2023 NFL SEASON WEEK 8
2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 8 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
Thursday October 26th, 2023 8:15pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-0) AWAY, (2-0) ATS @ Buffalo Bills (4-3), (3-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (2-2) ATS TB+8 ½
LW, BUFF looked bad @NE. They were down 22-10, made a comeback to take the lead 25-22 but, let NE drove all the way down the field to score a td with :12 left on the clock and NE ended up winning 29-25. I liked NE+8 ½ because NE was desperate. Plus, BUFF has reverted back to a team that looks in disarray. They are making a lot of mistakes. Right now, no one is scared of BUFF. They barely beat a NYG team 14-9, before this game. BUFF has no running game as they rushed for 81yds on 24 carries. That is ok but will not get it done vs better teams. LW, TB had their chances @HOME vs ATL. Is ATL so good that TB loses @HOME? TB gave up an uncharacteristic 156yds rushing & 1td on 38 carries. TB QB Baker Mayfield needs to take what the DEF gives him and not try to make something out of nothing. That is where he gets into trouble. Also, the running game for TB needs to play better so that Mayfield doesn’t feel like he has to win the game himself. L5 TB vs BUFF, TB 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. TB 2-11-1 ATS on TNF. TB 2-6 ATS on TNF off an SU loss. TB 1-7 ATS vs .500> opp on TNF. T 0-6 ATS on TNF vs non-div opp. TB 17-10 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. TB 12-4 ATS in 1st of BB RGs vs <.600 opp. TB 21-39-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. TB 25-39-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TB 27-28-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 5-13-1 ATS as a DOG 7>pts. TB 7-10-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. TB 9-4-2 ATS vs non conf opp off SU FAV loss. TB 7-5-1 ATS after ATL. TB 4-6-1 ATS as a non-div DOG >1pt off SU FAV loss. TB 6-1 ATS L7 off SU conf FAV loss. BUFF 7-6 ATS on TNF. BUFF 4-3 ATS as a FAV on TNF. BUFF 31-33-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. BUFF 28-40-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BUFF doesn’t have the run game that ATL has. BUFF #14 RUSH OFF vs TB #10 RUSH DEF. This is only because BUFF QB Josh Allen takes off so much. TB needs a spotter on Allen so he doesn’t take off and has to throw the ball. Allen already has 7INTS on the season, so it’s safe to say that he will throw some more INTS. However, after the 1st game where he threw 3INTS in the loss @NYJ, he only has 4INTS in the last 6games. TB has to put pressure on Allen as they are on a double bounceback week after two losses @HOME. They weren’t beating DET but had many chances last week vs ATL. BUFF looks like a completely different team than the one that blew out MIA 48-20 in wk 4. I think that BUFF finds a way to win because they too are on a bounceback but, TB keeps it close. I would be very surprised if TB gets blown out. TB QB Baker Mayfield must make better choices and show everyone that he still has what it takes to lead a team. Maybe he can bring some of that magic that he showed vs LAR on TNF last season. I like TB here to keep it close.
THE PICK: TB+8 ½
Sunday October 29th, 2023 1:00pm
Los Angeles Rams (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Dallas Cowboys (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-0) HOME, (2-0) ATS LAR+6 ½
DAL is coming off a bye and before that they barely won @LAC on MNF, 20-17. DAL almost blew this game. But it was a battle that went down to the wire with DAL getting the win. Needless to say, the run game needs to get better for DAL. LAR was beaten at HOME by PITT. LAR was leading this game 17-10 when PITT scored 2tds and then won a game on a controversial spot of the ball on 4th & 1. PITT kept possession of the ball and the game was over. Needless to say, LAR may or may not have scored a td if they got the ball back. But, it is what it is. LAR also had their chances and didn’t make the most of them. But LAR RBs Freeman & Henderson who are in there for injured RBs made the most of an opportunity by performing well and taking pressure off of LAR QB Matthew Stafford. LAR had 2 missed fgs and 1 missed extra point which could have made a difference. Stafford had 1INT that was turned into a td by PITT. So it was a sloppy game for LAR that costs them in this one. L10 LAR vs DAL, DAL 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. LAR 12-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. LAR 34-41 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LAR 32-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. LAR 0-10 ATS as a non-div DOG 5>pts w/revenge vs .500> opp. LAR 11-9-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. LAR 8-4-1 ATS AWAY vs opp w/rest. LAR 2-13 ATS w/revenge vs .500> non-div opp. DAL 11-5 ATS since 2007 wk after their bye. DAL 38-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 48-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. This may be a tight game if both teams decide to go run heavy. DAL #18 RUSH DEF & LAR #20 RUSH DEF. This leads the door open to a ground game unless the other team makes some significant stops. Right now the edge is leaning to LAR with RBs Royce Freeman & Darrell Henderson picking up the slack for injured RBs. This could eat up significant clock and take the ball away from DAL. If LAR DT Aaron Donald gets in Dak’s face and is charging at him all game, Dak will make mistakes and that opens the door up for LAR. LAR is coming off a loss and that is a bounceback situation here. DAL has beaten up bad teams and barely beaten a mid level team. LAR right now is mid level and looking to get to .500. LAR cannot turn the ball over. I like LAR +6 ½ here.
