2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 13
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 13 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYE: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens
Thursday November 30th, 2023 8:15pm
Seattle Seahawks (6-5), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (8-3), (8-3) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (5-0) ATS SEA+9
On TNF, SEA was @HOME vs SF. SEA lost on both sides of the ball, 31-13. It was SF 24-3 at the half and SEA was playing catchup for most of the game. SF was dominant and the SF DEF didn’t let SEA do anything. SEA QB Geno Smith was sacked 6x. The only td that SEA got was a PICK6 mistake by SF. Other than that it was just 2fgs. On Thanksgiving, DAL was dominant vs WASH but it was DAL 14-10 in the 2nd qtr and it looked like WASH may make a game out of this. But, DAL answered with a td to make the score DAL 20-10 and WASH went flat in the 2nd half while DAL turned up the heat for 25 more points. DAL QB Dak Prescott passed for 331yds, 4tds, 0INTS, 0fumbles and was sacked 0x. It was like he had all day to throw the ball. WASH even threw a PICK6 to top off the scoring at DAL 45-10. DAL looked strong on both sides of the ball and WASH had no answers. L11 SEA vs DAL, SEA 6-5 SU & 5-6 ATS. SEA 10-4 ATS on TNF. SEA 5-7 ATS after TNF. SEA 6-2 ATS after TNF vs .500> opp. SEA 10-7-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SEA 36-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. SEA 47-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 11-6 ATS after SF. SEA 4-12 ATS before SF. SEA 14-5 ATS off div HOME gm vs non-div opp. SEA 11-2 ATS vs .500> non div conf opp. DAL 6-7 ATS L13 on TNF. DAL 1-2 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. DAL 9-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DAL 32-46-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DAL 31-36-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. DAL 15-2 ATS @HOME of BB SUATS wins. DAL 28-9-1 ATS as a FAV off BB SUATS wins. DAL 14-3 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU loss. DAL 5-0 ATS L5 after Thursday gm. DAL 3-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts. SEA is coming off a blowout loss at HOME. SEA has one impressive win and that was wk 2 @DET. Their other wins are vs CAR, @NYG, vs ARZ, vs CLEV, vs WASH. The CLEV win was vs a 2nd string QB and there was an INT late off a deflected pass. Their losses are vs LAR, @CINNCY, @BALT, @LAR & vs SF. DAL has a knack for beating bad teams and losing to good teams. DAL has three losses. They are @ARZ, @SF & @PHILLY. DAL beats up on bad teams, losses to good teams and an occasional bad team. But at HOME, DAL is another team that goes into high gear. DAL #3 TOT DEF. DAL has 12INTS & 37 sacks. SEA QB Geno Smith has been sacked 27x this season. That is not too many as compared to some others and he has cut down on his fumbles, three. Geno has not looked as good as he did in 2022. His numbers are down and he has become a little predictable. SEA RB Kenneth Walker is questionable for this game for this game so we’ll see what’s up. But DAL #13 RUSH DEF may not matter. SEA is in a bounceback mode but they are not playing some crappy team playing out the string. DAL is fighting for position in the playoffs and wants every win it can get. Right now, the way DAL has been playing at HOME, you have to like them here. Lay the points, because DAL should win by 14pts.
