2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 11 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Bye: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints

Thursday November 16^th, 2023 8:15pm

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3), (6-4) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS                          CINNCY+3 ½  

LW, CINNCY @HOME lost vs HOU. I think they took them for granted. But you can’t take HOU for granted and HOU won in a shootout, 30-27. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow had 2INTS that luckily were not turned into points by HOU. CINNCY WR Tyler Boyd dropped a sure td with 1:39 left that probably would have won the game for CINNCY. CINNCY got a fg out of it instead of a td. This led to the last drive by HOU that resulted in a fg at :00 to win 30-27. LW, BALT was up 24-9 vs CLEV and it looked like BALT would run away with the game until BALT let CLEV come back. BALT made some costly mistakes as they lost at the buzzer 33-31. BALT QB Lamar Jackson had a tipped ball that turned into a PICK6 and another INT that fortunately for BALT resulted in 0pts for CLEV. But for BALT it was lost opportunities and some mistakes that let CLEV creep back into this game and win it at the buzzer. L16 BALT(H) vs CINNCY, BALT 10-6 SU but 5-9-1 ATS. L29 BALT vs CINNCY, CINNCY 18-9-1 ATS 1NL. L25 BALT vs CINNCY, FAV 13-10-1 ATS 1NL. CINNCY 9-6 ATS on TNF. CINNCY 3-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. CINNCY 3-2 ATS as a DOG on TNF. CINNCY 36-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CINNCY 28-31 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CINNCY 45-37-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CINNCY 12-3-1 ATS before PITT. CINNCY 2-9 ATS as a DIV DOG >3pts off SU FAV loss. CINNCY 1-6 ATS AWAY vs >.600 div opp. BALT 8-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. BALT 5-2 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. BALT 35-30-4 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 42-33-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 31-26-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 14-6-1 ATS after CLEV. BALT 5-4 ATS as a div FAV 6<pts. BALT 2-9 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss. BALT 11-0 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .500>opp. Both of these teams are coming off surprise losses. I liked CLEV+6 because I felt strongly that they would give BALT a good fight, they did. I also liked HOU+& because I felt that CINN would win but it would be closer than the spread. For that reason I picked HOU but HOU won outright. CINNCY started out slowly and because of that, they are in a whole. BALT is the better team but at times they lose games that you just shake your head at. Their loss @HOME vs INDY was unforeseen because INDY has the gunslinger @QB, Gardner Minshew. The other two losses were @PITT & vs CLEV, division rivals. As for CINNCY, they lost @TENN, @CLEV & vs BALT besides last week vs HOU. BALT has to make sure that burrow can’t hurt them. They have to get to him over and over and can’t let him run. BALT has to shut down the run game completely and then make Burrow make mistakes. BALT has a great DEF. BALT #2 TOT DEF w/#4 PASS DEF & #11 RUSH DEF. BALT has to score early and often to put CINNCY in a hole and change their game plan. Lay the points here as BALT regroups and plays mistake free football.   

THE PICK: BALT-3 ½  

Sunday November 19^th, 2023 1:00pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS                          PITT+4

LW, PITT @HOME held off GB, 23-19. I liked PITT-3 and this game went back and forth in the 2^nd half as both teams traded 2fgs apiece. PITT kept GB from getting in the endzone at the end of the game and that was the difference here. We all know about CLEVE great comeback win LW @BALT. I liked CLEV+6 because I thought it would be a close game either way with a fg being the difference. I was impressed that CLEV stopped BALT when they needed to and set the stage for the comeback win. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was playing tough even though he hurt his ankle. L16 PITT @CLEV, PITT 9-6-1 SU but 7-9 ATS. L33 PITT vs CLEV, DOG 17-15-1 ATS. PITT 10-11 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PITT 34-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 9-13 ATS L22 AWAY in NOV. PITT 26-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PITT 34-25-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 12-19 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 23-7 ATS as a DOG vs >.500 opp. PITT 8-1-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500> opp w/revenge. PITT 14-4 ATS as a DOG 3>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. PITT 8-0 ATS L8 as a ROAD DOG <7pts off SU win vs >.500 opp. CLEV 17-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 13-14-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEV 16-22 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CLEV 5-13-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs DIV. CLEV 2-10-2 ATS as a div HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEV 3-11 ATS after BALT. CLEV 5-19-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 4-1 ATS L5 w/div revenge off SU win. CLEV 4-19 ATS off SUATS win vs .500> opp. Both teams are coming off nice wins. PITT did what they had to do to win even though they played GB. CLEV weren’t down on themselves even though they were down @BALT, 24-9. Both of these teams are in a good position for at least a wild card spot and no matter what their records, they always play each other tough. These teams played each other in wk 2 @PITT with PITT winning a squeaker 26-22. CLEV RB Nick Chubb injured his knee and is out for the season but CLEV still has a nice run game with RB Jerome Ford. PITT has all of a sudden found a run game with the RB Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren tandem. This takes a lot of pressure off of QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett gets a little nervous if it is all on him. He needs a decent run game behind him. PITT doesn’t do anything great, they just win. I like this game to be a 3pt game at best, that is why I like PITT+4. I don’t see a blowout by either team as that is usually not the case. A tight game with a fg at the end by either team to win it. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson is out for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in the game @BALT. I still like PITT with the pts.

