2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 10 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYE: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

Thursday November 9^th, 2023 8:15pm

Carolina Panthers (1-7), (1-6-1) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (0-4) ATS @ Chicago Bears (2-7), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS                              CAR+4

LW, CHI blew a game that they should have won. They were up 14-7 @NO and had all the momentum but CHI QB Tyson Bangent had 3INTS & 1 lost fumble that contributed to a defeat, 24-17. CHI WR DJ Moore also had a lost fumble and all in all CHI could have lost worse with all the turnovers. I liked CHI+7 ½ because I felt things would be corrected after the loss @LAC. The only thing that stopped this game from being a NO blowout was the CHI DEF. Last week, CAR ran into an INDY DEF that needed to make a statement. CAR QB Bryce Young threw 3INTS including 2PICK6s in a 27-13 loss. Take away those picks and CAR may have won the game because the CAR DEF only gave up only 1 OFF td. L8 CAR vs CHI, CHI 6-2 SU & 4-3-1 ATS. CAR 3-7 ATS L10 on TNF. 30-28-3 ATS AWAY in NOV. CAR 29-33-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 13-16 ATS off SUATS loss vs non-div opp. CAR 16-2 ATS as a DOG vs .333< opp. CAR 13-1 ATS as a non-div DOG vs .333< opp. CHI 7-11 ATS L18 on TNF. CHI 4-9 ATS on TNF vs opp off SU loss. CHI 2-4 ATS L6 @HOME on TNF. CHI 28-19-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CHI 32-28-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. CHI 20-9 ATS before DET. CHI 6-19 ATS as a conf HOME FAV vs opp off SU loss. Both of these teams are coming off a loss. Turnovers contributed heavily to both teams losing so, both teams will be making changes and adjustments. Bangent personally turned the ball over 4x which contributed to 7pts by NO but, CHI could have scored more points and won this game. CAR QB Bryce Young had 2PICK6s and needs to read the DEF better. But, believe it or not, he is facing a better DEF than he faced last week. CHI #19 TOT DEF w/#4 RUSH DEF. CHI needs to see if Bangent is the future or if they go back to Justin Fields when he comes off injury. This game is going to be put on Young’s shoulders because the run game for CAR will be stopped. He will get into trouble and have some turnovers. I like CHI winning by 6pts in this game because they need to run the ball successfully and often. CHI #4 RUSH OFF vs CAR #28 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. CHI can’t have turnovers, otherwise they will lose.

THE PICK: CHI-4

Sunday November 12^th, 2023 9:30am

Indianapolis Colts (4-5), (5-4) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (2-7), (2-7) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-4) ATS (Frankfurt, Germany)  NE+1 ½

LW, INDY CB Kenny Moore had 2PICK6s that held CAR down and won the game for INDY 27-13. But between the lines the INDY OFF managed only 1OFF td. INDY QB Gardner Minshew is a less than average QB and he is out there playing the string for INDY. INDY had the luxury of playing a rookie QB who is still learning the league. INDY couldn’t manage to get 100 yds rushing against CAR and punted 5x. Before this game, Minshew had 5INTs & 4fumbles in the INDY’s 3game losing streak. LW, NE should have won the game. They were driving and NE WR JuJu Smith- Schuster had a pass go right through his hands and into a WASH defender, game over. NE was putting together a nice drive and were only down 20-17. But because of the turnover, that’s where the game ended. But on some positive notes, the NE OFF opened up a little and NE QB Mac Jones was spreading the ball around nicely. He had a decent game and the INT should not be on him. Other than that, he did not turn the ball over. L14 INDY vs NE, INDY 5-9 SU but 7-6-1 ATS. INDY 10-11 ATS L21 as a ROAD DOG. INDY 10-5-1 ATS since 2007 before their bye. INDY 13-8 ATS in 2^nd f BB RGs. INDY 34-34-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 41-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 1-8 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. INDY 14-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV vs <.500 opp. INDY 9-9-1 ATS off DD SU win vs conf opp. INDY 22-16 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 7-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 10-1 ATS AWAY vs non-div opp off BB SU losses. INDY 1-8 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SUATS loss. NE 10-6 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NE 14-6-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. NE 6-7 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. NE 32-27-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 30-18 ATS as a DOG in NOV. Minshew will make mistakes this week that will cost INDY a win. NE is desperate for a win. Had WR JuJu Smith-Schuster held on to the ball, NE probably would have pulled out this game. INDY #26 TOT DEF w/#23 PASS DEF & #24 RUSH DEF. QB Mac Jones should have a field day with this DEF that finds itself out of place after big plays. They can’t make a stop to save themselves and they will be on the field a lot after Minshew turns the ball over a few times. NE is desperate for a win and this has a BIG blowout written all over it no matter what the spread says. The NE DEF is tougher than people give it credit for NE #16 TOT DEF w/ #21 PASS DEF & #11 RUSH DEF. NE will make some plays on DEF in this game and they will have a nice win technically @HOME. The crowd will have a lot of Brady jerseys but he isn’t showing up, LOL. Take NE here. 

