ATL, INDY plays vs LV & HOU. INDY #13 TOT OFF vs ATL #10 TOT DEF. ATL is going back to Taylor Heinicke as their QB and Ridder will be watching. This game is almost a PICK’EM but INDY has something to play for while ATL is only playing for jobs. INDY has played surprisingly well on the road while TAL has been a big disappointment. I like INDY here with the momentum. Look for INDY to establish their run game and try to eat up a lot of clock. INDY should win by a td.
THE PICK: INDY+1
Seattle Seahawks (7-7), (7-7) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-9), (6-8) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS TENN+2 ½
LW, TENN @HOME was up 13-3 vs a 3rd string QB & HOU. Then TENN self destructed and couldn’t do anything right. TENN was up 16-9 late in the game but they let HOU drive the length of the field and score a tying td and send it to OT. In OT TENN QB Will Levis injured his ankle and HOU managed a fg for a 19-16 OT win. What’s worse is that TENN RB Derrick Henry rushed 16x for 9yds in this game. That’s not a misprint. The O-LINE for TENN has become a liability. Oh and by the way, TENN QB Will Levis was sacked 7x. LW on MNF, SEA turned a possible 5 straight losing streak into a 1game winning streak. The game vs PHILLY was going a little back and forth and PHILLY just needed a 1st down to possibly end the game but they came out with suspect and predictable plays that gave SEA the ball back @their own 8yd line with 1:52 to play. SEA was trailing 17-14. Well, the PHILLY DEF went to sleep and SEA QB Drew Lock pulled some magic out of the Tom Brady handbook and led a drive that culminated with a beautiful td pass with :28 left in the game. It was over and PHILLY knew it. SEA saved their season with a 20-17 win. This even though SEA could not stop PHILLY’s run game for 178yds & 2td on 38 carries. L5 SEA vs TENN, SEA 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS. SEA 9-10-1 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. SEA 37-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 37-32 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 17-11 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. TENN 4-4 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. TENN 8-12-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TENN 38-40 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 29-32-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 2-6 ATS after HOU. TENN lost a game they should have won and SEA won a game they should have lost. SEA is still in the hunt for a wild card spot but, if they finish in a tie with LAR, they will not get in having lost 2x to LAR. TENN is just plain done this season and have a lot of questions moving forward. Who know if HC Mike Vrabel will be there next season? Who knows if RB Derrick Henry will be in TENN next season? TENN has a lot of holes to fill. Is Will Levis the QB of the future? He hurt his ankle last week in the OT vs HOU and did not return. Right now he is questionable but Ryan Tannehill will play if Levis is not available. TENN QBs have been sacked 50x this season and that is a problem. The O-LINE for TENN has gone considerably down in the past few years and needs to be addressed. TENN & SEA both have so-so PASS DEFs, TENN #22 & SEA #24. TENN is better vs the run, TENN #17, SEA #25. However, SEA has something big to play for and TENN does not. This is a big motivating factor for this game. TENN shouldn’t worry as SEA’s run game is not as prolific as HOU’s. LW, TENN was up 13-3 and lost which is pathetic against a 3rd string QB. SEA was down vs a better team but not out and turned a 2minute drill into a miracle. Lock pulled out a miracle for SEA last week but it looks like QB Geno Smith will be back at starter. Knowing that SEA has something to play for after a 4game losing streak that almost derailed the season, I like SEA here laying the couple of points on the road.
