2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 6
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 6 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Tim
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYE: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins & Minnesota Vikings
Thursday October 10th, 2024 8:15pm
San Francisco 49ers (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2), (2-2-1) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS SEA+3
LW, SF blew another double digit lead. This time it was @HOME vs ARZ. SF was u 23-10 at halftime and did not score another point in the 2nd half. SF had 2INTs, 1lost fumble and a turnover on downs which ARZ turned into fourteen points to win the game 24-23. SF took a lacksidasical approach to ARZ and ARZ burned them. The SF DEF sacked ARZ QB Kyler Murray 1x and he burned them for a throwing td and a running td. There is nothing more to say about this game for SF as they squandered an opportunity for a win. LW, the roof caved in for SEA. SEA was @HOME vs NYG. I liked SEA-6 in a bounceback vs NYG but, they didn’t like themselves. The SEA OFF still doesn’t look in sync and the DEF can’t stop anyone on the ground. NYG rookie RB Tyrone Tracy rushed for 129yds on 18carries. No one on the SEA DEF stopped NYG QB Daniel Jones from running either for 38yds. All combined SEA gave up 175yds on the ground. To make matters worse as SEA was setting up to kick what would have been a tying fg at 23-23, NYG blocked the fg and ran it back for a td. Now the score was NYG 29-20 and game over. This is a game that SEA squandered. SEA QB Geno Smith was sacked 7x. In 5games, Geno has been sacked 18x. SEA has O-LINE problems as the SEA RBs rushed for a combined 30yds. L17 SF @SEA, SEA 12-5 SU & 11-6 ATS. L24 SF vs SEA, SEA 14-9-1 ATS. L20 SF vs SEA, FAV 14-6 ATS. SF 3-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on TNF. SF 6-9 ATS on TNF. SF 9-4-1 ATS after ARZ. SF 18-13 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. SF 27-44 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 26-21-1 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SF 47-36-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 12-15-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 5-0 ATS L5 vs opp off SU HOME FAV loss. SF 7-1 ATS L8 after div gm vs opp w/revenge. SEA 11-4 ATS L15 on TNF. SEA 17-12 ATS on TNF. SEA 12-13 ATS vs div on TNF. SEA 12-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SEA 9-5 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. SEA 25-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 22-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SEA 32-35-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. SEA 12-7 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. SEA 19-6 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss vs <.600opp. Both teams are coming off losses. SF has lost three of the last four games and SEA has lost two straight games. SF has beaten SEA four straight games and has so much talent that anyone on this team can make a great play and turn the game around. But, SF needs to play better as a team. SEA gives up points. Their DEF doesn’t show up a lot and they give up a lot on the ground. SEA #20 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. Teams find a way to score points against this team. With the exception of the MIA game, opposing OFFs have found the endzone easily and have been able to run the ball. Last week, SEA gave up 175yds on the ground. The O-LINE is a problem for SEA and SF should take note and stop the run BIG and put it all on Geno’s shoulders. SF QB Brock Purdy has to play with more urgency instead of looking like he is playing catch with his dad. He also needs to make better decisions. Maybe SF has that SuperBowl hangover. It happens to teams that lose the SuperBowl. I like SF here in their bounceback because they are the better team and they will show it on TNF.
THE PICK: SF-3
Sunday October 13th, 2024 9:30am
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4), (2-2-1) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (3-2), (4-1) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS (London, England) JAGS+2 ½
LW, JAGS were desperate for a win and I debated their desperation vs INDY QB situation & the fact that INDY RB Jonathan Taylor would be out. With all that going on, JAGS still gave up a combined 99yds on the ground and needed a fg with :17 seconds left to pull out a 37-34 win @HOME vs INDY. JAGS squandered a 34-20 lead with 5:09 remaining and needed a 49yd fg to win. This team is in trouble. LW, CHI beat CAR 36-10. Before we go bonkers over the win, remember CAR is a very bad team and has many deficiencies on both sides of the ball. I also said that CHI should win by at least 10pts. CHI was up 27-7 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. It was tune up game for CHI and CHI QB Caleb Williams had a good day and was only sacked 1x. He did not turn the ball over and the RBs helped him out with 98yds rushing. Ball control is essential for Williams as he learns that opposing DEFs are much faster in the NFL than the NCAA. L5 JAGS vs CHI, JAGS 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. JAGS 6-5 ATS in London. JAGS 7-10 ATS after INDY. JAGS 33-37 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 30-30 ATS AWAY In OCT. JAGS 8-43 SU & 13-39 ATS vs NFC. JAGS 3-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs non-div opp. JAGS 2-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 5-0 ATS L5 off SU div HOME win. CHI 9-7-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. CHI 26-38-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 14-28-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CHI 7-12 ATS off BB Su wins vs conf opps. CHI 7-5 ATS as a FAV <6pts vs <.333opp off ATS win. CHI 7-3 ATS as a HOME FAV <6pts vs <.333opp off ATS win. CHI 2-6-2 ATS L10 vs .333<opp. CHI 0-9 ATS L9 off DD ATS win. On paper, JAGS have talent at many positions. But their DEF gives up a lot and doesn’t make plays. The JAGS DEF has a total of 11sacks and 0INTs. CHI QB Caleb Williams is coming off a nice game but he can’t get cocky. CAR is terrible. JAGS are playing terrible but have a lot of talent. The DEF for JAGS is bad. JAGS #31 TOT DEF w/#8 RUSH DEF & #32 PASS DEF. JAGS gave up a lot of yds in the air as INDY was making their comeback. But in this game, CHI still needs to establish the run vs JAGS and then pick them apart through the air. There will be a deflation for JAGS in this game after they got their desperation win. The same thing happened to CAR after they got their desperation win-see vs LV. There is no rhyme or reason why JAGS are bad but JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is not playing the same. Could it have to do with his BIG contract? A lot of QBs with BIG contracts have tailed off. Anyway, I like CHI here laying the points as CHI should get another nice win vs a very bad team.