THE PICK: NE+1 ½

Sunday November 12^th, 2023 1:00pm

Houston Texans (4-4), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                              HOU+7

LW, HOU QB CJ Stroud showed some very good leadership skills. He went the length of the field in :46 and threw a td pass to beat TB 39-37. The team was very aggressive. I liked HOU -2 ½ and it would have been nice if they tried for the 2pt conversion but, they did not. The HOU kicker was injured and they needed a RB to make fgs and kick kickoffs. Anyway, Stroud had a great game and he threw for 470 yds, 5tds & 0INTS. He spread the ball around nicely to 7different receivers. On SNF, CINNCY took care of business vs BUFF. As I stated BUFF is overrated and they have definitely have taken a step back. But, they are still a tough team but the CINNCY DEF stopped BUFF from doing any real damage. CINNCY was up 24-10 when BUFF scored a dummy td and 2pt conversion to make the final score, CINNCY 24-18. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was sacked 1x and spread the ball around to 8different receivers. L9 HOU vs CINNCY, HOU 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS, incl HOU @ CINNCY, HOU 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. HOU 23-16-4 ATS AWAY in NOV. HOU 26-22-3 ATS as a DOG in NOV. HOU 10-2 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU win. HOU 11-7-1 ATS after allowing 35>pts. HOU 5-3-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC NORTH. CINNCY 12-7-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 25-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CINNCY 36-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 8-7-1 ATS off BB SU wins. Burrow is in the zone. The DEF for CINNCY played smart and didn’t let up vs BUFF. The CINNCY DEF has some deficiencies but they know where and when to make their stops. HOU is getting better every week and Stroud gives the team confidence that they can take on anyone. Both teams have a DEF that is in the lower 3^rd of the NFL but HOU has a better RUSH DEF. HOU #10 RUSH DEF. This means that Burrow will have to throw more but he is comfortable with that. I like CINNCY winning the game but in a game that is closer than the spread, say 3pts. I think HOU gives CINNCY everything they have because no one is expecting HOU to be competitive in this one and CINNCY sort of takes them for granted. If CINNCY gets sloppy, don’t be surprised if HOU gets an upset here. But if HOU gets turnoveritous, then it could be rout by CINNCY. But I think it will be close. Take HOU and the points. Right now CINNCY WR Ja’Marr Chase is questionable with a back injury and if he is not in this game, that will be a big loss for CINNCY on OFF.

THE PICK: HOU+7

New Orleans Saints (5-4), (3-5-1) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (3-1-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (5-4), (6-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS            MINN+2 ½

