2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 7 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYE: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans

Thursday October 19^th, 2023 8:15pm

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (3-3), (2-3-1) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS           JAGS+2

LW, JAGS @HOME took it to INDY, 37-20. The score wasn’t even that close and JAGS had help with INDY’s QB Gardner Minshew making a return and pressing too hard. Minshew had 3INTS & 1lost fumb which JAGS turned into 17pts. JAGS are beating teams they need to beat. NO was dud last week @HOU. NO had their chances but with 2missed fgs and a fumb after a HOU INT, NO was playing catchup all game to no avail. In the end HOU looked better. I liked NO but again they disappointed. The game was not out of reach as HOU won 20-13. L4 JAGS vs NO, NO 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. JAGS 2-3 ATS AWAY on TNF. JAGS 9-15 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. JAGS 32-37 ATS as a DOG in OCT. JAGS 28-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 4-9 ATS off DD SU win vs .500> opp. JAGS 0-10 ATS L10 vs NFC SOUTH. NO 5-10-2 ATS on TNF. NO 0-7-2 ATS on TNF vs non-div opp. NO 34-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. NO 39-37 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NO 39-36-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. NO 11-18-1 ATS L30 @HOME vs AFC. NO 15-9-1 ATS after a SU loss AWAY & playing @HOME. NO 5-13 ATS as a HOME FAV vs AFC. NO 15-2 ATS as a non div HOME FAV <8pts off SU loss. This game could be a low scoring or a shootout by both. JAGS are #3 RUSH DEF while NO is #9 RUSH DEF. One of these teams will crack. JAGS Trevor Lawrence says he is playing this week even though he left the game vs INDY with a knee injury. If he doesn’t play, I like NO. This is a game of closely talented teams and it may come down to the end on who has the ball last. I’m guessing JAGS. JAGS have better coaching as well. It’s almost a PICK’EM game but I like JAGS here by a fg. 

JAGS QB Trevor Lawrence is going through a pregame work out to see how his knee is. If he plays, I like JAGS+2. If Lawrence does not play, I like NO-2. 

THE PICK: JAGS+2

Sunday October 22^nd, 2023 1:00pm

Las Vegas Raiders (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Chicago Bears (1-5), (2-4) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (1-2) ATS                                    CHI+3

LW, LV was lucky to get by a bad NE team. I liked NE+3 and with the score LV 19-17, wouldn’t you know it, NE QB Mac Jones gets tackled in the endzone for a safety. Now the score is LV 21-17 and LV gets the ball back, game over. LV QB Jimmy Garoppolo got knocked out with a back injury and Brian Hoyer did what he had to do from self destructing. But he held on for the win. LW, I liked CHI+3 @HOME vs MINN because CHI QB Justin Fields looked like he might have turned the corner and started moving upwards as the QB he was projected. But he throws an INT that later is turned into a td by MINN and he gets knocked out with a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. Rookie Tyson Bagent comes in, gives up a strip sack for a td and blows any chance of winning for CHI. A calamity of errors. L5 LV vs CHI, LV 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS. LV 2-12-1 ATS L15 as a ROAD FAV. LV 11-13 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. LV 34-28 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 22-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LV 0-11 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV off BB SU wins. CHI 17-19 ATS L36 as a HOME DOG. CHI 7-11-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CHI 24-38-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. CHI 38-29-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 9-4 ATS after MINN. Both starting QBs are probably out for this game and the backups will be in. Hoyer has a lot more experience than Bagent but Hoyer is a backup because he is not that good. LV has a habit of beating bad teams and losing to good teams. CHI is a bad team and it seems that they can’t get things going. However, they are pretty good vs the run. CHI #8 RUSH DEF. This may put a lot of pressure on Hoyer. LV is not a great team and they have their problems. This game could be a shootout. LV DE Maxx Crosby was the one who sacked Jones in the endzone last week and I’m sure he has his sights on the rookie CHI QB. LV has a problem scoring points and this game may be a low scoring affair with turnovers on both sides. Take the HOME TEAM w/the points.  