THE PICK: DAL-9
Sunday December 3rd, 2023 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @Tennessee Titans (4-7), (5-6) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS TENN+1
LW, the TENN DEF held on as the OFF got a little stagnated. TENN @HOME was up 17-3 at the half vs CAR but did not score another point going forward. CAR scored a td in the 3rd qtr to make the score, TENN 17-10. TENN had 4possessions in the 2nd half and punted 4x. That cannot happen if they want to win football games. Anything could happen in a one score game. LW, INDY @HOME was in a dogfight with TB. With the score INDY 27-20 and TB driving, the INDY DEF stripped TB QB Baker Mayfield and recovered the ball for the win, 27-20. INDY was up 20-10 but let TB creep back into the game. L16 INDY @TENN, INDY 11-5 SU & 7-7-1 ATS 1PICK’EM. L19 TENN vs INDY, ROAD 10-7-1 ATS 1NL. INDY 11-11 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 10-10-3 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. INDY 38-38-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. INDY 36-34-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 35-29-2 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. INDY 10-8-1 ATS L19 as a div ROAD FAV. TENN 17-10 ATS L27 as a HOME DOG. TENN 8-11-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TENN 38-38 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 31-33-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN 28-31-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 9-18 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 1-9 ATS off SU non-conf HOME win. These two teams played in wk 5 @INDY with INDY winning 23-16. In that game, INDY RB Jonathan Taylor rushed 6x for 18yds. It was his 1st game of the season. INDY RB Zack Moss was the star and rushed for 165yds & 2tds on 23 carries. TENN RB Derrick Henry was held to 43yds on 13 carries. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor will not be available for this game due to a broken thumb that is being surgically repaired. Up until Taylor came back, Moss was the starter, carrying the load for INDY and rushing well. Also in that game, Ryan Tannehill was the QB for TENN. Will Levis is the starter now. INDY QB Gardner Minshew came in for an injured Anthony Richardson. The win in wk5 for INDY broke a 7game losing streak vs TENN. TENN has not be able to sustain a 2game winning streak at any time this season. In their three wins it has been followed by a loss. INDY #11 RUSH OFF vs TENN #15 RUSH DEF. TENN has been a complete disappointment this season after a 7game losing streak that closed out the 2022 season. So far they are 4-14 in their last 18 games and it hasn’t looked pretty. TENN needs to open up the OFF and spread it out so that opposing DEFs are not right on top of them. I am liking TENN to avoid the series sweep here and show that there is still some fight in them. INDY has been a scrappy bunch but TENN needs to win.
THE PICK: TENN+1
Los Angeles Chargers (4-7), (4-7) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (2-9), (2-9) ATS, (1-5) HOME, (1-5) ATS NE+6
LW, NE @NYG was a game that had a lot of bad plays from both sides. But it seemed that NE played worse in a 10-7 loss. NE QB Mac Jones started but after 2INTs, he was replaced by Bailey Zappe in the 2nd half. He could do no better and had 1INT that set up a fg that was the difference in the game. NE had a chance to tie the game at the end with a 35yd attempt but it went wide and so has the NE season. NE was able to rush the ball for 147yds & 1td on 31 carries. But it wasn’t enough. The 3turnovers by NE put any momentum that NE had back on the shelf. LW, LAC was @HOME vs BALT. Did anyone think that LAC was going to win this game? BALT won 20-10 and it seemed like BALT was just toying with LAC. The LAC DEF gave up 187yds rushing & 1td on 35 carries. While the LAC rushing game was stopped cold by the BALT DEF. LAC had 3lost fumbles and 1INT but QB Justin Herbert did his best but, it was too much to overcome as BALT scored a late td to open up the game and the score 20-10. The BALT DEF also sacked Herbert 3x. L9 LAC vs NE, NE 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS. LAC 13-16-2 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 36-32-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 37-28 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 6-12-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 4-13 ATS L17 vs NE. LAC 9-0 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. LAC 11-7 ATS before DEN. NE 6-8 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. NE 24-17-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 37-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 16-9-1 ATS vs AFC WEST. NE 11-3 ATS @HOME after allowing 10<pts. NE 6-7 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU losses. NE 18-7 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. LAC HC Brandon Staley is dead man walking but he is the only one who doesn’t know it. If he is not gone after the season, LAC will just get worse. Both of these teams are desperate for a win. LAC has lost three in a row while, NE has lost four in a row. The only prize for NE is that there are in a race for the 2024 #1 Draft Pick. I would really be surprised if NE HC Bill Belichick is not the HC in 2024 because he has brought a lot of winning to NE. But, stranger things have happened. Neither of these teams are going anywhere fast but on paper, LAC is very talented. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always transfer to the field. LAC needs an OFF explosion and the only AWAY game that they have done that is @NYJ. NYJ has a good DEF but, the DEF eventually gets tired from being on the field all game. NE #8 TOT DEF w/#7 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. LAC needs to attack NE from all sides. LAC has a worse PASS DEF, LAC #32 PASS DEF but NE has a situation where they don’t have a reliable QB right now that could read the DEF. Maybe they will get one in the draft. LAC LB Khalil Mack had 2sacks vs BALT which brings his total of 3sacks against good teams and 10 sacks vs crappy teams. He should have a field day this SUN @NE. In the past, LAC has played terrible vs NE but that was when LAC had QB Philip Rivers and NE was kicking everyone’s ass. Lay the points here as NE losses another one but is getting closer to the #1 PICK.