LW, with ATL WR Drake London not playing vs MINN, I changed my pick to MINN. With MINN QB Jaren Hall starting, I thought that MINN would be in a dog fight @ATL and it would be a close loss for MINN. But with QB Joshua Dobbs coming in, somehow MINN got new light and was reborn. It was still a dogfight but with Dobbs in there and his never-say-die attitude MINN came back to win this game with :22 left in the game. However, MINN RB Cam Akers tore his Achilles and is out for the season. LW, NO @HOME was given many gifts and still only managed to beat CHI by 7pts. CHI QB Tyson Bangent threw 3INTS and had a lost fumble which gave NO a good chance to win. Add on a fumble by CHI WR DJ Moore and that’s 5turnovers. NO didn’t get their run game going too well and needed NO QB/WR/RB Taysom Hill to play all three positions. I liked CHI+7 ½ and I felt strongly that CHI would keep it close, they did. Without all those gifts, CHI wins this game. L10 MINN vs MINN, NO 5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS. NO 11-5 ATS since 2007 before their bye. NO 18-14-1 ATS L33 as a ROAD FAV. NO 41-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. NO 39-32-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 17-8 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NO 11-2 ATS AWAY vs NFC NORTH NO 7-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV vs NFC NORTH. MINN 8-5 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. MINN 37-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. MINN 35-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 1-9 ATS @HOME L10 off BB SU wins. LW, CHI vs NO I like CHI because they were very good vs the run and I knew that it would be left to NO QB Derek Carr to win this game in the air. He didn’t turn the ball over and NO escaped with the win. MINN is decent vs the run. MINN #12 RUSH DEF, so again it will be left up to Carr/Hill to save the day. Dobbs will be the starter for MINN and he gets the team going with his positive attitude. Dobbs knows he is playing for a team that can get to the playoffs, so he is playing smarter than in ARZ. That team had no shot so he took chances. Dobbs spreads the ball around nicely and has much more targets on MINN. If MINN can get a run game going they will have the NO DEF on their heels. The fans in MINN will be pumped and Carr will be nervous. These two teams met last season in London with MINN kicking a fg at the end to win 28-25. No revnege here as 2 different QBs will be starting for both teams. I like MINN here @HOME.  

THE PICK: MINN+2 ½

Green Bay Packers (3-5), (2-6) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-2) HOME, (3-2) ATS                            GB+3

On TNF, PITT got very lucky at the end of the game. On a last ditch effort, TENN QB Will Levis threw a pass that was intercepted at the goal line by PITT to end the game for PITT 20-16. In this game, PITT was bale to find a ground game and rushed for 166yds & 1td on 30 carries. This takes a lot of pressure off of QB Kenny Pickett who had a so-so game but with 0turnovers. TENN was leading 13-10 at the half but only managed 3pts in the 2^nd half. Last week, GB beat a LAR team without their starting QB, 20-3. The OFF for LAR was stopped on the ground and in the air and GB took advantage of it. GB turned a fumble & and INT into 10pts. GB also rushed for 184 yds & 1td on 38 carries. GB QB Jordan Love had a good but was sacked 4x. L5 GB vs PITT, GB 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS. GB 24-29-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. GB 30-40-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. GB 21-26-2 ATS L49 vs AFC. GB 13-3 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. GB 5-11-1 ATS off DD SU non-div win. GB 17-2-1 ATS vs opp w/rest off SU win. GB 8-1 ATS L9 as a non div DOG. PITT34-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 51-32 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 9-9 ATS before CLEV. PITT 2-9 ATS as a FAV w/rest. PITT has been trying to find a run game that would take pressure off of Pickett and let him concentrate on dropping passes. This week, PITT may get their 2^nd chance as GB #23 RUSH DEF will not stop the ground game that PITT tries to establish. The jury is still out on GB QB Jordan Love and he has to show that he can win games consistently. Last week, LAR had a backup QB that was lost and the LAR DEF is not that good. GB rushed for a lot of yards vs LAR and this week, they may get their chance again, PITT #29 RUSH DEF. This game will be run heavy on both sides but somehow PITT will come out with a win. I see it being close unless PITT comes out like gangbusters and Love has a terrible day. Lay the points here but I see a 3pt gm at best.

THE PICK: PITT-3

Tennessee Titans (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5), (5-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS          TENN+1