THE PICK: SEA-2 ½
Detroit Lions (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7), (9-4-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS MINN+3
LW, DET @HOME came out swinging vs DEN and never let up. The 1st qtr was back and forth punts but when DET got rolling it was 21-0 at the half. They scored on 3straight possessions as DEN fumbled and punted 4x. In the 2nd half, DEN scored an opening possession td to make it DET 21-7 but, that was as close as they got. DET QB Jared Goff threw for 278yds, 5tds, 0INTS and DET rushed for 185yds between RBs Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery. The final score was DET 42-17. LW, MINN was up 17-3 @CINNCY in the 4th qtr and decided they played enough today. CINNCY scored 21 straight points in the 4th qtr to tie the game at 24 and send it to OT. MINN QB Nick Mullens threw 2INTS during the game that fortunately didn’t turn into any points for CINNCY. However, he didn’t look good down the stretch. The turning point of the game was in OT. MINN had a 3rd & 1 at the CINNCY 42yd line. If MINN got the 1st down, they could get some more yards, kick the fg and win the game. But they ran two QB sneaks that had no chance of getting a 1st down and CINNCY got the ball back. The MINN DEF went to sleep and CINNCY positioned themselves nicely and kicked an easy fg to win the game 27-24. L16 DET @MINN, DET 4-12 SU & 7-7-2 ATS. L32 DET vs MINN, DET 14-15-3 ATS. L32 DET vs MINN, DOG 13-16-3 ATS. L32 DET vs MINN, HOME 14-15-3 ATS. L28 DET vs MINN, DET 12-14-2 ATS. L18 DET vs MINN, AWAY 10-7-1 ATS. DET 10-8 ATS L18 as a ROAD FAV. DET 11-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 23-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 34-37 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 32-26-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. DET 13-10 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 3-9 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. DET 8-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 2-5 ATS as a FAV off DD SU win vs .500>opp. DET 4-9 ATS as a FAV off DD SU win vs .>400 opp. DET 13-1 ATS off DD ATS win. MINN 9-5 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. MINN 3-2-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. MINN 8-6 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. MINN 35-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MINN 34-34-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 25-30-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in DEC. MINN 32-18-1 ATS as a DOG 4pt or less. MINN 11-2 ATS as a div HOME DOG. MINN 9-0 ATS as a div HOAME DOG <7pts. MINN 16-8 ATS @HOME off SU loss. MINN 21-15 ATS as a DOG 6<pts vs opp off SU win. MINN 9-1 ATS off ATS loss vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 16-7 ATS vs .700>opp. MINN 12-6 ATS vs .700>opp off ATS win. MINN 5-12 ATS vs .666> conf opp. MINN 9-2 ATS @HOME vs .500> opp. Nick Mullens is a backup QB for a reason. MINN HC Kevin O’Connell either doesn’t call the right plays or doesn’t have confidence in Mullens. It was obvious with the play selection on that 3rd & 1 towards the end of the game in OT that was so crucial. However, Mullens is slated to start this week against a DET team that showed no let up on both sides of the ball vs DEN. LW, DET woke up after looking pretty sheepish in the last four games. They barely beat CHI, lost @HOME to GB on Thanksgiving, DET barely won @NO and then lost @CHI. The beat down of DEN looked like a wake up call. DET was in command and if they play like that the rest of the season they will go deep into the playoffs for the 1st time in a long time. MINN has a lot of good pieces on OFF & DEF but the question is the QB. The DET OFF shredded a very good DEN DEF. MINN has had some gaps on DEF and DET should be able to exploit them. Lay the points here as DET should roll.
THE PICK: DET-3
Washington Commanders (4-10), (5-9) ATS, (3-5) AWAY, (5-3) ATS @ New York Jets (5-9), (5-8-1) ATS, (3-5) HOME, (4-4) ATS WASH+3
LW, NYJ were manhandled by MIA 30-0. It was actually worse for NYJ than the score reads because NYJ QBs were sacked 6x, had 2INTS & 2lost fumbles. It’s a wonder that MIA didn’t score 50points. NYJ QB Zach Wilson was clobbered and left the game with a concussion and Trevor Siemian didn’t do much better. The rush game for NYJ produced a measly 23yds and the secondary for NYJ looked like it checked out. This game was MIA 24-0 at the half and it was over then. LW, WASH dug themselves a hole 28-7 @LAR before Jacoby Brissett replaced Sam Howell @QB and rallied the team for 2tds in the 4th qtr. But it was too little, too late as LAR held on for a 28-20 win. Brissett is decent when he fills in here or there but, over the long haul of a season he has shown that he can’t lead a team to the playoffs. He makes a lot of mistakes in the field that gets him moving to another team in the off-season. The WASH DEF couldn’t stop the LAR OFF as LAR put up almost 450yds of OFF in this game. L4 WASH vs NYJ, WASH 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS. WASH 9-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. WASH 5-13 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RGs. WASH 39-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 41-39 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 21-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NYJ 28-41-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 10-8 ATS L18 after scoring <10pts. NYJ 10-4 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs opp off SU loss. NYJ 10-19 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 8-7-1 ATS after MIA. Both of these teams have a lot of questions to answer in the off-season. NYJ needs more players besides Aaron Rodgers @QB. Their O-LINE is atrocious and they need guys on the D-LINE. WASH has a slew of holes on DEF and have to decide if they are all in on Sam Howell as their QB. Plus, HC Ron Rivera and some or most of the coaching staff is probably gone too. The funny thing is that I always say, when two terrible teams are playing each other, take the terrible team with the points. I like WASH to keep it close here as they have a better talented OFF than NYJ and they can score points. NYJ Zach Wilson suffered a bad concussion last week @MIA and Trevor Siemian is the likely starter here. But after the dismal play of the NYJ last week, HC Robert Saleh’s job may be in question as well. In his three years as HC who has he developed as a player? The answer is, no one. He is the kind of HC that needs a roster of superstars to look good. Then everyone thinks he’s a great coach. A great HC is a guy who turns nothing into something. NYJ # 27 RUSH DEF. If WASH can find a way to get their run game going, they should be able to control this game. I like WASH and the points here. There will be a lot of empty seats this weekend masquerading as a NYJ fans. Sam Howell is slated to start this game but don’t be surprised if you see Brissett in there if things get out of hand.