THE PICK: LAC-6
Detroit Lions (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (5-6), (3-7-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (0-4) ATS NO+4
LW on Thanksgiving DET@HOME got a big surprise from visiting GB. GB scored a td on their opening possession and never looked back. They went full force on DET and made DET look foolish all over the field. DET was down 20-6 in the 1st qtr by way of a DET QB Jared Goff fumble and that was almost all that GB needed in a 29-22 win. Goff had 3lost fumbles which were turned into 7pts by GB. GB seemed to move up and down the field very easily vs a highly touted DET DEF that seemed to be somewhere else. DET did not sack GB QB Jordan Love at all and it seemed he had plenty of time to dissect the DET secondary where he threw 3tds and 0turnovers. DET played catchup from the opening possession and couldn’t stop GB whether in the air or on the ground. LW, NO lost a game that they could have and should have won. NO had a chance to stay above .500 and secure 1st place in the NFC SOUTH. But in their game @ATL, they let ATL take control of the game and played catchup to no avail. It didn’t help that NO QB Derek Carr threw a PICK6 that dug a hole early for NO that they couldn’t get out of. It didn’t help either that NO RB Taysom Hill had a fumble that ATL turned into a td. Miscues and fgs led to a 24-15 NO loss to ATL. Also, NO did not get to ATL QB Desmond Ridder 1x. NO couldn’t connect on the 2INTs by Ridder. L9 DET vs NO, NO 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS. DET 9-5 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. DET 10-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 21-23 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 33-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. DET 3-13 ATS as a ROAD FAV off div gm. DET 6-14-1 ATS after div HOME gm. DET 11-5 ATS AWAY off DD ATS loss. DET 11-7-1 ATS w/rest. NO 8-7-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. NO 8-10-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NO 27-43-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 29-26-4 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NO 17-9 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NO 9-12 ATS before CAR. NO 15-10-1 ATS after SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. NO 11-3 ATS @HOME off SU loss vs non-div conf opp. NO 15-3 ATS vs .666> conf opp. NO 17-2 ATS as a DOG vs .666>opp. NO 7-8 ATS after ATL. DET is on a bit of a bounceback after almost losing @HOME to CHI then losing on Thanksgiving @HOME to GB. They are still atop the NFC NORTH but need to keep playing strong if they want to have a HOME playoff game and go deep into the playoffs. DET #6 RUSH OFF vs NO #23 RUSH DEF. Now NO faces a DET team that is pissed off and looking to get back on track. DET needs a game that they win BIG. The DEF needs to play BIG here and not let NO get comfortable. They need to put pressure on Carr so that he makes mistakes. NO DE Cam Jordan did not play last week but we will see if he plays this week. DET cannot let him be destructive. Also, a BIG part of the NO secondary, CB Marshon Lattimore is out, so DET needs to take advantage of that as well. Lay the points here as DET gets back on track.
THE PICK: DET-4
Atlanta Falcons (5-6), (5-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ New York Jets (4-7), (4-6-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS NYJ+2 ½
LW on Black Friday MIA @NYJ was a game that was scheduled when Rodgers was the presumed QB for NYJ. NYJ could have played a better game but the nail in the coffin was the PICK6 by MIA of the NYJ Hail Mary right before halftime. This put the score at MIA 17-6 and that was really the end of the game. MIA rushed for 167yds &2tds on 37 carries and NYJ scored a dummy td in the 4th qtr. The final score was MIA 34-13. NYJ QB Tim Boyle actually played better spreading the ball around to eight different receivers but it didn’t matter as NYJ were playing catchup 1:26 left in the 1st qtr. The game was actually MIA 10-6 because MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa threw an INT that was returned for a td by NYJ DB Brandin Echols. LW, the DEF for ATL came up BIG early and they were able to coast to a victory vs NO, 24-15. The ATL DEF had a PICK6 which put NO in a hole early that they did not recover. On the OFF side, ATL rushed for 228yds &1td on 41 carries, the NO DEF had no answer. ATL runs heavy because they do not have complete faith in QB Desmond Ridder. He threw 2INTS vs NO. Fortunately, NO did not turn them into points. But the star for ATL was RB Bijan Robinson who rushed for a td and caught a td in the win. NO had no answer. L5 ATL vs NYJ, ATL 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. ATL 8-13 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 34-32-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 39-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 9-10 ATS before TB. ATL 6-2 ATS as a non-conf FAV. ATL 1-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 7-13 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 1-11 ATS vs non-conf opp off DD SU loss. ATL 1-9 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts. NYJ 25-27-1 ATS L43 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 11-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYJ 47-40-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 27-40-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYJ 10-18 ATS off SU div loss vs non-div opp. NYJ 8-6-1 ATS after MIA. NYJ have a four game losing streak. In that span, they have been blown out three out of the four games. They have not scored more than 13pts in any of those games. In fact, in their only win in the last five games, they scored 13pts vs NYG in an OT win, 13-10. This is a game that NYJ can win. ATL is a team that only has a couple of guys to worry about. If the NYJ DEF can stop ATL RB Bijan Robinson, they will win this game. If he is able to run wild like he did vs NO, NYJ will lose this game, it’s that simple. NYJ #6 PASS DEF. However, NYJ DEF cannot forget about ATL WR Drake London who is pretty good too. I like NYJ here because they can win this game if they show some sort of OFF going forward. The O-LINE must give some kind of protection and open up some running lanes. They don’t have to be spectacular, they just have to be decent. I like NYJ here also because ATL is terrible on the road.
