2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 15 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

Thursday December 14^th, 2023 8:15pm

Los Angeles Chargers (5-8), (4-8-1) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (2-3-1) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-8), (6-6-1) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-2-1) ATS         LAC+3  

LW, LAC was @HOME vs DEN. I liked DEN+2 ½ because they were motivated off their loss @HOU. LAC is not motivated by anything especially their 6-0 win @NE the week before. This game was all DEN and LAC didn’t score any points until DEN was already up 17-0 in the 4^th qtr. DEN felt a little pressure and delivered with a td to make the final score DEN 24-7. Early in the game, LAC QB Justin Herbert broke a finger on his throwing hand and was replaced by backup QB Easton Stick. He didn’t do too badly but was thrown in a situation with no real practice reps. LW, LV was @HOME vs MINN. The DEF for LV played well but the OFF for LV couldn’t get anything going. The score was 0-0 going into the 4^th qtr. MINN got a late fg and then answered with an INT to stop LV from moving down the field for a possible tie or go ahead td. The final score was 3-0. I like MINN-3 in this game because they were coming off a bye and before that a loss @HOME vs CHI. LV is in a flux just to see who will still be on the team in 2024. L16 LAC @LV, LAC 9-7 SU & 8-6-1 ATS 1NL. L26 LAC vs LV, ROAD 13-11-1 ATS 1NL. L28 LAC vs LV, DOG 19-7-1 ATS 1NL. LAC 6-4 ATS AWAY on TNF. LAC 10-5 ATS on TNF. LAC 8-5 ATS vs AFC WEST on TNF. LAC 32-32 ATS as a DOG in DEC. LAC 29-37-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LAC 36-33-4 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAC 37-28-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. LAC 9-0-1 ATS AWAY after scoring 10<pts. LAC 8-6 ATS after DEN. LAC 16-1 ATS L17 after SU DD FAV loss. LV 19-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LV 7-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. LV 28-40-1 ATS vs AFC WEST in DEC. LV 30-42-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. LV 4-8 ATS vs AFC on TNF. LV 2-6 ATS on TNF off non-div opp. LV 0-4 ATS as a FAV on TNF. LV 3-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. LV 6-4 ATS after scoring 7<pts. LV 4-17 ATS as a DOG vs opp off SU FAV loss. LV 5-1 ATS L6 @HOME vs opp off SU FAV loss. These two teams played in wk 4 @LAC with LAC winning 24-17. That was a sloppy game for both teams. LAC QB Justin Herbert will be out for this game and Easton Stick will start. The line moved from LV+3 ½ to LAC+3 after it was announced that Herbert would be out. Both of these teams have a lot of questions to be answered in the off-season and both will probably have new HCs. Both of these teams are playing out the string. But, I like LV here to win on the short week because Stick will pressured by an LV team that is looking to avoid the season sweep. LV should be able to get their run game going vs an LAC team that sometimes disappears on DEF. LV will be pumped @HOME and should win by a td. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: LV-3

Saturday December 16^th, 2023 1:00pm

Minnesota Vikings (7-6), (8-4-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (6-0-1) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), (7-6) ATS, (4-3) HOME, (4-3) ATS         MINN+3 ½  

LW, the MINN OFF looked so bad with QB Joshua Dobbs that he was replaced by Nick Mullens. Mullens orchestrated a drive late in the 4^th qtr that resulted in the only points scored by either a team, a fg in a 3-0 win for MINN. Mullens didn’t look bad and will probably start this game after Dobbs has looked horrible in the last few games. LW, I liked CINNCY+1 @HOME because CINNCY QB Jake Browning sold me on his performance @JAGS on MNF. He continued his well playing in this game as I predicted and INDY was never in it even though the score was 14-14 at the half. In the 2^nd half the DEF for CINNCY stepped up and CINNCY won 34-14. CINNCY RB Chase Brown had another solid game and is a welcome addition to the OFF. CINNCY rushed for over 100yds and that takes pressure off of the other RB, Joe Mixon. L5 MINN vs CINNCY, MINN 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS incl MINN @CINNCY, MINN 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS. MINN 17-4 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. MINN 32-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. MINN 34-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 8-10 SU & 11-7 ATS L18 AWAY outdoors vs non-div. MINN 4-9 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. CINNCY 12-8-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CINNCY 50-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 29-21 ATS as a FAV in DEC. 48-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 12-4-1 ATS before PITT. CINNCY 8-8-1 ATS L17 off BB SU wins. MINN QB Nick Mullens is a good backup QB but nothing more. WR Justin Jefferson came back last game, got injured and is supposed to be back for this game. But CINNCY has picked up where they left off and is in a solid position to win games and get into the playoffs. The DEF for CINNCY is underrated but they make plays when they need them. If MINN could score some points they may be able win this game. MINN #10 TOT DEF w/#5 RUSH DEF & #14 PASS DEF. Browning should be able to play well but the MINN DEF will be on him. MINN is a DOME team that actually plays decent away from the DOME & outside vs non-div so the points they are getting is a big factor here. Their DEF is the toughest that Browning will face and this game should go down to the wire but I like MINN here with Mullens.     