THE PICK: CHI-2 ½
Sunday October 13th, 2024 1:00pm
Arizona Cardinals (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ARZ+5
LW, GB was a FAV-3 @LAR and I liked GB here. However, GB was up 24-13 and decided that they played enough football for the day. LAR is a team that never gives up, even with so many players injured. LAR scored a td to make it GB 24-19 and LAR had one last chance to make something happen. LAR got as far as the GB 38yd line and fell short there. But, if this was 3pt game instead of a 5pt game, it may have ended a little differently. Had the LAR completed their 2pt conversion on the last td it would have been a 3pt game and not a 5pt game, totally different. Anyway, GB won 24-19 and GB played a game just enough to win and cover. LW, ARZ was a BIG DOG+7 @SF. SF was leading this game 23-10 but decided that they would rather lose this game, then go on to win. SF didn’t use a spotter on ARZ QB Kyler Murray like I mentioned and he burned them for a 50yd td run where he wasn’t even touched. ARZ RB James Conner & Murray combined for 169yds rushing. Murray didn’t have the greatest of days passing the ball but he didn’t have to because SF turned the ball over 3x in the 2nd half and ARZ scored 1td & 2fgs for the comeback win, 24-23. L6 ARZ vs GB, ARZ 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS. ARZ 10-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ARZ 8-13 ATS after SF. ARZ 25-37 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 41-46 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 10-1 ATS L11 as a ROAD DOG 14<pts vs opp off SU Win. GB 38-37-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 26-30-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 10-13-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 9-2 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. GB 8-0 ATS L8 vs NFC WEST. GB 0-4 ATS L4 vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ has played the teams within the NFC WEST very tough, beating LAR & @SF. But outside the division ARZ has lost @BUFF, vs DET & vs WASH. This is one of those games outside the division. However, ARZ is one of those teams that doesn’t go away quietly. ARZ was only blown out in one game and that was vs WASH. No question, ARZ likes to run the ball with either QB Kyler Murray keeping it or RB James Conner leading the way. With both of them healthy and sharing the field, the opposing DEFs have their hands full. Their only win that was BIG was vs TENN and that as I mentioned was a little payback of former TENN QB Malik Willis vs TENN. But other than that win, they have beaten INDY by 6pts & LAR by 5pts. I could see this game going down to the wire because GB QB Jordan Love always has turnovers. This gives the opposing teams multiple OFF opportunities. ARZ is one of those teams that does not squander opportunities. I like this game to be lees than the spread suggests because of the spirit within the ARZ team. GB will probably win but ARZ will keep it close. Take ARZ & the pts here.
THE PICK: ARZ+5
Indianapolis Colts (2-3), (2-2-1) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (1-3), (1-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS INDY+2 ½
LW, INDY was +2 ½ @JAGS. I mentioned two factors important to this game. JAGS were very desperate doe a win and the QB situation for INDY. Both came into play & INDY QB Joe Flacco almost pulled out another miracle. I liked the JAGS in this game and going into the 4th qtr, JAGS were up 20-10. But Flacco led a comeback that was one for the ages and another reason why he should be the starter for INDY. INDY scored 24pts in the 4th qtr on 2tds from Flacco, a running td and a fg while JAGS got 2tds and needed a fg with :17 left in the game to pull out a 37-34 win. This was all without INDY RB Jonathan Taylor and JAGS were desperate for the win. This team does plays better with Flacco as the QB. Flacco even ran 3x for 22yds. He did have one fumble that JAGS turned into 3pts. Flacco also passed for 359yds and 3tds. TENN is coming off their bye. TENN 11-6 ATS since 2007, off their bye. Before their bye, they too were desperate for a win, starting out the season at 0-3. TENN played @MIA who are without QB Tua Tagovailoa and they beat them up 31-12. TENN QB Will Levis started that game but got injured and Mason Rudolph took over. He did not turn the ball over and was able to get the win with help from the RBs who contributed 127yds rushing & 2tds on 37 carries. TENN never trailed in this game but TENN has a long road ahead of them. L17 INDY @TENN, INDY 12-5 SU & 8-7-1 ATS 1PICK. L12 INDY vs TENN, FAV 7-5 ATS. L20 TENN vs INDY, ROAD 11-7-1 ATS 1NL. INDY 14-9 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. INDY 14-3 ATS 1NL after JAGS. INDY 20-30-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. INDY 33-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. INDY 30-33-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 28-13-1 ATS as DOG >1pt off an SU loss. INDY 3-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs conf opp. TENN 38-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 35-36 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TENN 29-19 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in OCT. TENN 10-2 ATS as a div HOME FAV 3<pts w/revenge. TENN 12-3 ATS w/rest. INDY QB Anthony Richardson is again questionable for this game. But does he really give INDY the best chance to win? JAGS needed a last second fg to beat INDY after INDY QB Joe Flacco brought them all the way back to tie the game at 34. TENN QB Will Levis is the projected starter for this game but TENN has other problems than just @QB. INDY RB Jonathan Taylor is again out for this game and at this point I am looking @Flacco as the starting QB. He seems to have a rhythm with this team that he didn’t have with NYJ or the tail end @BALT. He looks comfortable out there and his teammates respond well. I like INDY with Joe Flacco as their QB because he gets them playing well and he has developed a nice bond with the receivers on the INDY team. I like INDY with the points because I just don’t see TENN doing well. TENN has talent on paper but, there’s nothing motivating this team to play well and win. Even though it is shy of a fg take INDY on a bounceback with Flacco.
