2023 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 9 (ATS)

All times Eastern Standard Time

ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS

BYE: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thursday November 2^nd, 2023 8:15pm

Tennessee Titans (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (2-2) HOME (2-2) ATS                              TENN+3

LW, TENN QB Will Levis had a very nice 1^st start in the NFL, throwing 19/29 for 238yds, 4tds & 0INTS. Can he do it again? TENN @HOME with their throwback Oilers uniforms beat ATL 28-23. TENN was leading 21-9 in the 4^th qtr when it looked like ATL would get close. ATL scored a td to make it 21-16 but then TENN countered with a td to make it 28-16. ATL then got a td to make it 28-23 and ATL even got the ball back but TENN held them off for the win. LW, I didn’t think PITT would beat the JAGS. JAGS have always played PITT tough no matter what their record and JAGS are better now then they have been since 2017. PITT QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game and Mitch Trubisky played. He threw a td but also threw 2INTS. L11 TENN vs PITT, TENN 4-7 SU & 5-6 ATS. TENN 6-4 ATS as a DOG on TNF. TENN 8-2 ATS vs non-div on TNF. TENN 11-9 ATS on TNF. TENN 9-14 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. TENN 38-33 ATS AWAY in NOV. TENN 33-30 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TENN 9-17 ATS as a DOG <6pts off an SUATS win. TENN 3-13 ATS L16 vs AFC NORTH. TENN 1-8 ATS off SU non-conf HOME win. PITT 8-5 ATS as a FAV on TNF. PITT 6-3 ATS @HOME on TNF. PITT 3-4 ATS as a FAV <14pts on TNF. PITT 12-8-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. PITT 33-28 ATS @HOME in NOV. PITT 41-46-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PITT 12-1 ATS @HOME after scoring 14<pts vs <.500 opp. PITT 9-5 ATS L14 vs AFC SOUTH. PITT 3-4 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. The problem with TENN is that you never know which team is going to show up. Just when they look good and they may go on a winning streak, they lose. Just when you think they are overmatched, they win. There is almost no consistency with them. Who thought they had a chance vs CINNCY, then lose the next week vs INDY? That is what I mean. PITT lost vs JAGS and blamed it on the refs. Didn’t they get a favorable call vs LAR the previous week? You win some, you lose some. TENN #13 RUSH OFF vs PITT #27 RUSH DEF. Pickett has a rib injury but has stated that he will be playing on TNF. TENN has to stop the run like the JAGS did. Pickett hasn’t thrown an INT since the wk4 loss @HOU. Is he due for an INT? Will the rib injury hurt his throws? Pickett has learned not to turn the ball over much which keeps the PITT team in games. TENN only has 2INTS on the season but they do tackle a lot and do force fumbles. I like TENN here for RB Derrick Henry to get going. Levis needs to spread the ball out more and not be predictable, otherwise PITT will create turnovers. Levis needs to show that he belongs. PITT is on a bounceback but they are doing it with smoke and mirrors. PITT #30 TOT DEF. Take TENN and the points here unless they turn the ball over a lot. This is a big game for Will Levis because he needs to show that he is consistent. The TENN DEF needs to play big here. This game could go either way but, I like TENN with points.    

THE PICK: TENN+3  

Sunday November 5^th, 2023 9:30am

Miami Dolphins (6-2), (6-2) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS (Frankfurt, Germany)     MIA+2 ½

LW, MIA @HOME was going back and forth with NE in what I thought would be a close game. It was but, then MIA pulled away and won 31-17. MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa spread the ball nicely to 10different receivers. He will need to do that this weekend vs KC. KC was walloped by DEN @DEN 24-9. The DEF for KC wasn’t there and KC QB Pat Mahomes turned the ball over 3x which helped DEN turn back KC. Add 2 more fumbles by KC and KC had a total of 5turnovers for the day as DEN broke an 0-16 streak vs KC. The DEF for KC did get to DEN QB Russell Wilson 6x causing 1 lost fumble but Wilson was able to throw 3tds. L7 MIA vs KC, MIA 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. MIA 8-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. MIA 40-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. MIA 37-30-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MIA 5-11 ATS after NE. MIA 10-0 ATS as a DOG <10pts vs AFC WEST. KC 9-7 ATS since 2007 before their bye. KC 34-50 ATS as a FAV in NOV. KC 29-37 ATS @HOME in NOV. KC 19-18-1 ATS L38 vs AFC EAST. KC 10-5-1 ATS vs .700> opp. KC 14-8 ATS @HOME vs .666> non-div opp. KC 18-10 ATS L28 after an SU loss. KC 11-2 ATS after div gm vs .500> opp. Yes, KC is on a bounceback, division games are different and DEN was due after 16 straight losses to KC but, the KC OFF is not looking like they have in the past. KC’s only BIG win was in a wk3 blowing out CHI. Other than that, the OFF has struggled. You know MIA is going to be pumped up to get at Mahomes and show KC who is boss. But in Mahomes defense, he did have the flu last weekend @DEN and you could tell he wasn’t right. This was not revealed until game time and had I known that, I would probably have picked DEN. Anyway, MIA has a high powered OFF and the DEF for KC has gotten better but, they haven’t played an OFF like this. MIA #1 TOT OFF vs KC #4 TOT DEF. If MIA is to           win this game, they have to play shut down DEF, create some turnovers and keep the ball out of Mahomes’s hands. MIA has to get their running game going here and then drop passes past the KC secondary. It can be done, just ask DET.  MIA beats up bad teams, loses to good teams. They lost to PHILLY & BUFF BIG and beat up LAC, NE, DEN, NYG, CAR & NE again. Until they prove otherwise MIA will not take that BIG step forward. KC in a bounceback win.   

