2024 NFL SEASON WEEK 3
2024 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 3 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday September 19th, 2024 8:15pm
New England Patriots (1-1), (1-0-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ New York Jets (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS NE+7
LW, NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers finally looked decent. He had 0turnovers and passed for 2tds. The run game helped him out by rushing for 101yds to take pressure off of Rodgers. But the DEF for NYJ came up BIG @TENN in the last minute that could have either tied the game or won it for TENN with a 2pt conversion. NYJ DEF knocked the ball away on a 4th down that was headed for around the endzone. However, NYJ gives up a lot of yds rushing, 130yds. The final score was NYJ 24-17 but in the 4th qtr, one mistake could have turned the game the other way. That’s how close it was. LW, NE was @HOME vs SEA. I liked NE+3 here and I felt strongly they could win the game outright. They were leading 201-7 late but the NE DEF ran out of gas and gave up a a late fg which sent the game to OT. In OT SEA got the ball back and marched down the field and kicked a fg to win 23-20. NE QB Jacoby Brisett played a decent game and the RBS for NE took a lot of pressure off of him by rushing for 177yds. The NE DEF stopped the SEA run game to 46yds. But the secondary could stop SEA and 327yds was had through the air. NE needs to play better. It was a tight game and should have gone the other way. NE did sack SEA QB Geno Smith 3x but he had plenty of time to hit his receivers. In the end, NE gave it a good fight. L17 NE @NYJ, NE 13-4 SU & 9-8 ATS. L27 NE vs NYJ, ROAD 14-13 ATS. L27 NE vs NYJ, NE 24-3 SU &&15-11-1 ATS. L24 NE vs NYJ, NE 12-12 ATS. L16 NE vs NYJ, NE 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS. NE 14-8 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NE 6-2-1 ATS on TNF off non-div gm. NE 4-2-1 ATS AWAY on TNF. NE 2-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. NE 30-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. NE 19-21-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NE 23-29 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NE 3-4 ATS as a DOG vs .500> opp. NE NYJ 1-3 ATS as a HOME FAV on TNF. NYJ 2-7 ATS L9 on TNF. NYJ 4-5 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. NYJ 6-2 ATS vs div on TNF. NYJ 2-4 ATS @HOME on TNF. NYJ 5-18 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYJ 26-24 ATS vs AFC EAST in SEPT. NYJ 21-37 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NYJ 19-23 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NYJ 6-8-1 ATS L15 HOME openers. The O-LINE for NE is a little better and that is what will be the difference in this game. The NYJ D-LINE will try to tee off and Brissett will not be able to have time to do what he wants to do. LW, NYJ DE Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles @TENN & is out for the season. He will be missed. As much as I like Brissett with no time back there it is impossible for anyone to get anything going. NE has a tough DEF and didn’t give up much to SEA but when you are on the field a lot you get tired and that’s what happened. But, NE also has a 1-2 punch at RB that can get the job done. NE is coming off an OT game. NE 10-2 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. NE DEF needs to put pressure on Rodegrs and not let him stand back there with time and pick them apart. If they can do that and create turnovers, they have a chance to win the game. The NE DEF cannot let NYJ march up and down the field. On OFF, NE needs to take advantage of opportunities. These are always hard fought games between NE & NYJ. This will be a closer game than the spread suggests and I like NE to keep it close.
THE PICK: NE+7
Sunday September 22nd, 2024 1:00pm
New York Giants (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS NYG+6 ½
LW, NYG should have beat WASH @WASH. But, this is all HC Brian Daboll’s fault. He knew his kicker Graham Gano was hurting on Saturday. What did Daboll do? Nothing. Gano was hurt worse on the opening kickoff and NYG was without a kicker for the game. No kicks and a game plan that went kablooey. NYG lost 21-18 because they couldn’t kick a fg when they needed it or an extra point. Six points minimum were lost because of Daboll’s stupidity. I say stupidity because he should know better. NYG looked decent vs WASH with NYG not turning the ball over and passing for 2tds. RB Devin Singletary rushed for 95yds and WR Malik Nabers caught 10passes for 127yds. If I just told you those numbers you would have thought NYG won, right? It doesn’t get better for NYG. LW, CLEV @JAGS could have gone either way. But CLEV looked a lot better than they did the week before @HOME vs DAL. CLEV was able to get to JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence 4x and sacked him in the endzone for a late game safety which forced JAGS to go for a td instead of a fg. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson looked much better and spread the ball around to 9different receivers. This keeps opposing DEFs off balance and should keep NYG guessing. The CLEV DEF only allowed 1td vs JAGS which was a complete upgrade from the week before. The RB by committee is working well to take pressure off of Watson. CLEV should be able to run up a storm this week as NYG gave up 215yds rushing LW to WASH, ugh! L5 NYG vs CLEV, NYG 3-2 SU 7 3-2 ATS. NYG 12-6-1 ATS after WASH. NYG 6-9 ATS before DAL. NYG 11-11-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 9-10-1 ATS as a DOG in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 5-7-2 ATS as a DOG 9<pts in 2nd of BB RGs. NYG 30-25-2 ATS AWAY in SEPT. 32-33-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. NYG 15-11 ATS L26 before DIV HOME gm. CLEV 22-23 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CLEV 9-14 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CLEV 18-24-2 ATS L44 vs NFC. CLEV 3-10 ATS L13 vs NFC EAST. CLEV 5-10-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CLEV 5-10-1 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEV 5-20-2 ATS off SU DOG win. CLEV 28-25-5 ATS since 2003 as a HOME FAV vs non-div. CLEV 9-5 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS loss. CLEV knows that they need to start winning on a consistent basis. This is a game that CLEV needs to bring out all the stops. They cannot lose to a team like NYG, especially @HOME. CLEV QB Deshaun Watson needs a light’em up game where his stats are off the charts. This should be that game. The NYG is ripe for the picking because they showed who they are vs MINN. Plus, NYG can’t stop the run. See the afore mentioned 215yds rushing by WASH. CLEV has a much better DEF than WASH and showed it LW @JAGS. The O-LINE is still bad for NYG but was decent vs a bad D-LINE for WASH. WASH only sacked Jones 1x. This is a redemption game for CLEV as they need to put a string of wins together to show that they can go far into the playoffs. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: CLEV-6 ½