THE PICK: INDY+2 ½
Houston Texans (4-1), (1-3-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-1-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-4), (1-3-1) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-1-1-) ATS NE+7
LW, HOU was up @HOME vs BUFF 17-3 and it looked like HOU would blow out BUFF. But BUFF came storming back to tie the game @20-20 late in the game and it looked like BUFF might go ahead and win the game. But then BUFF called some stupid plays with the ball on a very late drive and gave HOU enough time to get a few yards and kick the winning fg with :00 left on the clock and a 23-20 win. HOU QB CJ Stroud did manage to spread the ball around to 8different receivers but WR Nico Collins injured his hamstring and is on IR. Also, HOU has an RB by committee until RB Joe Mixon makes it back. HOU got lucky here as BUFF was on a BIG bounceback but failed. LW, NE @HOME vs MIA and NE should have won this game. MIA is still without Tua and NE had chances to win this game but looked incompetent with a loss 15-10. The RB situation did get better as the tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson & Antonio Gibson rushed for 141 yds & 1td. But NE QB Jacoby Brissett was again ineffective as NE could have won this game late but could not find the endzone. L11 HOU vs NE, HOU 3-8 SU but 5-5-1 ATS. HOU 5-8-2 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 11-8-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. HOU 14-21-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 15-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 1-10 ATS off BB SU wins. HOU 6-14 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. HOU 10-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV <9pts off SU win. HOU 3-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400<opp. HOU 2-5 ATS L7 vs AFC EAST. NE 6-9-1 ATS L16 as a HOME DOG. NE 14-7-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NE 27-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 39-34-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 12-7 ATS after MIA. NE 3-4-1 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp. NE 16-5 ATS @HOME vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 12-3 ATS off SU loss vs opp off BB SU wins. NE 10-1 ATS L11 @HOME vs AFC SOUTH. HOU RB Joe Mixon is questionable for this game but was present for practice this week. But the big blow for HOU is WR Nico Collins who is their #1 WR. Hopefully WR Stefon Diggs can step up. Where is NE going? NE QB Drake Maye gets the start as Brissett is being benched but it’s the O-LINE for NE that is the problem. Plus the fact that HOU has a lot of guys on DEF with multiple sacks who like to get at opposing QBs and Maye will have his hands full. Will Maye have enough time to make the right plays? Or will he be under constant pressure? My analysis is the latter and HOU will be looking at this game as a way to get their OFF in sync without WR Nico Collins there. But, as I have said all along, the NE DEF can surprise you and keep the game in reach but with the rookie QB starting and an O-LINE that is weak, HOU should have this game at hand. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (2-3), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS NO+3 ½
LW on TNF, TB had the ball @the ATL 28yd line with 1:44 to play & the lead 30-27. Do you think they won the game? Here’s what happened. TB went backwards with penalties and bad play calling, punted the ball and eventually lost the game. ATL got the ball, moved down the field and kicked a fg that tied the game at 27-27. Then in OT, ATL received the ball first and scored a td to win 36-30. I never liked HC Todd Bowles as a HC or DC and he is very overrated. Look at his record with the NYJ. By the way, ATL QB Kirk Cousins literally shredded the TB DEF. LW NO was @KC on MNF. KC toyed with this team. NO didn’t get any kind of running game going, getting a total of 46yds. KC went up 10-0 & 16-7 at the half. NO made it to 16-13 but got no closer and KC won 26-13. In the process NO QB Derek Carr suffered a tear in his oblique and will be out for a few weeks. L17 TB @NO, TB 7-10 SU & 8-9 ATS. L22 TB vs NO, HOME 10-12 ATS. L14 TB vs NO, NO 10-4 ATS. TB 12-16 ATS L28 as a ROAD FAV. TB 12-16-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. TB 22-40-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 20-38-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 19-27 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. TB 9-5-1 ATS after ATL. TB 4-12 ATS off div ROAD gm vs .700< conf opp. NO 8-8-1 ATS L17 as a HOME DOG. NO 8-11-2 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NO 33-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 34-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 16-26 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. NO 15-1 ATS as a DIV DOG 3>pts. NO 15-11-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & then playing @HOME. NO QB Derek Carr is out and rookie QB Spencer Rattler will get the start. NO TE Taysom Hill is questionable for this game as is RB Alvin Kamara. This season NO started out strong but has fallen back down to Earth the last few weeks. TB started off well and it has been a little rocky for them the past few weeks. TB certainly should have won the last game and their only real defeat was @HOME vs DEN. TB QB Baker Mayfield is putting up good numbers and not making too many mistakes. Both teams are on a bounceback but with NO starting a rookie QB, they are not likely to get off their 3game losing streak. TB is well rested and should be ready to go after their loss in OT. TB 3-5 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. This is the kind of game that could go either way depending on turnovers. Both of these teams have had some good wins but their losses make you scratch your head. TB beat @DET & PHILLY but lost to ATL & DEN. NO beat @DAL but lost to PHILLY & @ATL. I like TB here because they have the QB edge. TB should win by a td and that’s how I’m looking at this game. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: TB-3 ½
Cleveland Browns (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-2), (2-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS CLEV+9 ½
