2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 3 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday September 21^st, 2023 8:15pm

New York Giants (1-1), (0-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS                           NYG+10 ½

LW, NYG had a nice comeback win @ARZ. But it was ARZ. Plus, in that win, RB Saquon Barkley hurt his ankle and he is definitely out this week @SF. RB Matt  Breida will start in his place. I liked NYG winning by 3pts, that’s why I picked ARZ+5 ½. ARZ should have won the game as they were leading 28-7 in the 3^rd qtr but played conservatively and lost the game. As for SF, they beat LAR 30-23. It should have been 30-20 but LAR HC Sean McVay had the team kick a fg with :04 on the clock and no chance of getting the ball back. Why bother? Did he have money on the game? LAR was up 17-10 but SF put the clamps on and LAR couldn’t do anything. L10 SF vs NYG, SF 4-6 SU & 5-5 ATS. SF 4-9 ATS L13 on TNF. SF 1-6 ATS on TNF off SU win. SF 7-12-1ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SF 28-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SF 36-33 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 4-14 ATS before ARZ. SF 5-4 ATS off SU div RD win. SF 5-2 ATS @HOME aft SU div RD win. SF 7-4 ATS aft LAR. SF 6-0 ATS L6 @HOME vs .500> conf opp. NYG 10-5 ATS on TNF. NYG 8-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NYG 7-5 ATS AWAY on TNF. NYG 9-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYG 31-22-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NYG 33-30-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 15-4 ATS as a conf RD 5>pts. NYG 6-14 ATS vs NFC WEST. NYG 25-6 ATS as a DOG 5>pts aft an SU win. NYG 4-15 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU wins. SF looks tough on both sides of the ball and they really don’t have any holes. This is the SF HOME OPENER and they will be coming out strong. NYG looked horrible vs DAL in week 1 and w/o Barkley this week, QB Daniel Jones will be running for his life. SF should win by at least 14pts. Lay the points here.   

THE PICK: SF-10 ½  

Sunday September 24^th, 2023 1:00pm

Tennessee Titans (1-1), (2-0) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-10, (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                            TENN+3 ½

LW, CLEV RB Nick Chubb was rolling but injured his knee and probably will be out for the season. This is a big blow to the offense of CLEV and to Nuck Chubb. RB Jerome Ford did his best in the meantime and did have a run of 69yds that was just shy of the endzone. But 4turnovers by CLEV incl 2turnovers by QB Deshaun Watson that directly led to PITT tds were the killers in the 26-22 loss on MNF. You can’t win games when you turn the ball over too many times. TENN played toe-to-toe with LAC and beat them in OT 27-24. TENN needed the game after losing on the road @NO. That was game they should have won but a bad decision was made that cost TENN the game. The TENN DEF held the LAC run game in check and put it all on LAC QB Justin Herbert. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill was under pressure all day but did not turn the ball over. L9 TENN vs CLEV, TENN 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS. TENN 32-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. TENN 39-23 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. TENN 9-15 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 4-6 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. TENN 2-11 ATS L13 vs AFC NORTH. CLEV 11-11-3 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CLEV 21-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CLEV 8-13 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEV 4-10-1 ATS bef BALT. I like TENN in this game because they are have a more balanced attack. CLEV’s Watson needs a RB to take pressure off of him and TENN is very good vs the run. Without Chubb it will be very tough and Watson will be throwing all day. Even though CLEV is in bounce back mode, I like TENN to keep it close and get the win. This is a 3pt game either way and I don’t see a blowout by either team. But, I like getting the points.  

THE PICK: TENN+3 ½   

Atlanta Falcons (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Detroit Lions (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                      ATL+3 ½

LW, DET lost a game they should have won. It was revenge for their loss last season @HOME vs SEA but this time again, DET made some mistakes that cost them. DET played catchup and was able to push the game into OT but SEA took advantage and scored a td to win 37-31. This was an air assault by both teams but the DEF for DET must do better. ATL came back from a 24-12 deficit to win 25-24 vs GB. ATL was run heavy with 45attempts on the ground but didn’t give up even though they were trailing in the 4^th qtr. Is ATL QB Desmiond Ridder coming into his own? He looks more at ease with each passing game. It doesn’t hurt that ATL RB Bijan Robinson is getting yards and taking a lot of pressure off of Ridder. L10 ATL vs DET, ATL 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. But, ATL @DET L5, ATL 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. ATL 34-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. ATL 37-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ATL 14-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ATL 8-1 ATS as a DOG <6pts vs NFC NORTH. DET 10-4-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs, 1NL. DET 36-22 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DET 38-39 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 4-14 ATS before GB. DET 5-13 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 3-8 ATS @HOME after allow 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 6-0 ATS L6 @HOME after allow 35>pts. DET 6-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. DET showed they have what it takes to beat the big boys as they did 2 weeks ago @KC. They need to get back on track and play smash mouth football. They eased up a little vs SEA but they should throw different looks on DEF to confuse the young ATL QB. I like DET here laying the points