THE PICK: KC-2 ½  

Sunday November 5^th, 2023 1:00pm

Minnesota Vikings (4-4), (5-3) ATS, (3-1) AWAY, (4-0) ATS @ Atlanta Falcons (4-4), (4-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                           MINN+4 ½   

LW, MINN lost their QB Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles. He’s out for the season. They still managed to win @GB, 24-10. The DEF for MINN made some nice stops that helped keep GB out of the endzone. But, 62yds rushing for the MINN OFF will not cut it. LW, ATL lost at TENN but Taylor Heinicke replaced Desmond Ridder at QB and tried to make a comeback to no avail before losing 28-23. L9 MINN vs ATL, ATL 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS. MINN 16-4 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. MINN 33-31 ATS AWAY in NOV. MINN 34-22 ATS as a DOG in NOV. MINN 15-6 ATS AWAY off BB SU wins. MINN 0-8 ATS as a non-div DOG after allowing 10<pts. MINN 3-9 ATS after allowing 10<pts vs non-div opp. MINN 13-7 ATS after GB. MINN 14-3 ATS off SU div win vs .600< non-div opp. MINN 4-7 ATS as a ROAD DOG off DD SU win. ATL 28-35-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. ATL 34-33-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. ATL 1-8-1 ATS as a non-div HOME FAV off SU FAV loss. ATL 2-9-1 ATS @HOME off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. ATL 6-17-1 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. Jaren Hall will be starting this week for MINN @QB. Recently acquired QB Joshua Dobbs will probably start next week but without Cousins, MINN season may go south. For ATL, Heinicke is actually an upgrade from Ridder who was having major turnover issues. Heinicke won games in WASH and brings an up spirit to whatever teams he plays for. ATL has been good at bouncing back after a loss and this is a golden opportunity for ATL and Heinicke to do so. I’m not crazy about Jaren Hall starting for MINN as Heinicke has so much more experience and knows the OFF for ATL. I like ATL laying the points here as ATL should win by a td. MINN #31 RUSH OFF vs ATL #14 RUSH DEF. MINN will try to run the ball to take some pressure off of Hall but to no avail. ATL is better stopping the run than GB. Then the ATL DEF will be waiting for Hall’s passes. Look for some turnovers from MINN as ATL gets a nice HOME win. 

Since ATL WR Drake London has been ruled out for this game, I am changing my pick to MINN. London is ATL’s #1 WR and without him ATL will have a tougher time on OFF.

THE PICK: MINN+4 ½  

Arizona Cardinals (1-7), (4-4) ATS, (0-4) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Cleveland Browns (4-3), (3-4) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS                        ARZ+8