Green Bay Packers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS GB+2 ½
LW, GB was @HOME vs INDY. I liked INDY in that game on a bounceback but GB turned the game around and didn’t allow INDY to see the endzone until it was too late in the game. GB won 16-10. Also, GB rushed for 261yds which helped keep the INDY OFF off the field. Plus, the GB DEF intercepted INDY QB Anthony Richardson 3x which stopped drives from turning into points. The DEF for GB was huge while on OFF the RBs provided a cushion for Malik Willis that a huge amount of pressure was taken off his back. LW, TENN was @HOME vs NYJ. This game was tight and went back and forth. It was tied 17-17 in the 4th qtr when NYJ scored a td and TENN couldn’t get in the endzone in the last gap of the 4th qtr. That was the difference. The TENN DEF didn’t create any turnovers and NYJ QB Aaron Rodgers had something to prove after their loss on MNF @SF. TENN needs to find a formula for winning. TENN was winning 17-0 @CHI in week 1 and then the roof fell in and they lost 24-17. This past week, TENN had their chances but didn’t make the most of it. TENN has said that Levis is their #1 QB but his O-LINE is also not the greatest and at times he is on the run. He was sacked 4x vs NYJ. The O-LINE must do a better job if TENN has any chance of winning. The same thing happened @CHI, week 1. L6 GB vs TENN, GB 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS. GB 4-8 ATS before MINN. GB 28-29 ATS AWAY in SEPT. GB 31-18 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. GB 23-27-2 ATS L52 vs AFC. GB 16-4 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 10-11 ATS off SU DOG win. GB 2-8 ATS as a DOG <5pts vs <.500opp. GB 10-2-1 ATS as a non-div DOG. GB 9-0 ATS as a non-div DOG vs opp off SUATS loss. TENN 8-13-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. TENN 35-27 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TENN 22-30 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TENN 9-3-1 ATS off BB Su losses vs .333>opp. GB QB Jordan Love has been up and around this week in practice but that doesn’t mean he’s playing this week. I doubt GB wants to rush their QB back so quickly from his knee injury. Anyhow, QB Malik Willis is probably foaming at the bit to get a shot at the team that traded him away in the off-season. Willis knows TENN very well even though they have added some guys on DEF that weren’t there last season. The TENN OFF has added some guys but it looks like the O-LINE is still a problem. GB puts pressure on opposing QBs, just ask INDY QB Richardson. That will be a BIG difference here. Take the points as GB finds a way to beat TENN @TENN. Even though TENN is desperate for a win, they are facing a GB team that needs to keep pace in the NGC NORTH. On top of that the O-LINE for TENN isn’t good and that is the problem here. Look for forced turnovers by the GB DEF that will make the difference in this game. TENN QB Levis has been hot and cold but with this O-LINE he hasn’t had a decent chance to do anything. Take GB here.
THE PICK: GB+2 ½
Chicago Bears (1-1), (2-0) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (0-2), (0-1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-0-1) ATS CHI+1 ½
LW, CHI @HOU was in it to the end. I liked CHI+6 ½ and they lost 19-13. But in the defeat CHI QB Caleb Williams was sacked 7x. The O-LINE is terrible for CHI and the only thing saving this team is their DEF. The O-LINE has to play better, period. Williams has to play better as well. Hi stats aren’t looking that great and part of the reason is the O-LINE. But he needs to read the DEFs better. CHI has talented receivers, Williams just needs to get the ball to them. LW, INDY lost a game they should have won. INDY was playing against GB QB Malik Willis instead of Jordan Love. But the INDY DEF gave up 261yds rushing and INDY QB Anthony Richardson had 3INTS. In two games, he has 4INTS and 2fumbles. INDY played catchup in the game from the outset as GB took a 10-0 lead in the 1st qtr and couldn’t catchup, losing 16-10. L5 CHI vs INDY, INDY 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. CHI 11-9-2 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CHI 24-36 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CHI 35-37 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CHI 15-11-1 ATS AWAY vs non-conf. CHI 0-11-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG <7pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 0-11-1 ATS AWAY vs opp off SU FAV loss. CHI 5-19-1 ATS as a DOG vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 13-6-2 ATS in 1st in BB HGs. INDY 27-31-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. INDY 32-31 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. INDY 26-15-1 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 18-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 14-3 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. INDY 15-8 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. This is certainly a game that could go either way based on a turnover late in the game. What I like about CHI is that they are decent vs the run. INDY likes to run, especially their QB Anthony Richardson. He is not a passer but a runner. If CHI stops the run, Richardson will have to pass and he is not good at it. CJ Stroud is a complete opposite. Richardson is still learning the QB position in the pros. For CHI, their O-LINE better get it together soon or QB Caleb Williams will have a short career. He can’t do anything with constant pressure on every play. Also, the INDY DEF is terrible vs the run. The INDY DEF gave up 213yds rushing week 1 vs HOU & 261yds rushing last week @GB. Those are college numbers. CHI better run the ball like crazy to get pressure off of Caleb. Because of all these factors, I like CHI by a td.