On TNF, TENN was up 13-10 at halftime. They should have won the game but lost 20-16. They needed to make some changes at halftime so that they were not predictable coming out in the 2^nd half. I like TENN+3 in this game but the OFF went stagnant and they scored a lousy 3pts in the 2^nd half and needed a hail mary to win which was intercepted at the goal line for a loss. The DEF played well for TENN and they need to do it again. Last week, TB showed everyone that their secondary is suspect at best. They gave up 470yds, 5tds & 0INTS to a rookie QB who drove the length of the field in 46 seconds to win the game. TB did stop HOU’s run game but, in the air, they were atrocious. TB lost 39-37. TB QB Baker Mayfield had a good game with 0turnovers but HOU QB CJ Stroud was the star here. L4 TENN vs TB, TENN 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS. TENN 12-9-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. TENN 38-34 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 33-31 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 15-8 ATS vs NFC SOUTH. TENN 10-1 ATS vs .500 NFC SOUTH opp. TENN 9-1 ATS AWAY off SU loss vs <.750 non-conf opp. TENN 3-7 ATS before JAGS. TENN 6-2 ATS after TNF. TB 34-28-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. TB 28-26-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. TB 1-15 ATS as a FAV off BB SU Losses. TB 6-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs <.500 non-div opp. TB 1-7 ATS as a HOME FAV 3<pts. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast but, TENN is better on paper and TB QB Baker Mayfield is a wild card because of his gunslinger mentality. He always tries to make something out of nothing and that’s where he gets into trouble. TENN needs more quality players in key positions. A player here and a player there and then they could go on a deep playoff run. But, for some reason, they don’t do it. TENN should have won last week and that’s why I picked them. They should be pissed and thinking that this is their game this week. TB is beatable because their run game is so bad and Mayfield has to pass the ball so much. TB #30 RUSH OFF vs TENN #19 RUSH DEF. But TB has a pretty good RUN DEF and they are probably putting their game plan on stopping RB Derrick Henry. TB #9 RUSH DEF. However, TENN needs to let Will Levis audible plays so that TENN doesn’t get stuck and has other options when TB stops the run. I like TENN here

THE PICK: TENN+1

San Francisco 49ers (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                JAGS+3

SF is coming off a bye and have a three game losing streak. They looked lost @HOME vs CINNCY and lost 31-17. They have scored exactly 17 pts in each of the last three games. SF QB Brock Purdy has thrown 5INTS in those 3 losses and had 2fumbles. The OFF has look stagnated and can’t rely on WR Deebo Samuel to save the day all the time. Yes, he has been out since being injured @CLEV but he will be rusty this week if he plays. JAGS are also coming off a bye and are on a 5game winning streak where they won @PITT before their bye, 20-10. JAGS dominated that game and stopped PITT from getting a decent running game going. They knocked PITT QB Kenny Pickett out and Trubisky came in and threw 2INTS. JAGS DEF shut down PITT. I liked JAGS here because no matter what the JAGS record in the past, they always seemed to play PITT tough and surprise them with a victory. L5 SF vs JAGS, SF 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. SF 13-13 ATS L26 as a ROAD FAV. SF 31-26-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. SF 35-40 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SF 8-16 ATS w/rest. JAGS 21-21 ATS L42 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 9-16 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. JAGS 27-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. JAGS 40-31-1 ATS as a DOG n NOV. JAGS 10-6 ATS before TENN. JAGS 9-2 ATS w/rest vs <.600 opp. JAGS 12-6-1 ATS w/rest. Both of these teams are coming off a bye and have had plenty of time to dissect the other team. SF is on a three game losing streak but JAGS are loose and enjoying the ride. Lawrence looks like he doesn’t get nervous and is cool under pressure. Purdy has looked human lately with all those INTs when he has been under pressure. The JAGS DEF is no slouch as JAGS #3 RUSH DEF but need to shore up their PASS DEF to stop SF. SF WR Deebo Samuel is still questionable for this game and with him in the lineup, there is more that the JAGS need to cover to win this game. But JAGS have been here before and can keep this game close if they don’t turn the ball over. Everyone is thinking SF will have monster bounceback game but JAGS are a decent team and don’t lose often like in the past. Lawrenc is making better decisions and the SF secondary can be beat. It also doesn’t hurt that JAGS have a healthy RB Travis Etienne rushing and taking a lot of pressure off of Lawrence. The JAGS secondary has 11 INTS so they do get a handle on the ball. I like the JAGS here.     

THE PICK: JAGS+3

Cleveland Browns (5-3), (4-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (7-2), (6-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                               CLEV+6