LW, I didn’t like ARZ+8 @HOME vs BALT and there is no way that ARZ should have gotten a cover. The score was 31-15 and all of a sudden BALT was playing prevent DEF. Anyway, final score was BALT 31-24. Then, ARZ trades QB Joshua Dobbs who at least, made the team competitive on some level. ARZ is waiting on QB Kyler Murray to come back from his knee injury but in the meantime, Clayton Tune will be starting this week. LW, CLEV stole defeat from the hands of victory. They were up 20-17 when a deflected ball landed in the hands of SEA and SEA then marched down the field for the winning td, 24-20, all within the last minute of the game. No win and no cover in the final minute. CLEV ran all over SEA but couldn’t close the door. L5 ARZ vs CLEV, ARZ 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS. ARZ 32-35 ATS AWAY in NOV. ARZ 43-47 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CLEV 16-29 ATS @HOME in NOV. CLEV 12-14-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CLEV 25-24-4 ATS since 2003 as a HOME FAV vs non div. CLEV 17-22-1 ATS L40 vs NFC. CLEV 13-12 ATS off non-conf ROAD gm. CLEV 4-10 ATS as a non-conf HOME FAV. CLEV 5-10-1 ATS before BALT. ARZ traded their best chance at being competitive. Dobbs knew the OFF and knew the players. Now you have a QB that has 1 pass attempt in 1 game, Clayton Tune. He will be there until Kyler Murray is ready. I’m going with Tune right now as the starter because Murray is listed out and he would certainly be rusty. Either way, ARZ is facing a CLEV team that should have won last week and is a on a BIG bounceback. CLEV #2 RUSH OFF vs ARZ  #25 RUSH DEF. On this alone, CLEV should win in a blowout. ARZ did have 129yds rushing last week vs BALT but that was in total catchup mode. CLEV needs to keep their run game strong so that no matter who the QB is, Walker or Watson, they know that they have support and don’t have to win it on their own. ARZ is not half as good as SEA so CLEV should romp. Lay the points here as CLEV gets back on the winning track.       

THE PICK: CLEV-8

Los Angeles Rams (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Green Bay Packers (2-5), (1-6) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS                        LAR+3

LW, LAR took it on the chin @DAL, 43-20. LAR Matthew Stafford threw a PICK6 and LAR was playing catchup the whole game. At LAR+6 ½, I at least thought that they would keep it competitive and close. LAR did not and DAL could have scored 50points if they wanted. LW, GB showed the world that QB Jordan Love is not the heir apparent everyone thought he was. He shows major indecision at crucial times and looks as though he is confused in the pocket. GB had chances to make this game more competitive but they did not. L10 GB vs LAR, GB 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS. LAR 7-9 ATS since 2007 before their bye. LAR 8-14-1 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. LAR 17-42-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. LAR 26-33-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAR 29-28-2 ATS L59 as a ROAD DOG. LAR 6-2 ATS AWAY after allowing 35>pts. LAR 11-10-1 ATS AWAY after an SU loss. LAR 13-4 ATS vs <.333 opp. LAR 10-1 ATS AWAY vs <.333 opp. GB 13-8-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. GB 38-41 ATS as a FAV in NOV. GB 32-31 ATS @HOME in NOV. GB 4-9 ATS @HOME after scoring 14<pts vs non-div opp. GB 6-15 ATS as a non-div conf FAV/DOG 3<pts. GB 0-8 ATS off DD SU DIV loss vs non-div opp. GB 9-5 ATS after scoring 14<pts. GB 8-2 ATS @HOME vs NFC WEST. GB 15-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. GB 30-14-1 ATS after DIV gm. GB 22-10 ATS as a FAV after DIV gm. GB 17-6 ATS as a FAV <8pts after DIV gm. GB 8-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU loss. LAR needs to run the ball heavy in this game. GB #26 RUSH DEF. For LAR, RBs Royce Freeman & Darrell Henderson need to get going so that Stafford can drop passes all over vs a suspect GB secondary. LW, GB did stop the MINN run game but they couldn’t stop the MINN pass game. Both teams are on a bounceback but LAR is the better talented team. I like them with the points here. Also, Stafford knows this team and the Stadium so he probably can’t wait to play this game. He returned in 2021 to Lambeau Field but lost vs Rodgers & CO. In 2022, Stafford was injured and didn’t play so there is some redemption on his mind. Take LAR and the points.

At this moment Stafford is questionable due to his injured thumb and is listed as day-to-day. If he plays, my pick is LAR. If he does not, I like GB.

THE PICK: LAR+3

Washington Commanders (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (3-1) ATS @ New England Patriots (2-6), (2-6) ATS (1-3) HOME, (1-3) ATS            WASH+3 ½  