THE PICK: DET-3 ½  

New Orleans Saints (2-0), (1-0-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS            NO+2

LW, GB was up 24-12 in the 4^th qtr at ATL. Well, GB got complacent and ATL woke up. End of the story, ATL 25-24 with a winning fg coming at the end of the game. GB QB Jordan Love is playing fine but the DEF has to play better. LW, NO almost let CAR back in the game on MNF. With the score NO 20-9, the DEF for NO played prevent and let CAR score a quick td. Then the onside kick. Luckily it was recovered by NO but if it was recovered by CAR, with the momentum shift, CAR would have won. That’s how close it got. But NO held on 20-17 for a push. NO even gave u the 2pt conversion which would have meant a cover. In the NFL you can’t go soft. L9 NO vs GB, NO 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. NO 14-6 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NO 28-33-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NO 27-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NO 50-39-1 ATS L90 AWAY. NO 16-7 ATS L23 vs NFC NORTH. NO 10-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH. NO 23-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG. NO 5-11 ATS before TB. GB 10-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. GB 36-27-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. GB 42-40 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. GB 6-14 ATS as a non-div conf FAV/DOG 3<pts. GB 11-6 ATS bef DET. The NO DEF has played well but who have they played? CAR and stagnant TENN. GB has weapons and they will use them. As you can see, put pressure on NO QB Derek Carr and he folds. That’s the recipe GB will use. I like GB here laying points what is almost a PICK’EM. GB bounces back and NO gets their 1^st loss.

THE PICK: GB-2

Denver Broncos (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS                                        DEN+6 ½

LW, DEN was up 21-3 @HOME vs WASH. I liked DEN and it was looking good. Then the wheels fell off for DEN and they found themselves trailing 35-24. DEN played catchup to no avail losing 35-33. However, DEN did make it interesting. LW, MIA shot out to a nice lead 17-3 @NE on SNF and then coasted to a 24-17 win. The MIA OFF is explosive and looks like it can’t be stopped. L7 DEN vs MIA, DEN 4-3 SU but 2-5 ATS. DEN 15-10 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DEN 20-15 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 31-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DEN 10-5-1 ATS AWAY after allowing 28>pts. DEN 5-9 ATS as a non-div DOG>3pts vs 650>opp. MIA 25-28-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MIA 27-24 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. MIA 10-15 ATS off div RG. MIA 7-11 ATS @HOME off div RG. MIA 4-7 ATS as a HOME FAV off div RG. MIA 2-11 ATS as a HF >3pts off div RG. MIA 4-11 ATS aft NE. MIA 2-6 ATS before div RG. DEN has the same problems they had lat season, QB Russell Wilson. He does not look like the same guy that was @SEA for so many years. The DEN OFF has problems moving the ball and getting into the endzone. MIA is just too tough right now and this is their HOME OPENER. They probably want to put on a show for all the HOME fans. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa will spread the ball around. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: MIA-6 ½    

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                 LAC+1

Neither one of these teams were expected to start out 0-2. MINN should be 1-1 and LAC should be at least 1-1. But instead now they are both desperate. LAC OLB Khalil Mack has been invisible. LAC QB Justin Herbert is playing well but needs a win. MINN has not impressed anyone and with 4 fumbles @PHILLY last week, that was the difference in the game. MINN should have won that game. L5 MINN vs LAC MINN 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. LAC 10-81 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAC 29-34-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAC 27-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAC 22-10-1 ATS before LV. MINN 36-27-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MINN 28-35-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. MINN 10-11 ATS w/rest. MINN 14-2 ATS off BB SU loss vs non-div opp. MINN 16-6 ATS @HOME off SU loss. This game will be a shootout with LAC getting the win. The MINN DEF is overrated and with all the weapons that LAC have on OFF, it will be tough to stop. I like this game coming down to the wire with the last team holding the ball, winning the game, preferably the Chargers.