THE PICK: CHI+1 ½
Houston Texans (2-0), (0-1-1) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS MINN+2
LW, MINN @HOME played a great game vs SF. MINN took control of this game early and SF played catchup to no avail. MINN won 23-17 and they played tough DEF when it was needed. MINN WR Justin Jefferson had 4 catches for 133yds & 1td but left with a quadriceps injury. As of this writing, he is playing in this game. MINN QB Sam Darnold spread the ball around to 6different receivers that kept the SF DEF on its toes. Darnold has been playing decent enough for MINN to have a balanced attack and win their 1st two games. He is also showing everyone that he has worthy of playing in this league after looking mighty bad with NYJ. The MINN DEF played very well and sacked SF QB Brock Purdy 6x, intercepted him 1x and recovered one of his fumbles. It was a team effort win. LW on SNF, HOU was @HOME vs CHI. Just looking at certain stats, you would have thought that HOU blew out CHI. But, HOU only beat CHI 19-13. The HOU DEF did sack CHI QB Caleb Williams 7x and intercepted him 2x. But the O-LINE for CHI is terrible and Williams is under pressure all game. HOU RB Joe Mixon hurt his ankle and is questionable for this game. I doubt he plays in this game. The CHI DEF didn’t give up much and CHI was in the game until the end. HOU only scored 3pts in the whole 2nd half after leading at the half, 16-10. L5 HOU vs MINN, MINN 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. HOU 5-7-1 ATS L13 a s a ROAD FAV. HOU 13-10 ATS before JAGS. HOU 13-12-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. HOU 19-19-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. HOU 1-9 ATS off BB SU wins. HOU 7-4-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. HOU 7-1-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts off SU win. HOU 3-13 ATS AWAY vs non-conf opp. HOU 10-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV <9pt off SU win. MINN 9-6 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. MINN 8-7 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. MINN 11-9 ATS before GB. MINN 37-28-2 ATS @HOME in SEPT. MINN 33-23-4 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MINN 16-8 ATS vs .700> opp. MINN 2-9 ATS @HOME off BB SU wins. MINN 5-11 ATS off SU DOG win vs .500> opp. Hopefully, there will be no letdown for MINN after their nice win vs SF. HOU is a talented team but only beat CHI by 6pts. There is no doubt that HOU QB CJ Stroud is a good QB but this game is tougher than looks on paper. RB Joe Mixon is out and RB Cam Akers is in. Akers played briefly in MINN last season after being traded there from LAR. Does he have a bone to pick with MINN? The MINN DEF is very talented and better than the CHI DEF. Stroud may have a lot of pressure on him as opposed to sitting in the pocket and picking the MINN DEF apart. This should be a good game with game going down to the wire. It could be that a fg decides this game either way but I like MINN @HOME with a couple of points to boot.
THE PICK: MINN+2
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS PHILLY+2 ½
LW on MNF, PHILLY was ripe for the pickings because ATL was in desperation for a win. PHILLY left the door open with a 21-15 lead and ATL came through with a late 4th qtr drive that resulted in a td and the win 22-21. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts is not the same as he was in 2022. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley has adjusted nicely to his new team but Hurts continues to play like he did in 2023 and not 2022. I liked ATL +6 ½ for just those reasons. LW, NO went to DAL and held a stickup. They scored tds on their first five possessions and the score was NO 35-16 at the half. Forget DAL, they didn’t know what hit them and the DAL DEF was left in the dust. As I say later on, the difference is OC Klint Kubiak. DAL was caught off guard and RB Alvin Kamara has come back to become a one man wrecking crew. The NO DEF played well too, forcing 2INTS and sacked DAL QB Dak Prescott 3x. NO QB Derek Carr is playing better too. L9 PHILLY vs NO, NO 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS, incl HOME 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS. PHILLY 7-14 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PHILLY 25-35 ATS AWAY in SEPT. PHILLY 18-23 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. PHILLY 12-21 ATS vs .666>conf opp. PHILLY 4-12 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 1-9 ATS L10 off SU loss vs conf opp off SU DOG win. PHILLY 1-9 ATS as a DOG in 1st of BB RGs. NO 11-4 ATS before ATL. NO 28-27-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. NO 26-34-2 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. NO 40-38-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 15-8 ATS off SU DOG win. NO 10-12 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 8-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off SU FAV loss. There are BIG differences for both teams as to where they are and to where they are going. For NO it is their new OFF coordinator. Klint Kubiak has rewritten the playbook for NO with all kinds of shiftings, movements and play action. This has kept CAR & DAL off balance. CAR is plain terrible but vs DAL, DAL had 0answers. NO scored tds on their first five possessions. This has taken so much pressure off of QB Derek Carr. He has looked very comfortable in the pocket and can easily pick a receiver. RB Alvin Kamara has come back stronger and is more involved in the OFF. For PHILLY, HC Nick Sirianni pushed out the former OC & DC and brought in new ones. The players need to get accustomed to brand new schemes on both sides of the ball and that takes time. Plus, PHILY QB Jalen Hurts is not playing like he did 2 years ago. The NO DEF will be on the lookout for Hurts taking off as he so often does. But NO will be ready because PHILLY like to go heavy with Hurts. When I say this, the game pan is focused on him passing & running. If NO can put the pressure on him and keep Hurts in the box, they can neutralize him greatly. I think they can do it and I would lay the points here. I don’t see an upset, I see NO at 3-0.