THE PICK: MINN+3 ½

Saturday December 16^th, 2023 4:30pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (7-6), (8-5) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS                        PITT+3

On TNF, PITT was @HOME vs NE and a FAV-6. I liked NE in this game and PITT was playing catchup for the whole game. The PITT DEF which usually doesn’t give up much, gave up 3passing tds to NE QB Bailey Zappe and NE won 21-18.  The PITT run game was stopped by a tight NE DEF that doesn’t give up much either. LW, INDY was beat up @CINNCY 34-14. The game was 14-14 at the half but, CINNCY made adjustments while INDY did not. INDY scored 0pts in the 2^nd half and couldn’t get out of there own way. L10 PITT vs INDY, PITT 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS, PITT 30-32 ATS AWAY in DEC. PITT 24-15 ATS as a DOG in DEC. 13-18 ATS before CINNCY. PITT 16-24 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 16-8 ATS off SUATS loss vs opp off SUATS loss. PITT 24-7 ATS as a DOG vs .500>opp. PITT 2-6 ATS w/rest vs opp off SU loss. PITT 10-5 ATS L15 vs AFC SOUTH. PITT 12-7 ATS before div HOME gm. PITT 0-5 ATS off SU non-div HOME FAV loss. INDY 37-35-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. INDY 32-28-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. INDY 1-7 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 17-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 16-6-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs <1.000 opp. INDY 1-4 ATS as a non-div FAV 7<pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 7-10 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 12-3 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. INDY 14-6 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. INDY 8-14 ATS vs .400> opp off SUATS loss. INDY 3-13 ATS vs .400> conf opp off SUATS loss. INDY 1-8 ATS vs non-div conf opp off SUATS loss. Both teams are coming off losses and both are still in the hunt for a wild card playoff spot. PITT is coming off 2straight losses while INDY was just overmatched. PITT QB Mitch Trubisky will be the starter for PITT as Pickett is still out. PITT needs to get their run game going to be successful. PITT #15 RUSH OFF vs INDY #26 RUSH DEF. This would take a lot of pressure off of Trubisky and he could focus in on dropping some passes in instead of thinking he needs to win the game on his own. The INDY DEF is vulnerable to a good run game. PITT LB TJ Watt will probably be out of this game because as of right now he is in concussion protocol. But, in any case, the DEF for PITT needs to step up. INDY QB Gardner Minshew is a pesky one and it takes a little more to bring him down. He is a fighter and if he sees a chance, he will take it as he did vs TENN. But last week, CINNCY shut him down and that is what PITT has to do here. I like PITT on a double bounceback with the points.

THE PICK: PITT+3

Saturday December 16^th, 2023 8:15pm

Denver Broncos (7-6), (5-8) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Detroit Lions (9-4), (8-5) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS                                       DEN+5  

LW, I liked DEN+2 ½ @LAC. They didn’t disappoint. LAC is a messs and DEN stormed out to a 17-0 lead before LAC got a td in the 4^th qtr. DEN answered right back with a td and the final was DEN 24-7. The DEN DEF is tough and they stopped LAC from doing any real damage in this game. LAC QB Justin Herbert was knocked out with a broken finger on his throwing hand. DEN QB Russell Wilson looked good here and the run game helped him out rushing for over 100yds. LW, DET was at CHI and DET was a ROAD FAV-3 ½ . I liked CHI here because DET is fading and not looking good. Plus, in the 1^st meeting @DET a few weeks ago between CHI & DET, CHI should have won that game but, CHI blew the game late and DET won. Here, CHI took a 10-0 lead only to see DET take a 13-0 lead by the half. But somehow DET was shut down by the CHI DEF in the 2^nd half and CHI won 28-13. L5 DEN vs DET, DEN 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. DEN 25-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DEN 34-42-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DEN 15-12 ATS off SU DOG win. DEN 6-9 ATS after LAC. DEN 9-11 ATS as a non-conf DOG 2>pts. DEN 1-6 ATS after allowing 7<pts. DEN 1-10 ATS off SUATS div HM win. DEN 5-9 ATS as a non-div DOG >3pts vs .650>opp. DET 22-24 ATS as a FAV in DEC. DET 34-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. DET 25-34-1 ATS L60 @HOME vs non-div. DET 9-11-1 ATS after CHI. DET 1-10 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs opp off SUATS win. DET is not looking good these days. Their DEF seems to disappear when they are needed most. DET QB Jared Goff is not looking comfortable out there as he was earlier in the season. DET is a team that hasn’t won in so long that they are not accustomed to winning. You still have to play tough for 60minutes. DEN #13 RUSH OFF vs DET #9 RUSH DEF. If DEN can get their run game going, he will be able to drop passes in and keep the DET DEF guessing. DEN QB Russell Wilson has been here before but he needs to have a good game because DEN actually is still alive for the playoffs. The DEN DEF is tough and they have a shot here at knocking a good team back. On the other side DEN is not that great at stopping the run but has been good of late, DEN #32 RUSH DEF. The key for DEN is to put pressure on Goff but, they also need to stop the DET run game as well. DET RBs Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery & Jameson Williams can wreak havoc on a DEF if they are allowed to get going. This will be a close game but I like DEN here with the points.