THE PICK: WASH+3
Green Bay Packers (6-8), (5-9) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (2-12), (4-9-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS CAR+5
LW, you would have thought ATL had only one win going into this game. The weather wasn’t good in this one @CAR but they stuck with their run game and rushed for 129yds on 36carries. ATL was leading this game 7-3 going into the 4th qtr. CAR got a fg early in the 4th qtr to make the score ATL 7-6. But, ATL QB Desmond Ridder threw an INT that gave CAR a shot at winning the game. CAR drove down the field and kicked a fg with :00 left on the clock to beat ATL 9-7. Somehow, CAR always seems to be battling even if they are down by a little or down by a lot. LW, GB @HOME vs TB. GB never had the lead in this game and was playing catchup from the 1st qtr. TB had a game plan and that was to dominate on both sides of the ball. TB did and GB went down to a 2nd straight defeat after what looked like an upswing in the right direction on their season. The run game for GB was stopped and TB made other stops when needed. GB lost an opportunity here and the game 34-20. The secondary couldn’t stop TB QB Baker Mayfield who seemed to have his pick from who to throw to. L10 GB vs CAR, GB 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS. GB 2-11-1 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. GB 10-10-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. GB 37-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. GB 62-38-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 4-7 ATS before MINN. GB 16-7-1 ATS off a DD ATS loss. CAR 13-14-2 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. CAR 2-3-1 ATS as a HOME DOG this season. CAR 9-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. CAR 35-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 41-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 8-3 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. CAR 12-8 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR 8-7-1 ATS after ATL. CAR 16-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CAR 10-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). A good run game is needed for CAR so that CAR QB Bryce Young doesn’t feel that he has to win the game by himself. At times the CAR run game has been good and at times it has been bad. CAR #17 RUSH OFF. It was good last week vs ATL. Will it be good vs GB? GB #30 RUSH DEF. CAR should run the ball 40x vs GB until the GB defenders fall down. Throw in a sprinkle of passes and CAR has a shot of knocking GB out of the playoff picture. GB gave up 99yds rushing vs TB last week and over 200 yds vs NYG the week before, how many yards rushing do they give up this week? The jury is still out on GB QB Jordan Love. He has looked good at times and bad in other times. He has been inconsistent. Everyone on the OFF for GB is banged up and the secondary for GB is overrated too. They were torched by TB. CAR should have a simple game plan for this vs GB and keep it going. This is a winnable game for CAR as GB is in flux. I like CAR to keep it close. This is a fg game at most with a CAR team that has nothing to lose. There is pressure on GB and QB Love has shown that he is not good under pressure. Take CAR here.