Last week, CLEV @HOME blew out ARZ 27-0. CLEV could have scored 40pts but took it easy. ARZ was playing with a backup rookie QB who was inserted after Joshua Dobbs was traded to MINN. The ARZ QB had 2INTS & 1lost fumble which CLEV turned into 2tds. LW, BALT destroyed SEA 37-3. SEA acted like their DEF wasn’t even on the field. BALT rushed for 298yds & 3tds on 41 carries. Add on another 217yds passing and you have 515yds of total OFF for BALT. SEA’s game plan was scratched early when they found themselves down 17-3 in the 2^nd qtr. L16 CLEV @ BALT, CLEV 3-13 SU but 8-8 ATS. L28 CLEV vs BALT, ROAD 18-10 ATS. L31 CLEV vs BALT, BALT 25-6 SU & 20-11 ATS. CLEV 32-25 ATS AWAY in NOV. CLEV 23-36 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 15-22 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. CLEV 6-22 ATS off DD SU win. CLEV 4-1 ATS L5 w/div revenge off SU win. CLEV 4-19 ATS off SUATS win vs >.500 opp. CLEV 1-10 ATS in 1^st of BB div gms. CLEV 0-8 ATS L8 off DD SU win. BALT 10-8 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. BALT 35-29-4 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 42-32-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 31-25-1 ATS vs AFC NORTH in NOV. BALT 5-3 ATS L8 as a DIV FAV 6<pts. BALT 7-15-2 ATS after allowing 10<pts. BALT 5-18 ATS as a DIV HOME FAV 4>pts. BALT 14-30-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 2-15 ATS off DD non div win vs opp off DD SU win. Both of these teams are coming off blowout wins. But, BALT beat a better team than did CLEV. Both CLEV & BALT have top DEFs. CLEV #1 TOT DEF w/#6 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF---BALT #2 TOT DEF w/#8 RUSH DEF & #2 PASS DEF. After BALT blows out a team, there is a little letdown the following week. CLEV has some revenge in mind as these two teams met @CLEV in wk 4 with BALT winning BIG 28-3. In that game, Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the QB for CLEV as Deshaun Watson was injured. Robinson threw for 3INTS. Two of which BALT turned into 2tds. The DEF for CLEV is nothing to take for granted and this will be a very close game with it going down to the wire. I don’t see a blowout by either team. I see this game being decided by a fg. Both teams have OFFs that can go but CLEV has not had Watson for all the games. He certainly would love to beat BALT. This will be a tight game all the way through. Take CLEV and the points.

THE PICK: CLEV+6

Sunday November 12^th, 2023 4:00pm

Atlanta Falcons (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-8), (4-5) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (3-1 ) ATS                           ARZ+1

LW, after I heard that ATL WR Drake London was scratched from the game vs MINN, I changed my pick to MINN. ATL put up a nice fight but I felt confident that MINN would keep it close and might even win. MINN QB Jaren Hall was knocked out early with a concussion but, never say die, QB Joshua Dobbins came in and led a big surge for MINN that claimed an upset at ATL, 31-28. This game went back and forth but the ATL DEF couldn’t make stops. Taylor Heinicke had a decent game in his 1^st start as ATL QB. LW, ARZ was manhandled @CLEV, 27-0. I said it would be a romp and it was. CLEV toyed with ARZ and ARZ QB Clayton Tune was in over his head as he threw 2INTS & had 1 lost fumb. On top of that, Tune was sacked 7x. Without Dobbs, ARZ had a measly 41yds rushing. L11 ATL vs ARZ, ATL 8-3 SU & 6-5 ATS. ATL 8-12 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 7-9 ATL since 2007 the week before their bye. ATL 36-27-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. ATL 34-34-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 6-18-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 3-12-1 ATS as a FAV vs <.333 opp. ATL 0-9-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333< opp. ATL 4-13 ATS vs .333< opp. ATL 7-13 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ARZ 16-16-1 ATS L33 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 28-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. ARZ 39-43 ATS as a DOG in NOV. ARZ 18-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 18-7 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG <7pts. ARZ 4-6 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts. ARZ 1-11 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. ARZ 0-6 ATS @HOME vs opp off non-div SU FAV loss. ARZ QB Kyler Murray is slated to start this week but, he will be rusty. He doesn’t have much to come back to without RB James Connor & TE Zach Ertz. As of right now supposedly, Conner is coming back from his knee injury this week but he also will be rusty. The O-LINE for ARZ has yielded 24 sacks and get give the QB the protection he needs. ARZ #8 RUSH OFF is misleading because at the time QB Joshua Dobbs was the 2^nd leading rusher being almost always pressured out of the pocket. ATL needs to get their run game going again, ATL #9 RUSH OFF. This will take a lot of pressure off of Taylor Heinicke and will open a lot of options. ATL needs to get RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson more involved in the game. He is a big target and is tough to bring down. ATL #6 TOT DEF w/#14 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. This may be another game ARZ tries to forget. Take ATL here.