LW, WASH played well @HOME vs PHILLY. Unfortunately it was PHILLY and they picked apart the WASH secondary. WASH was leading this game 24-17 but PHILLY score 3tds on 3straight possessions to take the lead 38-24 before WASH got a dummy td to make the final 38-31. PHILLY has too many weapons on OFF and WASH couldn’t stop them. LW it wasn’t that NE had such a bad game, it was that MIA is just a much better team. NE QB Mac Jones played a better game but NE has to make the most of their chances. They have RBs Rhamondre Stevenson & Ezekiel Elliott that should be used in a 1-2 punch. This would certainly take pressure off of Mac Jones and eat up clock. L4 WASH vs NE, NE 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS. WASH 14-8 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. WASH 14-5 ATS as a DOG >3pts in 1^st of BB RGs. WASH 32-32 ATS AWAY in NOV. WASH 44-33 ATS as a DOG in NOV. WASH 3-10 ATS after PHILLY. WASH 13-18 ATS off BB SU losses. NE 8-13 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. NE 32-26-2 ATS @HOME in NOV. NE 38-38-3 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NE 15-6 ATS after MIA. NE 14-2 ATS @HOME off div ROAD gm vs non-div opp. NE 19-2 ATS off div RD gm vs non-div opp. All of a sudden, WASH looks like a team that is looking to rebuild. Having traded DE Chase Young to SF & DL Montez Sweat to CHI, WASH has gotten weaker upfront. These guys had a combined 11.5 sacks of the 25 sacks that WASH has this season. With those two WASH wasn’t good vs the run. WASH #21 RUSH DEF. Without these guys NE should be able to have a run game that takes a lot or pressure off of Jones. He should be able to see the field clearer and pick up his receivers. For these reasons alone, I like NE here. NE should win by more than 3pts because they did play better @MIA last week than expected. I thought the score would be closer but MIA is in a different class. NE should get a nice win here as there is pressure on Jones to do better.    

THE PICK: NE-3 ½

Chicago Bears (2-6), (3-5) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ New Orleans Saints (4-4), (3-4-1) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (0-3) ATS                         CHI+7 ½  

NO is coming off a nice comeback win @INDY. INDY was up 17-7 in the 2^nd qtr but then NO decided enough was enough. From that moment on, NO outscored INDY 31-10 to win the game 38-27. NO QB Derek Carr had a decent game but the run game for NO rushed 161yds, 3tds on 36 carries. However, the NO DEF gave up 164yds rushing & 11td on 24 carries. On SNF, the run game for CHI never got started because they were in a deficit of 17-0 in the 2^nd qtr and the CHI game plan went out the window. CHI QB Tyson Bagent came back to Earth with a game that was nothing to write about. He should just chalk it up to experience. LAC ended up winning 30-13 and it wasn’t even that close. L9 CHI vs NO, CHI 3-6 SU & 3-4-2 ATS. CHI 9-9-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. CHI 40-28-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. CHI 44-35-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CHI 9-4 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NO 39-31-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. NO 32-31-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. NO 17-7 ATS L24 vs NFC NORTH. NO 14-7 ATS off SU DOG win. NO 9-11 @HOME off DD SU win. NO 3-8 ATS off DD SU win vs <.500 non-div opp. NO 10-26 ATS vs opp off SU loss 14>pts. This is the stat that has me feeling that CHI keeps it close. CHI #6 RUSH OFF vs NO # 15 RUSH DEF. The run game for CHI has to get going so that QB Tyson Bagent doesn’t feel like he has to win this game all by himself. That is probably how he felt last week vs LAC when CHI was down early. The DEF for CHI has to make some plays and can’t get behind like they did vs LAC. They need to take control like they did vs LV. NO has a lot of talent on paper but, sometimes they disappear in games. Also, Carr has those happy feet and he tends to get nervous and then make mistakes. I think NO wins by a hair and CHI keeps it close after being blown out last week. Another factor why I like CHI, CHI #3 RUSH DEF. The CHI DEF will stop the run and that means Carr has to win it by himself. He is not that type of guy and when pressured he falters. I have this strange feeling that CHI keeps it close. The addition of DE Montez Sweat says something because he is auditioning for his next contract. Don’t be surprised if he does some damage in this game. Take CHI and the points here.  

THE PICK: CHI+7 ½

Seattle Seahawks (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Baltimore Ravens (6-2), (5-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                                SEA+5 ½  

