2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 5 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Bye: Cleveland Browns, LA Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, TB Buccaneers

Thursday October 5^th, 2023 8:15pm

Chicago Bears (0-4), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Washington Commanders (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS         CHI+6 ½  

LW, I liked WASH+8 ½ @PHILLY. I knew they would play them tough as I said and they came through. I even said look out for the UPSET. Well, I was very close as WASH gave it their all. WASH had their chances but PHILLY has a lot of weapons and WASH lost in OT 34-31. LW, CHI was up 28-7 before their roof fell in and lost 31-28. I liked CHI+3 ½ because when two very bad teams play, take the bad team w/the pts. CHI QB Justin Fields is terrible and looks like he really hasn’t figured out the NFL game. He has weapons around him but he needs to take what the DEF gives him and try not to make things out of nothing. L9, WASH vs CHI, WASH 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS. CHI 6-11 ATS on TNF. CHI 4-7 ATS AWAY on TNF. CHI 3-9 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 37-28-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 32-29-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 7-13 ATS before MINN. CHI 6-16 ATS vs NFC EAST. WASH 5-6 ATS on TNF. WASH 2-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. WASH 3-2 ATS since 2007 after and SU OT loss. WASH 32-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 24-21 ATS as a FAV in OCT. WASH 3-9 ATS after PHILLY. WASH 8-12 ATS as a HOME FAV >2pts vs non-div. WASH 12-17 ATS off BB SU losses. WASH 0-11 ATS @HOME vs .250< conf opp. WASH 11-1 ATS as a conf FAV 4>pts off BB SU losses. WASH 3-10 ATS as a conf FAV off div gm. WASH 2-6 ATS as a conf FAV >3pts off div gm. WASH 8-1 ATS L9 as a FAV off BB SU losses vs opp w/revenge. Whether you believe it or not WASH is not that good, yet. They are still trying to find themselves and QB Sam Howell is learning. CHI is desperate to get a win any way they can. Especially after losing the way they did last week. These two teams played in wk 6 last season @CHI with WASH winning 12-7. Could a little revenge be in order for CHI? WASH will win this game but, they will only win by a fg in a game that CHI is desperate to keep competitive. Take CHI plus the points as WASH should eek out the win.

THE PICK: CHI+6 ½

Sunday October 8^th, 2023 9:30am

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS  (London, England)           JAGS+5 ½

LW, JAGS were on a double bounceback and needed a good game to get back on track. They took care of ATL nicely. BUFF destroyed MIA in BUFF. BUFF stopped the high powered MIA OFF fro getting into a rhythm and the BUFF OFF looked for holes to get the MIA DEF off its game. The final score was BUFF 48-20. BUFF had 0turnovers while MIA had 2turnovers that were turned into 10pts by BUFF. This game was 14-14 when BUFF pulled away in the 2^nd qtr. BUFF QB Josh Allen was near perfect and didn’t have to rely on his legs to get BUFF out of trouble. He had a committee of RBs that helped him out. L12 JAGS vs BUFF, JAGS 6-6 SU & 6-6 ATS. JAGS 5-5 ATS in London. JAGS 31-37 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 27-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 12-3 ATS as a DOG <6pts after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 2-16-1 ATS before INDY. JAGS 3-9 ATS off DD SU win vs .500> opp. JAGS 4-5 ATS L9 AWAY after allowing 10<pts. JAGS 1-10 ATS as a ROAD DOG <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 2-11 ATS as a DOG 8<pts vs .700> opp off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 10-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 6-10 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. BUFF 31-31-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 28-37-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 7-2 ATS off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 8-14 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. BUFF 2-9-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. Do you think QB Josh Allen is still steaming from that loss @ JAGS in 2021 when BUFF was a heavy ROAD FAV-16? BUFF lost that game 9-6 and couldn’t do anything right. People were wondering what was wrong with BUFF. JAGS are coming off a blowout win vs ATL and BUFF is coming off a strong wing vs MIA. BUFF LB Von Miller is returning to practice this week. When he is in there, he opens it up for others because you certainly need a body blocking him, sometimes two. BUFF has the edge here and I would lay the points as BUFF rolls. JAGS are not yet in the same category as BUFF.