LW, CLEV played @WASH and it wasn’t even close. CLEV lost 34-13. CLEV can’t stop anyone and on OFF QB Deshaun Watson doesn’t look right. He often looks puzzled and unprepared. In the game vs WASH, Watson was sacked 7x & fumbled 1x. The DEF for CLEV can’t stop anyone and certainly couldn’t stop WASH. WAS never trailed in this game and it was WASH 34-6 before CLEV added a dummy td in the 4th qtr to make the final score 34-13. PHILLY was on a bye last week. PHILLY 9-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, PHILLY was beaten pretty bad @TB, 33-16. PHILLY was down 24-7 at the half and managed 1td in the 2nd half, never really threatening TB. I had liked PHILLY in this game as revenge for the shellacking they received @TB in the 1st round of the playoffs last season. But PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts hasn’t looked the same since his SuperBowl and doesn’t always make the right decisions regarding his passing. He seems to be always looking for the homerun ball and not looking at any checkdowns. That’s where he gets into trouble and PHILLY has trouble scoring. Hurts was sacked 6x in this game and had 1fumble. TB spread the ball around to 8different receivers and PHILLY couldn’t keep up. L5 CLEV vs PHILLY, CLEV 1-4 but 3-2 ATS. CLEV 8-12 ATS before CINNCY. CLEV 18-30-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEV 31-40-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 18-26-2 ATS L46 vs NFC. CLEV 3-12 ATS vs NFC EAST. CLEV 10-10-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 13<pts. CLEV 3-10 ATS as ROAD DOG 7>pts. CLEV 15-12 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEV 9-1 ATS L10 off SU loss vs .500>opp. PHILLY 9-17 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 37-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 47-40 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 27-16-1 ATS L44 vs non-conf opp. PHILLY 13-5 ATS w/rest vs .600<opp. PHILLY 9-2 ATS as a FAV >5pts w/rest. Both of these QBs don’t look good. Both of these teams are coming off losses and both are sheer disappointments at this juncture in the season. At least PHILLY has WRs AJ Brown & DeVonta Smith coming back from injuries. How is CLEV going to stop them? What about PHILLY RB Saquon Barkely? He should be able to run wild over the non existent CLEV DEF. CLEV DE Myles Garrett has been banged up and is not 100%. This is a crucial game for PHILLY if they want to get back in the NFC EAST race. As for CLEV, WR Amari Cooper leads the NFL with dropped passes and has become an unreliable target. The CLEV RB situation is still by committee but PHILLY is not the greatest vs the RUN. PHILLY #20 RUSH DEF. As for CLEV their DEF has certainly slipped from last season. CLEV DEF in 2023 #1TOT DEF w/#2 PASS DEF. In 2024, CLEV #12 TOT DEF w/#24 RUSH DEF. CLEV has lost vs DAL, vs NYG, @LV & @WASH. I don’t like CLEV’s chances on the road vs a PHILLY team that needs a confidence boosting game. This has blowout written all over it unless Hurts makes a lot of bad plays and bad decisions. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PHILLY-9 ½
Washington Commanders (4-1), (4-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS WASH+6 ½
LW, WASH @HOME beat up another bad team, CLEV 34-13. The score was WASH 24-3 at the half and turn your sets off there as the final score was WASH 34-13. WASH sacked CLEV QB Deshaun Watson 7x and recovered 1fumble. WASH rushed for 215yds & 3tds on 34 carries. WASH QB Jayden Daniels continues to impress but will have a BIG test this week @BALT. LW, BALT @CINNCY was a slugfest and CINNCY had a 38-28 lead with 8:54 to play. CINNCY couldn’t hang on & BALT then got a td and a fg to tie it at 38-38 to go into OT. BALT received the ball first but BALT QB Lamar Jackson lost a fumble and CINNCY recovered. CINNCY missed a fg and BALT was able to kick their own fg and win 41-38. Jackson threw for 4tds while BALT RB Derrick Henry was stopped for most of the game until he exploded for 51yds on a run in OT which set up the game winning fg for BALT. WASH take note. The DEF for BALT stopped the CINNCY run cold but couldn’t stop CINNCY QB Joe Burrow who passed for 5tds and was 30/39 for 392yds. L5 WASH vs BALT, WASH 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. WASH 31-39 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 37-48 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 16-4 ATS off 3+ATS wins. WASH 8-1 ATS off SU non-div win vs non-div opp off SU win. WASH 8-1 ATS off DD ATS win. BALT 3-4-1 ATS since 2007 off SU OT win. BALT 11-4-1 ATS after CINNCY. BALT 32-40-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 25-32-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BALT 19-20-1 ATS L40 vs NFC. BALT 12-1 ATS @HOME off div gm vs .500>opp. BALT 10-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-18 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-2 ATS L16 after div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. WASH has beaten four bad teams, NYG, @CINNCY, @ARZ & vs CLEV. CINNCY is who they are at 1-4 & ARZ is 2-3. They are playing a team this week that is on a different level. WASH HC Dan Quinn knows about DEF and he should have LB Bobby Wagner or someone else as a spotter against BALT QB Lamar Jackson or in the box to try to stop RB Derrick Henry from getting going. This is a true test for WASH to see if they have improved greatly or if they have a ways to go. For BALT, when they get going, they get going. But last week, they were lucky. A lost fumble and a missed fg happens 1out of 20 and they were damn lucky and should have lost. But their games vs CINNCY and especially @CINNCY are games that are unexplainable. Most of the time, when BALT goes to CINNCY no matter how CINNCY is doing, CINNCY controls the game. BALT is great vs the run but their secondary is weak and beatable. BALT #31 PASS DEF. They give up a lot but opposing teams need to play smart. This is a true test for WASH. I like WASH to keep it close and if they play smart may be able to steal this one from BALT. Look what LV did. I think it will be a good game and come down to the wire and it will be less than the spread suggests. I like WASH & the points here.