THE PICK: LAR+6 ½
Minnesota Vikings (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (2-4), (1-5) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (0-2) ATS GB+1
On MNF, MINN showed something that they haven’t shown in a long time, resiliency. After they turned the ball over early @HOME vs SF, they forced a fumble on SF RB Christian McCaffrey and the momentum of the game turned back in MINN’s favor. MINN outplayed SF on both sides of the ball and won 22-17. Rookie WR Jordan Addison stole the show with 7 catches for 123yds & 2tds. On a play late in the 2nd qtr, he grabbed the ball right out of the hands of CB Charvarius Ward for a td. LW, GB had their chances @DEN but somehow couldn’t pull out the victory in an uphill battle after trailing 9-0. When you are playing catchup, your game plan changes and GB is not good at close games. DEN won 19-17. L16 MINN @GB, MINN 4-10-2 SU & 5-10-1 ATS. L32 MINN vs GB, HOME 19-12-1 ATS. L22 MINN vs GB, DOG 12-9 ATS 1PICK’EM. MINN 22-8 ATS L30 as a ROAD FAV. MINN 7-13 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. MINN 34-31 ATS AWAY in OCT. MINN 40-33-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MINN 22-27-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. MINN 14-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 1-8 ATS AWAY off SU DOG win. MINN 11-3-1 ATS vs div opp off SU loss. MINN 1-4 ATS off SU DOG win vs div opp. GB 3-5 ATS L8 as a HOME DOG. GB 10-12-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. GB 23-21 ATS as a DOG in OCT. GB 26-29-2 ATS @HOME in OCT. GB 18-24 ATS vs NFC NORTH in OCT. GB 0-7 ATS as a DOG <5pts vs <.500 opp. GB 18-6 ATS @HOME off non-conf gm. GB QB Jordan Love is learning but mistakes are costing him games. The GB DEF is not making stops necessary for the GB OFF to take their time. MINN #15 TOT DEF & GB #16 TOT DEF. They are pretty much the same. But MINN #15 RUSH DEF & GB #30 RUSH DEF will have MINN using the run to take pressure off of QB Kirk Cousins. Hence, there is more pressure on Love to deliver his passes. This game should come down to whoever has the ball last and can kick a fg. I like MINN coming off the momentum from MNF and getting by GB. GB has to figure out how their QB can make better choices and get the ball to his receivers down the field. MINN should win the game unless Cousins falls backwards.
THE PICK: MINN-1
Atlanta Falcons (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Tennessee Titans (2-4), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS TENN+2 ½
LW, ATL was lucky to get the win. TB had many chances but for some reason kept shooting themselves in the foot. ATL likes to run the ball and they certainly did @TB in their 16-13 win with 156yds rushing 1td on 38 touches. ATL is still leery about QB Desmond Ridder and they do not try to put him in crazy spots. The ATL DEF has kept this team in some low scoring games. Three of ATL’s four wins have been by three points or less. TENN is coming off a bye. TENN 10-6 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, TENN lost @INDY 23-16 & in London to BALT, 24-16. Just when you think TENN is turning the corner, they lose. L4 ATL vs TENN, TENN 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. ATL 8-11 ATS L19 as a ROAD FAV. ATL 10-13 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. ATL 33-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 23-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. ATL 7-9 ATS after TB. ATL 6-1 ATS L7 as a non-con FAV. ATL 12-9 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 9-4 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. ATL 3-12-1 ATS as a FAV vs .333< opp. ATL 4-1-3-1 ATS vs .333< opp. ATL 1-8 ATS L9 as a ROAD FAV 2>pts. TENN 16-10 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. TENN 37-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. TENN 35-30 ATS as a DOG in OCT. TENN 15-7 SU & 14-8 ATS L22 vs NFC SOUTH. TENN 11-2 ATS w/rest. TENN is desperate for a win or they will have dug themselves a hole. Their aspirations of a playoff spot will be limited if they lose this game. TENN RB Derrick Henry needs to get the ball here and set the tone of the game. TENN QB Ryan Tannehill is questionable for this game but it really doesn’t matter because QB Malik Willis has shown that he can do spot duty and he knows the OFF. This may be his chance to finally shine. But the team around him needs to step up and Willis needs to make good choices. ATL is a young team and for them to be a ROAD FAV shows a lot of confidence in the Line setters. They don’t have too much confidence in TENN. Both of these teams are good vs the run. ATL #8 RUSH DEF & TENN #14 RUSH DEF. ATL didn’t give up much on the ground to TB RBs last week albeit 41yds. TENN has to get their run game going and take charge of this game. TENN is on a double bounce back and has had 2weeks to prepare for this game. TENN WR DeAndre Hopkins needs to see more targets which then opens it up for others. I like TENN here as the HOME team and on a double bounceback. TENN cannot turn the ball over.