THE PICK: BUFF-5 ½

Sunday October 8^th, 2023 1:00pm

Houston Texans (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                                  HOU+1

Is HOU for real? They blew out PITT 30-6 and knocked their QB out. PITT’s stats are all catchup to no avail. HOU had 0tuurnovers and sacked PITT QB Kenny Pickett 3x. It was an upset and HOU delivered. ATL was beaten badly in London by JAGS 23-7. JAGS were on a double bounceback and ATL was in the way. ATL QB Desmond Ridder threw 2INTS where one of them was a PICK6. Ridder is still learning but the DEF for ATL has been keeping ATL in the games. Ridder can’t make big mistakes where his team is out of the game. L4 HOU vs ATL, HOU 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS, HOME 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. HOU 15-22 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 19-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. HOU 10-2 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 0-7 ATS L7 off BB SU wins. HOU 4-9 ATS as a DOG <10pts off SU DOG win vs .333>opp. HOU 3-11 ATS AWAY vs non-cof opp. HOU 2-9 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. HOU 2-11 ATS L13 as a non conf DOG 13<pts. ATL 8-9 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. ATL 29-36 ATS @HOME in OCT. ATL 22-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 5-2 ATS as a non-conf FAV. ATL 1-8-1 ATS as a non-div HF off SU FAV loss. ATL 4-12 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 2-9-1 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 6-17-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 0-5 ATS L5 off DD SU loss vs opp off SU DOG win. HOU QB CJ Stroud is playing well and is taking what the DEF gives him. ATL #7 TOT DEF will be a test for Stroud. This is a bounceback game for ATL as they have played well @HOME. Look for ATL RB Bijan Robinson to have a big day vs HOU #19 RUSH DEF. This will take a load off of Ridder to make something out of nothing. This game could be a shootout but I see Stroud getting his 1^st INT of the season in ATL. Also, double bounce back for ATL. I like ATL @HOME here.  

THE PICK: ATL-1

Carolina Panthers (0-4), (0-3-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Detroit Lions (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                CAR+10

LW, CAR had their chances @HOME vs MINN. But MINN was on a mission and would win the game no matter what. MINN won 21-13. CAR QB Bryce Young is learning and holding his own but the rest of the team has to get going. LW, DET beat GB handily on TNF 34-20. I liked them in this game because they are continuing where they left off at the end of last season. L8 CAR vs DET, CAR 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. CAR 9-11-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CAR 35-23 ATS AWAY in OCT. CAR 40-23 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 13-14 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 0-6 ATS AWAY off BB Su losses vs opp w/revenge. CAR 4-15 ATS off BB Su losses vs .666>opp. CAR 0-7 ATS off BB SU losses vs .666> non-div opp w/revenge. DET 23-38 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 17-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 3-5 ATS L8 as a FAV 7>pts vs non-div. DET 9-7-1 ATS w/rest. DET 11-7 ATS w/revenge off BB SUATS wins. DET 11-0 ATS L11 off DD ATS wins. These two teams played each other last season in wk 16 with CAR winning 37-23. That game wasn’t even that close as DET started well but had a fumble which CAR recovered and turned into a td. CAR went on to romp in this game and there is payback in the minds of DET. DET has to put pressure on Bryce Young and not let him get comfortable. If they can do that and play their game, this has blowout written all over it. Maybe DET HC Dan Campbell is getting the team to turn the corner. DET #8 TOT OFF. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: DET-10 

Tennessee Titans (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                          TENN+1