THE PICK: DEN+5

Sunday December 17^th, 2023 1:00pm

Chicago Bears (5-8), (7-6) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (8-5), (6-7) ATS, (6-1) HOME, (5-2) ATS                                   CHI+3

LW, the CLEV DEF almost gave up the game. If it wasn’t for JAGS HC Doug Pederson making a bad decision late, who knows what would have happened. CLEV was up 31-21 and JAGS scored a td. But, instead of kicking the point after, Pederson called for a 2pt conversion play. JAGS miss, score CLEV 31-27. Now they need the onside kick and a td. JAGS didn’t get the onside kick but it was added pressure on a team that couldn’t hold onto the ball. JAGS HC gave CLEV some relief with that decision. This was a sloppy game for both teams as JAGS had 4turnovers and CLEV 3turnovers. This game could have easily gone the other way. CLEV escaped with a win. LW, I loved CHI @HOME as a HOME DOG+3 ½ . Why? Because DET is fading and not looking the same as at the beginning of the season and CHI wanted a little revenge for their loss at DET a few weeks ago. CHI had that game but blew it late and DET won. This time around CHI took a 10-0 lead but DET made it DET 13-10 by halftime. CHI then stepped up their DEF and allowed 0points in the 2^nd half while CHI scored 18pts to win 28-13. CHI played a great game with 0turnovers and their DEF took care of the rest. It was a nice win for CHI. L5 CHI vs CLE, CHI 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS, HOME 4-1 SUATS. CHI 23-41 ATS AWAY in DEC. CHI 32-51 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CHI 10-8 ATS AWAY after SU DOG win. CHI 14-11 ATS AWAY vs non-conf. CLEV 8-18 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CLEV 17-30-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. CLEV 10-16-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. CLEV 18-23-1 ATS L42 vs NFC. CLEV 5-10 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV 3>pts. CLEV 7-2-3 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. CLEV 7-2-1 ATS as a non-div FAV vs opp off DD SU win. The CHI DEF is underrated and some teams take them for granted. CHI #12 TOT DEF w/#2 RUSH DEF & #23 PASS DEF. It seems when they need a stoppage, they get it. Well, they will have their hands full in this game. But, they need to put pressure on CLEV QB Joe Flacco. He is not mobile like CHI QB Justin Fields and will not run. Fileds will take off but still needs to make better decisions and not turn the ball over. CLEV has a DEF that creates turnovers. CLEVE #1 TOT DEF w/#11 RUSH DEF & #1 PASS DEF. CLEV also has 12 INTS & 38 sacks. CHI has to get their run game going so that Fields can find his receivers. Turnovers will be crucial in this game and CHI can be spoilers against CLEV’s chances of securing a playoff spot. I like CHI to play it close because Fields is also trying to show that he deserves to be the starter and he needs to beat good teams outside the division. Take CHI and the points. 

THE PICK: CHI+3

Atlanta Falcons (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-12), (3-9-1) ATS, (1-4) HOME, (1-3-1) ATS                      CAR+3

LW, ATL was @HOME vs TB as a FAV-2 ½ . I like TB because they had something to play for and it was the revenge factor playing for the TB loss in wk 7 @TB where ATL won. TB didn’t disappoint even if it went down to the wire. ATL had the game but let TB drive down the length of the field in the last 3minutes to get a td and win 29-25. LW, CAR rushed over NO for 204yds but made mistakes all over the field which led to a 28-6 defeat. In the 2^nd half CAR had 1fg, a missed fg and 3possessions turned over on downs. This game was only NO 14-6 in the 4^th qtr and was reachable but CAR couldn’t get in sync and gave up 2tds within 2minutes late in the 34^th qtr for their 12^th loss. L16 ATL @CAR, ATL 9-7 SU & 9-7 ATS. L25 ATL vs CAR, HOME 14-11 ATS. L23 ATL vs CAR, DOG 14-9 ATS. ATL 9-13 ATS L22 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 31-33-1 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. ATL 35-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. ATL 40-36 ATS AWAY in DEC. ATL 7-10 ATS after TB. ATL 2-7 ATS as a ROAD FAV 2>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 4-12-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333<opp. ATL 0-9-1 ATS as a conf FAV <9pts vs .333<opp. ATL 4-13-1 ATS vs .333<opp. ATL 8-13 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 2-9 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV 2>pts. CAR 12-14-2 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. CAR 13-8-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CAR 34-26 ATS @HOME in DEC. CAR 33-23 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in DEC. CAR 40-27 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CAR 16-10-1 ATS off SUATS loss. CAR 11-9 ATS w/div revenge. CAR 10-9 ATS as a div DOG >1pt w/revenge. CAR 14-3-1 ATS off DD SU conf ROAD loss. These two teams played in wk 1 @ATL with ATL winning that game 24-10. In that game, ATL QB Desmond Ridder looked decent and didn’t turn the ball over. The game was 7-7 at the half but some turnovers by CAR and some DEF by ATL gave ATL the game. ATL has something to play for here. ATL is playing for a playoff spot and has a winnable schedule. ATL just has to keep winning though. After CAR, ATL plays vs INDY, @CHI & @NO. ATL would win the NFC SOUTH. As for CAR they are playing for jobs and will have a new HC after the season. CAR QB Bryce Young needs to work on his mechanics. Plus, they need to fill some holes all over. ATL has something to play for and CAR has a chance to knock a possible playoff team a little backwards. CAR will try to use their run game to keep the ATL DEF confused but hopefully they will adjust. ATL is on a bounceback after the loss vs TB and I see a hard fought game by CAR but ATL should win this game by at least a fg. ATL #15 RUSH DEF. Lay the points here.  