GAME WAS ANALYZED EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHEN WATSON WAS STILL THE QB. THE SPREAD MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PITT+4 TO PITT +1. BUT I’m STAYING WITH +4       

THE PICK: PITT+4

Chicago Bears (3-7), (4-6) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Detroit Lions (7-2), (7-2) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                                            CHI+10

On TNF, CHI @HOME barely got by CAR, 16-13. CHI did run well vs CAR for 133yds & 1td but that was CAR who have the #26 RUSH DEF. CHI did not turn the ball over which is good but, they punted 6x. The CHI DEF didn’t give up an OFF td to CAR but again, that was CAR. Plus, CHI escaped this game as CAR missed a fg late in the game which would have tied it up at 16. LW, DET was in a wild one @LAC. I liked DET-1 ½ and this was my BEST BET of the WEEK. LAC gave them a run but, DET played smart and kicked a fg with :00 left to win 41-38. LAC came to play and battled DET every step of the way. DET did give up 98yds rushing to LAC but LAC is more talented than CHI. DET rushed for 200yds & 3tds on 31 carries which took a load of QB Jared Goff. DET didn’t turn the ball over and played perfect football which would have been disastrous had they gave LAC more chances on OFF. L16 DET(H) vs CHI, DET 8-8 SU & 9-6-1 ATS. L26 DET vs CHI, DET 13-11-12 ATS. L28 DET vs CHI, HOME 16-10-2 ATS. L22 DET vs CHI, FAV 10-10-2 ATS. L26 DET vs CHI, DET 13-11-2 ATS. CHI 13-7-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CHI 41-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 45-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 25-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 8-13 ATS before MINN. CHI 7-15-1 ATS 1NL w/rest. DET 8-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. DET 36-39 ATS @HOME in NOV. DET 26-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 28-27 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. DET 5-14 ATS before GB. DET 6-13 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 3-8 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU win. DET 3-8 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs div opp. DET 8-14 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 15-9 ATS L24 vs .333< opp. DET 9-1 ATS vs non-conf opp vs opp w/revenge. DET 1-5 ATS vs .500< opp w/rest. DET 8-0 ATS L8 @HOME after allowing 35>pts. 3-9 ATS L12 after scoring 40>pts. CHI plans on starting QB Justin Fields in place of Tyson Bangent. Fields is coming back from a shoulder injury that had kept him out of the lineup. DET will need to have a spotter on Fields as he tends to take off running when he sees fit.  DET #2 TOT OFF w/#4 RUSH OFF & #4 PASS OFF vs CHI #15 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. DET has to be patient but, this has blowout written all over it. With DET RBs David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs as the 1-2 punch, the CHI DEF will be mitey tired in the DOME chasing these guys. DET has to play this game better than they did vs LAC because the DET DEF gave up some big yards and some big scores. Even though this is a division game, DET is trying to keep pace for a HOME FIELD advantage. DET can’t turn the ball over. Even with Fields back in the lineup, I still like DET BIG. Fields should be rusty 1^st game back. Lay the points here as DET rolls. 

THE PICK: DET-10

Los Angeles Chargers (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (3-6), (2-7) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (1-3) ATS             GB+3

