2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 12
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 12 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets & Jacksonville Jaguars
Thursday November 21st, 2024 8:15pm
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2), (8-2) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (2-8), (3-7) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS CLEV+3 ½
LW, I liked PITT+3 @HOME vs BALT. Right now, PITT is playing extremely well and PITT HC Mike Tomlin has this team believing. Even though PITT had 0tds and 6fgs, they were still able to stop BALT from running wild. BALT was held to 2tds but it was the missed 2pt conversion that lost it for BALT. The final score was PITT 18-16. PITT did hold the QB Lamar Jackson-RB Derrick Henry tandem to 111yds but otherwise the PITT DEF stopped BALT when needed. PITT RBs Harris & Warren combined for 104yds on 27carries and PITT held on. It was a good win for PITT. LW, in good conscience I couldn’t pick CLEV+1 @NO. NO was @HOME and the team is healthy and looking to save their season. CLEV is just done. CLEV was down 14-6 at the half and it was 14-14 going into the 4th qtr but NO said they had enough. NO scored 3tds on 3straight possessions and CLEV had no answers. The final was NO 35-14. NO rushed for 214yds with the help of Taysom Hill who rushed for 138yds & 3tds on 7carries. CLEV RB Nick Chubb looked good with 50yds on 11carries and CLEV QB Jameis Winston spread the ball around to 6different receivers in the 4th qtr catchup. L17 PITT @CLEV PITT 9-7-1 SU & 8-9 ATS. L34 PITT vs CLEV, DOG 18-15-1 ATS. L34 PITT vs CLEV, PITT 26-7-1 SU & 19-14-1 ATS. PITT 19-20 ATS L39 as a ROAD FAV. PITT 9-6 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PITT 3-9 ATS AWAY on TNF. PITT 8-11-1 ATS after BALT. PITT 13-19 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 13-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PITT 37-36 ATS AWAY in NOV. PITT 37-25-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. PITT 44-46-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 12-13 ATS L25 AWAY in NOV. PITT 22-20-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 6-0 ATS as a div ROAD FAV <11pts vs opp off DD SU loss. PITT 10-1 ATS as a div FAV <11pts vs opp off DD SU loss. PITT 2-14 ATS AWAY off SU win vs .333<opp. PITT 11-22 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. CLEV 16-21-1 ATS L38 as a HOME DOG. CLEV 10-3 ATS on TNF. CLEV 7-2 ATS @HOME on TNF. CLEV 24-39 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 17-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 16-23 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CLEV 6-5 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm vs div opp. CLEV 4-14 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600>opp. CLEV 9-1 ATS off SU loss vs .500>opp. If this were against a team outside their division, I would say that it could be a trap game for PITT. After that nice win vs PITT, a team may come down a little bit in the next game. But, because it is vs a team in the AFC NORTH, there will be no letdown on the part of PITT. CLEV can’t seem to beat anyone and it looked that way last week @NO. PITT should be able to run wild over CLEV and that will take a lot of pressure off of PITT QB Russell Wilson. CLEV #24 RUSH DEF. Look for PITT RBs Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren to see a lot of action in this game. Then Wilson can drop passes all over the place. CLEV will try to get their run game going with RB Nick Chubb but PITT will be waiting. PITT #4 RUSH DEF. Chubb & Winston are not half as good as BALT Jackson & Henry. CLEV is another team that needs some re-evaluating in the off-season, especially @QB. Wilson has looked good in his 4games because he also does not have the wear and tear of a full season. I like for PITT to take control of this game and win by 2tds. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PITT-3 ½
Sunday November 24th, 2024 1:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (8-2), (8-2) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Chicago Bears (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (5-1) ATS CHI+3
LW, CHI+6 @HOME played GB tough. I felt that GB would beat them soundly but CHI hung in there. CHI would have pulled out the win except for a blocked fg by GB at the end of the game. CHI did get their run game going for 179yds & 1td on 34carries. CHI QB Caleb Williams played toe-to-toe with GB QB Jordan Love and didn’t have any turnovers. CHI needs to get the win. MINN is coming off a win @TENN, big deal. MINN didn’t get much of a run game going and if it wasn’t for the fact that TENN is really bad, who knows how this game may have played out. MINN got most of their scoring in the 1st half with 2tds & 1fg to lead 16-3. Then they coasted and almost dared TENN to come back. TENN could only muster 10pts while MINN ass a td to make the final score MINN 23-13. MINN stopped the run game for TENN cold and TENN had to rely solely on the pass game. L17 MINN @CHI, MINN 7-10 SU & 7-9 ATS 1NL. L34 MINN vs CHI, HOME 17-15-1 ATS 1NL. L18 CHI vs MINN, FAV 11-5-1 ATS 1NL. MINN 26-9-1 ATS L36 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 25-28 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. MINN 37-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 37-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MINN 3-9 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 2-8 ATS as a conf FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 12-5-1 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. MINN 7-0 ATS as a FAV <4pts off DD SU win. CHI 2-7 ATS after GB. CHI 20-10 ATS before DET. CHI 20-19 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. CHI 48-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 33-30-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 28-26 ATS vs NFC NORTH in NOV. CHI 8-3 ATS @HOME off BB SU losses when hosting MINN. CHI 9-4 ATS vs .500>div opp off DD SU win. MINN is a lot better vs the run than GB, MINN #1 RUSH DEF vs GB #14 RUSH DEF. CHI will have a tougher time running than vs GB. However, MINN #28 PASS DEF is very susceptible to the BIG play and CHI has some playmakers on their team. CHI QB Caleb Williams spread the ball around nicely but needs to keep doing it as he learns the NFL game. CHI is desperate for a win after starting the season surprisingly at 4-2 but have dropped 4in a row to stand at 4-6. The CHI DEF has to step up more. MINN has relied on a stop run DEF that has definitely produced. But MINN QB Sam Darnold is up and down and from game to game, you don’t know what to expect. Out in the elements which favor CHI he may have a bad game as he did @JAGS a couple of weeks ago. CHI needs to put pressure on him. If CHI does that, they can steal this game. I like CHI @HOME because they are desperate for a win and need to do something to stop the bleeding. MINN may be coming into this game looking ahead to ARZ but can’t take a division rival lightly. CHI has to show that they are improving and growing so that they can have a better 2025. There is talent on this CHI team, they just have to show it. I like CHI @HOME in a close game with some possible turnovers by MINN QB Sam Darnold being the difference.