THE PICK: CAR+5
Cleveland Browns (9-5), (6-7-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Houston Texans (8-6), (7-7) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (4-3) ATS HOU+2 ½
LW, CLEV spotted CHI a 17-7 lead then battled back to take a 20-17 lead only to watch a Hail Mary almost snatch defeat from victory from CLEV. CHI’s play calling was suspect which gave CLEV the opportunity to come back in this game. Plus the fact that CHI QB Justin Fields fell back into his bad habits with 2INTS and bad passing and it left the door wide open for CLEV. CLEV QB Joe Flacco had 3INTS, one of which was a PICK6. But, the CHI DEF wasn’t stopping his passes otherwise. Anyway, if the Hail Mary wasn’t dropped by the CHI receiver in the endzone, CLEV would have lost. This game could have gone either way but, CLEV was very lucky to walk away with the win. LW, HOU QB Case Keenum got the start over Davis Mills. Not that it should have mattered. But, TENN was up 13-3 and HOU was without QB CJ Stroud but TENN let HOU stick around and this game was tied 16-16 and headed into OT. HOU QB Case Keenum led a late 4th qtr drive while being down 16-9 for a HOU td and TENN couldn’t do anything moving forward. In OT, both teams touched the ball 2x but HOU was able to get a drive that culminated with a fg with :00 in OT to win 19-16. HOU had a nice ground game they rushed for 148yds on 32 carries. HOU RB Devin Singletary contributed 121yds on 26 carries in the win. L12 CLEV vs HOU, CLEV 5-7 SU & 3-8-1 ATS, HOME 8-4 SU & 6-5-1 ATS. CLEV 4-11-1 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 10-16-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 27-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 8-2 ATS off BB SU wins (last vs non-conf). CLEV 6-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off SU DOG win. CLEV 1-6 ATS before TNF. HOU 15-19 ATS L34 as a HOME DOG. HOU 1-4-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. HOU 7-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. HOU 25-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 31-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 11-3 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 6-16-2 ATS before TENN. HOU 4-9 ATS as a DOG <10pts off SU DOG win vs >.333 opp. CLEV has a lot to play for as PITT is fading fast, CINNCY is still very competitive & BALT is leading the AFC NORTH. CLEV has to keep winning to stay ahead of CINNCY that almost hasn’t missed a beat since QB Joe Burrow went down. CLEV only gave up 1OFF td to CHI last week and almost lost. The CLEV DEF forced CHI to punt 10x. CLEV #1 TOT DEF w/#11 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. Flacco will have to be on his mark this week because he faces another team that is tough vs the run. HOU #6 RUSH DEF. It looks like CJ Stroud is slated to be out of this game as he still is in concussion protocol. That means that Case Keenum will start again. He did a fine job last week but CLEV is a team that has something to play for, not like TENN. Plus, CLEV is better than TENN. HOU & CLEV played @HOU in wk 13 in 2022. This game was QB Deshaun Watson’s 1st game back and HOU was 1-9-1 SU at the time. CLEV won 27-14. I don’t think this current HOU team will have revenge on their minds because it was with different coaches and players. I would lay the pts here as CLEV should have a good game and cut down on their mistakes. They need to force some turnovers here. HOU is very banged up and has not been used to playing for anything this late in the season. I like CLEV here laying the points because they need to stay ahead of CINNCY.
THE PICK: CLEV-2 ½
Sunday December 24th, 2023 4:00pm
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6), (8-6) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), (8-6) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (2-4) ATS JAGS+1
LW on SNF, a bad decision late in the 2nd qtr by JAGS HC Doug Pederson set the tone for the JAGS the rest of the game. Instead of being down, 10-7, JAGS were down 10-0 and had to play catchup the rest of the way. Add in 2missed fgs and a lost fumble by JAGS in the 1st half and they were lucky it wasn’t worse than 10-0. In the 2nd half JAGS got a td to make it 10-7 but that would be a close as they would get because BALT added a td & 2fgs to make the score 23-7. JAGS had a td that was ruled out of bounds and that would have made the game different had JAGS done things differently in the 2nd qtr. On top of it, JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion and will probably be out @TB. LW, TB went to GB and gave them a spanking. TB combined some decent rushing and TB QB Baker Mayfield was able to throw for 22/28, 381yds, 4tds & 0INTs while cruising to a 34-20 win. Baker was sacked 5x and did fumble 1x which was turned into a td by GB and an early 7-3 lead but TB seemed to answer back with a score every time GB threatened with a score. TB is in very good position to win the NFC SOUTH and get into the playoffs. L4 JAGS vs TB, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. JAGS 36-43 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 27-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. JAGS 2-1 SU 7 2-1 ATS this season vs NFC. JAGS 2-10 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. JAGS 1-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 8-1 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off DD SU win. JAGS 5-14 ATS vs NFC SOUTH. TB 7-13-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. TB 4-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs vs non-div. TB 34-37-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 28-33-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 9-16-2 ATS off DD SU win. TB 3-7-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 4-2-1 ATS L7 as a HOME FAV 3<pts. Bad decisions by JAG HC Doug Pederson continue to put the JAGS in a hole. I could list them here but they pile up as the bad decision in last week’s game vs BALT towards the end of the 1st half. It sets up the rest of the game and how it’s played. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is still in concussion protocol and is probably not playing. That means that CJ Beathard is starting @QB. JAGS were 8-3 and are now 8-6 and have HOU & INDY on their tails. The DEF for the JAGS in the last three games has looked non-existent. TB is motivated because right now they have won 3straight to make the NFC SOUTH a competitive race. Their schedule is winnable the rest of the way, they just have to keep winning. In the last three games TB QB Baker Mayfield has 7tds & 1INT. He has significantly cut down his INTS form his earlier days but still sometimes tries to make something out of nothing. Baker should be chomping at the bit this week. He shredded a GB secondary that was #12 vs the pass and JAGS are much worse. JAGS #29 PASS DEF. All TB needs in this game is a decent run game and Mayfield will be able to drop passes in like he did last week @GB. TB has receivers that almost never drop passes and it should be pickings for Baker. JAGS have fallen and I don’t know if they could get up. This is close to PICK’EM game because both teams have something big to play for but they are going in opposite directions. TB is peaking and JAGS are falling. I like TB here to win by a td in a very good game.