THE PICK: NYJ+2 ½
Arizona Cardinals (2-10), (5-7) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS ARZ+5 ½
LW, ARZ @HOME had a lead on LAR 8-7 and then LAR scored 30straight pts before ARZ got a dummy td to make the score a little bit closer at 37-14. The DEF for ARZ couldn’t stop LAR whether it was in the air or on the ground. ARZ gave up 228yds rushing & 1td on 33 carries. This helped LAR QB Matthew Stafford pick apart the ARZ DEF for 4tds. LW, PITT was in a dogfight @CINNCY. This shouldn’t have been close because CINNCY is w/o Burrow @QB. But PITT made it hard for themselves. PITT was down 7-3 at the half but made some adjustments and scored 1td & 2fgs while giving up just 3pts late in the game. The final was PITT 16-10 but it should have been a wider margin of victory for PITT. This was the 1st game without OC Matt Canada, so it may have been an adjustment. But this week, they should open up the OFF and keep ARZ guessing. L4 ARZ vs PITT, PITT 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. ARZ 11-5 ATS since 2007 before their bye. ARZ 47-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 30-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. ARZ 9-6 ATS after LAR. ARZ 18-5 ATS off BB SUATS losses. PITT 10-13 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PITT 45-30-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. PITT 50-39-3 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PITT 6-8-1 ATS after CINNCY. PITT 12-21 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. PITT 0-6 ATS L6 off SU div ROAD win vs opp off DD SU loss. Would ARZ RB James Connor like to have a big game here in his return to PITT? I certainly would. But for ARZ to keep this game close, they have to play smart and keep the PITT DEF guessing. PITT LB TJ Watt is having a big year and has 13.5 sacks. I’m sure that he would like to add to that total. The DEF for ARZ has to put pressure on PITT QB Kenny Pickett who seems to fold up under pressure. The key for PITT here is to keep ARZ QB Kyler Murray in the pocket. Murray rushed 1x for 2yds and a td during the 1st qtr but, after that zilch. If PITT gets out to a big lead, Murray is certainly not running. PITT has something to play for here and is keeping pace in the AFC for a playoff spot. PITT is in a tie with CLEV and needs to keep winning. ARZ has been terrible on the road and only covered in the 1st game of the season @WASH. Lay the points here as the PITT OFF needs to get going and the DEF needs stops. PITT should win by a td. Also, ARZ #30 RUSH DEF will not stop a PITT OFF that has suddenly found a run game to help out Pickett. PITT cannot afford to lose this game to ARZ.