LW, LAC had their hands full with the DET OFF. They matched them in scoring but with DET getting the ball last in a 38-38 tie, it looked like DET would play for a fg to end the game. DET played very smart and made sure there was no time left on the clock for LAC to get the ball back. DET kicked a fg to win 41-38. LAC wasn’t intimidated by DET but the LAC DEF was picked apart on the ground and in the air. Neither QB was sacked in this game and it seemed as they had all the time in the world to throw the ball. LW, GB on the road was in a struggle with PITT. This game was a dogfight where the lead was going back and forth. GB had their chances to win but GB QB Jordan Love threw 2INTS at the end of the game which secured the win for PITT. Also, the GB DEF gave up 205yds rushing & 2tds on 36carries to PITT which helped PITT win 23-19. I liked PITT-3 because PITT may not do everything right, they just win. Love needs to step up his skills and lead the team because he has made some mistakes that have cost GB some wins. L4 LAC vs GB, LAC 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS. LAC 13-15-2 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 27-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 37-26-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 5-12 ATS after allowing 35>pts. GB 3-6 ATS L9 as a HOME DOG. GB 24-30-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 33-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 0-7 ATS as a DOG <5pts vs <.500 opp. GB 13-3 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 18-7 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB 8-0 ATS as a non-div DOG vs opp off SUATS loss. GB 11-7 ATS before DET. GB 8-2 ATS L10 as a non-div DOG. LAC went toe-to-toe with DET who is right now at the top of the NFC. GB is not at the top of the NFC or even the middle. The GB DEF seems to disappear at times and LAC has too many weapons on OFF and a QB that is smarter and better than most.  GB #11 TOT DEF w/ #27 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. LW, GB did keep PITT QB Kenny Pickett to 126yds passing but gave up a whopping 205yds rushing & 2tds on 36carries. The way for LAC to romp in this game is rush, rush and more rush. This will tire out the GB DEF and then it will open up the passing lanes for Herbert to drop in passes. The LAC DEF has to step up as DET picked apart the LAC DEF for 41pts and 200yds rushing. Granted the GB rushing OFF is not as good as DET’s rushing OFF but LAC can’t let them get yards on the ground. Love will be facing a LAC DEF that needs to shore up some things and is looking to get some turnovers.  I like LAC on a bounceback as they are battling for a wild car spot behind KC. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: LAC-3

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (4-0) HOME, (4-0) ATS                               LV+12

LW, LV @HOME was a DOG+1 ½ vs NYJ. LV was lucky to get the win because NYJ beat themselves with penalties and missed opportunities. This was a seesaw battle between two teams going nowhere and LV almost lost it at the end when a Hail Mary pass was dropped by NYJ WR Garrett Wilson in the endzone. LV came out ahead 16-12. LV RB Josh Jacobs is in full swing as he had his 1^st 100+ yd rushing game this season. He had 98yds vs NYG the week before. LV is moving forward with QB Aidan O’Connell and seeing what he can do under interim HC Antonio Pierce. Pierce is now 2-0. MIA is coming off a bye. But before the bye they were in Germany playing technically @KC. MIA dug themselves a hole of 21-0 with a fumble by WR Tyreek Hill that was returned for a td. But the DEF for MIA made some adjustments and stopped the KC OFF cold. KC didn’t score another point and with the score KC 21-14 and MIA driving late in the game, MIA with a 4^th down had a miss snap and couldn’t get the pass off for a 21-14 loss. They were close to the KC endzone but couldn’t get the pass off for the possible tie. MIA is pissed. L11 MIA vs LV, MIA 8-3 SU & 7-3-1 ATS. LV 39-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LV 41-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 40-36 TAS L76 as a ROAD DOG. LV 2-18 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. LV 7-1 ATS as a non-div DOG 10>pts. LV 14-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs conf opp. LV 11-6 ATS as a DOG vs non div opp 7>pts. LV 9-3 ATS vs opp w/rest. LV 0-6 ATS L6 AWAY vs AFC EAST. MIA 10-5 ATS since 2007 after their bye. MIA 39-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 34-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 11-7-1 ATS before NYJ. MIA 12-7-1 ATS w/rest. MIA 2-6 ATS before div ROAD gm. LW, LV @HOME struggled to beat the NYJ on SNF. How are they going to play AWAY vs a well rested MIA team? MIA is coming off a loss and is in bounceback mode vs a team that is currently going nowhere and is still a number of players away from being good. Who has LV beaten? Wk 1 @DEN, Wk 5 vs GB, WK 6 vs NE, WK 9 vs NYG & NYJ. None of those teams are going to the playoffs. LV has lost to WK 2 @BUFF, WK 3 vs PITT, WK 4 @LAC, WK 7 @CHI, & WK 8 @DET. Do you see a pattern here? MIA has lost to @BUFF, @PHILLY & technically @KC. But the OFF gets going against bad teams. MIA #1 TOT OFF w/#2 RUSH OFF & #1 PASS OFF vs LV #18 TOT DEF w/#29 RUSH DEF & #8 PASS DEF. The goal for MIA should be to score early & often and not turn the ball over while creating turnovers and more opportunities for the MIA OFF. Lay the points here as MIA is perfect at HOME and will continue this week to do so.  