THE PICK: TB-1
Arizona Cardinals (3-11), (6-8) ATS, (1-6) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ Chicago Bears (5-9), (7-6-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS ARZ+4
LW, ARZ played their hearts out @SF. But SF is just too tough and is currently the #1 seed in the NFC. ARZ did rush for 234yds but it was mostly in BIG catchup mode and I don’t think ARZ would get that much on the ground if the score was closer. The ARZ DEF couldn’t stop the weapons of SF and eventually lost 45-29. This game was SF 35-16 going into the 4th qtr and ad ARZ scored a td to make it SF 35-22. This game was SF 14-13 in the 2nd qtr but SF decided they had enough and started to pull away. On the backs of their DEF, CHI was up 17-7 @CLEV and it looked like they would get a nice win after beating DET the week before. But CHI started with their suspect play calling and the usually reliable CHI DEF gave up 1td and 2fgs in the 4th qtr to lose the game 20-17. Miraculously, CHI almost won this game as they had a Hail Mary fall out of the hands of a CHI receiver in the endzone which would have given CHI a 24-20 win. But, bad teams find a way to lose and CHI found a way to lose on this day. CHI QB Justin Fields fell back into his bad habits and threw 2INTS that didn’t help his cause. He also missed passes that he should have made, completing only 19/40 for 166yds. L6 ARZ vs CHI, ARZ 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS. ARZ 10-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. ARZ 48-42 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 31-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 8-12 ATS after SF. ARZ 23-9 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 11-1 ATS as a DOG >4pts vs <.500 opp. CHI 7-11-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CHI 2-7-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs vs non-div opp. CHI 27-25 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CHI 39-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. CHI 6-13 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. CHI 6-19 ATS as a conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. CHI 3-13 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. When you have two bad teams playing each other, take the bad team with the points. CHI is bad unless they are playing a team in the NFC NORTH. ARZ gives it all they got and at least tries to compete. The only thing going for CHI is their DEF. CHI #14 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. But even they disappear sometimes and it reflects badly in the win-loss column. CHI will have to make a decision on Fields in the off-season. But he is a run first, pass second type of QB and that is a recipe for disaster in the NFL. I like ARZ here keeping it close and winning by a fg at the end.