THE PICK: ATL-3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7), (7-6) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (6-7), (5-8) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS             TB+3 ½  

LW, TB QB Baker Mayfield orchestrated a late 4^th qtr drive @ATL that was the game winner. TB was down 25-22 and TB moved the ball down the field in 12plays for 75yds and a td to win 29-25. Mayfield played well in this game and the running game helped him out too for 148yds &1td on 37 carries. TB had 0turnovers. I liked TB+2 ½ because I felt the game would go down to the wire. But I felt that Mayfield is in a situation where he still is proving himself and that TB was pissed off they way they lost earlier @HOME to ATL. LW on MNF, GB looked like a team that hadn’t won a game all season. GB QB Jordan Love was off his passes and made mistakes all over the field. The GB DEF didn’t play well either and let NYG control this game. GB was in the redzone 5x but only came up with tds 2x. NYG were in the redzone 4x and came up with tds, 3x. The GB DEF gave up 209yds rushing &2tds on 34carries to NYG. GB couldn’t stop the run or the passes that NYG was dropping in. GB deserved to lose. Even with all the OFF that was coming in from NYG, NYG needed a fg at the end to win 24-22. L8 TB vs GB, TB 4-4 SU & 4-4 ATS. TB 11-16-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. TB 28-39-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. TB 34-42-3 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TB 29-30-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 8-5-1 ATS after ATL. TB 3-12 ATS off div ROAD gm vs .700< conf opp. TB 6-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 8<pts vs opp off SU ROAD FAV loss. GB 42-26-1 ATS @HOME in DEC. GB 62-37-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. GB 6-6 ATS after MNF. Both teams are battling for a playoff spot even though they are below .500. These two teams met in wk 2 of 2022 @TB with GB winning the game 14-12. But that was a long time ago and the two QBs playing that game were Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady. Not the scenario here. Neither one of these teams has a great DEF. GB #19 TOT DEF & TB #27 TOT DEF. GB is on a bounceback and TB had to come back vs a team that is still trying to find itself. GB is supposed to be getting WR Christian Watson, RB Aaron Jones & CB Jaire Alexander back from injury. As of right now they are questionable but, anyone of these guys back in the lineup would help GB immensely. GB QB Jordan Love has to show that he is able to bounceback from a bad game. That is what good QBs are able to do. They brush off a bad game and look for ways to improve. I am thinking that about Love. GB hasn’t played particularly well @HOME this season but they need to step up here. Lay the points as GB bounceback and gets a nice win.   

THE PICK: GB-3 ½

Houston Texans (7-6), (6-7) ATS, (2-4) AWAY, (2-4) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (5-8), (6-7) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS                                      HOU+2 ½  

On MNF, TENN shocked the world @MIA. MIA was up 27-13 with 3:00 to go in the game and TENN did the impossible. The TENN DEF was able to sack MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa 5x in the game and scored 15pts in those last 3:00 minutes to win 28-27. TENN couldn’t stop the MIA run game but stopped MIA in the redzone when it counted. TENN had 3turnovers that resulted in 14pts for MIA but TENN stayed in this one. TENN QB Will Levis made plays when it counted and TENN came away with an exciting win after being a BIG DOG+13 ½ . LW, HOU was @NYJ and the score was 0-0 at the half. HOU was already without WR Tank Dell and in the 1^st half neither team could get anything going. HOU was ROAD FAV-6 ½ and after the way they have been playing lately, you have to figure that the NYJ wouldn’t show up in this one. But they did and NYJ scored 30pts in the 2^nd half while HOU could only manage 1td with a missed extra pt. Plus, HOU QB CJ Stroud was knocked out with a concussion. The HOU DEF couldn’t stop the NYJ OFF in the 2^nd half as NYJ scored pts on 5 of 6 possessions. L16 HOU @TENN, HOU 8-8 SU & 9-7 ATS. L26 HOU vs TENN, HOU 18-8 ATS. L32 HOU vs TENN, HOME 18-14 ATS. L12 HOU vs TENN, HOU 7-5 ATS. HOU 7-10-3 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. HOU 20-29-2 ATS AWAY in DEC. HOU 20-22-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. HOU 30-30-1 ATS as a DOG in DEC. HOU 7-5-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. HOU 14-9-1 ATS after scoring 10<pts. HOU 16-5-1 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts vs .750<opp. HOU 13-2 ATS L15 off DD ATS loss. TENN 8-13 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. TENN 38-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. TENN 35-42 ATS as a FAV in DEC. TENN 31-34-1 ATS vs AFC SOUTH in DEC. TENN found some life @MIA on MNF. Up to that point, TENN was 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road. So, who thought they would win the game like they did? Especially after so many miscues @HOME vs INDY, the week before? Can they at least finish the season strong? HOU QB CJ Stroud is in concussion protocol which makes his play in this game unlikely. HOU WR Tank Dell is gone for the season and WR Nico Collins is also questionable for this game. These are three BIG reasons why HOU may not win this game. For HOU QB David Mills to be successful he needs to have a decent run game. TENN #14 RUN DEF. TENN needs to shore up their run DEF for them to have a chance in this game. The TENN D-LINE also has to be resilient like they were @MIA. I like TENN here because of all the injuries to HOU. TENN actually plays better @HOME then on the ROAD. This should be a good game but lay the points here.  