THE PICK: CHI+3
Detroit Lions (9-1), (8-1-1) ATS, (5-0) AWAY, (4-0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (5-6), (6-4-1) ATS, 3-2) HOME, (3-1-1) ATS INDY+7 ½
LW, INDY was up 13-0 @NYJ and let NYJ get back into this game. NYJ led in this game 17-16, 24-16 & 27-22 before INDY put together a drive that led to a td and the win 28-27. INDY QB Anthony Richardson played a smart game and spread the ball around to 9different receivers as NYJ couldn’t make a stop on the last drive as Richardson ran the ball to the outside for 4yds over NYJ defenders for a td and the win with :46 left in the game. INDY was able to sack NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers 3x in the win. LW, I said DET would put up 50pts vs JAGS and they ended up putting up 52pts in the 52-6 win. JAGS were actually up 3-0 and then it was all downhill for JAGS. It was 28-3 before JAGS scored their 2nd fg. DET would put up another 24pts before the game was over. DET had 645yds of total OFF as DET QB Jared Goff was 24/29 for 412yds, 4tds & 0turnovers. DET scored more tds(7) than had incompletions (5). DET RBs David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 144yds, 3tds on 25carries. In total DET rushed for 196yds on 43carries. L5 DET vs INDY, DET 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. DET 15-6-1 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. DET 12-9 ATS 1NL before CHI. DET 6-7 ATS before Thanksgiving. DET 24-38-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 28-26-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 15-10 ATS AWAY off non-conf gm. DET 11-15 ATS after scoring 35>pts. DET 6-6 ATS after scoring 40>pts. DET 7-6 ATS as a FAV off DD SU win vs .500>opp. DET 7-10 ATS as a FAV off DD SU fav win vs >.400>opp. DET 12-1 ATS off DD ATS win. DET 9-1 ATS vs non-div opp off SUATS win. INDY 10-12-1 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. INDY 31-42-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. INDY 38-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DET is not NYJ by any means. INDY had to comeback just to beat NYJ after leading 13-0. DET beats you and your family and there’s letting up. DET HC Dan Campbell doesn’t stop coming at you until it’s over and will not stop coming at INDY. By the way, I just heard DET scored another td vs JAGS, Ha ha. Anyway, DET #3 TOT OFF vs INDY #28 TOT DEF w/#28 RUSH DEF & #26 PASS DEF. This game has the makings of another blowout. Usually, after a team wins in a blowout, they don’t score as much the next game and there is a little bit of a letdown in the scoring department. Not with DET, they keep coming at you from all sides. Look for the DET RBs 1-2 combo to do it again this weekend vs INDY. INDY doesn’t have the players to play with DET and INDY may actually back into the playoffs due to the fact that HOU is not looking as strong as last season and the other teams are terrible in the AFC SOUTH. DET wants the NFC NORTH without any doubt and they want HOME FIELD advantage in the NFC playoffs. DET HC Dan Campbell is making a statement that the NFC runs through DET. He is nit afraid to run trick plays and has the players believing in the system. Give a lot of credit to DC Aaron Glenn who has the DET DEF playing well with no letdown even in blowouts. Sometimes in blowouts, the DEF lets up a little and the other team gets garbage time points. Not DET, they play hard to the end. Lay the points here as DET rolls again.