THE PICK: LAC+1

New England Patriots (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ New York Jets (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                               NYJ+3

There was no way that NYJ were beating DAL LW. If you watched the game, DAL toyed with NYJ and probably could have scored 50 points instead of 30. They played conservatively in the 2^nd half. The DEF for DAL didn’t let up and DAL won 30-10. As for NE, they make mistakes that in past seasons they would never make. They let MIA get a nice lead and then coast to 24-17 win on SNF. I felt with the DEF for NE that they would keep it closer but, to no avail. Is QB Mac Jones the guy for NE? L16 NE @ NYJ, NE 12-5 SU & 8-8 ATS. L25 NE vs NYJ, ROAD 12-13 ATS. L25 NE vs NYJ, NE 23-2 SU & 14-10 ATS. NE 6-5 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. NE 12-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NE 28-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 32-37-2 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NE 22-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NE 14-6 ATS aft MIA. NYJ 13-15 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 5-16 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NYJ 26-23 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NYJ 30-41 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYJ 21-36 ATS @HOME in SEPT. How NE is the FAV here, I don’t know but, I like it as NYJ is a better team. Even though NE is desperate for a win, so is NYJ coming of that big loss. NE can’t stop the run and has given up big games vs PHILLY and MIA. I see NYJ using the run BIG here and keeping the NE OFF off the field. NYJ QB Zach Wilson should feel a little more comfortable this week knowing that the DAL DEF is done coming for him. Take the NYJ  & the points here.

THE PICK: NYJ+3

Buffalo Bills (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (0-1) ATS                           WASH+6 ½

LW, BUFF needed a big win after the loss at NYJ. LV are still fakers and I should have realized that they would be destroyed. BUFF won 38-10. WASH is playing with a never say die attitude and even down 21-3 LW @ DEN, they just never gave up. WASH was winning 35-24 before DEN played catchup to no avail. WASH held on 35-33. WASH QB Sam Howell is taking what the DEF gives him and is spreading the ball around nicely. He connected with 10 different receivers @DEN which can certainly keep the DEF guessing. Plus, a reliable run game for WASH doesn’t hurt either. L5 BUFF vs WASH, BUFF 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. BUFF 12-10-1 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 29-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BUFF 35-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 8-3-1 ATS before MIA. WASH 11-14 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. WASH 21-38 ATS @HOME in SEPT. WASH 28-31 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. WASH 3-6 ATS bef PHILLY. WASH 8-0 ATS L8 off SU nion-div win vs non-div opp off SU win. I like the points here with WASH because they are not laying down for anyone.  DE Chase Young let his presence be known in the game @DEN w/ 1.5 sacks and when he’s in the game, the O-LINE has to pay attention which opens up the play for others. Believe it or not, BUFF QB Josh Allen will have pressure on him most of this game. If BUFF wins this game it won’t be by much. I like WASH keeping it close. Take WASH and the points and don’t be surprised if WASH gets an upset here, it’s possible.  

THE PICK: WASH+6 ½ 

Houston Texans (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                           HOU+9 ½  

HOU is not on the same page as everyone else. They have played catchup in the last two games to no avail. The run game has been non-existent which has not helped their rookie QB CJ Stroud. Never the less, they are now facing a JAGS team on a bounceback. That is never good. JAGS had their chances LW @HOME vs KC but, it’s KC and the football gods are on their side. JAGS have a good team and a good HC and this should be a game where they shine. They cannot let HOU think that they are in this game. L16 HOU @JAGS, HOU 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. L22 HOU vs JAGS, ROAD 15-7 ATS. L10 HOU vs JAGS , HOU 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS. HOU 11-9 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. HOU 21-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. HOU 18-19 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU 4-10 ATS as a DOG 7>pts vs opp off SU loss. JAGS 7-18 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. JAGS 31-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. JAGS 23-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. JAGS 23-16 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in SEPT. JAGS 2-10 ATS as a FAV 7>pts off SUATS loss. JAGS 4-7 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. JAGS 9-14 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333<opp. JAGS will have a big game this week @HOME vs HOU. The JAGS run game will be strong and QB Trevor Lawrence will hit all his receivers. JAGS cannot have any turnovers. HOU is really trying to find themselves and get things going. But, they are a very young team and they are learning as they are going.  

THE PICK: JAGS-9 ½

Indianapolis Colts (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                INDY+7 ½

I liked BALT+3 ½ LW @CINNCY and they proved me right. BALT QB Lamar Jackson is taking what the DEF gives him and the run game is helping as well. Jackson is spreading the ball out which helps too. This keeps DEFs guessing. INDY beat HOU last week, so what. INDY QB Anthony Richardson got a concussion and probably will be out this week. In comes Gardner Minshew who will also probably start this week. But he folds up under pressure and that’s what the BALT DEF will put on him. L10 INDY vs BALT, INDY 6-4 SU & 9-1 ATS. INDY 12-8 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. INDY 30-27 ATS AWAY in SEPT. INDY 24-25 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. INDY 8-5 ATS after HOU. INDY 9-9 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. BALT 35-21 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BALT 39-32 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 8-13 ATS vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 10-3 ATS bef CLEV. INDY still has rushing by committee even though Zack Moss looks to be settling in as the front runner. But BALT will be waiting as they are usually very good vs the rush. It will be all on Minshew’s shoulders. Lay the points here as BALT rolls. It’s one thing to beat HOU but BALT? C’mon. I see BALT winning by at least 10pts here.