THE PICK: NO-2 ½
Los Angeles Chargers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) AWAY, (1-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS LAC+1 ½
LW, LAC @CAR was nothing more than a tune up game. CAR is a disaster and they are lucky that it wasn’t worse than 26-3. LAC was up 20-0 at the half and coasted in the 2nd half. They rushed for 219yds vs CAR and probably could have rushed for more. LAC QB Justin Herbert had a so-so game with 1INT & 1lost fumble. He needs to focus better. He has the talent and he’ll need it this week vs PITT. LW, PITT played @DEN. PITT QB Justin Fields played a decent game and didn’t turn the ball over. Plus, the rushing game helped him out with 114yds outside of his 27yds. The PITT DEF also helped out with 2INTS of DEN QB Bo Nix and held DEN to just 2fgs in a 13-6 win. L9 LAC vs PITT, PITT 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS incl AWAY team 7-2 ATS. LAC 6-17-2 ATS before KC. LAC 11-8-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LAC 31-24-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. LAC 28-24 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. PITT 21-37 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. PITT 25-30 ATS @HOME in SEPT. PITT 11-14 ATS L25 vs AFC WEST. PITT 20-19-1 ATS as a conf FAV 6<pts. PITT 14-4 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 13-4 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. LAC better bring their A-game this week @PITT. This is not CAR and the DEF for PITT creeps up on you if you are not prepared. PITT LB TJ Watt is all over the field and he wrecks havoc on opposing teams. He already has 2 sacks, 1pass deflection and a fumble recovery. Hence, PITT played DEN LW with a rookie QB but it doesn’t matter. He does it against veterans as well. LAC DEF better find a way to stop the run. They gave up 90 yds to CAR and PITT likes to run with Justin Fields as their QB. LAC needs to keep Fields in the pocket and not let him run or let anyone else get going or otherwise it will be over for LAC. For LAC & QB Justin Herbert, they need to take what the PITT DEF gives them and try to neutralize Watt. LAC can run the ball too with RBs JK Dobbins & Gus Edwards but, LAC needs t show that it is effective so that Herbert can pick apart the secondary. If, & I mean if they stick to the game plan, Fields & Watt will be neutralized and LAC could win this game nicely. LAC needs to score a lot because PITT doesn’t give up much. I like LAC here if they stick to the game plan.
NEWS: If QB Justin Herbert does not play for LAC because of his ankle, I like PITT. If he plays, I like LAC. I keep posted.
THE PICK: LAC+1 ½
Denver Broncos (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS DEN+6 ½
LW, TB QB Baker Mayfield and CO had a nice last minute td in a win 20-16 @DET. DET doesn’t go away easily & Mayfield led a nice drive that sealed the 20-16 win with :34 seconds in the game. Mayfield is a gunslinger and it has gotten him into some trouble in the past. He was sacked 5x in this game but fortunately didn’t lose two fumbles. THE RBs need to get more yardage so that Mayfied feels that he doesn’t need to win by himself. LW, DEN managed a measely 2fgs @HOME vs PITT. DEN rookie QB Bo Nix is struggling but the run game for DEN is not helping him out. THE RBS have rushed for 64yds in week 1 and 39yds in week 2. This is not helping a young QB. Hence DEN lost 13-6. DEN needs to get a better run game going. DEN HC Sean Payton should know that or his QB will be failing week after week. Nix had 2INTS in this game which fortunately was only turned into 3pts. But in a tight game such as this, every turnover and point counts. The PITT DEF played a BIG art in this game by making sure the DEN OFF went nowhere and couldn’t score points. L5 DEN vs TB, DEN 4-1 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. DEN 15-12 ATS in 1st of BB Rgs. DEN 20-18 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DEN 31-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DEN 9-13 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 5-11 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. TB 9-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. TB 25-30-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. TB 25-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. TB 4-8-3 ATS as a HOME FAV vs opp off BB SUlosses. TB 1-6 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV >2pts vs opp off BB SU losses. TB 5-0 ATS L5 as a HOME FAV off SU non-div ROAD DOG win. TB is playing against a rookie QB who has struggled a little bit in his first two games. TB HC Todd Bowles is a Defensive specialist and should have no problem dialing up different looks and confusing alignments against a rookie QB in Bo Nix. However, on OFF, TB needs to get more people involved. They can’t be predictable and go to the usual guys. Opposing DEFs will be ready. DEN does have solid guys on DEF but, when you are on the field a lot, you get tired. Mayfield can do that to you. LW, the DEN DEF held PITT to just 1td but, that was QB Justin Fields. He is not a prolific passer. After a nice win on the road for TB, they should have no problem with DEN. But if they start to get sloppy and careless, TB could easily lose a game that they are the FAV. I like TB here laying the points. TB should win by at least 10pts.