THE PICK: TENN+2 ½
New Orleans Saints (3-4), (2-4-1) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-1-1) ATS @ Indianapolis Colts (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (2-2) ATS NO+1
LW on TNF, the NO OFF didn’t show up until the 4th qtr. Down @HOME to JAGS 24-9, NO scored 2tds to make the score 24-24. JAGS got a go ahead td to make the score 31-24 but, NO dropped two passes in the endzone that would have at least tied the game. During the game, NO missed a fg & NO QB Derek Carr threw a PICK6 which changed the momentum of the game. Carr has to play better because the DEF for NO can’t stay on the field all day. He needs to take what the DEF gives him. LW, INDY was involved in a wild one @HOME vs CLEV. This game went back and forth with CLEV getting a td with :15 to play. INDY ran for 168yds & 3tds on 40 carries. INDY RBs Jonathan Taylor & Zack Moss combined for 36 carries 132yds & 1td. But, also INDY QB Gardner Minshew had 1INT & 3 lost fumbles. This led to the scoring opportunities for CLEV. L4 NO vs INDY, NO 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. NO 35-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. NO 32-20 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NO 25-11 ATS L36 as a ROAD DOG. NO 15-4 ATS AWAY after SUATS loss. NO 0-4 ATS L4 w/rest. INDY 9-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. INDY 32-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. INDY 34-33 ATS as a FAV in OCT. INDY 12-2 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. INDY 3-12-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts. INDY 21-15 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 1-5 ATS as a non-div FAV 7<pts vs opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 7-11 ATS vs non-div opp off SU FAV loss. INDY 14-7 ATS off SU loss vs non-div opp off SU loss. Look for NO RB Alvin Kamara to have a good game here which will take a lot of pressure off of Carr. INDY #21 RUSH DEF. Also, NO RB/WR Taysom Hill needs to be on the field more often. Any DEF would have to put a defender on him which takes away from someone else. Carr needs to spread the OFF more so that the DEF is left guessing. The NO DEF has to stop RB Taylor from getting started. If NO stops the INDY run, then Minshew will make mistakes and turn the ball over, it’s that simple. Just look what happened when INDY played at the JAGS a few weeks ago. JAGS DEF stopped the run cold and Minshew threw a lot which opened him up to mistakes and turnovers. Take NO here.
THE PICK: NO+1
New England Patriots (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS NE+9
LW, I loved NE @HOME +8 ½ vs BUFF. NE was desperate & due, while BUFF is overrated and looking not like a championship team but a team in disarray. Hence, NE played a great game and won 29-25. NE held BUFF RBs to 64 rushing yards and had BUFF playing catchup all game. BUFF did take the lead 25-22 late in the game but, NE Mac Jones, yes Mac Jones led a td winning drive with a td pass to TE Mike Gesicki with :12 left. BUFF couldn’t do anything after that. It was god win for NE who were desperate to get a win and maybe start turning things around. On SNF MIA was @PHILLY. MIA came to play but PHILLY was just toying with MIA. PHILLY took a 17-3 lead but let MIA come back in this game too tie at 17. PHILLY then scored 2tds & closed the door on MIA to win 31-17. L16 NE @MIA, NE 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS. L27 MIA vs NE, MIA 14-13 ATS. L24 MIA vs NE, MIA 14-10 ATS. L23 NE vs MIA, HOME 17-6 ATS. L23 MIA vs NE, FAV 13-10 ATS. NE 27018 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NE 40-24-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NE 25-21 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. NE 9-5 ATS after BUFF. NE 13-8 ATS vs opp off DD ATS loss. NE 15-7 ATS w/revenge vs .400> conf opp. NE 2-7 ATS L9 as a DOG vs .500> opp. MIA 22-27 ATS vs AFC EAST in OCT. MIA 30-29 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MIA 31-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. These two teams played each other @NE in wk 2 with MIA winning 24-17. The spread is much bigger here and MIA is coming off a loss, a bounce back situation. So far, MIA has poured on the OFF in their three games @HOME, outscoring opponents 143-57. That’s a lot of OFF. On the ROAD, MIA is a different team. A sweep in a division series doesn’t happen often but it could happen here. NE #9 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #12 PASS DEF. This game could be low scoring. We already know who MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite targets are. It’s just a matter of containing them. I think the game is closer than the spread suggests as NE plays tough DEF. Also, there is the revenge factor for NE from their loss in wk 2. MIA squeaks out a win here but doesn’t cover.