THE PICK: TENN-2 ½

New York Jets (5-8), (5-7-1) ATS, (2-3) AWAY, (1-3-1) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (9-4), (8-5) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-3) ATS                                 NYJ+9 ½  

LW, HOU @NYJ was 0-0 at halftime. Then the NYJ woke up and scored 30 2^nd half points. NYJ QB Zach Wilson had a very good half, orchestrating 3tds and 3fgs. This game was in bad weather and NYJ stayed tough, knocking out HOU QB CJ Stroud with a concussion. It was probably the best ½ of football that the NYJ have played since vs PHILLY in wk 6. MIA was @HOME as a HUGE FAV-13 ½ vs TENN. MIA didn’t look good from the beginning and there were many miscues from both teams. TENN hung tough and the MIA OFF looked a little out of sync. However, MIA was up 27-13 with 4:34 to go in the game and couldn’t hold the lead or the game. MIA lost three starting linemen in the game on MNF and WR Tyreek Hill suffered an ankle injury that is listed as day-to-day. As a team MIA looked out of sync as TENN looked like a team that was focused and ready to play. In the end, TENN scored 2tds with a 2pt conversion to beat MIA 28-27 in a shocker. The MIA secondary had really no answer for TENN QB Will Levis but they didn’t make the stops when they needed them at the end of the game. MIA deserved to lose. L16 NYJ @MIA, NYJ 7-9 SU & 10-6 ATS. L33 MIA vs NYJ, DOG 19-13-1 ATS. L28 MIA vs NYJ, ROAD 18-10 ATS. NYJ 39-31-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 48-41-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 30-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. NYJ 30-30-1 ATS L61 as a DOG 7>pts. NYJ 11-19 ATS L30 after scoring 25>pts. MIA 10-7-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB HGs. MIA 27-41 ATS vs AFC EAST in DEC. MIA 34-46 ATS @HOME in DEC. MIA 27-56 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MIA 4-14 ATS @HOME vs <.500 opp off SU win. These two teams met on Black Friday @NYJ with MIA winning 34-13. That was the game with the 99yd INT td on the HAIL MARY by NYJ QB Tim Boyle. That made the score MIA 17-6 at the half and MIA coasted the rest of the way for the easy win. MIA looked completely out of sync on MNF and if they don’t find some kind of rhythm soon, they will be out of the playoffs after one game. There is some revenge in the minds of the NYJ players after they were embarrassed. The DEF for NYJ will have their hands full as MIA can be unstoppable on OFF once they get going. The MIA OFF was certainly missing something on MNF. MIA is in a bounceback situation and NYJ have only pride to play for as they really don’t have a shot at the playoffs, despite what others say. MIA #1 PASS OFF vs NYJ #2 PASS DEF. I like MIA to win this game but NYJ somehow find a way to keep it close. I like NYJ with the points here.    

THE PICK: NYJ+9 ½

New York Giants (5-8), (5-7-1) ATS, (2-5) AWAY, (2-5) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (6-7), (4-8-1) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (1-5) ATS                        NYG+5

On MNF, NYG was BIG HOME DOG @+6 ½ vs GB. Well, they didn’t play like a DOG and they beat GB 24-22 on a last second fg. NYG QB Tommy DeVito outplayed GB QB Jordan Love and the NYG rushed for 209 yds & 2tds on 34 carries. GB had 3turnovers and a missed fg that gave NYG multiple chances at scoring. The GB DEF was on the field a lot and DeVito and company took full advantage of it. DeVito spread the ball around nicely and only missed four passes all night. GB couldn’t make stops when they needed and had trouble in the red zone. All in all, a good win for NYG. LW, NO was @HOME vs CAR and built up a 14-3 lead by the half. But, NO can’t do things the easy way and it was 14-6 in the 4^th qtr when NO scored 2tds off 2 CAR possessions that turned over on downs and the game was NO 28-6. But it looked harder than the score might suggest. NO had a missed fg early and an INT which made the game interesting to say the least. NO gave up 204yds rushing to CAR but CAR couldn’t get into the endzone for a td. L9 NYG vs NO, NYG 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS. NYG 8-14-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYG 48-35 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 39-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYG 16-6 ATS as a conf ROAD DOG 5>pts. NYG 25-7 ATS as a DOG 5>pts after an SU win. NYG 5-7-1 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU DOG win. NYG 12-3 ATS as a ROAD DOG 5>pts vs .600<opp. NYG 9-4 ATS vs <.500 opp off SUATS win. NO 28-44-3 ATS @HOME in DEC. NO 38-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. NO 21-3 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SU DOG win. NO 9-12 ATS @HOME off DD SU win. NO 3-8 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500 non-div opp. I have said this before. NO looks good on paper but that doesn’t always translate to the field. NO QB Derek Carr makes things harder than they should be because he is nervous. He will make some mistakes in this game and that will give extra opportunities to NYG. NO made a couple of plays that were the difference in their game vs CAR, otherwise it could have gone the other way. But beating CAR is no big deal. But giving up 204yds rushing is. I like NYG with points here because with DeVito as their QB, NYG seem like they never give up. He looks comfortable at the QB position and tries to spread the OFF as best he can. Plus, he is mobile. The momentum and upswing that NYG have right now may work for them when they play PHILLY 2x in 3games. But for this game I like NYG and the points. I strongly feel that if they do not turn the ball over, they should win outright. NO doesn’t scare me and they shouldn’t scare NYG.