THE PICK: TB-6 ½
Sunday September 22nd, 2024 4:00pm
Carolina Panthers (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS CAR+4 ½
LW, CAR @HOME took another thumping. This time it was LAC’s turn. LAC rushed for 219 yds led by RB JK Dobbins and his 131yds. This let LAC QB Justin Herbert to seemingly pick the CAR secondary apart. The score was LAC 20-0 at the half and it could have been worse. CAR punted 5x and had 1INT in the 1st half. The final score was LAC 26-3. CAR can’t stop anyone and they can’t score. There are problems with this team on both sides of the ball. Also, CAR QB Bryce Young can’t seem to find the open man when he has the chance. LW, LV was down 23-13 in the 4th qtr @BALT and it looked like BALT would score more points. But LV got a second and third wind and put the clamps on BALT on both sides of the ball and accomplished the BIG upset 26-23. LV QB Gardner Minshew had composure with his passes and went 30/38 276yds with 1td & 1INT. He was sacked 5x but didn’t fumble. LV rushed for a paltry 27yds but they got the win. BALT was stunned and in the end they couldn’t get anything going. DE Maxx Crosby had 2 sacks, one which was crucial in the 4th qtr. It was a great win all around for LV. L5 CAR vs LV, LV 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS. CAR 25-26-2 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CAR 21-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. CAR 14-17 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 2-10 ATS off DD SU loss vs non-conf opp. CAR 11-5 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 10-3 ATS as a DOG 3>pts vs opp off SU DOG win. CAR 1-9 AST L10 AWAY off BB SU losses. LV 9-10-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. LV 26-32 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LV 23-27 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. LV 8-15-3 ATS L26 @HOME vs NFC. LV 9-10 ATS @HOME off SU DOG win. LV 3-20-1 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 1-16 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off BB SU losses. LV 2-13 ATS L15 @HOME vs <.500 non-conf opp. This week I hope there is no letdown by LV. They may say that CAR is nothing but LV has to stick to the plan. They need to get their running game going. CAR has given up 180 yds rushing & 219yds rushing in the 1st two games. How many yards will they give up this week? CAR is a mess and it starts with QB Bryce Young. He doesn’t read DEFs particularly well and he doesn’t get the ball to his receivers. The X factor for LV, DE Maxx Crosby. He is all over the place and probable can’t wait to wreak havoc on CAR. This game has blowout written all over it unless LV has a letdown after a BIG WIN @BALT. LV HC Antonio Pierce has this team believing and he can’t have a letdown, especially in front of the HOME fans. So, it’s been decided that CAR QB Bryce Young has been benched and Andy Dalton will start for CAR. Will it make a difference? He started one game @SEA last season and threw 58x in a loss 37-27. He was sacked 3x but did not throw an INT. I still like LV to win by a td. LV should be able to run all day. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: LV-4 ½
Miami Dolphins (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0), (1-0-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS MIA+5
LW, on TNF MIA lost the game 31-10 and their QB, Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion. This concussion is his 3rd or 4th in a very short time. Skylar Thompson came in and did what he could but at 31-10 in the 2nd half, there wasn’t much he could do. This game started out 7-7 but BUFF went on a tear and MIA could not catchup. Plus, the DEF for MIA didn’t stop the Josh Allen Express. Also, Tua threw a PICK6 before he was concussed which didn’t help matters either. The DEF for MIA needs to step it up. LW, SEA was in a battle of their own @NE. I liked NE @HOME +3 and I felt strongly that the DEF for NE would keep SEA in check. The NE DEF did stop the run but SEA QB Geno Smith lit up the NE DEF for 33/44 for 327yds, 1td & 0INTS. SEA WRs DK Metcalf & Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a combined 22 catches for 246yds & 1td. Even with those stats, SEA needed a late game fg to tie it at 20-20 and then another fg in OT to win 23-20. L5 MIA vs SEA, SEA 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS incl AWAY team 4-1 ATS. MIA 9-10 ATS after BUFF. MIA 32-26 ATS AWAY in SEPT. MIA 31-29-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. MIA 1-7 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. MIA 3-11-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. MIA 12-8-1 ATS w/rest. MIA 3-12 ATS off DD ATS div loss. MIA 0-5 ATS L5 as a DOG 4>pts off DD ATS div loss. SEA 12-4-1 ATS before MNF. SEA 38-26-2 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SEA 35-25 ATS @HOME in SEPT. SEA 4-10 ATS after a non-conf ROAD gm. Right now SEA QB Geno Smith is playing very smart. He is taking what the DEFs give him and not trying to force the ball. He is also not fumbling the ball. He has been sacked 5x in the first two games but has recovered. MIA can be a hot and cold team. They lose some games that make you scratch your head. Thompson will be in there for a few games because no one is rushing Tua to come back too soon. MIA is a hard team to figure out. They beat bad teams and they don’t beat good teams. They need to get over that hump. Where does SEA stand? They beat DEN with a rookie QB and they beat NE which is trying to find themselves after the Belichick era. SEA is a very tough place to play. SEA is coming off an OT game across the country. SEA 5-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. Are they tired? MIA is well rested after playing on TNF. But will Thompson play well having rest and going through the drills? I think this will be a close game because MIA has a lot of weapons. But, they need to get going. SEA wins this game but by a fg so take the points here.