THE PICK: DET-7 ½
New England Patriots (3-8), (4-6-1) ATS (2-4) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (4-6), (4-5-1) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (1-3-1) ATS NE+7 ½
LW, NE was down 28-22 late in the 4th qtr @HOME vs LAR and were trying to drive down the field for a winning td. I liked LAR-4 ½ and it didn’t look good until LAR intercepted a Drake Maye pass down the middle to end the game. The game was close as LAR had a 28-13 lead and then sat back while NE fought their way back. NE QB Drake Maye is looking better and better each week but needs pieces around him to have a fighting chance. With a better O-LINE he will have a better run game that will take loads of pressure off of him and open up the OFF. Then he will have time to pick apart any opposing secondaries. LW, MIA @HOME beat LV, so what. LV stinks and need a total evaluation and restructuring after the season, again. LV never gets anything right but has some pieces that other teams could use. Anyway, MIA let LV think they had a chance at winning this game and was only leading 17-12 and then 24-19 before MIA scored a td an a fg in the 4th qtr to make the final score MIA 34-19. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa & the rest of the OFF are finally getting things worked out and are looking to make that playoff run. The MIA DEF needs to keep playing well too. They can’t just show up knowing that they are playing a bad team. They need to create more opportunities for the MIA OFF. L17 NE @MIA, NE 7-10 SU & 6-11 ATS. L29 NE vs MIA, NE 13-16 ATS. L25 NE vs MIA, HOME 18-7 ATS. L25 NE vs MIA, FAV 14-11 ATS. NE 30-19-1 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. NE 40-31-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. NE 32-20-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NE 10-3-1 ATS w/revenege vs conf opp off SUATS win. NE 10-1 ATS as a div ROAD DOG 3>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 11-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. MIA 23-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in NOV. MIA 40-29-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. MIA 36-30 ATS as a FAV in NOV. MIA 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV off DD SU win. MIA 10-2 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500opp. MIA has a purpose and that is to win all the rest of their games and go deep into the playoffs. The last two games, MIA has shown that their OFF is finally coming together and the DEF is playing better too. Unfortunately, they weren’t against top quality teams @LAR on MNF & vs LV. I liked MIA vs LAR on MNF & vs LV but MIA has to show that they can convincingly beat good teams. They lost vs BUFF & ARZ before this recent win streak and they need to keep on winning. As for NE, they need quality players in many positions. They need to build an O-LINE like the one they had for Tom Brady. It can be done and then QB Drake Maye will have a fair shot at showing everyone what kind of talent he is. The NE O-LINE is terrible and NE QBs have been sacked 35x in 11games. If NE wants to turn around their fortunes of the last few seasons, they desperately need to build an O-LINE. Also, the DEF for NE also has to be aggressive. They can’t wait for opposing OFFs to come at them. These two teams met in week 5 @NE with MIA barley getting a win at 15-10. NE was driving late and had scored what appeared to be a winning td. But, the NE receiver’s foot was out of bounds and NE couldn’t get another pass into the endzone and that was the game. Is there some revenge on the minds of NE? Maybe but, thus time around Maye is the QB and not Jacoby Brissett. Maye is definitely better than Brissett but probably feels that he needs to do it all. MIA beat NE the first time around and NE feels the need to stop MIA from getting a sweep of the series. I like NE to keep it close in the warm weather of South Florida. Take NE & the points.
THE PICK: NE+7 ½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), (6-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ New York Giants (2-8), (2-8) ATS, (0-5) HOME, (0-5) ATS NYG+6
TB is coming off a bye. Before that, they gave it all they could in a loss @HOME vs SF. I liked TB as the HOME DOG+6 because TB is desperate and when a team is desperate, they play close. TB had their chances in this game but couldn’t get it done in the end and lost 23-20. SF needed a fg with :00 to win. SF missed 3fgs and TB could only turn them into 3pts. Many lost opportunities for TB. NYG are coming off a bye and before that lost in OT in Germany to CAR 20-17. It was a disastrous game for NYG with QB Daniel Jones throwing 2INTs, RB Tyrone Tracy losing a fumble and missed fg. All in all, they were down 17-7 and found a way to tie this game and send it to OT where Tracy fumbled and CAR kicked a fg to win. NYG gave up 188yds rushing &1td on 32carries to CAR. L9 TB vs NYG, TB 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS. TB 8-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. TB 13-16 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. TB 19-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. TB 14-5 ATS in 1st of BB RGs vs <.600opp. TB 29-26-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 42-32-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 8-9-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC EAST. TB 3-14-1 ATS before CAR. NYG 20-28-1 ATS L49 as a HOME DOG. NYG 8-9 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. NYG 7-9 ATS before DAL. NYG 26-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYG 26-37-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 6-6-1 ATS w/rest vs <.666opp. NYG 5-0-1 ATS L6 vs opp w/rest. TB is playing for their playoff lives. After starting out the season 4-2, TB has lost 4straight to end up 4-6. They are desperate for a win. NYG are just desperate. They have changed starting QBS from Daniel Jones to Tommie DeVito. He initiated a spark last season when he came in and beat GB. But NYG is terrible and guys don’t show up in critical moments. There is some good news for NYG players. When they leave to go to other teams, they usually do much better with their new team than with NYG. Daniel Jones has probably played his last game for NYG and NYG want to see if DeVito is the guy at a much lesser price tag than Jones. Going forward, NYG needs to draft a quality QB and need players at various positions on OFF & DEF. But, they are in desperate need of building their O-LINE where it needs to be. They haven’t addressed the O-LINE correctly since Eli Manning was the QB. However, they may have found an answer @RB with rookie RB Tyrone Tracy who has had three 100yd games in the last 6games. As for TB, QB Baker Mayfield has shown he can lead this team but injuries have decimated the OFF and TB does not have a reliable RB. Also, the DEF for TB has regressed and at times can’t stop anyone. They are just average and haven’t been blownout out but haven’t won either. TB is desperate for a win and need for something to turn around or otherwise they will not be playing football in the middle of January. TB should run the ball until the NYG defenders just fall down. It is RB by committee in TB but NYG can’t stop anyone. NYG #29 RUSH DEF. NYG can stop the pass but with Mayfield as the QB, you live by the sword and die by the sword. But like I said, TB is desperate to get something going and NYG are just going. Does DeVito give a spark to NYG? I think they get a little spark from him but again, TB is playing for their lives and cannot go 4-7. I think this game will be closer than the spread suggests because DeVito will give NYG a spark. I think TB gets the win they need but it will be hard fought and tight. I like NYG & the points here.