THE PICK: ARZ+4
Dallas Cowboys (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (3-4) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS DAL+1 ½
LW, MIA played a scrimmage @HOME vs NYJ. Even without WR Tyreek Hill, MIA was leading 24-0 at the half. I thought that MIA would win but it would be a close one as revenge might be a factor for NYJ and their good showing vs HOU. It was neither and MIA could have 50pts if they wanted to. MIA was dominant on both sides and knocked NYJ QB Zach Wilson out of the game. The final score was MIA 30-0. LW, DAL was slammed at BUFF, 31-10. It was even that close as DAL scored a late dummy td from 31-3. But DAL was dominated at the line of scrimmage on OFF & DEF. BUFF rushed for 266yds & 3tds on 49 carries as DAL had no answer. DAL couldn’t run the ball and when they tried to pass, it really didn’t go anywhere. I thought DAL would continue their good showing after beating PHILLY but, it was short lived because DAL doesn’t play well on the road. Now they go to MIA. L4 DAL vs MIA, DAL 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. DAL 16-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. DAL 30-45-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 28-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 17-6-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <8pts. DAL 11-5-1 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG <8pts. MIA 35-46 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 28-56 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 6-5 ATS after NYJ. MIA 7-1 ATS as a HOME FAV off DD SU win. MIA gets back WR Tyreek Hill and he will be ready to go. If MIA wants to really win this game, they should look at the tape of the BUFF game. BUFF stopped DAL many times with an extra defender coming around the end. BUFF also ran the ball like crazy right over DAL and DAL couldn’t stop it. MIA should run the ball until DAL just falls down. MIA should use RBs Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane & Jeff Wilson as many times as needed so that QB Tua Tagovailoa can just drop passes all over when the secondary thinks it’s a run play. MIA #1 TOT OFF w/ #4 RUSH OFF & # 1 PASS OFF vs DAL #6 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. DAL is a completely different team on the road and they have shown that. DAL has won @NYG, @LAC & @CAR, BIG DEAL. They have lost @ARZ, @SF, @PHILLY & @BUFF. They have lost to 3 of 4 playoff teams. MIA is certainly a playoff team. Is this the week DAL turns it around? MIA has a lot to play for here as they are right behind BAL and have a date with them next week. MIA needs this game to have a shot at the #1 spot. DAL has to have a lot of different things to happen to get to #1 or they will be on the road in the playoffs. I like MIA here because the crowd will be pumped and MIA should be ready to roll. It should be a good game but I like MIA by a td.
THE PICK: MIA-1 ½
Sunday December 24th, 2023 8:20pm
New England Patriots (3-11), (3-10-1) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Denver Broncos (7-7), (5-9) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (3-4) ATS NE+6 ½
LW, DEN was slammed at DET, 42-17. DEN was dominated on both sides of the ball by DET and the score reflected it with a DET 21-0 halftime lead. The DEF for DEN gave up 5passing tds and 1rushing td. Plus, the DEN DEF did not create any turnovers or make any stops that mattered. It was a scrimmage game for DET and a wakeup call for DEN. LW, I liked NE+9 ½ @HOME vs KC because KC has not been playing like KC in the past and the NE DEF can be stingy at times. The NE DEF was playing well in this game but the OFF for NE couldn’t muster enough OFF in the 2nd half to make a real game out of this. The score was only KC 14-10 at the half but KC scored 13pts in the 3rd qtr to make NE go into panic mode. The NE DEF stopped the KC run game at 43yds but when it counted KC QB Pat Mahomes was able to throw 2tds even though he had 2INTS as well. NE ended up losing 27-17. L12 NE vs DEN, NE 7-5 SU & 7-5 ATS. NE 14-7 ATS on SNF. NE 16-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. NE 13-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NE 25-18-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-35-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. NE 13-1 ATS as a DOG off DD SU loss. NE 16-10-2 ATS vs AFC WEST. NE 13-8 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 18-7 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. NE 11-1 ATS as a DOG <7pts off DD SU loss. NE 8-10-1 ATS before BUFF. DEN 15-15 ATS as a FAV on SNF. DEN 8-2 ATS vs non-div on SNF. DEN 13-8-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DEN 29-33-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DEN 38-45-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DEN 3-10-1 ATS before LAC. DEN 2-7 ATS as a FAV vs AFC EAST. DEN 7-1 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DEN 4-12 ATS off DD SU loss vs <.500 opp. DEN 18-5 ATS vs .333< non-div conf opp off SU loss. DEN still has a legitimate shot at a wild card spot and NE has a shot at a high draft pick. It has been a disaster for NE this season and they need to see if they have good players to be on this team in 2024. The DEF has stars and that is good enough to build on. But the OFF needs work and receivers who can playmake. You know DEN is going to bounce back here after getting beaten badly by DET last week. DEN HC Sean Payton was seen yelling at QB Russell Wilson on the sidelines and they will certainly play better this week. Both of these teams have good DEFs on paper but Wilson will certainly play better this week after a dismal showing @DET. Lay the points here as DEN still is playing for something and needs to show that they belong.