THE PICK: NYG+5

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5), (7-6) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ New England Patriots (3-10), (3-9-1) ATS, (1-6) HOME, (1-5-1) ATS          NE+9 ½  

LW, KC was robbed. As I said earlier you can’t not make that call all game and then all of a sudden call it at the end of the game. The officials have to be consistent. Anyway, KC should have won and that would have been the end of that game @KC vs BUFF. On TNF, I loved NE+6 @PITT. With QB Mitch Trubisky in for Kenny Pickett, PITT was less likely to win. Pickett doesn’t turn the ball over as much. But like I said, the NE DEF is underrated and they came up BIG vs PITT. NE QB Bailey Zappe was BIG with 3tds and NE held onto a late surge by PITT, to win 21-18. It was a good win for NE. L9 KC vs NE, KC 5-4 SU & 6-2-1 ATS. KC 26-25-1 ATS L52 as a ROAD FAV. KC 44-28-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC.34-37-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 20-19-1 ATS L40 vs AFC EAST. KC 18-10 AT as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 1-9 ATS as a non-div conf ROAD FAV 1-9 ATS. 20-11 ATS after an SU loss. NE 6-7-1 ATS L14 as a HOME DOG. NE 25-17-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NE 37-26-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. NE 18-5 ATS off SU non-div DOG win. NE 4-12 ATS off SU non-div win vs .500> non div opp. NE 6-7 ATS vs non-div conf opp off BB SU losses. NE 20-9 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. NE 3-9 ATS L12 as a DOG vs .500>opp. KC may have to play a playoff game on the road but right now they need to get to the playoffs. KC can’t afford to lose any games going forward. They have a reinvigorated DEN team right behind them in the AFC WEST and KC seeding for the playoffs is very much up in the air. KC is on a double bounceback. Now they play a NE team that has nothing to lose. NE # 8 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #15 PASS DEF. The NE DEF is what keeps them hanging around in some games even though they have lost. NE has only lost by more than 7pts, 3x this season which says a lot for a team that is 3-10. If Zappe can find some consistency, NE might have a chance to win this game. But as crazy as this might sound, I like KC winning this game but NE will keep it close with their DEF. At the most, KC wins by a td. Also, NE needs to get their run game going to take some pressure off of Zappe. Look for NE to get some extra opportunities because of their DEF. I like NE with the points.

THE PICK: NE+9 ½

Sunday December 17^th, 2023 4:00pm

Washington Commanders (3-10), (5-8) ATS, (3-4) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (6-7), (8-5) ATS, (3-3) HOME, (4-2) ATS                      WASH+6 ½

LW, LAR gave BALT all they could handle @BALT. This game went back and forth and LAR was taking it to a usually stingy BALT DEF. BALT needed a punt return for td in OT to win 37-31. The LAR DEF couldn’t stop the BALT OFF otherwise LAR would have won the game. LAR didn’t turn the ball over and rushed for 100 yds in the loss. I had liked BALT-7 because I pointed out that LAR hasn’t beaten anyone good and have lost to all good teams. But they hung tough with BALT even in OT. WASH is coming off a bye and before that were manhandled @HOME by MIA, 45-15. This game was 31-7 at the half and MIA coasted the rest of the way to the win. The WASH DEF couldn’t stop MIA who were in 1^st gear all game. The WASH DEF didn’t even sack MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa 1x. He had all day to throw the ball. L11 WASH vs LAR, WASH 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS. WASH 4-12 ATS since 2007 after their bye. WASH 15-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. WASH 15-5 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1^st of BB RGs. WASH 39-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 41-38 ATS as a DOG in DEC. WASH 6-15 AST w/rest. LAR 10-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LAR 30-36 ATS @HOME in DEC. LAR 38-30 ATS as a FAV in DEC. LAR 9-4 ATS as a HOME FAV 2>pts vs .250<non-div opp. LAR 11-4 ATS as a FAV 13<pts off SU loss. LAR 13-4 ATS vs <.333 opp. LAR 1-3 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT loss. LAR still has something to play for because SEA lost and LAR has a better division record. WASH HC Ron Rivera is dead man walking. The OFF has some good players but the O-LINE has given up 58 sacks of QB Sam Howell, totally unacceptable. The DEF has been shredded and can’t stop anyone. LAR #10 TOT OFF vs WASH # 32 TOT DEF. This game has blowout written all over it as LAR rolls and add at least 4 more sacks to Howell and he will have 62. Also, WASH is a terrible team after their bye and that only adds to the misery of playing out the string. LAR should have no trouble scoring against this team. Lay the points here. 