THE PICK: ATL-1

Detroit Lions (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (2-2) ATS                                LAC+1 ½

On MNF, LAC was gve the gift that kees on giving, 3fumbles. On two of those fumbles, LAC was able ti turn them into 14pts. LAC had a punt return for a td and the D-LINE for LAC sacked NYJ QB Zach Wilson 8x. The DEF for LAC did hold NYJ to just 2fgs in a 27-6 win. But the LAC OFF was stopped at times by a NYJ DEF that does keep them in games. DET is coming off a bye and before that they beat LV on MNF, 26-14. If you just looked at the stats of this game, you would have thought DET won by 50pts. But they got a little sloppy and settled for fgs when they should have scored tds. I’m sure that DET HC Dan Campbell has been working on that during the bye. DET QB Jared Goff is playing well and making better choices and RB Jahmyr Gibbs is making the most of his starts in place of injured RB David Montgomery. L4 DET vs LAC, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS but HOME 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. DET 8-5 ATS L13 as a ROAD FAV. DET 10-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye. DET 22-38 ATS AWAY in NOV. DET 25-24 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DET 10-7-1 ATS w/rest. DET 9-0 ATS L9 vs opp off SUATS win. LAC 6-8-1 ATS L15 as a HOME DOG. LAC 28-38 ATS @HOME in NOV. LAC 38-29 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAC 3-14 ATS vs opp w/rest. LAC 0-9 ATS @HOME vs opp w/rest. DET is coming off a bye and LAC is coming off a short week. Who will be ready to go? DET HC Dan Campbell doesn’t look like the type to let his team rest on their laurels. He has something to prove and is trying to change the culture in DET. The LAC OFF looked stagnated most of the evening on MNF @NYJ. They were given gifts because the NYJ OFF is so bad and turned the ball over 3x. LAC QB Justin Herbert was sacked 5x. Fortunately, LAC did not turn the ball over. The LAC DEF should not rest on their win @NYJ because this week they are playing a DET team that is very good at driving down the field and scoring points. DET #2 TOT OFF w/#6 RUSH OFF & #6 PASS OFF. LAC record is deceiving. They have beaten @MINN, LV, CHI & @NYJ. They have lost vs MIA, @TENN, vs DAL & @KC. Where does DET stand with those teams? DET #6 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF. You could honestly say that right now DET is a total team on OFF & DEF. LAC will have a tough moving the ball against a team that has something to prove. I like DET here coming off their bye.

THE PICK: DET-1 ½  

New York Giants (2-7), (2-6-1) ATS, (1-4) AWAY, (1-4) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS                                NYG+16

For NYG @LV, the worst scenario happened in that QB Daniel Jones tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season. He just came back after a neck injury and he was swarmed by an LV D-LINE that was reborn and playing against an already terrible NYG O-LINE. In comes in QB Tommy DeVito and he actually plays decent considering the situation. But, NYG can only muster a dummy td in a 30-6 loss. I say dummy because it was in the 4^th qtr when LV was up 27-0. In this game NYG QBs were sacked 8x & had 2INTS. The NYG DEF did not sack LV QB Aidan O’Connell 1x or get an INT. LW, DAL lost a game they could have and should have won. But PHILLY toys with you and almost lets you make your own mistakes. DAL QB Dak Prescott had a pretty god game with 3tds, 0INTS & 0fumbles. But he missed open receivers when the game was on the line. DAL WR Brandin Cooks was wide open in the endzone when Prescott threw a 4^th down pass that was inches from the endzone. PHILLY won 28-23. Also, Prescott stepped out of bounds on a 2pt conversion that would have closed the gap to to 28-25 and made the last drive all about a fg instead of a td. L16 DAL(H) vs NYG, DAL 11-5 SU & 8-7-1 ATS. L13 DAL vs NYG, DAL 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS. L29 DAL vs NYG, ROAD 16-12-1 ATS. NYG 9-10-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYG 7-9-2 ATS as a DOG in 2^nd of BB RGs. NYG 24-35-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYG 24-29-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 24-27 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. NYG 15-11 ATS as a div DOG 4>pts. NYG 15-5 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 9-6 ATS before WASH. NYG 4-11 ATS after scoring 10<pts. 16-2 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs opp off SU loss. DAL 44-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. DAL 48-35 ATS as a FAV in NOV. DAL 29-24 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 8-25-1 ATS @HOME after SU conf loss. DAL 4-21 ATS as a HOME FAV after a conf loss. DAL 2-8 ATS as a HOME FAV off SU div loss. DAL 22-10 ATS as a div FAV >2pts. DAL 11-0 ATS as a FAV 2>pts off div gm vs <.500 opp. DAL is coming off a game that they were handed to a on a silver platter but lost. They made a couple of important mistakes and should have won the game. They should be pissed but this may make them more focused. NYG are just terrible in every aspect. Jones is out and Tyrod Taylor may be out for the rest of the season too. So it’s Devito’s team or Matt Barkley. Barkley is not an upgrade from Devito because he is very rusty and wasn’t that good to begin with. If you thought the 1^st meeting between these two teams in wk 1 was lopsided (DAL 40-0), you haven’t seen anything yet. NYG should be thinking top 5 pick with their scouts looking at every possible QB in the country. DAL should be focusing themselves on how to get better and not make the little mistakes that separate wins from losses. DAL will run over and pass over NYG in this game. The O-LINE for NYG is terrible and even RB Saquon Barkley can’t save it. Look for some turnovers by NYG. Lay the points here as DAL blows the roof off.