THE PICK: NE+9
New York Jets (3-3), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (1-1) ATS @ New York Giants (2-5), (2-5) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS NYG+3
NYG coming off a game @HOME vs WASH that NYG should have scored more points than 14. The DEF for NYG stopped WASH from stealing this game with a blocked fg and a pass that would have given WASH a 1st down on the 1yd line. NYG QB Tyrod Taylor did not turn the ball over and fortunately NYG held their ground in a 14-7 win. NYJ are coming off a bye. NYJ 6-10 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, NYJ shocked PHILLY with a huge upset, 20-14. I liked NYJ+7 in that game because I thought NYJ had nothing to lose and PHILLY was due for a loss. The DEF for NYJ created 4 turnovers and the PHILLY OFF was stagnated at times. But we will see what happens this week. L4 NYJ vs NYG, 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS. NYJ 2-8-1 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 31-32-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. NYJ 26-27-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NYG 16-23 ATS L39 as a HOME DOG. NYG 7-8 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. NYG 31-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. NYG 37-23 ATS as a DOG in OCT. NYG 11-6 ATS after WASH. NYG 5-7 ATS as a nn-conf DOG 6<pts. NYG 14-2-1 ATS off SU Div HOME win vs non-div opp. NYG 4-7 ATS as a non-div DOG off SU DOG win. NYG 12-7 ATS vs .333> non-conf opp. NYG 1-6 ATS L7 as a DOG 14<pts after allowing 10<pts. This is always a heated game between two teams that know each other well. They always play each other in the preseason but this game is for real. It looks like NYG QB Daniel Jones will still be out with his neck injury. Taylor gives this team a better chance to win because he is hungry and does not turn the ball over as much as Jones. I said it last week and he had 0turnovers vs WASH. That is excellent considering how close the game could have gone either way. I fell strongly that this game will be close and that a fg will decide it at the end. Unless there is an abundance of turnovers, it will be a close game. Take NYG+3 here.
THE PICK: NYG+3
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS PITT+2 ½
LW on TNF, JAGS took care of business @NO 31-24. JAGS had a nice lead 24-9 but let NO score 2tds quickly in the 4th qtr and tied the game at 24. JAGS needed a late drive td and then a couple of dropped passes in the endzone by NO to secure the win at 31-24. It seemed that the JAGS DEF was gassed in the 4th qtr while the NO OFF stepped it up after being asleep for most of the game. LW, with PITT down 17-10 @LAR, PITT stepped up their DEF and stopped LAR cold. It also hurt that LAR missed 2fgs which would have changed the game. PITT came back with 2tds and got a favorable call on a 4th & 1 rush that sealed the game for PITT. However, there were no guarantees that LAR was going to score a td anyway. PITT got away with a win even though their DEF played subpar and LAR’s 2 backup RBs rushed well. L10 JAGS vs PITT, JAGS 4-6 SU & 7-3 ATS incl JAGS @PITT, JAGS 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. JAGS 6-5 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. JAGS 7-9 ATS since 2007 before their bye. JAGS 10-14 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. JAGS 15-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. JAGS 29-30 ATS AWAY in OCT. JAGS 14-4 ATS L18 vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 23-13-2 ATS vs AFC NORTH. JAGS 5-17 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. JAGS 0-4 ATS as a non-div FAV off SU DOG win. JAGS 7-11 ATS L18 off SU DOG win. JAGS 5-16 ATS off SU DOG win vs .400> opp. JAGS 14-4 ATS as a FAV >2pts vs opp off SU DOG win. PITT 10-12 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. PITT 12-6-1 ATS L19 as a HOME DOG. PITT 42-21-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. PITT 31-13-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 5-13 ATS off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. PITT 22-7 ATS as a DOG vs >.500 opp. PITT 9-4 ATS L13 vs AFC SOUTH. PITT 13-3 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 12-3 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SU wins. PITT 3-4 ATS L7 vs opp off SU DOG win. PITT 10-1 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs >.500 opp. JAGS should be able to run and pass favorably in this game vs PITT. PITT #30 TOT DEF w/ #28 RUSH DEF & # 25 PASS DEF. JAGS have been getting better with every game. PITT is a mid level team at this point but, a win is a win. JAGS have always been competitive vs PITT even when JAGS were bad. PIIT has been inconsistent and the running game for PITT has not been there when they needed it most. PITT is not a solid team except for a few players. They were lucky last week because LAR was without some players and the missed fgs weighed heavy. JAGS are a better team and could run away with this one IF they do not turn the ball over. PITT is not as solid as NO on DEF so JAGS should have an easier time moving up and down the field on OFF. Lay the points here as JAGS roll.