THE PICK: PITT-5 ½
Carolina Panthers (1-10), (2-8-1) ATS, (0-6) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Tamp Bay Buccaneers (4-7), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CAR+5 ½
LW, TB had their chances @INDY but TB QB Baker Mayfield doesn’t know how to handle the ball. With the score INDY 27-20, and TB having one last drive, Mayfield fumbled the ball away and INDY recovered. That was the game. I honestly felt that this was a winnable game for TB and that they should have been able to pick apart the INDY DEF. But someone forgot to tell Mayfield & the TB DEF. The TB DEF gave up 155yds rushing & 3tds on 27carries. Also, INDY was 3 of 4 on 4th down. LW, CAR @TENN, CAR dug themselves a hole 17-3 and tried to climb back up but, to no avail. CAR scored a td on their 1st possession in the 2nd half and then punted 3x and turned the ball over on downs. Was the TENN DEF so great? CAR QB Bryce Young was sacked 4x and had 1lost fumble which TENN did convert into a td. This was a game that CAR could win but I liked TENN-3 ½ . TENN was due. CAR WR Adam Thielen continues to lead this team in receptions & yards but only had 1 catch for 2yds in this game. Look for him to have a bigger game this week. L16 CAR @TB, CAR 8-8 SU & 9-7 ATS. L32 CAR vs TB, FAV 19-13 ATS. L21 CAR vs TB, ROAD 13-8 ATS. L12 TB vs CAR, TB 8-4 ATS. CAR 11-12 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CAR 32-25 ATS AWAY in DEC. CAR 32-22 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 39-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 3-12 ATS before NO. CAR 2-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4>pts vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 5-18 ATS AWAY vs opp off SUATS loss. CAR 10-16 ATS vs div opp off non-div gm. TB 29-34-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. TB 34-36-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. TB 28-32-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TB 2-15 ATS as a FAV off BB SU losses. TB 5-9-1 ATS before ATL. TB 3-7-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 8-3 ATS vs <.400 div opp. Every team gets some kind of bump up after an HC is fired. I see CAR playing well in this game even though it is the same team that lost @TENN last week. The new interim HC for CAR is Special Teams coach Chris Tabor. CAR needs to get their running game going so that Young doesn’t feel he needs to win the game by himself. Look for CAR to establish a run game this week. TB is just a mess and you don’t know which team will show up on SUN. TB #27 TOT DEF w/TB #9 RUSH DEF & TB #31 PASS DEF. The DEF for TB can be beat but someone on the CAR DEF has to cover TB WR Mike Evans. This guy seems to be open a lot and catches everything. I like this to be a close game because TB doesn’t scare anyone and CAR will get that one game boost after a change in command. After that, they can go back to being awful. I didn’t say CAR would win, just that they will keep it close.
THE PICK: CAR+5 ½
Miami Dolphins (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-8), (5-7) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (0-5) ATS WASH+9 ½
LW, on Black Friday @NYJ, the score was MIA 10-6 after MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa threw an inadvertent PICK6. Then TUA threw another INT and NYJ set up for a Hail Mary. The Hail Mary was returned for a 99yd td and the score was 17-6 and the game was relatively over. MIA went on to win 34-13 with some OFF putout in the 2nd half and the NYJ got their next td when the game was already 27-6. LW on Thanksgiving, the score was DAL 14-10 and I honestly thought that WASH would just keep the game close. I didn’t think they would win but give DAL a test. DAL went on to score 31 more points and ended with a blowout 45-10. WASH gave up 25pts in the 4th qtr which included a PICK6. The WASH DEF didn’t even sack DAL QB Dak Prescott 1x. He seemed like he had all day to pick the WASH DEF apart, he did. L4 MIA vs WASH, MIA 2-2 SU but 3-0-1 ATS. MIA 8-8 ATS L16 as a ROAD FAV. MIA 9-15 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. MIA 26-55 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 26-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 22-27 ATS L49 in DEC. MIA 5-5 ATS L10 after NYJ. MIA 12-15 ATS off DIV ROAD gm. MIA 12-8-1 ATS w/rest. MIA 9-1 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500 opp. WASH 5-11 ATS since 2007 before their bye. WASH 18-20 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. WASH 41-37 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 24-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. WASH 6-15 ATS w/rest. WASH 14-8 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 5-12 ATS off BB SU losses vs non-div opp. WASH 13-19 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 14-15 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400> opp. WASH 11-6 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600> opp. WASH 5-15 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. WASH hasn’t beaten anyone impressive and they have only played PHILLY tough but lost both times. Other than that the season has been a loss. Trading DEs Young & Sweat didn’t help the team’s cause and actually set them back. MIA #1 TOT OFF w/ #2 RUSH OFF & #1 PASS OFF vs WASH #29 TOT DEF w/#17 RUSH DEF & # #30 PASS DEF. WASH is facing an OFF that at times scores at will. The only way MIA loses this game or doesn’t win by a blowout is if Tua laughs too much during the plays and it affects his passes. WASH has a lot of decisions to make in the off-season. The O-LINE for WASH has taken a beating & QB Sam Howell has been sacked 55x. He is on pace for being sacked over 70x. You can’t win games if your QB is constantly under pressure. Plus, he has 13INTS which also says that while under pressure, he is throwing the ball up for grabs. MIA has to take it to WASH early and often because they are keeping pace with other teams in the AFC. I see this game as a blowout for MIA and there is no bounceback for WASH even though they have had time to rest since the game @DAL. Lay the points here and MIA should win BIG. I see 2INTS & 3 sacks for Howell.