THE PICK: MIA+5
Baltimore Ravens (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS DAL+1
LW, BALT was @HOME vs LV. I liked BALT-8 ½ because after their TNF loss @KC, you had to figure that BALT would come out strong and put a whooping on whoever they were playing next. BALT was up 23-13 and it looked like a good bet but no one told LV who went on a 13-0 run and beat BALT 26-23. All of a sudden BALT stopped playing their football and LV with no ground game was unstoppable in the air and the LV DEF made big plays vs BALT. The BALT secondary could not stop LV QB Gardner Minshew from making plays. LW, DAL @HOME was walloped by NO 44-19. DAL QB Dak Prescott was sacked 3x and had 2INTS which didn’t help DAL. NO scored 5tds on their five first half possessions. The score at halftime was NO 35-16. It was like DAL didn’t have a DEF on the field. DAL was playing catchup from their opening possession but, to no avail. NO RB Alvin Kamara was a one man wrecking crew, rushing for 115yds & 3tds and catching 2passes fr 65yds and 1td. It was a long day for DAL. L5 BALT vs DAL, BALT 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. BALT 22-17-1 ATS L40 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 30-31 ATS AWAY in SEPT. BALT 39-34 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BALT 18-20-1 ATS L39 vs NFC. BALT 5-13 ATS off non-div SU FAV loss. BALT 10-2-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses vs .750< opp. BALT 15-8 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. BALT 9-9 ATS AWAY off SU FAV loss. DAL 12-7-1 ATS L20 as a HOME DOG. DAL 9-12 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DAL 7-4-1 ATS before NYG. DAL 31-15 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. DAL 26-30 ATS @HOME in SEPT. DAL 8-10 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. DAL 18-7-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <8pts. DAL 2-6 ATS @HOME after allowing 35>pts. DAL 9-25-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 0-4 ATS L4 as a DOG after allowing 35>pts. Something’s got to give in this game. BALT has started out 0-2 and is desperate to get back on track and DAL is coming off a humiliating loss @HOME. There are a lot of people that have predicted that DAL will not make the playoffs. This game may foreshadow the future if they can’t seem to win vs good teams. BALT has not started 0-2 in quite a few years and if they have any playoff expectations, need to turn things around quickly. This game could go either way because both teams have a lot of talent. BALT is better vs the run as they stopped LV cold. The BALT DEF will make Prescott do all the work in this one. BALT is in desperation mode and needs this win more than DAL. I have to like BALT in this situation because they are desperate and they will stop the DAL run game and bait Prescott into thinking his receivers are open. Also, look for RB Derrick Henry to get going. If turnovers happen in this game it will be devastating for the team that commits them. This should be a good game but BALT should come out with the win at a td or less.
THE PICK: BALT-1
San Francisco 49ers (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (0-2), (0-2) ATS, (0-0) HOME, (0-0) ATS LAR+4 ½
LW, ARZ @HOME ran all over LAR like they weren’t there. ARZ rushed for 231yds while ARZ QB threw for 3tds, 0INTS & was only sacked 1x. LAR surely does miss DT Aaron Donald. On OFF, LAR couldn’t get their run game going with 53yds rushing and most of LAR QB Matthew Stafford’s passes were non-threatening. ARZ led 14-0 in the 1st qtr and went on to win 41-10. In the past LAR could count on this game as a win but LAR is decimated with injuries and the players in place have not stepped up, especially on DEF. LW @MINN, the O-LINE for SF was the beginning of the end for SF. SF QB Brock Purdy got no protection and was sacked 6x, had 1INT & 1lost fumble. MINN was leading this game 13-7 at the half. With the score 20-7, MINN RB Aaron Jones lost a fumble on his way to the endzone which would have sealed it 27-7. But, SF recovered and was able to drive for a td to make the score MINN 20-14. MINN & SF exchanges fgs and the final score was MINN 23-17. SF RB Jordan Mason rushed for 100 yds & 1td and is playing lights out. The O-LINE for SF was the culprit. It seemed as if Purdy was under pressure on every play. RB Christian McCaffrey is out for another three games but Mason has shown he can handle the load. L17 SF @LAR, SF 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS. L34 SF vs LAR, SF 24-9-1 SU & 20-14 ATS. L10 SF vs LAR, SF 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS. L14 SF vs LAR, DOG 9-5 ATS. L24 SF vs LAR, SF 15-9 ATS. SF 18-13 ATS L31 as a ROAD FAV. SF 14-15 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. SF 30-34 ATS AWAY in SEPT. SF 38-34 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. SF 25-22 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. SF 15-4 ATS off ROAD FAV loss. SF 14-23 ATS as a FAV vs <.500opp. LAR 10-11-1 ATS L22 as a HOME DOG. LAR 8-6 ATS after ARZ. LAR 29-31 ATS @HOME in SEPT. LAR 28-34-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. LAR 16-20 ATS vs NFC WEST in SEPT. LAR 5-2-1 ATS off div ATS loss. LAR 9-24 ATS vs NFC WEST opp off SU FAV loss. It is only the 3rd game and LAR already has an O-LINE that is decimated, two star WRs hurt and a DEF that looks like they can’t stop anyone. This may be a long year for LAR and now they are faced with an SF team that is on a serious bounceback from being upset @MINN. SF has the edge on LAR and these teams split their two meetings in 2023. In the season finale last season, SF kept a lot of their starters out and LAR played like their life depended on it with a last minute win led by QB Carson Wentz who is now with KC. The fact that SF is loaded, on a bounceback & LAR is decimated is a combination that means that SF should win this game easily on paper. But these two teams know each other very well. SF will make adjustments and certainly play better. For LAR, they just don’t have the players. Lay the points here as SF should win and cover easily unless they self destruct again.