THE PICK: CHI+3 

Cleveland Browns (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (0-1) AWAY, (0-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                          INDY+2 ½  

LW, CLEV won because they knocked out two weapons for SF, RB McCaffrey & WR Samuel. Without them, SF was a sitting duck. CLEV did what they needed to do with the help of 2missed fgs by SF and CLEV won 19-17. INDY was thumped by JAGS @JAGS 37-20. It wasn’t even that close. INDY QB Gardner Minshew’s return to Jacksonville was a dud and he had a terrible game. L7 CLEV vs INDY, CLEV 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS. CLEV 4-9-1 ATS L14 as a ROAD FAV. CLEV 13-14-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. CLEV 18-27-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEV 13-11-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CLEV 5-18-2 ATS L25 after an SU DOG win. CLEV 5-9-1 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. INDY 8-11 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. INDY 12-6-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. INDY 31-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 29-32-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. INDY 27-13-1 ATS as a DOG >1pt off an SU loss. INDY 2-6 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs conf opp. INDY 19-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 13-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU win. It looks like INDY QB Anthony Richardson will be out for an extended time and possibly the rest of the season with his injured shoulder. Until then, Minshew will be the QB. He is hot and cold and so goes INDY. Right now, CLEV QB Deshaun Watson is questionable with his shoulder but PJ Walker is capable of leading the team. Although he almost threw an INT vs SF that would have iced the game for SF. CLEV is a better team here and has a better run game. Upfront, the CLEV DEF is very good. CLEV #4 RUSH DEF. This means that it will be all on Minshew’s shoulders and that is not a situation he can deal with. I like CLEV here.

THE PICK: CLEV-2 ½  

Buffalo Bills (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                              NE+8 ½  

LW on SNF, BUFF barely beat NYG 14-9. NYG had their chances to win but didn’t get it done. Where is LB Vonn Miller? He has been non-existent and getting a BIG paycheck. BUFF was a BIG FAV -14 and they looked horrible. Their DEF doesn’t look that intimidating with all the injuries and DC Leslie Frazier not there. LW, I liked NE+3 and it looked like a good pick. That was until with about 1:50 left in the game and LV up 19-17, NE QB Mac Jones was sacked in the endzone for a safety. Now the score was LV 21-17 and that’s all she wrote. L16 BUFF @NE, BUFF 5-11 SU but 9-6-1 ATS. BUFF 14-17-1 ATS L32 as a ROAD FAV. BUFF 28-39-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF 32-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BUFF 23-25 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. BUFF 20-15 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts. BUFF 10-1-1 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs  <.500 opp. NE 5-7 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. NE 26-19 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 38-33-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 24-21 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NE 1-8 ATS L9 as a DOG vs .500> opp. NE has a lot of players out due to injury. NE QB Mac Jones may not be the long term solution. They have not looked good and Jones has to learn to get rid of the football. Will the real BUFFALO BILLS please stand up? BUFF has not looked good and could barely beat a NYG team that had time management problems, a backup QB & a decimated O-LINE. The only impressive game so far this season for BUFF was the 48-20 beating @HOME of MIA, other then that, there is nothing to brag about. Call me crazy but, I think NE @HOME keeps this game close. NE is banged up and right now BUFF QB Josh Allen is questionable with a sore shoulder. He is very overrated. Yeah, I said it. He misses passes and would rather run with the ball then hit the open man. If he doesn’t play, Kyle Allen would be the QB. NE needs to get their run game going. BUFF is weak at defending the run so NE should use it to take pressure off of Jones. BUFF #25 RUSH DEF. There could be an upset in NE. Take NE+8 ½ here.

THE PICK: NE+8 ½

Washington Commanders (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ New York Giants (1-5), (1-5) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-2) ATS             NYG+2

