2023 NFL SCHEDULE DIVISIONAL WKND (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Tim

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Saturday January 20^th, 2024 4:30pm

(4) Houston Texans @ (1) Baltimore Ravens                   HOU+9 ½

LW, HOU @HOME shocked the world vs CLEV. CLEV had the #1TOT DEF in the NFL but HOU QB CJ Stroud passed the ball in this game like they were the #32 TOT DEF. He passed for 3tds, 0INTs and wasn’t even sacked by CLEV. CLEV QB Joe Flacco looked like a bad rookie throwing 2PICK6s, being sacked 4x and playing catchup for most of the game. HOU threw in some rushes to keep CLEV off their game. HOU won 45-14. BALT should be plenty rested and ready for this game. I think newly signed RB Dalvin Cook should be eager to show everyone why BALT picked him up. But HOU QB CJ Stroud is no slouch and the HOU DEF can creep up on you if you don’t take them seriously, just ask Joe Flacco. BALT took care of two playoff opponents down the stretch and made mince meat of both of them. In wk 16 @SF, BALT outplayed SF on both sides of the ball and won 33-19. The final score was actually closer than the game. Then the following week, BALT beat MIA 56-19 in some serious payback. It should be noted that in the wk 18 loss to PITT, BALT had 0starters on OFF and a lot of backups on DEF. PITT was lucky to win the game and needed that game to get into the playoffs. PITT won 17-10. BALT #6 TOT OFF w/#1 RUSH OFF & #21 PASS OFF. BALT #5 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. No one expected HOU to get by CLEV so right now they are playing with the house’s money. BALT is expected to win this game and there is pressure on BALT QB Lamar Jackson & CO to go deep into the playoffs and even the SuperBowl. HOU should be very loose for this game. HOU has stars on this team that will be around for a long time on OFF & DEF. HOU DEs Will Anderson & Jonathan Greenard combined for 17.5 sacks this season and are ready for the challenge of the BALT O-LINE. BALT has loads of talent on OFF & DEF but so does HOU. Turnovers will be huge in this game. BALT will win this game but by less than 10pts. They will be surprised by how HOU brings out some trick plays but in the end BALT will advance. Stroud will not make many mistakes as he has shown to weather any storm. Stroud had 5INTS in 15games this season and did not throw one in the playoff win vs CLEV. BALT will bring the house but Stroud will prevail. I like HOU with the points but BALT will win.   

THE PICK: HOU+9 ½  

Saturday January 20^th, 2024 8:15pm

(7) Green Bay Packers @ (1) San Francisco 49ers          GB+10

LW, GB blew out DAL, @DAL 48-32. This game was GB 48-16 in the 4^th qtr and DAL got 2dummy tds to make the final score look close. But this game was GB 27-7 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. DAL QB Dak Prescott threw an INT early that was quickly turned into a td by GB and then a PICK6 which made the score GB 27-0. GB dominated DAL on both sides of the ball and the DAL DEF was nowhere to be found. GB QB Jordan Love was unstoppable and looked as cool as a cucumber throwing 16/21 for 272yds, 3tds & 0INTs. GB rushed for 143yds including RB Aaron Jones who rushed for 21x for 118yds & 3tds. Don’t look at the last game of the season for SF. Most of their starters on OFF were out and most of the guys on DEF were not making tackles and playing not to lose. The game to look at is vs BALT. Even though I liked BALT in that game, there are weaknesses that SF has on DEF. The middle of the field has been hard to cover and BALT took advantage of it. SF #7 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #13 PASS DEF. This is where they have had problems in the past against teams. SF needs to shore up that middle and not let GB get their run game going. No one expected GB to get past DAL but here they are. They have nothing to lose and should be loose. Does GB put up the numbers this week that they did last week @DAL? SF is better vs the run than DAL but SF has slipped a little this season. GB cannot turn the ball over, period. Any extra possessions by SF on OFF will result in a blowout by SF. I like SF to win this game but GB QB Jordan Love has shown some great maturity this season and may make this game interesting. The key for GB is getting their run game going. If they can do that, this will be a game. If they cannot establish the run, the game will be over early in SF’s favor. SF has weapons on OFF that go on and on. GB will give it its best shot but, I like SF to win the game but to do it less than the spread suggests.