THE PICK: DEN-6 ½
Monday December 25th, 2023 1:00pm
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8), (7-6-1) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-4), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS LV+10
On TNF, everything went well @HOME for LV vs LAC. Trick plays worked, the passing game was on fire and the run game was moving all without RB Josh Jacobs. LV was up 42-0 at the half and was up 63-7 before LAC scored 2dummy tds in the 4th qtr to make the final score 63-21. LV looked like a superstar team and LV QB Aidan O’Connell was 20/34 for 248yds, 4tds & 0INTs. The DEF and special teams created 5turnovers for LV which added 35pts to their total. LW, KC @NE should have been an easier game for KC. Instead they had enough self inflicted wounds that kept NE hanging around until they too shot themselves in the foot. For the reasons that KC has not looked great this season, I liked NE+9 ½ . But wouldn’t you know it, KC did just enough to win and cover 27-17. The run game didn’t do much to help KC QB Pat Mahomes with 43yds rushing on 20carries and a deflected PICK 6 had KC fans grumbling once again. But the KC DEF made stops late to warrant any more damage by NE to preserve the win. L16 LV @KC, LV 7-9 SU but 9-7 ATS. L33 LV vs KC, ROAD 19-14 SU & 20-13 ATS. L33 LV vs KC, DOG 17-14 ATS 2PICK’EMS. L13 LV vs KC, KC 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS. LV 11-14 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. 29-40-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LV 23-46-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LV 34-56-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. 10-6 ATS after LAC. LV 7-9-1 ATS w/rest. KC 10-11 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. KC 40-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. 45-38-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 41-28 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. KC 8-17 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs <.500 opp. KC 8-14 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. KC 8-2 ATS vs div opp w/revenge off SUATS win. LV is not scoring 63pts this week. Nor are they turning 5turnovers by KC into 35pts. LV has to get back to earth and realize that KC is fighting for position in the AFC playoffs. This game being @KC doesn’t help LV because they have not played well on the road. They are falling into the typical dome team that doesn’t play well away from home and against the elements of weather. LV RB Josh Jacobs should be back this week to give the team a boost but that may not help them as KC is not too shabby vs the run. KC #4 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. Coming back after two games out with a shoulder injury, will be KC RB Isiah Pacheco who will be very motivated to get going. You may be thinking that LV has a little revenge on their minds for their wk 12 loss @HOME vs KC, 31-17. But right now, KC is still on another level. In that game, LV, was up 14-0 before KC took control and won 31-17. Also in that game, LV RB Josh Jacobs rushed for 110yds & 1td on 20 carries while KC RB Isiah Pacheco rushed for 55yds & 2tds on 15carries. KC knows that for LV to win, they need a balanced attack. They will probably focus in on Jacobs from the start. We’ll see what happens here but I like KC to win and cover.
THE PICK: KC-10
Monday December 25th, 2023 4:30pm
New York Giants (5-9), (5-8-1) ATS, (2-6) AWAY, (2-6) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-4), (7-6-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (2-3-1) ATS NYG+11 ½
LW, I got caught up in the whole “Tommy Cutlets” hoopla. NYG QB Tommy DeVito put on a show on MNF vs GB and I seriously thought it would continue into NO. so did a lot of people. Well, it didn’t and the rest of NYG took a beating as well, 24-6. He was smacked around so bad, he left the game temporarily and Tyrod Taylor came in for a few snaps. But NO was ready and NYG managed only 2fgs while the NYG DEF couldn’t stop the NO run or pass. NO QB Derek Carr threw 3tds and spread the ball around to 10different receivers. NYG couldn’t make a stop. Now they have to play @PHILLY who are really pissed off. On MNF, PHILLY made some suspect play calling with the ball, the lead 17-13 and 3:00 remaining. They had 2plays to get a 1st down that would have sealed the game. But they went conservative and predictable and gave the ball back to SEA with 1:52 left at the SEA 8yd line. You know what happened next and SEA QB Drew Lock turned into Tom Brady and won the game 20-17. The PHILLY DEF was making stops on SEA all game up to this point. Then they forgot how to defend. There was no DEF for PHILLY on this drive even though they knew who was getting the ball. Drew picked this DEF apart. PHILLY needed this win and they blew it at the end of the game. L16 NYG @PHILLY, NYG 4-12 SU but 9-6-1 ATS. L32 NYG vs PHILLY, DOG 20-11-1 ATS. L32 NYG vs PHILLY, ROAD 19-12-1 ATS. NYG 10-11-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 8-10-2 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 48-36 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 34-32 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 39-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 16-12 ATS a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 16-7 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 6-3 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs div opp. NYG 4-13 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 