2024 NFL SCHEDULE WILD CARD WEEKEND

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 11^th, 2025 4:30pm

(5) Los Angeles Chargers @ (4) Houston Texans                      HOU+2 ½

HOU QB CJ Stroud has not looked as good this season as he did in 2023. As a team they have not looked good the last four games. HOU was manhandled @HOME by BALT on Christmas Day and before that were beaten soundly by KC. They beat an injury filled MIA and they beat TENN, so what. The only convincing win that HOU has had all season was @HOME vs BUFF in week 5. But, in that game BUFF muffed that game in the last 5minutes with suspect play calling and execution and HOU walked away with a 23-20 win. LAC is having a fine 1^st season under HC Jin Harbaugh. LAC RBs JK Dobbins & Gus Edwards are the 1-2 punch that takes a lot of pressure off of QB Justin Herbert. But Edwards is questionable for this game. Can RB Hassan Haskins step up if Edwards is not available? This would take a lot of pressure off of Herbert. The DEF for LAC has certainly stepped up this season going from #28 TOT DEF in 2023 to #11 TOT DEF in 2024. The DEF has 17INTs & 46 sacks. But LAC hasn’t beaten any teams that are in the playoffs. The only team that LAC has beaten that is in the playoffs is DEN 2x. LAC has lost to @PITT, KC (2x), @ARZ, BALT & TB. HOU has had a better run game thanks to RB Joe Mixon who was picked up from CINNCY in the off-season but QB CJ Stroud has gone from 5INTS in 2023 to 12 INTs in 2024. At times he has not looked comfortable in the pocket. For LAC to win this game, the LAC DEF must put a lot of pressure on Stroud and stop the run game. LAC must create turnovers and extra opportunities for the LAC OFF to score. For HOU it is an uphill battle because as a team they have looked like they have taken a step backwards from last season. The DEF for HOU has looked solid but against top competition they have not stopped anyone. The HOU secondary can pick balls off which Hebert has to be careful of. But I like LAC to win here by a td. The crowd will be going crazy but HOU will not deliver. HOU doesn’t look convincing and LAC HC Jim Harbaugh is not going to lose in the 1^st round. Lay the points here as LAC should win by a td.     

THE PICK: LAC-2 ½  

Saturday January 11^th, 2025 8:00pm

(6) Pittsburgh Steelers @ (3) Baltimore Ravens                        PITT+9 ½

This is the matchup that PITT probably did not want. PITT has lost 4games in a row, backing into the playoffs and losing the AFC NORTH crown. As usual, these two teams met 2x this season. In week 11 @PITT, PITT won in a close game 18-16. In that game the PITT DEF played well limiting the BAL run game to 124yds & 1td on 19carries. BAL QB Lamar Jackson was 16/33 for 207 yds, 1td & 1INT. PITT QB Russell Wilson was 23/36 for 205yds, 0tds & 1INT. PITT RB Najee Harris rushed for more yards in this game than BALT RB Derrick Henry. BALT had 2fumbs & 1INT while PITT had 1INT & 0fumbles. Also, BALT K Justin Tucker missed 2fgs. PITT WR George Pickens was the top receiver for either team with 8catches for 89yds. The BALT OFF never found a rhythm while the PITT DEF did their job. In the 2^nd meeting in week 16, BALT found their rhythm and beat up PITT in BALT 34-17. This game was actually BALT 17-10 at the half but BALT ran away with the game in the 2^nd half. BALT RB Derrick Henry rushed for 162yds on 24carries and for BALT they combined for 220yds rushing on 38carries. With the BALT leading 24-17, PITT QB Russell Wilson threw a bad pass that ended up being a PICK6 and that was the game right there. BALT was now up 31-17 and the game was essentially over. The last 4games have not been kind to Russell Wilson and PITT. PITT has lost 4in a row with losses to @PHILLY, @BALT, KC & CINNCY. Wilson has not looked steady as the QB and has made enough little mistakes in these games for PITT to lose all of them. He has 4tds & 2INTS but one of the INTs was a PICK6 vs BALT and he has also had 3lost fumbles. His numbers may not say it but from watching the film he is not the same guy as he was earlier in the season. BALT is playing with a chip on their shoulder as they were the #1seed in 2023 only to lose the AFC Championship game @HOME to KC. Winning the AFC NORTH is just the 1^st step toward getting to the SuperBowl. BALT WR Zay Flowers is out for this game after injuring his knee in week 18 vs CLEV. He may be back for the div round. This is what they brought in RB Derrick Henry for, the playoffs. BALT #1 RUSH OFF vs PITT #6 RUSH DEF. This is the matchup that BALT wants. As for PITT, they need to play a perfect game which Russell Wilson has shown he cannot do. WR George Pickens has looked awful after coming back from his injury. He doesn’t look focused and that doesn’t help PITT. I really don’t think PITT gets it together here. Lay the points as BALT should win by at least 10pts.      