LW, I liked CLEV+3 @SEA but CLEV couldn’t close the door and a deflected pass ended up being intercepted by SEA. SEA then turned it into a td with :38, which made the score and the final score 24-20. SEA was very lucky but the SEA DEF sacked CLEV QB PJ Walker 3x, intercepted him 2x and recovered a fumble 1x. All that turned into 14pts by SEA. The DEF for SEA is looking better. LW, BALT let ARZ think they had hope. BALT was -8 ½ @ARZ and I liked my chances. Well, BALT was in control for most of the game but with the game at BALT 31-15 and going into the last 2minutes, the cover roof fell off for BALT. ARZ scored a td, missed the 2pt conversion but recovered the onside kick. Then ARZ kicked a fg which made the score 31-24 and blew the cover for BALT. ARZ almost made a miraculous comeback but didn’t recover the next onside kick. It ain’t over til it’s over. L4 SEA vs BALT, SEA 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. SEA 29-28 ATS AWAY in NOV. SEA 26-23 ATS as a DOG in NOV. SEA 1-6 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts vs >.500 opp. SEA 1-5 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts vs .650>opp. SEA 16-3-1 ATS as a DOG off SUATS win. SEA 7-3 ATS as a DOG off non-conf HOME gm. SEA 5-11-1 ATS as a non-conf ROAD DOG 7<pts. SEA 9-0 ATS as a DOG <7pts off SU win vs opp off BB SU wins. BALT 7-8-2 ATS 1NL in 1^st of BB HGs. BALT 34-29-4 ATS @HOME in NOV. BALT 41-32-4 ATS as a FAV in NOV. BALT 16-19-1 ATS L36 vs NFC. BALT 10-4 ATS before CLEV. BALT 13-30-2 ATS @HOME off non-div gm. BALT 6-9 ATS vs non-div opp off BB SUATS wins. BALT 10-16 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. Is SEA for real? Their two losses were vs @CINNCY & LAR. They did beat @DET but their other wins have been CAR, @NYG, ARZ & CLEV. Not at all playoff teams. This is a real test for SEA to show that they are for real. SEA #8 RUSH DEF. CLEV did rush for 155yds on 40 carries but didn’t get the yardage they needed most at the end of the game. With the addition of DL Leonard Williams from the NYG, this will shore up their run DEF. Pus, NYG are paying most of Williams salary, so it almost a free audition for SEA. SEA has to stop the run game for BALT. BALT likes to run and they need to put it all on the arm of BALT QB Lamar Jackson. If ever SEA needed big play here, SEA SS Jamal Adams needs to step it up. He hasn’t done much this season. This is a big game for SEA QB Geno Smith to show that SEA has turned the corner. I like BALT winning this game with a fg at the end of the game but, I like SEA with the points.    

THE PICK: SEA+5 ½

Tamp Bay Buccaneers (3-4), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Houston Texans (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                         TB+2 ½  

LW on TNF, TB dug themselves a hole and played catchup all night to no avail losing 24-18. The only one good thing is that TB covered as I predicted. TB QB Baker Mayfield didn’t turn the ball over but the OFF didn’t get in the endzone enough to make this a game. BUFF set the tone and played with TB all night. TB didn’t stop the BUFF run game and QB Josh Allen was able to run for 41yds on 7carries. The TB secondary didn’t stop BUFF either and Allen was 31/40. HOU couldn’t get the job done last week @CAR. You can’t lose to a winless team. HOU is better than that and they stopped the CAR run game cold at 44yds. The HOU DEF sacked CAR QB Bryce Young 6x but created 0turnovers. In the end, it was a last second fg that beat HOU, 15-13. HOU should learn from this game. L4 TB vs HOU, HOU 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS. TB 10-15-2 ATS in 2^nd of BB RGs. TB 48-30-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. TB 40-30-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. TB 28-28-2 ATS AWAY vs non-div. TB 9-4-2 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU FAV loss. TB 6-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG 8<pts vs opp off SU ROAD FAV loss. HOU 14-13-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. HOU 17-19 ATS @HOME in NOV. HOU 7-4-1 ATS L12 off FAV loss. HOU 24-15-3 ATS as a FAV <9pts vs .600<  opp. HOU 2-11 ATS vs non-conf opp off SU loss. HOU is playing better than anyone expected. However, they had their chances last week @CAR but came away with 2tds and a missed 2pt conversion. The HOU DEF is good vs the run, HOU #11 RUSH DEF but so is TB #11 RUSH DEF.  HOU QB CJ Stroud is better than Baker Mayfield because he is still learning. Mayfield knows better and forces the ball in anyway. HOU needs to get their run game going and set the tone so that Mayfield makes mistakes. A back and forth game like the one last week for HOU just spells disaster at the end of the game. HOU will bounce back. TB is just terrible. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: HOU-2 ½

Sunday November 5^th, 2023 4:00pm

Indianapolis Colts (3-5), (4-4) ATS, (2-1) AWAY, (2-1) ATS @ Carolina Panthers (1-6), (1-5-1) ATS, (1-2) HOME, (1-1-1) ATS                  CAR+2 ½  