THE PICK: WASH+6 ½
Sunday October 13th, 2024 4:00pm
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2), (2-1-1) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS DEN+3
LW, DEN @HOME dominated LV. I said that LV was not that good no matter who the QB was and I was proved right. The LV QBs combined for 3INTs including a PICK6 by LV QB Gardner Minshew that changed the game completely and LV never recovered. With LV leading 10-3 and driving deep, Minshew threw a ball that was intercepted at the goal line by DEN CB Pat Surtain and returned 100yds for a td. If LV scores that td, they are up 17-3, instead the score was 10-10. It was a big swing of momentum and LV never recovered. DEN scored 34straight pts before LV scored a dummy td with 4:01 remaining to make the final score DEN 34-18. The DEF for DEN sacked LV QB 3x & had 3INTs. DEN QB Bo Nix looked good with 0turnovers and the RBs for DEN helped him out with rushing for 100yds. It was a total team effort by DEN. LAC is coming off their bye. LAC 6-11 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, LAC lost @HOME to KC, 17-10. In that game, LAC was up 10-0 but then KC put the clamps down on LAC and scored 17straight points to win 17-10. In that game LAC QB Justin Herbert was still playing with his high ankle sprain but it was the KC DEF that got all the attention. The LAC running game was stopped cold for 55yds. LAC had opportunities in this game but the KC DEF was the difference. L17 LAC @DEN, LAC 6-11 SU but 9-7-1 ATS. L34 LAC vs DEN, ROAD 19-13-2 ATS. L34 LAC vs DEN, FAV 15-17-2 ATS. L18 DEN vs LAC, DEN 11-6-1 ATS. LAC 13-16-3 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. LAC 10-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAC 31-38-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 35-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 29-28 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 21-9 ATS L30 as a HOME DOG. DEN 5-12 ATS after LV. DEN 13-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DEN 38-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 30-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 24-21 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 16-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 1-11 ATS off SUATS div HOME win. LAC is coming off two straight losses before their bye. A loss @PITT & HOME to KC. Now they face a DEF that is definitely better than those two. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#10 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. The DEN DEF also has 19sacks & 5INTS. The INTS are spread around and so are the sacks. It is not that one or two guys are dominant on this DEF, it is that the whole unit has superstars who can get to you at any time. For LAC they have some stars on DEF as well but, they seem to disappear at times and don’t make plays. LAC OLB Bud Dupree has been a welcome addition to the DEF with 2sacks &1INT already but others sometimes go missing late in games. The LAC DEF has been playing well overall but can’t disappear. LAC ##5 TOT DEF w/#5 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. Last season, DEN beat LAC both times but that was when LAC was in a freefall and Brandon Staley & Giff Smith were the HCs. Herbert was injured in the 1st game with DEN and didn’t return for the rest of the season. He may want some revenge this week. However, I think this game will be low scoring with turnovers a huge factor. DEN has been more disciplined and I like that they are getting points @HOME. The DEN DEF doesn’t make too many mistakes and they have to get to Herbert if they want to win this game. For DEN QB Bo Nix, he cannot turn the ball over and has to take what the LAC DEF gives him. If DEN turns the ball over it will be lights out for DEN. But I like the HOME team here.