On SNF, NYG had a chance to score a td at the end of the 1^st half and at the end of the game which would have certainly given them the win @BUFF. However, mismanagement of time and plays played into both and NYG fell 14-9. But who knew that NYG with a backup QB & no O-LINE would play BUFF so tough? The spread was NYG+14 and you would have thought BUFF was a crap team vs NYG. The NYG played tough and they showed it. WASH played tough @ATL and created enough turnovers to secure a 24-16 win. But WASH has its own problems with inconsistency. L16 WASH @NYG, WASH 5-10-1 ATS & 8-8 ATS. L25 WASH vs NYG, DOG 16-9 ATS. WASH 7-4 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 8-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. WASH 24-22 ATS as a FAV in OCT. WASH 31-38 ATS AWAY in OCT. WASH 23-22 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. WASH 3-7 ATS before PHILLY. WASH 15-5 ATS off SU DOG win. WASH 0-10 ATS off SU win vs .250< conf opp. NYG 15-22 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. NYG 6-9 ATS in 1^st of NBB HGs. NYG 27-20 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. NYG 30-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 36-23 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 1-6 ATS after scoring 10<pts vs div opp. NYG 3-11 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 1-10 ATS @HOME vs opp off SU DOG win. NYG 6-20 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. Believe it or not but NYG are better with Tyrod Taylor at QB than Daniel Jones, why? Taylor does not turn the ball over as much as Jones and gives the NYG a better chance to win. Also, he has had experience playing in different OFF systems and can adapt very well. He just needs a little more playing time to perfect his timing. He may get the chance this weekend as Jones is still questionable with a neck injury. WASH has played well considering who they have beaten and who they have lost to. NYG are desperate for a win but if Jones is starting at QB, I like WASH. If Taylor is starting at QB for NYG, I like NYG. It’s that simple. Plus, NYG RB Saquon Barkley is motivated to get a new deal so, he will be off and running when he sees daylight. WASH #23 RUSH DEF vs Barkley. Look for Barkley to have over 100yds rushing vs WASH.

THE PICK: NYG+2

Atlanta Falcons (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS                     ATL+2 ½

LW, TB was beaten @HOME by a DET team that came ready to play. TB could not get their run game going and ultimately were beaten 20-6. The TB secondary was picked apart by the DET OFF and TB could not stop them. TB did stop the run but in the air was a different story. LW, ATL dug themselves a hole @HOME vs WASH and played catchup the whole game. ATL QB Desmond Ridder threw 3INTS that didn’t help and WASH won 24-16. L16 ATL @TB, ATL 8-8 SU & 7-8-1 ATS. L25 ATL vs TB, FAV 14-10-1 ATS. L24 ATL vs TB, HOME 13-10-1 ATS. ATL 14-9 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. ATL 32-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 24-15 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. ATL 38-35 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 7-13 ATS AWAY vs opp off DD SU loss. ATL 5-11 ATS as a DOG off SU FAV loss. TB 8-12-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. TB 20-37-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. TB 20-33-4 ATS @HOME in OCT. TB 19-25 ATS vs NFC SOUTH in OCT. TB 1-9-2 ATS before TNF. TB 7-1 ATS L8 @HOME off DD SU loss vs .500<opp. TB 1-6 ATS L7 as a HOME FAV 3<pts. TB has a defensive minded HC in Todd Bowles and he knows how to confuse a young QB. Plus, the DEF for TB is tough on the run. ATL was able to run the ball LW vs WASH but TB is much better vs the run. TB #7 RUSH DEF. This means that it will be all on Ridder’s shoulders to get the job done. But, he is surrounded by some young guys as well and they too are going through growing pains. Both teams are coming off a loss but TB on a bounceback @HOME looks good here. Look for TB QB Baker Mayfield to have a good game.

THE PICK: TB-2 ½

Detroit Lions (5-1), (5-1) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                                  DET+3

DET is continuing where they left off in 2022. They took care of TB @TB, 20-6. DET could have scored more but they got a comfortable win. However, it cost DET RB David Montgomery a rib injury and right now he is expected to miss some games. That is a big loss. The depth chart behind Montgomery is weak at best. LW, BALT had a nice win in London vs TENN but in reality TENN is going nowhere so it had to be a win off their loss @PITT. BALT needs t get  their run game going more so that QB Lamar Jackson can focus more on his passes. L5 DET vs BALT, DET 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS. DET 10-13-1 ATS 1NL in 2^nd of BB RGs. DET 36-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 40-36 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 13-0 ATS L13 off DD ATS win. BALT 30-39-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 24-32-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BALT 15-18-1 ATS L34 vs NFC. BALT 12-30-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 6-9 ATS vs non div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 10-16 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. For DET, 40yds rushing will not cut it vs BALT. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs is coming back from an injury but he will be rusty. The rest of the RBs on the depth chart for DET can’t do what Montgomery can and that means that DET Jarod Goff will have to be throwing a lot. This game has the capacity to be a shootout because DET & BALT are very good vs the run. DET #1 RUSH DEF & BALT #10 RUSH DEF. Right now, DET is a good team and BALT is still finding themselves with QB Lamar Jackson back from injury from last season. Jackson needs to lead this team to victories. BALT will have a tougher time running the ball vs DET than they did vs TENN. This game has the makings of a shootout with whomever has the ball last, will win. Jackson has to get the ball to his playmakers and let them do their thing. Goff will be throwing a lot and that may mean turnovers. I like BALT here as it should be a good game but if there is a fg that is needed the usually reliable Justin Tucker will be there.