THE PICK: BALT-7 ½

Sunday September 24^th, 2023 4:00pm

Carolina Panthers (0-2), (0-1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                         CAR+6

LW, SEA beat DET in OT @DET. That was a game that I thought DET would win as a revenge game for 2022. But SEA played strong and didn’t let up. SEA had a nice lead but let DET come back to tie. In OT, SEA drove down the field and scored a td to end the game. CAR made the final score look close on MNF @HOME vs NO but they were really out of it with no run game. The final score was NO 20-17 but NO let CAR back in the game with a td and an almost recovered onside kick. CAR QB Bryce Young is playing better but needs to get better for this team to win. L11 CAR vs SEA, SEA 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. CAR 25-23-2 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 21-22 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CAR 11-12 ATS away of div gm. CAR 0-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses vs opp w/rev. CAR 11-4 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 10-2 ATS as a DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. SEA 36-26-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 33-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SEA 4-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. SEA 3-11 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500<opp. SEA 4-11 ATS as a FAV vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 6-12 ATS L18 vs NFC SOUTH. SEA 13-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts. These two teams played each other in wk 14 @SEA last season with CAR winning 30-24. In that game, CAR rushed for over 200 yds and CAR played a more rush heavy game than pass. CAR stormed out to a 17-0 lead and had SEA playing catchup to no avail. This is a revenge game for SEA to beat up on CAR. CAR has an inexperienced QB in Bryce Young and he is just learning the NFL game. SEA will be ready. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: SEA-6

Chicago Bears (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                                  CHI+12 ½  

LW, KC did what they needed to do @JAGS to win. It wasn’t the prettiest of games for KC but they won 17-9. The spread was KC-3 and I thought KC would bounceback nicely after their loss on TNF @HOME vs DET. KC TE Travis Kelce was back and KC QB Pat Mahomes spread the ball around nicely to 11 different receivers. This kept the JAGS guessing all day. JAGS had their chances but the KC DEF came up big. The DEF for KC sacked JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence 4x. LW, CHI had a lot of missed opportunities @TB. The game was closer than the score but CHI QB Justin Fields threw 2INTS when CHI needed points. It basically gave the game to TB. The CHI DEF didn’t make stops when they needed them either and this week the KC DEF is better than the TB DEF so watch out. L4 CHI vs KC, KC 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. CHI 9-8-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CHI 23-35 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 34-26 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CHI 14-9 ATS L23 AWAY vs AFC. KC 28-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. KC 36-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 4-10 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400 opp. KC DT Chris Jones should have a big game this week as CHI is a run heavy game and Fields is a run first, throw 2^nd type of QB. Even though KC has not been good vs the spread as a HOME FAV, CHI is bad and is up against a team and a stadium that will be pumped. Hopefully KC can deliver on some CHI mistakes and not let CHI get a back door cover. This should be a KC 31-17 game. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: KC-12 ½

Dallas Cowboys (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (0-2), (2-0) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                  ARZ+12

LW, DAL could have scored 50 points @HOME vs NYJ. They let up in the 2^nd half but still had a comfortable lead. DAL won 30-10 and they were dominating on both sides of the ball. ARZ was up 28-7 @HOME in the 3^rd qtr vs NYG and lost 31-28. Up to that point, ARZ looked good and NYG bad. But, all of a sudden the roles became reversed and ARZ couldn’t do anything right. L9 DAL vs ARZ, ARZ 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS. DAL 13-9 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 37-21-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DAL 32-36-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DAL 7-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts w/revenge. DAL 9-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SU win vs .333<opp. DAL 13-4 ATS off SU win vs .333<opp. ARZ 13-15-1 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 6-12-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. ARZ 15-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 13-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >3pts. ARZ 6-8 ATS bef SF. ARZ 9-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >2pts vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 10-4 ATS L14 vs NFC EAST. ARZ is no match for DAL. So far, DAL has shown that they are dominating on both sides of the ball. ARZ is just trying to find their way. Last time these two teams played was in 2021 @DAL with ARZ winning 25-22. DAL was a 6 ½ FAV but ARZ was a better team in 2021. There may be some payback on the minds of DAL here. Usually a BIG HOME DOG is a solid pick but DAL has all their weapons available and they are looking to make statements. I like DAL here covering.