THE PICK: MIA-9 ½
Sunday December 3rd, 2023 4:00pm
Denver Broncos (6-5), (4-7) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Houston Texans (6-5), (5-6) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS DEN+3 ½
LW, HOU @HOME came within a hair of tying the game with the JAGS at 24-24. HOU tried a 58yd fg with time expiring and it just hit the crossbar and bounced back. JAGS won 24-21. If it went a few more inches it was probably good and the game would have went into OT. This game had JAGS taking a 10-0 lead and HOU was playing catchup but, to no avail. HOU actually led this game 14-13 but the next drive by JAGS resulted in a td. It was great to see two young QBs in a dogfight but I thought HOU would come out victorious. LW, DEN was @HOME vs CLEV. I didn’t think DEN would come out strong because CLEV was playing for playoff position. DEN didn’t let up and was never trailing in this game thanks to a DEF that was persistent and stopped CLEV from turning the game around. In the 2nd half, DEN was able to convert two CLEV fumbles into 10pts and also sacked CLEV QB PJ Walker in the endzone for a safety. The final score was DEN 29-12. DEN may end up in the playoffs if they keep playing like this. L9 DEN vs HOU, DEN 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS. DEN 15-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DEN 24-29-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 33-41-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 3-9-1 ATS before LAC. HOU 24-21 ATS @HOME in DEC. HOU 12-18-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. HOU 9-6-2 ATS after JAGS. HOU 3-11 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. HOU 25-15-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600< opp. DEN is looking mighty good recently and people are wondering if they have turned things around. They are playing a lot better than they did earlier in the season. DEN has won five games in a row and don’t have that tough of a schedule the rest of the season. HOU is playing better earlier than expected and QB CJ Stroud is leading the way. Russell Wilson looks a lot better than he did last season or even earlier this season and the DEN DEF has stepped up tremendously. The run game for DEN has gotten better to the point that Wilson doesn’t feel he has to win on his won. HOU comes with a balanced OFF attack but DEN has to shut things down like they did vs CLEV. The DEN DEF has to get to Stroud. I like this to be a close game with DEN either keeping it close or winning outright. Take DEN and the points.
THE PICK: DEN+3 ½
Cleveland Browns (7-4), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (5-6), (6-5) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (3-2) ATS CLEV+3 ½
LW, CLEV @ the all of sudden resurgent DEN team was a disaster waiting to happen. DEN QB Russell Wilson looked like the Wilson of old and CLEV had no answers. The DEF for CLEV didn’t look good as DEN scored from the redzone 3x and CLEV was trailing 14-6 at the half. The closest CLEV came was trailing 14-12 in the 3rd qtr and then the DEN DEF stopped any CLEV OFF threats. CLEV fumbled 2x in the 2nd half, turned the ball over on downs and QB PJ Walker was tackled in the endzone for a safety. The two CLEV fumbles resulted in 10pts by DEN. LW, LAR was in full control @ARZ. LAR QB Matthew Stafford threw 4tds & RB Kyren Williams rushed for 143yds & caught 6passes for 61yds & 2tds. After ARZ was leading 8-7 early in the game, LAR scored 30 straight points before ARZ got a dummy td late in the 4th qtr to make the score a little closer at 37-14. The DEF for LAR sacked ARZ QB Kyler Murray 4x while Stafford was touched. ARZ played catchup the whole game and punted 5x while LAR punted 2x. L4 CLEV vs LAR, CLEV 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS. CLEV 8-20-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 27-30 ATS AWAY in DEC. CLEV 34-40 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CLEV 18-22-1 ATS L41 vs NFC. CLEV 10-9-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. LAR 29-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 37-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 19-7 ATS as a FAV after scoring 35>pts. LAR 7-6 ATS after ARZ. Right now, Joe Flacco is poised to start this game @LAR. He is about mobile as the statue of Liberty. Why PJ Walker is not starting is a mystery. CLEV QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was knocked from the game and diagnosed with a concussion after the game @DEN. PJ Walker knows the CLEV OFF and should be able to muster out a win @LAR, Flacco no. CLEV is still in the playoff picture and has a remaining schedule that should net them at least 10 wins for the season, if not more. They slipped a little last week because they got away from their game plan and tried to razzle dazzle the surging DEN team. CLEV DE Myles Garrett left the game but said that he was OK and will be ready for this game. He has not practiced all week. CLEV needs a BIG game from him. CLEV #1 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. The CLEV DEF didn’t look sharp last week and let DEN rush for 169yds & 2tds on 39 carries. CLEV is on a bounceback and needs to win to stay in the higher seeds and a possible HOME game in the playoffs. I like CLEV to run the ball well here because CLEV #3 RUSH OFF vs LAR #18 RUSH DEF. I originally liked CLEV here with Walker as their QB but Flacco is not the guy. He gets sacked a lot and is not mobile. Take LAR and lay the points.