THE PICK: BALT-3 

Sunday October 22^nd, 2023 4:00pm

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Los Angeles Rams (3-3), (4-2) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (2-1) ATS                         PITT+3

PITT is coming off their bye. Before that they had a nice comeback win @HOME vs BALT. After being down 10-3, they shored up their DEF and made some plays that got them in position to win. PITT QB Kenny Pickett threw a nice pass to WR George Pickens and he scooted into the endzone for the td. PITT added a fg for good measure and won 17-10. LW, LAR won the game but RB Kyrien Williams who rushed for 158yds, 1td on 20 carries injured his ankle and will definitely be out of this game. Then the backup, RB Ronnie Rivers injured his knee and he will be out multiple weeks. Behind Rivers in the depth chart is really no one. L4 PITT vs LAR, PITT 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. PITT 8-8 ATS since 2007 off their bye. PITT 30-13-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 36-27 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 33-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAR 32-21 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAR 30-29 ATS L59 as a HOME FAV. LAR 7-5 ATS after ARZ. PITT comes in well rested and feeling good about their victory vs BALT. LAR doesn’t have an RB and that spells disaster for LAR QB Matthew Stafford. He needs the security of a RB that he can rely on to shoulder the load. I like PITT here because their DEF is rested and they will look to tee off on Stafford. PITT QB Kenny Pickett just needs to take what the LAR DEF gives him and not rush things like he did vs BALT. Take PITT+3 here.  

THE PICK: PITT+3

Arizona Cardinals (1-5), (3-3) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2), (3-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS                             ARZ+8

LW, ARZ was @LAR and it was ARZ+6 ½ . I started out thinking that ARZ had a legitimate chance in this one but went with LAR. What troubled me was the big spread but I made the right choice with LAR. Give ARZ QB Joshua Dobbs a lot of credit here. He is surrounded by a team with not that much talent. LW, SEA QB Geno Smith was his worst enemy. SEA should have won @CINNCY and they had their chances but Smith lost the game for SEA on his own, 17-13. L16 ARZ @ SEA, ARZ 8-8 SU & 9-7 ATS. L16 ARZ vs SEA, ARZ 10-14-2 ATS. L19 ARZ vs SEA, ROAD 15-3-1 ATS. ARZ 9-9 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. ARZ 24-36 ATS AWAY in OCT. ARZ 39-45 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 21-26 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. ARZ 3-5 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts. ARZ 9-5 ATS after LAR. ARZ 10-1 ATS as a DOG <9pts after scoring 10<pts vs opp off SU loss. ARZ 18-4 ATS off BB SUATS losses. ARZ 7-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB div RGs. SEA 12-8 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. SEA 22-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 24-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 21-30 ATS vs NFC WEST in OCT. SEA 16-21 ATS as a HOME FAV 7>pts. SEA 3-11 ATS as a HOME FAV <9pts vs .500< opp. SEA 16-7-1 ATS after an SU loss AWAY & coming HOME. SEA 11-7 ATS @HOME vs <.500 div opp. SEA 3-8 ATS after a non-conf ROAD gm. SEA 14-3 ATS vs .400< opp w/rev off BB SU losses. Both of these teams are coming off losses. Even though Geno has improved since his days as a backup, at times, he still makes the same mistakes. He hasn’t learned to get rid of the ball when there is nothing going on. Also, the SEA DEF disappears at times when they need a big play. The game vs CINNCY was winnable. If you looked at the stats for the game without the INTS from Geno, you would have thought SEA whooped CINNCY. SEA should have won but didn’t. ARZ is a feisty bunch and needs more from whoever is the RB so that Dobbs doesn’t have to everything. ARZ has lost 3 in a row to SEA & 3 in a row, but I feel that SEA may be taking ARZ lightly. I like ARZ here with the points because I feel if SEA pulls out the win, it will not be by more than 7pts. This will be a one score game. Of course, if turnovers happen for both teams than anything can happen. But I like ARZ +8. ARZ has to go back to what they did vs DAL.