THE PICK: MIA-12  

New York Giants (2-8), (2-7-1) ATS, (1-5) AWAY, (1-5) ATS @ Washington Commanders (4-6), (5-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (0-4) ATS       NYG+10

LW, NYG @DAL were outmanned, out gunned and destroyed, 49-17. I said it was going to be a blowout and it wasn’t even that close. NYG gave up 640yds of OFF. It was 28-0 at halftime and 49-10 when NYG scored a dummy td with :06 to go. NYG overplayed their hand last season and this season they have holes all over the team. A total rebuild should be in order. LW, WASH played their hearts out @SEA. SEA has a DEF that goes missing at times and it surely looked that way in the 4^th qtr. I had liked SEA-6 but WASH didn’t give up in a 29-26 loss. It was 26-26 all when SEA took the last drive and kicked a last second fg to win. L16 NYG @WASH, NYG 11-5 SU & 11-5 ATS. L29 NYG vs WASH, DOG 18-11 ATS. NYG 24-36-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 24-30-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 24-28 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 5-10-1 ATS after DAL. NYG 15-12 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 15-6 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 6-18 ATS after allowing 35.pts. NYG 17-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 12-4 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs .600<opp. WASH 22-29 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 17-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 30-35 ATS @HOME in NOV. WASH 15-7 ATS before DAL. WASH 0-4 ATS as a DD DIV FAV. WASH 14-8 ATS off DD ATS loss. WASH 0-11 ATS @HOME vs >250< conf opp. NYG are desperate for something. They have been blown out of their last two games and blown out in six of their eight losses. The fact that they beat ARZ and WASH so far is a mystery. They came back in the ARZ game and vs WASH was just lucky. WASH QB Sam Howell has been sacked 47x. He hasn’t played badly but the DEF for WASH hasn’t recovered from the losses of DE Chase Young & DE Montez Sweat. The WASH O-LINE is probably just as bad as NYG’ O-LINE. In this game, NYG needs to run the ball and run often. NYG #14 RUSH OFF vs WASH #21 RUSH DEF. This is the stat that favors NYG. I like WASH winning this game in a revenge game for their loss @NYG in wk 7, 14-7. But I don’t like the BIG SPREAD attached to it. NYG QB Tommy DeVito is getting better every week and he is looking for options but he has an O-LINE that is atrocious. He has been sacked 13x in three games. I think NYG plays smart here but comes up a little short. WASH wins this game but it is a battle. If NYG RB Saquon Barkley doesn’t play in this game due to his ankle, then it is a rout by WASH and I like WASH. If Saquon plays, I like NYG to keep it close and WASH still wins but by less than the spread. 

THE PICK: NYG+10  

Dallas Cowboys (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-8), (2-6-1) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-2-1) ATS                         CAR+10 ½  

LW, DAL @HOME blew out NYG 49-17. It wasn’t even that close as it was 28-0 at halftime and NYG scored a td with :06 left. DAL had 640yds of OFF vs NYG. By the way, I just heard DAL scored again. LOL Anyway, DAL rushed for 168yds and 3tds vs NYG who couldn’t stop a PEE WEE team at this point. I said, in my analysis that DAL would blow them out even though the spread was DAL-16. It moved to DAL-17 ½ later on. On TNF, CAR played tough @CHI. I was worried with the CAR+4 and I was right. But, I thought CHI would beat CAR by more than 4pts. CAR scored only 0 OFF tds as their OFF sputtered again. They had 2fgs and a punt return for a td. CAR QB Bryce Young did not turn the ball over but was sacked 3x. The CAR DEF didn’t even sack CHI QB Tyson Bangent 1x. What are they going to do with DAL QB Dak Prescott? L8 DAL vs CAR, DAL 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. DAL 21-13-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. DAL 49-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 29-30 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 7-9 ATS after NYG. DAL 7-13-1 ATS L21 vs NFC SOUTH. DAL 10-1 ATS as a FAV >3pts off SU win vs .333< opp. DAL 13-4 ATS off SU win vs .333< opp. DAL 12-0 ATS as a FAV 2>pts off div gm vs <.500 opp. DAL 2-8 ATS L10 after scoring 35>pts. CAR 12-13-2 ATS L27 as a HOME DOG. CAR 37-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 30-33-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 4-8 ATS w/rest vs .500> opp. DAL has not played as well on the ROAD as they have @HOME. Beating NYG & barely beating LAC after losing BIG @SF is not going to get you to a SuperBowl. DAL has lost @ARZ, @SF & @PHILLY. There are two teams that DAL may see in the playoffs. Either SF or PHILLY may have the HOME FIELD and DAL may be on the ROAD. However, DAL has not played well after a blowout win. After they blew out NYG 40-0 in wk 1, they did beat NYJ 30-10. After beating NE 38-3, DAL lost @SF, 42-10. After beating LAR, they lost @PHILLY 28-23. However, CAR is an awful team. They do not score many points as their OFF is atrocious. CAR #30 TOT OFF w/#27 RUSH OFF & #26 PASS OFF. One bright spot for the OFF is WR Adam Thielen who has 68 catches for 682yds & 4tds. He is a player that was left for dead with MINN and signed with CAR. But he is a BIG FISH in a small pond because CAR is going nowhere fast. CAR gave up 37pts, 42pts & 42pts to SEA, DET & MIA. All those games were away and MIA & DET are #1 & #2 in total OFF. SEA is #18. This is the first game of a really good team this season coming to CAR. DAL has to show that they can beat up the bad teams. DAL has to win big here because they are trying to keep pace with PHILLY. CAR #26 RUSH DEF. DAL should run the ball as much as they want and then drop in passes here and there and blow CAR out. CAR QB Bryce Young has been prone to turnovers and I expect him to commit a few here against a better DEF then he saw in CHI. DAL has to take care of business here. They cannot lose this game and it cannot be close. Lay the points here as DAL rolls.  