Which TENN team do we have? TENN is 2pts away from being 3-1. But they were blown out by CLEV. TENN RB Derrick Henry got it going last week vs CINNCY. He is back up to speed? That takes a lot of pressure off of QB Ryan Tannehill. INDY dug themselves a big hole last week going down 23-0 @HOME tp LAR. But, give them credit. They fought all the way back and took the game to OT where they eventually lost 29-23. It was a sloppy game for both teams and INDY had their chances early but couldn’t connect. L16 TENN @INDY, TENN 6-10 SU but 8-7-1 ATS. L18 TENN vs INDY, ROAD 10-6-1 ATS 1NL. TENN 35-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 35-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. TENN 29-18 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. TENN 7-1 ATS as a div DOG off DD ATS win. TENN 9-16 ATS as a DOG <6pts off SUATS win. TENN 9-27 ATS off DD SU win. TENN 7-23 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. IND 6-4 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. INDY 8-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. INDY 19-28-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 30-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 33-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 4-11 ATS before JAGS. INDY 15-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 20-15 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. This will be the battle of the game. INDY #23 RUSH DEF vs TENN #14 RUSH OFF. If Henry can get going vs INDY it will be over. INDY didn’t stop the LAR run game last wee and it cost them early. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor probably will not play this game so it will still be RB by committee. TENN game plan is to have a spotter on INDY QB Anthony Richardson and make INDY beat them with his arm. If Tannehill can get the ball to his receivers, this game will be a rout for TENN. Even though INDY is on the bounceback and TENN is coming off a blowout win, I like TENN in this game because of the Derrick Henry factor. 

THE PICK: TENN+1

New York Giants (1-3), (0-4) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS                                NYG+11  

NYG looked awful on @HOME on MNF. NYG QB Daniel Jones had 2INTS & 1lost fumb that contributed to the 24-3 loss to SEA. Jones looked horrible and played catchup the whole night. He didn’t miss many passes but the three mistakes he made were costly. Without RB Saquon Barkley, you can pencil in a loss for NYG. The O-LINE for NYG is terrible too due to injures and just plain awfulness. They gave up 10 sacks, not a misprint. SEA didn’t have to do much because they got so many gifts. LW, MIA was tied 14-14 when BUFF just took off. MIA didn’t respond and they lost 48-20. L5 MIA vs NYG, NYG 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. NYG 8-12-1 ATS in 1^st in BB RGs. NYG 41-21 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYG 35-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 12-5-1 ATS after MNF. NYG 3-10 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 16-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. NYG 25-5 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 11-6 ATS vs .333> non-conf opp. MIA 9-9 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. MIA 28-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MIA 29-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 8-15-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. MIA 0-8 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV >4pts. MIA 11-15 ATS off div ROAD gm. MIA 8-11 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm. MIA 0-7 ATS @HOME off DD ATS div loss. MIA 2-12 ATS off DD ATS div loss. MIA 1-9 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses. But, guess which one is going to bounce back this week? MIA is going to rock the G-MEN while QB Jones is going backwards. It also looked like HC Daboll & Daniel Jones are not communicating well. But that’s what happens when you pay someone so much money, they get a big head. Look for MIA to bounce back in a big way and get their high powered OFF back on track. MIA #1 TOT OFF vs NYG #19 TOT DEF. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: MIA-11

New Orleans Saints (2-2), (1-2-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-0-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS            NO+1 ½  

LW, NE showed their OFF deficiencies. They managed a fg in their 1^st possession @DAL but it went downhill from there. Three turnovers by NE turned into 17pts for DAL on the way to 38-3 loss. DAL could have scored more while the OFF for NE at times looked lost. Is QB Mac Jones the answer? According to NE HC Bill Belichick he is for now. LW, NO was just outplayed by TB, no question. But, two fumbles by NO did turn into 10pts by TB which added to the loss by NO @HOME, 26-9. L5 NO vs NE, NO 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS. NO 11-9-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NO 34-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 31-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 10-8 ATS after TB. NO 24-11 ATS L35 as a ROAD DOG. NO 14-4 ATS AWAY after SUATS loss. NO 14-26 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. NO 4-12 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU loss >14pts. NE 38-32-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 52-37-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 16-11-2 ATS after allowing 28>pts. NE 9-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts. NE 18-7 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. This is not your great PATRIOTS team of the past. With LB Mathew Judon & CB Christian Gonzalez definitely out, the DEF for NE gets weaker. Not that they were gangbusters before but NE needs to find a winning combination and Jones needs to make better decisions. As for NO, the run game has to help QB Derek Carr out. Only with a strong run game can he & NO be successful. He is not the type of QB that can put it all on his shoulders. Right now on paper, NO is a better team and I am looking for NO RB Alvin Kamara to have a breakout game this weekend. This will help Carr and NO play better and get the win. Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses. Things only get worse for NE. Take NO here.   