THE PICK: JAGS+2 ½
Philadelphia Eagles (6-1), (4-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Washington Commanders (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS WASH+6 ½
PHILLY is coming off a nice bounceback win @HOME on SNF vs MIA. PHILLY toyed with MIA, by letting them think they had a chance. MIA did tie the score up at 17-17 in the 3rd qtr but that was all the scoring for MIA as PHILLY scored 2tds to make the final score, PHILLY 31-17. WASH is coming off a loss @NYG where they had many chances to score and win the game. But thye didn’t as NYG blocked a fg and stopped a 4th down pass from being turned into a 1st & goal. This was a sloppy game by both teams but the WASH O-LINE couldn’t stop the NYG D-LINE and the WASH DEF couldn’t stop the NYG rushing game. WASH QB Sam Howell was sacked 6x. How many times will he be sacked vs PHILLY? L16 PHILLY @WASH, PHILLY 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. L29 PHILLY vs WASH, FAV 16-13 ATS. L33 PHILLY vs WASH, ROAD 22-11 ATS. PHILLY 15-21 ATS L35 as a ROAD FAV. PHILLY 30-33 ATS AWAY in OCT. PHILLY 22-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. PHILLY 46-40 ATS as a FAV in OCT. PHILLY 10-4 ATS off SU win 13>pts vs div opp. PHILLY 3-11 ATS in 1st of BB div gms. PHILLY 7-8 ATS before DAL. PHILLY 5-8 ATS as a ROAD FAV off DD ATS win. WASH 18-19 ATS L37 as a HOME DOG. WASH 32-34 ATS @HOME in OCT. WASH 23-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in OCT. WASH 37-47 ATS as a DOG in OCT. WASH 9-15-1 ATS after NYG. WASH 13-4 ATS off SU FAV loss. WASH 5-15 ATS vs div opp off SU win. WASH 10-3 ATS w/rev vs >.500 div opp off DD SU win. WASH 3-12 ATS @HOME w/rev off div gm. WASH 14-13 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .400> opp. WASH 11-4 ATS as a HOME DOG vs .600> opp. WASH 5-14 ATS off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win. Look to see newly acquired PHILLY WR Julio Jones get more passes thrown his way. He has a lot of talent and even if a pass is not going his way, a defender needs to stay on him which will open it up for others. I said this last week vs MIA and I’m sticking to it. This is sort of a revenge game for the scare that WASH gave PHILLY @PHILLY in wk 4. I liked WASH +8 ½ in that game because WASH usually plays PHILLY tough in at least one game of the series. But right now PHILLY will definitely win this game by a td or more to show WASH who is boss. WASH is coming off a loss @NYG where they had many chances but here PHILLY is just too strong. PHILLY #1 RUSH DEF. This means that it will be all on WASH QB Sam Howell’s shoulders. Plus, PHILLY DEF just added S Kevin Byard from TENN. He’s a little aged but will add to the secondary. Do I see an INT for Byard this week? PHIILLY DEF held MIA rushing to 45yds, how many will WASH rush for? Lay the points here.
THE PICK: PHILLY-6 ½
Houston Texans (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (0-6), (0-5-1) ATS, (0-2) HOME, (0-1-1) ATS CAR+3
Both of these teams are coming off their byes. Before their bye, CAR was beaten badly @MIA, 42-21. Before that game, CAR was beaten badly @DET, 42-24. The only game so far that CAR has been remotely close was in wk 2 @HOME vs NO. In that game, CAR was also playing catchup but managed a backdoor PUSH. CAR is just not getting the job done. One aspect is the CAR run game. In 2022 CAR was #10 RUSH OFF, this year they are #24 RUSH OFF. This puts a lot of pressure on the young rookie QB, Bryce Young. RB D’Onta Foreman was in the backfield last season for CAR delivering more than 900yds to help the QB. RB Chubba Hubbard is still there but, newly signed RB Miles Sanders has been inconsistent and injured. Right now, Sanders is questionable for this game. Before their bye, HOU was a winner @HOME vs NO. HOU was lucky to get a win here as NO had 2missed fgs and a blown chance to at least tie the game late in the contest. HOU did go heavy on the run as HOU QB CJ Stroud had an average day vs a tough NO DEF. L5 HOU vs CAR, HOU 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS. HOU 5-5-1 ATS L11 as a ROAD FAV. HOU 8-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. HOU 14-20-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. HOU 15-23 ATS AWAY in OCT. HOU 7-8 ATS w/rest. HOU 3-12 ATS AWAY vs NFC. HOU 7-3-1 ATS as a ROAD FAV 3<pts. CAR 11-12-2 ATS L25 as a HOME DOG. CAR 6-9 ATS since 2007 after their bye. CAR 12-8-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CAR 40-25 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CAR 25-30 ATS @HOME in OCT. CAR 4-8 ATS w/rest vs .500> opp. CAR 5-7 ATS w/rest. CAR 7-1-1 ATS L9 vs opp w/rest. This has the #1 drafted QB in CAR Bryce Young vs #2 drafted QB in HOU CJ Stroud battling each other out. Unfortunately CAR has not really been that good while HOU has been making good strides in the improvement of the overall team, hence wins. No doubt CAR will be pumped for this game and will play competitively for at least the 1st half of the game but HOU needs to stick to their game plan and go heavy on the run. CAR #31 RUSH DEF. HOU rushed for 120 yd on 31 carries vs NO who is definitely better vs the run. HOU needs to go heavy here and drop in some asses to keep the CAR DEF guessing. I like HOU winning by a td. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: HOU-3