THE PICK: ARZ+8

Green Bay Packers (2-3), (1-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Denver Broncos (1-5), (0-6) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                             DEN+1

GB is coming off a bye. GB 11-4-1 ATS since 2007 after their bye. But before their bye, they had a chance to beat LV @ LV on MNF but couldn’t get the job done. No RB Aaron Jones and that means a lot of pressure on GB QB Jordan Love. Also, the DEF for GB can’t stop anyone. GB #28 RUSH DEF. DEN is not that much better. On TNF @KC, they managed only 1td in a 19-8 loss. Before that, they lost 31-21 @HOME to NYJ. DEN’s only win was a comeback win @CHI 31-28. DEN is very bad. L4 GB vs DEN, GB 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. GB 12-22-1 ATS L34 as a ROAD FAV. GB 37-36-3 ATS as a FAV in OCT. GB 36-28-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. GB 21-25-2 ATS L47 vs AFC. GB 4-6 ATS before MINN. GB 16-7-1 ATS w/rest. GB 2-12-1 ATS as a non div ROAD FAV 3<pts. DEN 19-9 ATS L28 as a HOME DOG. DEN 12-7-2 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. DEN 35-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 28-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 7-10 ATS after KC. DEN 18-2 ATS w/rest of an SU loss. DEN 19-2 ATS w/rest off an SUATS loss. DEN 15-1 ATS as a HOME DOG off div gm. DEN 12-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG off DIV gm. DEN 7-1 ATS @HOME off DD ATS loss. This game is a toss up at best with whoever possessing the ball at the end of the game will win. I see it as a multi turnover game for both and both HCs scratching their heads. DEN DEF has given up 234yds rushing vs NYJ & 96yds rushing vs KC. GB RB AJ Dillon is not Aaron Jones and he can only do so much. But with Jones in there, Love doesn’t have as much pressure on him and he can take what the DEF gives him. DEN #32 TOT DEF & #32 RUSH DEF. DEN QB Russell Wilson has been a disaster in DEN but he needs a game that he can show everyone that he is still a good QB. At this point he is not an elite QB, he is just getting paid like one. This game should go back and forth but I like the GB here because GB should just run all day on DEN.  

THE PICK: GB-1

Los Angeles Chargers (2-3), (2-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS            LAC+5 ½

On MNF, LAC had their chances @HOME vs DAL but, DAL was on a mission to win and the DAL DEF played better than expected and didn’t let down. LAC could have won the game but DAL was desperate and it wasn’t going to happen for LAC. On TNF, KC did what they had to do and won 19-8. The spread was -10 ½ and I liked KC because DEN can’t really do too much right which they displayed for the whole world to see. KC did just enough and kicked a fg late to make sure KC won and covered. L16 LAC @KC, LAC 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS. L32 LAC vs KC, LAC 14-18 SU & 15-17 ATS. L32 LAC vs KC, DOG 21-11 ATS. L26 LAC vs KC, DOG 16-10 ATS. L20 LAC vs KC, LAC 5-15 SU 7 9-11 ATS. LAC 31-37-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAC 19-28-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAC 29-27 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. LAC 2-7 ATS as a div DOG <6pts vs opp off DD Su win. LAC 3-14 ATS vs opp w/rest. KC 7-13 ATS in 2^nd of BB Hgs. KC 2-18 ATS as a FAV in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 1-16 ATS as a FAV <9pts in 2^nd of BB HGs. KC 37-31 ATS @HOME  in OCT. KC 28-18 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 27-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 7-17 ATS as a div HOME FAV vs .<500 opp. KC 13-3 ATS as a FAV >3pts off div gm vs opp off SU loss. KC 6-0 ATS L6 off div ATS win vs .500< opp. KC 1-5 ATS L6 after TNF HOME gm. LAC is not a team to be taken lightly. The have many weapons on OFF and DEF and KC’s OFF hasn’t been playing lights out. KC’s only blowout win was @HOME vs CHI. Other than that each game has been in range. The KC pass DEF has certainly gotten better as they haven’t given up much in the way of points. KC #6 PASS DEF. This game will be a battle to the end with a fg deciding it at the end of the game. LAC has a shot here and the spread is too big to ignore. I like LAC with points.