THE PICK: NO+1 ½

Baltimore Ravens (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                          PITT+4

LW, BALT beat up on a CLEV team w/o QB Deshaun Watson. BALT did what they had to do and a win is a win. PITT was manhandled by HOU on both sides of the ball. PITT QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game but he will be back for this game. L16 BALT @PITT, BALT 7-9 SU & 8-6-2 ATS. L32 BALT vs PITT, BALT 14-15-2 ATS 1NL. L32 BALT vs PITT, DOG 20-8-2 ATS 1NL. L30 BALT vs PITT, ROAD 19-9-2 ATS. BALT 14-15-1 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 10-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. BALT 32-34-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 29-38-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 17-19-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. BALT 14-5-1 ATS after CLEV. BALT 5-2 ATS L7 as a div FAV 6<pts. BALT 7-13-2 ATS after allowing <10pts. PITT 11-6-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. PITT 9-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. PITT 41-21-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 31-15-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in OCT. PITT 29-13-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 22-7 ATS after allowing 28>pts. PITT HC Mike Tomlin is a good coach and he makes adjustments when necessary. The team will make necessary adjustments this week to prepare for BALT. These are always close games and I always am shocked if there is a blowout by either team. Both games last season were very close even though BALT QB Lamar Jackson didn’t play because he was injured. His last game vs PITT was in 2021 wk 13 @PITT. PITT won 20-19. PITT will not let Jackson run. PITT is in a bounceback here after a blowout loss. PITT has to establish their run game. This will be a close game, take the points.

THE PICK: PITT+4

Sunday October 8^th, 2023 4:00pm

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2), (3-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (1-0) ATS                         LAR+4 ½  

LW, LAR bolted to a 23-0 lead over INDY @INDY. But then LAR decided they played enough and INDY came back and tied the game. LAR needed OT to get a drive that landed them in the endzone with the win in OT 29-23. But the DEF for LAR did not do its job. PHILLY was in a dogfight with WASH as I predicted and almost lost the game before winning in OT 34-31. Division games are always tougher because they see each other 2x and know each other so well. WASH gave PHILLY everything they could handle and then some and should have pulled out the upset at the end, like I predicted. L8 PHILLY vs LAR, PHILLY 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS. PHILLY 14-20 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 1-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. PHILLY 6-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 1-7 ATS as a FAV 3>pts in 1^st of BB RGs. PHILLY 29-32 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 44-39 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 6-17 ATS L23 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 3-8 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 9-6 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 4-13 ATS L17 as a non div ROAD FAV. PHILLY 2-15 ATS L17 AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp off SUATS win. PHILLY 3-13 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. LAR 1-1 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. LAR 9-10-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. LAR 10-9 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAR 34-40 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 32-29 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR is not really that good of a team. They beat SEA and they barely beat INDY. They lost to a banged up CINNCY and really lost it vs SF. LAR will play tough for the 1^st half, then PHILLY will make some adjustments and then blow the doors off LAR in the 2^nd half. PHILLY will stop the LAR run game and QB Matthew Stafford will have to put the ball up 50x, throwing a couple of bad INTS along the way. Also, he will be sacked a few times as well. Meanwhile, PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts will mix it up with some run and passes, which will keep the LAR DEF guessing most of the time. He will find the open man and then go for the kill. I like PHILLY here winning by at least 7pts. I would be shocked if LAR keeps this game close.

THE PICK: PHILLY-4 ½

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (2-0) ATS                         ARZ+3

ARZ is a feisty bunch and if it wasn’t for two dropped passes they would have had at least the back door cover. They weren’t beating SF but I felt strongly that they would keep it closer than the +14 they were getting. ARZ would have lost 35-22, 35-23 or 35-24 depending on how the extra point would have gone after the dropped td. ARZ played their hearts out and I give them a lot of credit. CINCY is not looking good at all and they certainly did not look good @TENN last week in a whopper of a loss 27-3. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow is injured and not playing his best football. L4 CINNCY vs ARZ, ARZ 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. CINNCY 14-7 ATS L21 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 15-5-1 TS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CINNCY 27-42 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 23-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 18-8 ATS after scoring 10<pts. CINNCY 12-11 ATS as a FAV <7pts off DD ATS loss. CINNCY 8-6-1 ATS as a non conf FAV >1pts. ARZ 15-15-1 ATS L31 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 39-43 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 38-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. ARZ 17-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 15-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG 3>pts. ARZ 8-11 ATS after SF. ARZ 22-9 ATS as a DOG vs <.500 opp. ARZ 11-1 ATS as a DOG >4pts vs <.500 opp. ARZ 1-11 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 0-6 ATS L6 @HOME vs opp off non-div SU FAV loss. ARZ is playing competitively and not laying down. CINNCY is not on track and only when Burrow is healthy can they start winning. ARZ played SF tough and CINNCY is not as good. I like ARZ to keep it very close and not let this game run away. ARZ is off a bounceback as well as CINNCY is but this will be a battle to the end. ARZ RB James Conner has been playing like a man on a mission and he takes a lot of pressure off of QB Joshau Dobbs. ARZ #6 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY #31 RUSH DEF. Look for ARZ to run the ball heavy. I think ARZ gets the win here at HOME.