THE PICK: GB+10

Sunday January 21^st, 2024 3:00pm

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (3) Detroit Lions             TB+6 ½

LW, TB played a very nice game vs PHILLY. PHILLY has all the parts but the parts have not been working since the middle of the season. TB put PHILLY’s woes on display and took advantage of it all. PHILLY didn’t tackle, didn’t rush well & overall, didn’t play defense well. The PHILLY DEF did sack TB QB Baker Mayfield 4x but Mayfield could have avoided at least two of them if he had stepped up a little earlier in the pocket. PHILLY missed tackles all over the field and TB won the game 32-9. LW, DET got a little lucky by stopping LAR in the redzone 3x and having them kick 3fgs instead of scoring 3tds. This was the difference in the game as I felt that it would be a close game and that LAR would prevail. It is a win for DET but it came down to the end of the game. Neither LAR or DET could rely on their run game as both were stopped from really going BIG. LAR rushed for 68yds while DET rushed for 79yds. DET led throughout the game with LAR playing catchup. These two teams met in wk 6 @TB with TB winning 20-6. In that game, DET was held to 40yds rushing but that was without Jahmyr Gibbs in the lineup for DET. TB was held to 46yds rushing and TB QB Baker Mayfield did not have a good day with his only INT being turned into a fg by DET. DET QB Jared Goff managed to spread the ball around to 10different receivers which kept the TB DEF on its toes. But in the win vs LAR, Goff only spread the ball around to 6different receivers. TB #4 RUSH DEF. There are quirks in Mayfield’s game that prevent him from being great. One thing that TB does on OFF is BIG plays. They did that a lot vs PHILLY. DET #30 PASS DEF. TB certainly has receivers that can get open and catch the ball, as Mayfield spread the ball around to 9different receivers. He’s going to have to do that again this week vs DET if they have any chance of winning. There may be some payback on the minds of TB as they were embarrassed earlier in the season by DET. But if TB has any chance of keeping this close and winning, the DEF has to step up. Also, TB likes to blitz. Will Goff pick up on that and get the ball out of his hands quickly? Or will he get swarmed and fumble the ball? I like DET to win this game but in a closer game then the spread suggests. I like TB with the points here.

THE PICK: TB+6 ½

Sunday January 21^st, 2024 6:30pm

(3) Kansas City Chiefs @ (2) Buffalo Bills                      KC+2 ½  

LW, KC @HOME did what they needed to do in very cold weather vs MIA. MIA has only beaten one really good team in all of 2023. KC has had their problems this season but their DEF has been top notch. KC #2 TOT DEF w/#18 RUSH DEF & #4 PASS DEF. KC limited MIA to 1td, 76yds rushing and 199yds passing by MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa. MIA WR Tyreek Hill had the lone td in the 2^nd qtr. The score was KC 10-7 and that would be the closest MIA would get in a 26-7 loss. KC sacked Tua 2x while Pat Mahomes was not sacked at all. In the freezing cold Mahomes spread the ball around to nine different receivers and kept the MIA DEF guessing. LW, BUFF @HOME vs PITT, BUFF QB Josh Allen was the star of this game. He rushed 8x for 74yds & 1td while passing 21/30 for 203yds, 3tds & 0INTs. But the BIG decisive play was Allen’s 52yd run for a td in the 2^nd qtr that made the score BUFF 21-0. It seemed to bury PITT and no one on the PITT DEF was able to catch up or tackle Allen. PITT played catchup from there and PITT 3^rd string QB Mason Rudolph gave it his best shot in a 31-17 loss. Two turnovers in the 1^st half by PITT that were turned into tds by BUFF had PITT in a hole they couldn’t get out of. This is the matchup that everyone wants and Josh Allen & BUFF have been waiting for. In the regular season BUFF QB Josh Allen & KC Pat Mahomes have met 4x with BUFF going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. In the playoffs, they have met 2x with KC going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS. KC & BUFF met in wk 14 this season @KC with BUFF winning that game, 20-17. That was the game that temporary looked like a 24-20 win for KC, with a well played lateral pass from TE Travis Kelce to WR Kadarious Toney who then walked into the endzone. But Toney was offsides and the td was nullified. KC could not recover and BUFF won 20-17. BUFF has had a lot of injuries down the stretch on DEF but it has been next man up. They have turned their season around after being 6-6 and looking like their season was lost. KC has lost games this season that in past seasons they would have normally won. This is the 1^st playoff game for Mahomes on the road and it couldn’t be in a worse place than BUFF. The BUFF faithful have been waiting for this and they will be pumped. BUFF #5 TOT OFF w/#5 RUSH OFF & #10 PASS OFF. With Allen leading the charge, BUFF will be hard to stop. The DEF is no slouch either for BUFF. BUFF #9 TOT DEF w/#15 RUSH DEF & #7 PASS DEF. This will be a hard fought game with the lead going back and forth but I like BUFF to pull away in the 4^th qtr. BUFF should win this game by at least a td. Take BUFF and lay the points here.    

THE PICK: BUFF-2 ½