OK, so now CAR finally got their 1^st win. It was hard fought win as they won in the closing seconds vs HOU 15-13. CAR had a lousy 44yds rushing and QB Bryce Young was sacked 6x but CAR seemed to be in this game right up until they kicked that winning fg. HOU had chances to win but, blew it. HOU rushed for 110yds and CAR had no answer for their run game. INDY @HOME was outmanned by NO. NO rolled over INDY by air and ground piling up 511yds of OFF. INDY had a 17-7 lead in the 2^nd qtr but NO just got going. NO scored 2tds on 2straight possessions and INDY played catchup the rest of the way losing 38-27. INDY should be embarrassed and should make adjustments for this game. They cannot lose to a team that is 1-6. L4 INDY vs CAR, INDY 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. INDY 9-11 ATS L20 as a ROAD FAV. INDY 9-10-3 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. INDY 33-34-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. INDY 40-21-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. INDY 13-1 ATS as a non-div RAOD FAV vs <.500 opp. INDY 12-3 ATS as a FAV after allowing 35>pts. INDY 8-0 ATS as a non-div ROAD FAV off BB SU losses. INDY 16-9-1 ATS off SU FAV loss. INDY 21-16 ATS as a FAV 3<pts. INDY 20-7-1 ATS off DD ATS loss. INDY 13-1 ATS off DD ATS loss vs opp off SU win. INDY 12-3 ATS off SU FAV loss vs non-div opp. CAR 12-12-2 ATS L26 as a HOME DOG. CAR 37-27 ATS @HOME in NOV. CAR 29-32-1 ATS as a DOG in NOV. CAR 9-12 ATS in 2^nd of BB HGs. CAR 10-2-1 ATS before TNF. CAR 8-2 ATS off SU HOME DOG win. CAR 12-7 ATS off SU DOG win. CAR16-6 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. CAR 10-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses (last as a FAV). INDY is desperate for a win. They have lost three in a row and Minshew needs to make better decisions. Hey, that is why he is a backup. In his last 3games 5INTS & 5 fumbles, oh goody! He has not learned to take what the DEF gives him but his HC or whoever, has to get it ingrained in his head to do this and let the RBs do their job so it is not all on his shoulders. QB Anthony Richardson is gone for the season so there isn’t any looking over the shoulder but c’mon, you have to beat CAR, sorry. INDY #9 RUSH OFF vs CAR #29 RUSH DEF. I see INDY RBs Jonathan Taylor & Zack Moss running wild here, maybe for over 200yds & a couple of tds. Plus, the DEF for INDY has to take over this game. They need to make some stops like they did in their wins. CAR has WR Adam Thielen and after that nothing. Take him out of the equation and Bryce Young will have no one to throw to, DJ Clark maybe. The INDY has given up 37, 39 & 38 pts in the last three games. They need to put a clamp on it now. Lay the points here as INDY is desperate for a win.

THE PICK: INDY-2 ½

New York Giants (2-6), (2-5-1) ATS, (1-3) AWAY, (1-3) ATS @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-5), (3-5) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS                        NYG+2 ½

LW, NYG QB Tyrod Taylor gets injured and Tommy DeVito steps in. The long story short is that NYG had -9yds total in passing with 4 sacks vs NYJ. NYG rushed 52x for 203yds and 1td with RB Saquon Barkley rushing 36x for 128yds & 1td. But, even he couldn’t save NYG. The game itself was dreadful and NYG could have won it if their K Graham Gano didn’t miss 2fgs through the game. This game was awful on both sides and NYG had a chance to win but lost in OT, 13-10. On MNF, if DET hadn’t gotten in their own way, the score would have been DET 50-7. But DET turned the ball over 3x and kicked 4fgs & missed 1fg. LV QB Jimmy Garoppolo was 10/21, 126yds 1INT. He was sacked 6x and at times looked like a statue. The DEF for DET controlled the line of scrimmage. Jimmy G couldn’t get the ball to open receivers and RBs amassed a measly 68yds in catchup mode. The final score was DET 26-14 but in reality it wasn’t that close because DET had almost 500 yds of OFF. L5 NYG vs LV, NYG 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS. NYG 8-13-1 ATS in 1^st of BB RGs. NYG 24-34-2 ATS as  DOG in NOV. NYG 24-28-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. NYG 5-7-1 ATS as a non-conf DOG 6<pts. NYG 4-11 ATS after scoring 10<pts. NYG 6-8 ATS before DAL. NYG 26-6 ATS as a ROAD DOG vs opp off SU loss. NYG 12-7 ATS vs .333> non conf opp. LV 8-10 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. LV 24-37-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. LV 20-35-2 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LV 8-10-1 ATS @HOME off SU loss >10pts. LV 7-15-2 ATS @HOME vs NFC. LV 1-10 ATS as a FAV off SU loss vs <.500 opp. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast. LW, NYG HC Brain Daboll made a couple of blunders that snatched defeat from the hands of victory vs NYJ. LV is atrocious because they have a HC that doesn’t deserve to be a HC and on top of it, doesn’t know what he is doing. On paper, LV has a lot of talent but it does not translate into good football on SUN. Jimmy G is a terrible QB. He may win games but, it is in spite of him, not because of him. NYG QB Daniel Jones is no better and because he is coming off an injury and this is his first game back, he will be worse than usual and that means that the LV DEF will be pumped and will be looking to tee off on him. However, besides DE Maxx Crosby, there is no one else for the NYG O-LINE to worry about. Jones will certainly make mistakes and possibly RB Barkley will be able to bail the NYG OFF out. The only bright spot for NYG is NYG #15 RUSH OFF vs LV #30 RUSH DEF. However, since the firing of HC Josh McDaniels, the Linebacker coach, Antonio Pierce will be the interim HC. This will be tough since McDaniels also called the OFF plays. LV QB Aidan O’Connell has been slated to be the starter as Jimmy G has been benched. The NYG has to step up to rile this guy. LV will be in disarray this week as NYG steals a win.