THE PICK: DAL-16

Washington Commanders (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (5-3), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS           WASH+6

LW, SEA had their doors blown off @BALT, 37-3. SEA couldn’t do anything right and BALT couldn’t d anything wrong. It was BALT 17-3 at the half and the game was over. BALT put 515yds of OFF & SEA couldn’t stop it. WASH caught a break @NE. NE was driving for what looked like a winning td or tying fg but instead a pass that should have been caught was intercepted by WASH and game over. WASH won 20-17. WASH QB Sam Howell had a pretty good game but it was a game that went back and forth until the 4^th qtr. How they respond this week is anyone’s guess. L7 WASH vs SEA, WASH 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS incl WASH @ SEA, WASH 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS. WASH 8-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. WASH 4-13 ATS as a DOG in 2^nd of BB RGs. WASH 2-13 ATS as a DOG <12pts in 2^nd of BB RGs. WASH 33-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 16-11-1 ATS before NYG. WASH 15-6 ATS off SU DOG win. SEA 33-36 ATS @HOME in NOV. SEA 35-41 ATS as a FAV in NOV. SEA 5-11 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500< opp. SEA 6-8 ATS before LAR. SEA 8-2 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. SEA 4-8 ATS after non-conf ROAD gm. SEA is coming off a big beat down @BALT. I thought they would keep it competitive but they were blown off the field on both OFF & DEF. It was over at halftime. OK, time to regroup for SEA. SEA SS Jamal Adams has to make some plays. He has been useless for SEA and needs to step up. WASH was lucky last week @NE. That INT by NE at the end of the game was not the NE QB’s fault. It was a lucky catch. The WASH DEF is missing 2key guys upfront (DEs Sweat & Young) that may let SEA run wild. WASH #20 RUSH DEF. SEA needs to get their RUN OFF going so that Geno doesn’t feel he needs to win the game by himself. If SEA can establish their run game, it’s over for WASH. If they cannot, WASH will take over. WASH was able to sustain the run game @NE but Howell put the ball in the air 45x. He did spread the ball around nicely to 9different receivers. The SEA DEF cannot let Howell get comfortable. They need to make stops. SEA needs a spotter to help stop the run.  I like SEA here in a major bounceback.     

THE PICK: SEA-6

Sunday November 12^th, 2023 8:20pm

New York Jets (4-4), (4-3-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-1-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-5), (4-5) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                          LV+1 ½  