THE PICK: NYG+6
Dallas Cowboys (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Washington Commanders (7-4), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-1) ATS DAL+10 ½
On TNF, WASH came a little down to Earth with a loss @PHILLY 26-18. I knew PHILLY HOME FAV-3 ½ would take care of business because even though WASH is having a nice season, they haven’t really beaten anyone and PHILLY is good and only getting better. This game was WASH 10-6 going into the 4th qtr but PHILLY woke up and scored 3straight tds to blow the game open 26-10 before WASH got a dummy td to make the final score PHILLY 26-18. PHILLY rushed over WASH for 228yds & 3tds on 40 carries. On MNF, DAL was never really in the game @HOME with HOU. DAL was a HOME DOG+7 ½ and the DAL DEF couldn’t stop the HOU run game which rushed for 141yds & 3tds on 25carries. HOU was led by RB Joe Mixon who scored the 3tds. But the DEF for HOU also came up big and crushed any hope of DAL making this a game. It was 17-10 HOU in the 2nd qtr but HOU score 17unaswered pts in the 2nd half to pummel DAL 34-10. L17 DAL @WASH, DAL 11-6 SU & 9-8 ATS. L24 WASH vs DAL, DAL 14-10 ATS. L20 WASH vs DAL, ROAD 11-9 ATS. L30 WASH vs DAL, DOG 15-14 ATS 1PICK’EM. L34 WASH vs DAL, WASH 18-16 ATS. DAL 7-5-1 ATS before NYG. DAL 30-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 22-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 31-25 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 6-0 ATS as a DD DOG. DAL 14-5 ATS AWAY off DD SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss. DAL 12-2 ATS as a DOG 7>pts vs opp off SU loss. DAL 1-9 ATS after non-conf HOME gm vs opp off SUATS loss. DAL 9-9 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. DAL 2-6 ATS as a DOG vs opp w/rest. WASH 8-14 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. WASH 23-32 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. WASH 18-34 ATS as a FAV in NOV. WASH 30-37 ATS @HOME in NIV. WASH 6-17 ATS w/rest. WASH 8-14 ATS after PHILLY. WASH 11-1 ATS as a conf FAV 4>pts off BB SU losses. WASH 3-11 ATS as a conf FAV off div gm. WASH 2-7 ATS as a conf FAV >3pts off div gm. WASH 8-1 ATS L9 as a FAV >1pt off BB SUATS losses. WASH has DAL right where they want them. For two reasons is why I like WASH BIG in this game. First, WASH is in a BIG double bounceback after their loss on TNF @PHILLY. They are looking for a wild card spot after having a nice turn around. On TNF, WASH was in it until the 4th qtr but PHILLY showed WASH whos’s boss. The 2nd reason is that WASH HC Dan Quinn was the DC @DAL and this is payback for letting him go and not even considering him for HC. DAL is really bad right now and what better way to hit them when they are down then with a complete blowout? WASH #6 TOT OFF vs DAL #27 TOT DEF. DAL can’t stop anyone and they can’t run on OFF either. DAL #31 RUSH OFF. But this doesn’t mean that WASH can go to sleep every time that DAL tries to run. WASH has to shut it down and put it all on Cooper Rush’s shoulders. WASH has to make sure that DAL doesn’t get started and WASH can’t let a golden opportunity here slip away. Lay the points as WASH should romp.
THE PICK: WASH-10 ½
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1), (4-5-1) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (2-2-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (3-7), (3-7) ATS, (2-3) HOME, (2-3) ATS CAR+11
LW, the turning point of the game @BUFF for KC was the 4th & 2 for BUFF where BUFF QB Josh Allen took the ball and ran 26yds for a td. That made the score BUFF 30-21 and the game was over. Had KC had their spotter in there and stopped Allen, the score would have been BUFF 23-21 and KC would have had the ball. With the ball in KC QB Pat Mahomes’s hands and 2:17 left the game would have been had by KC. It was a hard fought game but these two teams will certainly see each other in the playoffs. CAR is coming off a bye and before that they beat NYG in Germany in OT. CAR QB Bryce Young outplayed NYG QB Daniel Jones and CAR RB Chubba Hubbard rushed for 153yds & 1td on 28carries. CAR was actually up 17-7 in the 4th qtr when NYG scored a td and then a fg with :05 left to send this game into OT. In OT, NYG got the 1st drive and fumbled with CAR getting the ball and then kicking a game winning fg to win 20-17. Honestly, two bad teams playing each other, take the bad team and the points. CAR QB Bryce Young did not turn the ball over and was happy to get the win. L5, KC vs CAR, KC 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. KC 29-27-2 ATS L58 as a ROAD FAV. KC 13-8-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. KC 36-53 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 30-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. KC 11-9 ATS before LV. KC 20-14 ATS as a non-div FAV >8pts. KC 6-10 ATS as a DD FAV vs <.400opp. KC 22-11 ATS after an SU loss. CAR 16-18-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. CAR 7-9 ATS since 2007 after their bye. CAR 15-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CAR 39-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 32-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 8-12 ATS before TB. CAR 6-8 ATS w/rest. CAR 5-9 ATS w/rest vs .500>opp. One thing you certainly don’t want to do is make Pat Mahomes mad. KC is winning ugly. But compared to other teams that have won ugly, KC & Mahomes win the BIG games and win in the playoffs. Other teams falter way short of the golden prize. After the loss @BUFF, KC will look at everything and only get better. You will see an OFF that is running smoothly and a DEF that doesn’t make mistakes. For CAR, this is their SuperBowl. CAR has a lot to look at after the season is over and they have an owner who is very impatient. CAR is not going to the playoffs. However, they will try to do everything they can to stay with KC in this game but will ultimately lose. There are some good players on CAR like RB Chubba Hubbard who opposing teams have found hard to stop and is quietly making a name for himself as a reliable RB. This certainly takes pressure off of QB Bryce Young or whoever is the QB for CAR. CAR has had 2weeks to think about this game and decide how they want to approach it. KC #3 RUSH DEF. CAR needs a well balanced attack if they want to stay close to KC in this one. Just handing the ball off to Chubbard is not going to cut it as KC is very good at shutting down the run. Is CAR up to the challenge? Could they upset KC? KC is on a bounceback but doesn’t really blow other teams out. They let you think you have a shot at winning then they close the door. CAR has to play an A+ game here just to stay close but for some reason, I think they will have a game plan that is pumped up and gives KC a run. I don’t think that CAR will win outright but they will keep it close. That’s why I like CAR & the points.