THE PICK: DEN+3
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS LV+3
LW on SNF, PITT @HOME vs DAL came down to the wire. I honestly thought PITT would hold DAL and after the late fumble, I thought PITT would win. But, DAL prevailed in a tight game that saw DAL become revived in the 4th qtr. PITT had their chances and of course LB TJ Watt was all over the place and had 1 ½ sacks. PITT did capitalize on one of DAL QB Dak Prescott’s INTs for a td but they need to do more. DAL is loaded on OFF and always has someone stepping up. In this case it was a rarely used WR who beat PITT in the last minute. PITT QB Justin Fields didn’t turn the ball over but needs to make some better decisions. The final score was DAL 20-17 but should have been PITT 17-13. LW, LV was up 10-3 @DEN and driving. Then LV QB Gardner Minshew threw a bad pass that got worse. The pass was intercepted at the goal line and returned by DEN CB Pat Surtain 100yds for td. Had LV scored it would have been LV 17-3. Instead it was 10-10 and LV never recovered. DEN scored 34straight points and LV added a dummy td late to make the final score DEN 34-18. Minshew was replaced by Aidan O’connell but could get the LV OFF into the endzone until very late. LV played catchup in this game to no avail and the DEN DEF was swarming all over after making adjustments with LV leading 10-0. LV TE Brock Bowers continues to show everyone he was a great pick with 8catches for 97yds & 1td. DE Maxx Crosby had 2sacks in the loss and continues to be a force on a team that needs to start winning. L11 PITT vs LV, LV 6-5 SU & 8-3 ATS. PITT 17-19 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 37-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 50-34 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PITT 12-14 ATS L26 vs AFC WEST. PITT 21-20-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 17-26 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 16-9 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 7-9 ATS off SU non-div HOME FAV loss. LV 18-18-2 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. LV 6-8 ATS after DEN. LV 40-37 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 30-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. LV 3-6-2 ATS off SU div ROAD loss. LV 10-10-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 14-9-1 ATS off SU div loss. LV 4-19 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 0-7 ATS L7 @HOME off DD ATS loss. Both of these teams are coming of losses. PITT is coming off 2straight losses and LV has only really had one good game which was @BALT. Their other win vs CLEV was lucky as could be and CLEV beat themselves. PITT’s games are very close and I thought they would pull it out last week vs DAL. Both of these teams have X-factors. For PITT it is LB TJ Watt who seems to be everywhere the ball is and can seem to create turnovers at will. For LV, it is DE Maxx Crosby. If LV didn’t have Crosby they would be even worse than they are now. But Crosby gives this team a chance because like Watt he can dominate a game like no other. Crosby had 2 of the 3sacks that LV had last week @DEN but it was the rest of the LV team that didn’t come through. I like PITT on a double bounceback here as when these two teams get together there are always fireworks. PITT HC Mike Tomlin has been around a long time and has had many games vs LV so he knows what is expected. LV has a QB problem and need to get going somehow in that position. As for the LV DEF they are middle of the road and nothing special LV #18 TOT DEF. PITT should be able to open it up and at least run the ball. I like PITT on the road laying points unless they stagnant themselves and turn the ball over. These two teams met in week 3 of last season with PITT winning 23-18. The HC for LV was Josh Mc Daniel. But LV needs a steady QB.
THE PICK: PITT-3
Detroit Lions (3-1), (3-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS DAL+3
On SNF, DAL was @PITT and they were losing this game 10-6 in the 4th qtr. Then DAL woke up. DAL QB Dak Prescott led a td drive early in the 4th to make it DAL 13-10 but PITT answered late with a td of their own, to make the score PITT 17-13. Then Dak led a late drive with 15plys for 70 yds and a td with :20 seconds left in the game for a DAL 20-17 win. But for the play before the td, DAL RB Rico Dowdle fumbled the ball after a massive hit by PITT LB Elandin Roberts and the ball was fortunately recovered by Prescott. It led to the pass to DAL WR Jalen Tolbert to win the game for DAL. DET is coming off a bye. DET 11-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, DET was @HOME on MNF vs SEA. The OFF was on fire for DET and they never trailed. DET was up 21-7 at the half and ended up winning 42-29. DET QB Jared Goff was a perfect 18/18, 292yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. The SEA DEF had no answers as Goff spread the ball around to 7different receivers and even caught a pass from WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. SEA played catchup all night to no avail. L12 DAL vs DET, DAL 9-3 SU & 7-5 ATS. DET 11-6 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. DET 12-15-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. DET 20-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 36-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 11-11-1 ATS before MINN. DET 10-2 ATS vs non-div opp off SUATS win. DAL 12-7-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. DAL 9-8 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. DAL 39-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 21-22-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DAL 15-3 ATS @HOME off BB SUATS wins. DAL 10-3 ATS off BB SUATS vs non-div opp. DAL 8-0 ATS as a HOME DOG >1pt off SU DOG win. DAL 2-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. Do you think DET has it on their minds that they were bamboozled out of a win last season in wk 17 @DAL? DET clearly won that game but, the referees screwed up a call where a lineman reported as eligible. The referees called a penalty saying that he didn’t report when clearly on film he did. DAL ended up winning the game 20-19 but DET clearly outplayed DAL. LW, the DAL DEF without LB Parsons & DE Lawrence played pretty well sacking PITT QB Justin Fields 3x and recovering a fumble by PITT WR Pat Freiermuth. They held PITT when they needed to. Can the DAL DEF do it this week vs a more talented OFF? DET needs to play tough DEF while scoring on opportunities. This s a big game for both teams but DET needs to keep winning and show they can beat good teams. Right now DAL is still considered a good team. I like the 1-2 punch of DET RB of David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs. They are both very effective and either one can run over you. They take a lot of pressure off of Goff. Other DBs need to get involved in the INT dept for DET. Besides DET S Kerby Joseph who has 3INTs only one other DB has 1INT and all the other have none. Others need to step up. Maybe they do in this game. I like DET on the road laying the points @DAL. This should be a good game but I like DET winning by at least 7pts.