THE PICK: DAL-10 ½  

Tennessee Titans (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3), (6-3) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS                        TENN+7

LW, JAGS @HOME were destroyed by SF 34-3. It wasn’t even pretty as SF dominated JAGS on both sides of the ball. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence had 2INTs, was sacked 5x and had 1lost fumble, a total loss. The DEF for JAGS didn’t play well either as the JAGS secondary gave up passes to 7different SF receivers for 303yds and 3tds. Not a good day all around for JAGS. TENN didn’t do much better in a 20-6 loss @TB. TENN had 42yds rushing. TENN QB Will Levis was sacked 4x & had 1INT. He was 19 for 39 passing. The TENN DEF gave up 2tds in the air and couldn’t cover TB WR Mike Evans with a blanket. He was all over making plays. L16 JAGS(H) vs TENN, JAGS 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS. L28 JAGS vs TENN, JAGS 14-14 ATS. L32 JAGS vs TENN, DOGS 16-16 ATS. L16 JAGS vs TENN, TENN 11-5 SU & 11-5 ATS. TENN 21-31 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. TENN 38-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 33-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 8-2-1 ATS off BB Su losses vs .333>opp. JAGS 7-19 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. JAGS 24-22 ATS as a FAV in NOV. JAGS 22-23-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. JAGS 27-26 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAG 8-4 ATS after scoring 7<pts vs div opp. JAGS 2-10 ATS as a FAV 7>pts off SUATS loss. JAGS 4-7 ATS as a FAV 7>pts. JAGS 9-14 ATS as a FAV 3>pts vs .333< opp. JAGS 1-7 ATS @HOME off DD SU loss vs div. TENN has to get a better run game going so that Levis doesn’t feel like he has to win the game by himself. JAGS#5 RUSH DEF. But they gave up 144yds & 1td on 30 carries to SF. Both of these teams are coming off of blowout losses. JAGS had a bigger disappointment in that they lost on both sides of the ball @HOME to SF. TENN had their chances but not only didn’t make the right stops but, didn’t move the ball forward when they had the chance. TENN should have beaten TB. JAGS should have played better vs SF even though SF was on a mission. I like TENN here with the points because I feel it will be a closer game then the spread suggests. TENN is desperate for a win and JAGS are on the bounceback. TENN has to shore up their DEF. JAGS will probably win the game but it will be by less than seven. JAGS will win by a fg at the end of the game. I don’t see a blowout by either team and it will be tight. Turnovers will be costly in this game.

THE PICK: TENN+7  

Arizona Cardinals (2-8), (5-5) ATS, (0-5) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Houston Texans (5-4), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS                           ARZ+4

Talk about some exciting finishes. LW, HOU went toe-to-toe with CINNCY & QB Joe Burrow and beat him 30-27 on a last second fg. The HOU DEF also had 2INTS & 4sacks of Burrow. But it was a dropped pass in the endzone that spelled doom for CINNCY. They had to settle for a fg and that set up the winning fg for HOU. Things happen. LW< with ATL leading 23-22 and ARZ faced with a 3^rd & 10, Murray retreated and scrambled and got the 1^st down. If he had been sacked, ARZ would have faced a 4^th & 20. Instead they had a 1^st down and full speed ahead. ARZ drove down the field and kicked a fg with :00 left to win 25-23. ARZ did give up 184yds rushing & 2tds on 41 carries to ATL but they also rushed for 122yds & 2tds on 26 carries in the close win. L5 ARZ vs HOU, ARZ 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. ARZ 32-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 44-48 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 6-10-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. HOU 14-14-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 17-20 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 12-11 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 7-6 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 12-10 ATS before JAGS. HOU 1-7 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV off SU win. HOU 2-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs <.400 opp. You have two exciting QBs matched up against one another. HOU CJ Stroud has made believers out of people and the team has rallied around him. ARZ is not getting into the playoff but with the return of Kyler Murray, they can actually evaluate others on the team for 2024. However, the ARZ DEF needs to start making plays. They need to stop the HOU run as this complements Stroud’s passing game. ARZ #11 PASS DEF vs HOU #2 PASS OFF. A couple of INTS would be nice for ARZ in this game. I think this will be a close game as it will come down to the wire. The HOU DEF is a little lagged and gives up some big plays. A dropped pass in the endzone by CINNCY helped win the game for HOU. Kyler Murray is great at escaping and turning nothing into something. With RB James Conner back at full strength, ARZ has a fighting chance. ARZ #9 RUSH OFF vs HOU #8 RUSH DEF. A fg will determine this game and whoever has it last will get the win. That’s why I like ARZ+4. It is more than a fg and that’s where this game will end up.