THE PICK: CAR+11
Tennessee Titans (2-8), (1-9) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Houston Texans (7-4), (4-5-2) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (1-3-1) ATS TENN+8 ½
On MNF, HOU was a BIG ROAD FAV-7 ½ @DAL. No question HOU was winning but, by how much? At times DAL beats themselves which they helped in the 34-10 win by HOU. But HOU QB CJ Stroud wasn’t as impressive, with 0tds & 1INT. The return of WR Nico Collins helped the cause for HOU and RB Joe Mixon was unstoppable with 109yds rushing & 3tds on 20carries. LW, MINN toyed with TENN. TENN could not get their run game going vs the best RUN DEF in the league and TENN QB Will Levis had to do it all alone. But with a DEF that was revved up, MINN had staked a 16-3 halftime lead and the game was essentially over. Levis was sacked 5x and the run game for TENN got a paltry 33yds. MINN coasted to a 23-13 win with no real threat of losing this game. One positive was that Lewis did spread the ball around to 9different receivers. 5L17 TENN @ HOU, TENN 7-10 SU & 5-12 ATS. L28 TENN vs HOU, TENN 8-20 ATS. L24 TENN vs HOU, HOME 13-11 ATS. L14 TENN vs HOU, TENN 5-9 ATS. TENN 9-16 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. TENN 21-32 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NV. TENN 38-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 33-35 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 9-5-1 ATS off BB SU losses vs.333>opp. TENN 13-6 ATS vs .600>opp off ATS win. HOU 13-11 ATS before JAGS. HOU 16-14-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 18-21-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 15-12 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in NOV. HOU 6-10 ATS as a HOME FAV >7pts. HOU 13-15 ATS as a HOME FAV 4>pts. HOU 9-2 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs opp w/revenge. HOU 6-0 ATS as a div FAV 14<pts after allowing 10<pts. HOU 6-3 ATS in 1st of BB div gms. HOU 12-3 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp w/revenge. HOU 1-10 ATS L11 @HOME vs <.500opp. HOU 0-6 ATS L6 as a HOME FAV 8>pts. HOU has not looked as impressive as they had last season. HOU QB CJ Stroud has more INTs than all of last season and at times doesn’t look as confident as he did in 2023. In the win vs @DAL it was all Mixon and not Stroud that led the team to victory. Plus, the DEF made the stops and created the turnovers that helped create more opportunities for HOU to score. Stroud needs to get back to what he was doing last season to make sure that this team goes on a deep run in the playoffs. Having WR Nico Collins back is a plus which opens up the OFF just a little more so that opposing DEFs need to cover a guy that could catch a big pass at any time. TENN is having a very bad season. As I have said, there are talented guys on this roster but there is not really incentive right now to turn things around. But, there are guys here playing for jobs. TENN didn’t get anything going on the ground vs MINN and that is where they need to improve to give QB Will Levis some pressure taken off of him in games. The run game has to do their job so that Levis doesn’t feel like he has to do it all alone. HOU#9 RUSH DEF. HOU DE Will Anderson is questionable for this game but he should be ready and knows what’s at stake for HOU. Even though everything is pointing towards HOU in this game, I have strong feeling that TENN will keep it close and TENN RB Tony Pollard will have a BIG day. HOU will get the win but after beating DAL BIG, there will be a little bit of a letdown which will leave the door open for the AFC SOUTH rival. Take TENN & the points here.