THE PICK: BALT-9 ½  

Sunday January 12^th, 2025 1:00pm

(7) Denver Broncos @ (2) Buffalo Bills                                     DEN+8 ½

Don’t look too much into DEN’s whooping of KC last week. The game was against a team of non starters for KC and DEN needed the game for the playoffs and seeding. I had liked KC because KC QB Carson Wentz had done it before but, he was playing with a complete team of backups. On top of that DEN was ultra motivated. But still I liked KC+11. However, the KC team that played did not look like any KC team that played during the season, oh well. Also, last week, BUFF lost @NE. This is another game that should not be taken too seriously because BUFF did not play QB Josh Allen, except for 1handoff, & BUFF also used backups. BUFF rested players on OFF & DEF. DEN has had a nice season with rookie QB Bo Nix. Hopefully, the team can grow with him and can contend for the AFC WEST crown even with Mahomes at the reins in KC. But for DEN to do that, there can be no lapses in games that they should be winning. DEN started off the season 0-2 with losses @SEA & vs PITT. DEN QB Bo Nix did not look particularly well throwing the ball with 0tds & 4INTs. Folks were a leading saying that Nix was a mistake. But DEN rebounded and so did the DEF. However, DEN would lose to LAC, @BALT, @KC, and then down the stretch @LAC & @CINNCY. DEN beat the bad teams but lost to the playoff teams. Plus, the DEN DEF ha not been as strong down the stretch as it was earlier in the season. They have slipped a little and against good teams that is not good. Good teams take advantage of mistakes and BUFF is very good at that. BUFF is on a mission. Since losing @HOME to KC in the playoffs, BUFF has been out to prove that they are worthy of playing in the SuperBowl. BUFF has shown that they can beat some good teams but lose to some good teams. BUFF lost @BALT, @HOU & @LAR. But, BUFF beat KC & @DET. BUFF also showed that they can score a lot of points. BUFF scored 40points or more 4x and 30points or more 12x. It all starts with QB Josh Allen who threw only 6INTs in 16games. Allen was helped by the fact that BUFF RB James Cook rushed for 16tds. With a reliable RB, opposing DEFs have to be aware of the run and cannot just focus on the pass. BUFF has an OFF attack that is well balanced. Plus, BUFF has a slew of receivers that can catch the ball anywhere and almost everywhere. On DEF, BUFF #24 PASS DEF & # 12 RUSH DEF are susceptible to the good QB as in their losses have shown. This is certainly not DEN’s turn. DEN still has a lot to learn about winning and maintaining that winning feeling. DEN did not have a #1RB that could consistently keep the opposing DEFs guessing. Nix does like to take off but I think BUFF will be ready. DEN will take chances here and Nix will make some throws that he shouldn’t. I like BUFF here laying the points as BUFF should win by at least 10points.      

THE PICK: BUFF-8 ½

Sunday January 12^th, 2025 4:30pm

(7) Green Bay Packers @ (2) Philadelphia Eagles                 GB+4 ½

These two teams met in week 1 in a game in Brazil which PHILLY won 34-29. That game was tightly contested as both teams rushed well. GB combined to rush for 163yds & 1td on 21 carries while PHILLY rushed for 144yds & 2tds on 38carries. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts had 2INTs & 1lost fumble while GB QB Jordan Love threw 1INT. Love was injured in the game and GB QB Malik Willis did start the next two games for GB which GB won both. Last week, GB WR Christian Watson injured his ACL in week 18 game @CHI and will be out the rest of the season. That is BIG for GB as Watson is an explosive player who catches everything that is thrown his way. GB CB Jaire Alexander is out for the rest of the season and that is also a big blow to the secondary of GB which was having a great season. GB S Xavier McKinney who was picked up from the NYG in the off-season is having a career season with 8INTs. He has definitely been a pleasant surprise for the GB DEF which has been playing a lot better this season than in seasons past. Also, GB QB Jordan Love is questionable for this game because he injured his elbow last week in the meaningless game @CHI. GB QB Malik Willis also seemed to injure himself as well but he is not listed. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is still in concussion protocol and right now has not been cleared for practice. QB Tanner McKee who started and played well vs NYG in wk 18 would probably start this game. He looks good and knows the PHILLY OFF well. Both teams have prolific OFFs. GB #5 TOT OFF & PHILLY #8 TOT OFF. PHILLY is definitely more of a rush heavy OFF with RB Saquon Barkley. PHILLY #2 RUSH OFF & GB #5 RUSH OFF. GB is better at the passing game. GB #12 PASS OFF & PHILLY #29 PASS OFF. Love is susceptible to costly mistakes than is Hurts. The DEF for PHILLY is solid and is healthy PHILLY #1 TOT vs GB #5 TOT DEF. But without Alexander back there for GB it is a major concern. PHILLY is focused to go deep into the playoffs. At the beginning of this season PHILLY was 2-2 and everybody was saying that they weren’t going anywhere and changes needed to be made. Well, HC Nick Sirianni righted the ship and PHILLY started winning games convincingly and not getting cute. I just think that PHILLY is a better team here and should win by a td even if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play. Look for PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley to get enough touches to keep the GB DEF guessing. Lay the points here as PHILLY wins by a td.     