THE PICK: ARZ+3

New York Jets (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (1-3), (0-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                                   NYJ+2

LW, there was turning point in the game on SNF for NYJ vs KC. NYJ were down 17-0 when they scored a safety vs KC and the momentum clearly swung. NYJ QB Zach Wilson woke up and KC Pat Mahomes didn’t look like his usual Superman. The NYJ had their chance but a Wilson fumble handed the game to KC 23-20. LW, DEN won @CHI 31-28 after being down 28-7. This has me generating a so what because DEN is a mess and I liked CHI+3 ½ . L10 DEN vs NYJ, DEN 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS. NYJ 30-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 39-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 5-14 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. NYJ 10-17 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. DEN 8-4 ATS before TNF. DEN 35-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 34-40 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DEN 18-5 ATS vs .333<non-div conf opp off SU loss. Clearly, NYJ is a better team and DEN hasn’t shown anything that makes them a FAV. NYJ are on a bounceback because they feel that they should have won last week and NYJ HC Robert Saleh was steamed about a pass interference call against NYJ that was bogus and kept the ball out of NYJ hands for a possible comeback win. Well, as a condolence NYJ have DEN to take out their frustrations and beat up DEN unmercifully this week. Let’s see if NYJ Zach Wilson can continue with his resurrection from the dead that he showed vs KC. These two teams met in wk 7 last season @DEN. In that game NYJ RB Bryce Hall injured his knee and was out for the rest of the season. NYJ won that game 16-9 but I don’t see any revenge here on the part of DEN, they are not a focused team. I like the NYJ on a bounceback with a couple of points as icing on the cake. Also, the remarks that DEN HC Sean Payton made about NYJ OC Nathaniel Hackett in the preseason should be enough fodder for the NYJ to beat up DEN.

THE PICK: NYJ+2

Kansas City Chiefs (3-1), (2-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3), (2-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS                         MINN+5

LW, MINN had to win the game, period. They were desperate and I said so. They could not start out 0-4 and think that they could magically turn around their season. But MINN is bad and they barely beat CAR. MINN QB Kirk Cousins put the team in a hole with an INT that was returned for a td. But, MINN persevered and won 21-13. On SNF, KC was up 17-0 and the tide turned. A safety and the flood gates opened for NYJ. Before you knew it, the score was 20-20 and there was a game. Well, KC kicked a fg and had a chance for a 10pt victory but, Mahomes slid for the 1^st down and the game was KC 23-20. Mahomes didn’t look his masterful self and threw 2INTs that were way off the mark. He certainly will correct that. L4 KC vs MINN, KC 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. KC 24-23-1 ATS L48 as a ROAD FAV. KC 12-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. KC 25-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 30-30-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 11-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 18-7-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. MINN 7-4 ATS L11 as a HOME DOG. MINN 19-28 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MINN 27-28-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 10-9 ATS before CHI. MINN 15-7 ATS vs .700>opp. KC is very good vs the run. KC #12 RUN DEF. KC will shut down the run and put it all on Cousins back. This is where he will make mistakes. Mahomes is coming off a sub par game and he has been known to correct things and then blow teams out which this has all the makings of that scenario. MINN is very bad and a barely win last week, especially vs CAR, doesn’t give them a chance this week. Look for big numbers from KC in the run game and some numbers from MINN in catchup mode in a losing effort. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: KC-5