THE PICK: ARZ+4

Sunday November19^th, 2023 4:00pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5), (6-3) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS           TB+11 ½   

LW, TB @HOME beat a TENN team that you ever know how they will play. This time around, TENN QB Will Levis wasn’t particularly good and the running game for TENN was stopped cold. The TB DEF stopped TENN RB Derrick Henry for 24yds. TB won the game 20-6 only giving up 2fgs. TB QB Baker Mayfield passed for 278yds, 2tds, & 1INT. The DEF for TB sacked Levis 4x. TENN had their chances but didn’t make the most of them. LW, SF went to JAGS off their bye and just dominated 34-3. The DEF for SF sacked JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence 5x, intercepted him 2x and recovered 2 fumbles. SF QB Brock Purdy had a great day throwing for 296yds, 3tds & 0INTS. SF had 0turnovers. SF was in control of this game from start to finish. I had thought JAGS would be tough and keep it close but they turned the ball over too many times to make it close. L10 TB vs SF, SF 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. TB 18-10 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TB 49-30-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. 41-30-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 16-13-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. TB 9-15-2 ATS off DD SU win. SF 28-40-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. SF 36-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 8-9 ATS L17 vs NFC SOUTH. SF 5-8 ATS @HOME off SU win vs .<500 opp. SF 13-22 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 7-15 ATS as a HOME FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 7-3 ATS L10 after allowing 10<pts. Who has TB beaten? Wk 1 @MINN, WK 2 vs CHI, WK 3 @NO, Wk 9 vs TENN. Their losses? PHILLY, DET, ATL, @BUFF & @ HOU. Do you see a pattern? TB can beat bad or mediocre teams but can’t beat any good teams. BUFF is overrated and TB had their chances. HOU had a last drive that resulted in a td but TB still gave up 39pts. SF with their full roster will blow out TB. At HOME SF scores a lot of points and doesn’t let up. Also, the DEF for SF doesn’t let up either, just ask JAGS Lawrence. They sacked him 5x and then intercepted him 2x while recovering 2fumbles. SF has to make up for lost time when they lost 3in a row. They can’t afford to take games lightly and they can’t afford injuries. They need to get everyone involved like LW and play lights out on DEF. I like laying the points here as SF should win by 2tds. Look for Mayfield to have a few turnovers himself by trying to make something out of nothing. SF #5 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. SF will be all over the field. These two teams played at SF in wk 13 with SF winning 35-7. That was with Brady as the TB QB. No revenge here.

THE PICK: SF-11 ½

New York Jets (4-5), (4-4-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-2-1) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (5-5), (3-7) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (2-4) ATS                                NYJ+7