Sunday October 29th, 2023 4:00pm
Cleveland Browns (4-2), (3-3) ATS, (1-1) AWAY, (0-2) ATS @ Seattle Seahawks (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS CLEV+3
LW, CLEV was in a battle @INDY. It was a calamity of errors by both teams that led to a lot of scoring in a 39-38 win by CLEV. Early in the game, CLEV QB Deshaun Watson was knocked out with a shoulder injury and PJ Walker came in and led the team to a victory with a late drive that culminated with RB Kareem Hunt rushing for a td with :15 left on the clock. I liked CLEV- 2 ½ and the 2pt conversion after the td would have certainly helped but it didn’t happen. DE Myles Garrett was one-man wrecking crew with 2sacks, one a strip sack and seven solo tackles. Even with INDY QB Gardner Minshew committing 1INT & 3 lost fumbles, CLEV had to play catchup in the last few minutes. LW, SEA @HOME beat ARZ 20-10. But, this game was closer than the score projects. ARZ is a feisty team and they were a missed fg from covering the spread and also beating SEA. It was just a matter of the ball bouncing differently with a play here and a play there and all of a sudden SEA is losing this game. ARZ actually rushed for more yards than SEA, 127-115. SEA had 3turnovers but still won because ARZ just couldn’t get into the endzone. SEA got a little lucky. L4 CLEV vs SEA, CLEV 2-2 SU & 1-2-1 ATS. CLEV 8-19-1 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. CLEV 18-28-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CLEV 31-38-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CLEV 17-21-1 ATS L39 vs NFC. CLEV 8-2 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs non-div opp. CLEV 3-9 ATS after allowing 35>pts vs opp off SU DD win. SEA 11-9 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SEA 23-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. SEA 25-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SEA 13-5 ATS off div HG vs non-div opp. Both of these teams are pretty much even and with their intensity they are middle of the pack teams. But CLEV is a more rushing heavy team and they are successful at it. CLEV #2 RUSH OFF vs SEA #6 RUSH DEF. SEA has gotten better at defending the RUN but their only impressive win so far was wk 2 @DET. Their other wins were vs CAR, @NYG & vs ARZ. Not exactly top teams. CLEV will give them a battle no matter who the QB is. That’s why I like CLEV with the points here as it should go down to the wire. I don’t see a blowout by either team.
THE PICK: CLEV+3
Kansas City Chiefs (6-1), (5-2) ATS, (3-0) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Denver Broncos (2-5), (1-6) ATS, (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS DEN+8
LW, KC @HOME just toyed with LAC. The KC passing game was on fire and it seemed like TE Travis Kelce was open the whole game. He caught 12passes for 179yds & 1td. He probably could have caught more but Mahomes knows that he needs to spread the ball around, which he did to 10different receivers. The LAC DEF was no match and the DEF for KC which in past years has been suspect is now stopping opponents cold. LW, DEN @HOME barely beat GB. This game could have gone the either way but due to GB incompetence, DEN held on, 19-17. DEN found a running game but that will be short lived this week vs KC. L16 DEN vs KC, KC 16-0 SU & 10-6 ATS. KC 25-23-1 ATS L49 as a ROAD FAV. KC 29-18 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. KC 28-30 ATS as a FAV in OCT. KC 31-30-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. KC 19-7-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 8-1 ATS vs div opp w/rev off SUATS win. KC 9-0 ATS vs div opp off SU DOG win. KC 7-0 ATS L7 off div ATS win vs .500 opp. L16 DEN(H) vs KC, DE 7-9 SU & 10-6 ATS. L29 DEN vs KC, DEN 15-14 ATS. L30 DEN vs KC, ROAD 17-13 ATS. L33 DEN vs KC, DOG 20-13 ATS. DEN 20-9 ATS as a HOME DOG. 10-11 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. DEN 8-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. DEN 36-33 ATS @HOME in OCT. DEN 29-22 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DEN 22-21 ATS vs AFC WEST in OCT. DEN 14-11 ATS off SU DOG win. Don’t be fooled by DEN’s stats LW vs GB. It was GB. KC#7 TOT DEF, #6 PASS DEF & #16 RUSH DEF vs DEN #21 TOT OFF. It can look overwhelming but I don’t think KC is going to lose to DEN on Mahomes’s watch. These two teams met two weeks ago on TNF @KC with KC winning 19-8. DEN managed 1td late in the game and KC had some struggles on OFF. The game was KC-10 ½ and they covered but KC needs to have their OFF running like a well-oiled machine so that opposing teams are in catchup mode and off their game plan. DEN is a mess and I don’t see them playing close in this game unless KC starts to make mistakes. DEN is on a high because they beat GB but, it will be short lived because first, it was GB and second KC takes advantage of mistakes. Mahomes will spread the ball around again and keep the DEN DEF guessing. Lay the points here.