THE PICK: NYG+2 ½

Dallas Cowboys (5-2), (5-2) ATS, (2-2) AWAY, (2-2) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-1), (5-3) ATS, (3-0) HOME, (1-2) ATS                              DAL+3

LW, DAL beat up LAR, 43-20. It didn’t help LAR that LAR QB Matthew Stafford threw a PICK6 early to make the score, DAL 17-3. This put LAR in catchup mode. It was DAL 33-9 at the half and you could turn your sets off there. DAL did what they had to do and QB Cooper Rush even saw action. Give WASH credit. They played PHILLY tough but it wasn’t meant to be as the WASH secondary was picked apart by PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts for 4tds & 0INTS. PHILLY had a 38-24 lead late in the 4^th qtr when WASH added a dummy td to make the final score 38-31. I liked PHILLY -6 ½ because I felt strongly they would win by at least a td. They did but at one point WASH was leading 24-17 but PHILLY scored tds on 3 straight possessions to blow the game wide open. PHILLY is definitely on a mission and it will be tested this week. L16 DAL @PHILLY, DAL 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. L32 DAL vs PHILLY, ROAD 17-15 ATS. L32 DAL vs PHILLY, FAV 17-15 ATS. L14 DAL vs PHILLY, DAL 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS. DAL 29-29 ATS AWAY in NOV. DAL 22-28 ATS as a DOG in NOV. DAL 29-23 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. DAL 9-19 ATS off SU conf win vs div opp. DAL 8-3 ATS after scoring 35>pts vs opp off BB SU wins. DAL 12-11 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins. DAL 7-3-1 ATS before NYG. DAL 2-7 ATS L8 after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 12-4 ATS since 2007 before their bye. PHILLY 32-26 ATS vs NFC EAST in NOV. PHILLY 33-33-1 ATS @HOME in NOV. PHILLY 43-35-1 ATS as a FAV in NOV. PHILLY 10-6 ATS after WASH. PHILLY 10-1 ATS as a FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 7-0 ATS @HOME w/revenge vs opp off SU win. DAL hasn’t beaten anyone that you could say, that was BIG win. Their two losses were @ARZ & a blowout @SF. PHILLY had one loss @NYJ and they regrouped nicely. What PHILLY does, is they toy with you, let you think you have a shot, then they bury you. Last week @WASH, PHILLY let WASH play around until they ran out of gas. Then PHILLY stopped them cold and took the lead for good. Here is why I like PHILLY BIG in this game. PHILLY #3 TOT OFF w/#7 RUSH OFF & #7 PASS OFF. DAL has the #3 TOT DEF but again, who have they played. PHILLY has it on both sides of the ball. This is a division game and PHILLY will be ready. I would like to see PHILLY WR Julio Jones get more passes because that also would send the DAL DEF for a loop. They are not expecting that and he is the perfect target. Plus newly acquired S Kevin Byard should join the party as well. Lay the points here as PHILLY should win by 10.