THE PICK: LAR-3 ½
San Francisco 49ers (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1), (7-3-1) ATS, (5-0) HOME, (2-2-1) ATS PHILLY+2 ½
LW, PHILLLY did the impossible. At HOME, they were down 17-7 at the half to BUFF. They found a way to come back and hit a 59 yard fg to send it to OT at 31-31. In OT BUFF kicked a fg and the PHILLY stormed down the field and PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts scampered into the endzone for a 37-34 OT win. It was a battle back and forth but the football gods were on PHILLY’s side. PHILLY rushed for 185yds & 2tds on 32carries in this battle. But the big play was in the 4th qtr, the 3rd & 15 from the BUFF 29 yd line as Hurts threw a perfect pass in the endzone that was caught by PHILLY WR Olamide Zaccheaus in the corner of the endzone for the td. He was so covered but found a way to catch the ball. On TNF, SF had an easy time with SEA @SEA. The final score was SF 31-13 but it wasn’t even that close. SEA scored one td on PICK6 from SF QB Brock Purdy and the other points were off 2fgs. It was SF 24-3 at the half and SEA got as close as 24-13 before SF scored their last td in the 4th qtr to make it 31-13. SF DEF sacked SEA QB Geno Smith 6x and created 2turnovers. SF rolled up almost 400yds of OFF and Purdy spread the ball around to eight different receivers. L10 SF vs PHILLY, SF 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS. SF 15-13 ATS L28 as a RAOD FAV. SF 13-15 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SF 29-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 37-45-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 9-3 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. SF 9-16 ATS w/rest. SF 3-9 ATS w/rest vs conf opp. SF 1-10 ATS AWAY after SU div ROAD win. SF 7-2 ATS w/non-div revenge vs >.400 opp. SF 1-10 ATS w/rest vs opp off BB SU wins. SF 6-4 ATS off SU div ROAD win. PHILLY 9-11 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. PHILLY 8-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 37-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 33-22 ATS as a DOG in DEC. PHILLY 7-17 ATS L24 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 8-8 ATS before DAL. PHILLY 0-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. PHILLY 12-19 TS vs .666> conf opp. This is a revenge game for the 2022 NFC Championship game when Purdy got hurt and PHILLY won 31-7. Purdy is looking better now then he did last year and when the SF OFF gets going, no team can stop them. Both teams have prolific OFFs. SF #1 TOT OFF w/#7 RUSH OFF & #8 PASS OFF. PHILLY #8 RUSH OFF & #13 PASS OFF. PHILLY has the unstoppable TUSH PUSH. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is a very smart QB and is more mobile than Purdy. Both DEFs are tough too. SF #5 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF. PHILLY #19 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #29 PASS DEF. PHILLY’s PASS DEF may not be TOP 10 but they make plays when they need them. For SF, adding DE Chase Young was very good because now DE Joey Bosa doesn’t get double teamed. Big revenge factor for SF here and they will be ready. PHILLY may be tired from the OT game and they play DAL next week. PHILLY has found a way to win every week and beat great teams and cover. This game could come down to the wire but I like SF to win by more than a fg.