THE PICK: LAR-6 ½

San Francisco 49ers (10-3), (9-4) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (4-3) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (3-10), (6-7) ATS, (2-4) HOME, (3-3) ATS                    ARZ+13 ½  

LW, SF was @HOME vs SEA. This was a rematch of a few weeks ago and SF knew SEA would come out motivated to play. SEA QB Geno Smith was out for this game but Drew Lock held his own. After the 1^st qtr, SEA was up 10-7. This was a close game for a while and even SF 21-16 but the DEF for SF took over and SF added a td to make the final score SF 28-16. SF had over 500yds of OFF and SF probably could have scored more points. ARZ is coming off a bye. Before that bye they shocked PITT @PITT, 24-10. This game was interrupted by weather delays but ARZ kept their composure as they balanced their OFF with 15yds rushing and 145 yds passing. ARZ didn’t have any turnovers but recovered a PITT fumble that was turned into a td. ARZ RB James Connor had a nice game back in PITT with 105yds & 2tds on 25 carries. L16 SF @ARZ, SF 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS. L29 SF vs ARZ, SF 16-13 SU & 15-14 ATS. L17 SF vs ARZ, DOG 9-8 ATS. L15 SF vs ARZ, ROAD 11-4 ATS. SF 16-13 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. SF 30-44 ATS AWAY in DEC. SF 24-29 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. SF 39-45-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 2-11 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp w/revenge. SF 10-22 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. ARZ 17-17-1 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 6-8-2 ATS since 2007 after their bye. ARZ 33-26 ATS vs NFC WEST in DEC. ARZ 41-35 ATS @HOME in DEC. ARZ 48-41 ATS as a DOG in DEC. ARZ 9-2 ATS w/rest vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 7-1 ATS w/rest vs opp off DD SU win. ARZ 20-9 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. These two teams played in wk 4 @SF with SF winning 35-16. In that game SF was a FAV -14 and Joshua Dobbs was the QB for ARZ. Brock Purdy was 20/21 for 283yds & 1td. SF ran the ball for 124yds &4tds on 31carries. The score was SF 21-10 at the half but ARZ made it 21-16 before SF pulled away with 2tds in the 4^th qtr. SF is a team that is mighty tough to stop once they get going, just ask SEA. SF is playing for the #1 seed and if they win all the rest of their games, they will have it. SF stopped the run vs SEA. I don’t see ARZ RB Connor getting 150yds vs this team. SF #7 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. ARZ doesn’t have receivers that measure up to SEA. ARZ QB Kyler Murray will be getting a lot of heat in this game. SF knows that Murray likes to run but they need to keep him in the pocket where he will make some mistakes. The OFF for SF should score very time they have the ball like they did vs PHILLY and PHILLY is a better team. SF should blowout ARZ to keep their hopes going for the #1 seed. Lay the points here.   

THE PICK: SF-13 ½

Dallas Cowboys (10-3), (9-4) ATS, (3-3) AWAY, (3-3) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (7-6), (5-7-1) ATS, (5-2) HOME, (3-4) ATS                                    DAL+2 ½  

LW, on SNF DAL@HOME took it to PHILLY 33-13. It really wasn’t a game as the DEF for PHILLY couldn’t stop the DAL OFF and the PHILLY OFF couldn’t get rolling. DAL was dominant on both sides of the ball. DAL rolled up over 400yds of OFF while putting PHILLY in catchup mode early to no avail. LW @KC, BUFF got away lucky. We all saw the play so I won’t go over it again. But, if you don’t make that call all game, don’t wait until 1:00 left in the game to start making that call, be consistent. BUFF should have lost and should be 6-7 instead of 7-6. BUFF QB Josh Allen did spread the ball around nicely to 9different receivers which gave the KC DEF headaches. Allen was also sacked 3x. L4 DAL vs BUFF, DAL 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS. DAL 30-44-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. DAL 28-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. DAL 17-5-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG <8pts. DAL 11-4-1 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG <8pts. BUFF 26-39 ATS @HOME in DEC. BUFF 39-35 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BUFF 1-9-2 ATS as a FAV vs opp off DD SU win. Both of these teams are coming off nice wins. DAL was more dominating and BUFF just lucky. DAL is playing for the #1 seed in the NFC, while BUFF is just looking to stay alive and get in. DAL #4 TOT OFF w/#11 RUSH OFF & #2 PASS OFF vs BUFF #14 TOT DEF w/#19 RUSH DEF & # 11 PASS DEF. BUFF is overrated and DAL is motivated. BUFF hasn’t looked that impressive @HOME vs good teams except vs MIA. They are looking good and are tough on both sides of the ball. The BUFF secondary can be beat as long as the DAL receivers do not drop passes. I like DAL here.