THE PICK: SF-4 ½
Detroit Lions (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS ARZ+3
LW, ARZ @HOME whalloped LAR, 41-10. This game was ARZ 24-3 at the half. But LAR is besieged with injuries to their O-LINE & WRs. Plus their DEF can’t stop anyone. With that said, ARZ was all over LAR from the get go. This game was like a tuneup for ARZ. ARZ rushed for 231 yds with RB James Connor rushing for 122yds & 1td. ARZ WR Marvin Harrison had a breakout game with 4catches for 130yds & 2tds. ARZ QB Kyler Murray threw for 3tds & had 0turnovers. It was a complete game for ARZ as the DEF sacked LAR QB Matthew Stafford 5x. LW, DET @HOME took a loss on the chin from TB, 20-16. This game went back and forth and DET was actually leading late in the game when TB QB Baker Mayfield led a drive that culminated with a TB td with :34 seconds left in the game to make the final score TB 20-16. I like TB+7 in this game because I felt that TB was still thinking about the loss in the playoffs last season @DET. In that game TB had squandered some chances to change the outcome of the game and they almost squandered this one. But the points were too high for a team looking for redemption. DET QB threw 56x with 2INTS for 324yds and the RBS rushed for 139yds. Even then DET still had a shot to win but Goff & CO couldn’t get the ball moving in the end. L14 DET vs ARZ, DET 6-7-1 SU & 7-7 ATS, incl HOME TEAM 9-4-1 SU & 11-3 ATS. DET 11-6 ATS L17 as a ROAD FAV. DET 26-33 ATS AWAY in SEPT. DET 40-40 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. DET 5-13-1 ATS L19 AWAY vs NFC WEST. DET 12-5 ATS off DD ATS loss. DET 3-3 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win. DET 9-2 ATS L11 vs non-div opp off SUATS win. ARZ 18-18-1 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 7-12-1 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. ARZ 23-32-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ARZ 45-36-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ARZ 19-8 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 19-8 ATS as a non-div HME DOG <7pts. ARZ 6-17 ATS after allowing 10<pts. ARZ 10-6 ATS after LAR. ARZ 4-7 ATS of DD ATS vs <.700 non-div opp. ARZ 2-12 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 2-7 ATS @HOME vs opp off non-div SU FAV loss. ARZ 8-0 ATS L8 as a non-div conf HOME DOG >2pts. ARZ 1-11 ATS L12 vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. DET is packed on OFF. But their secondary is a little shaky and worries me. DET beat LAR, so what, and lost to TB. Which team are they? ARZ beat up LAR and lost @BUFF. Which team are they? We have seen ARZ make some strides under QB Kyler Murray then the bottom falls out. Either he or someone gets injured or they lose a game that looks like they took 2steps backwards. Is this a statement game for ARZ? DET & ARZ haven’t played each other in a few years so there isn’t any revenge factor playing here. Has QB Kyler Murray turned the corner? With DET on the bounceback and ARZ coming off a BIG blowout win, the combination is such that DET should look to get back on track because right now they are trailing MINN in the NFC NORTH. The gut tells me DET is looking for a win and HC Dan Campbell has them moving forward. The O-LINE for DET has to get to Murray. They cannot let him get out of the pocket and run or throw. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: DET-3
Sunday September 22nd, 2024 8:20pm
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0), (1-1) ATS, (0-0) AWAY, (0-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS ATL+3 ½
LW, KC pulled a rabbit out of the hat. For al of you KC haters, it was pass interference because the defender was clearly early hitting the receiver. It happens but when you give KC QB Pat Mahomes extra chances you will certainly get burned. In past games between KC & CINNCY, the game shave been 3pts or less. I should have stuck with that and said KC would win but not by the spread. I felt KC would win by a td but it was a harder fought game. Anyway, KC got their last second fg to win 26-25. TE Travis Kelce was non existent in that game but, don’t look for that trend to continue. He’s money to Mahomes and things will get better. The KC DEF looks a little penetrable without CB L’Jarius Sneed back there and they need to adjust. On MNF, ATL needed that game. I said so in my analysis. They could not afford to have another dud of a game. The ATL DEF gave up only 2tds to an explosive PHILLY OFF. ATL QB Kirk Cousins showed what he was made of in leading a td drive with 1:39 left in the 4th qtr and winning the game 22-21. PHILLY RB Saquon Barkley did drop a 1st down pass that would have ended the game 21-15. But, it is all part of the game. Cousins played a very well managed game. He spread the ball around to six receivers, threw for 2tds, 0INTS & 0lost fumbles. The ATL run game combined for 152yds which took a lot of pressure off of Cousins as well. It was a very good win for ATL. L5 KC vs ATL, KC 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS. KC 10-12 ATS AWAY on SNF. KC 16-14 ATS as a FAV on SNF. KC 9-12 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. KC 40-24 ATS AWAY in SEPT. KC 38-32 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. KC 12-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 12-5 ATS before LAC. KC 19-8-1 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. KC 27-25-1 ATS L53 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 9-3 ATS after MNF. ATL 7-9-1 ATS before NO. ATL 9-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. ATL 12-9 ATS L21 as a HOME DOG. ATL 31-26 ATS @HOME in SEPT. ATL 38-34 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. ATL 8-7 ATS as a DOG on SNF. ATL 12-10 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 11-6 ATS as a DOG off SU DOG win. ATL 11-7 ATS as a DOG 1>pt off SU DOG win. ATL 6-12 ATS @HOME vs >.333 non-conf opp. ATL 11-2 ATS off non-div gm vs .750>opp. KC RB Isiah Pacheco hurt his fibula and is out maybe even for the season. KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also out so Samaje Perine will get the start. He is mostly a pass catching RB so the ATL DEF will be waiting. If KC brings someone in, they won’t be ready. Can Mahomes do it without a RB? ATL is pumped after their win @PHILLY so they may be giving their all for this game as well. I don’t see any letdown for ATL & Kirk Cousins. Cousins is motivated by the fact that Micahel Penix is ready, willing & able to take the reins @QB if Cousins falters. The ATL DEF is something to watch and I like ATL @HOME getting points in this one. KC has been shaky. This will be a good game but KC will find a way to win but it will be very close. KC just signed RB Kareem Hunt to the practice squad but we will see what kind of game shape he is in. I still like ATL @HOME with the points. They will have the HOME crowd behind them and it will probably come down to a fg at the end. Take ATL & the points.