THE PICK: TENN+8 ½
Sunday November 24th, 2024 4:00pm
Denver Broncos (6-5), (7-4) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-8), (3-7) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS LV+5
LW, DEN @HOME gave ATL a thumping, 38-6. DEN beat ATL on both sides of the ball and gave up only 2fgs to a team that has had an explosive OFF for most of the season. But the DEN DEF put pressure on ATL QB Kirk Cousins and stopped ATL from getting their run game going. DEN held ATL to just 60yds of combined rushing and ATL punted 5x. DEN QB Bo Nix looked very good passing for 28/33 307yds, 4tds &0turnovers. He also spread the ball around to 9different receivers which kept the ATL DEF guessing all game. LW, LV gave all they could @MIA. I like MIA-7 ½ but this game was MIA 24-19 in the 4th qtr and could have gone the other way. But, bad teams find a way to lose and after MIA made the score 31-19, LV QB Gardner Minshew threw an INT which let MIA kick a fg and the game for MIA, 34-19. LV had a terrible rushing day on a combined 60yds on 16carries. Meanwhile, it seemed as if the MIA OFF could score at will as MIA Tua Tagovailoa was able to spread the ball around to 9different receivers. L17 DEN @ LV, DEN 7-10 SU & 7-10 ATS. L26 DEN vs LV, DEN 13-13 SU & 12-14 ATS. L35 DEN vs LV, ROAD 18-17 ATS. DEN 12-11 ATS L23 as a ROAD FAV. DEN 33-44 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DEN 36-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 30-26 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. DEN 19-17-1 ATS L37 div ROAD gms. DEN 17-13 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 8-0 ATS L8 as a div ROAD FAV. DEN 2-7 ATS after allowing 7<pts. DEN 3-7 ATS before MNF. DEN 0-6 ATS off SU DOG win vs .250<div opp. DEN 10-4 ATS AWAY vs <.250opp. DEN 1-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU RAOD loss. LV 20-19-2 ATS L41 as a HOME DOG. LV 11-12 ATS before KC. LV 26-38-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 43-37 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 35-22 ATS vs AFC WEST in NOV. LV 10-11-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 6-2 ATS as a HOME DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. LV 6-0 ATS as a DOG 4>pts w/rev vs opp off SU DOG win. LV 7-1 ATS w/conf revenge vs opp off SU DOG win. LV 8-0 ATS vs >.500 opp off ATS win. LV is a very bad team. This is what happens when you hire an HC that took over in the middle of the season. LV HC Antonio Pierce took over in the middle of last season and after a few bump up wins, LV hired him. But, this season has been a disaster as some part of the team seems to disappear in every game. Also, the DEF can’t stop anyone. LV #15 TOT DEF. Don’t be fooled by the ranking, the W-L record is what counts. Look for major changes to LV in the off-season. The DEN DEF is underrated and teams take them for granted. They make plays and stops that give the game to DEN. DEN#3 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. These are two teams going in opposite directions. DEN is looking good and LV is not. Even though this game is @LV and LV is desperate for a win, DEN cannot take them for granted. I like DEN to keep the pedal to the metal and win this game by at least a td. These two teams met in wk 6 @DEN with DEN winning 34-18. I don’t see any revenge on the part of LV because they don’t have the coaching or the players right now to match up with DEN. DEN is looking at a playoff spot while LV is looking at major changes. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DEN-5
San Francisco 49ers (5-5), (4-6) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (7-3), (4-6) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (2-3) ATS SF+5 ½
LW, SF was HOME FAV-7 vs SEA. SF blew a golden opportunity to put SEA to rest and at least get SF back in the right direction. The game went back and forth and the SF DEF disappeared on a last drive by SEA that culminated with SEA QB Geno Smith running untouched for a 12yd td run with :12 left in the game and a 20-17 SEA win. SF did sack Smith 4x and did turn an INT into 3pts but the DEF didn’t do enough to disrupt the SEA OFF. At times it looked like SEA was able to do what they wanted on OFF with SF not doing anything about it. SF didn’t make one stop on SEA’s last drive and it cost SF the win. LW, GB escaped with a win by blocking a last second fg attempt by CHI that would have given CHI the win. CHI was actually leading for most of this game and GB got a td with 2:59 left that looked like GB may win. But CHI put together a drive that that needed that fg to win and it was blocked. GB gave up 179yds rushing on the ground to CHI and CHI QB Caleb Williams had a pretty good day vs a GB DEF that usually is tighter against lesser teams. Now GB has to play a SF team on a bounceback. L10 SF vs GB, 3-7 SU & 5-5 ATS but ROAD 7-3 ATS. SF 18-11-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. SF 33-27-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 24-26-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SF 8-9 ATS after SEA. SF 14-15-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 4-9 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs .666>opp. GB 12-3-1 ATS after CHI. GB 39-42 ATS as a FAVin NOV. GB 34-32 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 10-2 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. GB 25-10 ATS as a FAV after div gm. GB 20-6 ATS as a FAV <8pts after div gm. SF is playing for their playoff lives. This is a very talented team but didn’t look like it last week @HOME vs SEA. They didn’t make any stops on the last drive by SEA and they didn’t take advantage of situations on OFF that could lead to more scoring. It looked like the OFF was stagnated and moving in slow motion. SF needs more involvement from RB Christian McCaffrey to be successful. Look for him to be more involved which will draw more attention to him from the GB DEF and open up the field to other players on OFF. As for GB, they should have lost last week @CHI but got very lucky. They were a heavy ROAD FAV and also played not to lose. SF WR Deebo Samuel has to be more involved in the OFF as well. He is very explosive and can hurt any DEF. GB QB Jordan Love is known for turnovers as he has 11INTS & 4lost fumbles in 8games. SF needs to get to him and put pressure on him all day. GB has talent on OFF but is not known for putting a lot of points up on the board. Also, their DEF can disappear as it did vs CHI. Who has GB beaten? INDY, @TENN, @LAR, ARZ, barely HOU, barely @JAGS & barely @CHI. Not too convincing. Both of these teams have something to play for. SF is on the bounceback while GB narrowly escaped defeat. SF has a better DEF than GB. SF #6 TOT DEF is better all around while GB #12 TOT DEF. The best GB can hope for is a wild card spot out of the NFC NORTH while SF could actually win outright in the NFC WEST because the race is so tight. But in this game I have to give the edge to SF because they are more in a desperate situation than GB. This game could come down to the wire but I like SF to win outright.