THE PICK: DAL+2 ½

Sunday December 17^th, 2023 8:20pm

Baltimore Ravens (10-3), (8-5) ATS, (5-1) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), (8-5) ATS, (3-4) HOME, (3-4) ATS                        JAGS+3 ½  

LW, BALT @HOME needed OT to beat LAR 37-31. It was a punt return for a td in OT that was the deciding factor here. LAR was playing BALT toe-to-toe and was letting up. I liked BALT-7 because BALT is playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and LAR is just playing to stay alive. Also, LAR hadn’t really beaten anyone this season. It was a hard fought game with both DEFs giving up a lot of ground. LW, JAGS played a sloppy game @CLEV. They had their chances but also JAGS HC Doug Pederson dug the JAGS a bigger hole at the end of the game. They should have been down 31-28 instead of 31-27. But with a missed 2pt conversion, JAGS needed a td instead of a fg to prolong the game. A bad decision all around. JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence looked pretty good for a guy with a high ankle sprain. But he threw 3INTS which gave CLEV more time to possess the ball. JAGS played catchup the whole game to no avail. L9 BALT vs JAGS, BALT 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS. BALT 9-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. BALT 8-10 ATS as a FAV on SNF. BALT 21-17-1 ATS L39 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 9-11 ATS in 1^st of NN RGs. BALT 41-34 ATS as a FAV in DEC. BALT 33-29 ATS AWAY in DEC. BALT 9-14 ATS L23 vs AFC SOUTH. BALT 2-4-1 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. BALT 0-10 ATS L10 as a FAV <4pts in 1^st of BB RGs. JAGS 21-22 ATS L43 as a HOME DOG. JAGS 4-0 ATS on SNF off non-div opp. JAGS 3-0 ATS as a HOME DOG on SNF. JAGS 31-31 ATS @HOME in DEC. JAGS 36-42 ATS as a DOG in DEC. JAGS 14-6 ATS L20 vs NFC NORTH. JAGS 8-2 ATS L10 as a DOG 10<pts vs AFC NORTH. These two teams played each other in wk12 last season @JAGS with the JAGS winning the game 28-27. In that game BALT was a FAV-4 and BALT had a 27-20 lead with 2:02 to go. But JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence led a 10play drive that culminated with a td pass and a successful 2pt conversion that made the score JAGS 28-27. BALT ran two plays after the kickoff but BALT K Justin Tucker came up short on a 67yard fg attempt. I think BALT HC John Harbaugh should remind the rest of the team of that game. BALT is still fighting for the #1 seed in the AFC and JAGS pretty much have the AFC SOUTH locked up, unless they go into a total nose dive. BALT #2 TOT DEF w/ #4 PASS DEF & #12 RUSH DEF. This is almost like the CLEV DEF. For JAGS BALT OFF is almost like the CLEV OFF except with BALT, QB Lamar Jackson is a lot more mobile than CLEV QB Joe Flacco. Lay the points here w/BALT because the revenge factor is at work.  

THE PICK: BALT-3 ½

Monday December 18^th, 2023 8:15pm

Philadelphia Eagles (10-3), (7-5-1) ATS, (5-2) AWAY, (5-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (6-7), (6-7) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (3-3) ATS         SEA+3 ½  

LW, there was just a little too much of SF RB Christian McCaffrey for SEA to handle @SF. Add to the equation that SF QB Brock Purdy had his way with the SEA secondary and SF should have scored more points. SEA QB Geno Smith was out for this game and Drew Lock was playing. But he threw 2INTS in the 2^nd half that stopped SEA from making any sort of comeback. SF won 28-16. On SNF, PHILLY was manhandled @DAL, 33-13. DAL had their way with PHILLY on both sides of the ball. It wasn’t as close as the final score suggests. PHILLY had a strip sack of DAL QB Dak Prescott that was returned for a td and that was the only td that PHILLY would score all night. PHILLY needs to have a better game plan against these better teams. PHILLY needs to learn from these two games and move forward. L9 PHILLY vs SEA, SEA 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS. PHILLY 9-3 ATS AWAY on MNF. PHILLY 5-4 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. PHILLY 16-21 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 10-10 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. PHILLY 42-38 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 28-42 ATS AWAY in DEC. PHILLY 9-15 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 7-18 ATS L25 vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 4-8 ATS L12 AWAY vs NFC WEST. PHILLY 5-10 ATS after DAL. PHILLY 5-14 ATS as a noin-div ROAD FAV 3>pts. PHILLY 7-2 ATS off BB SU losses (last vs div). SEA 8-5 ATS L13 as a HOME DOG. SEA 15-6 ATS on MNF. SEA 9-1 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. SEA 46-27 ATS @HOME in DEC. SEA 48-26 ATS as a DOG in DEC. SEA 17-9-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 14-6 ATS off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. SEA 12-6 ATS after SF. SEA 11-2 ATS vs .500> nn-div conf opp. SEA 0-7 ATS after div ROAD gm. PHILLY is fighting for their lives right now and can’t afford any more regular season losses. The last two games were devastating for PHILLY as they were outscored 75-32. It opened up deficiencies in their OFF & DEF that need to be corrected if they want to return to the SuperBowl and win. PHILLY is desperate for a win here. SEA is just hanging on. After starting out 6-3, they are now 6-7 and on the outside looking in at the NFC playoffs. LAR has the advantage over SEA and SEA showed their frustrations last week @SF. SEA is a couple of players here and there from becoming really good but QB Geno Smith needs to be more consistent. Both teams are coming off losses. However, SEA is on a four game losing streak, while PHILLY is on a two game losing streak. Geno Smith is still questionable for this game so Drew Lock may be starting. Either way, PHILLY needs to make the SEA QB very uncomfortable. Right now, PHILLY is the better team and needs to play like one. Lay the points here as PHILLY is desperate for a good showing and able to keep the #1 seed.

THE PICK: PHILLY-3 ½