THE PICK: PHILLY-4 ½

Sunday January 12^th, 2025 8:00pm

(6) Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers         WASH+3

These two teams met in week 1 @TB with Tampa Bay beating WASH 37-20. But that was a long time ago. For WASH this has been a season of rebirth. They have had their 1^st winning season since 2016 and they have found their franchise QB in Jayden Daniels. But they have much more. They have brought back that enthusiastic approach to the game that was lost in WASH for at least two decades. WASH HC Dan Quinn has brought back an interest in this team that was lost for some time. WASH went 12-5 this season but, it was an easy schedule. Their five losses were to @TB, @BALT, vs PITT, @PHILLY & vs DAL all pretty much playoff teams. WASH did beat PHILLY in week 16 but, WASH had knocked out starting PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts and an unprepared Kenny Pickett came in and couldn’t hold the fort for PHILLY. WASH won the game in dramatic fashion, 36-33. As for TB, they have had an up and down season. They beat @DET, vs PHILLY but lost to ATL 2x, vs BALT, @KC, vs SF, & @DAL. Just when you think they were on a roll, they make easy mistakes and lose. For TB QB Baker Mayfield, he had the best statistical season of his career with 41tds & 16INTs and has found a way to lead this team of veterans to a 2^nd straight season of playoffs. He is a gunslinger and will always try to make something out of nothing but he has WR Mike Evans who catches everything. He also has a running game that can help him out with RBs Bucky Irving & Rachaad White who together rushed for almost 1,800 yds. Is there some revenge on the minds of WASH for the week 1 loss @TB? I don’t know but there certainly is some focus on the minds of TB as not wanting to be 1 and done. WASH’s schedule will certainly get tougher next season after this season. (Just ask HOU about that) and will see if WASH will be moving forwards or backwards on the progress chart. TB #4 RUSH DEF vs WASH #3 RUSH OFF. This is the matchup. We all know WASH QB Jayden Daniels likes to run but TB will be waiting. Plus, the DEF for WASH is not very good. WASH #13 TOT DEF. Don’t go by this stat because remember WASH has lost to very good teams and beaten bad ones. TB is a veteran team and WASH is young and makes mistakes. The TB OFF can be explosive and I don’t think the WASH DEF will match up well. Lay the points here and TB should win by at least 7pts and WASH will have something to build on.    

THE PICK: TB-3

Monday January 13^th, 2024 8:00pm

(5) Minnesota Vikings @ (4) Los Angeles Rams                      LAR+1 ½

Who would have thought that a 14win team would be a #5 seed and have to travel on the road to get to the SuperBowl? Well if MINN has sights on the SuperBowl that is exactly the road they will be taking. They have had a fine season but it would be a BIG disappointment if they were to lose the 1^st weekend of the playoffs. All that work & all that sweat and no further than the wild card? Last week, MINN had early troubles in the redzone @DET and I knew that was going to be a bad omen for the evening. It was, because MINN could not score 4x from the redzone and had 1^st & goal 3x inside the DET 10yd line and could not get a td. Was it play selection? Was it tough DEF on the part of DET? I think it was a little of both. Also, the usually tough MINN DEF vs the run, sold out, giving up 178yds & 3tds on 31carries to DET which completely opened up the door for DET QB Jared Goff. Even though Goff threw 2INTs, he still managed to complete 27/33 passing & 1td. LAR is playing in the, all of a sudden, weak NFC WEST. LAR only needed 10wins to clinch the division and get into the playoffs. But along the way, LAR did beat MINN in week 8 & BUFF in week 14. Those are BIG time championship caliber teams so they have shown, they can beat top talent. But LAR did lose BIG to PHILLY and to MIA, CHI & GB earlier in the season. WRs Puca Nacua & Cooper Kupp are integral parts to the LAR success. Without them in the lineup, LAR has absolutely no chance at winning games. These guys catch everything thrown their way and always seem to get extra yardage after the catch. After the convincing win vs BUFF, LAR struggled to wins vs SF, NYJ & ARZ. It seems they play up to good teams and down to bad teams, it happens. These two teams met in week 8 @LAR with LAR winning 30-20. In that game MINN didn’t turn the ball over but the MINN DEF could stop LAR WRs Nacua & Kupp. Plus, LAR RB Kyren Williams added 97yds on 23carries. That was MINN’s last loss before last week’s loss @DET. MINN is coming off a loss and a little revenge against LAR going into this game. MINN has to shrug the loss off and go back to what has made them successful under HC Kevin O’Connell. There has to be some mystery in their game plan and a DEF that will not give up yardage and passes that will dictate the game. The MINN DEF has to be more aggressive and also remember that they lost here earlier in the season. MINN #2 RUSH DEF. I like MINN to regroup here and exact revenge vs LAR on the loss from week 8. MINN CB Stephon Gilmore has to step up. The MINN DEF had 24INTs & 49 sacks during the regular season. Let’s see a little of both in this game. It was a good season for LAR but MINN is just too good.  

THE PICK: MINN-1 ½