THE PICK: DET-3
Atlanta Falcons (3-2), (2-3) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-4), (1-4) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS CAR+5 ½
On TNF, ATL @HOME hung around TB and was able to kick a tying fg with :00 left on the clock to make it 30-30 and then scored a td in OT to win 36-30. Mismanagement & suspect play calling by TB at the end of regulation helped ATL get in position for them to get the tying fg. But ATL QB Kirk Cousins had the game of his life throwing 42/58, 509yds, 4tds & 1INT. He hit 7different receivers and the RBS were able to give him some relief which opened up the passing lanes. Also, K Younghoe Koo has been on fire with his reliability and ability to hit from anywhere. CAR has a lot of problems because management has not had patience in letting players develop. With new HC Dave Canales, he is under a lot of pressure to turn things around very fast. CAR was beat up bad last week @CHI, 36-10. After CHI scored 30straight points to lead 30-7, CAR managed a lousy fg that would eventually make the score CHI 36-10. CAR played catchup to no avail, again. CHI scored 17pts on CAR miscues and that helped CHI breeze through CAR. The DEF for CAR was on the field a lot and created 0turnovers while sacking CHI QB Caleb Williams only 1x. The running game for CHI rushed for 128yds while CAR allowed Williams to pass for 304yds, 2tds & 0turnovers. This will be a long season for CAR. CAR QB Andy Dalton was sacked 3x and was replaced late by Bryce Young who was sacked 1x. The only bright spot for CAR was RB Chubba Hubbard who rushed for 97yds & 1td on 13carries. L17 ATL @CAR, ATL 9-8 SU & 9-8 ATS. L26 ATL vs CAR, HOME 15-11 ATS. L24 CAR vs ATL, DOG 15-9 ATS. ATL 3-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT win. ATL 9-14 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 7-11 ATS after TB. ATL 33-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 26-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. ATL 24-31 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 7-9 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts. ATL 6-11 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs conf opp. ATL 2-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 9-16 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 8-1 ATS w/rest vs opp off SU loss. ATL 4-15-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 0-11-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. ATL 5-17-1 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 4-0 ATS L4 after TNF. CAR 41-26 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 26-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 23-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. CAR 17-12-1 ATS @HOME off SUATS loss. CAR 15-4-1 ATS off DD SU conf ROAD loss. CAR 3-3 ATS vs opp w/rest. These teams are going in opposite directions. CAR finds ways to lose and ATL seems to find a way to win. ATL hangs around and then beats you. This is actually the first easy game for ATL. So far, all the games have been tough, vs PITT, @PHILLY, vs KC, vs NO & vs TB. CAR showed a good game in only one game, @LV. Other than that their games have not been that close or competitive. LW started out nicely for CAR with a 7-0 lead but it was all downhill from there as usual. This game has blowout written all over it and it should be a tune up for ATL to work out their kinks and get ready for SEA. As for CAR, they should be shaking their heads as to what is next because they have an owner who has showed no patience in trying to get this team in the right direction.
THE PICK: ATL-5 ½
Sunday October 13th, 2024 8:20pm
Cincinnati Bengals (1-4), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (2-0) ATS New York Giants (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS NYG+3 ½
LW, NYG were @SEA and did anyone expect the outcome that resulted in that game? NYG fumbled at the SEA goal line and SEA DB Rayshawn Jenkins ran it back 102yds for a SEA td. I thought, here we go, another NYG rout. Did anyone think at that point that NYG would win this game? Well after that NYG clamped down and NYG Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy who was filling for injured RB Devin Singletary took advantage of the situation and rushed for 129yds on 18 carries which took a lot of the pressure off of NYG QB Daniel Jones. Jones passed for 23/34 257yds, 2tds and more importantly 0turnovers. SEA only scored 1OFF td all day otherwise. With NYG up 23-20 and SEA setting up for what looked like a tying fg, NYG DB Isaiah Simmons burst through the line and blocked the fg and NYG Bryce Ford-Wheaton scooped up the ball and ran it back for a td and the 29-20 win. A big turn of events in the matter of seconds. SEA was a heavy HOME FAV-6 and I liked them to bounce back after their trouncing @DET on MNF. I also didn’t like NYG chances after looking horrible @HOME vs DAL. But, NYG stayed tough and played well. LW, CINNCY lost a game they should have won. CINNCY @HOME was leading BALT 38-28 in the 4th qtr with 8:54 to go. But BALT battled back to 38-38 to go into OT. There. BALT fumbled the ball and gave CINNCY a golden opportunity and CINNCY set up for a fg. CINNCY missed the fg and gave BALT another opportunity which opened the flood gates for BALT Derrick Henry who ran the ball on a 51yd run to inside the redzone where BALT kicked a fg in OT for a 41-38 win. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was on fire with 30/39 passing 392yds & 5tds. He did have 1INT. But on the other side the CINNCY DEF couldn’t make the necessary stops to put BALT away. Although, they did hold BALT RB Derrick Henry to 41yds before his big run in OT. But the DEF for CINNCY is what lost this game. Up 38-28, the CINNCY DEF didn’t make any stops and that’s what cost them the game. L5 CINNCY vs NYG, CINNCY 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS. CINNCY 1-4-1 ATS AWAY on SNF. CINNCY 1-2 ATS as a FAV on SNF. CINNCY 1-2-1 ATS vs non-div on SNF. CINNCY 15-8 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. CINNCY 6-3 ATS since 2007 off an SU OT loss. CINNCY 11-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CINNCY 29-42 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 25-32-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 10-7-1 ATS after BALT. CNNCY 12-9-1 ATS before CLEV. CINNCY 11-8-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 3-6-1 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 2-6 ATS as a FAV 9<pts after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 1-5 ATS as a FAV <6pts after allowing 35>pts. CINNCY 8-0 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 11-12 ATS @HOME on SNF. NYG 19-15 ATS as a DOG on SNF. NYG 20-23-1 ATS L44 as a HOME DOG. NYG 12-11 ATS before PHILLY. NYG 8-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 31-34-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 38-23-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 6-8-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG 6<pts. NYG 16-11 ATS before div HOME gm. NYG 5-8-1 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU DOG win. NYG 5-1 ATS L6 off DD ATS win. NYG 5-0-1 ATS L6 in non-con HOME gms. CINNCY knows that they lost a game they should have won. I liked BALT though because the CINNCY DEF has shown they can’t stop too many teams this season. LW, NYG won a game that they should have lost. SEA didn’t take NYG too seriously and probably thought a rookie RB couldn’t beat them. Overall, with the rookie RB, NYG rushed for 175yds. CINNCY is very desperate to turn things around and get going. They have already started out slow, again and it has put the team behind the 8ball. TTeams move fast in the AFC NORTH. They cannot afford to be 1-5. For NYG, they are glad to be here and competing. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow is a good reader of DEFs and should be ready for this game. But the CINNCY DEF has to step it up. CINNCY #9 TOT OFF w/#5 PASS OFF vs NYG DEF #12 TOT DEF w/#12 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. Look for CINNCY to score a lot. Can NYG keep up? CINNCY needs this game in a big way. Lay the points here as the CINNCY OFF puts on a show unless they get careless and beat themselves.