THE PICK: SF-2 ½
Sunday December 3rd, 2023 8:20pm
Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (5-6), (4-7) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS GB+6
LW on Thanksgiving, GB took it to DET @DET, 29-22. From the opening kickoff, GB QB Jordan Love was on fire with a 53yard pass. A few plays later GB had a 7-0 lead. GB would lead 20-6 in the 1st qtr and they never looked back. The GB DEF forced 3fumbles by DET QB Jared Goff which turned into an early td but it set the tone. DET was playing catchup, unsuccessfully. GB did not turn the ball over and coasted to a nice win. Can they do it again? LW, KC was a FAV-9 @LV. I was confident that after losing on MNF @HOME to PHILLY after leading 17-7 that KC would be on the war path. They spotted LV a 14-0 lead and then KC went to work. The KC DEF stopped LV cold and only gave up a fg going forward. KC QB Pat Mahomes threw 2tds while RB Isiah Pacheco rushed for 2tds. KC added a fg for good measure and the final score was KC 31-17. The DEF for KC came up BIG in spots and stopped LV from putting up any points. However, KC did give up 123yds rushing & 1td on 23 carries. But most of that damage was done in the 1st half. L5 KC vs GB, KC 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS. KC 26-24-1 ATS L51 as a ROAD FAV. KC 10-11 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 16-13 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 13-6-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. KC 44-36-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 34-36-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 7-13 ATS after LV. KC 7-1 ATS L8 off div ATS win vs .500< opp. GB 4-6 ATS L10 as a HOME DOG. GB 11-9-1 ATS as a DOG on SNF. GB 13-6 ATS @HOME on SNF. GB 18-21 ATS as a DOG in DEC. GB 41-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 22-27-1 ATS L51 vs AFC. GB 16-8-1 ATS as a DO >2pts vs .666> opp. GB 8-10 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 14-4 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 16-8-1 ATS w/rest. GB 10-2 ATS @HOME of BB SUATS wins vs opp off SUATS win. GB 12-11-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins. GB 31-14-1 ATS after div gm. GB 11-1 ATS off SU div win vs opp off SU win. GB 9-0 ATS @HOE vs AFC WEST. GB 8-3 ATS after DET. GB 9-2 ATS L11 as a non-div DOG. GB RB Aaron Jones was out last game and is still questionable for this game. If he does come back for this game, the GB run game will be hard to stop. GB needs to come out like fire again so that KC is playing catchup. But KC is a team that doesn’t mind playing catchup. It is sometimes holding a lead that they have trouble with. GB needs to eat up a lot of clock so that Mahomes and company are a little off their game. Was LW a fluke for GB or was it a turning point? Love is supposed to be the QB of the future for GB but, he needs to be consistent with his game and make good decisions. For GB, they their DEF needs to stop Mahomes and not give him too many options when he gets into trouble. That is when he is most dangerous. Being at HOME, I like GB to keep this game close and not for KC to blow them out should they win. I don’t see KC winning two blowouts in a row on the road. This is a winnable game for GB, they just have to continue to play the kind of football that they did vs DET, no let up.
THE PICK: GB+6
Monday December 4th, 2023 8:15pm
Cincinnati Bengals (5-6), (5-6) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3), (8-3) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (3-3) ATS CINNCY+8 ½
LW, CINNCY played well even though they were without QB Joe Burrow. CINNCY did give up over 400yds of OFF to PITT. But, CINNCY didn’t give up a lot of points and this was a one score contest for most of the game. PITT ate up a lot of clock and CINNCY was playing catchup in the 2nd half but couldn’t get any closer than 16-10. CINNCY QB Jake Browning is doing the best he can but was sacked 4x and threw 1INT. LW, JAGS were in a dogfight @HOU. This game came down to a 58yd fg by HOU that hit the crossbar and bounceback. At that moment JAGS were up 24-21 and that fg would have tied the game. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence spread the ball nicely to seven different receivers and was not sacked by HOU. He did however have an INT that HOU turned into a td that temporarily gave HOU a lead at 14-13. This was a battle back and forth but I thought HOU would prevail. JAGS pulled out a lucky win. L9 CINNCY vs JAGS, CINNCY 6-3 SU but 4-4-1 ATS. CINNCY 4-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. CINNCY 1-8 ATS AWAY on MNF. CINNCY 29-31-3 ATS AWAY in DEC. CINNCY 46-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 19-8 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 9-11 ATS after PITT. CINNCY 9-11 ATS AWAY off BB SU losses. CINNCY 9-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off BB SU wins. CINNCY 8-0 ATS L8 vs non-div conf opp off BB SU wins. CINNCY 6-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses. JAGS 4-1 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. JAGS 22-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. JAGS 31-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 15-4 ATS L19 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 24-13-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 9-10 ATS after HOU. JAGS 5-8 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. CINNCY is at a BIG loss without QB Joe Burrow. CINNCY WR Tee Higgins is still questionable and missed his 3rd straight game. His presence would certainly help QB Jake Browning although Browning did spread the ball around nicely to nine different receivers. But, CINNCY is a completely different team without Burrow. CINNCY has lost three straight and doesn’t look good for this one. CINNCY #32 RUSH OFF vs JAGS #4 RUSH DEF. Even with Burrow, CINNCY’s run game was lacking but that was with Burrow. This game will fall on Browning’s shoulders and the JAGS DEF will be ready to pounce, especially at HOME. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: JAGS-8 ½
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