THE PICK: LAC+5 ½ 

Sunday October 22^nd, 2023 8:20pm

Miami Dolphins (5-1), (5-1) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-1), (3-3) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (0-2) ATS                           MIA+2

LW, MIA had a blowout win @HOME vs CAR. I say a BIG SO WHAT because they were expected to do that and they did. CAR may not win a game all season so MIA better handle them like that, 42-21.  PHILLY had a bad game @NYJ because the DEF for NYJ was pumped. There was also some suspect play calling by PHILLY that contributed to the PHILLY loss, 20-14. I liked NYJ+7 and they delivered. But in a way that is good for PHILLY because it makes them look at things a lot closer and refine things and gets them ready for this game. L4 MIA vs PHILLY, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. MIA 5-2-1 ATS as a DOG on SNF. MIA 34-33 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MIA 36-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. MIA 0-8 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins vs .700> opp. MIA 8-7 ATS after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 8-8-1 ATS @HOME on SNF. PHILLY 13-12-1 ATS as a FAV on SNF. PHILLY 9-8 ATS on SNF off an SU loss. PHILLY 36-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. PHILLY 45-40 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 25-16 ATS L41 vs AFC. PHILLY 16-8 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 1-7 ATS off DD ATS loss. MIA has an explosive OFF, no doubt. MIA #1 TOT OFF. But PHILLY has a pretty good DEF. PHILLY #9 TOT DEF. Also, PHILLY has the TUSH PUSH which they have seemed to perfect and other teams cannot stop. PHILLY is on a bounceback here and at times the MIA DEF seems to be non-existent. This should be a good game as two former Alabama QBs go head to head. I like PHILLY to come out on top by at least a fg.

THE PICK: PHILLY-2 

Monday October 23^rd, 2023 8:15pm

San Francisco 49ers (5-1), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (0-3) HOME, (0-3) ATS                       MINN+7

LW, MINN barely beat CHI @CHI. CHI had many miscues and QB Justin Fields was knocked out. Then QB Tyson Bagent was strip sacked for a td for MINN. Hence a MINN 19-13 win. MINN needed miscues to win here. LW, SF RB Christian McCaffrey & WR Deebo Samuel were knocked out of the game @CLEV. There went most of the OFF for SF. SF lost 19-17. SF was leading in this game 10-0 when the roof fell in. The momentum shifted for SF and CLEV won. SF had 2 missed fgs that could have been the difference in the game. L7 SF vs MINN, SF 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS, HOME 5-2 ATS. SF 7-0 ATS L7 AWAY on MNF. SF 17-5 ATS as a RF on MNF. SF 11-2 ATS on MNF vs .333> opp. SF 13-12 ATS L25 as a ROAD FAV. SF 13-14 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. SF 27-43 ATS AWAY in OCT. SF 47-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 15-20-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB non-div gms. SF 10-12-1 ATS Off SU FAV loss. SF 10-22 ATS as a FAV vs <.500 opp. SF 11-0 ATS L11 off SU ROAD FAV loss vs opp off SU win. MINN 0-4 ATS on MNF as a DOG. MINN 7-5 ATS L12 as a HOME DOG. MINN 19-29 ATS as a DOG in OCT. MINN 27-29-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. MINN 9-6 ATS after CHI. MINN 4-12 ATS vs .666> conf opp. MINN is a terrible team and they are going nowhere this season. There have even been rumors that MINN QB Kirk Cousins may be traded. The two wins that MINN has this season are against teams that have 1 win combined CAR-0 & CHI-1. Their losses were to TB, @PHILLY, LAC & KC. SF, when healthy is right up there with PHILLY & KC. MINN has no shot vs a healthy SF team which is also coming off a loss on a bounceback. I would take SF QB Brock Purdy over MINNQB Cousins any day because Purdy knows when to throw the ball away. Cousins hasn’t learned when the pocket is collapsing or doesn’t throw the ball away when there is nothing open.

If RB Christian McCaffrey & WR Deebo Samuel play, then I like SF laying the points. If both do not play, I like MINN. If only McCaffrey plays, I like SF. Both are questionable for this game.

THE PICK: SF-7