LW, NYJ lost at LV on SNF, 16-12. Penalties and execution is what did NYJ in for this game. I liked LV+1 ½ @HOME because LV plays better @HOME than on the ROAD. NYJ could have won the game but 8penalties for 83yards stopped some big plays that kept drives going. In the end, NYJ still could have won on a Hail Mary that was dropped. But in turn LV was able to run on NYJ for 148yds which helped them keep drives alive. On MNF, BUFF cost themselves the game. I liked DEN+7 ½ because BUFF is overrated and sure enough stupid penalties and turnovers ended up costing BUFF the game, 24-22. With BUFF up 22-21, and only time for a fg, BUFF had 12 men on the field as DEN missed a winning field goal. With a second chance, DEN made the field goal and won the game, 24-22. BUFF had 2INTs and 2lost fumbles in the game as well. But, BUFF was able to get their run game going for 192yds, 2tds on 26 carries. That should work well vs NYJ. L16 BUFF(H) vs NYJ 9-7 SU & 8-8 ATS. L28 BUFF vs NYJ, NYJ 14-14 SU & 15-13 ATS. L28 NYJ vs BUFF, FAV 13-14 ATS 1PICK’EM. L13 NYJ vs BUFF, BUFF 8-5 SU & 6-7 ATS. NYJ 9-11 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYJ 28-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 37-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 26-28 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NYJ 5-12 ATS L17 off SU FAV loss. NYJ 29-28-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 0-10 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss vs conf opp. BUFF 10-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 6-11 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 4-11 ATS as a FAV <10pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 37-26-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 24-29-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. BUFF 31-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 20-16 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 7-2 ATS w/revenge vs <.500 opp. Both teams are coming off losses and both are looking to make some changes. BUFF OC Ken Dorsey was fired after the loss vs DEN. NYJ OFF has been stagnated and hasn’t scored an OFF td in a while. BUFF QB Josh Allen has been prone to turnovers his whole career and doesn’t seem to be changing. However, BUFF found some rushers other than Allen. This will help their cause as one area of the NYJ DEF that is lacking is RUSH DEF. NYJ #31 RUSH DEF. NYJ gives up a lot of yardage on the ground. DEN gave up a lot of yardage on the ground and if it weren’t for turnovers and penalties, BUFF would have and should have won the game BIG. Maybe a new interim OC for BUFF, Joe Brady may be a positive thing going forward. Usually after a team has so many turnovers and penalties, they clean it up. It was a lost opportunity for BUFF on MNF and at least for this game, they redeem themselves. Also, these two teams met in wk 1 on MNF @NYJ with NYJ winning in OT, 22-16. I liked NYJ in that game with Aaron Rodgers as the NYJ QB but, as we all know he got injured. But, NYJ still won the game and Josh Allen had 3INTs & 1 lost fumble. This is a revenge game for BUFF and they will take care of the NYJ. BUFF is a desperate for a win here and the crowd will be going crazy. Lay the points here.   

THE PICK: BUFF-7

Seattle Seahawks (6-3), (5-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (3-6), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS                          LAR+1

LW, SEA could have closed out the game @HOME vs WASH while still covering the spread, -6. But, SEA had to make it interesting and let WASH tie the game at 26 with about 1:00 left in the game. SEA drove in the last minute to kick a fg to win 29-26. There was a lot of scoring by both teams in the 4^th qtr. SEA scored 1td and 2fgs while WASH scored 2tds to just come up short. The DEFs for both teams were non-existent when they were needed most. LAR are coming off a bye. Before that they lost badly @GB, 20-3. The OFF couldn’t get anything right and LAR QB Matthew Stafford did not play due to a thumb injury. Brett Rypien, recently released was the QB in that game for LAR and he looked lost. He had 1 INT & 1 lost fumb which GB turned into 10pts. LAR was playing catchup through this whole game to no avail. L16 SEA @LAR, SEA 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS. L29 SEA vs LAR, HOME 18-11 ATS. SEA 29-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 28-21 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. SEA 35-42 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 13-21-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC WEST. SEA 4-12 ATS before SF. SEA 1-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV w/revenge. LAR 11-4-1 ATS since 2007 off their bye. LAR 9-11-1 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. LAR 17-43-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 23-42-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 20-34 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. These two teams met in Wk1 and it wasn’t pretty for SEA. LAR came in and won convincingly 30-13. The run game for LAR was the hero as the rushed for 92yds but 3tds on 40 carries. QB Matthew Stafford threw for 334yds, 0tds but no turnovers. SEA was actually leading 13-7 at the half but LAR made some adjustments and then scored 23 unanswered points in the 2^nd half. SEA came back with 4punts in 4possessions and 0pts. The DEF for SEA was a letdown as LAR scored pts on al five of their possessions in the 2^nd half. There is a little revenge factor here going for SEA. No one likes to be swept in the season series in the division. But which SEA DEF will show up? Matthew Stafford is playing in this game and he knows SEA quite well. LAR is on a 3 game losing streak with losses @DAL & vs PITT before the loss @GB. LAR is due. LAR have had a decent run game even though their two RBS are injured. LAR #17 RUN OFF & #14 PASS OFF vs SEA #20 RUN DEF & #22 PASS DEF. LAR hasn’t scored 30pts since that first week of the season @SEA and at times the OFF has been stagnated. Is this the week they break out? In the 1^st meeting, SEA QB Geno Smith was sacked 2x and the SEA run game was held in check. Can the LAR DEF do it again? I think this will be a close game and LAR wins by a fg to get off their losing streak. I don’t know which SEA team shows up week to week and I think they will lose in a close one.      