THE PICK: CINNCY-3 ½
Monday October 14th, 2024 8:15pm
Buffalo Bills (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ New York Jets (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS NYJ+2 ½
LW, NYJ down @MINN in London, 17-0 before they started to get things going. You could thanks NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers for that as he threw a PICK6 to make the score MINN 10-0. Rodgers had 3INTs as MINN beat NYJ 23-17. NYJ played catchup in this game to no avail as the NYJ DEF only allowed 2fgs by MINN in the 2nd half. For NYJ, even though all the miscues, they only lost by 6pts. But others look at it differently and on Tuesday NYJ fired HC Robert Saleh. DC Jeff Ulbrich was named interim HC. However, even with the INTS by Rodgers the stats of MINN don’t look that impressive. In fact NYJ DEF sacked MINN QB Sam Darnold 4x, intercepted him 1x and recovered 1fumble. It was certainly sloppy for both teams and that’s why the final score ended up being so close. LW, BUFF was @HOU after getting manhandled by BALT on SNF. I liked them in a bounceback situation but it seems they were in a hangover mode when trailing HOU 17-3 at the half. They woke up in the 2nd half to make the score 20-20 but at the end of the game with some suspect and totally bizarre play calling at the end of the game, HOU was able to easily maneuver their way to a winning fg with :00 on the clock for a final of HOU 23-20. Instead of a possible OT game, BUFF called some wacky plays deep in their own territory and gave HOU the ball back with good field position and a chance to win. And that’s just what HOU did. BUFF QB Josh Allen was terrible in this game and passed 9/30, 131yds & 1td. He didn’t have any turnovers and BUFF was lucky that HOU opened the door for them to even get a catchup in the 2nd half. BUFF looked lost in this game and if they don’t get their act together, the season may be slipping from them. L17 BUFF @NYJ, BUFF 8-9 SU & 9-8 ATS. L29 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 15-14 SU & 14-15 ATS. L29 BUFF vs NYJ, FAV 14-14 ATS 1PICK’EM. L14 BUFF vs NYJ, BUFF 9-5 SU & 7-7 ATS. BUFF 15-19-1 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 8-6 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BUFF 28-42-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 32-34-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 23-26 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NYJ 26-29-1 ATS L56 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 6-2 ATS on MNF off SU FAV loss. NYJ 10-6 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYJ 35-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYJ 41-39 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYJ 31-18 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NYJ 5-14 ATS L19 off an SU FAV loss. This game is always on the side of a dogfight and I don’t know how much new NYJ interim HC Jeff Ulbrich will bring to the table in the short term. BUFF is still in a bounceback mode with many stars and can get the ball to many players on OFF. BUFF QB Josh Allen needs to get refocused and get the OFF going better. He also needs to be more accurate on his throws, 9/30 will not cut it. For NYJ there is still QB Rodgers who looks older and older every game. As for Saleh, he was the kind of HC that needs stars on the team for the team to be good. He doesn’t develop players or even guide them which was truly evident with some of the worst performances in games under Saleh. NYJ looked totally unprepared in many games when there was plenty of time to prepare. NYJ played BUFF in week 1 last season @NYJ and this was the game that Rodgers tore his Achilles. Even though Rodgers was out, NYJ found a way to hang tough and win in OT 22-16. Does history repeat itself with a win? Usually there is a bump up when a new HC takes the reins during the season. There is a rush of new blood that courses through the team. Then it levels off. BUFF has not lost more than 2in a row since 2019 under HC Sean McDermott. NYJ #2 TOT DEF w/ #2 PASS DEF & #14 RUSH DEF. I have to tell you, I like NYJ with the points because I feel strongly that NYJ will give it a good fight with their DEF. I also like that NYJ are getting points @HOME, even if it’s less that 3pts, BUFF will win but by a margin of less than 3pts. Take the NYJ here.
THE PICK: NYJ+2 ½