THE PICK: PHILLY-3

Sunday November 5^th, 2023 8:20pm

Buffalo Bills (5-3), (3-5) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-3), (4-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME (2-1) ATS                                    BUFF+3

LW, CINNCY was in control @SF. The DEF for CINNCY has stepped up and made plays which put the game in the hands of their OFF to do what they want. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow looks mighty comfortable knowing that he can rely on his many weapons to help him move down the field. CINNCY was never trailing @SF and won 31-17 with the help of some turnovers which helped them take time off the clock and score another td. BUFF won @HOME on TNF 24-18. I knew BUFF was desperate for a win but so was TB. TB just doesn’t have the personnel to stop a BUFF. But I knew the spread BUFF-8 ½ was just too big and that BUFF would probably just win by less than a td. I was right. L10 BUFF vs CINNCY, BUFF 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS. BUFF 9-7 ATS AWAY on SNF. BUFF 9-6 ATS as a DOG on SNF. BUFF 29-33-2 ATS as a DOG in NOV. BUFF 26-35-2 ATS AWAY in NOV. BUFF 8-5 ATS after TNF. BUFF 10-15-1 ATS as a non-div DOG 3<pts. BUFF 4-11-1 ATS as a non-div ROAD DOG 3<pts. BUFF 10-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. CINNCY 0-2 ATS as a FAV on SNF. CINNCY 0-1 ATS @HOME on SNF. CINNCY 0-2-1 ATS vs non-div on SNF. CINNCY 13-7-1 ATS in 1^st of BB HGs. CINNCY 24-19 ATS as a FAV in NOV. CINNCY 35-34 ATS @HOME in NOV. CINNCY 24-7 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 14-3 ATS as a non div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 14-1 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 7-10 ATS vs opp w/rest. Both of these teams give up significant ground yardage but seem to make stops when they need them. Right now, Burrow is playing better than Allen by not turning the ball over. He is also reading the DEF better because he knew when to take off vs SF as opposed to sitting back and getting sacked. Allen thinks of himself as a runner and sometimes takes that extra chance and gives up the ball. Last season both of these teams were scheduled to play each other @CINNCY but that game was suspended due to the injury of CB Damar Hamlin. Hamlin has returned but has played in 3games and started 1game. He has been more of a cheerleader than a player. CINNCY will use a spotter in the secondary to make sure that Allen doesn’t take off. Lay the points here as CINNCY will take the game that was originally scheduled @HOME last season. This should be a good game but I like Burrow at work.    

THE PICK: CINNCY-3

Monday September 10^th, 2023 8:15pm

Los Angeles Chargers (3-4), (3-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ New York Jets (4-3), (4-2-1) ATS, (2-2) HOME, (3-1) ATS                        NYJ+3

LW, NYJ barely got by NYG. Were the NYG that good or were the NYJ that bad? NYJ punted 11x. NYJ QB Zach Wilson looked horrible until the last 24 seconds of the game where he drove the team for a tying fg. In OT, NYJ got very lucky with a pass interference call that set them up for the winning fg. NYJ won 13-10. On SNF, LAC @HOME beat CHI 30-13. LAC was helped by 2INTS by CHI that stopped their drives. I thought CHI+8 ½ would not win but just keep it close considering they were outclassed by KC the week before. LAC QB Justin Herbert had his way with CHI passing 31/40, 298yds, 3tds, 0INTS and no sacks. He spread the ball around to 8different receivers. L8 LAC vs NYJ, LAC 6-2 SU but 3-4-1 ATS. LAC 4-5 ATS as a ROAD FAV on MNF. LAC 26-36 ATS as a FAV in NOV. LAC 36-26-1 ATS AWAY in NOV. LAC 5-12-1 ATS AWAY vs AFC EAST. LAC 12-15-2 ATS L29 as a ROAD FAV. NYJ 10-5 ATS as a HOME DOG on MNF. NYJ 25-25-1 ATS L51 as a HOME DOG. NYJ 4-7 ATS since 2007 after an SU OT win. NYJ 37-32 ATS as a DOG in NOV. NYJ 33-33 ATS @HOME in NOV. NYJ 7-1-1 ATS @HOME vs AFC WEST. NYJ likes to run the ball but they will have a difficult time of it on MNF. LAC #6 RUSH DEF. This will put it all on the shoulders of QB Wilson who has shown he can’t handle the pressure. Herbert has to be careful because the NYJ secondary is very good. He must spread the ball around and check receivers as long as he has time. This game could be close or LAC could run away with it. NYJ are coming off a frustrating OT win and may be tired. The O-LINE for LAC has to do their job. In the four losses for LAC, Herbert was sacked 12x. In the three wins, he was sacked 3x. See a connection? Also, the LAC D-LINE has to create some turnovers. LAC #7 TOT OFF vs NYJ #14 TOT DEF. Lay the points here.

THE PICK: LAC-3