THE PICK: ATL+3 ½
Monday September 23rd, 2024 7:30pm
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2), (0-1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-0-1) ATS @Buffalo Bills (2-0), (2-0) ATS, (1-0) HOME, (1-0) ATS JAGS+5 ½
LW, JAGS didn’t look good @HOME vs CLEV. I was looking for them to bounceback against a CLEV team that didn’t look good either the previous week. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence did not look good. He was sacked 4x and was sacked for a safety that put JAGS in a position that they needed a td at the end of the game instead of just a fg. It was 18-13 instead of 16-13. Fore the most part the JAGS DEF held CLEV to 1td but the OFF for JAGS were their own worst enemy. A missed fg by JAGS in the 3rd qtr played sharply how the rest of the game would play out. In the end, sloppiness is what beat the JAGS. Hopefully they get it together this week. BUFF did everything right @MIA on TNF. BUFF QB Josh Allen didn’t even need to run the ball because the BUFF DEF created 3INTS and turned them into 17pts. Also, unfortunately MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion and left the game. The game was BUFF 31-10 in the 3rd qtr and you could turn your sets off their. BUFF RB James COOk took a lot of pressure off of Allen by rushing for 78 yds and 2tds. The BUFF DEF was superb and didn’t give up any BIG plays. L13 BUFF vs JAGS, JAGS 7-6 SU & 7-6 ATS. JAGS 10-15 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. JAGS 32-31-1 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. JAGS 23-24-1 ATS AWAY in SEPT. JAGS 10-11 ATS before HOU. JAGS 3-12 ATS as a DOG 8<pts vs .700> opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 3-11 ATS vs pp off SU DOG win. JAGS 8-2 ATS L10 off SUATS loss vs opp off DD SU win. JAGS 2-11 as a ROAD DOG <15pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. JAGS 1-9 ATS L10 vs opp w/rest. BUFF 9-7 ATS on MNF. BUFF 6-5 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. BUFF BUFF 6-12 ATS after MIA. BUFF 37-25-1 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. BUFF 40-25-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. BUFF 7-4 ATS off BB SUATS wins. BUFF 10-3-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs <.500 opp BUFF 2-8 ATS off SU DOG win vs opp off SU loss. BUFF 8-14 ATS @HOME off DD ATS win. BUFF 8-1 ATS L9 w/revenge vs <.500 non-div opp. BUFF has had plenty of time to rest after TNF. However, this is a must do something or win game for the JAGS. BUFF 6-28-1 ATS after beating MIA SU. History says BUFF doesn’t win after beating MIA. JAGs can ill afford to go 0-3. They will have a steep hill to climb if they lose this one because HOU is looking like they want to run away with the AFC SOUTH. IF HOU beats MINN, they will be 3-0, if they don’t they will be 2-1 but JAGS have to do their part to get back into it. They have the talent, now they have to step up. BUFF has had one runaway game and one close game. I think this game goes close because JAGS are in desperation mode and can’t dig a bigger hole. These two teams played last season in London with JAGS beating BUFF 25-20. is there any revenge on the minds of BUFF? JAGS have other things to worry about and they have to play better. I like JAGS with points here as they HAVE TO play better overall and may even get the upset.
THE PICK: JAGS+5 ½
Monday September 23rd, 2024 8:15pm
Washington Commanders (1-1), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2), (1-1) ATS, (0-1) HOME, (0-1) ATS WASH+7 ½
LW, WASH @HOME beat NYG 21-18 when they really shouldn’t have. NYG HC Brain Daboll gave the game to WASH even before the kickoff. The DEF for NYG held WASH to 7fgs & 0tds which is very good but WASH QB Jayden Daniels had a very nice day and the running game helped him out with 171 yards. This took a lot of pressure off of Daniels. However, he was sacked 5x. CINNCY take note. The WASH secondary also gave up 2tds to QB Daniel Jones, incredible. LW, CINNCY was @KC. I should have had CINNCY+6 ½ because the games between KC & CINNCY are always 3pts or less. But early in the season, CINNCY is off track. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow made a big mistake with the fumble that returned for a td but they still had a shot to beat KC. With 4th & 16, it looked like KC had an incomplete pass but there was pass interference and it gave new life to KC who took advantage of it. They then set up 2 plays later for the winning fg and won 26-25. Burrows will be on point this week. The run game has to get going for CINNCY to take pressure off of Burrow, otherwise teams will tee up. CINNCY can ill afford to have Burrow go down on an injury again. L5 CINNCY vs WASH, CINNCY 3-1-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. WASH 9-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. WASH 5-11 ATS L16 on MNF. WASH 9-17-1 aTS after NYG. WASH 15-9 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 15-6 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1st of BB RGs. WASH 36-23 ATS AWAY in SEPT. WASH 38-33 ATS as a DOG in SEPT. CINNCY 4-3 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. CINNCY 20-32-1 ATS @HOME in SEPT. CINNCY 17-30 ATS as a FAV in SEPT. CINNCY 21-20-1 ATS after an SU loss & coming HOME. CINNCY 10-7-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV. Yes, CINNCY is 1-9 SU the last five seasons for weeks 1&2. But they seem to get it rolling right after that. Also, as we know it, CINNCY is in desperation mode as they know they cannot dig themselves a deeper hole than they are already in. For WASH, it is one thing to beat NYG but CINNCY is another animal. WASH was the benefactor of stupidity by NYG HC Brain Daboll which gave the advantage to WASH even before the kickoff. Daboll knew his K was hurting but did nothing and ended up with NYG having no place kicker. The game would have been won by NYG and WASH would be 0-2 instead of 1-1. Their confidence right now is overblown because of who they beat and how. CINNCY mad some mistakes last week and certainly will not make them again this week. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow is a student of the game and works to improve his game every week. CINNCY @HOME is a on a major bounceback here and will crush WASH. The O-LINE for WASH is not good and the D-LINE for CINNCY should create some havoc and possibly force a turnover. Lay the points here as WASH comes back down to EARTH.
THE PICK: CINNCY-7 ½