18-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 1-5 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU FAV loss. PHILLY 7-11-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PHILLY 37-29 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 42-39 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 40-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. PHILLY 7-3 ATS off 3+ SU losses. This week, NYG is playing a very pissed off PHILLY team. PHILLY blew it last week and the two weeks before because their OFF has become very predictable and conservative. PHILLY throws the ball to the same four guys every week and that’s it. Then they rush the same plays with the same guys and that’s it. As an opposing team, you don’t have to watch film because PHILLY has become predictable. They were the #1 seed in the NFC and now it looks like anyone can beat them. Right now NYG doesn’t have the horses to compete with PHILLY. But, PHILLY needs to do some soul searching this week and ask themselves how bad do they want it? The passing DEF is pitiful for PHILLY and it has to be addressed in the off-season. PHILLY #28 PASS DEF. They do not defend the middle of the field well and that has been a problem all season. Guys have been injured and they are due to get CB Avonte Maddox back but, where was OLB Hassan Reddick last week when they needed him? Guys tend to disappear on the PHILLY DEF and that is what has gotten this team in trouble. NYG O-LINE is a mess and I don’t see them doing much vs a PHILLY D-LINE that is pissed off this week. This game has the makings of a blowout because that is what PHILLY needs as a confidence builder going forward. Lay the points here as PHILLY saves their season. If PHILLY throws a dud then I would fade them the rest of the season and against whomever they play in the playoffs. But, for this game I see blowout city.
THE PICK: PHILLY-11 ½
Monday December 25th, 2023 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-3), (9-5) ATS, (6-1) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (11-3), (10-4) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (5-1) ATS BALT+5 ½
LW, SF @HOME toyed with ARZ. SF is so much more superior than ARZ on both sides of the ball, SF could have scored 60pts. ARZ had no answer in this game and it was 45-22 before ARZ got a dummy td at the end to make the final score 45-29. SF is getting ready for a drive to the SuperBowl. LW on SNF @JAGS, BALT was in a game that was actually tougher than the final score emanates. JAGS HC is notorious for making bad decisions that puts JAGS behind the eight ball and he started with the bad decisions right before halftime. Plus, the missed fgs didn’t help either. Had JAGS made the fgs and scored a td before half, it would have been JAGS 13-10 instead of BALT 10-0. The 2nd half would have been played differently by both teams. But, because of the 10-0 each team plays a certain way to win the game and not lose. Anyway, BALT won 23-7. BALT ran over JAGS for 251yds, 1td on 43carries. This is where BALT is unstoppable. L4 BALT vs SF, BALT 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS, HOME 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. BALT 8-3-2 ATS L13 on MNF. BALT 3-7 ATS AWAY on MNF vs opp off DD SU win. BALT 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BALT 34-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 33-29 ATS as a DOG in DEC. BALT 17-20-1 ATS L38 vs NFC. BALT 10-1-1 ATS as a non-div DOG. BALT 7-16-2 ATS after allowing <10pts. BALT 8-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 12-17 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 2-15 ATS off DD non-div win vs opp off DD SU win. SF 20-9 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. SF 11-3 ATS on MNF vs .333>opp. SF 36-30-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 40-45-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 9-3-1 ATS after ARZ. SF 7-1 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SUATS win. SF 10-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666>opp. 7-4 ATS off SU div RAOD win. SF 6-2 ATS @HOME off SU div ROAD win. This may be a preview of the SuperBowl. As I mentioned, BALT is a very good run team and has a very O-LINE. BALT QB Lamar Jackson has been sacked 34x because he is so mobile. But it is a good thing and his health is good. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs SF #3 RUSH DEF. Can BALT do it again? I originally felt strong about SF winning this game BIG but, when the spread came out, BALT was public about how they were “disrespected” by a such a BIG spread and that they were the DOG. There is no question that they are the DOG here but, I happen to agree with them that the spread is too big. Plus, now you have a motivational factor that BALT has on their shoulders to keep this game close or even find a way to win. Outside factors affect athletes all the time. This is a definite feeling that they have to show up. NFL teams have won on pure effort even when they were far inferior on paper. BALT is not far inferior but they certainly have a bone to pick. The pressure is definitely on SF because they have to show up and show up BIG. I like SF to win the game by a fg and BALT to cover. If there is a blowout by SF, I would be shocked but BALT is very motivated because they feel that they have been taken for granted. This should be a great game with SF winning by a fg. Take the points here.
THE PICK: BALT+5 ½