Sunday October 8^th, 2023 8:20pm

Dallas Cowboys (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0), (3-1) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS                             DAL+3 ½

LW, DAL @HOME pummeled NE 38-3. There were times when DAL looked like they eased up. If DAL went full force, they could have scored 50pts. The DAL DEF had 2tds in this game and didn’t let NE get comfortable at all. Last week, SF was a BIG FAV -14 @HOME vs ARZ. SF was up 35- 16 when ARZ put together a last drive that should have resulted in a td for ARZ. I liked ARZ +14 but two consecutive passes to TE Zach Ertz and WR Zach Pascal went through their hands. Had either one of them caught their pass, it was a td and a back door cover. L7 DAL vs SF, DAL 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS. DAL 18-16-1 ATS on SNF. DAL 12-17 ATS as a DOG on SNF. DAL 15-20 ATS AWAY on SNF. DAL 16-7 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. DAL 20-21-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DAL 29-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. DAL 11-4 ATS as a DOG vs NFC WEST. DAL 8-2 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 12-11 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 2-6 ATS L8 after scoring 35>pts. SF 9-13 ATS as a FAV on SNF. SF 8-12 ATS @HOME on SNF. SF 1-8 ATS on SNF off BB SUATS wins. SF 46-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 32-37-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 8-3-1 ATS after ARZ. SF 7-1 ATS @HOME after scoring 35>pts vs opp off SUATS win. SF 2-16 ATS vs non-div conf opp w/revenge. SF 9-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666> non-div opp. SF 1-9 ATS vs non-div conf opp w/rev off SUATS win. SF is on another level than DAL. SF QB Brock Purdy does not get nervous and takes what the DEF gives him. DAL QB Dak Prescott gets nervous and tries to make things out of nothing. Plus, he can’t read DEFs as well as he should. These two teams met in the divisional playoff last season in SF with Prescott having a bad game and SF winning 19-12. I like SF to win this game by a td or more so lay the points here. Everyone is pretty healthy for SF so they have many weapons that they can use to attack DAL. No payback for DAL.

THE PICK: SF-3 ½ 

Monday October 9^th, 2023 8:15pm

Green Bay Packers (2-2), (1-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS                        LV+2

GB has had a nice rest since their loss @HOME on TNF to DET, 34-20. GB was never in that game as DET stormed out to a 27-3 lead and then coasted. GB needs to get their running game going and going fast if they have any chance of having a successful season. GB QB Jordan Love must make better choices. LW, LV came back nicely even with a 3^rd string QB at the helm but to no avail. After LAC QB Justin Herbert injured a finger on his non-throwing hand, his delivery was off. LV crept back into the game after being down 24-7. Their DEF didn’t let LAC score and they were able to close the gap, 24-17 before a late 1^st down by LAC sewed up the game for LAC. But the O-LINE which gave up 6 sacks to LAC LB Khalil Mack has to be addressed. Also, the running game for LV has been unreliable and has put a lot of pressure on whoever is the LV QB. L4 GB vs LV, GB 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. GB 7-8-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. GB 37-35-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 36-27-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 21-24-2 ATS L47 vs AFC. GB 8-2 ATS after DET. GB 15-6-1 ATS after a DD ATS loss. GB 30-13-1 ATS after div gm. GB 22-9 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 8-0 ATS L8 off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU loss. LV 5-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. LV 3-8 ATS on MNF vs non-div opp. LV 7-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LV 14-14-1 ATS L29 as a HOME DOG. LV 39-35 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 28-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 12-9-1 ATS off SU DIV loss. LV 1-6-2 ATS off SU div ROAD loss. LV 9-6 ATS after LAC. LV 6-15-2 ATS L23 @HOME vs NFC. GB HC Matt LaFleur can’t just lay back and watch Aaron Rodgers lead the way. He needs to help QB Jordan Love grow and become successful. LaFleur has to be hands on. GB has the tools to be good but the DEF has to make plays. They cannot be picked apart or run over as they were vs DET. LV is a mess and good team should be able to handle them with no problem. LV QB Jimmy Garoppolo should be back from his concussion but if he doesn’t have any protection up front it will be another long night for him and the team. GB should bounceback here nicely getting a win by say a fg.

THE PICK: GB-2