Due to QB Brock Purdy & DE Nick Bosa being ruled out, the spread went from SF+2 1/2 to SF +5 1/2 on Saturday.
THE PICK: SF+5 ½
Arizona Cardinals (6-4), (6-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (5-5), (4-5-1) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (2-4) ATS ARZ+1
LW, SEA had a nice win @SF. No one expected them to win this game as SF was a HOME FAV-7. SEA hung tough with SF as this game was always in reach for either team but it was SEA who made stops against a cagey SF OFF. The lead went back and forth in the 3rd qtr and the 4th with SEA putting together a very late drive that culminated with SEA QB Geno Smith running for 13yds as the game winner with :12 left for a 20-17 SEA win. SEA’s DEF played extremely well in this game, limiting SF to 2tds & 1fg. ARZ is coming off a bye and before that they were @HOME vs NYJ. ARZ beat up NYJ 31-6 in a game that saw the ARZ DEF hold NYJ to just 2fgs. I liked ARZ as a HOME DOG+1 ½ because NYJ are overrated and just not that good. ARZ ran the ball for 147yds &3tds on 32carries while limiting NYJ to 79yds on the ground. ARZ also sacked NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers 3x and forced him to fumble while ARZ Kyler Murray had an almost perfect day with 22/24 passing for 266yds, 1td & 0turnovers. Murray picked apart the NYJ DEF while the ARZ DEF made stops that gave ARZ more opportunities to score in the 31-6 ARZ win. L17 ARZ @SEA, ARZ 8-9 SU & 9-8 ATS. L28 ARZ vs SEA, ARZ 11-15-2 ATS. L21 ARZ vs SEA, ROAD 15-5-1 ATS. ARZ 6-9-2 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. ARZ 11-10 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. ARZ 32-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 46-50 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 28-32 ATS vs NFC WEST in NOV. ARZ 9-3 ATS w/rest vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 4-0 ATS L4 vs opp off SU DOG win. ARZ 9-1 ATS L10 as a ROAD DOG 14<pts vs opp off SU win. SEA 14-6 ATS after SF. SEA 29-24 ATS vs NFC WEST. SEA 33-39 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 35-43 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 7-7 ATS L14 after div ROAD gm. SEA 5-8 ATS as a div HOME FAV <10pts. SEA won last week after winning only 1x in 6games. Before their bye, ARZ has won 4in a row to take the lead in the NFC WEST. SEA is hard to figure out from game to game because their DEF can disappear and because QB Geno Smith can become a liability at times with indecisions and turnovers. ARZ looks like things are finally coming together and their DEF is playing a lot better. ARZ has beaten LAR, SF, LAC, @MIA, CHI & NYJ. There are a couple of playoff bound teams in that mix. SEA had losses to @DET, NYG, SF, BUFF, LAR and only won @ATL before finally winning @SF last week. SEA was certainly looking at having a down season before last week. SEA has won the last 5straight vs ARZ so there may be some revenge on the minds of ARZ to win this one. This game may be more of an OFF shootout because neither team has a top DEF. ARZ #21 TOT DEF w/ #19 RUN DEF & #21 PASS DEF. SEA #22 TOT DEF w/#27 RUN DEF & #15 PASS DEF. Both teams have mobile QBs in Murray & Smith. Both teams have viable rushers. This game is pretty evenly matched and Murray has won @SEA. But I like ARZ in this game because ARZ is playing more solidly than SEA. There may be a little bit of a drop off after the big win @SF for SEA. Right now, SEA is not used to winning while ARZ is trying to put something together week to week. I give the edge to ARZ here as this game should be decided by a fg. I really don’t see either team winning in a blowout or even a margin that is more than one score. I like ARZ here in almost a PICK’EM game because they are playing for something and looking to extend their lead in the NFC WEST.