THE PICK: DAL-12

Sunday September 24^th, 2023 8:20pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS                              PITT+2 ½

LW, the DEF won the game for PITT @HOME vs CLEV on MNF. CLEV had an INT & fumb that were returned for tds and PITT had 1OFF td the whole evening. The score should have been CLEV 22-12. Instead the final score was PITT 26-22. The OFF for PITT is pretty bad and most of the blame falls on OC Matt Canada for an OFF scheme that goes nowhere. LW, LV were bombed out at BUFF 38-10. They were BIG DOGS @+9 ½ and I didn’t think they would win, I just thought they would keep it close. On top of the beating LV had 3turnovers. L10 PITT vs LV, LV 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS. PITT 17-16 ATS AWAY on SNF. PITT 14-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. PITT 9-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PITT 22-36-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PITT 14-25-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. PITT 9-14 ATS L23 vs AFC WEST. LV 7-6-2 ATS off an SU loss on SNF. LV 7-3 ATS @HOME on SNF. LV 26-31 ATS @HOME on SNF. LV 23-26 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LV 8-9-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 6-14 ATS bef LAC. LV 8-4 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SU DOG win. LV 7-0 ATS w/conf REV vs opp off SU DOG win. These two teams always play a good game. LV always plays PITT tough no matter what their record is. LV is on a serious bounceback and needs to get everyone on board here. The PITT OFF is atrocious and if LV plays their game, LV should win this game easily in front of the HOME crowd. Look for Jimmy G to have a BIG game. These two teams played in week 16 of last season with PITT winning 13-10 @PITT at the end of the game. This game was also on SNF. There may be some revenge in the minds of LV here. Lay the points.

THE PICK: LV-2 ½

Monday September 25^th, 2023 7:15pm

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS          TB+5 ½  

LW, PHILLY ran for a lot of yardage vs MINN on TNF. But MINN had 4flost fumbles and manges to only lose by 6pts. I liked MINN+7 and they managed the back door cover. PHILLY doesn’t look totally in sync yet but they are winning. TB beat CHI last week, so what! They should beat CHI, they stink. But, TB QB Baker Mayfield is looking more and more comfortable in the position each passing week. I think TB will be pumped for this game. L7 PHILLY vs TB, PHILLY 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. PHILLY 8-11 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 7-3 ATS AWAY on MNF. PHILLY 12-3 ATS on MNF off SU win. PHILLY 24-35 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PHILLY 31-43 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PHILLY 3-13 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 8-2 ATS as a FAV >5pts w/rest. TB 4-7-1 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. TB 8-1 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. TB 8-11-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TB 24-29-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TB 32-32 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. I don’t see PHILLY rushing for 259yds in this game. I see a TB DEF making some plays and this game going down to the wire with PHILLY winning by a fg. Mayfield has to stick to the program and take what the DEF gives him. He gets in trouble when he tries to make things out of nothing. If he plays smart he can win. I like TB with the points and the HOME crowd will be loud.

THE PICK: TB+5 ½

Monday September 25^th, 2023 8:15pm

Los Angeles Rams (1-1), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                         LAR+2

As I said LW, CINNCY QB Joe Burrows does not look 100% and as we found out, he is not. I liked BALT+3 ½ for just that reason and BALT delivered. Burrows is still not 100% and after having missed all of training camp, his timing is off. The LAR looked good in the 1^st half @HOME vs SF but SF made their adjustments and beat LAR, 30-23. I liked SF-8 but LAR HC Sean McVay had LAR kick a meaningless fg with :04 on the clock to make the final score 30-23. Did McVay have LAR+8? The LAR are playing better than expected and rookie WR Puka Nacua has been a nice surprise while WR Cooper Kupp is out. L4 LAR vs CINNCY, LAR 1-3 SU buut 2-1-1 ATS. LAR 6-10 ATS on MNF. LAR 3-4 ATS AWAY on MNF. LAR 12-10 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LAR 21-33-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAR 28-31-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAR 10-1-2 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. CINNCY 3-3 ATS as a HF on MNF. CINNCY 11-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 19-31-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CINNCY 16-29 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CINNCY 20-19-2 ATS aft an SU loss & playing @HOME. CINNCY 4-10 ATS @HOME off SU DIV loss. CINNCY 6-0 ATS L6 off BB SUATS losses. The DEF for CINNCY has been a problem too and they are not stopping anyone. Look for forced turnovers by the LAR DEF as they put pressure on Burrow. I like LAR here as it should be a good game with LAR winning by a fg.

THE PICK: LAR+2