LW, LV @HOME took apart a NYG team that is going nowhere, 30-6. NYG scored their only td, missing the 2pt conversion, when the score was 27-0 in the 4^th qtr. LV sacked NYG QBs 8x. LV DE Maxx Crosby had 3 sacks. NYG Daniel Jones suffered a non-contact torn ACL and was replaced by Tommy DeVito. He did his best as did RB Saquon Barkley but without a strong O-LINE, NYG were on the run the whole game. LV seems to have new life with Antonio Pierce as their interim HC and some assistant coaches gone. On MNF, NYJ @HOME could only muster 2fgs while LAC wore them down to a 27-6 loss. NYJ QB Zach Wilson was sacked 8x. The DEF for NYJ was playing well but eventually they wore down too. Wilson had 2 lost fumbles and WR Garrett Wilson had a lost fumble as well. Two of those fumbles by NYJ were turned into 2tds by LAC. The NYJ DEF did make some stops but couldn’t hold all night. L8 NYJ vs LV, NYJ 2-6 SU but 4-3-1 ATS. NYJ 6-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV on SNF. NYJ 2-8-2 ATS L12 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 5-13-2 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYJ 28-27 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYJ 22-29 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NYJ 6-14 ATS AWAY vs AFC WEST. NYJ 9-8 ATS before BUFF. NYJ 9-6 ATS L15 after scoring <10pts. NYJ 12-10 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs conf opp. LV 7-4 ATS @HOME on SNF. LV 10-9 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LV 17-17-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. LV 6-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LV 41-34 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LV 25-37-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 7-2 ATS L9 @HOME vs AFC EAST. NYJ are coming off a BIG MNF loss. LV is coming off a nice win @HOME vs NYG. The DEF for NYJ has kept NYJ competitive but with an inept OFF, the DEF gets tired of being on the field. That’s what happened on MNF vs LAC. Eventually the DEF gets worn down and the opposing OFF can score. LV should take note. LV QB Aidan O’Connell and the rest of the team need to stay patient and it will come. NYJ have 2 impressive wins, wk 1 vs BUFF and wk 6 vs PHILLY. NYJ actually played a good game on OFF vs PHILLY even though Wilson was sacked 5x. Plus, NYJ scored only 1OFF td. The DEF was the hero of the game. The O-LINE is atrocious for NYJ as Zach Wilson has been sacked 31x. How NYJ is favored in this game, I don’t know. But I like LV @HOME to win this game unless they turn the ball over. NYJ #30 RUSH DEF. LV should go heavy run and drop in some passes. How many sacks will DE Maxx Crosby get?

THE PICK: LV+1 ½

Monday November 13^th, 2023 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (3-5), (2-6) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (0-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (5-4), (3-6) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (2-3) ATS                                             DEN+7 ½

On SNF, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow toyed with BUFF. He could have embarrassed them by putting up some big numbers. He knows he may see them again in the playoffs. However, he did what he had to do to win and cover. BUFF was outmatched and they were losing 24-10 before BUFF scored a dummy td with a 2pt conversion to make the final score 24-18. The CINNCY DEF held the BUFF running game in check to 68yds while QB Josh Allen stayed predictable and threw completed passes to only 6receivers. DEN is coming off a bye but before that, @HOME they walloped KC 24-9. The DEF played superb and created 2INTS and 3lost fumbles. Granted, KC QB Pat Mahomes had the flu and wasn’t 100% but DEN did play a great game and KC was off its mark. Also, DEN rushed for 153yds on 40 carries against a usually stingy KC DEF. Let’s see if that will continue. L8 DEN vs BUFF, BUFF 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS. DEN 11-5 ATS since 2007 off their bye. DEN 8-14 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. DEN 3-7-1 ATS L11 on MNF. DEN 34-37 ATS AWAY in NOV. DEN 27-23 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DEN 3-9 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. BUFF 8-12-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. BUFF 37-25 ATS @HOME in NOV. BUFF 31-23 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BUFF 5-8 ATS before NYJ. BUFF 7-1 ATS vs conf opp w/rest. BUFF 7-0 ATS L7 as a FAV vs AFC WEST. BUFF is a team that has suddenly become overrated and in the middle of the pack. . I said this last week and they showed it @CINNCY. The BUFF DEF sacked Burrow 1x and created 0turnovers. DEN has had a couple of weeks to prepare for this game and they need to go run heavy at BUFF. BUFF #18 RUSH DEF vs DEN #11 RUSH OFF. If the run game can get going for DEN and take some pressure off of QB Russell Wilson, DEN could win this game outright. I like DEN here with the points because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain while the pressure is on BUFF to bounce back after being beaten @CINNCY on SNF. Russell Wilson needs to win a game like this to show everyone that he can lead and that the win vs KC, wasn’t a fluke. By the way, OLB Von Miller should be released. He has 0sacks and next to nothing in tackles in 5games for BUFF this season. Take DEN & the points because that ½ pt may come in handy.

THE PICK: DEN+7 ½