THE PICK: KC-8
Baltimore Ravens (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ Arizona Cardinals (1-6), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME (2-1) ATS ARZ+8 ½
LW, BALT @HOME dominated DET on both sides of the ball. BALT was up 28-0 at halftime and you could turn your sets off there. The BALT OFF was a machine racking up 503yds of total OFF and winning 38-6. LW, ARZ had their chances @SEA but when you are missing pieces of the puzzle and your O-LINE doesn’t give you much time, it is a disaster in the making. SEA should have scored more but SEA QB Geno Smith is his own enemy and ARZ was in this until late in the game. I liked ARZ+8 but, a missed fg early missed out on at least an ATS win. L4 BALT vs ARZ, BALT 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. BALT 20-16-1 ATS L37 as a ROAD FAV. BALT 33-35-1 ATS AWAY in OCT. BALT 31-39-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. BALT 16-18-1 ATS L35 vs NFC. BALT 7-14-2 ATS after allowing <10pts. BALT 12-1 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off DD SU loss. BALT 15-7 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. ARZ 15-16-1 ATS L32 as a HOME DOG. ARZ 39-46 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ARZ 38-31 ATS @HOME in OCT. ARZ 17-8 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. ARZ 15-3 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >3pts. ARZ 3-6 ATS as a DOG after scoring 10<pts. ARZ 10-0 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG >2pts vs opp off SUATS win. ARZ 18-5 ATS off BB SUATS losses. ARZ 17-4 ATS @HOME vs non-div opp off SUATS win. ARZ 21-9 ATS @HOME vs opp off SUATS win. This game has blowout written all over it. In the last four games, ARZ hasn’t been able to get out of their own way. They can’t seem to get going when they needed it most on OFF or DEF. They have played very poorly since that big win vs DAL in wk 3 and it shows. Now with ARZ TE Zach Ertz out, that is one less target for QB Joshua Dobbs. BALT #9 RUSH DEF & #2 PASS DEF is going to be tougher than last week for ARZ to get anything going. There can be no let up of BALT here by taking ARZ lightly. Lay the points here as BALT scores early and often. BALT #3 RUSH OFF vs ARZ #25 RUSH DEF.
THE PICK: BALT-8 ½
Cincinnati Bengals (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ San Francisco 49ers (5-2), (4-3) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (3-0) ATS CINNCY+3 ½
LW, SF did not look good @MINN. The turning point of that game was the fumble by RB Christian McCaffrey in the 1st qtr, then it was all MINN. Plus, the SF DEF had 0sacks of MINN QB Kirk Cousins. If you only watched this game, you would think that SF was terrible. You can’t blame their bad game on the fact that WR Deebo Samuel is out. SF QB Brock Purdy had his worst game with 2INTs. The DEF for SF looked lethargic. The final score was MINN 22-17. CINNCY is coming off a bye. CINNCY 8-8 ATS since 2007 after their bye. Before their bye, they beat SEA 17-13. CINNCY was very lucky in that game because SEA had their chances but couldn’t get it done. It came down to the end and SEA was knocking on the door but CINNCY made a stop. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow has been taking a pounding with 3 sacks in each of the last 3games. L5 CINNCY vs SF, CINNCY 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS. CINNCY 28-41 ATS AWAY in OCT. CINNCY 33-44-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CINNCY 1-6 ATS as a DOG w/rest. CINNCY 8-8-1 ATS w/rest. CINNCY 13-3 ATS AWAY vs opp off BB SU losses. CINNCY 11-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG >2pts vs opp off BB SU losses. SF 8-8 ATS since 2007 before their bye. SF 47-34-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. SF 33-37-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. SF 15-21-2 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 10-13-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. SF 15-3 ATS off SU ROAD FAV loss. CINNCY is a team that hasn’t really beaten anyone. They have beaten SEA, @ARI & vs LAR. They lost to @TENN, BAL & @CLEV. Where does SF stand on that list? SF is on a double bounceback and it looks as though QB Sam Darnold will start in place of Purdy because Purdy is in concussion protocol. Darnold doesn’t have to do much because he has a lot of talent around him. RB Christian McCaffrey will certainly want to bounce back after his sub par performance @MINN. Look for him to have a big game. WR Samuel looks like he is out again for this game. The DEF for SF has to step up after taking the night off @MINN. The SF secondary has to be careful of CINNCY WRs Ja’Marr Chase & Tyler Boyd as they are Burrow’s main targets. Burrow will give SF a good game but the D-LINE for SF has to put pressure on this guy or it will be lights out again for SF. Lay the points here as SF gets back on track. SF has a tough DEF. SF #8 TOT DEF w/#3 RUSH DEF & #16 PASS DEF. SF needs to step it up this week.