THE PICK: ARZ+1
Sunday November 24th, 2024 8:20pm
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2), (6-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (5-5), (5-5) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS LAR+3
LW, LAR beat @NE 28-22, so what! It took an INT at the end of the game to secure the win for LAR. NE was driving and NE QB Drake Maye took a chance but he didn’t see LAR DB Kamren Kinchens playing centerfield and intercepted the pass. LAR WRs Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua had their nice game & RB Kyren Williams rushed for 86yds but the LAR DEF gave up a lot and NE was able to creep back into this game and possibly pull it out at the end. LW on TNF, PHILLY @HOME did what they had to do to beat WASH. This game was actually WASH 10-6 in the 4th qtr when PHILLY decided they had enough. PHILLY scored 3straight tds with help of a WASH INT to blow the game open for a PHILLY lead, 26-10. WASH added a td at the end to make the score PHILLY 26-18 but PHILLY really turned it on when they needed it. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley was unstoppable with 146yds rushing & 2tds on 26carries. PHILLY didn’t have a turnover and PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts spread the ball around to 6different receivers. L9 PHILLY vs LAR, PHILLY 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS. PHILLY 18-24 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 14-12-1 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 9-14 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 3-7 ATS as a FAV 3>pts in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 46-36-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 36-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. PHILLY 7-20 ATS vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 4-9 ATS AWAY vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 7-10 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 5-15 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 11-6 ATS w/rest vs .600<opp. PHILLY 3-16 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp off SUATS win. PHILLY 5-17 ATS AWAY off SU win vs non-div opp. LAR 12-12-1 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. LAR 5-8 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAR 6-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAR 18-43-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 24-43-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAR 3-14 ATS w/revenge vs .500> non-div opp. LAR has weapons on OFF but a good DEF slows them down. PHILLY is at another level and LAR are way behind PHILLY. PHILLY #5 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF & #22 PASS OFF vs LAR #23 TOT DEF w/#18 RUSH DEF & #22 PASS DEF. LAR hasn’t played anyone or beaten anyone that you could look at and say wow. LAR has beaten SF, LV, MINN @SEA & @NE. Only one team there is headed for the playoffs. The schedule for LAR is weak and they could actually back themselves into the playoffs. But PHILLY is finally getting things together and are right now a sleeper to go deep into the NFC playoffs. They are beating teams with confidence and the DEF is making a difference as well. LAR is playing the schedule they have been given and they will not go far in the playoffs, if they make them. The LAR DEF is not that good and only good against teams with weak OFF weapons. I like PHILLY here BIG as LAR will have a high feeling after they just beat a bad NE team. They will see what it is like to play a real team. Unless PHILLY gets cute they should cruise over LAR. By the way, who is stopping RB Saquon Barkley? The answer is, no one. He is on a mission. I like PHILLY here and lay the points. PHILLY should win by at least ten points.
THE PICK: PHILLY-3
Monday November 25th, 2024 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (7-4), (6-5) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), (7-2-1) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (4-0-1) ATS LAC+3
LW, BALT @PITT was going to be a tight game. I liked PITT+3 @HOME and PITT delivered but, it was close. BALT rushed for a combined 124yds with the bulk of it from QB Lamar Jackson & RB Derrick Henry. But when BALT needed it in the closing minutes, Henry was on the sidelines, go figure. I thought it was suspect play calling because BALT could have at least used him as a decoy that would have pulled the PITT DEF in different directions. Without Henry on the field, PITT could focus their attention more on Jackson. It was a 2pt conversion that was the difference in this game and BALT did not have Henry on the field for the attempt. PITT won 18-16 even though BALT held PITT to 6fgs. This game could have definitely gone either way. LW on SNF, LAC gave up 100yds rushing to a team that has no run game. LAC was lucky to get the win because CINNCY missed 2fg down the stretch that would put LAC in a bind after leading 27-6. I said that the LAC DEF goes to sleep and they certainly did. Plus, they let CINNCY come back and nearly steal the game. The LAC OFF also went to sleep in the 2nd half by playing very conservative and not being aggressive. Some suspect play calling on the part of LAC which almost cost them the game. LAC QB Justin Herbert did not complete 50% of his passes and needed help from RBs JK Dobbins & Gus Edwards to pull this one out, 34-27. L10 BAT vs LAC, BALT 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS. BALT 25-19-1 ATS L45 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 10-3-2 ATS on MNF. BALT 7-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. BALT 11-11 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. BALT 45-35-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 35-30-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. BALT 11-13 ATS L24 vs AFC WEST. BALT 10-9 ATS after PITT. BALT 10-10 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 14-18 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 9-9 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss. BALT 8-0 ATS off SUATS loss vs >.500opp. BALT 14-2 ATS after div RAOD gm vs non-div opp. BALT 10-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge off BB SU wins. LAC 5-3 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. LAC 7-2 ATS as a DOG on MNF vs non-div opp. LAC 7-10-2 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. LAC 30-40 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 38-31-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 4-14 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs .400>opp. LAC 12-1 ATS as a DOG 5<pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. How many yds is LAC going to give up to BALT #2RUSH OFF? Plus, BALT is not one of those teams that stops scoring once they have a lead. They know that team can all of a sudden get hot. LAC was lucky to win last week. I’m not impressed because LAC hasn’t beaten anyone with a winning record except upstart DEN. LAC has beaten LV, @CAR, @DEN, NO, @CLEV, TENN & CINNCY. LAC has lost to @PITT, KC, & @ARZ. See a trend? BALT is on a bounceback here and needs to keep up with PITT for the AFC NORTH title. BAT cannot afford to lose to a team that has not beaten anyone. BALT QB Lamar Jackson knows what is at stake and will take control of this game. These two teams met in wk 12 of 2023 @LAC with BALT winning, 20-10. LAC had Brandon Staley as their HC and later he was fired and Jin Harbaugh was signed in the off-season. This is also a game with the Harbaugh brothers going head to head. John Harbaugh beat Joim Harbaugh in 2012 when BALT beat SF in the SuperBowl. Does Jim get his revenge here? I don’t think so because LAC will think they have it without making any adjustments. Had they lost, they would take a different approach. BALT is certainly looking at what they could do better this week and the matchups. But I like BALT to run over LAC on the ground and then drop some passes here and there. LAC will try to come back but the BAL DEF will tighten up. Lay the points here as BALT & HC John Harbaugh beat Jim Harbaugh & LAC.
THE PICK: BALT-3
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