THE PICK: LAR+1

Sunday November 19^th, 2023 8:20pm

Minnesota Vikings (6-4), (7-3) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (5-0) ATS @ Denver Broncos (4-5), (3-6) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS                          MINN+2

On MNF, DEN won all the intangibles @BUFF. BUFF made mistakes that cost them the game. Penalties, especially the 12 men on the field for the winning kick hurt. Plus, BUFF QB Josh Allen 2INTS & 1 lost fumble helped DEN keep attacking BUFF. It let the DEN OFF stay on the field and get more chances at an overrated BUFF DEF. DEN QB Russell Wilson didn’t turn the ball over and actually ran for 30yds. He was able to drive DEN down the field in the last 2 minutes and kick the winning fg after BUFF was called for a penalty on a missed fg. LW, MINN @HOME jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead and sort of watched as NO made a comeback that came up a little bit short. NO QB Derek Carr was knocked out of the game with a concussion and a shoulder injury in the 3^rd qtr and Jameis Winston came in and delivered 2tds to make the game a game. But, Winston threw 2INTS on 2straight possessions that helped MINN win the game. L4 DEN vs MINN, DEN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. MINN 8-10 ATS as a DOG on SNF. MINN 8-11 ATS AWAY on SNF. MINN 34-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 36-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 8-9 SU & 10-7 ATS AWAY vs non-div outdoors. MINN 16-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 10-10 ATS before CHI. MINN 2-8 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. MINN 21-15 ATS as a DOG <6pts vs opp off SU win. DEN 15-14 ATS as a FAV on SNF. DEN 8-1 ATS vs non-div on SNF. DEN 13-7-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. DEN 44-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. DEN 32-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DEN 15-11 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 7-3 ATS as a FAV off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. DEN 2-9 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. DEN still has a long way to go before we could consider them for the playoffs. They could somehow sneak into the playoffs because LV & LAC are probably not getting in. But DEN does have some tough games ahead of them. MINN has new life now that Dobbs is at the helm. All was thought to be lost after Cousins went down but, the Dobbs pick up is looking better and better. However, MINN cannot rest on their laurels and there is still a long way to go. They cannot shoot out to a comfortable lead and then stand pat while the other team mounts a comeback. They need to stay aggressive and make sure that there are no 4^th qtr heroics by the other team. For DEN, I liked them on MNF because I said BUFF was overrated but MINN is playing smart and they are using their run game effectively so that Dobbs doesn’t feel that he has to win the game by himself. MINN needs to get their run game going vs DEN, DEN #32 RUSH DEF. BUFF rushed for almost 200yds on MNF vs DEN and lost. MINN needs to run like crazy vs DEN so that Dobbs can pick the DEN secondary apart. This game is almost a PICK’EM but, I like MINN here.

THE PICK: MINN+2

Monday November20^th, 2023 8:15pm

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2), (6-3) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS                          PHILLY+3

Before their bye PHILLY @HOME beat DAL 28-23. PHILLY toyed with DAL. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts does what he needs to do and that is win. PHILLY wanted to see if DAL could beat them. DAL then beat themselves. DAL had golden opportunities but couldn’t come through. KC beat MIA in Germany 21-14. KC had taken a 21-0 halftime lead but couldn’t do anything offensively in the 2^nd half. MIA was driving late but a bad snap for MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa ended the game for MIA. Otherwise it may have gone into OT. KC didn’t look good offensively after MIA made some defensive adjustments at halftime and didn’t let KC do anything offensively in the 2^nd half. L5 PHILLY vs KC, KC 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. PHILLY 8-8 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. PHILLY 34-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 25-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. PHILLY 8-3 ATS AWAY on MNF. PHILLY 26-16 ATS L42 vs AFC. PHILLY 17-8 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 0-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. PHILLY 1-6 ATS AWAY w/revenge vs .500> opp. KC 6-2-1 ATS L9 on MNF. KC 8-5 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. KC 7-9 ATS since 2007 coming off their bye. KC 35-50 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 30-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 10-5-1 ATS vs .700> opp. KC 14-8 ATS @HOME vs .666> non-div opp. Both teams are rested and ready for this game. However, it has been the KC DEF that has bailed out this team week after week. KC #4 TOT DEF w/ #17 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF.  KC has significantly upgraded their PASS DEF from #18 in 2022 to #5 currently. That’s why there have been so many close games for KC. But the OFF has a rush that is still lagging and can’t be heavily relied on. This game is a little revenge here for last year’s SuperBowl. PHILLY had this game circled on their schedule and right now all around, they are the better team. I like PHILLY here to win outright, unless they turn the ball over and KC capitalizes on them. But I see PHILLY football and the “TUSH PUSH” being successful on MNF.  

THE PICK: PHILLY+3