THE PICK: SF-3 ½
Sunday October 29th, 2023 8:20pm
Chicago Bears (2-5), (3-4) ATS (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-2) ATS CHI+8 ½
LW, LAC looked mighty bad @KC. Again, it looked like KC just toyed with LAC. LAC has some mighty high priced paid talent on DEF but it seems that they disappear a lot when they are needed most. The KC OFF shredded them like they weren’t even there. The LAC DEF sacked KC QB Pat Mahomes 1x while Mahomes threw for 424 yds, & 4tds. LAC did stop the KC run game but it didn’t matter. You have to guess what kind of game plan LAC HC Brandon Staley was thinking about for this game? LW, CHI @HOME took it to LV on the ground & in the air with a rookie QB starting his 1st game. CHI QB Tyson Bagent spread the ball around nicely to eight different receivers while the ground game rushed for 173yds and 2tds. This wasn’t much of a game as CHI won 30-12. It was 30-6, when LV scored a dummy td to make the final score closer. L5 CHI vs LV, CHI 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS. CHI 13-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CHI 39-29-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 33-29-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 9-7 ATS AWAY after SU DOG win. CHI 14-10 ATS AWAY vs AFC. CHI 10-17 ATS AWAY on SNF. 11-21 ATS as a DOG on SNF. LAC 2-7-2 ATS before MNF. LAC 7-9 ATS as a FAV on SNF. LAC 14-14 ATS @HOME on SNF. LAC 34-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. LAC 32-28 ATS @HOME in OCT. LAC 38-43-2 ATS as a HOME FAV vs non-div. LAC 0-5 ATS as a HOME FAV off DD SU div RAOD loss. LAC 3-12 off DD SU div ROAD loss. If CHI is able to get their run game going as they did vs LV, LAC will be on their heels. The biggest obstacle that LAC has is their HC. By the way, take away the six sacks that LB Khalil Mack had in the game vs LV and he has one sack in the five other games. He has become useless. DE Joey Bosa has three sacks in five games. Another overpaid Lineman. CHI has nothing to lose and if they play with a balanced attack with some plays on DEF they can win. CHI #5 RUSH OFF vs LAC #11 RUSH DEF. This will be the test for CHI. But LAC #32 PASS DEF is where CHI should attack. KC ripped them last week like they weren’t even there. I think LAC will squeeze out a win but not by the points that the spread suggests. CHI #5 RUSH DEF & #29 PASS DEF. I like CHI+8 ½ because they have nothing to lose and may make it interesting and might even get the upset. LAC is really not that good and showed it last week. This game could be a shootout because neither team is good vs the pass. CHI CANNOT turn the ball over.
THE PICK: CHI+8 ½
Monday October 30th, 2023 8:15pm
Las Vegas Raiders (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Detroit Lions (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS LV+8
LW, I said the fact that DET didn’t have their #1 RB was going to be a factor. But the DET DEF didn’t show up either. BALT put on a clinic and scored on their first 4possessions. It was BALT 28-0 at the half and you could turn your TV sets off there. The final score was 38-6. BALT took it easy in the 2nd half and DET still couldn’t find any answers. I said that backup DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs would not be able to get the job done and I was right. No disrespect to him but he is a #2RB not #1RB. LW, LV was slammed @CHI, 30-12. The game wasn’t even that close as QB Brian Hoyer was in for Jimmy G. Hoyer was so bad LV had to bring in Aidan O’Connell. LV QBS had 3INTS, one was a PICK6. Meanwhile, CHI rushed for 173yds & 2tds on 38 carries. L4 LV vs DET, LV 1-3 SU & 1-2-1 ATS. LV 3-8 ATS on MNF vs non-div opp. LV 14-11 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. LV 12-10 ATS in 2nd of BB RGs. LV 34-29 ATS AWAY in OCT. LV 40-35 ATS as a DOG in OCT. LV 7-5 ATS AWAY vs .400> non-conf opp. DET 8-4 ATS on MNF. DET 7-1 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. DET 5-11 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. DET 24-38 ATS @HOME in OCT. DET 19-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DET 4-5 ATS as a FAV 7>pts @HOME vs non-div. DET 13-3 ATS @HOME vs opp off DD SU loss. DET 12-5 ATS vs non-div off SU FAV loss. DET 7-0 ATS L7 after allowing 35>pts. LV HC Josh McDaniels is a terrible HC. He has no business being a HC in the NFL. The only good thing that LV owner Bruce Davis has done is install grass on the field in the home stadium of LV. Other than that, this team is mighty bad. Every time an LV HC starts winning Davis fires them. Well, McDaniels has to go. DET had a minor setback and is on a bounceback here. DET RB David Montgomery is most probably out for this game but Gibbs should be able to get going @HOME vs LV. I knew he would be rusty last week as the go to guy but this week he will get it going. The DEF for DET has to play better and DET QB Jarod Goff should also have a better game. LV is the perfect team to bounceback against. LV has beaten DEN, GB & NE. They have lost to BUFF, PITT, LAC & CHI. The LV schedule is not that tough but here is what I like about this game. DET #4 TOT OFF w/#4 PASS OFF vs LV #5 PASS DEF. It is deceiving because LV hasn’t played anyone with a top 15 PASS OFF. This is their first test. Lay the points here as DET gets the BIG bounceback win.
THE PICK: DET-8
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